usu.s. wine consumer / category trends and $ense - nielsen 2012 ver 2.pdfusu.s. wine consumer /...

U S Wine Consumer / Category TrendsU.S. Wine Consumer / Category Trends

January 19, 2011ySonoma, CA

Mik C li hi Cli B i PMike Colicchio Client Business PartnerNielsen Beverage Alcohol Team

What we’ll cover today………

• U.S. Economic Backdrop

Wi C / C T d• Wine Consumer / Category Trends

– Total Table vs. Total California Wine, Sonoma

– Domestic vs. Imported

– Varietala eta

– Price Segments

Ch l

2

– Channels

• Emerging Trends

Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

Worlds #1 Market Research FirmNielsen Measures audience in 30 countries

80% of Global internet users80% of Global internet users85% of Global Advertisement Spending

$$$Billions of retail sales transactions each month

Nielsen primary sources of dataScan Data

• Channels, markets, accounts, stores • Grocery, Drug, Liquor, Club, Convenience,

and Mass MerchandiserC t t b d d it l l

Scan Data

• Category, segment, brand and item level

• Who is the consumer/shopper? Where do they live/shop?Consumer Data (Homescan/Spectra)

• Who is the consumer/shopper? Where do they live/shop? What are their lifestyles? Media habits?

• How many buy? How often ? How much? What do they buy? • What else is in their shopping baskets?

• Account coding for 560,000+ on and off-premise locations Account Coding (TDLinx)

selling beer, wine, and/or spirits across the country• Industry standard channel classification; up to 5 layers of

hierarchies

Economic BackdropEconomic Backdrop

5


After six months of steady declines, consumer confidence bounced back for the holiday season

20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 20052005 20062006 20072007 20082008 20092009 20102010 20112011

906565

25

6


Source: The Conference Board - Nine census regions,5,000 US households; 1985 = 100; conducted by Nielsen U.S. Retail Trends

Overwhelming majority of consumers think the country IS in a recession. Only 10% think we’ll be out in a year.y y

Nielsen Survey – Q3 2011

Do you think your country will be out of an economic

recession in the next 12

Do you think your country is in a recession

at the moment? recession in the next 12 months?

at the moment?

Yes: 10%No: 60%D ’t k 30%

Yes: 84%No: 16%

7

Don’t know: 30%


Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey; Q3 2011 –U.S. Results

Saving & paying off debt priority, but less important with increased discretionary spend spendOnce you have covered your essential living expenses, what do you do with your spare cash? I spend it on…

1 in 3 reporting no spare cash1 in 3 reporting no spare cash

8


U.S. Retail TrendsSource: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence & Opinion Survey 3Q’11

Unemployment improving drops to a new 2 ½ year low

2 yr National Unemployment Rate10.0

9.5Dec 2009

9 9%9 9%

Nov 20109.8%9.8%

Dec 20118.5%8.5%

8.5

9.0 9.9%9.9%

8.0

Mar 2011

9

8.8%8.8%


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Seasonally adjusted.

Economic impact uneven; consumer more polarized Unemployment impact is demographically uneven; wine i d h l B himpacted the least, Beer the most

Race/Ethnicity Age Group

December 2011 Unemployment Rates – Seasonally AdjustedRace/Ethnicity

Asian 6.8%White 7.5%

Age Group20-24 14.4%25-34 9.4%35-44 6.8%White 7.5%

Hispanic 11.0%Afr-American 15.8%

35 44 6.8%45-54 6.5%55+ 6.2%

Gender (adults 20 +)

Women 7 9%

Education

Less than high school diploma 13.8%High school grad; no college 8 7%

10

Women 7.9%Men 8.0%

High school grad; no college 8.7%Some college, or assoc degree 7.7%Bachelor degree and higher 4.1%


Source: Seasonally Adjusted U.S. Total Non Farm Employment, Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Department of Labor

Wine ConsumerWine Consumer

11


Wine consumers are affluent with highest Index at $100K and above

Household Income Index ‐ % of dollars vs % of populationTTL Table Wine California Table Wine

300

TTL Table Wine California Table Wine

100

200

0

100

12

<$20 $20‐29K $30‐39K $40‐49K $50‐69K $70‐99K $100+


Source: Nielsen Homescan Consumer Facts Wine 2010; All Outlets

California Wine has broad appeal, though skews highest in 55 - 64 age group

Household Age Index ‐ % of dollars vs % of populationTTL Table Wine California Table Wine

g g g p

200

TTL Table Wine California Table Wine

100

0

13

0

Under 35 35‐44 45‐54 55‐64 65+


Source: Nielsen Homescan Consumer Facts Wine 2010; Age of Female Heads of Household; All Outlets

CA wine is in approx 26% of all U.S. Households and Loyalty is high at 80%

79.9

70

80

50

60

70

32

26.2

20

30

40

0

10

20

TOTAL TABLE WINE TTL CALIFORNIA TABLE WINE

14

TOTAL TABLE WINE TTL CALIFORNIA TABLE WINE

HH Penetration Loyalty


Source: Nielsen Homescan Channel Facts All Outlets 10-15-11

Chardonnay is in over 8% of all U.S. HH followed by White Zin and Pinot Grigio/Gris, Moscato high Loyalty

28 26.930HH Penetration Loyalty

19.3

26.9

20

25

1013.5

6.23.54.55.4

8.36.5 6.1

13.2

5

10

15

0.70

5

ONNA

Y

ANDE

L

O/GR

IS

USCA

T

ESLIN

G

BLAN

C

MIN

ER

15

CHAR

DON

WHT

ZINF

AN

PINOT

GRI

GIO/

MOS

CATO

/MUS

RIES

SAUV

IGNO

N BL

GEW

URZT

RAM



Cabernet Sauvignon & Merlot in over 8% of U.S. HH and similar Loyalty, Pinot Noir in 4.5% of HH

23.1 22.925HH Penetration Loyalty

12 415

20

10.412.4

7.7

3 64

8.8 8.2

4.5

10.4

5

10

15

3.6

0.522.3

0

5

NON LOT

OIR

RAZ

DEL

BEC

RAH

16CAB S

AUVI

GNO

MER

LO

PINOT

NO

SYRA

H/SH

IRA

ZINFA

NDE

MAL

BE

PETIT

E SIR

A



Consumers are most loyal to $0-$2.99 price segment yet only 7% of HH, $3-$5.99 segment in 21.6% HH

6870

80

45.150

60

21.6

13.5 10 4

20.516.5

10 320

30

40

7.210.4

4.9 2.6 1.4

10.3 8.3 6.8

0

10

$0‐$2.99 $3‐$5.99 $6‐$8.99 $9‐$11.99 $12‐$14.99 $15‐$19.99 >$20

17

$0 $2.99 $3 $5.99 $6 $8.99 $9 $11.99 $12 $14.99 $15 $19.99 >$20

HH Penetration Loyalty



Wine On / Off-PremiseWine On / Off Premise

18


Nielsen coverage is approximately 48% of Total and 60% of Off-Premise

Total Wine Volume Estimate 2010

On‐Premise19%

DtC Shipments1%

ff i

19%

Off‐Premise excl.

Nielsen/DtC32%

Nielsen 48%

19


Sources: Beverage Information Group for Total Industry Size; Nielsen Food Drug Liquor Convenience Plus; Wines & Vines and Ship Compliant for Dtc Estimates not including carryout; thru Dec 2010

On-premise recovery will have a long way to go, dollar share only now on par with 10 years ago

On‐Premise Share of Total Wine Dollar Sales

51%

45% 45%

2000 2007 2011*

20

2000 2007 2011


Source: Beverage Information Group*2011 Estimates

491,000 U.S. Wine selling outlets; close to 63,000 more locations than in 2005,

21


Source: Nielsen TDLinx – Total U.S. December of each year 2005 – 2010, Nov for 2011

Across Total US, ~10,000 mores locations selling wine in on-premise and ~4,700 wine in off-premise.

Total U.S. outlets Selling Wine 2011 vs 2010 Change

Walgreen’s

22


Source: Nielsen TDLinx Nov 2011 vs Dec 2010

In California State, 883 mores locations selling wine in on-premise and 393 wine in off-premisein on premise and 393 wine in off premise.

California State - Outlets Selling Wine 2011 vs 2010 Change

23


Source: Nielsen TDLinx Nov 2011 vs Dec 2010

Wine becoming mainstream,reaches par with beer in recent Gallup pollsreaches par with beer in recent Gallup polls

Do you most often drink liquor, wine, or beer?(among those who drink alcohol); % of responses(among those who drink alcohol); % of responses

24


Source: Gallup Poll (July 7-10, 2011)

Wine Category Report Card

25


Inflation driving stronger $ growth, while more non-edibles on fastest Units growing categories

Top 10 Fastest Growing Categories

26(bolded categories on both lists)


Source: Nielsen Scantrack, (U.S. FDM w/ Walmart) 52 weeks end 12/24/11

118 major category groupings

( g )

Most CPG categories NOT growing (118 categories)

Total Dollar Sales (+1.5%)Total Unit Sales (‐1.6%) Growing

19%

g

Declining

48% 52%

81%

27


Source: Scantrack, a service of The Nielsen Company; (FDM w/ Walmart) 52 weeks ending 12-24-2011

Prices rising in all departments except alcoholic beverages and health & beautyg y

Percent Change in Unit Prices

28


Source: Nielsen Scantrack, (U.S. FDM w/ Walmart) 13 weeks increments (vs. prior year); UPC-coded

Category growth rates at 2008 levels for WineSpirits on upward trend while Beer on downward trend

Annual Value % Change vs Year Ago

6.1%

2007 2008 2009 2010 L 52 wks end 12/10/11

4.4%

2.3%

5.0%

2.9%

0.5%

4.0% 4.4%3.2%

4.2%3.0%

3.7%2.6%2.0%

1.4%

Annual Volume % Change vs Year Ago

0.5%

Beer Wine Spiritsg g

2.9%2.2%

3.5%2.6%2.6%

3.7%

0 5%

2.5%

1.5% 1.2%1.2%

29

0.1%0.5%

0.1%

‐0.6%Beer Wine Spirits


‐1.8%

Source: Scantrack, a service of The Nielsen Company; (Off-Premise: Food/Drug/Conv/Liquor Plus//Selected Other Channels); 52 w/e 12-10-2011

Domestic Table Wine continues to dominate and drive category growth.drive category growth.

Wine Segments

30


California Table Wine shows strong growth and owns 66% of Table Wine sales.66% of Table Wine sales.

Lat 52 Volume % ChgValue % ChgLat 52 Volume % Chg$ Share Lat 52 Lat 13 Lat 13100% TOTAL TABLE WINE 4.1 2.8 1.3

Value % ChgTable Wine ‐ State

66% TTL CALIFORNIA TABLE WINE 5.8 4.6 2.76% TTL WASHINGTON TABLE WINE 4.6 6.0 4.13% TTL OREGON TABLE WINE 11 8 4 2 2 13% TTL OREGON TABLE WINE 11.8 4.2 2.1

Source‐Nielsen Latest 52 weeks end DEC1011.4 F/D/Conv/Liq Plus

31


Sonoma1 Wine sales about on par with California but lagging Napa1 & CentralCoast/SB1 growth rates

Lat 52 Volume % Chg$ Share Lat 52 Lat 13 Lat 13

Table Wine ‐ Major AVAValue % Chg

100% TTL DM TABLE WINE 5.7 4.4 2.566% TTL CALIFORNIA TABLE WINE 5.8 4.6 2.77% SONOMA TABLE WINE 5 1 3 9 1 57% SONOMA TABLE WINE 5.1 3.9 1.55% NAPA TABLE WINE 12.3 9.8 5.84% CENTRAL COAST/SANTA BRB 9.0 9.9 11.584% ALL OTHER DM TABLE WINE 5 2 3 9 2 384% ALL OTHER DM TABLE WINE 5.2 3.9 2.3


32

Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.1 – estimates based on current coding

Argentina and New Zealand visibly set themselves apart with positive trends, and in double digits.

Vol % Chg Lat 52 Lat 13 Lat 13

Lat 52 $ Shr Top 10 Imports Value % Chg

p p , g

Lat 52 Lat 13 Lat 13100% TTL Table Wine 4.3 3.4 2.08.6% Italy 2.9 0.8 (1.1)7.7% Australia (6.7) (5.8) (2.8)( ) ( ) ( )2.4% Chile (3.8) (8.3) (10.7)2.3% Argentina 18.8 15.2 13.62.3% France (3.5) (2.3) (3.7)( ) ( ) ( )1.7% New Zealand 22.7 19.2 20.11.1% German 0.1 (8.9) (9.4)1.1% Spain (2.7) (7.2) (7.8)

33

0.3% South Africa (14.2) (11.8) (13.7)0.2% Portugal (13.9) (10.9) (12.4)


Source: Nielsen U.S. Food Drug Liquor Convenience Plus thru 12-10-11

Argentina has jumped ahead of France and Chile, while Australia shares significantly reduced.

PRIOR 13wk Dollar Share

g y

CURRENT 13wk Dollar Share

34



Growth for Argentina and New Zealand is driven by a single dominant varietaly g

35



Malbec and Moscato leading, P Noir, P Grigio, S Blanc also trending well. Merlot & Wht Zin struggling.

Lat 52 Volume % Chg$ Share Lat 52 Lat 13 Lat 13100% TOTAL TABLE WINE 4.1 2.8 1.3

Value % ChgTable Wine ‐ Varietal

g gg g

100% TOTAL TABLE WINE 4.1 2.8 1.321.1 TTL CHARDONNAY 1.3 0.5 ‐0.115.1 TTL CAB SAUVIGNON 6.1 5.2 3.68.9 TTL MERLOT ‐4.8 ‐5.1 ‐4.38.3 TTL PINOT GRIGIO/GRIS 7.4 6.0 9.06.2 TTL PINOT NOIR 10.5 8.7 10.14.6 TTL SAUVIGNON BLANC 7.9 6.1 3.44.1 TTL WHT ZINFANDEL ‐7.2 ‐9.2 ‐7.73.3 TTL MOSCATO/MUSCAT 77.9 63.9 62.32.5 TTL RIESLING 1.8 ‐4.8 ‐4.21 8 TTL MALBEC 30 1 23 5 26 3

36

1.8 TTL MALBEC 30.1 23.5 26.324.2 TTL ALL OTHER VARIETALS 0.6 ‐0.8 ‐3.4


Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.Source: Nielsen U.S. Food Drug Liquor Convenience Plus thru 12-10-11

Red Blends ahead of White Zin, Moscato ahead of Syrah & Riesling & Zin, Merlot lost most share.

21.0Chardonnay

PRIOR 13wk Dollar Share

y gCURRENT 13 wk Dollar Share

20.5Chardonnay

15.39.5

7.7

Cab SauvMerlot

Pinot Grigio

15.7

8.8

7.9

Cab SauvMerlot

Pinot Grigio

6.24.34.2

Pinot NoirWht Zinfandel

Sauv Blanc

6.6

4.3

4.1

Pinot NoirSauv BlancRed Blends

3.92.82.6

Red BlendsSyrah/Shiraz

Riesling

3.8

3.6

2.4

Wht ZinfandelMoscato/Muscat

Riesling

37

2.42.21.7

gZinfandel

Moscato/MuscatMalbec

2.3

2.32.0

ZinfandelSyrah/Shiraz

Malbec



Moscato continues steep growth curve……

$350

$400

Mill

ions

$200

$250

$300

$

M

+65%

$100

$150

$200

+79%

65%

Rap Lyrics

$0

$50

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

38

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Moscato


Source: Nielsen U.S. Food 2002 – 2011 ending 12-10-11

Sideways movie drove huge increase in Pinot Noir sales and double digit growth ever since…..g g

$350

$400

Mill

ions +11%

$200

$250

$300

$

M

SIDEWAYS

65%

$100

$150

$200

+79%

+65%

Rap Lyrics+76%

$0

$50

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

39

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Pinot Noir Moscato


Source: Nielsen U.S. Food 2002 – 2011 ending 12-10-11

Strongest growth at $9 and above, price decline greatest for the $15 + segment

Lat 52Volume % Chg

Avg Price Chg

$ Sh L t 52 L t 13 L t 13 L t 13Value % ChgTable Wine ‐ Price Tier

$ Share Lat 52 Lat 13 Lat 13 Lat 13100% TOTAL TABLE WINE 4.1 2.8 1.3 ($0.02)8.5 0‐$2.99 ‐3.6 ‐4.3 ‐3.8 $0.0932.6 $3‐$5.99 4.2 2.2 2.4 ($0.10)16.6 $6‐$8.99 ‐4.3 ‐6.2 ‐5.1 ($0.08)20.9 $9‐$11.99 10.1 8.6 9.7 ($0.09)$ $ ($ )10.2 $12‐$14.99 7.4 6.9 6.8 ($0.03)6.1 $15‐$19.99 8.6 7.7 9.5 ($0.30)5 1 $20 + 11 1 8 5 9 4 ($0 20)

40

5.1 $20 + 11.1 8.5 9.4 ($0.20)Source‐Nielsen Latest 52 weeks end DEC1011.4 F/D/Conv/Liq Plus


Discounting since end of Q1 has correlated with strong uptick in Sales for $20+ segmentg p g

30

35

$0 20$0.30$0.40

20

25

($0.10)$0.00$0.10$0.20

5

10

15

($0.40)($0.30)($0.20)($ )

0

5

1/09

/10

2/06

/10

3/06

/10

4/03

/10

5/01

/10

5/29

/10

6/26

/10

7/24

/10

8/21

/10

9/18

/10

0/16

/10

1/13

/10

2/11

/10

1/08

/11

2/05

/11

3/05

/11

4/02

/11

4/30

/11

5/28

/11

6/25

/11

7/23

/11

8/20

/11

9/17

/11

0/15

/11

1/12

/11

2/10

/11

($0.60)($0.50)

41

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13 w

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$ Vol % Chg vs YA Avg Eq 750ml Price Chg vs YA


Trend is strong & growing for $15 + Dom Table Wine with < $15 growing but weakeningg g g

12.1%12.0%

14.0%

8.6%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

5.4%4.7%

4.0%

6.0%

0.0%

2.0%

52 wks YAG Latest 52 wks

42


Dom Tbl Wine < $15.00 Dom Tbl Wine $15.00 +



Growth across all segments within $15+

30.0%

6.5% 3.3% 0.9% 2.7%Share

25.9%

16.0% 15.6%20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

5.8% 5.6%

9.7%

16.0%

6.6%

15.6%

10.0%

15.0%

‐1.4%5 0%

0.0%

5.0%

43

1.4%‐5.0%

$15.00 ‐ $19.99 $20.00 ‐ $24.99 $25.00 ‐ $29.99 $30.00 +



Source: Nielsen U.S. Food Drug Liquor Convenience Plus thru 12-10-11Shared against Domestic Table Wine

Nearly 75% of Sonoma Table Wine sales are under $20 whereas almost 40% of Napa come in over $25p

44



Imported Table Wine $15 and above not performing well over latest 52 week periodp g p

7.010

(0 6)

2.40.3

3.10.9

0

5

(0.6) (1.5)

‐10

‐5

(13.9)‐15

‐10

$15.00 ‐ $19.99 $20.00 ‐ $24.99 $25.00 ‐ $29.99 $30.00 +

45

$15.00 $19.99 $20.00 $24.99 $25.00 $29.99 $30.00




California WineCalifornia Wine By Channel and State

46


The Food Channel is dominant with California showing strong growth across each, Liquor Channel soft.g g q

47


In the Grocery Channel, California Wine share has held steady over the past 7 years

California Wine Dollars ($Millions) Sales in US FoodCalifornia Wine Dollars ($Millions) Sales in US Food

2 801 1 3,001.5 3,191.0 3,348.4 3,548.1 3,708.2

5,000

2,585.4 2,801.1 3,001.53,000

1,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Lat 52wks

48

wksShr of TTL

Table 67.6% 66.7% 66.2% 66.7% 67.2% 67.7% 67.7%


Source: Nielsen U.S. Food 52wk 12/16/06 thru 52wk 12/11/10; YTD thru 11-12-11

Within Grocery, the states of California & Florida comprise over one-third of California Wine Sales.p

California Table Wine Dollar Share of US Food by State25.5%

10.1%7.6%

5 1% 4 8% 4 5%

less than 3% share5.1% 4.8% 4.5% 4.3% 4.0% 3.7% 2.5% 2.3% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0%

CA FL TX NC OH VA IL WA MI OR SC MO LA IN IA NM

49

CA FL TX NC OH VA IL WA MI OR SC MO LA IN IA NM


Source: Nielsen 52 wk thru 11-12-11

California Table Wine sales growing strong across most key states with only FL and IL < 5% growth

Volume % ChgLat 52 Lat 13 Lat 13

Food Channel by StateValue % Chg

y y g

Lat 52 Lat 13 Lat 13TTL CALIFORNIA TABLE WINETOTAL U.S. GROCERY 5.8 5.7 3.2CALIFORNIA 8 3 11 2 6 8CALIFORNIA 8.3 11.2 6.8FLORIDA 2.1 1.0 ‐3.0TEXAS 5.2 7.0 7.2NORTH CAROLINA 7 9 9 3 6 1NORTH CAROLINA 7.9 9.3 6.1OHIO 9.6 10.6 7.2VIRGINIA 8.2 6.1 3.6ILLINOIS 3 0 1 3 0 6

50

ILLINOIS 3.0 1.3 0.6Source‐Nielsen Latest 52 weeks end DEC1011.4 F/D/Conv/Liq Plus



Emerging Varietals and OtherEmerging Varietals and Other Trends

51


Sweet....is HOT!!! and not just limited to Moscato “Sweet Red” labels, wine w/chocolate, wine with eggnog

$ Shr Table Lat 13

Segment Value % Chg Lat 13

Volume % Chg Lat 13

0.5 SWEET TABLE WINE 206.9 213.4

52



New World blends, especially REDS, are “hot”

Value % Chg Vol % ChgLat 13 Lat 13

4 0% R d Bl d d T bl Wi 8 8 1

Lat 13 $ Shr Tbl Segment

4.0% Red Blended Table Wine 8.8 5.1

53



“Unoaked” chardonnay also on the Rise….

$ Sh T bl V l % V l % $ Shr Table Lat 13

SegmentValue %

Chg Lat 13 Volume % Chg Lat 13

0.5 UNOAKED CHARDONNAY 80.7 70.60.5 UNOAKED CHARDONNAY 80.7 70.6

54



Other Emerging Table Wine Segments

Value % Chg Vol % ChgLat 13 Lat 13

9 7% Screw Cap 14 6 13 9

Lat 13 $ Shr Tbl Segment

9.7% Screw Cap 14.6 13.9

3.2% Private Label 2.5 2.5

2 1% P i 3L B > $10 14 0 12 22.1% Premium 3L Box > $10 14.0 12.2

0.5% Tetra Pak 29.6 29.1

55



Closing thoughtsClosing thoughts…

56


Closing Thoughts…….

/•Economy likely to remain difficult / uneasy….Consumers will continue to seek Value…Pricing will continue to play key rolekey role

•Wine is a growing category and skews to Demographic l i d b E i Fless impacted by Economic Factors

•Wine is important to RetailersWine is important to Retailers – It’s a BIG and growing Category

•Consumer access to Wine continues to grow

57

•Consumer access to Wine continues to grow– More Outlets selling Wine +63K in 6 yrs– 1,276 more locations in California alone over the last year


Closing Thoughts…….

•Largest segment for Sonoma is $9 ‐ $14.99….– How can you get Consumers to Trade Up

•Cabernet, Chardonnay & Merlot have broadest reach across U S HH good news for Sonomaacross U.S. HH……..good news for Sonoma

•Red Blends, Sweet, Malbec & Unoaked Chardonnay are all , , ygrowing trends

– What & Where can you capitalize on this…….

58


THANK YOU and CHEERS

[email protected] 714 272 5241714-272-5241

59


usu.s. wine consumer / category trends and $ense - nielsen 2012 ver 2.pdfusu.s. wine consumer /...

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