uwa ogeg8513- future energy final essay

26
1 Future Energy OGEG8513 Final Essay Peter Smith – Student No 20724513 Final Essay Due 29th October 2010 Question: Future Energy Options for Singapore for 2100 and further on.

Upload: petermarksmith

Post on 08-Apr-2018

218 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 1/26

1

Future Energy OGEG8513 

Final Essay 

Peter Smith – Student No 20724513

Final Essay Due 29th October 2010

Question: 

Future Energy Options for Singapore for 2100 and further on.

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 2/26

2

Table of contents

1.  Introduction to Singapore ................................................................................................. 4 

1.1  Energy Challenges for Singapore ............................................................................. 4 

1.2  Singapore’s Advantages............................................................................................ 5 

1.3  Singapore Statistics (2009) ........................................................................................... 6 

1.4  Statistical Analysis .................................................................................................... 7 

2.  Singapore Current Energy Needs ..................................................................................... 8 

2.1  Singapore’ Current CO2 Emissions ........................................................................ 11 

3.  Singapore’s current energy uses and sources. ................................................................ 13 

3.1  Electricity ................................................................................................................ 13 

3.2  Transport ................................................................................................................. 14 

3.3  Waste-to-Energy ..................................................................................................... 14 

4.  Possible Future Energy Sources for Singapore .............................................................. 16 

4.1  Biomass Fueled Electricity ..................................................................................... 17 

4.2  Wind ........................................................................................................................ 17 

4.3  Wave/Tidal /Hydro ................................................................................................. 18 

4.4  Geothermal / Ocean thermal ................................................................................... 18 

4.5  Solar – Thermal....................................................................................................... 18 

4.6  Solar PV .................................................................................................................. 18 

4.7  Bio-Diesel / Bio-Ethanol......................................................................................... 19 

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 3/26

3

4.8  Nuclear Fission ....................................................................................................... 20 

4.9  Natural Gas (including CBM) ................................................................................. 21 

4.9.1  Gas to Liquid ....................................................................................................... 21 

4.10  Hydrogen Economy ................................................................................................ 21 

4.11  Electric Vehicles ..................................................................................................... 22 

5.  Summary ........................................................................................................................ 23 

5.1  Summation of determinations ................................................................................. 24 

6.  References ...................................................................................................................... 25 

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 4/26

4

1. Introduction to Singapore 

Singapore is a small but densely populated (5.07 million people with 7,022 people per sq

km)) country with no natural resources, a high level of GDP ($AUD77,000 pa.) and a high level

of wealth (rated fourth in the world). Most of the current energy sources are external to the land

mass which is only 710 sq km. (ref 2) This essay analyzes likely future energy options for

Singapore for the century beyond this one.

1.1 Energy Challenges for Singapore 

Singapore’s challenges are a complete lack of natural mineral resources, a lack of space for

large scale alternative sources (such as biomass crops or large solar farms), a very densely

populated island (currently the second most densely populated place on earth), a high level of 

electricity consumption (41,800 GWh in 2009 – equivalent to 8.24 MWh per capita pa –

however only 7.085 GWh are used for domestic consumption – this is equivalent to 1.4 MWh

per capita pa) and a first world standard of living and industrial development that will not

readily accept a lack of energy (ref 3).

The Singapore Ministry of Trade and Investment stated in 2009: “we remain vulnerable to a

number of supply risks, including insufficient investments in production capacity by energy

producers, and events such as geopolitical conflicts, social unrest, terrorism, accidents and

natural disasters that might cause a temporary disruption in supply. The continued growth of our

economy can also be undermined by rising energy prices since our energy costs are fully

exposed to global movements in oil and gas prices” (Ref 5 Pg 17). 

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 5/26

5

1.2 Singapore’s Advantages 

Singapore has considerable financial resources, an uncorrupted totalitarian government with

centralized control, a strong public transport network, an effective civil service and a compliant

populace. These factors will allow the introduction of alternatives that might be unpopular in

less strictly controlled societies. The high population density and lack of natural resources and

space will naturally favor certain technologies against others. The closeness of less advantaged

neighbors such as Indonesia and Malaysia is an advantage in that some alternatives could be

developed offshore and funded by Singapore to both countries advantage.

The government recognizes these challenges; “As a small country with limited natural and

energy resources, we are mindful of the impact that an energy supply disruption could have on

our economy and society. The use of energy is also closely linked to environmental concerns

over air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.“ (Ref 5)

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 6/26

6

1.3 Singapore Statistics (2009) 

The snippets below have been taken from the Singapore Governments Statistics Yearbook 

for 2010.

Figure 1 - Singapore Gas Consumption (equiv kWh)

Figure 2 - Singapore Electricity Consumption (GWh)

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 7/26

7

Figure 3 - Car, Truck, Bus and Motorcycle Pop'n

There are;

Houses: 1,119,000 (3.5 residents each on average)

1.4 Statistical Analysis 

The tables above show that Singapore is a growing population with an increasing dependence

on energy as it develops. This needs is constant and disaster would arise should energy not be

available.

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 8/26

8

2. Singapore Current Energy Needs 

Among the three most widely used international databases on energy, namely the EIA, BP

and the IEA, there is a large disparity on Singapore’s energy intensity. The Singapore Ministry

of Trade and Investment has determined that IEA’s data on Singapore’s energy intensity is the

most accurate of the three sources, as it had taken out marine bunkers from its calculation of 

energy consumption. The ministry further found that Singapore’s energy intensity is roughly on

par for an economy of its level of development.

Figure 4 - Singapore's energy consumption and intensity (from ref 18)

The US Energy Administration ranks Singapore as the worlds 37th highest consumer of 

energy at 1.97 PJ, with an energy intensity of 10,490 BTU / 2005 USD (42nd highest in the

world) and CO2 emissions of 154 MM MT p.a. (32nd

in the world) (Ref 6).

The IEA shows Singapore as consuming just over 50 million tonnes of oil products in 2008 –

however once the trade of oil is removed this was 18,000 ktoe in 2008 (excluding electricity

generation).

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 9/26

9

The World Bank estimate for Singapore’s energy use is 5830.5 kg OE per capita – the World

Bank also notes Singapore as having no alternative sources of energy apart from Fossil fuel. In

comparison the World Bank estimate for Australia’s energy use per capita is 5888 kg OE –

almost exactly the same as Australia (Ref 12). The IEA states Singapore on a per capita basis

consumes 6000 kg OE per annum.

As an export-oriented economy, much of the energy used by Singapore’s industry is not to

make products for local consumption but rather products for export. Singapore’s industry sector

accounts for about half of Singapore’s total energy use, most of it in exporting industries such as

petroleum refining, petrochemical, pharmaceutical and wafer fabrication industries. Singapore is

one of the largest refining centres in the world and the three oil refineries account for about 20%

of Singapore’s total energy use. (ref 4).

Regardless of the dispute on Singapore’s energy intensity, the government is committed to

taking steps to reduce energy consumption. According to the Energy Efficient Singapore

website, Singapore’s energy intensity dropped by 15% from 1990 to 2005 and has been

decreasing steadily since 2002, likely due to the use of better and more efficient technology in

the power generation and other sectors (Ref10).

The trend on the chart below however highlights how serious Singapore’s needs for energy

are – consumption is rising and there is very little indication that this can be quickly moved away

from being a hydrocarbon based economy.

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 10/26

10

Figure 5 - Singapore Energy Consumption Trend (ref 13)

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 11/26

11

2.1 Singapore’ Current CO 2 Emissions 

The main contribution to Singapore’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is carbon dioxide

(COs) from the use of energy to meet development and human needs. Singapore’s methane

emissions are negligible, as Singapore has no agricultural or primary industry. Singapore also

incinerates all waste and the little methane emitted from the existing landfill is flared off.

Despite having an export-oriented, energy-intensive economy, Singapore’s CO2 intensity

(CO2 per dollar GDP at 2000 PPP prices) is below the world average, according to the

International Energy Agency (IEA). (Ref 4)

Singapore’s CO2 emissions in 2005 were 40 Mt, accounting for less than 0.2% of global CO2

emissions. (Ref 7)

The power generation sector is the single largest primary source of carbon dioxide emissions

in Singapore, accounting for 48% of carbon emissions in 2005, the industry sector accounts for

about 54% of Singapore's carbon, the transport sector in accounts for about 19% of greenhouse

gas emissions and buildings sector contributes about 16% of Singapore's greenhouse gas

emissions. Most of the electricity used by buildings in Singapore is for air-conditioning (40-

50%), mechanical ventilation (about 20%) and lighting (15-20%). (Ref 11 Pg 7). Domestics

households generate about 10% of GHG emissions.

The Singapore government’s key strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is to be more

energy efficient. The Sustainable Development Blueprint from the Singapore government sets a

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 12/26

12

target to reduce energy intensity (per dollar GDP) by 20% from 2005 levels by 2020, and by

35% from 2005 levels by 2030 (ref 10).

(From Ref 7)

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 13/26

13

3. Singapore’s current energy uses and sources.

3.1 Electricity 

The power generation sector accounts for about half of the total fuel consumption in

Singapore. This energy is used to generate electricity, which is then used to power homes and

industries (Ref 8).

About 76 per cent of Singapore’s electricity is generated using piped natural gas (PNG)

supplies from Malaysia and Indonesia. Apart from possible supply disruptions there are

concerns that Singapore’s neighbors will increasingly require gas for their own domestic needs.

Consequently, less would be available for export to Singapore and other countries in the region

(Ref 5 Pg 18).

This fuel mix is much less diversified compared to the global average. To diversify electrical

power feedstocks sources, Singapore is planning to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2013

(Ref 5 Pg 6).

Figure 6 - Singapore's current energy sources (adapted from ref 4)

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 14/26

14

3.2 Transport 

Singapore has a well developed public transport network that currently carries 63% of the

passenger transport load. This network is power by electricity (for trains) and diesel (for buses)

with a very small percentage of CNG powered buses. The government aims to increase the

public transport load to 70% by 2020 (Ref 5 Pg 9). There are no alternatives however for goods

transport which rely on diesel powered vehicles in the main. Motor cars are powered in the main

by petrol (diesel cars are taxed at a very high rate and are not popular). There are a small

percentage of vehicles converted to CNG (approximately 3000 out of a vehicle fleet of almost 1

million). The total mileage driven p.a. at an average of 50km per day (ref 9) equates to

approximately 18.2 billion km. At an assumed average consumption of 8km/l this equates to 2.3

billion liters of petrol p.a. (approximately 80 PJ p.a.).

3.3 Waste-to-Energy 

Singapore is one of the few countries that incinerate almost all domestic waste to generate

power. This practice minimizes the amount of waste disposed in landfills and generates

electricity in the process. Since Singapore recycles or incinerates almost all its waste, the amount

of decomposable waste in the landfills is reduced. As such, Singapore’s landfills generate

negligible amounts of methane (which is also a GHG), unlike landfills in other countries.

Since 2000, Singapore’s waste-to-energy plants have been contributing about 2-3% of the

energy supply. At the moment, there are four waste-to-energy plants. In 2009 Singapore

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 15/26

15

completed a fifth plant when the new Keppel Seghers Tuas Waste-to- Energy Plant begun

operation (ref 11).

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 16/26

16

4. Possible Future Energy Sources for Singapore 

Singapore is a city-state with limited natural resources. Due to spatial and geographical

constraints, Singapore has very little alternative energy sources beyond oil and gas. The island

nation lacks the natural prerequisites to tap hydropower or geothermal energy such as large water

bodies or large land masses. Based on current technology for wind energy, there is also little

scope due to low wind speeds (Ref 7 – Para 3.3).

Alternative energy sources that will be more applicable to Singapore in the future (besides

the existing waste-to-energy plants) include solar energy and bio-fuels, particularly for Solar PV

as Singapore is located only 2 degrees north of the equator and has a large number of sunlight

days. However these sources of renewable energy are not yet cost-competitive with conventional

fossil fuels. Singapore is thus almost completely reliant on fossil fuels to meet energy needs at

present (Ref 7 – Para 3.4).

Improvements in reducing petroleum dependency to date have occurred through increased

efficiencies; for example while power generation between 2000 and 2006, overall power

generation efficiency improved from 38 per cent to 44 per cent due to the switch from oil-fired

steam plants to combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) (ref 5 Pg 9).

An analysis of the currently available commercial alternatives and some “blue sky”

alternatives is shown below.

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 17/26

17

4.1 Biomass Fueled Electricity 

The principle involved is the conversion of vegetative matter into energy via combusting and

using the generated heat for electricity generation via a steam turbine. Although Singapore now

generates an estimated 2-3% of its electricity from the burning of waste matter the scope of 

expansion of this program is limited by the lack of land for biomass production. The only way

this could be altered is by the cheap biomass from neighboring or Indonesia for conversion into

electricity (and possibly export sales of the electricity back to Malaysia). In this case the CO2 

emissions would be offset by the uptake of CO2 during the growth cycle of the biomass. There is

some precedent for this to occur in that Singapore imports cheap “dirty” water from Malaysia

and treats it before reselling it back to Malaysia at a much higher price.

The estimated Biomass required to replace 50% of electricity consumed at 2010 levels can be

calculated using the data from Assignment 2. In this case 52.2 tonnes per hour was required for

a 100MW generating capacity. Singapore currently has an electrical generating capacity of 

12GW approx – to replace 50% of the petroleum products would required 6264 tonnes per hour

of biomass – this is equivalent to approximately 250 truck loads per hour. This is somewhat

unrealistic. If the Biomass could be converted into a higher energy density form offshore (in

Malaysia for example) or delivered by ship this may be more viable.

4.2 Wind 

Singapore is a very small country located in a relatively calm part of the Malaysian

archipelago. There is little potential for large scale wind farms to be built – either onshore or

offshore (it should be noted that Singapore waters are a significant source of government revenue

as Singapore is rated as the worlds’ busiest or second busiest sea port – offshore wind farms

would disrupt this trade).

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 18/26

18

4.3 Wave/Tidal /Hydro 

Similar to the objections for wind power there is little scope for Wave / Tidal or Hyrdo

power. Although Singapore has some inland water bodies, these are miniscule in comparison to

the Snowy River Scheme for example. The average tidal movement in Singapore is quite low

(40 cm) and there is limited space for large scale tidal or wave based generation systems

offshore.

4.4 Geothermal / Ocean thermal 

Singapore is located on near the “ring of the fire” – the highly active series of volcanoes

located around the Pacific Rim. Singapore itself however is geologically stable and the

geothermal gradient is normal – the nearest faults that would bring hot magma close to the

surface are in Indonesia – over 1000km away.

4.5 Solar – Thermal 

Solar – thermal power is (generally) the generation of electricity from steam generated by

large scale solar farms that reflect and intensify light onto a collection tube. The output of a

parabolic SEGS (Solar Electric Generating System) is a direct function of how much land area is

available. The SEGS system in the Mojave Desert (USA) occupies 6.5km2 to generate 75MW

(from solar only). Singapore’s total land area is 581.5 km2. To replace 50% of the 12GW

current capacity would require approximately 520 km2 of area – clearly not a feasible option as

the entire island would be occupied by the SEGS plant alone!

4.6 Solar PV 

Solar PV is the generation of electricity from photovoltaic panels. These obviously need to

be placed where sunlight can reach them. The current efficiency of panels is approximately 5%

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 19/26

19

to 18% with 20% being mooted in the near future for the standard commercial silicon crystalline

cell. Assuming panels can be placed on top of buildings and other flat surfaces it may be

possible to cover 1/10th (58.1 km2, 5.81 x 107 m2) of Singapore with panels. This would

generate at peak sunlight periods (i.e. 168 W/m2

where η = 0.2) 1. 9 x 109

W (i.e. 1.9 GW).

However this “peak” would only occur for a few hours during maximum solar radiation (i.e.

noon) when there are no clouds or rain – the general assumption the author has worked with in

SE Asia is that “7 days of no sunlight capacity” are needed – in this case perhaps only 0.28 GW

are available overall.

This option clearly can decrease Singapore’s electrical generation dependence from fossil

fuels but cannot remove entirely the dependence.

4.7 Bio-Diesel / Bio-Ethanol 

The techniques and issues here are similar to Biomass electricity generation. The feedstock 

needs to be sourced from outside Singapore in very large quantities. There is a very small bio-

diesel plant in operation currently in Singapore – the feedstock is palm oil from Malaysia and

domestic waste oil. The economics are very dubious as the tax rebate not applied simply cancels

out the high cost of palm oil. Furthermore – presumably due to economics – two biodiesel plants

previously planned for completion in 2007 and 2010 have been cancelled although Nestoil plan

to complete a plant this year with a capacity of 800,000 tonnes that uses Palm Oil as a feedstock.

It should be noted that protests are arising over the use of Palm Oil as Palm Oil as a monoculture

has become responsible for large scale destruction of rainforests in Malaysia and Indonesia as

well as competing against food agriculture.

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 20/26

20

4.8 Nuclear Fission 

The viability of building a nuclear powered electricity plant in Singapore is undoubtedly

difficult given the dense population, small Island size and difficulty of waste disposal. The

government has not ruled the possibility out however (Strait Times Dec 2008). The PM Lee

Hsien Loong was quoted in 2008 as saying; 'I would not say never, because if global warming is a 

serious problem, if energy prices in the long term continue to rise, fuel prices continue to rise, and if you 

are worried about a carbon tax on top of that, then you have to seriously consider nuclear.' 

More recent studies has followed the same idea; “Singapore has no fossil fuels of its own, and is 

an unfavourable site for renewable energy. At some point, the possibility of a nuclear power station in 

Singapore will need to be examined” (Ref 20). The same study by the Institute of Engineers in

Singapore concluded that a good location for such a plant would be underground. A succinct

quotation explains the reasoning; Teller (1908-2002) a Hungarian-American theoretical physicist

who had been much engaged with the development of the hydrogen bomb, wrote (2001): “My

suggestion...is to place nuclear reactors 300 to 1000 feet [90 to 300 m] underground, in loose

earth. In such a location, neither accident nor earthquake could result in a considerable amount of 

radioactivity’s being released on the surface.” He went on further to explain that underground

locations reduce the threat of terrorism and radioactive material threat.

Indonesia is a close neighbor to Singapore. Indonesia is actively considering nuclear power

as an option – particularly as the country has recently become a net importer of oil. Indonesia's

House of Representatives gave a green light to the government's plan to build nuclear plants in

March 2010 (Ref 21). It would be feasible for Singapore to tap into electricity supplied from

Indonesia via subsea power cables. In such a case the likelihood of an accident affecting

Singapore would be reduced.

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 21/26

21

4.9 Natural Gas (including CBM) 

Singapore plans to build an LNG terminal in 2013. The import terminal, costing a total S$1.5

billion ($1.1 billion), will have a capacity of 3.5 million metric tons a year (ref 17). This fuel

will supplement the existing PLG arrangement from Malaysia and crucially will be able to

supply feedstock to replace the imports of crude oil used in Singapore’s refineries at Bukom

island in due course. The project will be funded by loans and equity from the Singapore

government, which took over the project last year because of the GFC.

BG Group Plc won a 20-year contract to provide the fuel to the import terminal starting in

2012. The initial demand will be 800,000 tons rising to 3 million tons in 2018.

4.9.1 Gas to Liquid 

Singapore operates two large petroleum refineries (One in Jurong and the other on Bukom

Island) and associated petrochemical plants. Currently these rely on liquid crude feedstock to

produce petrol, diesel, Jet-fuel etc that are exported (to the region including Australia) and

consumed domestically. Converting these refineries to accept an LNG input for conversion of 

gas to liquid (i.e. to supply ethanol or biobutanol for example) is an expensive proposition but

would allow Singapore to continue as a fuel supplier as well as maintaining a source of feedstock 

for the countries petrochemical factories. The CO2 emissions from such a process will be a

factor and energy inputs will also be required.

4.10 Hydrogen Economy 

Free hydrogen does not occur naturally in quantity, and thus it must be generated from some

other energy source by steam reformation of natural gas or another method. Hydrogen is

therefore an energy carrier (like electricity), not a primary energy source (like coal) (ref 19). All

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 22/26

22

free commercial hydrogen generated today is derived from natural gas via a steam process –

estimates of the energy loss in the process approximate 60%. Therefore Hydrogen on its own it

is not a renewable or alternative source of energy for Singapore. Even as a carrier it has

problems with leakage, flammability and energy density compared to petroleum.

4.11 Electric Vehicles 

Singapore has a pilot electric vehicle program in place with 50 Mitsubishi i-MiEV vehicles

(ref 15). Given Singapore’s small size and dense population – along with typically short driving

distances (~50km per day), electric vehicles would appear to be an obvious solution to reducing

fossil fuel dependence. However given that at present ~97% of Singapore’s electricity is derived

from either PLG or Oil, electric vehicles alone are not the solution to removing dependence from

fossil fuels. It should also be kept in mind that there are forecasts of serious shortages of 

Lithium and other metals required for battery production along with current shortages of 

Neodymium – all of these will affect the economics and availability of electric cars in the future

(ref 16).

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 23/26

23

5. Summary 

The table below outlines the author’s review and lists the feasibility of the different

alternative energy sources reviewed along with their suitability

Feasibility Energy Type Suitability Environmental Issues

1 Natural Gas Feasible as both a feedstock forenergy and petrochemical factories.A GTL plant would assist inproducing liquid hydrocarbons.

A contributor to GHGemissions (although less NOxand SOx than petroleum)

2 Solar (PV) Partial replacement of fossil fuelspower generation is feasible.

Not a contributor to GHG

3 Biomasspowered electricityplants

Raw Materials will need to beimported.

Carbon emissions neutral buta competitor for food stocksfor some feedstock.

4 Bio-diesel Raw materials need to be sourcedoverseas. Energy inputs arerequired.

Carbon emissions neutral buta competitor for food stocks.

5 Nuclear Power Will need to be located offshore (i.e.in Indonesia) and connected viasubsea power cables

Radiation leaks and spills area public concern.

5 Bio-ethanol Raw materials need to be sourcedoverseas. Energy inputs arerequired.

Carbon emissions neutral buta competitor for food stocks.

6 Tidal Power Not suitable due to lack of space andsmall tidal changes.

N/A

7 Geothermal Not suitable due to lack of high

temperature thermal gradient.

N/A

8 Wind Not suitable due to low wind speed. N/A9 Hydro

ElectricityOnly feasible in conjunction withneighbouring countries.

N/A

10 Solar Thermal Requires large amount of land area –not feasible in Singapore.

N/A

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 24/26

24

5.1 Summation of determinations 

The government policy towards future energy planning is outlined in the following quote;

“Energy plays an indispensable role in our economy. Our energy policy must be designed to ensure that 

the energy sector will be able to deliver reliable and affordable energy supplies to our population and 

businesses. In view of the changing energy environment, we need to formulate a holistic framework for 

energy policy. Such a national framework should be intelligent, flexible and forward-looking in order to 

address the energy challenges, capitalise on the opportunities generated by the evolving energy 

landscape, and to sustain our long-term economic growth.” (Singapore Ministry of Trade and

Investment – 2009) Ref 5

The author’s opinion is that Singapore is not such a difficult position as initially envisaged.

Natural gas supplies are forecast to last a considerably long time (6.6 quadrillion SCF current

estimated reserves with consumption currently at approx 120 trillion SCF) and provide a high

energy density “clean” source of electrical energy and possibly liquid hydrocarbon source via

GTL processes.

Other energy alternatives will become more attractive as the rising prices of crude and LNG

reduces the advantage of conventional energy sources to the market place. The Singapore

government is in both a financial and political situation where hard decisions can be made and

subsidizes provided for the development of alternatives both domestically and internationally. In

this final regard the closeness of neighbors that can provide energy are important, these

neighbors are in a similar position for future energy demands but perhaps not on the same time

scale.

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 25/26

25

6. References 

1.  WIRED MAGAZINE - HTTP:// WWW.WIRED.COM/ INSPIREDBYYOU/2010/10/ PEAK-

EVERYTHING/?IBYPID=13 – RETRIEVED 18 OCT 2010

2.  SINGAPORE GOVERNMENT - STATISTICS SINGAPORE KEY INDICATORS –

HTTP:// WWW.SINGSTAT.GOV.SG/ STATS/ KEYIND.HTML - RETRIEVED 20TH OCT 2010

3.  SINGAPORE GOVERNMENT - STATISTICS SINGAPORE MISCELLANEOUS INDICATORS – SINGAPORE

GOVERNMENT - STATISTICS SINGAPORE KEY INDICATORS – 

HTTP:// WWW.SINGSTAT.GOV.SG/ STATS/ KEYIND.HTML - RETRIEVED 20TH OCT 2010

4.  SINGAPORE’S NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY - CHAPTER 3 PAGE 1- 

HTTP:// APP.MEWR.GOV.SG/ DATA/IMGUPD/NCCS_CHAPTER_3_-_MITIGATION.PDF - RETRIEVED

20TH OCT 2010

5.  MINISTRY OF TRADE AND INVESTMENT SINGAPORE – NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY REPORT 2009 - 

HTTP:// APP.MTI.GOV.SG/ DEFAULT.ASP?ID=2546 – RETRIEVED 21ST OCT 2010

6.  EIA – INTERNATIONAL ENERGY DATA AND ANALYSIS FOR SINGAPORE - 

HTTP:// TONTO.EIA.DOE.GOV/ COUNTRY/ COUNTRY_ENERGY_DATA.CFM?FIPS=SN – RETRIEVED 21ST

OCT 2010

7.  SINGAPORE’S NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY – SINGAPORE ENVIRONMENTAL

PROTECTION AGENCY - HTTP:// APP.MEWR.GOV.SG/ DATA/IMGUPD/NCCS_CHAPTER_3_-

_MITIGATION.PDF - RETRIEVED 20TH OCT 2010.

8.  E2 SINGAPORE – ENERGY EFFICIENT SINGAPORE – POWER GENERATION - 

HTTP:// WWW.E2SINGAPORE.GOV.SG/ POWER-GENERATION.HTML - RETRIEVED 20TH OCT 2010.

9.  SMART SINGAPORE: ELECTRIC VEHICLES - HTTP:// SINGAPORE.IEW.COM.SG/ SMART-SINGAPORE-

ELECTRIC-VEHICLES - RETRIEVED 20TH OCT 2010.

10.  HTTP:// WWW.LOWCARBONSG.COM/ TAG/ FUEL-CONSUMPTION/ 

11.  HTTP:// APP.MEWR.GOV.SG/ DATA/IMGUPD/NCCS_CHAPTER_3_-_MITIGATION.PDF - PG 11.

12.  HTTP:// WWW.TRADINGECONOMICS.COM/WORLD-ECONOMY/WORLD-BANK-BY-INDICATOR.ASPX - 

RETRIEVED 25TH OCT 2010.

8/7/2019 UWA OGEG8513- Future Energy Final Essay

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/uwa-ogeg8513-future-energy-final-essay 26/26

13.  EARTHRENDS 2003 -

HTTP:// EARTHTRENDS.WRI.ORG/ PDF_LIBRARY/ COUNTRY_PROFILES/ ENE_COU_702.PDF – RETRIEVED

22ND OCT 2010

14.  HTTP:// WWW.NEXTERAENERGYRESOURCES.COM/ CONTENT/ WHERE/ PORTFOLIO/ PDF/ SEGS.PDF - 

RETRIEVED 22ND OCT 2010

15.  SINGAPORE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY WEEK - HTTP:// SINGAPORE.IEW.COM.SG/ SMART-SINGAPORE-

ELECTRIC-VEHICLES - RETRIEVED 22ND OCT 2010.

16.  COMMUNICATION DEPARTMENT OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION – “Report forecasts shortages of 

14 critical mineral raw materials” 2010 -

http://europa.eu/rapid/pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/10/752&format=HT – Retrieved 22nd 

Oct 2010

17.  BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK – OCT 25, 2010 

18.  LOW CARBON SG - OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SITUATION IN SINGAPORE – MARCH 24, 2010 - 

HTTP:// WWW.LOWCARBONSG.COM/ TAG/ ENERGY-CONSUMPTION/   - RETRIEVED 22ND OCT 2010

19.  THE MYTH OF THE HYDROGEN ECONOMY (2010) - DALE ALLEN PFEIFFER - 

HTTP:// WWW.ENERGYBULLETIN.NET/ NODE/11963

20.  IES JOURNAL PART A: CIVIL & STRUCTURAL ENGINEERING (VOLUME 3, NUMBER 1, 2010). - 

NUCLEAR POWER IN SINGAPORE ANDREW PALMER, SEERAM RAMAKRISHNA AND HASSAN

MUZAFFAR CHEEMA 

21.  ENERGY RESOURCES – NUCLEAR POWER A POSSIBILITY FOR INDONESIA (MARCH 2010) - 

HTTP:// WWW.UPI.COM/SCIENCE_NEWS/RESOURCE-WARS/2010/03/17/NUCLEAR-POWER-A-

POSSIBILITY-FOR-INDONESIA/UPI-27851268854191/   - RETRIEVED 23 OCT 2010