using marketing to drive long-term planning · atria senior living, inc. louisville, ky 153 17,958...
TRANSCRIPT
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LeadingAge Maryland 2016
Using Marketing to Drive Long-Term Planning
April 27, 2016
loveandcompany.com
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Presenter
Rob Love Love & Company President/CEO 27 years in Love
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My Plan for Today
❖ What does the future look like? ❖ How can marketing help you prepare for
the future? ▪ Target market ▪ Product ▪ Pricing ▪ Performance Measurement ▪ Positioning
❖ Case studies ❖ Key takeaways
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What does the future look like?
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Brief Dip Before the Dramatic Increase
Today’s 82-year old was born in 1934 and is of the Silent Generation.
The leading edge of the baby boomers turns 70 in 2016; will hit 75 in 2021.Today’s 82-year old
was born in 1934 and is of the Silent Generation.
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Demographics Define the MarketForecasted U.S. Seniors Population (1980 to 2040)
(Millions)Increasing Demand
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
(In M
illions)
65 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85+
We Are Here
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“I ROB THE BANKS BECAUSE THAT’S WHERE THE MONEY IS!”- William “Slick Willie” Sutton
Region2010
Population
Absolute Population
Change, 2000-2010
Percent Population
Change, 2000-2010
U.S. 309,050,816 26,884,972 9.5%
Northeast 55,417,311 1,753,978 3.3%
Midwest 66,972,887 2,480,998 3.0%
South 114,555,744 14,318,924 14.3%
West 72,256,183 8,774,852 13.8%
Source: U. S. Department of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration
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Will prospects be able to afford CCRCs in the future?
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Summary of Selected Research Findings
❖ About 1/3 of boomers are well-positioned to meet their financial needs in retirement.
❖ About 40% are not likely to be able to meet their financial needs on retirement.
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Interesting Research Findings
❖ The single greatest thing baby boomers can do to get their savings rate back on track is to work approximately two years longer. If boomers increased the median retirement age from 62.6, where it is today, to 64.1 by 2015, the number of households unprepared for retirement would drop from 69 to 40 percent.
McKinsey Global Institute, 2008 ❖ 65% of baby boomer workers plan to continue
working past age 65 or do not plan to retire. 15th Annual Transamerica Retirement Survey of Workers, April 2014
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United States Demographics
Households Age 75+Income 2015 2020 # Change % ChangeBelow $35,000 7,686,000 8,038,000 352,000 4.6%
$35,000 to $74,999 3,593,000 4,000,000 407,000 11.3%
$75,000+ 1,810,000 2,298,000 488,000 26.9%
14% of 75+ Pop
16% of 75+ Pop
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United States Demographics
Households Age 65 to 74Income 2015 2020 # Change % ChangeBelow $35,000 6,135,000 6,900,000 765,000 12.5%
$35,000 to $74,999 5,793,000 6,892,000 1,100,000 19.0%
$75,000+ 4,713,000 6,403,000 1,689,000 35.8%
28% of 65 to 74
Pop
32% of 65 to 74
Pop
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Psychographics of the Coming Consumer
❖ Less subject to peer influence and status issues ❖ Less responsive to embellished claims ❖ Less sensitive to price, more sensitive to value ❖ Greater interest in having choice ❖ Greater interest in intergenerational
interaction ❖ Greater interest in well-being and supporting
programming ❖ Greater interest in walkability ❖ Greater comfort with technology
Source: “Making Innovation Work,” Point Forward Solutions, 2015
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The Spectrum of Choices for Seniors
75+
60+ 70+ 85+ 90+
Preventative Long-term CareHospital
AACs Continuing Care Retirement Community
Senior Center Services
Geriatric Assessment &
Case ManagementSenior Health
& Wellness Center
Continuing Care at Home
Assisted Living
Respite Care PACE
Programs
Memory Support Skilled Nursing
Rehab
Subacute
*Community Based
Services
Wellness Program
Case Management
Independent Living Adult
Day Services
Memory Support Assisted Living
Home Health Care
Skilled Nursing
Hospice
Transitional Medicare Acute
*Transportation; Information/Referral; Counseling; Meals-on-Wheels; Integrated Day Care; Homemaker/Chore/Housekeeping; and Emergency Response System
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❖ Within a regional or metro-area market, the ability to offer solutions for older adults across the age, income and services continuum ▪ Market Rate IL with a hospitality focus ▪ Moderate Independent Living ▪ Assisted living ▪ Memory care ▪ Skilled nursing, post-acute ▪ Skilled nursing, Medicaid ▪ Affordable Housing ▪ HCBS (home health, home care, concierge, PACE,
Adult Day) ▪ Maximization of partnerships in the region
The Potential Not-For-Profit Full-Service Senior Living Model
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Defining the For-Profit Providers
Entry Fee Communities • Few for-profit entry-fee Life Plan
Community operators
IL/AL Communities • Significant growth post-recession • New Regional Operators (est. 20%)
Memory Care • Often with AL and IL
Rental Communities • Majority of the for-profit
Life Plan Community inventory
Freestanding AL • Significant growth post-recession
Skilled Nursing – Post Acute • Geared toward rehab and post-acute sector
Skilled Nursing - Medicaid • Medicaid-oriented providers
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Pace of for-profit growth – is it showing signs of a slowdown? Senior Housing Construction by Profit Status; MAP31
4Q05 – 2Q15
Num
ber o
f Pro
pert
ies
Und
er
Con
stru
ctio
n
0
55
110
165
220
Not-For-Profit
For-ProfitPrimarily free-standing
AL/MC or IL/AL
Source: NIC MAP® Data & Analysis Service
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15 Largest Senior Living OwnersCompany Headquarters Properties Units
Brookdale Senior Living Inc. Brentwood, TN 976 82,356
Ventas Inc. Chicago, IL 785 69,708
Health Care REIT Inc. Toledo, OH 611 59,786
HCP Inc. Irvine, CA 491 49,731
Senior Housing Properties Trust Newton, MA 297 34,772
Boston Capital Boston, MA 486 29,741
NorthStar Healthcare New York, NY 209 17,514
Senior Lifestyle Corporation Chicago, IL 176 16,685
New Senior Investment Group New York, NY 124 14,838
Holiday Retirement Lake Oswego, OR 114 13,768
Harrison Street Real Estate Capital Chicago, IL 107 12,359
National Health Investors (NHI) Murfreesboro, TN 103 8,678
Highridge Costa Companies Gardena, CA 84 8,402
ACTS Retirement-Life Communities West Point, PA 21 7,982
Enlivant Chicago, IL 177 7,829
Source: 2015 American Seniors Housing Association, “ASHA 50”; Note- properties w/ >30% SNF excluded
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15 Largest Senior Living OperatorsCompany Headquarters Properties Units
Brookdale Senior Living Inc. Brentwood, TN 1,138 110,443
Holiday Retirement Lake Oswego, OR 308 37,657
LCS Des Moines, IA 123 32,172
Five Star Senior Living Newton, MA 272 31,267
Sunrise Senior Living, LLC McLean, VA 245 22,561
Erickson Living Baltimore, MD 17 20,517
Senior Lifestyle Corporation Chicago, IL 201 20,334
Atria Senior Living, Inc. Louisville, KY 153 17,958
Capital Senior Living Corporation Dallas, TX 118 11,632
Elmcroft Senior Living Louisville, KY 101 8,874
ACTS Retirement-Life Communities West Point, PA 21 7,982
Enlivant Chicago, IL 177 7,829
Watermark Retirement Communities, Inc. Tucson, AZ 38 7,483
Meridian Senior Living Hickory, NC 130 7,026
American House Senior Living Communities Bloomfield Hills, MI 61 7,002
Source: 2015 American Seniors Housing Association, “ASHA 50”; Note- properties w/ >30% SNF excluded
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Senior Living Sector: For-Profit
Brightview Senior Living (The Shelter Group), Baltimore, MD
❖ 56 Communities in 8 States CT, MA, MD, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VA
❖ 6,969 Total Units ▪ 55+ Community ▪ Independent Living ▪ Assisted Living ▪ Skilled Nursing ▪ Memory Care
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Senior Living Sector: For-ProfitMassachusetts Brightview Concord River, Billerica Brightview Danvers Brightview Country Club Heights, Woburn New Pond Village, Walpole Brightview Arlington Brightview Canton Brightview North Andover
Maryland Brightview Avondell, Bel Air Brightview Bel Air, Bel Air Brightview Catonsville Brightview White Marsh, Baltimore Brightview Mays Chapel Ridge, Timonium Brightview Westminster Ridge, Westminster Brightview Towson Brightview Perry Hall, Nottingham Brightview Rolling Hills, Catonsville Brightview South River Edgewater Brightview Fallsgrove, Rockville Brightview Severna Park
Connecticut Evergreen Woods, North Bradford Brightview on New Canaan, Norwalk
Rhode Island Brightview Commons, Wakefield
New Jersey Brightview Mount Laurel Brightview Woodbury Lake Brightview Greentree, Malton Brightview Tenafly Brightview Randolph
Pennsylvania Brightview East Norriton The Manor at York Town, Jamison
New York Brightview Tarrytown
Virginia Brightview Baldwin Park, Staunton Brightview Great Falls Brightview Woodburn, Annandale
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Senior Living Sector: For-Profit
Brookdale Senior Living, Brentwood, TN (includes Emeritus Senior Living)
❖ 1,140 Communities in 48 States All States except AK, DC, HI, SD
❖ 6,969 Total Units ▪ 55+ Community ▪ Independent Living ▪ Assisted Living ▪ Skilled Nursing ▪ Memory Care
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Senior Living Sector: For-ProfitBrookdale Senior Living, Brentwood, TN (includes Emeritus Senior Living) Georgia
Brookdale Augusta Brookdale Buford Brookdale Dunwoody, Atlanta Brookdale Lawrenceville Brookdale Newnan Brookdale North Augusta Brookdale South Lee Buford Brookdale Stone Mountain Brookdale Sweetwater Creek, Lithia Springs Brookdale Vinings, Atlanta Sheridan Place, Dublin
South Carolina Brookdale Chandler Place, Rock Hill Brookdale Ebenezer Road, Rock Hill Brookdale North Augusta Brookdale Spring Arbor, Rock Hill Homewood At Cleveland Park, Greenville Horizon Bay Charleston Sterling House Of Central Sterling House Of Greenville Sterling House of Greenwood Sterling House Of Harbison, Columbia Sterling House Of Sumter Sterling House On Parklane, Columbia
Maryland The Bellavita At Scarborough The Solana Olney
Delaware Brookdale Hockessin Brookdale White Chapel, Newark Brookdale Senior Living
West Virginia Bridgeport Campus, Bridgeport
Virginia Abingdon Place Of Danville Brookdale Gayton Terrace, Richmond Brookdale Imperial Plaza, Richmond Brookdale Midlothian Brookdale West End Richmond Chambrel At Williamsburg Clare Bridge Of Virginia Beach Estates Gayton Terrace, Richmond
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Senior Living Sector: For-ProfitBrookdale Senior Living, Brentwood, TN (cont’d.) (includes Emeritus Senior Living) North Carolina Brookdale Carriage Club Providence, Charlotte Brookdale Charlotte Easat, Charlotte Brookdale Charlotte South, Charlotte Brookdale Churchill, Mooresville Brookdale Concord Parkway, Concord Brookdale Concord South, Concord Brookdale Cotswold, Charlotte Brookdale East Broad, Statesville Brookdale Monroe Square, Monroe Brookdale New Hope, Gastonia Brookdale Peachtree, Statesville Brookdale Robinwood, Gastonia Brookdale Salisbury Brookdale South Park, Charlotte Brookdale Union, Gastonia Brookdale Union Park, Monroe Brookdale Weddington Park, Matthews
North Carolina (cont’d) Burlington Manor, Burlington Carolina House Of Asheboro Carolina House Of Cary Carolina House Of Chapel Hill Carolina House Of Durham Carolina House Of Lexington Carolina House Of Morehead City Carolina House Of Pinehurst Carolina House Of Reidsville Carolina House Of Smithfield Carolina House Of Wake Forest Clare Bridge Of Burlington Clare Bridge Of Cary Clare Bridge Of Chapel Hill Clare Bridge Of High Point Clare Bridge Of Wilmington
North Carolina (cont’d) Clare Bridge Of Winston-Salem Eden Estates, Eden Greensboro Manor, Greensboro Greensboro Place, Greensboro Heritage Of Raleigh Hickory Manor, Hickory High Point Manor, High Point High Point Place, High Point Lenoir Park, Lenoir Reynolda Park, Winston-Salem Skeet Club Manor, High Point Sterling House Of Goldsboro Sterling House Of Hickory Sterling House Of New Bern Sterling House Of Rocky Mount Sterling House Of Shelby Wynwood Of Chapel Hill
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Senior Living Sector: For-ProfitEmeritus Senior Living, Brentwood, TN (part of Brookdale Senior Living) Georgia Emeritus At Flint River, Macon Emeritus At Heritage Hills, Columbus Emeritus At Peachtree Village, Commerce
South Carolina Emeritus At Anderson Place Campus Emeritus At Bellaire Place, Greenville Emeritus At Conway Place Emeritus At Countryside Campus, Easley Emeritus At Greenville Emeritus At Hawthorne Inn At Hilton Head Island Emeritus At Hawthorne Inn Greenville Emeritus At Laurel Gardens, Florence Emeritus At Lexington Gardens, West Columbia Emeritus At Palm Court, Hilton Head Island Emeritus At Palm Village, Hilton Head Island Emeritus At Skylyn Place Campus, Spartanburg
North Carolina Emeritus At Greensboro Emeritus At The Pines of Goldsboro
Maryland Emeritus At Hagerstown Emeritus At Pikesville Emeritus At Potomac Emeritus At Towson, Baltimore Emeritus At Westminster Emeritus At Woodward Estates, Bowie
Virginia Emeritus At Arlington Emeritus At Cave Spring, Roanoke Emeritus At Danville Emeritus At Harrisonburg Emeritus At Lake Ridge, Woodbridge Emeritus At Manassas Emeritus At Ridgewood Gardens, Salem Emeritus At Roanoke Emeritus At Staunton Emeritus At Sterling Emeritus At Wilburn Gardens, Fredricksburg
West Virginia Emeritus At Charleston Gardens
Delaware Emeritus At Cape May, Cape May Court House Emeritus At Dover
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Senior Living Sector: For-Profit
Sunrise Senior Living, McLean, VA
❖ 248 Communities in 31 States AZ, CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, FL, GA, IL, IN,KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MO, NE, NV, NJ, NY, NC, OH, PA, TN, TX, UT, VA, WA
❖ 25,286 Total Units ▪ 55+ Community ▪ Independent Living ▪ Assisted Living ▪ Skilled Nursing ▪ Memory Care
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Senior Living Sector: For-Profit
Sunrise Senior Living, McLean, VAGeorgia Brighton Gardens of Buckhead, Atlanta Brighton Gardens of Dunwoody Sunrise at Buckhead, Atlanta Sunrise of Decatur Sunrise at East Cobb, Marietta Sunrise at Five Forks, Lilburn Sunrise of Huntcliff Summit I, Sandy Springs Sunrise at Huntcliff Summit II, Sandy Springs Sunrise at Ivey Ridge, Alpharetta Sunrise of Johns Creek Sunrise at Webb Gin, Lawrenceville
North Carolina Brighton Gardens of Charlotte Brighton Gardens of Greensboro Brighton Gardens of Raleigh Brighton Gardens of Winston-Salem Sunrise of Cary Sunrise at North Hills, Raleigh Sunrise of Raleigh Sunrise on Providence, Charlotte
Virginia Braddock Glen, Fairfax The Colonnades, Charlottesville The Fairfax at Belvoir Woods Sunrise at Bluemont Park, Arlington Sunrise at Bon Air, Richmond Sunrise at Countryside, Potomac Falls Sunrise at Mount Vernon, Alexandria Sunrise at Reston Town Center, Reston Sunrise of Alexandria Sunrise of Arlington
Virginia (cont’d) Sunrise of Fairfax Sunrise at Fair Oaks, Fairfax Sunrise of Falls Church Sunrise at George Mason, Fairfax Sunrise of Hunter Mill, Oakton Sunrise of Leesburg Sunrise of McClean Sunrise of Richmond Sunrise of Springfield The Jefferson, Arlington
Delaware Sunrise of Wilmington
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Senior Living Sector: For-Profit
Sunrise Senior Living, McLean, VAPennsylvania Sunrise of Abington Sunrise of Blue Bell Sunrise of Dresher Sunrise of Exton Sunrise of Granite Run, Media Sunrise of Haverford Sunrise of Lafayette Hill Sunrise of Lower Makefield, Morrisville Sunrise of McCandless, Pittsburgh Sunrise of Newtown Square Surise of Paoli, Malvern Sunrise of Presque Isle Bay, Erie The Quandrangle, Haverford Sunrise of Upper St. Clair Sunrise of Westtown, West Chester
Maryland Sunrise of Annapolis Bedford Court, Silver Spring Brighton Gardens of Columbia Brighton Gardens of Friendship Heights, Chevy Chase Brighton Gardens of Tuckerman Lane, North Bethesda Sunrise of Columbia Sunrise at Fox Hill, Bethesda Sunrise of Frederick Maplewood Park Place, Bethesda Sunrise at Montgomery Village Sunrise of Pikesville Sunrise of Rockville Sunrise of Severna Park Sunrise of Silver Spring
District of Columbia Sunrise on Connecticut Avenue, Washington
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Senior Living Sector: For-Profit
Five Star Quality Care, Newton, MA
❖ 260+ Communities in 30 States AL, AZ, CA, CO, DE, FL, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MD, MA, MN, MS, MO, NE, NV, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OH, PA, SC, TN, TX, WY
❖ 24,575 Total Units ▪ 55+ Community ▪ Independent Living ▪ Assisted Living ▪ Skilled Nursing ▪ Memory Care
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Senior Living Sector: For-Profit
Five Star Quality Care, Newton, MAGeorgia Morningside of Macon Morningside of Evans Savannah Square Habersham House, Savannah Marsh View Senior Living, Savannah Morningside of Columbus Morningside of Conyers Morningside of Athens Palms (Gardens) of Lake Spivey, Jonesboro Eastside Gardens, Snellville Northlake Gardens, Tucker Morningside of Gainesville Gracemont, Cumming Cameron Hall of Canton Cameron Hall of Ellijay Morningside of Dalton
Pennsylvania Tiffany Court at Kingston Clarks Summit Senior Living Exton Senior Living NewSeasons at New Britain, Chalfont The Devon Senior Living Glen Mills Senior Living Mount Vernon of Elizabeth Overlook Green, Whitehall Mount Vernon of South Park Franciscan Manor, Beaver Falls
Delaware Somerford House & Place Newark Millcroft, Newark Foulk Manor South. Wilmington Foulk Manor North, Wilmington
Maryland Heartland Assisted Living at Severna Park Somerford Place Annapolis HeartFields Assisted Living At Bowie Somerford Place Columbia Heartlands Senior Living Village at Ellicott City Aspenwood Senior Living Community, Silver Spring Five Start Premier Residences of Chevy Chase HeartFields Assisted Living At Easton HeartFields Assisted Living At Frederick Somerford House & Place at Frederick Somerford House & Place Hagerstown
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Senior Living Sector: For-ProfitFive Star Quality Care, Newton, MASouth Carolina Morningside of Lexington The Haven in the Summit, Columbia Morningside of Orangeburg Morningside of Camden Morningside of Sumter Morningside of Greenwood Morningside of Lancaster Morningside of Hartsville Morningside of Rock Hill Ashley River Plantation, Charleston Morningside of Anderson The Haven in the Village at Chanticleer, Greenville The Legacy of Anderson Summit Place of Daniel Island, Charleston Summit Place of Beaufort Morningside of Beaufort Sweetgrass Village, Mt. Pleasant Sweetgrass Court, Mt. Pleasant The Palms of Mt. Pleasant Morningside of Georgetown Morningside of Seneca Myrtle Beach Manor Summit Place of North Myrtle Beach, Little River
North Carolina Seasons at Southpoint, Durham HeartFields at Cary Morningside of Raleigh Home Place of Burlington Fox Hollow Senior Living Community, Pinehurst Morningview at Irving Park, Greensboro Carriage House Senior Living Community, Greensboro Parkwood Village & The Landing, Wilson Forest Heights Senior Living Community, Winston-Salem Morningside of Concord The Laurels & The Haven in Highland Creek, Charlotte Summit Place of Mooresville Summit Place of South Park, Charlotte Legacy Heights Senior Living Community, Charlotte The Havens & The Laurels in the Village at Carolina Place, Pineville McCarthy Court, New Bern Home Place of New Bern Morningside of Gastonia Summit Place of Kings Mountain
Virginia Morningside of Charlottesville Morningside of Bellgrade. Midlothian Morningside in the West End, Richmond HeartFields at Fredericksburg Dominion Village at Williamsburg Morningside of Williamsburg Dominion Village at Poquoson Dominion Village at Chesapeake The Talbot on Granby, Norfolk The Reserve at Greenbriar, Chesapeake The Gardens of Virginia Beach
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Conclusions
❖ There is a tremendous pipeline of Americans nearing the traditional age of move-in to a Life Plan Community.
❖ These people will have significantly different expectations for retirement living than the people we have served in the past.
❖ For-profit operators are already investing substantially in preparing for these changes.
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How can marketing help you plan for the future?
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Elements of a Marketing Plan
❖ Target market How is your market going to change over the years?
❖ Product What do you offer today, and what needs can/and should you meet in the future?
❖ Positioning strategy How does your community compare to competitors, and to what the market is looking for? How does your brand need to evolve?
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Elements of a Marketing Plan
❖ Pricing strategy How do your fees compare to competitors? To other market factors?
❖ Performance measurement How do you evaluate ongoing performance, and what can that analysis tell you about your community’s needs?
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Target Market Analysis
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Resident Demographic Analysis
Sample Community #1
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Resident Demographic Analysis
Sample Community #2
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Typical Average Age of New Residents
Average Age of New Residents at Move In
Num
ber
of C
omm
unit
ies
0
8
15
23
30
Average Age of New Residents
70 to 72 >72 to 74 >74 to 76 >76 to 78 >78 to 80 >80 to 82 >82 to 84 >84 to 86
7
27
24
13
6
211
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❖ Residences are too small ❖ Too high a proportion of one-bedroom
and smaller residences ❖ Contract options may be too limited ❖ Limited amenities ❖ Limited wellness and dining options ❖ Sales team may not be educating
prospects on the benefits of moving
What is it telling you if your new residents are much older than average?
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Geographic Analysis: IL Market Density
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Geographic Analysis: IL Resident Origin
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❖ We are at a distinct competitive disadvantage to our competitors.
❖ Challenges could be product and/or pricing related.
❖ We have a niche market and need to focus on the unique needs of that niche.
What might this be telling us?
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Primary Market Area Demographics
Households Age 75+Income 2015 2020 # Change % ChangeBelow $35,000 17,181 17,301 120 0.7%
$35,000 to $74,999 10,216 10,670 454 4.4%
$75,000+ 6,569 7,580 1,011 15.4%
How is the PMA expected to grow in the future?
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Primary Market Area Demographics
Households Age 65 to 74Income 2015 2020 # Change % ChangeBelow $35,000 9,908 11,420 1,512 15.3%
$35,000 to $74,999 12,453 14,807 2,354 18.9%
$75,000+ 13,943 18,181 4,238 30.4%
How is the PMA expected to grow in the future?
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❖ Healthcare primary market area is frequently smaller than the IL market area
❖ Look at many of the same things: ▪ Where are the greatest concentrations
of prospects? ▪ How do those concentrations compare
to where you are actually drawing from? ▪ Does your draw area appear to be
impacted by competitors?
Healthcare Target Market
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Geographic Analysis: IL Primary Market Area
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Healthcare Primary Market Area
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Rehab Market Analysis
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Rehab Market Analysis
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Key Questions Organizations Should Be Asking
❖ Target market environment ▪ What is your primary market area (PMA), based on
historical data from actual resident moves? ▪ Are there untapped pockets of potential residents in
your PMA? ▪ Can your PMA support growth? How much? And how
much of that growth can your community capture? ▪ What is the market demand and potential for other
services, such as home-based care, continuing care at home, dementia care, and rehabilitation services?
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Product
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IL Residence Size and Mix
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Proportion of Couples by Residence Type
Residence TypeCouples
Proportion
Studio 0%
1 BR 10%
1 BR/Den 25%
2 BR 60%
2 BR/Den 80%
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Impact of Residence Mix on Couples
Residence TypeCouples
Proportion Community A Community B
Studio 0% 20 0
1 BR 10% 100 40
1 BR/Den 25% 20 50
2 BR 60% 50 60
2 BR/Den 80% 10 50
Total Residences 200 200
Proportion of Couples: 27% 46%
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Smaller Residences Produce Lower Margins
❖ Lifecare Actuarial Surplus Projections, Single Residents * Comm A Comm B Comm C ▪ Studio: -12% n/a -18% ▪ 1 BR: 4% 7% 0% ▪ 1 BR/Den: 19% 22% 9% ▪ 2 BR: 28% 31% 19% ▪ 2 BR/Den: 37% 41% 28% Weighted Avg, Single: 10% 15% 3%
*Goal is >10%
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Larger Residences vs “Younger” Couples
Community A Move-Ins, 2009-2013
Type # of Move-Ins Avg Age % Married
Studio 3 79.7 0%
1 BR 19 80.6 0%
1 BR/Den 29 81.9 38%
2 BR 24 79.3 54%Subtotal: 75 80.6 32%
New Garden HomesAll 8 78.2 63%
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Larger Residences vs “Younger” Couples
Community B: 2011-2014
Type # of Move-Ins Avg Move-In Age % Married
Studio/1 BR 32 78.1 22%
2 BR and larger 30 75.8 87%
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Larger Residences vs “Younger” Couples
Community C: 2008-2012
Type # of Move-Ins Avg Age % Married
Older Residences 66 81.7 20%
New Residences 11 79.1 82%
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❖ IL turnover, 6-year length of stay: 17% ❖ IL turnover, 8.5-year length of stay: 12% ❖ 5% of 200 residences is 10 residences/year ❖ Lower turnover results in:
▪ Higher census ▪ Greater revenue ▪ Lower marketing costs
Is 2.5 Years Meaningful?
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Design Implications on Resident Age
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Influence of Attributes on Purchase Decision of CCRC Buyers (ProMatura Group)
Attribute% of Highest
Possible Rating
Attribute% of Highest
Possible Rating
Appearance of Buildings 87% Fitness Center 79%
Location 87%Entertainment Opportunities 79%
Reputation of Community 87% Residents in the Community 77%Dining Services 86% Other Staff 77%Medical Facilities 84% Library 77%The Type and Quality of Food 83% Swimming Pool 77%
Type of Residences Available 83%The Times Available for Dining 76%
View From Your Residences 83% Receptionist 76%The Variety of Menu Choices 83% The Cultural Opportunities 76%
Size of Residences Available 83%The Educational Opportunities 74%
Types of Dining Venues 83% Executive Director 73%Natural Light in Residences 81% Number of Residences 71%
The Social Opportunities 81%The Arts/Crafts Opportunities 71%
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Assisted Living/Personal Care ❖ Household model ❖ One-bedroom residences ❖ Choice of decor ❖ Kitchenettes ❖ European showers ❖ Dining experience that’s equivalent
to independent living
Key Healthcare Product Attributes
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Memory Support ❖ Dedicated dementia unit vs
intermixed ❖ Household model ❖ European showers ❖ Extensive programming and
necessary staff training
Key Healthcare Product Attributes
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Rehab/Long Term Care ❖ Household model ❖ Private rooms ❖ European showers ❖ Personalized dining ❖ Dedicated/separate rehab unit
Key Healthcare Product Attributes
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Private Payer Expectations (Nursing) ❖ Private rooms ❖ Customization options ❖ Enhanced sleep experience ❖ Menu options ❖ Stimulating programming ❖ Fresh air exposure and activities
Key Healthcare Product Attributes
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Community Scorecard
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Community Scorecard
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Pricing/Product Analysis
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Competitive Pricing Analysis
❖ Lifetime cost analysis ▪ Actuarially based ▪ Factors in lifecare vs fee-for-service
and other contract options, as well as refund options
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Competitive Pricing Analysis
❖ Result: A clear understanding of the relative total cost of living at each community.
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Competitive Positioning Analysis
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Home Value Analysis
❖ Desired relationship between home values and entrance fees ▪ LC declining balance = median home value ▪ FFS declining balance < less than median
home value ▪ FFS, high refund: 20 to 30% > median
home value ❖ When pricing goes higher than this, it
reduces potential demand by limiting the number of people that can afford the community.
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❖ End goal: Objectively determine your value and competitive position in the market…
❖ …and determine an appropriate niche and target position for your community. ▪ Is this target position feasible and
achievable? ▪ What will it require?
❖ You don’t have to be the best in your market, but you do have to have alignment between your price and your product.
IL Pricing/Product Analysis
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❖ The same product/pricing analysis process applies to AL and memory care.
❖ Pricing analysis for rehab and long term care involves a different approach: Revenue maximization.
Healthcare Pricing Analysis
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❖ Quality of care and outcomes are influencing referrals.
❖ Communities are now competing for Medicare/Medicaid bundled payment partnerships.
❖ ACO partnerships are forming.
LTC Revenue Maximization
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❖ Relationships with referral sources need to evolve.
❖ Do you have the right person in the community outreach role to maximize your payer mix?
LTC Revenue Maximization
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❖ Length of stay, outcomes and hospital readmission rates are still essential.
❖ Add rehab customer satisfaction to the mix.
❖ Increase orthopedic referrals through outcomes: 10-14 day stay and follow-up after discharge to reduce hospital readmissions.
Rehab Revenue Maximization
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Performance Measurement
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Declining Census
50%
63%
75%
88%
100%
1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15
95% 95% 94%92% 91% 90% 89%
87% 85% 84%82% 80% 79%
95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%
Census Goal Cenus Actual
What is it telling us? ❖ Aging residents, high
turnover? ❖ Decreasing sales? ❖ Competitive
challenges? ❖ Market saturation? ❖ Marketing
challenges?
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Lead Generation Trends
30
45
60
75
90
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total Leads FY12 Total Leads FY13 Total Leads FY14
What is it telling us? ❖ Decreasing
effectiveness of marketing?
❖ Increase in competitor marketing?
❖ Reputation challenges in the market?
❖ Outdated branding?
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Sales Trends
0
2
4
6
8
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
Sales Goal Sales Results
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Ratio Trend: Leads to Appointments
0%
8%
16%
24%
32%
1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15
Goal Ratio Actual Ratio
Benchmark: 25 to 33% of leads should convert to appointments
What is it telling us? ❖ Change in sales
process? ❖ Change in event
experience? ❖ Change in market
reputation? ❖ Website challenge? ❖ Collateral challenge?
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Ratio Trend: Appointments to Sales
Benchmark: 7 to 10% of appointments should convert to sales
0.0%
2.3%
4.5%
6.8%
9.0%
1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15
Goal Ratio Actual Ratio
What is it telling us? ❖ Product challenges? ❖ Pricing challenges? ❖ Selling skills? ❖ All of the above?
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Do you have the staff to achieve your goals?Community A:
Newer, fresh, shows well Goal: 30 sales
316 appointments
3,950 connected calls ÷ 250 work days =
16 calls/day = 1.5 full-time sales
counselors
9.5%
8%
Community B: Older, outdated Goal: 30 sales
430 appointments
6,615 connected calls ÷ 250 work days =
27 calls/day = 2.5 full-time sales
counselors
7%
6.5%
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Assisted Living & Healthcare Performance Measurement
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Stand-Alone vs Life Plan Community
Stand-Alone Healthcare Community ❖ 1 full-time community outreach coordinator
▪ 20 networking presentations per week – 80/month
▪ 1 in 4 referrals will convert to a qualified lead
❖ 1 full-time admissions director ▪ 20-30% of leads should convert to
appointments ▪ 10-15% of leads should convert to sales
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Stand-Alone vs Life Plan Community
Life Plan Community ❖ What is the philosophy of internal IL
moves to AL? ❖ What percentage is needed from
external move-ins? ❖ Marketing director provides outreach
activity ❖ Same metrics apply
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❖ Full-time nurse care coordinator/outreach specialist
❖ 80% of time spent in hospitals and networking
❖ Referrals are based on quality of care and outcomes
❖ Plan for achieving the desired payer mix
Rehab/LTC Metrics
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Positioning Strategy
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Positioning Strategy
Strategic planning ❖ Bring together key constituency
groups ❖ What opportunities are there to
extend your mission? What niches are the right ones for you?
❖ How can you extend our mission in a way that best matches market needs?
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Positioning Strategy
Financial Strength ❖ Have you been regularly reinvesting in your
physical plant to keep the community current? What is your average age of physical plant?
❖ Do you have the cash/liquid assets to be able to invest in upgrading the community to meet current expectations?
❖ Does your balance sheet support the ability to finance improvements?
❖ Do you need an expansion to generate funds to complete renovations?
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Positioning Strategy
Brand positioning ❖ Who and what are you today? ❖ What is your long-term vision? ❖ Does your positioning enable you to grow? ❖ Do you have a brand that can grow with
you?
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Repositioning Strategy
Master planning ❖ Bring together an experienced team
▪ Architect ▪ Financial analyst ▪ Investment banker ▪ Marketing ▪ Residents ▪ Board members ▪ Management/staff
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Case Studies
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Case Study #1: Baltimore CCRC
Situation: ❖ 35-year old community ❖ Beautiful, rural setting on 94 acres ❖ Great reputation for care ❖ Strong financial position ❖ Census dropped into the mid 80%
range
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Case Study #1: Baltimore CCRC
Target Market Analysis: ❖ Highly competitive market ❖ High potential demand with
strong growth ❖ Population density centered
around competitors
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Case Study #1: Baltimore CCRC
Product Analysis: ❖ High proportion of small residences ❖ Out-of-date residence design ❖ Institutional healthcare ❖ Limited health and wellness
programs ❖ Overall: Below average product
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Case Study #1: Baltimore CCRC
Pricing Analysis: ❖ Highest cost community in the
market ❖ Limited contract offering
(declining balance lifecare) ❖ Market area home values
support higher entrance fees ❖ Poor overall perceived value
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Case Study #1: Baltimore CCRC
Immediate Action Items: ❖ Hire a VP of marketing and sales ❖ Revised lifecare contract to lower
cost ❖ Offer Type C contract option ❖ Develop IL pricing model that
adjusts entrance fees by location and view
❖ Develop “prototype” expanded existing residence
❖ Census is now at 94%
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Case Study #1: Baltimore CCRC
Longer Term Actions: Master Plan ❖ Renovate healthcare into
neighborhoods ❖ Expand assisted living ❖ Expand fitness and wellness ❖ Expand/update resident amenity
spaces ❖ Add 52 new, larger residences
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Case Study #2: Rochester Skilled Nursing
Situation: ❖ 117-year legacy in skilled nursing ❖ Conveniently located near sister
CCRC community ❖ Reputation and census are strong ❖ Private pay census only 29% ❖ No outreach presence or plan
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Case Study #2: Rochester Skilled Nursing
Target Market Analysis: ❖ Highly competitive market ❖ One competitor is adjacent to a large hospital
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Case Study #2: Rochester Skilled Nursing
Product Analysis: ❖ Old product undergoing
renovation to neighborhood model ❖ Hallway clutter and inconsistent
cleaning guidelines ❖ Shared suites ❖ Shower rooms
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Case Study #2: Rochester Skilled Nursing
Pricing Analysis: ❖ Competitively priced ❖ Rehab referrals are strong ❖ Challenges with perceived
value for private pay prospects and adult children
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Case Study #2: Rochester Skilled Nursing
Immediate Action Items: ❖ Medicaid residents will not be
moved back to remodeled rooms
❖ Customization options ❖ Sleep enhancements ❖ Declutter and clean ❖ Develop outreach plan
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Case Study #2: Rochester Skilled Nursing
Longer Term Actions: Master Plan ❖ Renovate first floor common
areas and front entrance ❖ Remove nursing stations and
renovate hallways prior to room renovations
❖ Provide dedicated short-term rehab neighborhood near gym
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Conclusion & Key Takeaways
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Marketing and Strategic Planning
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Marketing and Strategic Planning
The same things you need to know to develop an effective marketing plan are the things you need to know to
develop an effective long-term strategic plan.
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Marketing and Strategic Planning
❖ In the short term, this information drives: ▪ Marketing budget requirements
▪ Marketing staffing levels
▪ Residence renovations/capital budget ▪ Pricing and contract adjustments ▪ Aesthetic upgrades to the community ▪ Service modifications (e.g., dining,
wellness)
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Marketing and Strategic Planning
❖ In the long term, it drives: ▪ Master planning
▪ Operational staffing levels
▪ Residential reworking/expansion ▪ Pricing and contract adjustments ▪ Amenity additions ▪ Service additions ▪ New strategic initiatives
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Marketing and Strategic Planning
❖ While you are in the planning process: ▪ Be sure to use solid results reporting
and metrics evaluation to identify early warning signs of problems!
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Thank You
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