vale nickel business
TRANSCRIPT
1
Roberto MoretzsohnExecutive Vice President, MarketingVale Inco
Vale Nickel business
Rio de Janeiro
September 2009
2
Vale has a strong platform to grow the nickel business
Current
Sudbury
Voisey’s Bay
Thompson
Indonesia
Growth
Onca Puma
Goro
A balance of sulphide and laterite properties
3
Vale nickel business is located…
Carbonyl
Electro
ThompsonThompson
SudburySudburyClydachClydach
MatsusakaMatsusakaKNCKNC
TNRCTNRCDalianDalian
Tonimet
Utility
VoiseyVoisey’’s s BayBay
PTIPTIOnca PumaOnca Puma
GoroGoro
Refinery
Mines
Development Properties
4
Nickel reserves (100% Basis)1million metric tons of contained nickel
¹ P&P reservesSources: BrookHunt 2008 edition Nickel Industry Cost Study and Vale annual report 2008Note: Xstrata includes 100% Koniambo
We continue to develop and build our leading position in the nickel market
2.0
2.6
4.1
4.5
5.8
8.9
Eramet
Xstrata
BHPB
Jinchuan
Norilsk Nickel
Vale
5
Continued focus on employee health and safety
Canadian mines have won the John T. Ryan award for “Safest Metal Mine in Canada” for a record 5 years in a row.
- Birchtree Mine (Thompson) – 2004.
- Garson Mine (Sudbury) – 2005.
- North Mine (Sudbury)– 2006, 2007 & 2008 .
In January 2009, Copper Cliff North Mine celebrated 3 years disabling injury (DI) free – a milestone virtually unprecedented in the industry.
Indonesian Operations lead Vale Nickel business in safety performance.
6
We continue to grow our production capability to leverage our resource base
220235
248
275
2005 2006 2007 2008
kt of Nickel
Source: Vale
Increases with the addition of Voisey's Bay, additional mine development and processing improvements in Canada, as well as increased thermal power in Indonesia.
2008 production curtailed in Q4 due to market conditions.
With the commissioning of Goro and Onca Puma, production will increase by ~ 45% when fully ramped up.
7
Managed the near term impacts of the market downturn with focus on sustainable improvements
Production
Flexing the production capacity in PTI utilizing the fuel fired power sources.
Optimizing product mix to meet changing market demands.
Review of mine design and processing configurations to allow formore efficient operations.
Operating Costs
Workforce efficiency improvements.
Reorganization – corporate functions and operations.
Cost reduction targets in all operations and corporate office.
Capital and Sustaining Investments
Prioritization of key projects to deliver long term growth whilemaintaining the sustainability of the asset base.
8
Nickel laterite operation in the state of Para to produce ferronickel.
Annual capacity: 58 kt of nickel in ferronickel.
Estimated investment: US $ 2.297 billion.
Onca Puma
Construction progressing again.
Operational readiness assessment underway .
Operations training taking place.
First line is expected to be commissioned in 2H10.
9
Goro Project
Project construction complete.
Commissioning underway.
Recovered from the impact of the acid plant incident.
Operations fully staffed.
First production late 2009.
High Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL).
Process for laterite ores in the Southern Province of New Caledonia.
Annual capacity: 60 kt nickel oxide and 4,600 t cobalt intermediate.
Estimated investment: US $4.083 billion.
10
Voisey’s Bay processing plant
Project released from further Environmental Assessment, 2008.
Hydromet technology selected in November 2008.
Feasibility level of engineering completed.
Early works started in April 2009.
Detailed engineering, procurement and construction activities in progress.
Hydrometallurgical plant to process sulphide concentrates.
Annual capacity:- 50 kt electronickel.- 5,000 t copper.- 2,500 t cobalt.
Scheduled completion by Feb 2013.
11
Nickel prices have recovered from their 2009 lows
LME Stocks (tonnes)
LME Cash Price
(US$/ tonne)
Source: LME
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
LME cash nickel price and stocksJanuary 2005 to Sept 25 2009
12
Robust Chinese nickel demand drove the market in H1 2009.
Stainless production continues improvements.
- China setting production records in Q2/Q3 – potential Q4 moderation.
- Recovery outside China gathering pace in Q3 – representing 70%+ of world SS market in 2008.
- Declining scrap availability and higher austenitic ratio to drive primary nickel demand growth.
- Potential remains for stainless re-stocking outside China .
Non-stainless remains mixed – improvements in a number of sectors.
Nickel supply declining in first half of 2009.
Market update
13
In the first half of 2009, China and Taiwan drove stainless production – improvements have broadened to all markets into Q3
IndexQ1 2006 = 100
Quarterly stainless production trendsQ1 2006 – Q2 2009 (f)
* Source: Vale estimates
25
75
125
175
225
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2e2006 2007 2008 2009
China/Taiwan
Rest of World
14
We have a strong presence in the growing Asian market
World nickel demand by geography versus Vale sales
53%
5%9%
33%
Rest of World Europe
North America Asia
60%
1%
27%
12%
2008 World nickel use Vale 2008 sales
15
Quarterly stainless steel production1970 to 2009Q2 (f)
Selling nickel to the stainless steel industry can be challenging given the inherent volatility
Source: 1970-2000 Macquarie Bank, 2001-2009 Vale
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%1Q
704Q
703Q
712Q
721Q
734Q
733Q
742Q
751Q
764Q
763Q
772Q
781Q
794Q
793Q
802Q
811Q
824Q
823Q
832Q
841Q
854Q
853Q
862Q
871Q
884Q
883Q
892Q
901Q
914Q
913Q
922Q
931Q
944Q
943Q
952Q
961Q
974Q
973Q
982Q
991Q
004Q
003Q
012Q
021Q
034Q
033Q
042Q
051Q
064Q
063Q
072Q
081Q
09E
Y-O-Y Change
Q-O-Q Change
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1Q70
4Q70
3Q71
2Q72
1Q73
4Q73
3Q74
2Q75
1Q76
4Q76
3Q77
2Q78
1Q79
4Q79
3Q80
2Q81
1Q82
4Q82
3Q83
2Q84
1Q85
4Q85
3Q86
2Q87
1Q88
4Q88
3Q89
2Q90
1Q91
4Q91
3Q92
2Q93
1Q94
4Q94
3Q95
2Q96
1Q97
4Q97
3Q98
2Q99
1Q00
4Q00
3Q01
2Q02
1Q03
4Q03
3Q04
2Q05
1Q06
4Q06
3Q07
2Q08
1Q09
E
16
We have a strong position in Non-Stainless sectors providing flexibility to shift nickel in and out of the Stainless sector to manage demand variability
World Nickel demand by application versus Vale sales
58%
42%
Stainless Non-Stainless
33%
67%
43%
57%
Vale 2009 H1 sales2008 World nickel use Vale 2008 sales
17
Nickel demand poised to rebound with global economic recovery.
Vale has the best in-ground nickel assets with cost structure improvements underway to maximize value.
Flexibility in our nickel production, both in terms of product mix and volume, to meet the market needs.
Excellent growth potential to continue to provide nickel as one of the essential ingredients of people’s everyday lives far into the future.
In summary, Vale is positioned to remain a global nickel leader for many years to come
1
Pedro Gutemberg
Director of Iron Ore Marketing and R&D
Iron ore market outlook
Rio de Janeiro
September 2009
2
Disclaimer
“This presentation may include declarations about Vale's expectations
regarding future events or results. All declarations based upon future
expectations, rather than historical facts, are subject to various risks and
uncertainties. Vale cannot guarantee that such declarations will prove to be
correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors related to the following:
(a) the countries where Vale operates, mainly Brazil and Canada; (b) the global
economy; (c) capital markets; (d) the mining and metals businesses and their
dependence upon global industrial production, which is cyclical by nature; and
(e) the high degree of global competition in the markets in which Vale
operates. To obtain further information on factors that may give rise to results
different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports filed with the
Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), the French Autorité des
Marchés Financiers (AMF), and with the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC), including Vale’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20F
and its reports on Form 6K.”
3
Agenda
Company overview
Steel market outlook
Iron ore market outlook
Final comments
4
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Company Overview
5
Vale has the largest reserve base in the iron ore industry
¹ Proven and probable reserves, as of Dec, 2008.
6 mines
Northern System
7.2 Bi
13 mines 3.7 Bi
Southeastern System
10 mines 3.5 Bi
Southern System
Reserves (t)1
14.3 BiTOTAL VALE
96.5
116.4
80.5
2008Production (Mt)
293.4
6
Vale: products for the steel industry
Vale can deliver all the major inputs of the steel industry, with outstanding quality and reliability.
BF
Iron OreProducts
Coal
Coke plant
Coke
SM
SinterSinterFeed
BF Pellets
Lump
Crude steel
Pig iron
BOF Manganese & Mn Alloys
DR R
DRI
Crude steel
Nickel
DR Pellets
7
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Steel market outlook
8
Crude steel production has significantly recovered in recent months
Source: WSA
Crude steel production by regionReasons for steel production
improvement:
Better than expected economic indicators
Government incentives:- In the US the program “cash for clunkers”
have boosted the auto sector;- European countries adopted some programs
to stimulate auto sector;- Chinese stimulus package for infrastructure
and construction sectors;- Brazil: IPI (Tax on industrialized products)
reduction and improvement of credit conditions
End of de-stocking process in several markets
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-0
8Aug
-08Oct-
08Dec
-08Feb
-09Apr
-09Ju
n-09
Aug-09
EU 27
Americas
China
Asia Ex-China
9
Chinese steel production
Chinese crude steel production
(Mt) (YoY)
Steel production is running at record levels, driven by domesticconsumption in the absence of large export volumes in 2009.
YTD: ´09 - 370Mt´08 - 351Mt
Source: WSA
303540455055606570
Jan
Feb Mar AprMay Ju
n Jul
AugSep OctNovDec
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%2008 2009 Var YoY
10
020406080
100120140160
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-0
8Mar-
08May
-08Ju
l-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-0
9Mar-
09May
-09Ju
l-09
China Japan Europe USA Korea
020406080
100120140160
Sep-07
Nov-07
Jan-0
8Mar-
08May
-08Ju
l-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-0
9Mar-
09May
-09Ju
l-09
0510152025303540
Japan Europe USA Korea China
Auto Sales Construction
Sources: NBS, JAMA, ACEA, FED Sources: CEIC, METI, EUROSTAT, FED
Inde
x –S
ep /
07 =
100
Steel consumption
¹ Construction in China as a percentage of last period (YoY)
Inde
x –S
ep /
07 =
100
Stimulated by government incentives, end-users are showing signs of recovery
Aug-
09
¹(%YoY)
Aug-
09
11Source: NBS, Macquarie
Chinese fixed asset investment - % change yoy
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
Jan-2007 Jul-2007 Jan-2008 Jul-2008 Jan-2009
% c
hang
e yo
y
Total urbanReal estateInfrastructure
Chinese fixed asset investment (% YoY)
Chinese fixed asset investment is rising strongly because of massive credit expansion
Monetary/fiscal stimulus resulted in strong growth in construction FAI in China. Further expansion is now occurring in the property construction sector, which should provide further steam for steel consumption in coming years.
12
Chinese steel consumption
Chinese Apparent finished steel consumption
(Mt) (YoY)
The recovery has been strong, driven by massive government infrastructure spending, in a sustainable recovery process.
YTD: ´09 - 393Mt´08 - 325Mt
303540455055606570
Jan
Feb Mar AprMay Ju
n Jul
AugSep OctNovDec
0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
2008 2009 Var YoY
Source: WSA, Mysteel
13
Billet – EuropeanSource: Vale, SBB and Bloomberg
Steel priceHot rolled coilsBillet
Steel prices have recovered from bottom levels in recent months
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-0
9
Sep-09
US$
/ton
Europe USA
250
300
350
400
450
US$
/ton
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
14
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Iron ore market outlook
15
European seaborne imports expected to rebound in 2H09
2030405060708090
100110
2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09
Seaborne ImportsPig Iron ProductionReal steel consumption
Steel & iron ore de-stocking development in 2009
23456789
101112
2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09
Iron Ore Inventories (weeks)
Inde
x-b
ase
2Q08
= 1
00
Quarterly evolution IO inventory trend
forecast forecast
Positioned in the upstream of the supply chain, iron ore performs as a late cycle. In order to promote stock adjustments to new steel production levels, the swings of iron ore imports are much stronger than the variation of both steel consumption and pig iron production.
As a result, the severe importing contraction of 1H09 should be followed by relatively strong reaction in the 2H09, when some stock formation is expected.
Expected beginning of stock build up
Source: Eurofer, Eurostat and Vale estimates
16
Chinese iron ore imports have been very strong in 2009
In the first eight months of 2009 Chinese iron ore imports reached 405Mt, increasing 32% YoY, partially compensating the weaker demand in other regions.
Chinese iron ore imports
Source: Mysteel
20
30
40
50
60
Jan
Feb Mar AprMay Ju
n Jul
Aug
Sep OctNov
Dec
(Mt)
2007 2008 2009
17
Share of iron ore consumption in China
Share of imported ore is increasing in China
The share of imported ore in China has reached more than 70% of total consumption year to date in 2009.
2) Jan-Aug annualized figures
Source: Mysteel
1) Domestic concentrates adjusted to 65% Fe equivalent ore
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
(Mt)
30%
45%
60%
75%imported ore
domestic concentrates
share of imported ore
1
2
18
In spite of the increase in absolute terms, iron ore stocks in China remain relatively tight
According to August pig iron production, stock levels at the ports can only meet steel mill's demand for around 40 days.
Chinese iron ore stocks
Source: Mysteel
19
On the supply side:
large downward capacity adjustments were implemented by seaborne
suppliers in 1H09;
Lead times and monsoon period in India compromise quick pick up in
production volumes for the short term;
Additionally, higher domestic demand in regions such as Brazil, CIS and
USA may negatively affect seaborne ore availability.
On the demand side:
recovery of steel consumption is currently observed in several regions;
Additional volumes to meet restocking requirements in world ex-China;
Maintenance of solid demand in China.
A tight market situation is expected for 2H09
392
20
Iron ore pricesPremium for higher VIU of Vale´s iron ore has been recognized by the market, especially in periods when high productivity is required, such as today.
Source: Vale
Spot iron ore prices in China
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Jun-0
8Ju
l-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-0
9Aug
-09Sep
-09
US$
/dm
t
SFCJ Spot CFR China
Platts 62% Index
21
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Final comments
22
We continue to believe in the strong long term fundamentals for global iron ore demand;
We continue strongly committed to long term relationship with our clients;
We continue developing our projects;
We are implementing several logistic initiatives to reduce landed costs and increase our competitiveness in Asia:
- Investments in shipbuilding – creating a shuttle service to Asia.
- Further initiatives under analysis
Our long term market overview and strategy remains unchanged
23
Conclusion
Global economy is performing better than previously expected and steel production is accelerating in several regions, also helped by government stimulus packages.
Chinese steel consumption is on a sustainable growth path, and production should follow the trend accordingly.
Seaborne iron ore supply suffered large downward capacity adjustments in early 2009.
On the other hand, recovery in global demand for iron ore is broadening due to gradual acceleration of steel consumption combined with restocking requirements in several regions.
As a result, seaborne market is more balanced among the different demanding regions, leading to a tight situation in 2H09.
After the adjustments during worst part of the downturn, Vale is currently reaccelerating production to meet increasing seaborne demand in 2H09.
Vale´s strategy of long term commitment to its clients remains unchanged.
2
DEJM /DIOF / DIPFFerrous Minerals Planning and Development Department
Vale’s iron ore systems
Rio de JaneiroSeptember 2009
3
Outline
Current iron ore production structure
4
Vale’s iron ore systems at a glance
2718Pellets
293296Iron Ore
20082007Production (Mt)¹
¹ USGAAP
5
Reserves base
¹ Proven and probable reserves, as of December 2008.
VALE has the largest reserves base in the iron ore industry
6 mines
Northern System
7.2 Bi
13 mines 3.7 Bi
Southeastern System
10 mines 3.5 Bi
Southern System
Reserves (t)1
14.3 BiTOTAL VALE
Our proven reserves are capable of meeting the present demand for more than 40 years.
6
Vale’s iron ore logistics1 port and 3 maritime terminals for seagoing vessels: Tubarão, Ponta daMadeira, Guaíba and Itaguai.
2 world-class railroads – EFC and EFVM
GuaíbaItaguaí
7
Northern System
Current iron ore production structureIron ore production systems
96.591.7Iron Ore
20082007Production (Mt)¹
¹ USGAAP
8
Serra Sul
Serra Norte
Serra Leste
The Northern System is composed by 3 major iron ore deposits, called Serra Norte, Serra Sul and Serra Leste;
Presently, mining operations are carried out only at Serra Norte.
Northern System
Iron OreFormation
Key:
9
Carajás mining complex
10
Iron Ore: production doubled from 48 (2000) to 97 Mtpy (2008).
1 Billion tons in Oct/07
Northern System - historical production
48 52 54 5969 72
8292 97
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
million metric tons
11
General Information: . Length: 892 km (single track). 56 crossing yards. 62 bridges and overpasses. Train-type (2008):
4 locomotives and 330 cars. Net cargo: 33,000 t (SF) . Cars (total): 10,670 . Locomotives (total): 216. Cycle time: 90 h
CONTROL ROOM
Carajás railroad
12
Ships up to 155,000 dwtMaximum draft: 18mLoading rate: 8,000 t/h
PIER III
1 Vessel up to 250,000 dwt 2 Vessels up to 180,000 dwtDraft: 21 m
Northern System - Ponta da Madeira maritime terminal
Vessels up to 420,000 dwtDraft: 23 m
Vessels up to 155,000 dwtDraft: 18 m
PIER I PIER II
Ships up to 420,000 dwtMaximum draft: 23mLoading rate: 16,000 t/h
922008
MtShipping
13
Northern System - São Luis pelletizing plant
PRODUCTION CAPACITY: 7.0 Mtpy
Production (Mt) ¹
7.02008
7.12007
¹ USGAAP
14
MG
Current iron ore production structureIron ore production systems
Southeastern System:
116.4114.9Iron Ore
6.16.4Pelletizing Plants
20082007Production (Mt)¹
Southern System:
80.589.3Iron Ore
4.24.1Pelletizing Plants
20082007Production (Mt)¹
¹ USGAAP
15
Southern & Southeastern Systems
To Guaíba and Itaguaí maritime terminals
ATLANTICOCEAN
TubaraoPort
Guaíba &Itaguaí Ports
Minas Gerais
ES
RJ
Belo Horizonte
To Tubarao
Port
EFVM
FCA
MRS
Iron Ore Formation
BELOHORIZONTE
ITABIRA
OUROPRETO
BRUMADINHO
ITABIRITO
CONGONHAS
PIEDADECAPELA
HISTORICOPATRIMÔNIO
DA
N
BAÚ
FAZENDÃOALEGRIA
TIMBOPEBA
ÁGUA LIMPA
DOIS IRMÃOS
GONGO SOCO
CÓRREGO DO MEIO
FÁBRICA
FEIJÃO
CONCEIÇÃO
FÁBRICA NOVA
MINAS DO MEIO
ANDRADE
CAUÊ
CAPÃO XAVIER
MAR AZUL
ABÓBORAS
PICO
JANGADA
City or Town
Iron Ore Mine, Production Site or Vale’s Mining Rights
KEY
APOLO
TAMANDUÁCAP. DO MATO
VARGEM GRANDE
BRUCUTU
Iron ore quadrangle overview
Italic Font
Normal Font
16
Iron Ore: production increased from 71 (2000) to 116 Mtpy (2008).
71 70 73 76 8191
98
115 116
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
million metric tons
Southeastern System - historical production
17
Itabira complex
ROMMinas do Meio
18
Minas Centrais complex
19
Mariana complex
20
Urucum mine
Southeastern System
22
North BerthVessels up to 200,000 dwtDraft = 17 m
PIER 2Vessels up to 365,000 dwtDraft = 20 m
PIER 1
South BerthVessels up to 170,000 dwtDraft = 15.5 m
Tubarão port
Southeastern System
94
2008Mt
Shipping
23
Southeastern System - Pelletizing at Tubarão complex
JV with Posco
Companhia Nipo-Brasileira de PelotizaçãoNIBRASCO
JV with JSM
JV with ArcelorMittal
JV with Ilva
100% ValeI & II
15.4²6.4Pellets
20082007Production (Mt)¹
¹ USGAAP² Figures includes actual production, including production from four pellet plants we leased in 2008.
24
Iron Ore: production increased from 27 (2000) to 81 Mtpy (2008).
Southern System - historical production
27
46 4753
6170
8489
81
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
25
Itabirito complex
26
Vargem Grande complex
ROM
27
Paraopeba complex
28
Vale`s pipeline of iron ore projectsiron ore and pellets
1 The project is still subject to approval by the Board of Directors.2 Start-up is subject to market conditions.
Projects Capacity Expected Total capexMtpy start-up US$ million
Iron ore Carajás - additional 10 Mtpy +10 1H10 290 Carajás 130 Mtpy +30 1H12 2,478 Carajás Serra Sul (mine S11D)¹ +90 1H13 11,297 Apolo¹ +24 1H13 2,509
Pellets Oman +9.0 2H10 1,356 Tubarão VIII +7.5 1H11² 636
29
Ferrous minerals product portfolio - iron ore and pellets
Non-agglomerated iron ore products:- Sinter Feed;
- Pellet Feed;
- Lump Ore.
Agglomerated iron ore products:- Pellets for blast furnaces;
- Pellets for direct reduction.
Product Specifications:- Chemical assays (such as Fe, SiO2, Al2O3, P, Mn and LOI);
- Moisture (% H2O);
- Size distribution (such as +31.5 mm; -6.3 mm; -0.15 mm; -0.045 mm);
- Specific parameters (such as tumbler indexes ISO 3271).
30
Iron ore and pellets portfolio Examples of products
Sinter Feed- SFCJ - Sinter Feed Carajás- SSFT - Standard Sinter Feed Tubarão- SSFG - Standard Sinter Feed Guaíba
Pellet Feed- PFCJ - Pellet Feed Carajás- PFIT - Pellet Feed Iron Tubarão- PFFT - Pellet Feed Fines Tubarão- PFFG - Pellet Feed Guaíba
Lump Ore- LOBG - Lump Ore Blast Furnace Guaíba- LOBT - Lump Ore Blast Furnace Tubarão
Pellets- AF08 - Blast Furnace Standard Pellet- AF70 - Carajás Blast Furnace Pellet- AF40 - Blast Furnace Pellet Vargem Grande
31
Distribution by port
Iron ore - current portfolioExamples of products
11452Total
1LOBGLump ore (1)
3PFFGPFFTPFCJ
1PFITPellet feed (4)
2SFOGSFOT
1SFXT
2SSFGSSFT
1SFCJ
Sinter feed (6)
Number ofproducts
Guaíba + ItaguaíTubarãoPonta da
MadeiraOre type(number)
32
Expected quality (2009-2012)
Iron ore - current portfolioExamples of products