Using Partnerships to Meet NOAA’s Needs for its Next Generation Storm Surge

System

NOS/OCS/CSDL

J. FeyenF. Aikman

M. Erickson

NWS/NCEP/EMC

H. Tolman

NWS/OST/MDL

W. ShafferA. Taylor

NOS/IOOSM. Weaks

NWS/OSTJ. Kuhn

NOS/CSCK. Kuipers

NWS/NCEP/NHC

J. RhomeE. Rappaport

NOAA’s Storm Surge Requirements

Communicate surge risk via products supporting decision-making across multiple time scales Coastal land-use and resilience (years to decades before

event) Emergency management planning (months to years before) Evacuations (days before event) Real-time response (duration of event) Post-storm recovery (days to years after event)

Provide information with timeliness and accuracy required by each scenario

Challenges for the Next Generation System

Prediction of inundation due to total water level Tide, wind set-up, wave set-up, wave run-up, shelf waves,

precipitation, hydrology, climatological variability, …

Clear communication of actionable information Provide assessment of uncertainty and risk Intuitive visualization and GIS mapping of water covering

land Effective education to promote proper interpretation Coordinated multi-agency effort for products

R & D Challenge

Effectively transferring research to operations Research for new system based on needs for decision-

making (e.g., accuracy, resolution) Consideration of operational constraints during design

Weather forecast accuracy limitations (e.g., cone of uncertainty)

Timeliness and cost constraints (e.g., forecasts within 1 hr)

Systematic product validation using high quality observations of atmosphere and inundation

Vetting within operational environments (e.g., test bed)

Partnerships: a Way Forward

NOAA-wide team assembled from key offices across NWS, NOS, and OAR with executive steering team Includes support from HFIP, Coastal Storms, goal teams, …

Establishing coordination with external groups that have related missions USACE, FEMA, Navy, USGS, IOOS regional associations,

academia, private companies

Community modeling approach Share development expenses and benefits Standards, frameworks, and benchmarks needed to

streamline Research-to-Operations pathway

Towards Prediction of Total Water Level

Evaluation of ADCIRC simulations coupled to NWS operational weather and ocean models

Developing addition of tides, waves, and river inflows to SLOSH output

Planning nearshore wave model coupling to high resolution surge model (e.g., enhanced Wavewatch III with ADCIRC)

Sensitivity testing initiated for coupling between hydrologic and coastal flooding models

Coastal Ocean

Modeling

Hurricane Weather Modeling

Operational models

NHC Official Forecasts

Ensembles

Basin-scale Wave Model

Hydrologic Modeling

Precipitation

Wind,Pressure

Wave spectra

Water Level,Currents

Products

Nearshore Wave Model

Wave Stress

Example Products

•Maps and Visualizations

•Ensembles, Probabilities

•Product Uncertainties

•Wave Conditions

Wave spectra

Water Level,Currents

WaterLevelInflow

Prototype for Prediction of

Total Water Level

RiverLevel

Providing Clear Communication of Risk

Probabilistic SLOSH forecasts made operational

Prototype stand-alone surge warning from NWS

Cooperative NOAA-wide training on inundation products

GIS-based mapping and visualizations evaluated

Social science-based product design Studies underway of behavior in response to

understanding of surge nomenclature

Probabilistic SLOSH Forecasts

NOS Gulf of Mexico Partnership Project

Pilot project evaluating technological advances

Conversion of model output to GIS format and mapped over data layers

2D and 3D options

ArcGIS and Google Earth

ArcGIS

Google Earth

NOS Gulf of Mexico Partnership Project

3D GIS visualization of:• model output• topography• imagery• buildings

Transfer of Research to Operations

Community-based improvements SLOSH code modernization to improve portability Comparing models SLOSH and ADCIRC for sample

historical events Cooperating with partners’ inundation modeling

projects (e.g., CIPS, CI-FLOW, SECOORA Inundation Model Test Bed)

Community development of unstructured grid database

Operational test bed in planning Evaluation of real-time runs for mission requirements

(e.g., forecasting)

SLOSH & ADCIRC Evaluation

Hurricane Ivan hindcast; others to follow

Common atmospheric forcing from SLOSH

Different grids (structured vs. unstructured) and inputs (e.g., tides)

-Flooding barriers (e.g. dunes, jettys, etc.)

-SLOSH has similar cells for barriers

SLOSH and ADCIRC Grids

SLOSH & ADCIRC Evaluation

Preliminary peak water level comparison: Ivan

Next Steps

Many decisions need to be made for NOAA’s next generation system Requires balance of adopting research and

operational mission requirements

Desire to maximize utility of both internal and external products and services Engaged in partnerships Support community modeling-based strategy