using roadmapping to drive collaborative innovation€¦ · roadmaps and roadmapping a roadmap –...

Using Roadmapping to DriveCollaborative Innovation

Richard E. Albright

Albright Strategy Group, LLC

[email protected]

Key Points

• Roadmaps and Roadmapping– Roadmap objectives and purposes

– A common planning framework

• Roadmapping for Collaborative Innovation– International Technology Roadmap for

Semiconductors (ITRS)

– METI’s Strategic Technology RoadmappingInitiative (Japan)

– Malaria Vaccine Roadmap

How can you measure innovation if

you don’t know where you’re going?

Roadmaps and Roadmapping

A Roadmap– is the view of a group of how to get where they

want to go, or achieve their desired objective.(Discipline)

– helps the group make sure the capabilities toachieve their objective are in place at the timeneeded. (Focus)

Roadmapping– is a Learning process for the group.– is a Communication tool for the group.

The learning and communication benefits of the

roadmapping process are as important as the roadmap

document that results.

Many Roadmapping Objectives

Roadmap Types Examples:

Science and Technology

• Identify or Set ResearchAgenda

• Technology Assessment

• Malaria Vaccine Roadmap

• Quantum Computing Roadmap

• Structure and Evolution of the

Universe: Beyond Einstein Roadmap

(NASA)

Industry and Government

• Set Industry Direction

• Coordinate Execution

• International Technology Roadmap for

Semiconductors (ITRS)

• US Dept. of Energy – Industries of

the Future: Aluminum, Glass, Steel, …

• Japan Strategic Technology

Roadmaps for National Innovation

System (METI & NEDO)

Corporate/Organization

• Set and Monitor

Direction

• Coordinate Execution

• Manage Portfolios

• Value Creation (Strategy) Roadmaps

• Product-Technology and Platform

Roadmaps

• Service Capability Roadmaps

• Manufacturing Roadmaps

The International Technology

Roadmap for Semiconductors

(2007)

1.E-08

1.E-07

1.E-06

1.E-05

2005 2010 2015 2020

DR

AM

co

st/

bit

10-5

10-6

10-7

10-8

100

1000

10000

100000

2005 2010 2015 2020

tran

sist

ors

/ch

ip

108

1011

1010

109

Roadmap Planning in Four Steps

Pull

(requirements,

drivers)

Push

(capabilities)

Time

“Know-why”

“Know-what”

“Know-how”

“Know-when”

Understand applications and/or markets. Target key segments.

Identify competitors, complementors, and partners.

Set strategic direction

Define architecture. What characteristics/features are most

important? Link application drivers to specific challenges and

evolution. Set multi-year targets.

What technologies are most important? Link drivers to

technologies and evolution. Identify

multi-generation technology investments to maintain

competitiveness.

What resources and investments are needed? Plan projects with

the highest priorities. Are technology investments in the most

important areas? Identify and track risk areas.

Definition and Scope

Direction

Technology Roadmap

Action Plan and Investment Summary“To-Do”

(Sources: Tom Kappel; Phaal, R., Farrukh, C., and

Probert, D., Fast-start Technology Roadmapping;

Richard Albright.)

Science and Technology Roadmap

Trends/Discontinuities

ChallengesCustomer or Complementor

Drivers

Architectural Fit

Ease of training and use

Value

Functionality

Interoperability

Service/Support

Product Drivers

(Attributes)

PD1

PD2

PD3

PD4

PD5

PD6

PD7

Prioritize top to bottom

Architecture &

Elements

4

5

3

Research

Direction

(Know-what) (Know-when)

ApplicationPull Technology

Push

Definition

and Scope

(Know-why)

-1 0 1

OurCo rel. position

Competitor #2

Competitor #1

OurCo

OurCo LeadsOurCo Lags

Customer Driver #1

Customer Driver #2

Customer Driver #3

Customer Driver #4

Customer Driver #5

Customer Driver #1

Customer Driver #2

Customer Driver #3

Customer Driver #4

Customer Driver #5

Applications1. Nanostructured Materials “By Design;”

2. Nanoelectronics, Optoelectronics And Magnetics

3. Advanced Healthcare, Therapeutics And Diagnostics

4. Nanoscale Processes For Environmental Improvement

5. Efficient Energy Conversion And Storage

6. Microcraft And Robotics.

7. Nanoscale Instrumentation And Metrology

8. Manufacturing At The Nanoscale.

9. Nanostructures For Chemical, Biological, Radiological, And

Explosive (CBRE) Detection And Protection For Homeland

Defense.

Source: US National Nanotechnology Initiative: “Grand Challenges” for 2003

-1 0 1

OurCo rel. position

Competitor #2

Competitor #1

OurCo

OurCo LeadsOurCo Lags

Customer Driver #1

Customer Driver #2

Customer Driver #3

Customer Driver #4

Customer Driver #5

Customer Driver #1

Customer Driver #2

Customer Driver #3

Customer Driver #4

Customer Driver #5

Science&Technology

ElementsNanotechnology

10-9 – 10-7 mUnderstand Physical, chemical, biological properties, behavior

Innovations in materials, electronics, medicine, environment, biotechnology, computing.

1

2

Technology

Roadmap

(Know-how)

Competitive LandscapeCompetitor (share; base)

Strengths (+) and

weaknesses (-)

Core Competency Strategic Goals Value Proposition

Company (x%; y%)

Competitor

#1 (x%; y%)

Competitor

#2 (x%; y%)

Competitor

#3

(x %; y %)

Map to ElementsProduct Drivers

Architectural Fit

Ease of training and use

Value

Functionality

Interoperability

Service/Support

Technology Roadmap

Product Elements

TE1

TE2

TE3

TE4

TE5

TE6

TE7

Prioritize top to bottom

Technology RoadmapVISION

Core technology

Area

Product drivers

Import.Compet.

Position

L M H Lag Lead

C=current, F=future

CF

C F

CF

LEGEND: Technology Source:

Devel. InternalSupplierSupplier

CF

CF

CF

FC

Research

CF

Funding status:

Staffed Planned Unplanned

Voice coders

DSP noise algorithms

Vcelp

Expander

First order gradient (FOG)Microphone

ITU, Qcelp13

Steering array

Receivers Piezoelectric Noise cancelling earpiece, miniaturized

IS-99 Data BER Improvement/echo cancel.

Audio quality

Interface ASIC

Audio codec

Microcontroller

5735 Chip

1832DSP

Audio front end

Bas

eban

dci

rcui

t

ACA

CMOS

Bipolar discretes

8 bit CISC 16 bit CISC

Integrated

Call signal

proc.

CF

CF

CF

CF

CF

C

CF

F

C

C F

F

Housing

PWB 6 layer 1.5mm 6 layer 1mm

1.4mm1.7mm thick 1.2mm

4 layer 0.8mm Flex Molded-in

“Soft

Radio”

microcontroller

Single

Baseband

Chip

Weight/size

C

CF

C F

CF

F

FC

Switching (80% eff.)

Ease of use

Display 2-line LCD

User interface

Software

Talk time

Battery

Power amp

Radio

Antenna

4-line LCD 1/4 VGA

Navigation keys

Menu driven

NiCd - 4.8V

Linear - 50% efficient

Triple conversion

Module

Dual band, High gain

NiMH - 3.6V

Power supply

Diversity

C

F C

CF

F F

Touch

Sensitive

Configurable Cust. adaptive

Altern. tech.

~100% effic.

Double conversion

MMIC-3VRF

CF

CF

CF

CF

C

CF

FC

CF

CF CF

Voice

Interface

Homodyne Tunable,

Homodyne

CF

CF

CF

Last Yr Now +1 Year +2 Year +3 Year

6

7

8

Risk RoadmapNOW +2Q +4Q +6Q LONG-TERM

Risk Categories

Schedule (deliverables)

Risk s1 [.3] Risk s2 [.1]

completion events

Economic(cost, contract, budget)

Risk e1 [.2] Risk e2 [.1]

completion events

Resource(e.g., organizational,

execution)

Risk r1 [.1]Risk r2 [.6]

Risk r3 [.4]

completion events

Market (growth,strategy,

product attributes,

etc.)

Risk m1 [.4] Risk m2 [.5] Risk m3 [.2]

market events

Technical(component or system

performance)

Risk t1 [.2] Risk t2 [.1] Risk t3 [.5]

test events

Show StopperMajorMinorRisk Consequence:

NOW +2Q +4Q +6Q LONG-TERMNOW +2Q +4Q +6Q LONG-TERMRisk Categories



completion events



completion events


completion events



completion events



completion events


completion events


execution)


Risk r3 [.4]

completion events


execution)


Risk r3 [.4]

completion events


Risk r3 [.4]

completion events


product attributes,

etc.)


market events


product attributes,

etc.)


market events


performance)


test events


performance)


test events


test events

Show StopperMajorMinorRisk Consequence:

Summary and Action

Plan

(To-do)

Map to InvestmentsDisruptive

Differentiating

Base

DevelopAcquire Partner

Monitor

Defend

Attack

Co

mp

etitive

Im

pa

ct

of

Te

ch

no

log

y

Technology Source

Potential to change the

basis of competition

Product/Process

Differentiation

Widespread

and Shared

Disruptive

Differentiating

Base

DevelopAcquire Partner

Monitor

Defend

Attack

Co

mp

etitive

Im

pa

ct

of

Te

ch

no

log

y

Technology Source

Potential to change the

basis of competition

Product/Process

Differentiation

Widespread

and Shared

Action Summary

11

12

9

10

International SemiconductorTechnology Roadmap

Building on Experience

106 107 108 109 1010 1011 1012 1016101510141013

0.1

10-2

10-3

10-4

1

10

100

1

• Repeated, significant changes in product and technology1964 1984 1994 2004 20141974

10-6

10-7

10-5

10-8

2001-2005 International

Technology Roadmap for

Semiconductors

Cumulative volume (DRAM bits)

Ave

rag

e S

elli

ng

Pri

ce

(ce

nts

/bit)

• Semiconductor Roadmap coordinates many industry players, driving “Moore’s Law”

http://www.itrs.net/

64

74

84

70% Slope

Japan’s Strategic TechnologyRoadmaps

http://www.meti.go.jp/report/data/g50330bj.html

Collaboration for Economic Development

Leadership METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry)

Participation Government, Industry, Academia

Challenges 1. To maintain international competitiveness under growing economiesin the world

2. To achieve sustained economy with sustainable environment

3. To supply sufficient human resources under the predicted decreasein population

Purposes 1. Seeks public understanding by providing an explanation of the

perspective, details, and achievements of METI’s R&D investments

2. Understands technological and market trends, prioritizes critical

technologies, and develops policy infrastructure for planning R&D

projects

3. Promotes cross-field and cross-industrial alliances, technology

fusion, and coordinated implementation of relevant policies

4. Assembles the comprehensive strength of industry, academia, and

public institution

Japan’s Strategic TechnologyRoadmaps

Information and Communications

1. Semi-conductors,

2. Storage and non-volatile memory,

3. Computers,

4. Networks,

5. Usability (e.g. displays),

6. Software

Life Science

1. Drug discovery,

2. Diagnostic and Treatment equipment,

3. Regenerative medicine

Environment and Energy

1. Carbon dioxide capture and storage,

2. Reduction of CFC and development ofCFC substitutes,

3. Comprehensive control of chemicalsubstances,

4. 3Rs (Reduce, Reuse and Recycle),

5. Energy (under development)

Manufacturing

1. Robots,

2. Aircrafts,

3. Space,

4. Nanotechnology,

5. Materials and components,

6. MEMS (Micro-Electro Mechanical System),

7. Green Bio (Biotechnology forenvironmental improvement and finematerials production)

Roadmapping Areas

Needs Seeds

edical, public and office-related fields

Assistance robots for hospital use (A-F), guide and security robots (ABDEF), cleaning and transfer robots (ADEF)

ousehold and welfare fields Housework assistance robots (A-F), self-support assistance robots (A-F), home care and nursing care robots (A-F), child rearing assistance robots (A-F),medical

care and training robots (A-F), entertainment robots (A-F), multifunctional home robots (A-F), intelligent house (ABEF)

ndustrial robots, etc Industrial robots (A-F), intelligent cars (ABDEF), building, civil engineering, agricultural, forestry and marine robots (A-F), disaster restoration work

and dangerous materials disposal robots (A-F), space robots (A-F)

Necessary technologiesEnvironment structurization, actuator, standardization Recognition processing, sensing Sensing, control, mechanism, actuator, standardizationSensing, control, mechanism, actuator Control, actuator, standardization Control, actuator, standardization

Common technology: Systematization technology

Necessary functions A. Environment structurization, standardization B. Communication

C. ManipulationD. Movement E. Energy source and power managementF. Safety technology

Intro

ductio

n s

cenario

xtraction and solution of institutional problems (such as rulemaking for ensuring safety, response to accidents, response in medical and welfare systems, etc.) onsideration of measures to promote widespread use of robots (establishing public acceptance, government procurement, incentive measures for introduction, etc.)

Development of advanced model applications leading to an increase in

actual demand by pioneering users, including government and other public

demand

Expansion and intensification of common infrastructure

Development of element technologies according to robot types

Activated development of robots and expansion of number of companies entering the robot industry

Improvement of institutional

infrastructure, etc

2004 2010 2015 2025

Establishment of fundamental element technologies

Development of middleware

Pre-spread stage Spreading stage Full-scale spread stage Infrastructure developmenttoward practical use

Standardization of interface Technological development

Development of

advanced applications

Efforts by companies

Technolo

gy m

ap

Field of robotics Image of robots in and after 10 to 20 years

2010 2015

Communication

Manipulation

Movement

:

:

and so on

Required

functions and

element

technologies

Household and welfare

At present

Assistance in watching (wandering) and accompanying (walks) Assistance in outdoor movement and work

In-home medical care

Housework assistance

Child rearing assistance

Entertainment

Health

Security

Self-support

assistance

Home care and

nursing care

Medical care and

training

Cleaning robots (with more functionality, responding to special parts)

Health care (blood sugar level, etc.) and medication management

Aid in medical practice (phlegm suction, catheter management, etc.)

Power-assist aids (fitting type)

Intelligent house (Robotics house)

Automated network household appliances, furnished with sensing infrastructure

and vital sensing functions for robot autonomous movement

Self-support and home care assistance functions built in rooms and beds

Cleanup robots (maximum permissible weight: 6 kg)

Lightweight conveyance robots (maximum load: 20 kg 40 kg)

Rehabilitation and function-recovery training system

Getting up from bed assistance robots

Meal assistance robots

Excretion and bathing assistance robots

Cleanup robots (maximum permissible weight: about 10 kg)

House-sitting robots (keeping the outdoors under robot camera watch, in coordination with patrol robots) Security robots

Toy robots Healing robots Intelligent home appliance robots Health monitoring systemInfant watch robots (including intellectual education)

Meal and light-work assistance robots

Sensory communicationDialogist selection function Proper dialogs; distinguishing between three or more kinds of intentionsFragmentary recognition of a single motionNatural dialogs according to situations;

combination of about 1,000 words

Ro

ad

ma

p

2025

Heavyweight conveyance robots (able to convey aperson: 50 - 70 kg)

Network agent robots (Movement Conveyance Work)

Multiple-work assistance robots

Multifunctional home robots

Extension of functions

Integration of tasks

Movement, postural change, getting up from bed, clothes-changing and body-wiping assistance robots

Capability to run at about the same speed as a manCapability to run on two legs

Steps, slopes, jumpCapability to walk at about the same speed as a manOrdinary roads, outdoor unleveled ground

2 m/s

Hand: 3-fingered with 9 degrees of

freedom; mass 1 kg; handling of about

1 kg; driver built-in; wiring-saving

Hand: 3-fingered with 9 degrees

of freedom; mass 1 kg; handling

of about 500 g

Arm: Mass 35 kg; fingertip speed

2 m/s; load capacity 10 kg

Heavyweight arm: Mass 35 kg; fingertip speed

6 m/s; load capacity 10 kg

Lightweight arm: Mass 5 kg; fingertip speed

1 m/s; load capacity 1.5 kg

Hand: 4-fingered with 16 degrees

of freedom; mass 1 kg; handling

of about 1 kg; with tactual

sensing function

Arm: Simultaneous subtle and

heavy-load works; mass 10 kg;

fingertip speed 2m/s; load capacity 5kg

Hand: 5-fingered with 20 degrees of

freedom; mass 0.5 kg; handling of about

2kg; with soft skin Arm: Load capacity 10kg

METI Robotics Roadmap

Malaria Vaccine Roadmap

http://www.malariavaccineroadmap.net

Coordinating Research Direction

Leadership Malaria Vaccine Initiative (Gates Foundation) and other Funders.

Global

Ownership

More than 230 people representing more than 100 organizations

in 35 countries provided their input.

Vision The malaria vaccine community will develop an effective vaccine

that prevents severe disease and death caused by Plasmodium

falciparum malaria in children under five in sub-Saharan Africa

and other highly endemic regions. Efficient global coordination

and collaboration will stimulate the malaria vaccine pipeline and

accelerate progress towards this achievement.

Landmark By 2015, develop and license a first generation malaria vaccine

that has a protective efficacy of more than 50% against severe

disease and death and lasts longer than one year.

Strategic Goal By 2025, develop and license a malaria vaccine that has a

protective efficacy of more than 80% against clinical disease and

lasts longer than four years.

Summary

Roadmapping:

Discipline & Focus

Learning & Communications

Roadmapping: To Learn More

• Research and Technology Management special sections on roadmapping:– March-April 2003, Vol. 46 No. 2, 26 – 59

– March-April 2004, Vol. 47 No. 2, 25 – 57

• Technological Forecasting and Social Change special issue:– “Roadmapping: From Sustainable to Disruptive Technologies,”

Volume 71, Issues 1-2, (January - February 2004)

• Mapping Tools– “Product and Technology Mapping Tools for Planning and Portfolio Decision Making,” Albright and Nelson, PDMA

Toolbook for New Product Development II, John Wiley & Sons, October, 2004.

• Key Papers– Willyard, C.H., and McClees, C.W.: Motorola’s technology roadmapping process, Research Management, Sept.-Oct., 13-

19 (1987).

– Groenveld, P.: Roadmapping integrates business and technology, Research Technology Management, Sept-Oct., 48-55(1997).

– T. Kappel, "Perspectives on roadmaps, How organizations talk about the future," Journal of Product InnovationManagement, V18 (2001) p 39-50.

– R. Kostoff and R. Schaller, "Science and Technology Roadmaps," IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, VOL.48, NO. 2, May 2001.

– R. E. Albright, Roadmapping for Global Platform Products, Product Development and Management Association VisionsMagazine, Vol. 26 No. 4, pgs. 19 – 22, October, 2002.

– R. E. Albright, “Roadmapping Convergence,” in Managing Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno Innovations: Converging Technologies inSociety, W. S. Bainbridge and M. C. Roco, eds., Springer, 2006. On applying roadmapping to converging technologies:nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, cognitive science.

– Philip J. Whalen, Strategic and Technology Planning on a Roadmapping Foundation, Research and TechnologyManagement, Volume 50 Number 3, May 2007

– Raymond R. Cosner; E. Jefferson Hynds; Alan R. Fusfeld; Carl V. Loweth; Charles Scouten; Richard Albright, IntegratingRoadmapping Into Technical Planning, Research and Technology Management, Volume 50 Number 6, November, 2007.

– Pieter Groenveld, Roadmapping Integrates Business and Technology, Research and Technology Management, Volume50 Number 6, November, 2007 (reprint and update of an earlier paper).

– Yuya Kajikawa, Osamu Usui, Kazuaki Hakata, Yuko Yasunaga and Katsumori Matsushima, Structure of knowledge in thescience and technology roadmaps, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 75, Issue 1, (January 2008),Pages 1-11

Albright Strategy Group

http://www.albrightstrategy.com

using roadmapping to drive collaborative innovation€¦ · roadmaps and roadmapping a roadmap –...

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