what are roadmaps? perspectives to the development of roadmapping lecture 1 · what are roadmaps?...

What are roadmaps?

Perspectives to the development of roadmapping

Lecture 1

Toni Ahlqvist

PhD, Senior Research Scientist, Team Leader

Technology Foresight and Technology Assessment

VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

Victoria Technology Roadmap

Roadmap Training Day 19.05.2009

VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND

2

Schedule of the training

9.00–9.30 Getting started: introduction of the participants and trainers All

9.30–9.45 Presentation of the Victoria Technology Roadmap project Roos (ICS)

9.45–10.05 Module 1: Theory - What are roadmaps? Ahlqvist (VTT)

10.05–10.30 Module 2: Practice - How to construct roadmaps? Ahlqvist (VTT)

10.30–10.45 Module 2: Background presentation for the group work Valovirta (VTT)

10.45–11.00 Module 3: Tasks for the group work Ahlqvist (VTT)

11.00–11.15 Coffee break

11.15–11.45 Module 3: Evaluation of drivers and bottlenecks (Step 1) Participants

11.45–12.15 Module 3: Markets and actors (Step 1) Participants

12.15–12.45 Module 3: Constructing vision statements (Step 2) Participants

12.45–13.45 Lunch break

13.45–14.15 Module 2: Practice - How roadmaps support strategic planning? Loikkanen (VTT)

14.15–15.00 Module 3: Solutions and services (Step 3) Participants

15.00–15.15 Coffee break

15.15–15.45 Module 3: Enabling technologies and iteration (Step 3) Participants

15.45–16.30 Wrap up - Discussing the results of the working groups All


3

Structure of the lecture 1

What are roadmaps?

• Roadmapping: emergence and definitions

• Roadmaps as visual strategies

• Different types of roadmaps

• Roadmap hierarchies

• VTT’s approach to roadmapping


4

Strategic positions towards a future

1. Shape the future

- High risk, high reward

2. Adapt to the future

- Early adapters

3. Reserve the right to play

- To be aware

Courtney et al (HBR, 1997)


5

Emergence of roadmapping

• Roadmapping is an approach to align service, solution and technology

development with market developments and wider societal drivers

• Roadmapping is thus an approach for aligning technology and commercial

perspectives, balancing market ‘pull’ and technology ‘push’

• Roadmapping has its root in engineering sciences

• Its initial development is usually attributed to Motorola more than 25 years ago

• Since then roadmapping has been adopted and adapted by many organizations

• The most important first movers have been

• Technology-intensive firms in the consumer electronics

• Aerospace

• Defence sectors

• Roadmapping has since become quite widely utilized method in strategy formation, proactive planning and futures studies


6

Definitions of roadmaps

• Former Motorola executive and expert of science and technology roadmaps

Robert Galvin defined "roadmap" in Science magazine as follows:

• “A ‘roadmap’ is an extended look at the future of a chosen field of inquiry

composed from the collective knowledge and imagination of the brightest

drivers of change in that field. Roadmaps communicate visions, attract

resources from business and government, stimulate investigations, and

monitor progress. They become the inventory of possibilities for a particular

field.” (Galvin 1998 cit. Kostoff & Schaller 2001: 132)

• Roadmaps

• are an extended looks at the future of a chosen field(s) of inquiry

• are composed of the collective knowledge and imagination of the drivers

of change in a particular field

• communicate visions

• stimulate investigations

• monitor progress

• are the inventory of possibilities of a particular field


7

Further definitions

• “Roadmapping is a structured process for documenting the

anticipated evolution of a company’s markets and the product and

technology development plans to address those future markets. …

It provides a mechanism to capitalize on the scale of operations by

documenting key business goals and R&D projects, thus enabling

synergies to be identified.” (Cosner et al. 2007: 31)


8

Example of a Motorola roadmap

Willyard & McClees 1987, Research Management


9

Some dimensions of roadmapping

• Roadmap is a visualization of strategic aims of the organization/group of experts

• Explication of vision

• Explication of possible development paths

• Identification of potentials

• Roadmaps can be utilized in many ways to structure the research, development and strategic activities of an organization or a firm

• VTT’s public roadmaps focus sociotechnical changes

• Roadmaps can be applied

• In definition and embedding of R&D targets

• In characterization of development and competence needs

• As a strategic tool to combine different temporal perspectives and aims of a firm

• As a tool to map the changes in the markets

• As a tool plan business activities and networks

• In the anticipation of the long-term changes in the environment

• As a tool raise awareness of technological and environmental changes, especially in combination with scenarios


10

Some dimensions of roadmapping

• Roadmaps can include descriptions of changing technology and market

landscapes, but they should not be just inventories of these landscapes

• Roadmaps can include action targets for different actors in the process, but

they should not be limited just to action planning

• Therefore, it is important to make a following categorical distinction:

• Roadmaps are focused visual strategies structured in temporal levels

• Descriptions of future development targets in certain societal and

business context

• Action plans are specific descriptions of actions that should be made

according to the roadmap

• Action plans can also take the format of a simple roadmaps


11

Roadmaps as strategic lenses

Phaal & Muller 2009, TF&SC


12

Different roadmap types

• Strategic roadmap presents the long-range objectives of senior

management

• Market roadmaps combine e.g. known and foreseen customer

needs, competitive strategies, regulatory environment,

complementary products, substitute products and product

innovations.

• Product roadmaps describe the performance and feature

development of the products.

• Technology roadmaps describe the expected R&D activities,

including dates and R&D related information.

• Enterprise roadmap integrates all the elements of previous

roadmaps into enterprise level roadmap.

Cosner et al. (2007: 33)


13

Roadmap concepts at Motorola

Petrick & Echols 2004


14

Example:

Roadmap structure applied by Nokia

Source: Mika Naumanen


15

Roadmap categories

Science/Technology

roadmapsset industry targets

Product-Technology

roadmapsalign decisions with trends

Industry roadmapsset industry expectations

Product roadmapsschedule product

introductions

Roadmap Roadmap

EmphasesEmphases

Trends /

trajectories

Positioning

Roadmapping PurposesRoadmapping Purposes

Industry

understanding

Local

coordination

Science/Technology

roadmapsset industry targets

Product-Technology

roadmapsalign decisions with trends

Industry roadmapsset industry expectations

Product roadmapsschedule product

introductions

Roadmap Roadmap

EmphasesEmphases

Trends /

trajectories

Positioning

Roadmapping PurposesRoadmapping Purposes

Industry

understanding

Local

coordination

Source: Mika Naumanen


16

Categorization of roadmaps I

Lee & Park (2005). Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: Overall

process and detailed modules. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 567–583


17

Categorization of roadmaps II

Lee & Park (2005). Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: Overall

process and detailed modules. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 567–583


18

Generic VTT roadmap structure

Technologies

Products,

solutions

Markets

Present Medium term Long term

VISION

Drivers

Technologies

Products,

solutions

Markets

Present Medium term Long term

VISION

Drivers

WHY?

WHAT?

HOW?

Where do we want to go? Where are we now? How can we get there?


19

Examples of recent VTT Roadmaps:

Completed:

• Man-machine interfaces in vehicles. TT, Tekes & VTT, 2003-2004.

• Material technology roadmap. TT, Tekes & VTT 2005.

• Security Roadmap. VTT 2005.

• Water technology roadmap. VTT 2006 (unpublished)

• Transport System Technology Services. VTT 2007.

• Roadmap of Building Services. VTT 2007.

• Roadmap of Digital Built Environment. VTT 2008.

• Social Media Roadmap. VTT 2008.

Under construction:

• Service Science Roadmap. VTT 2009.

• Nutritech Roadmap on Intelligent Nutrition. VTT 2009.

• Green ICT Roadmap. VTT 2009.

• Roadmap of Ecomaterials. VTT 2009.

• Roadmap of Packaging. VTT 2009.

• Victoria Technology Roadmap. VTT & ICS 2009.


20

Conclusions

What to remember

• Roadmaps are focused visualizations of strategic development

paths for region, organization, technology, service or separate

products

• Roadmaps align organization’s future strategy in the tension of

”technology push” and ”market pull”

• Roadmaps are tools to direct future towards a certain goals

• Vision (where to go), present (where we are), path between

present and a vision (how to get there)

• What (drivers), what (solutions), how (enablers)

• Roadmaps as visual strategies in certain context

• Action plans as specific descriptions of actions that should be made

according to the roadmap


21

VTT creates business from technology

How to construct roadmaps?

Roadmapping methods, types and processes

Lecture 2

Toni Ahlqvist

PhD, Senior Research Scientist, Team Leader

Technology Foresight and Technology Assessment

VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

Victoria Technology Roadmap

Roadmap Training Day 19.05.2009


23

Structure of the lecture 2

How to construct roadmaps?

• Ways to construct roadmaps

• Different types of roadmaps

• Views to process of roadmapping

• Examples of roadmapping processes


24

Different ways to construct roadmaps

• Desktop study

• Expert review of existing roadmaps

• Synthesis: where does our organizations stand?

• Expert process

• Workshops

• Interviews

• Questionnaires, Delphi

• Integrated company process

• Databases

• Visual construction automatized

• Inputs from different strategic units

• Crystallized into roadmaps


25

Evolution of roadmapping at Motorola

Richey & Grinnell 2004


26

ICT-based roadmapping

• Pros

• Systematic

• Large amount of data

• Large amount of data producers

• Hierarchical roadmap structures

• Updateable living document

• Cons

• Rigid process

• Blocks creativity

• New ideas get lost in structure

• Locked in, non-iterative strategic perspective

• Examples of programs that can be utilized

• Sopheon Vision Strategist, Banxia Software, Planisware Project Management Tools, mind mapping tools (e.g. Mind Manager), different project management tools etc.


27

Roadmaps take many forms I

At its best, roadmapping is a collaborative learning process –

visual forms of roadmaps are varied

http://dojotoolkit.org/~chrism/DojoRoadmap_20070329.pdf


28

Roadmaps take many forms II


29

Roadmaps take many forms III

Blackwell et al. 2008


30

Design pitfalls

• Too much information

• Overloaded

• Cluttered

• No clear message

• No vision

• Inconsistent

• Lack of organizing logic

Blackwell et al. 2008


31

Roadmapping process


32

Technology roadmapping – generic process

PLANNING Workshop 1

Market

• Objectives

• Scope

• People

• Schedule

Workshop 4

Charting

• Milestones

• Product charting

• Technology charting

• Resources

• Gaps

• Way forward

IMPLEMENTATION

• Implementation plan

• Tasks (gaps)

• Integration

Adapted from Phaal et al. 2001

• Performance dimensions

• Market / business drivers

• Grouping

• Prioritisation

• SWOT

• Gaps

Workshop 2

Product

• Technology solutions

• Grouping

• Impact ranking

• Gaps

Workshop 3

Technology


33

Case example:

Tailored technology foresight process for

a multinational corporate client

Collection of

background

material

• reports, studies,

articles

CollectionCollection of of

backgroundbackground

materialmaterial

•• reportsreports, , studiesstudies, ,

articlesarticles

First workshop

• Evaluation of tech X

targets


types

FirstFirst workshopworkshop

•• Evaluation of tech X Evaluation of tech X

targetstargets


typestypes

Expert

questionnaire


targets


types

ExpertExpert

questionnairequestionnaire


targetstargets


typestypes

Tech X

landscape

TechTech X X

landscapelandscape

Tech X

mindmaps

TechTech X X

mindmapsmindmaps

Back-office

iteration

BackBack--officeoffice

iterationiteration

Second workshop

• Iteration of tech X

targets

• Evaluation of key tech

X concepts and tech X

types

• Synthesis

SecondSecond workshopworkshop

•• Iteration of tech X Iteration of tech X

targetstargets

•• Evaluation of key tech Evaluation of key tech

X concepts and tech X X concepts and tech X

typestypes

•• SynthesisSynthesis

Back-office

iteration


iterationiteration

Back-office

iteration


iterationiterationKey tech X types

and concepts

Key Key techtech X X typestypes

and and conceptsconcepts FINAL REPORTFINAL REPORTFINAL REPORT

= active working phase

= process output

Collection of

background

material

• reports, studies,

articles

CollectionCollection of of

backgroundbackground

materialmaterial

•• reportsreports, , studiesstudies, ,

articlesarticles

First workshop


targets


types

FirstFirst workshopworkshop


targetstargets


typestypes

Expert

questionnaire


targets


types

ExpertExpert

questionnairequestionnaire


targetstargets


typestypes

Tech X

landscape

TechTech X X

landscapelandscape

Tech X

mindmaps

TechTech X X

mindmapsmindmaps

Back-office

iteration


iterationiteration

Second workshop

• Iteration of tech X

targets

• Evaluation of key tech

X concepts and tech X

types

• Synthesis

SecondSecond workshopworkshop

•• Iteration of tech X Iteration of tech X

targetstargets

•• Evaluation of key tech Evaluation of key tech

X concepts and tech X X concepts and tech X

typestypes

•• SynthesisSynthesis

Back-office

iteration


iterationiteration

Back-office

iteration


iterationiterationKey tech X types

and concepts

Key Key techtech X X typestypes

and and conceptsconcepts FINAL REPORTFINAL REPORTFINAL REPORT

= active working phase

= process output


34

Example of roadmapping process I

VTT Roadmap for ICT based

Opportunities in the Development of

the Built Environment


35

Roadmapping process


36

Example of roadmapping process II

VTT Building Services Roadmap


37

Building services roadmap

Meta-roadmap

Thematic roadmap 1:

Building services systems

and equipment

Thematic roadmap 2:

ICT and software

Thematic roadmap 3:

Interfaces from building

services to buildings and

their infrastructure

Thematic roadmap 4:

Business models and

service concepts

Networked building

services

Building services life-cycle

design process


38

Networked building services

Markets

State-of-the-art Short-term (1–5 years) Long-term (5–15 years)

ME

TA

RO

AD

MA

PIN

VIS

IO

Tech-

nologies

Products

and

solutions

Drivers

TH

EM

AT

IC V

ISIO

N: N

ET

WO

RK

ED

BU

ILD

ING

SE

RV

ICE

S

Repairs: technical

solutions for non-

disruptive installation

Sensors connecting building

functions

Need to collect real-time data from buildings and products

Need for inter-equipment communication

Sensor networks,

power-supply-free

Sensor solutions:

e.g. RFID, pressure

detector

Integrated

systems

Markets for "insecurity"

Location services

Customizated /

multi-sensory user

interfaces

Collecting room

information

Standardization of

ICT

Smart

home /

building

machine

Self-controlling

systems

Remote reading

and monitoring,

two-way

communication

Getting the correct data – RFID, sensors,

event logs

Interactive user

interface

Adapting building system (controlled by

usage)

Sensors e.g.

for measuring

temperature

and humidity

Motion detectors

Built-in sensors

in structures

RFID

Sensor networks

Several automation system deliveries and

automation bus standards

Fragmented markets; not advanced

business models

Building operating

system

Demand for quality indoor conditions

Model-based

life-cycle desing

and

visualization

Plug-and-play-

equipment

User-specific personification

Emphasizing of individual requirements

Building services solutions for different

bus standards

Utilisation of self-made "de facto"-

standard solutions

Tailored single ICT-solutions


39

Business models and service concepts T

HE

MA

TIC

VIS

ION

: BU

SIN

ES

S M

OD

EL

S A

ND

SE

RV

ICE

CO

NC

EP

TS

Products

and

solutions

Markets

State-of-the-art Short-term (1–5 years) Long-term (5–15 years)

Drivers

Customer-oriented condition services

(selling of "indoor air" etc.)

Product model based operation and

maintenance Services for

recreational dwelling

Increasing demand of indoor condition management and reliability

Energy monitoring services

Safety services

Sales support systems (visualization, after

sales etc.)

Services for occupants (flexible renovation

services etc.)

Integrated

services

Building life-cycle

services

Collecting history data of buildings

Price competition

Management of product interfaces

Different doers

Networking,

partnerships

New doer: "service and desing integrator"

connecting a customer and a supplier

Open source -model

ICT: development of user interfaces

Labour shortage Increased interest

for education

Service markets increase in East Europe and

in Asia - networking need

"Virtual companies" owned by suppliers

Connecting building services and health

Comfirmation of compatibility (construction

+ building services)

Global markets for

niche systems and

services

Individual, solvent and demanding customer. Purchase services

Renovation and maintenance services.

New tailored service concepts

Small-scale moderate-priced expert services

New possibilities of ICT


40

Example III

Nordic ICT Foresight


41

Partners in the project

VTT Technical Research

Centre of Finland (Finland)

DTI

Danish Technological Institute (Denmark)

FOI,

Swedish Defence Research Agency (Sweden)

SINTEF Foundation for Scientific and

Industrial Research at the Norwegian Institute of Technology (Norway)

Core partners

Cooperation partners

Norway

Abelia

LO (Landsorganisasjonen)

The Research Council of Norway

SIVA - The Industrial Development Corporation of Norway

Oslo Innovation Center

Denmark

Confederation of Danish Industries

The Danish Society of Engineers (IDA)

Finland

Nokia Corporation

Sitra

Stakes

TEK, Finnish Association of Graduate Engineers

Technology Industries of Finland

TEKES - Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation

Workplace development programme, Ministry of Labour

Sweden

Ericsson Microwave Systems

Vinnova (Swedish Innovation System Agency)

Göteborg Pediatric Growth Research Center at Göteborg University


42

WP1

Preliminary studies

WP3

SWOT analysis

WP9

Reporting

WP10

Nordic conference

WP

2

Web-s

ite

& in

form

ation

Selection of focus

areas and applications

WP7

Action seminar

WP6

Roadmap seminar

National seminars

WP

11

Eva

lua

tio

n

WP4

Scenario

and vision

workshop


43

Four thematic roadmaps were created in

different scenario settings

User acceptance

Business paradigm

”Harmony”

”Conflict”

Open

source

Scenario 1:

ICT for Security’s Sake

Scenario 2:

Nordic Mystique

Scenario 4:

Big Business Lock-In

Scenario 3:

Elite Users’ Paradise

EU

Chin

a

US EU

China

US

EU

Chin

a

US EU

China

US

Lock-in

(Information)

Security

Experience

economy Production

economy

Health


44

Workshop process

Day 1 Day 2

Brainstorming:

elaborating the

sociotechnical

visions for the

roadmaps, four

thematic groups

Groupwork I

– four thematic

groups

Plenary

session I

Elaborating

the visions

Priority

setting

Identifying

critical

factors

Groupwork II Groupwork III Plenary

session II

Back-

office

Plenary

session III

Presenting

the detailed

roadmaps:

elaboration,

iteration

Linking the

visions and

factors

Drafting

links

between

roadmap

levels

Drafting the

roadmaps

Discussion

Draft

roadmaps Deepening

the links

Elaborating

Finishing the

roadmaps


45

1. Identification of target applications

Technical

applications

Societal

drivers

Market

drivers

Threat 1 Threat 2 Threat 3 Potential

substitute

Target 1

Target 2

Target 3

Target n

Key question:

Future ICT applications that would enhance Nordic productivity,

create jobs and well-being.


46

2. Prioritization of target applications

Societal

drivers

Market

drivers

Other

drivers

Threat 1 Threat 2 Threat 3 Potential

substitute

Target 1

Target 2

Target 3

Target n

1) Prioritazing targets

2) Choosing the most important targets in different areas


47

3. Drafting the links between roadmap fields

Target /

vision

Science

and

education

level

Technology

level

Business

and

industry

level

Market

level

Government

level

Target /

vision

Science

and

education

level

Technology

level

Business

and

industry

level

Market

level

Government

level

= factor important only in this particular target

= factor important in both targets

1) Identification of the most important factors in the target fields

2) Estimation of their importance

3) Characterizing and explicating the links between the factors


48

Roadmap template for Nordic ICT Foresight

2006 2007 2013 2008 2011 2012 2015 2014 2010 2009

Science and

education level

Technology level

Business and

industry level

Market

level

Government

level

Target 3

Target 2

Target 4

Target 5

Target 1


49

Roadmapping in progress


50

Documentation

New

products in

existing

market

channels,

like

pharmacies

Seed money for

starting new

business

Broad range of sensor,

communication &

database technologies

How healthcare can

be changed /

reduced

INTELLIGENT

SYSTEMS

AND

PRODUCTS

SUPPORTING

SELFCARE,

DIAGNOSIS

AND

MONITORING

Science and

education

Technology

Business

and industry

Market

Govern-

ment

Self-diagnosis & preventive

healthcare in early education

Focus on the positive effects

on the individual well-being

Focus on the technology as a tool

for better care in the education of

professionals

Counselling decision

support systems

Service automation

Verification for alarm

status (avoidance of

false alarms)

Scientific

documentation

of results &

impacts

Combination of psych. &

pedagogic e-learning

research & education

Combinations of

technologies and social

innovations

Replacing or supporting

human care with ICT?

"Nordic platform" for testing

new applications

Alarm systems

(type "I need help

now") exist

already

Focus on

demographic

driven products

(demand from

home care) Insurance

companies

support

Stimulate pilot

products and

system by

research and

development

Support for

cost-effective

self-care

systems (driver)

Standard setting on

different levels

Regulation for

ensuring privacy

(secure &

confidential

information)

Culture

dependent

products:

Nordic

platforms

and other

market

variants

Government and

insurance market

Better contextual

understanding –

empowerment of

citizens

Private user

market

User-friendly interfaces Technologies that use all senses

Demanding

market for

self

diagnosis /

sefl-care

"Nordic health support" -

established as a reference for

individual care and support

Professional

doctors might not

want laymen to

decide on health

issues

Scientific standards might

block initial entrance of

new products

Regulations for

selling / exporting

diagnostic

products etc.

Research funding

for small business

development

Defining the border

between professional

medical care and

self-care

Short term:

1–5 years

Long term: over

10 years

Medium term:

5–10 years


51

Conclusions

What to remember

• Roadmapping process can be performed in multiple ways

• Process should be defined by considering the aims and the scope of

the problem and the available resources to tackle the problem

• There is no single right way to make roadmaps

• Roadmapping process advances through steps

• E.g. drivers, markets, solutions, actors and enabling technologies

• Workshops

• Process phases

• Roadmapping is a collaborative learning process

• Different people in organizations

• Representatives of different stakeholders

• Creation of a common perspective of the future

• Commitment and action planning according to that common

perspective


52

VTT creates business from technology

what are roadmaps? perspectives to the development of roadmapping lecture 1 · what are roadmaps?...

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