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Page 1: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

Join

t B

oar

d o

f Geo

spat

ial

Info

rma

tio

n S

oci

eti

es

Th

e V

alu

e o

f G

eo

info

rma

tio

n

for

Dis

ast

er

an

d R

isk

Ma

na

ge

me

nt

(VA

LID

)

Inte

rna

tio

na

l Co

un

cil

for S

cien

ce -

Geo

Un

ion

s

Page 2: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report
Page 3: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

Ed

ito

rs:

Orh

an A

ltan

, R

ob

ert

Bac

kh

aus,

Pie

ro B

occ

ard

o,

Fab

io G

iuli

o T

on

olo

, Jo

hn

Tri

nd

er,

Nie

ls v

an M

anen

, Si

si

Zla

tan

ova

Bo

ok

des

ign

: Nat

alie

Ep

ler

Pu

bli

shed

by

: Jo

int

Bo

ard

of

Geo

spat

ial

Info

rmat

ion

So

cie-

ties

(JB

GIS

)

Co

pyr

igh

t © In

tern

atio

nal

Co

un

cil f

or

Sci

ence

(IC

SU) -

Geo

-

Un

ion

s 201

3, Jo

int B

oar

d o

f Geo

spat

ial I

nfo

rmat

ion

So

ciet

ies

(JB

GIS

) 20

13,

Un

ited

Nat

ion

s O

#ce

fo

r O

ute

r Sp

ace

Af-

fair

s (O

OSA

) 20

13

Lau

nch

ed a

t th

e U

nit

ed N

atio

ns

O#

ce f

or

Ou

ter

Spac

e A

f-

fair

s (O

OSA

), V

ien

na,

Au

stri

a, o

n 3

Sep

tem

ber

201

3.

Th

e V

alu

e o

f G

eo

info

rmati

on

fo

r D

isaste

r an

d R

isk M

an

ag

em

en

t (V

AL

ID)

$is

pu

bli

cati

on

is

the

resu

lt o

f th

e co

llab

ora

tio

n o

f m

any

scie

nti

sts

wh

o a

re d

edic

ated

to

th

e im

ple

men

tati

on

of

geo

-sp

atia

l in

form

atio

n f

or

Dis

aste

r an

d R

isk

Man

agem

ent.

DIS

CL

AIM

ER

$e

des

ign

atio

ns

emp

loye

d a

nd

th

e p

rese

nta

tio

n o

f m

ater

ial

in t

his

pu

bli

cati

on

do

no

t im

ply

th

e ex

pre

ssio

n o

f an

y o

pi-

nio

n w

hat

soev

er o

n t

he

par

t o

f th

e se

cret

aria

t o

f th

e U

nit

ed

Nat

ion

s co

nce

rnin

g th

e le

gal s

tatu

s o

f an

y co

un

try,

ter

rito

ry,

city

or

area

or

its

auth

ori

ties

, or

con

cern

ing

the

del

imit

atio

n

of

its

fro

nti

ers

or

bo

un

dar

ies

rega

rdin

g it

s ec

on

om

ic s

yste

m

or

deg

ree

of

dev

elo

pm

ent.

Exc

erp

ts m

ay b

e re

pro

du

ced

wi-

tho

ut

auth

ori

zati

on

, on

co

nd

itio

n t

hat

th

e so

urc

e is

in

dic

a-te

d.

Vie

ws

exp

ress

ed i

n t

his

pu

bli

cati

on

do

no

t n

eces

sari

ly

re%

ect

tho

se o

f th

e U

nit

ed N

atio

ns

O#

ce f

or

Ou

ter

Spac

e A

&ai

rs, t

he

Un

ited

Nat

ion

s an

d it

s M

emb

er S

tate

s.

All

rig

hts

res

erve

d b

y:

Join

t B

oar

d o

f G

eosp

atia

l In

form

atio

n S

oci

etie

s

c/o

In

tern

atio

nal

Fed

erat

ion

of

Surv

eyo

rs (

FIG

)

K

alve

bo

d B

rygg

e 31

–33

DK

-178

0 C

op

enh

agen

/ D

EN

MA

RK

Tel

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38

86 1

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/ F

ax +

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8 86

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-mai

l: F

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FIG

.net

ww

w.'

g.n

et/j

bgi

s

Pu

bli

shed

in

En

glis

h i

n C

op

enh

agen

, Den

mar

k, I

SBN

978

-87

-909

07-8

8-4

Cre

dit

s to

tit

le p

ho

to: A

igu

ille

de

Tsa

, Den

t B

lan

che

nap

pe,

Sw

iss

Alp

s, b

y R

ola

nd

Ob

erh

änsl

i

Join

t B

oar

d o

f Geo

spat

ial

Info

rma

tio

n S

oci

eti

es

In

tern

ati

on

al C

ou

nci

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r Sci

ence

- G

eoU

nio

ns

Page 4: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

4

TH

E V

ALU

E O

F G

EO-I

NF

OR

MA

TIO

N F

OR D

ISA

ST

ER A

ND R

ISK M

AN

AG

EM

EN

T -

VA

LID

Spac

e-b

ased

in

form

atio

n c

an b

e a

very

use

ful r

eso

urc

e in

di-

sast

er m

anag

emen

t. S

atel

lite

s p

rovi

de

reli

able

an

d r

apid

ob

-

serv

atio

n t

oo

ls,

sup

po

rtin

g e&

ort

s in

em

erge

ncy

res

po

nse

as

wel

l as

in d

isas

ter-

risk

red

uct

ion

. Bu

t th

e ap

pli

cati

on

of

spac

e

tech

no

logy

to

dis

aste

r ri

sk m

anag

emen

t an

d e

mer

gen

cy r

es-

po

nse

is

a w

ide

and

co

mp

lex

'el

d. K

now

led

ge a

nd

exp

erti

se

are

wid

ely

dis

per

sed

, an

d i

nst

itu

tio

ns

and

pra

ctit

ion

ers

nee

d

ori

enta

tio

n to

acc

ess

and

use

ava

ilab

le d

ata

and

ser

vice

s. In

re-

cogn

itio

n o

f th

ese

nee

ds

the

Un

ited

Nat

ion

s G

ener

al A

ssem

-

bly

has

est

abli

shed

th

e U

nit

ed N

atio

ns

Pla

tfo

rm f

or

Spac

e-

bas

ed I

nfo

rmat

ion

fo

r D

isas

ter

Man

agem

ent

and

Em

erge

ncy

Res

po

nse

(U

N-S

PID

ER

) as

a p

rogr

am o

f th

e U

nit

ed N

atio

ns

O#

ce f

or

Ou

ter

Spac

e A

&ai

rs (

OO

SA),

wit

h t

he

man

dat

e to

“en

sure

th

at a

ll c

ou

ntr

ies

and

reg

ion

al o

rgan

izat

ion

s h

ave

ac-

cess

to a

nd

dev

elo

p th

e ca

pac

ity

to u

se a

ll ty

pes

of s

pac

e-b

ased

info

rmat

ion

to

su

pp

ort

th

e fu

ll d

isas

ter

man

agem

ent

cycl

e”

(res

olu

tio

n A

/RE

S/61

/110

of

14 D

ecem

ber

200

6).

As

on

e o

f

man

y co

ntr

ibu

tio

ns

to f

ul'

ll t

his

man

dat

e, O

OSA

has

pu

bli

s-

hed

, to

geth

er w

ith

th

e Jo

int

Bo

ard

of

Geo

spat

ial I

nfo

rmat

ion

Soci

etie

s (J

B G

IS),

th

e b

oo

kle

t en

titl

ed “

Geo

info

rmat

ion

fo

r

Dis

aste

r an

d R

isk

Man

agem

ent

– E

xam

ple

s an

d B

est

Pra

cti-

ces”

(C

op

enh

agen

201

0).

Mea

nw

hil

e,

incr

easi

ng

con

cern

ab

ou

t d

amag

e an

d

loss

es

cau

sed

by

dis

aste

rs t

rigg

ered

by

nat

ura

l h

azar

ds

has

led

to

com

pre

hen

sive

stu

die

s ex

plo

rin

g th

e ec

on

om

ic d

imen

sio

n o

f

dis

aste

rs, h

igh

ligh

tin

g th

e im

po

rtan

ce o

f e#

cien

t dis

aste

r ri

sk

man

agem

ent.

In

vie

w o

f th

is d

evel

op

men

t I

hig

hly

ap

pre

ciat

e

the

dec

isio

n o

f th

e JB

GIS

an

d t

he

UN

-SP

IDE

R t

eam

to

car

-

ry o

ut,

in

co

llab

ora

tio

n w

ith

sci

enti

sts

fro

m t

he

Un

iver

sity

of

Am

ster

dam

an

d w

ith

ad

dit

ion

al s

up

po

rt f

rom

th

e IC

SU G

eo-

Un

ion

s, a

glo

bal

in

terd

isci

pli

nar

y st

ud

y ad

dre

ssin

g q

ues

tio

ns

abo

ut

the

eco

no

mic

val

ue

and

th

e o

per

atio

nal

an

d s

trat

egic

ben

e'ts

that

can

be

real

ized

by

app

lyin

g ge

oin

form

atio

n in

ef-

fort

s in

all

ph

ases

of

the

dis

aste

r m

anag

emen

t cy

cle.

$e

'n

al

rep

ort

of

the

VA

LID

stu

dy

pro

vid

es b

ene'

t as

sess

men

t d

ata

as w

ell

as s

cien

ti'

c b

ack

gro

un

d i

nfo

rmat

ion

on

th

e re

spec

-

tive

geo

spat

ial

pro

du

cts

and

ser

vice

s. I

t is

par

tial

ly b

ased

on

a gl

ob

al s

take

ho

lder

su

rvey

wh

ich

was

fac

ilit

ated

by

the

UN

-

SPID

ER

co

nta

ct d

atab

ase,

in

clu

din

g th

e n

etw

ork

of

Nat

ion

al

Fo

cal P

oin

ts. I

ts r

esu

lts

clea

rly

show

the

emp

has

is g

iven

by

the

par

tici

pat

ing

use

r co

mm

un

ity

to t

he

app

lica

tio

n o

f ge

oin

for-

mat

ion

, n

ot

just

to

su

pp

ort

of

emer

gen

cy r

esp

on

se b

ut

also

to m

ap a

nd

mo

nit

or

risk

s, w

ith

ben

e'ci

al e

&ec

ts s

uch

as

re-

du

cin

g p

ub

lic

loss

es a

nd

su

pp

ort

ing

risk

red

uct

ion

str

ateg

ies.

$e

VA

LID

pro

ject

rep

ort

pro

vid

es o

rien

tati

on

ab

ou

t th

e

valu

e an

d i

mp

act

of

dis

aste

r-re

late

d g

eoin

form

atio

n, a

ccen

-

tuat

ing

the

chal

len

gin

g is

sue

of

pre

ven

tive

act

ion

. A

s th

e

form

er S

ecre

tary

Gen

eral

of

the

Un

ited

Nat

ion

s K

o'

An

nan

stat

ed in

199

9: “

Bu

ild

ing

a cu

ltu

re o

f p

reve

nti

on

is n

ot

easy

.

Wh

ile

the

cost

s o

f p

reve

nti

on

hav

e to

be

pai

d in

th

e p

rese

nt,

thei

r b

ene'

ts li

e in

a d

ista

nt

futu

re.”

I am

co

nvi

nce

d t

hat

th

e V

AL

ID p

roje

ct r

esu

lts

are

hel

pfu

l in

sup

po

rtin

g p

rogr

amm

atic

as

wel

l as

op

erat

ion

al d

ecis

ion

s

and

I a

m c

on

'd

ent

this

'n

al r

epo

rt w

ill

enjo

y w

ides

pre

ad

dis

trib

uti

on

am

on

g co

mm

un

itie

s w

ith

a r

ole

in d

isas

ter

ma-

nag

emen

t al

l o

ver

the

wo

rld

an

d t

hat

co

ncr

ete

app

lica

tio

ns

and

act

ion

s w

ill b

ene'

t fr

om

th

e p

rin

cip

les

and

rec

om

men

-

dat

ion

s o

f th

is r

epo

rt.

Ma

zlan

Oth

man

,

Dir

ecto

r of

th

e U

nit

ed N

atio

ns

O"

ce f

or O

ute

r Sp

ace

A#

airs

Page 5: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

5

TH

E V

ALU

E O

F G

EO-I

NF

OR

MA

TIO

N F

OR D

ISA

ST

ER A

ND R

ISK M

AN

AG

EM

EN

T -

VA

LID

$e

bo

ok

let,

Geo

info

rmat

ion

for

Dis

aste

r an

d R

isk

Man

age-

men

t -

Exa

mp

les

and

Bes

t P

ract

ices

, p

ub

lish

ed o

n J

uly

2n

d

2010

by

the

Join

t B

oar

d o

f G

eosp

atia

l In

form

atio

n S

oci

e-

ties

(JB

GIS

) an

d t

he

Un

ited

Nat

ion

s O

#ce

fo

r O

ute

r Sp

ace

A&

airs

(O

OSA

), o

utl

ined

th

e p

ote

nti

al u

ses

of

Geo

info

r-

mat

ion

tec

hn

olo

gies

fo

r re

du

cin

g th

e im

pac

t o

f n

atu

ral

or

man

mad

e d

isas

ters

an

d r

isk

s. I

t b

rou

ght

toge

ther

co

nci

se

scie

nti

'c

con

trib

uti

on

s fr

om

exp

erts

aro

un

d t

he

wo

rld

an

d

crea

ted

a d

ecis

ion

su

pp

ort

fo

rum

bas

ed o

n t

hei

r k

no

w-

led

ge.

$e

arti

cles

in

th

e b

oo

kle

t co

vere

d n

atu

ral

even

ts

such

as

eart

hq

uak

es,

%o

od

s, v

olc

ano

ou

tbre

aks,

tsu

nam

is,

lan

dsl

ides

, d

ust

sto

rms

and

wil

d'

res,

as

wel

l as

so

ciet

al i

s-

sues

su

ch a

s h

ealt

h c

are,

ref

uge

e ca

mp

s, u

rban

sp

raw

l an

d

tra#

c in

fras

tru

ctu

re s

ecu

rity

. C

ase

rela

ted

reg

ion

al s

tud

ies

are

com

ple

men

ted

by

pre

sen

tati

on

s o

f gl

ob

al i

nfo

rmat

ion

syst

ems.

$is

pu

bli

cati

on

aim

s to

rai

se a

war

enes

s am

on

gst

gove

rnm

ents

, dis

aste

r m

anag

emen

t p

rofe

ssio

nal

s an

d o

ther

dec

isio

n-m

aker

s, o

f th

e p

ote

nti

al u

ses

of

Geo

info

rmat

ion

tech

no

logi

es t

o r

edu

ce t

he

imp

act

of

nat

ura

l dis

aste

rs a

nd

to

assi

st in

su

pp

ort

of

dec

isio

n-m

akin

g in

all

ph

ases

of

dis

aste

r

man

agem

ent,

pre

ven

tio

n a

nd

mit

igat

ion

, as

wel

l as

imm

edi-

ate

resp

on

se a

nd

rec

ove

ry.

$e

seco

nd

pu

bli

cati

on

of

this

ser

ies,

wh

ich

is

bei

ng

pu

bli

s-

hed

by

the

JB G

IS, I

CSU

-Geo

Un

ion

s (I

nte

rnat

ion

al C

ou

nci

l

for

Sci

ence

-Geo

Un

ion

s) a

nd

OO

SA o

utl

ines

th

e p

ote

nti

al

'n

anci

al b

ene'

t o

f G

eoin

form

atio

n t

ech

no

logi

es u

sed

to

re-

du

ce t

he

imp

act

of

nat

ura

l o

r m

anm

ade

dis

aste

rs a

nd

ris

ks.

It c

on

tain

s ex

amp

les

and

cas

e st

ud

ies

of

Geo

info

rmat

ion

Tec

hn

olo

gies

res

ult

ing

fro

m d

i&er

ent

stak

eho

lder

ass

ess-

men

ts.

We

bel

ieve

th

at t

his

pu

bli

cati

on

wil

l co

ntr

ibu

te t

ow

ard

s h

ar-

mo

nio

us

co-e

xist

ence

of

hu

man

bei

ngs

an

d n

atu

re b

y cr

ea-

tin

g aw

aren

ess

of

po

ten

tial

nat

ura

l an

d m

an-m

ade

haz

ard

s

and

mea

sure

s th

at c

an b

e ta

ken

to

man

age

thei

r im

pac

ts.

Wil

liam

Car

twri

ght,

Ch

air,

JB

GIS

Ron

Abl

er, C

hai

r, I

CSU

-Geo

Un

ion

s

Geo

rg G

artn

er, I

CA

Ch

ris

Riz

os, I

UG

G –

IAG

Ch

eeH

ai T

eo, F

IG

Dav

id C

olem

an, G

SDI

Ton

y M

iln

e, I

EE

E-G

RSS

Vla

dim

ir K

olos

sov,

IG

U

Ch

en J

un

, ISP

RS

Rol

and

Obe

rhän

sli,

IU

GS

Ph

il W

ilki

nso

n, U

RSI

Orh

an A

ltan

, Coo

rdin

atin

g E

dit

or

Page 6: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

6

TH

E V

ALU

E O

F G

EO-I

NF

OR

MA

TIO

N F

OR D

ISA

ST

ER A

ND R

ISK M

AN

AG

EM

EN

T -

VA

LID

Tab

le o

f C

on

ten

ts

Pre

face

by

the

Un

ited

Nat

ion

s O

#ce

fo

r O

ute

r Sp

ace

A&

airs

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

....4

Pre

face

by

the

Join

t B

oar

d o

f G

eosp

atia

l In

form

atio

n S

oci

etie

s an

d t

he

Inte

rnat

ion

al C

ou

nci

l fo

r S

cien

ce-G

eoU

nio

ns

......

.5

1. I

ntr

od

uct

ion

.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

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......

......

.....

9

O

rhan

Alt

an, R

ober

t B

ackh

aus,

Pie

ro B

occa

rdo,

Nie

ls V

an M

anen

, Fab

io G

iulio

Ton

olo,

Joh

n T

rin

der

an

d S

isi Z

lata

nov

a

2. H

ow

to

det

erm

ine

the

eco

no

mic

val

ue

of

geo

info

rmat

ion

in

Dis

aste

r an

d R

isk

Man

agem

ent?

.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

..10

N

iels

van

Man

en, H

enk

Sch

olte

n, T

essa

Bel

infa

nte

an

d G

eorg

e C

ho

3. W

hat

are

th

e m

ost

im

po

rtan

t ge

oin

form

atio

n p

rod

uct

s an

d s

yste

ms

in D

isas

ter

and

Ris

k M

anag

emen

t? A

glo

bal

sta

ke-

ho

lder

ass

essm

ent

.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

...20

R

ober

t B

ackh

aus,

Nat

alie

Epl

er a

nd

An

a M

arti

nez

Mol

ina

4. W

hat

are

th

e o

per

atio

nal

an

d s

trat

egic

ben

e'ts

of

geo

info

rmat

ion

in

Dis

aste

r an

d R

isk

Man

agem

ent?

An

ap

pra

isal

fro

m

the

end

-use

rs’ a

nd

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs’ p

oin

t o

f vi

ew ..

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

...24

R

ober

t B

ackh

aus,

Ju

la H

eid

e an

d A

nn

e K

nau

er

4.

1 F

loo

d a

nd

%o

od

ris

k: M

app

ing,

mo

nit

ori

ng

and

dam

age

asse

ssm

ent

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

..33

Si

si Z

lata

nov

a

4.

2 E

arth

qu

ake

risk

an

alys

is a

nd

dam

age

asse

ssm

ent

.....

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

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....4

4

A

less

and

ro D

emar

chi

and

An

na

Fac

ello

Page 7: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

7

TH

E V

ALU

E O

F G

EO-I

NF

OR

MA

TIO

N F

OR D

ISA

ST

ER A

ND R

ISK M

AN

AG

EM

EN

T -

VA

LID

4.

3 D

rou

ght

haz

ard

ass

essm

ent

and

vu

lner

abil

ity

map

pin

g ...

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

...54

Ir

ene

An

gelu

ccet

ti a

nd

Fra

nce

sca

Per

ez

4.

4 F

ire

risk

map

pin

g an

d '

re d

etec

tio

n a

nd

mo

nit

ori

ng

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

....6

2

W

alth

er C

amar

o, S

ara

Ste

#en

ino

and

Ros

sell

a V

ign

a

4.

5 L

and

slid

e H

azar

d A

sses

smen

t ....

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

...77

Ir

ase

ma

Alc

ánta

ra A

yala

4.

6 G

eosp

atia

l dat

a p

rovi

sio

n a

nd

co

sts

asp

ects

....

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

...82

N

iels

van

Man

en a

nd

Joh

n T

rin

der

5. R

esu

lts

sum

mar

y an

d d

iscu

ssio

n ..

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

.85

R

ober

t B

ackh

aus

and

Joh

n T

rin

der

6. R

efer

ence

s ....

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

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......

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......

..89

7. A

nn

exes

A

nn

ex I

: Ch

apte

r 2

Qu

esti

on

nai

re ..

......

......

......

......

......

......

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......

......

......

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.....

98

A

nn

ex I

I: C

on

tact

in

form

atio

n o

f ed

ito

rs a

nd

au

tho

rs ..

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

......

.....

102

A

nn

ex I

II: P

ro'

les

of

con

trib

uti

ng

inst

itu

tio

ns .

......

......

......

......

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......

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......

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......

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......

......

.103

Page 8: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

8

Page 9: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

9

INT

RO

DU

CT

ION

11.

Intr

od

ucti

on

Orh

an A

ltan

, R

ober

t B

ackh

aus,

Pie

ro B

occa

rdo,

Nie

ls v

an

Man

en, F

abio

Giu

lio

Ton

olo,

Joh

n T

rin

der

an

d S

isi Z

lata

nov

a

Maj

or

dis

aste

rs c

ause

mas

sive

dis

rup

tio

n t

o s

oci

etie

s an

d

ove

rbu

rden

nat

ion

al e

con

om

ic s

yste

ms.

$o

usa

nd

s o

f p

eo-

ple

are

kil

led

an

d t

ens

of

tho

usa

nd

s m

ore

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dis

pla

ced

fro

m

thei

r h

om

es e

very

yea

r b

y n

atu

ral

dis

aste

rs t

rigg

ered

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sto

rms,

%o

od

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olc

anic

eru

pti

on

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arth

qu

akes

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any

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usa

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ore

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hei

r li

veli

ho

od

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d h

uge

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age

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cau

sed

to p

rop

erty

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win

dst

orm

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ear

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nam

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aged

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rt a

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mm

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isk

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ect

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man

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lth

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wev

er,

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imiz

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rab

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pro

per

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ld b

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ent,

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ly w

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d d

isas

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tect

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d m

on

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isk

ass

essm

ent

pro

vid

es i

nfo

rma-

tio

n a

bo

ut

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com

bin

ed e

&ec

t o

f h

azar

d a

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vu

lner

abil

i-

ty,

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g im

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ved

ris

k r

edu

ctio

n a

nd

mit

igat

ion

. $

e

ou

tco

me

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y w

arn

ing

is i

nfo

rmat

ion

on

th

e o

nse

t o

f

po

ten

tial

dis

aste

rs,

wh

ich

can

im

pro

ve p

rep

ared

nes

s in

th

e

a&ec

ted

are

a.

Ear

th o

bse

rvat

ion

can

hel

p t

o p

rovi

de

this

in

form

atio

n.

Tec

hn

olo

gies

fo

r p

roce

ssin

g, s

tori

ng,

an

alys

ing

and

vis

ua-

lisi

ng

geo

spat

ial

dat

a h

ave

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nce

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reat

ly i

n r

ecen

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lin

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uil

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atio

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lob

al S

pat

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ew d

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an c

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ute

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mo

nit

ori

ng

of

haz

ard

s, r

isk

red

uct

ion

an

d e

mer

gen

cy r

esp

on

se.

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ever

, th

ese

tech

no

logi

es a

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lly e

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ple

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ge s

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sfer

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m g

eo-

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rofe

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isio

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aker

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on

Dis

aste

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isk

Man

age-

men

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kgr

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lin

g th

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int

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ard

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rmat

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GIS

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atio

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ce o

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u-

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ited

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erge

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).

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log

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maj

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rate

th

e p

ote

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ssio

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d t

o o

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anag

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able

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ttp

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ww

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cem

ents

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htt

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atio

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isk

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agem

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lish

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GIS

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tio

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un

cil

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ence

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atio

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t w

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aliz

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y ap

ply

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geo

info

r-

mat

ion

to

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aste

r m

anag

emen

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-fo

ld a

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-

stic

as

wel

l as

det

aile

d v

iew

on

th

e b

ene'

ts o

f ge

oin

form

ati-

on

fo

r d

isas

ter

man

agem

ent

and

th

e b

est

po

ssib

le c

ove

rage

of

the

dis

aste

r m

anag

emen

t cy

cle.

In

an

eco

no

mic

ben

e't

anal

ysis

, det

aile

d b

y a

ded

icat

ed c

ase

stu

dy,

th

e m

on

etar

y as

-

pec

ts w

ere

add

ress

ed (

Ch

apte

r 2)

. In

par

alle

l, th

e k

no

wle

dge

and

pra

ctic

al e

xper

ien

ce o

f th

e gl

ob

al s

tak

eho

lder

co

mm

u-

nit

y w

as e

xplo

red

by

way

of

a w

eb-b

ased

su

rvey

(C

hap

ters

3 an

d 4

), t

he

resu

lts

of

wh

ich

are

pre

sen

ted

to

geth

er w

ith

info

rmat

ion

on

th

e as

sess

men

t o

f th

e sc

ien

ti'

c an

d t

ech

ni-

cal

asp

ects

of

the

geo

info

rmat

ion

pro

du

cts

(Ch

apte

rs 4

.1 t

o

4.5)

, an

d o

n t

he

cost

s as

pec

ts o

f ge

oin

form

atio

n p

rovi

sio

n

(Ch

apte

r 4.

6).

$e

ove

rall

res

ult

s o

f th

e st

ud

y ar

e su

mm

a-

rize

d a

nd

co

mm

ente

d i

n C

hap

ter

5.

$e

edit

ors

are

co

nvi

nce

d t

hat

th

is p

ub

lica

tio

n w

ill

shed

mo

re l

igh

t o

n t

he

spec

i'c

valu

e an

d i

mp

act

of

geo

info

rma-

tio

n w

hen

it

com

es t

o t

ack

lin

g th

e in

crea

sin

g ch

alle

nge

s o

f

nat

ura

l an

d m

an-m

ade

dis

aste

rs a

nd

ris

ks.

Page 10: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

10

TH

E E

CO

NO

MIC

IM

PA

CT O

F G

EO

INF

OR

MA

TIO

N O

N D

ISA

ST

ER A

ND R

ISK M

AN

AG

EM

EN

T

2 2.

Ho

w t

o d

ete

rmin

e t

he e

co

no

mic

valu

e o

f g

eo

info

rmati

on

in

Dis

aste

r an

d R

isk M

an

ag

em

en

t?

Nie

ls v

an M

anen

, Hen

k Sc

hol

ten

, Tes

sa B

elin

fan

te a

nd

Geo

rge

Ch

o

Rec

ent

stu

die

s h

ave

hig

hli

ghte

d t

he

vari

ety

of

way

s in

wh

ich

geo

info

rmat

ion

co

ntr

ibu

tes

to D

isas

ter

and

Ris

k M

anag

e-

men

t (D

RM

) p

ract

ices

. G

eoin

form

atio

n

and

as

soci

ated

tech

no

logi

es a

lso

pla

y a

cen

tral

par

t in

new

met

ho

ds

for

as-

sess

ing

cost

s an

d b

ene'

ts o

f D

RM

an

d o

f d

isas

ter

rela

ted

dam

ages

an

d l

oss

es.

Det

erm

inin

g th

e ec

on

om

ic v

alu

e o

f

geo

spat

ial

info

rmat

ion

in

DR

M i

tsel

f, h

ow

ever

, re

mai

ns

an

un

der

stu

die

d t

op

ic.

$e

eco

no

mic

im

pac

t o

f d

isas

ters

of

nat

ura

l o

rigi

n i

s p

ro-

fou

nd

an

d f

elt,

to

var

yin

g d

egre

es,

acro

ss t

he

glo

be.

Sin

ce

1970

, to

tal

dam

ages

cau

sed

by

all

haz

ard

s co

mb

ined

acc

u-

mu

late

to

ove

r $2

,300

bil

lio

n (

in 2

008

US

do

llar

s),

equ

iva-

len

t to

0.2

3 p

erce

nt

of

the

cum

ula

tive

wo

rld

ou

tpu

t. A

gra

d-

ual

bu

t cl

ear

up

war

d t

ren

d c

an b

e o

bse

rved

, w

hic

h i

s li

kel

y

to c

on

tin

ue

into

th

e fu

ture

du

e to

th

e im

pac

ts o

f cl

imat

e

chan

ge a

nd

po

pu

lati

on

gro

wth

in

are

as e

xpo

sed

to

nat

ura

l

haz

ard

s ($

e W

orl

d B

ank

/ U

nit

ed N

atio

ns,

201

0).

$er

e is

a w

idel

y h

eld

bel

ief

that

geo

spat

ial i

nfo

rmat

ion

an

d

asso

ciat

ed t

ech

no

logi

es c

an p

lay

a vi

tal r

ole

in r

ever

sin

g th

is

tren

d. $

is b

elie

f is

fu

eled

by

the

incr

easi

ng

amo

un

ts o

f ri

sk-

rela

ted

dat

a av

aila

ble

- c

ove

rin

g h

azar

d,

exp

osu

re a

nd

vu

l-

ner

abil

ity

- an

d r

apid

tec

hn

olo

gica

l d

evel

op

men

ts.

Dig

ital

map

s an

d r

elat

ed s

ervi

ces

are

po

wer

ful

too

ls f

or

scru

tin

iz-

ing

and

co

mm

un

icat

ing

the

com

ple

xiti

es o

f n

atu

ral h

azar

ds.

Bet

ter

info

rmat

ion

can

fac

ilit

ate

mo

re e

&ec

tive

dec

isio

ns

in d

isas

ter

resp

on

se,

reco

very

an

d r

edu

ctio

n p

ract

ices

. $

e

2007

Nat

ion

al R

esea

rch

Co

un

cil r

epo

rt S

ucc

essf

ul R

esp

on

se

Star

ts w

ith

a M

ap,

pu

bli

shed

in

th

e w

ake

of

9/11

an

d h

ur-

rica

ne

Kat

rin

a, m

ade

a p

ow

erfu

l ca

se f

or

esta

bli

shin

g in

th

e

USA

a s

yste

mat

ic g

eosp

atia

l in

form

atio

n i

nfr

astr

uct

ure

to

sup

po

rt d

isas

ter

man

agem

ent.

$e

join

t W

orl

d B

ank

/ U

nit

-

ed N

atio

ns

rep

ort

Nat

ura

l H

azar

ds,

Un

nec

essa

ry D

isas

ters

(201

0) s

imil

arly

ad

voca

ted

wo

rld

wid

e in

vest

men

ts i

n e

arly

war

nin

g sy

stem

s an

d o

ther

geo

info

rmat

ion

ser

vice

s. O

ther

stu

die

s h

igh

ligh

t th

e n

um

ber

of

serv

ices

alr

ead

y b

ein

g d

e-

plo

yed

to

go

od

e&

ect

at d

i&er

ent

stag

es o

f D

RM

(A

ltan

et

al.,

2010

).

In r

ecen

t ye

ars,

geo

spat

ial t

ech

no

log

y h

as in

dee

d b

eco

me

an

imp

ort

ant

com

po

nen

t in

res

po

nd

ing

to d

isas

ters

of

nat

ura

l

ori

gin

. In

th

e U

nit

ed S

tate

s, f

or

exam

ple

, man

y fe

der

al, s

tate

and

co

un

try

emer

gen

cy o

per

atio

ns

cen

tres

are

usi

ng

a co

m-

bin

atio

n o

f re

mo

te s

ensi

ng,

glo

bal

nav

igat

ion

sat

elli

te s

ys-

tem

s (G

NSS

) an

d g

eogr

aph

ic i

nfo

rmat

ion

sys

tem

s (G

IS)

to

det

erm

ine

the

mag

nit

ud

e an

d i

mp

act

of

dis

aste

rs o

f n

atu

ral

ori

gin

. G

eosp

atia

l te

chn

olo

gies

hav

e b

een

use

d t

o a

llo

cate

reso

urc

es i

n b

oth

th

e re

spo

nse

an

d r

eco

very

ph

ases

of

the

dis

aste

r m

anag

emen

t cy

cle,

bu

t th

e ex

per

ien

ces

hav

e b

een

mix

ed (

Ho

dgs

on

et

al.,

2010

; 201

3).

Fu

rth

erm

ore

, th

e su

cces

sfu

l d

eplo

ymen

t o

f ge

osp

atia

l se

r-

vice

s re

qu

ires

org

aniz

atio

nal

mea

sure

s an

d t

rain

ing,

o>

en

at c

on

sid

erab

le c

ost

, as

th

e re

qu

ired

dat

a is

sp

read

acr

oss

di&

eren

t in

stit

uti

on

s an

d t

he

pro

du

ctio

n o

f u

seab

le g

eoin

-

form

atio

n r

equ

ires

exp

ert

skil

ls. $

eref

ore

new

geo

info

rma-

tio

n p

rod

uct

s h

ave

to c

om

pet

e w

ith

oth

er D

RM

inve

stm

ents

and

eve

n t

he

con

tin

uat

ion

of

succ

essf

ul

exis

tin

g se

rvic

es i

s

by

no

mea

ns

a gi

ven

. Fo

r ex

amp

le, t

he

Ger

man

BIR

D s

atel

-

lite

mis

sio

n w

as d

edic

ated

to

wil

d '

re d

etec

tio

n a

nd

mo

ni-

tori

ng,

bu

t th

e p

rogr

am h

as b

een

dis

con

tin

ued

. A

t a

tim

e

wh

en p

ub

lic

'n

ance

s in

mo

st p

arts

of

the

wo

rld

are

ser

i-

Fig

ure

2.1

: Dam

age

on

th

e ri

se i

n t

he

last

tw

o d

ecad

es (

glo

bal

dam

age

fro

m h

azar

ds,

197

0-20

10)

($e

Wo

rld

Ban

k/

Un

ited

Nat

ion

s, 2

010)

Page 11: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

11

TH

E E

CO

NO

MIC

IM

PA

CT O

F G

EO

INF

OR

MA

TIO

N O

N D

ISA

ST

ER A

ND R

ISK M

AN

AG

EM

EN

T

2o

usl

y st

rain

ed, c

aref

ul

asse

ssm

ents

mu

st b

e m

ade

of

the

in-

vest

men

t re

turn

s o

f ea

ch g

eoin

form

atio

n s

ervi

ce. Y

et, u

nli

ke

man

y o

ther

asp

ects

of

DR

M,

the

eco

no

mic

s o

f ge

osp

atia

l

info

rmat

ion

ser

vice

s ar

e la

rgel

y u

nk

no

wn

.

$e

Ord

nan

ce S

urv

ey R

epo

rt (

OS)

(O

rdn

ance

Su

rvey

, 201

3)

on

th

e va

lue

of

OS

Op

enD

ataT

M t

o t

he

eco

no

my

of

Gre

at

Bri

tain

use

d a

co

mp

uta

ble

gen

eral

eq

uil

ibri

um

(C

GE

) m

od

-

el t

o a

sses

s th

e ec

on

om

ic v

alu

e ar

isin

g fr

om

th

e re

leas

e o

f

OS

Op

enD

ataT

M. $

e p

arti

cula

r C

GE

mo

del

use

d t

akes

in

to

acco

un

t tr

ade

%o

ws

wit

h o

ther

co

un

trie

s as

wel

l as

res

ou

rce

shi>

s w

ith

in G

reat

Bri

tain

. $

e m

od

el w

as c

ho

sen

to

ove

r-

com

e p

rob

lem

s w

ith

sim

ple

ben

e't/

mu

ltip

lier

ap

pro

ach

es

such

as

allo

win

g fo

r ch

ange

s in

mac

ro-e

con

om

ic a

ggre

gate

s

resu

ltin

g fr

om

ch

ange

s el

sew

her

e. $

e re

po

rt a

ckn

ow

led

ges

that

CG

E m

od

els

are

a re

cogn

ised

way

of

esti

mat

ing

eco

-

no

mic

val

ue

and

has

bee

n u

sed

by

the

Ban

k o

f E

ngl

and

.

Ho

wev

er, t

he

OS

(201

3) s

tud

y is

sta

tic

snap

sho

t o

f ec

on

om

ic

valu

e an

d d

oes

no

t es

tim

ate

dyn

amic

im

pac

ts.

Fu

rth

er,

the

dat

a fe

d i

nto

a C

GE

mo

del

to

est

imat

e th

e im

pac

ts r

elie

d o

n

dat

a fr

om

in

terv

iew

so

urc

es. $

e m

od

el is

dri

ven

by

a se

ries

of

assu

mp

tio

ns

and

dat

a ex

trap

ola

tio

ns,

is

no

t an

exa

ct s

ci-

ence

an

d t

he

resu

lts

sho

uld

be

inte

rpre

ted

mo

re q

ual

itat

ivel

y

than

qu

anti

tati

vely

.

$e

AC

IL T

asm

an (

2008

) st

ud

y o

f th

e va

lue

of

spat

ial

tech

-

no

log

y to

th

e A

ust

rali

an e

con

om

y at

tem

pte

d t

o e

stab

lish

the

aggr

egat

e ec

on

om

ic i

mp

act

of

spat

ial

tech

no

log

y in

an

eco

no

my.

$e

CG

E m

od

el w

as u

sed

to

cap

ture

th

e ge

osp

a-

tial

in

du

stry

fo

otp

rin

t th

rou

gho

ut

the

Au

stra

lian

eco

no

my

in t

erm

s o

f it

s im

pac

t o

n G

DP.

$is

met

ho

do

log

y o

&er

s an

emp

iric

al m

od

el o

f th

e ec

on

om

y-w

ide

imp

acts

of

geo

spat

ial

tech

no

log

y fo

cuss

ing

on

22

key

sec

tors

of

the

eco

no

my.

Wh

ile

the

resu

lts

ob

tain

ed f

rom

th

e tw

o C

GE

stu

die

s n

ote

d

abo

ve a

re n

ote

wo

rth

y, a

dra

wb

ack

of

the

CG

E f

ram

ewo

rk i

s th

e h

uge

dat

a re

qu

irem

ents

nec

essa

ry f

or

the

mo

del

to

per

-fo

rm e

&ec

tive

ly. $

is m

ay p

rove

a h

eavy

co

nst

rain

t in

man

y co

un

trie

s th

at la

ck a

dat

a in

fras

tru

ctu

re.

$e

pu

rpo

se o

f th

is c

hap

ter

is t

her

efo

re t

o e

valu

ate

wh

at

eco

no

mic

met

ho

ds

can

ass

ist

in d

e'n

ing

cost

an

d b

ene'

t as

-

sess

men

ts t

hat

can

be

mo

re u

niv

ersa

lly

app

lied

. $is

sh

ou

ld

ult

imat

ely

con

trib

ute

to

mo

re r

atio

nal

dec

isio

ns

in D

RM

spen

din

g.

Econom

ics o

f hazard

s o

f natu

ral origin

and

dis

aste

r m

anagem

ent

$e

eco

no

mic

val

uat

ion

of

geo

info

rmat

ion

in

DR

M -

her

e

de'

ned

as

cost

an

d l

oss

red

uct

ion

du

e to

bet

ter

dec

isio

ns

faci

lita

ted

by

geo

info

rmat

ion

- i

s p

art

of

a th

rivi

ng

'el

d o

f

stu

dy

dea

lin

g w

ith

th

e ec

on

om

ics

of

nat

ura

l h

azar

ds

and

dis

aste

r m

anag

emen

t. S

om

e o

f th

e fr

amew

ork

s d

evel

op

ed

in t

his

wid

er '

eld

can

be

fru

itfu

lly

app

lied

to

th

e ec

on

om

ic

asse

ssm

ent

of

geo

info

rmat

ion

. Bas

ed o

n a

sys

tem

atic

lit

era-

ture

su

rvey

, fo

ur

app

roac

hes

hav

e b

een

id

enti

'ed

:

Eva

luat

ion

of

the

dir

ect

and

in

dir

ect

loss

es c

ause

d b

y

di&

eren

t h

azar

d t

ypes

in

di&

eren

t p

arts

of

the

wo

rld

,

wit

h t

he

aim

to

su

pp

ort

dec

isio

ns

rega

rdin

g w

hic

h h

az-

ard

s to

tar

get

and

wh

ere

(e.g

. B

enso

n a

nd

Cla

y, 2

004;

$e

Wo

rld

Ban

k/

Un

ited

Nat

ion

s, 2

010;

Mu

nic

h R

e

Nat

Cat

SER

VIC

E D

atab

ase

of

loss

es f

rom

nat

ura

l dis

as-

ters

, 201

2);

Eva

luat

ion

of

the

eco

no

mic

co

sts

and

ret

urn

s o

f ri

sk

man

agem

ent

and

mit

igat

ion

mea

sure

s, w

ith

th

e ai

m

to o

pti

miz

e th

e ch

oic

e o

f p

reve

nti

on

mea

sure

s u

nd

er

di&

eren

t ci

rcu

mst

ance

s (e

.g.

Mu

nas

ingh

e an

d C

lark

e,

1995

; F

eder

al E

mer

gen

cy M

anag

emen

t A

gen

cy,

1997

;

Fed

eral

Em

erge

ncy

Age

ncy

, 19

98;

Smyt

h e

t al

., 20

02;

Mu

ltih

azar

d M

itig

atio

n C

ou

nci

l, 20

02;

Mec

hle

r, 2

003;

Ben

son

an

d T

wig

g, 2

004;

Ver

mei

ren

et

al.,

2004

);

Ass

essm

ent

of

the

'n

anci

al

arra

nge

men

ts

of

DR

M

acti

viti

es,

wit

h t

he

aim

to

op

tim

ize

the

regu

lari

ty,

e#-

cien

cy,

e&ec

tive

nes

s an

d t

ran

spar

ency

of

DR

M s

pen

d-

ing

(e.g

. Co

mer

io a

nd

Go

rdo

n, 1

998;

IN

TO

SAI,

201

3);

Ass

essm

ent

of

the

cost

s an

d b

ene'

ts o

f k

no

wle

dge

an

d

info

rmat

ion

in

aid

of

DR

M a

ctiv

itie

s, w

ith

th

e ai

m t

o

pri

ori

tize

sp

end

ing

on

in

form

atio

n s

ervi

ces

wit

h t

he

grea

test

ret

urn

(e.

g. S

tew

art,

199

7; W

illi

amso

n e

t al

.,

2001

; N

atio

nal

O

cean

ic

and

A

tmo

sph

eric

A

dm

inis

-

trat

ion

et

al.,

2002

; W

illi

amso

n e

t al

., 20

03;

Eb

i et

al.,

2004

).

Ou

r st

ud

y is

clo

sely

rel

ated

to

th

e la

st o

f th

ese,

bu

t th

e o

ther

app

roac

hes

als

o p

rovi

de

valu

able

in

sigh

ts.

$e

'rs

t p

ro-

mo

tes

stan

dar

diz

atio

n o

f p

ost

-dis

aste

r d

amag

e an

d n

eed

s

asse

ssm

ents

. $

is h

elp

s th

e ec

on

om

ic a

sses

smen

t o

f ge

o-

info

rmat

ion

, b

ecau

se u

nif

orm

rec

ord

ing

of

dam

ages

(w

ith

iden

tica

l ca

tego

riza

tio

n o

f ec

on

om

ic s

ecto

rs)

mak

es i

t p

os-

sib

le t

o c

on

du

ct c

om

par

ativ

e as

sess

men

ts o

f th

e (p

ote

nti

al)

con

trib

uti

on

of

geo

info

rmat

ion

ser

vice

s to

dam

age

red

uc-

tio

n p

er s

ecto

r. $

is i

s in

dee

d a

n i

mp

ort

ant

pre

req

uis

ite

for

exte

nd

ing

the

exp

erim

enta

l m

eth

od

ap

pli

ed h

ere

to o

ne

case

to

oth

er d

isas

ter

inci

den

ts.

$e

seco

nd

ap

pro

ach

als

o

bo

ost

s th

e p

ote

nti

al fo

r ec

on

om

ic e

valu

atio

n o

f geo

info

rma-

tio

n,

bec

ause

mo

st g

eoin

form

atio

n s

ervi

ces

are

rela

ted

to

a

spec

i'c

stag

e o

f D

RM

, so

met

imes

a s

pec

i'c

pre

ven

tio

n a

c-

tivi

ty.

By

scru

tin

izin

g th

e re

turn

of

inve

stm

ent

of

di&

eren

t

reli

ef, r

eco

very

an

d m

itig

atio

n p

ract

ices

, th

is b

od

y o

f w

ork

s

hel

ps

to p

rio

riti

ze g

eoin

form

atio

n p

rod

uct

s th

at c

on

trib

ute

to p

ract

ices

wit

h t

he

hig

hes

t p

ote

nti

al r

etu

rns.

$is

is in

dee

d

ho

w,

for

this

ch

apte

r, a

n e

arly

war

nin

g sy

stem

was

ch

ose

n

for

the

Nam

ibia

n %

oo

d c

ase

(see

sec

tio

n 2

.2).

$e

thir

d a

p-

pro

ach

hig

hli

ghts

th

at t

he

'n

anci

al a

rran

gem

ent

and

in

de-

pen

den

t au

dit

ing

of

DR

M a

ctiv

itie

s h

ave

eco

no

mic

imp

acts

,

by

stre

ngt

hen

ing

or

un

der

min

ing

tru

st i

n t

he

loca

l m

ark

et

bef

ore

an

d a

>er

dis

aste

r in

cid

ents

. Si

nce

th

e In

tern

atio

nal

Org

aniz

atio

n o

f Su

pre

me

Au

dit

In

stit

uti

on

s is

act

ivel

y p

ro-

mo

tin

g th

e u

se o

f ge

oin

form

atio

n p

rod

uct

s in

DR

M a

ud

its

(IN

TO

SAI,

201

3),

this

wil

l b

e an

im

po

rtan

t av

enu

e fo

r fu

-

ture

res

earc

h r

egar

din

g th

e ec

on

om

ics

of

geo

info

rmat

ion

.

$e

fou

rth

ap

pro

ach

, mo

st c

lose

ly a

lign

ed t

o o

ur

ow

n s

tud

y,

has

th

us

far

focu

sed

on

th

e ec

on

om

ic c

on

trib

uti

on

s o

f fo

re-

Page 12: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

12

TH

E E

CO

NO

MIC

IM

PA

CT O

F G

EO

INF

OR

MA

TIO

N O

N D

ISA

ST

ER A

ND R

ISK M

AN

AG

EM

EN

T

2 cast

ing

tech

niq

ues

in t

he

con

text

of

wea

ther

rel

ated

ext

rem

e

even

ts (

hu

rric

anes

, %

oo

ds,

hea

t w

aves

). $

ese

stu

die

s h

elp

-

full

y sh

ow

th

at

eco

no

mic

ev

alu

atio

n

of

geo

info

rmat

ion

pro

du

cts

sho

uld

fo

cus

on

ho

w t

hes

e ar

e u

sed

in

th

e co

nte

xt

of

DR

M b

ecau

se t

hei

r u

se i

n%

uen

ces

the

dec

isio

ns

that

ult

i-

mat

ely

a&ec

t th

e ec

on

om

y. $

ese

sam

e st

ud

ies

also

hig

hli

ght

the

chal

len

ges

of

app

lyin

g a

con

ven

tio

nal

co

st a

nd

ben

e't

anal

ysis

to

a g

eoin

form

atio

n s

ervi

ce.

Wh

ile

an i

ntr

acta

-

ble

pro

ble

m,

at t

he

cost

sid

e, i

t is

o>

en h

ard

to

det

erm

ine

wh

ich

par

t o

f th

e co

sts

sho

uld

be

allo

cate

d t

o D

RM

usa

ge,

sin

ce m

ost

ser

vice

s ar

e al

so u

sed

fo

r o

ther

pu

rpo

ses.

At

the

ben

e't

sid

e, t

he

esti

mat

ed d

amag

e re

du

ctio

n o

r ec

on

om

ic

gro

wth

th

at w

ou

ld b

e ga

ined

wer

e an

e&

ecti

ve g

eoin

form

a-

tio

n s

ervi

ce a

vail

able

, is

inev

itab

ly m

od

eled

on

a f

uzz

y ‘w

hat

– i

f’ s

cen

ario

.

Eve

n i

f a

mo

net

ary

valu

e co

uld

be

ob

tain

ed t

he

mea

sure

is

a re

lati

ve o

ne

and

can

no

t b

e u

sed

in

a c

om

par

ativ

e an

alys

is,

as t

he

cost

an

d b

ene'

ts o

f p

rod

uci

ng,

dep

loyi

ng

and

mai

n-

tain

ing

geo

info

rmat

ion

ser

vice

s va

ry g

reat

ly d

epen

din

g o

n

wh

ere

in t

he

wo

rld

it

is d

on

e an

d a

t w

hat

sca

le a

nd

als

o b

e-

twee

n d

i&er

ent

serv

ices

. F

urt

her

mo

re,

even

if

CB

A w

ere

to

be

app

lied

in D

RM

act

ivit

ies

the

dat

a n

eed

s ca

n b

e d

escr

ibed

as ‘d

ata-

hu

ngr

y’ –

so

met

hin

g w

hic

h i

s ei

ther

un

avai

lab

le o

r

in a

po

or

stat

e to

be

use

d f

or

mo

del

lin

g re

qu

ired

. Fin

ally

, as

wil

l be

sho

wn

in t

he

Nam

ibia

cas

e, s

uch

mo

del

ing

req

uir

es a

sim

pli

'ca

tio

n o

f th

e im

pac

t o

f th

e ge

oin

form

atio

n p

rod

uct

– “

than

ks

to t

his

pro

du

ct w

e w

ou

ld h

ave

x h

ou

rs/

day

s ex

tra

avai

lab

le t

o c

on

du

ct e

vacu

atio

n a

ctiv

itie

s” –

th

at i

s h

ard

to

bac

k u

p w

ith

em

pir

ical

evi

den

ce.

Bea

rin

g th

ese

chal

len

ges

in m

ind

, it

is i

mp

ort

ant

to e

xplo

re

ho

w w

e m

ay t

wea

k t

he

con

ven

tio

nal

CB

A w

ith

insi

ghts

fro

m

oth

er e

con

om

ic i

mp

act

asse

ssm

ents

. A

nu

mb

er o

f st

arti

ng

po

ints

can

be

de'

ned

. Fir

stly

, eco

no

mic

im

pac

t st

ud

ies

em-

plo

y ri

goro

us

con

cep

tual

fra

mew

ork

s th

at e

valu

ate

bo

th t

he

dir

ect

'n

anci

al i

mp

act

as w

ell

as t

he

eco

no

mic

ext

ern

alit

ies

that

are

lik

ely

to o

ccu

r. F

or

exam

ple

, $

e W

orl

d B

ank

an

d

the

Mil

len

niu

m C

hal

len

ge C

orp

ora

tio

n (

Mil

len

niu

m C

hal

-

len

ge C

orp

ora

tio

n, 2

008)

hav

e u

sed

var

iou

s m

od

els

to e

val-

uat

e p

ote

nti

al i

nve

stm

ents

in

lan

d a

dm

inis

trat

ion

pro

ject

s.

Seco

nd

ly, m

ult

ilat

eral

dev

elop

men

t org

anis

atio

ns

and

dev

elop

-

men

t b

anks

hav

e co

mbi

ned

qu

anti

tati

ve a

nd

qu

alit

ativ

e m

et-

rics

in

ass

essi

ng

pot

enti

al l

and

pro

ject

s. S

ome

com

mon

mea

-

sure

s in

clu

de

the

use

of

net

pre

sen

t va

lue

(NP

V)

esti

mat

ion

s,

'n

anci

al i

nte

rnal

rat

e of

ret

urn

(F

IRR

), a

nd

eco

nom

ic r

ate

of

retu

rn (

ER

R).

Of t

hes

e, E

RR

ap

pea

rs m

ost

use

ful i

n th

at r

ates

of

retu

rns

can

be

det

erm

ined

an

d t

hat

bot

h t

he

exp

ecte

d p

osi

tive

and

neg

ativ

e ex

tern

alit

ies

asso

ciat

ed w

ith

th

e p

roje

ct a

re c

on-

sid

ered

. Hig

h E

RR

val

ues

su

gges

t a

pro

ject

wil

l hav

e a

sub

stan

-

tial

eco

nom

ic r

etu

rn. A

10

% E

RR

or

mor

e su

gges

ts a

pro

ject

may

be

wor

thy

of in

vest

men

t.

$ir

dly

, ch

oice

of m

od

el is

cri

tica

l bu

t th

ere

are

no

‘silv

er b

ulle

t’

solu

tion

s as

som

e m

od

els

shou

ld b

e ta

ilor

ed to

res

olve

par

ticu

-

lar

issu

es a

nd

ass

esse

d o

n a

cas

e-by

-cas

e b

asis

. Wh

iteh

ead

an

d

Mar

bel

l (20

13)

focu

ssed

on

th

e ec

onom

ic r

ate

of r

etu

rn (

ER

R)

calc

ula

tion

s as

a c

rite

rion

for

th

e as

sess

men

t of

th

e ec

onom

ic

viab

ilit

y of

pro

ject

s.

$e

nex

t se

ctio

ns

wil

l fu

rth

er e

xam

ine

ho

w t

he

con

ven

tio

n-

al C

BA

may

be

revi

sed

to m

ake

it m

ore

su

itab

le fo

r ge

oin

for-

mat

ion

ser

vice

s fo

r D

RM

. Bef

ore

do

ing

so, i

t is

imp

ort

ant

to

stre

ss t

hat

th

ere

are

do

wn

sid

es t

o a

str

ictl

y ec

on

om

ic a

sses

s-

men

t. E

con

om

ic i

nd

icat

ors

do

no

t eq

ual

hu

man

wel

l-b

ein

g.

$er

efo

re,

cost

-ben

e't

anal

ysis

is

on

e m

eth

od

fo

r gr

asp

ing

the

avai

lab

le o

pti

on

s, b

ut

no

t a

road

map

th

at d

icta

tes

wh

at

sho

uld

be

do

ne,

esp

ecia

lly

as t

he

imp

acts

are

lik

ely

to b

e fe

lt

very

di&

eren

tly

by

di&

eren

t co

mm

un

itie

s an

d i

nd

ivid

ual

s

and

th

eref

ore

a p

oli

tica

l p

roce

ss o

f d

ecis

ion

mak

ing,

in

par

t

bas

ed o

n n

on

-eco

no

mic

co

nsi

der

atio

ns,

mu

st t

ake

pla

ce

($e

Wo

rld

Ban

k/

Un

ited

Nat

ion

s, 2

010)

. It

is w

ith

th

is p

hi-

loso

ph

y in

min

d, t

hat

th

e ec

on

om

ic e

valu

atio

n o

f ge

osp

atia

l

info

rmat

ion

in

DR

M w

ill b

e ex

plo

red

fu

rth

er.

Econom

ics o

f geoin

form

ation

Eco

no

mic

ass

essm

ent

of

geo

info

rmat

ion

can

be

con

du

cted

at t

wo

lev

els.

Eit

her

th

e co

st a

nd

ret

urn

of

geo

info

rmat

ion

serv

ices

fo

r d

isas

ter

man

agem

ent

as a

wh

ole

can

be

eval

u-

ated

($

e B

ost

on

Co

nsu

ltan

cy G

rou

p,

2012

; O

xera

, 20

13),

or

the

cost

an

d r

etu

rn o

f sp

eci'

c se

rvic

es,

for

spec

i'c

com

-

po

nen

ts o

f D

RM

can

be

asse

ssed

. $e

form

er c

an b

oo

st t

he

wil

lin

gnes

s am

on

g p

ub

lic

and

pri

vate

par

ties

in

volv

ed i

n

DR

M t

o i

nve

st i

n t

his

kin

d o

f in

form

atio

n.

Ho

wev

er,

sin

ce

this

gen

eral

wil

lin

gnes

s is

alr

ead

y st

ron

g in

th

e D

RM

sec

tor,

the

focu

s h

ere

wil

l be

on

eva

luat

ing

spec

i'c

geo

info

rmat

ion

serv

ices

. $is

can

ass

ist

DR

M o

rgan

izat

ion

s to

dec

ide

mo

re

rati

on

ally

on

wh

ich

ser

vice

to

in

vest

in

wit

h t

he

grea

test

chan

ce o

f re

turn

. $is

ch

apte

r w

ill

dea

l w

ith

th

e (p

ote

nti

al)

ben

e'ts

; m

ore

wil

l b

e sa

id o

n t

he

cost

s in

ch

apte

r 4.

6. $

e

focu

s w

ill b

e o

n t

he

eco

no

mic

ad

van

tage

s to

DR

M a

ctiv

itie

s

on

ly; a

co

mp

reh

ensi

ve e

valu

atio

n w

ou

ld r

equ

ire

to a

lso

co

n-

sid

er t

he

eco

no

mic

act

ivit

ies

stem

min

g fr

om

th

e p

rod

uct

ion

and

dis

trib

uti

on

of

the

geo

info

rmat

ion

ser

vice

s th

emse

lves

.

Tec

hn

olo

gies

th

emse

lves

do

no

t re

sult

in

a r

edu

ctio

n i

n

dam

ages

an

d l

oss

es;

it i

s th

e b

ette

r d

ecis

ion

s, f

acil

itat

ed b

y

thei

r u

se, w

hic

h c

an b

rin

g th

is a

bo

ut.

$e

focu

s is

th

eref

ore

on

th

e ec

on

om

ic im

pac

t o

f b

ette

r d

ecis

ion

s fa

cili

tate

d b

y th

e

use

of

geo

info

rmat

ion

alt

ern

ativ

es fo

r cu

rren

t se

rvic

es (

Fri

tz

et a

l., 2

008;

Kre

k a

nd

Fra

nk

, 199

9) (

Fig

. 2.2

).

Fig

ure

2.2

: F

low

ch

art

of

(geo

)in

form

atio

n i

mp

act

(Fri

tz e

t

al.,

2008

)

Page 13: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

13

TH

E E

CO

NO

MIC

IM

PA

CT O

F G

EO

INF

OR

MA

TIO

N O

N D

ISA

ST

ER A

ND R

ISK M

AN

AG

EM

EN

T

2St

ud

ies

that

an

alyz

e th

e va

lue

of

info

rmat

ion

fal

l b

road

ly

into

fo

ur

fram

ewo

rks:

(1)

th

e ec

on

om

etri

c es

tim

atio

n o

f

ou

tpu

t o

r p

rod

uct

ivit

y ga

ins

du

e to

info

rmat

ion

; (2)

hed

on

ic

pri

cin

g st

ud

ies,

ass

um

ing

the

valu

e o

f in

form

atio

n i

s ca

p-

ture

d i

n t

he

pri

ces

of

goo

ds

or

serv

ices

; (3)

co

nti

nge

nt

valu

-

atio

n s

urv

eys,

wh

ich

rel

y o

n t

he

Wil

lin

gnes

s to

Pay

pri

nci

ple

(Mac

aule

y, 2

005)

; (4

) co

st a

void

ance

stu

die

s, b

ased

on

an

esti

mat

ion

of

e#ci

ency

gai

n o

r lo

ss r

edu

ctio

n. $

e p

ote

nti

al

of

each

met

ho

d f

or

asse

ssin

g ge

osp

atia

l in

form

atio

n i

n a

id

of

DR

M i

s b

rie%

y re

view

ed.

$e

'rs

t m

eth

od

is

par

ticu

larl

y u

sefu

l fo

r es

tim

atin

g th

e

eco

no

mic

b

ene'

t o

f re

du

ced

u

nce

rtai

nty

. F

or

exam

ple

,

stu

die

s re

gard

ing

the

imp

act

of

wea

ther

fo

reca

stin

g (a

geo

-

spat

ial

tech

no

log

y) o

n a

gric

ult

ura

l o

utp

ut

ten

d t

o a

do

pt

this

pro

du

ctiv

ity-

gain

ass

essm

ent

(Mac

aule

y, 2

005)

. T

ypi-

call

y in

th

ese

stu

die

s, f

arm

pro

'ts

un

der

ave

rage

bu

t u

n-

cert

ain

wea

ther

pat

tern

s ar

e co

mp

ared

wit

h f

arm

pro

'ts

if r

ain

co

uld

be

accu

rate

ly f

ore

cast

ed.

A c

om

pil

atio

n o

f

exem

pla

ry s

tud

ies

incl

ud

e th

e o

pti

miz

atio

n o

f p

rod

uct

ion

leve

ls

acco

rdin

g to

p

roje

cted

te

mp

erat

ure

s o

r p

reci

pit

a-

tio

n r

ates

(Jo

hn

son

an

d H

olt

, 19

86).

Oth

er w

eath

er-r

elat

ed

sect

ors

su

ch a

s en

erg

y (R

ou

lsto

n e

t al

., 20

03)

and

avi

atio

n

safe

ty (

Mac

aule

y, 2

005)

, ca

n s

imil

arly

op

tim

ize

thei

r o

ut-

pu

t o

r p

rod

uct

ivit

y le

vels

. W

ith

in t

he

con

text

of

DR

M,

the

met

ho

d i

s su

itab

le f

or

geo

spat

ial

tech

no

logi

es r

elat

ed t

o t

he

fore

cast

ing

of

hyd

ro-m

eteo

rolo

gica

l haz

ard

s, b

ut

no

t fo

r th

e

full

sp

ectr

um

of

tech

no

logi

es a

nd

haz

ard

s. I

n t

he

pre

sen

t

exp

lora

tive

stu

dy

that

aim

s to

de'

ne

a co

mp

arat

ive

met

h-

od

olo

gy

suit

able

fo

r d

i&er

ent

geo

info

rmat

ion

ser

vice

s, t

he

met

ho

d o

f es

tim

atin

g ec

on

om

ic b

ene'

t o

f re

du

ced

un

cer-

tain

ty w

ill n

ot

be

ado

pte

d.

$e

seco

nd

fra

mew

ork

, b

ased

on

hed

on

ic p

rici

ng

anal

ysis

,

is s

uit

ed f

or

eval

uat

ing

wh

eth

er k

no

wle

dge

ab

ou

t th

e h

az-

ard

-pro

nen

ess

of

an a

rea

a&ec

ts t

he

pri

ces

of

lan

d,

goo

ds

and

ser

vice

s. H

edo

nic

pri

cin

g m

od

els

atte

mp

t to

id

enti

fy

pri

ce f

acto

rs o

n t

he

pre

mis

e th

at p

rice

can

be

det

erm

ined

by

the

inh

eren

t ch

arac

ter

of

the

goo

d b

ein

g so

ld a

nd

th

e ex

ter-

nal

fac

tors

th

at a

&ec

t it

. A c

om

mo

n e

xam

ple

is

the

ho

usi

ng

mar

ket

wh

ere

the

pri

ce o

f a p

rop

erty

is d

eter

min

ed b

y al

l th

e

char

acte

rist

ics

of

the

ho

use

in

clu

din

g it

s fe

atu

res,

lo

cati

on

,

age

and

bu

ild

qu

alit

y to

geth

er w

ith

th

e ch

arac

teri

stic

s o

f it

s

rela

tive

lo

cati

on

to

sch

oo

ls, s

ho

ps,

tra

nsp

ort

lin

ks.

Hed

on

ic

pri

cin

g m

od

els

esti

mat

e th

e ex

ten

t to

wh

ich

eac

h o

f th

e fa

c-

tors

iden

ti'

ed a

&ec

t th

e p

rice

. An

ad

van

tage

of

this

mo

del

is

that

it m

ay b

e u

sed

to

est

imat

e th

e ap

pro

xim

ate

valu

es b

ased

on

act

ual

ch

oic

es o

f p

eop

le a

nd

th

e re

al e

stat

e m

ark

et g

ives

a

goo

d in

dic

atio

n o

f val

ues

rel

ativ

e to

pro

per

ty s

ales

an

d o

ther

dat

a. C

om

par

ativ

e an

alys

is c

ou

ld t

hen

be

un

der

tak

en.

$e

maj

or

lim

itat

ion

to

th

is t

ech

niq

ue

is t

he

fact

th

at t

her

e

o>

en i

s n

o m

ark

et v

alu

e av

aila

ble

fo

r k

ey a

sset

s b

ecau

se, e

i-

ther

th

e n

atu

re o

f th

e at

trib

ute

th

at i

s im

pac

ted

by

info

rma-

tio

n m

akes

it d

i#cu

lt t

o p

ut

a m

on

etar

y '

gure

on

, fo

r ex

am-

ple

a n

atu

re p

ark

, o

r th

e im

pac

t o

f in

form

atio

n o

n p

rici

ng

is d

i#cu

lt t

o t

race

bac

k a

nd

th

eref

ore

is

di#

cult

to

cap

ture

.

$e

amo

un

t o

f d

ata

req

uir

ed w

ou

ld a

lso

be

very

larg

e. O

>en

it i

s n

ot

feas

ible

to

en

sure

th

at e

very

on

e h

vas

pri

or

kn

ow

l-

edge

of

bo

th t

he

po

siti

ve a

nd

neg

ativ

e ex

tern

alit

ies

imp

ing-

ing

on

a p

arti

cula

r at

trib

ute

. $

e av

aila

bil

ity

of

dat

a ca

n a

f-

fect

th

e am

ou

nt

of

tim

e an

d e

xpen

se n

eed

ed t

o a

pp

ly s

uch

a

mo

del

. In

th

e '

nal

an

alys

is t

he

inte

rpre

tati

on

of

the

resu

lts

fro

m t

he

mo

del

can

be

com

ple

x an

d t

her

e is

a n

eed

fo

r so

-

ph

isti

cate

d s

tati

stic

al k

no

wle

dge

an

d e

xper

tise

in

its

use

.

$e

thir

d m

eth

od

, a

con

tin

gen

t va

luat

ion

su

rvey

, m

akes

use

of

the

con

cep

t W

illi

ngn

ess

to P

ay (

WT

P).

$e

amo

un

t

peo

ple

are

wil

lin

g to

pay

fo

r a

cert

ain

pro

du

ct o

r se

rvic

e is

then

tra

nsl

ated

to

th

e va

lue

of

this

pro

du

ct o

r se

rvic

e. $

is

is a

su

rvey

-bas

ed t

ech

niq

ue

that

att

emp

ts t

o p

ut

a va

lue

on

no

n-m

ark

et r

eso

urc

es s

uch

as

the

envi

ron

men

t, w

ater

po

l-

luti

on

an

d t

he

imp

act

of

con

tam

inat

ion

. Wh

ile

ther

e m

igh

t

be

uti

lity

to

be

der

ived

fro

m t

hes

e, s

om

e as

pec

ts o

f th

e en

-

viro

nm

ent

do

no

t h

ave

a m

ark

et p

rice

as

they

are

no

t so

ld

dir

ectl

y. A

sce

nic

vis

ta m

igh

t n

ot

hav

e a

mar

ket

pri

ce a

nd

con

tin

gen

cy v

alu

atio

n t

ech

niq

ues

mig

ht

be

use

d t

o m

easu

re

thes

e as

pec

ts. $

e d

i#cu

lty

of

ob

tain

ing

accu

rate

eco

no

mic

valu

es t

hro

ugh

su

rvey

met

ho

ds

hav

e b

een

no

ted

by

a p

anel

of

hig

hly

reg

ard

ed e

con

om

ists

led

by

No

bel

Pri

ze l

aure

ate

Ken

net

h A

rro

w a

nd

Ro

ber

t S

olo

w c

on

ven

ed u

nd

er t

he

aus-

pic

es o

f th

e N

atio

nal

Oce

anic

an

d A

tmo

sph

eric

Ad

min

istr

a-

tio

n (

NO

AA

, 200

1). $

e m

eth

od

is w

idel

y ac

cep

ted

as

a re

al

esta

te a

pp

rais

al t

ech

niq

ue

par

ticu

larl

y in

in

stan

ces

of

con

-

tam

inat

ed s

ites

req

uir

ing

rem

edia

tio

n (

Mu

nd

y an

d M

cLea

n,

1998

). $

e te

chn

iqu

e h

as a

lso

bee

n u

sed

by

man

y go

vern

-

men

ts t

o e

valu

ate

the

cost

-ben

e'ts

of

pro

ject

s im

pac

tin

g

po

siti

vely

or

neg

ativ

ely

on

th

e en

viro

nm

ent,

fo

r ex

amp

le, i

n

Au

stra

lia

wh

ere

it w

as u

sed

to

pla

ce a

val

ue

on

th

e p

osi

tive

and

neg

ativ

e im

pac

ts o

f p

roje

cts

wit

hin

th

e K

akad

u N

atio

n-

al P

ark

(C

arso

n e

t al

., 19

94).

As

esti

mat

es o

f th

e va

lues

fo

r

goo

ds

and

ser

vice

s th

at a

re e

asil

y id

enti

'ed

an

d u

nd

erst

oo

d

by

use

rs,

the

resu

lts

fro

m t

hes

e st

ud

ies

are

no

t d

i#cu

lt t

o

anal

yze

and

des

crib

e.

$er

e ar

e, h

ow

ever

, so

me

pro

ble

ms

rega

rdin

g th

e co

nti

n-

gen

t va

luat

ion

met

ho

d a

s th

is m

eth

od

has

th

e te

nd

ency

to

pro

du

ce b

iase

d r

esu

lts

(Kla

[ a

nd

Mei

ssen

, 20

11).

Su

ch b

i-

ases

in

clu

de

tho

se o

f a

stra

tegi

c n

atu

re w

her

e re

spo

nd

ents

answ

er q

ues

tio

nn

aire

s in

ord

er t

o in

%u

ence

a p

arti

cula

r o

ut-

com

e, in

form

atio

n b

ias,

wh

ere

resp

on

den

ts a

re fo

rced

to

pu

t

a va

lue

to a

n a

ttri

bu

te f

or

wh

ich

th

ey m

igh

t h

ave

litt

le o

r n

o

exp

erie

nce

, an

d n

on

-res

po

nse

bia

s w

her

e th

e n

on

-res

po

n-

den

ts m

igh

t in

dee

d h

ave

di&

eren

t va

lues

to

th

ose

wh

o h

ave

resp

on

ded

. P

rob

lem

s en

cou

nte

red

are

th

at d

ue

to s

trat

egic

reas

on

s re

spo

nd

ents

may

mis

rep

rese

nt

thei

r W

TP.

$is

may

resu

lt i

n b

oth

ove

rsta

ted

an

d u

nd

erst

ated

an

swer

s to

th

eir

WT

P. A

lso,

res

po

nd

ents

may

fai

l to

co

nsi

der

th

eir

bu

dge

t

con

stra

ints

in

hyp

oth

etic

al s

etti

ngs

, as

des

crib

ed b

y D

ia-

mo

nd

an

d H

ausm

an (

1994

). A

co

mm

on

exa

mp

le i

s w

her

e

resp

on

den

ts a

re u

nfa

mil

iar

in p

laci

ng

a d

oll

ar v

alu

e o

n e

n-

viro

nm

enta

l go

od

s an

d s

ervi

ces.

As

such

th

ese

resp

on

den

ts

do

no

t re

ally

hav

e an

ad

equ

ate

bas

is f

or

stat

ing

thei

r tr

ue

valu

e. I

n s

om

e ca

ses

the

resp

on

den

t m

igh

t b

e ex

pre

ssin

g a

feel

ing

abo

ut

the

scen

ario

or

the

valu

atio

n e

xerc

ise

itse

lf.

Wil

lin

gnes

s to

pay

fo

r im

pro

ved

en

viro

nm

enta

l vi

sib

ilit

y

(th

rou

gh r

edu

ced

po

llu

tio

n)

cou

ld b

e in

terp

rete

d a

s h

ealt

h

Page 14: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

14

TH

E E

CO

NO

MIC

IM

PA

CT O

F G

EO

INF

OR

MA

TIO

N O

N D

ISA

ST

ER A

ND R

ISK M

AN

AG

EM

EN

T

2 risk

s th

at t

he

resp

on

den

t as

soci

ated

wit

h p

oll

ute

d a

ir a

nd

the

hea

lth

co

sts

asso

ciat

ed w

ith

th

is a

spec

t.

In m

eth

od

olo

gica

l te

rms

it i

s im

po

rtan

t al

so t

o d

isti

ngu

ish

bet

wee

n t

he

Wil

lin

gnes

s to

Pay

(W

TP

) in

ord

er t

o r

ecei

ve

an e

nvi

ron

men

tal a

sset

as

agai

nst

th

e W

illi

ngn

ess

to A

ccep

t

(WT

A)

as a

co

mp

ensa

tio

n f

or

givi

ng

up

an

en

viro

nm

enta

l

asse

t. I

t co

uld

be

that

th

e d

i&er

ent

psy

cho

logi

cal

and

per

-

son

alit

y m

ake-

up

of

resp

on

den

ts m

ay p

rod

uce

di&

eren

t re

-

sult

s d

epen

din

g o

n t

he

way

th

e q

ues

tio

ns

are

ph

rase

d a

nd

ask

ed.

$e

fou

rth

met

ho

d,

the

Co

st A

void

ance

Ap

pro

ach

, ev

alu

-

ates

th

e d

amag

es a

nd

lo

sses

th

at c

ou

ld h

ave

bee

n a

void

ed

had

an

in

form

atio

n p

rod

uct

bee

n u

sed

oth

er t

han

th

e o

ne

curr

entl

y im

ple

men

ted

. $

e av

oid

ed

dam

ages

ar

e th

en

inte

rpre

ted

as

the

ben

e'ts

of

this

pro

du

ct.

Oth

er s

imil

ar

nam

es f

or

this

ap

pro

ach

in

clu

de

the

dam

age

cost

avo

ided

,

rep

lace

men

t co

st a

nd

su

bst

itu

te c

ost

met

ho

ds.

$is

fo

urt

h

app

roac

h a

ttem

pts

to

est

imat

e th

e va

lues

of

eco

syst

em s

er-

vice

s b

ased

on

eit

her

th

e co

st o

f av

oid

ing

dam

ages

du

e to

lost

ser

vice

s, t

he

cost

of

rep

laci

ng

eco

syst

em s

ervi

ces,

or

the

cost

of

pro

vid

ing

alte

rnat

ive

serv

ices

. E

xam

ple

s o

f th

e ap

-

pli

cati

on

of

this

met

ho

d i

ncl

ud

e va

luin

g w

ater

qu

alit

y an

d

pu

ri'

cati

on

, ero

sio

n a

nd

ru

n-o

&, s

torm

mit

igat

ion

an

d '

sh

hab

itat

s.

A li

mit

atio

n o

f th

is m

eth

od

is t

hat

it is

bas

ed o

n ‘w

hat

-if’

es-

tim

atio

n a

nd

th

us

reli

es o

n e

xper

t ju

dgm

ent

of

wh

ich

loss

es

cou

ld h

ave

bee

n s

aved

rat

her

th

an a

n o

bje

ctiv

e ev

alu

atio

n

of

actu

al l

oss

-red

uct

ion

s. I

mp

lici

tly

this

rel

ies

on

kn

ow

ing

the

actu

al c

ost

of

a lo

ss a

nd

ho

w m

uch

co

uld

be

save

d. $

ere

is a

lso

th

e in

her

ent

elem

ent

of

op

po

rtu

nit

y co

sts

as t

her

e

nee

ds

to b

e a

corr

ect

mea

sure

of

the

max

imu

m a

mo

un

t o

f

mo

ney

or

oth

er g

oo

ds

and

ben

e'ts

th

at a

per

son

is w

illi

ng

to

fore

go t

o h

ave

a p

arti

cula

r go

od

an

d s

ervi

ce l

ess

the

actu

al

cost

of

the

goo

d i

tsel

f. S

uch

a m

od

el w

ill

wo

rk w

ell

in c

ases

wh

ere

the

actu

al d

amag

e av

oid

ed o

r th

e re

pla

cem

ent

exp

en-

dit

ure

hav

e al

read

y b

een

in

curr

ed a

nd

th

e m

on

etar

y va

lue

has

alr

ead

y b

een

ass

esse

d a

nd

ob

tain

ed. W

hil

e ex

pen

dit

ure

s

to r

epai

r d

amag

es o

r to

rep

lace

ser

vice

s ca

n v

alid

ly b

e m

ea-

sura

ble

, co

sts

are

no

t re

ally

an

acc

ura

te e

stim

ate

of

ben

e'ts

.

An

ad

van

tage

of

the

Co

st A

void

ance

Ap

pro

ach

is

its

suit

-

abil

ity

to c

om

par

ativ

e an

alys

is b

ecau

se (

1) t

he

loss

-sav

ing

imp

act

is s

om

eth

ing

that

is

rele

van

t to

all

geo

spat

ial

tech

-

no

logi

es a

nd

(2)

th

e in

crea

sin

gly

stan

dar

diz

ed m

eth

od

s fo

r

dam

age

and

lo

ss a

sses

smen

t m

ake

it s

uit

able

fo

r si

mil

arly

stru

ctu

red

dam

age

rep

ort

s fo

r d

i&er

ent

dis

aste

r in

cid

ents

in

di&

eren

t p

arts

of

the

wo

rld

. $

e d

ata

may

pro

vid

e a

rou

gh

ind

icat

or

of

eco

no

mic

val

ue

give

n d

ata

lim

itat

ion

s an

d t

he

sub

stit

uta

bil

ity

of

sim

ilar

an

d r

elat

ed g

oo

ds.

$e

app

roac

h-

es a

re l

ess

dat

a in

ten

sive

an

d a

re b

ette

r su

ited

to

val

uat

ion

met

ho

ds

that

est

imat

e th

e W

illi

ngn

ess

to P

ay d

iscu

ssed

pre

vio

usl

y. $

e re

sult

s o

f th

e st

ud

y w

ou

ld p

rovi

de

surr

oga

te

mea

sure

s o

f va

lue

that

are

co

nsi

sten

t w

ith

co

nce

pts

of

valu

e

amo

ng

peo

ple

s an

d h

ence

a v

alu

able

co

mp

arat

ive

too

l un

der

di&

eren

t ci

rcu

mst

ance

s.

Giv

en t

he

com

par

ativ

e ai

ms

of

this

rep

ort

, th

e C

ost

Avo

id-

ance

met

ho

d w

ill b

e fu

rth

er d

evel

op

ed a

nd

dep

loye

d i

n t

his

chap

ter.

To

do

so,

a c

ost

-avo

idan

ce a

nal

ysis

wil

l be

des

ign

ed,

imp

lem

ente

d a

nd

eva

luat

ed f

or

a sp

eci'

c ge

osp

atia

l in

for-

mat

ion

pro

du

ct (

an e

arly

war

nin

g sy

stem

) in

aid

of

a sp

e-

ci'

c n

atu

ral d

isas

ter

(%as

h %

oo

ds

in N

amib

ia).

Pre

par

edn

ess

for

dis

aste

rs c

ause

d b

y h

azar

ds

of

nat

ura

l o

ri-

gin

is a

key

fac

tor

in r

edu

cin

g th

eir

neg

ativ

e im

pac

ts (

Al'

eri

et a

l., 2

012)

. $

e im

po

rtan

ce o

f in

crea

sin

g p

rep

ared

nes

s o

f

soci

ety

is a

maj

or

con

clu

sio

n o

f th

e ex

ten

sive

pu

bli

cati

on

Nat

ura

l H

azar

ds,

Un

nat

ura

l D

isas

ters

($

e W

orl

d B

ank

/

Un

ited

Nat

ion

s, 2

010)

. $

e re

po

rt i

den

ti'

es e

arly

war

nin

g

syst

ems

as o

ne

of

thre

e k

ey i

nve

stm

ents

des

irab

le f

or

risk

red

uct

ion

(a

lon

gsid

e cr

itic

al

infr

astr

uct

ure

an

d

envi

ron

-

men

tal

bu

&er

s).

Ear

ly w

arn

ing

syst

ems

hav

e b

een

fu

rth

er-

mo

re c

on

'rm

ed a

s an

att

ract

ive

pre

ven

tio

n o

pti

on

, bec

ause

sam

ple

stu

die

s sh

ow

th

at t

he

ben

e'ts

can

sig

ni'

can

tly

ex-

ceed

th

e co

sts

of d

evel

op

men

t an

d m

ain

ten

ance

(R

oge

rs a

nd

Tsi

rku

no

v, 2

011;

Tei

sber

g an

d W

eih

er,

2009

). E

spec

iall

y fo

r

hyd

ro-m

eteo

rolo

gica

l h

azar

ds,

wh

ich

can

be

det

ecte

d w

ith

a su

#ci

ent

lead

tim

e fo

r ad

equ

ate

acti

on

, ear

ly w

arn

ing

sys-

tem

s ca

n s

ave

live

s an

d p

rop

erty

in t

he

case

of d

isas

ter,

wh

ile

pro

vid

ing

add

itio

nal

ben

e'ts

at

oth

er t

imes

by

op

tim

izin

g

eco

no

mic

pro

du

ctio

n i

n w

eath

er s

ensi

tive

sec

tors

(H

alle

-

gatt

e, 2

012)

. N

ote

ho

wev

er,

that

car

e m

ust

be

tak

en t

o n

ot

ove

rest

imat

e th

e im

pac

t o

f an

ear

ly w

arn

ing

syst

em,

as n

ot

all p

rop

erty

is

suit

able

fo

r p

rote

ctio

n a

nd

/ o

r re

mo

val.

Case s

ele

ction

$e

Nam

ibia

%o

od

ing

even

t in

200

9 h

as b

een

sel

ecte

d a

s o

ur

stu

dy

case

fo

r th

e fo

llo

win

g re

aso

ns:

Nam

ibia

’s

geo

grap

hic

al

loca

tio

n

mak

es

the

cou

ntr

y

vuln

erab

le t

o r

ecu

rren

t h

ydro

-met

eoro

logi

cal

haz

ard

s,

incl

ud

ing

%o

od

s.

Am

on

g th

e su

b-S

ahar

an A

fric

an c

ou

ntr

ies,

Nam

ibia

is a

lso

co

nsi

der

ed o

ne

of

the

mo

st v

uln

erab

le t

o f

utu

re

clim

ate

chan

ge (

PD

NA

, 200

9). P

roje

ctio

ns

sho

w g

reat

er

ano

mal

ies

in r

ain

fall

, wh

ich

in

crea

ses

chan

ces

for

hig

h

inte

nsi

ty r

ain

fall

s an

d s

ub

seq

uen

t %

oo

din

g. O

pti

miz

ing

the

(fu

ture

) u

se o

f ge

oin

form

atio

n w

ou

ld t

her

efo

re b

e

hig

hly

val

uab

le.

Mo

reo

ver,

th

ere

is a

hig

h p

ote

nti

al f

or

the

dev

elo

pm

ent

of

an e

arly

war

nin

g sy

stem

du

e to

th

e n

atu

re o

f (p

art

of)

th

e %

oo

din

g ev

ents

, as

th

e h

ead

wat

ers

of

the

mai

n

rive

rs o

rigi

nat

e fa

r u

pst

ream

, th

ereb

y cr

eati

ng

the

po

-

ten

tial

fo

r a

hig

h le

ad t

ime

in c

ase

of

adeq

uat

e w

arn

ing.

$er

e is

als

o p

ote

nti

al f

or

dev

elo

pin

g o

ther

geo

info

r-

mat

ion

ser

vice

s, e

spec

iall

y sa

tell

ite

bas

ed o

nes

, as

th

e

Page 15: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

15

TH

E E

CO

NO

MIC

IM

PA

CT O

F G

EO

INF

OR

MA

TIO

N O

N D

ISA

ST

ER A

ND R

ISK M

AN

AG

EM

EN

T

220

09 %

oo

d c

ove

red

a l

arge

are

a an

d t

he

tim

ing

and

dy-

nam

ic b

ehav

iou

r w

as v

aria

ble

am

on

g re

gio

ns

(PD

NA

,

2009

) (F

igu

re 2

.3).

$is

mak

es i

t a

suit

able

cas

e fo

r fu

-

ture

co

mp

arat

ive

rese

arch

on

geo

info

rmat

ion

pro

du

cts

oth

er t

han

ear

ly w

arn

ing

syst

ems.

Pra

ctic

al r

easo

ns

also

info

rmed

th

e ch

oic

e fo

r th

is u

se c

ase.

$er

e is

alr

ead

y a

his

tory

of

con

tact

bet

wee

n U

N-S

PI-

DE

R a

nd

th

e N

amib

ia H

ydro

log

y D

epar

tmen

t, w

hic

h

was

vit

al f

or

ob

tain

ing

con

text

in

form

atio

n a

nd

fo

r ef

-

fect

ive

dis

trib

uti

on

of

the

qu

esti

on

nai

re.

Fu

rth

erm

ore

, th

e P

ost

D

isas

ter

Nee

ds

Ass

essm

ent

(PD

NA

) fo

r th

e 20

09 %

oo

d i

ncl

ud

es a

det

aile

d d

escr

ip-

tio

n o

f d

amag

es a

nd

lo

sses

as

wel

l as

med

ium

- an

d

lon

g-te

rm r

eco

very

an

d m

itig

atio

n s

trat

egie

s. $

is i

s

vita

l fo

r ev

alu

atin

g, w

ith

th

e ai

d o

f q

ues

tio

nn

aire

s, h

ow

mu

ch o

f th

e n

egat

ive

eco

no

mic

e&

ects

co

uld

hav

e b

een

pre

ven

ted

had

an

e&

ecti

ve e

arly

war

nin

g sy

stem

bee

n

in p

lace

. Si

nce

th

e P

DN

A w

as p

rep

ared

wit

h t

he

aid

of

the

Wo

rld

Ban

k,

the

UN

an

d t

he

Eu

rop

ean

Co

mm

is-

sio

n,

its

stru

ctu

re (

par

ticu

larl

y th

e ca

tego

riza

tio

n o

f

a&ec

ted

eco

no

mic

sec

tors

) fo

llo

ws

inte

rnat

ion

al s

tan

-

dar

ds,

mak

ing

this

cas

e st

ud

y a

suit

able

sta

rtin

g p

oin

t

for

futu

re c

om

par

ativ

e re

sear

ch.

Questionnaire d

esig

n a

nd d

issem

ination

$e

qu

esti

on

nai

re c

om

pri

ses

two

par

ts (

see

An

nex

I):

a q

uan

tita

tive

par

t, a

ttem

pti

ng

to d

eter

min

e th

e d

am-

ages

an

d l

oss

es t

hat

co

uld

hav

e b

een

avo

ided

, h

ad a

n

e&ec

tive

ear

ly w

arn

ing

syst

em b

een

in

pla

ce, p

rovi

din

g

a w

arn

ing

wit

h s

u#

cien

t le

ad-t

ime

to t

ake

pro

tect

ive

acti

on

;

Fig

ure

2.3

: Are

as im

pac

ted

by

Nam

ibia

n %

oo

d 2

009

(PD

NA

,

2009

)

and

a q

ual

itat

ive

par

t, d

eali

ng

wit

h t

he

cau

ses

of

inef

-

fect

ive

resp

on

se t

o t

he

war

nin

g in

200

9, i

mp

rove

men

ts

imp

lem

ente

d s

ince

th

e d

isas

ter,

an

d d

esir

able

fu

ture

dev

elo

pm

ents

.

$e

seco

nd

par

t w

as p

rim

aril

y d

esig

ned

to

gen

erat

e h

elp

ful

sugg

esti

on

s to

th

e au

tho

riti

es i

n N

amib

ia r

egar

din

g h

ow

to

op

tim

ize

the

earl

y w

arn

ing

syst

em i

n u

se,

ther

eby

retu

rn-

ing

a fa

vou

r to

th

e re

spo

nd

ents

fo

r th

eir

par

tici

pat

ion

in t

he

surv

ey. Y

et, a

s th

is c

hap

ter

is p

rin

cip

ally

co

nce

rned

wit

h t

he

Co

st A

void

ance

met

ho

do

log

y, t

he

focu

s is

her

e o

n t

he

'rs

t

par

t o

f th

e q

ues

tio

nn

aire

.

Fig

ure

2.4

: Ref

eren

ce s

cen

ario

of

the

case

stu

dy

qu

esti

on

nai

re

Page 16: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

16

TH

E E

CO

NO

MIC

IM

PA

CT O

F G

EO

INF

OR

MA

TIO

N O

N D

ISA

ST

ER A

ND R

ISK M

AN

AG

EM

EN

T

2 Fig

ure

2.5

: Su

mm

ary

of

dam

ages

an

d lo

sses

(P

DN

A, 2

009)

As

an e

arly

war

nin

g sy

stem

su

pp

ort

ed b

y ge

osp

atia

l in

form

a-

tio

n c

an f

acil

itat

e ea

rlie

r ac

tio

ns,

it h

as t

he

po

ten

tial

to

red

uce

dam

ages

an

d lo

sses

. Vit

al in

pu

t n

eed

ed fo

r su

ch a

co

st-r

edu

c-

tio

n a

nal

ysis

are

th

e d

amag

e an

d lo

sses

'gu

res

resu

ltin

g fr

om

the

%o

od

, av

aila

ble

in

th

e P

ost

Dis

aste

r N

eed

s A

sses

smen

t

(PD

NA

, 20

09).

$e

asse

ssm

ent

is d

ivid

ed i

nto

fo

ur

di&

er-

ent

sect

ors

: in

fras

tru

ctu

re;

pro

du

ctiv

e; s

oci

al;

cro

ss-s

ecto

ral.

Bas

ed o

n a

lit

erat

ure

rev

iew

, it

was

fo

un

d t

hat

in

Nam

ibia

it

is p

oss

ible

to

fo

reca

st %

oo

din

g ev

ents

res

ult

ing

fro

m h

igh

in

-

ten

sity

rai

nfa

ll e

ven

ts o

n a

vera

ge,

app

roxi

mat

ely

10 d

ays

in

adva

nce

(D

e G

roev

e, 2

010)

. $is

is o

nly

the

case

wh

en r

ain

fall

take

s p

lace

in

th

e u

pp

er b

asin

, no

t in

th

e ca

se o

f %

ash

%o

od

s

in %

oo

d p

lain

s. B

ecau

se c

ost

-ben

e't

esti

mat

ion

s ar

e k

now

n

to h

ave

a re

lati

vely

low

acc

ura

cy l

evel

(K

la[

an

d M

eiss

en,

2011

), a

n o

rder

-of-

mag

nit

ud

e an

swer

str

uct

ure

was

use

d. $

e

par

tici

pan

ts w

ere

aske

d t

o i

nd

icat

e o

n a

sca

le r

angi

ng

fro

m

0-10

0 %

, wh

at d

amag

es a

nd

lo

sses

co

uld

hav

e b

een

avo

ided

,

per

eco

no

mic

sec

tor,

had

th

ere

bee

n a

n e

&ec

tive

war

nin

g 10

day

s p

rio

r to

th

e %

oo

d (

Fig

ure

2.4

). S

om

e as

sum

pti

on

s h

ad

to b

e m

ade,

in

clu

din

g th

e av

aila

bil

ity

of

the

mea

ns

to a

ct.

Fu

rth

erm

ore

, p

arti

cip

ants

wer

e as

ked

wh

at p

erce

nta

ge o

f

live

s co

uld

hav

e b

een

sav

ed, h

ad t

her

e b

een

an

e&

ecti

ve e

arly

war

nin

g.

Sub

seq

uen

tly,

th

e p

erce

nta

ges

ind

icat

ed b

y th

e re

spo

nd

ents

wer

e co

up

led

to

th

e d

amag

e an

d l

oss

es '

gure

s (F

igu

re 2

.5),

to o

bta

in a

mo

net

ary

ind

icat

ion

of

the

cost

an

d l

oss

red

uc-

tio

n p

ote

nti

al o

f an

e&

ecti

ve w

arn

ing

syst

em.

In t

he

end

, th

ese

'gu

res

sho

uld

be

mo

di'

ed r

egar

din

g cu

r-

ren

cy s

tan

dar

d, t

he

occ

urr

ence

tim

e o

f su

ch a

sev

ere

%o

od

ing

even

t, a

nd

th

e co

sts

invo

lved

in d

evel

op

ing

and

op

erat

ing

the

pro

po

sed

sys

tem

, in

ord

er t

o e

stim

ate

the

add

ed v

alu

e o

f ge

o-

spat

ial

info

rmat

ion

. $

is i

s h

owev

er i

s b

eyo

nd

th

e sc

op

e o

f

this

ch

apte

r an

d t

he

focu

s is

on

iden

tify

ing

the

ben

e'ts

.

$e

qu

esti

on

nai

re w

as t

este

d b

efo

reh

and

an

d t

he

par

tici

-

pan

ts w

ere

assu

red

th

at t

hei

r an

swer

s w

ou

ld b

e tr

eate

d c

on

-

'd

enti

ally

an

d t

hat

th

ey w

ou

ld r

ecei

ve a

su

mm

ary

of

'n

d-

ings

. $e

qu

esti

on

nai

re w

as s

ent t

o m

emb

ers

of t

he

scie

nti

'c

com

mu

nit

y re

late

d t

o t

he

Nam

ibia

n E

arly

Flo

od

War

nin

g

Sen

sorW

eb p

roje

ct a

nd

to

th

e H

ead

of

the

Nam

ibia

n H

y-

dro

log

y D

epar

tmen

t, G

uid

o v

an L

ange

nh

ove

. Mr.

van

Lan

-

gen

ho

ve i

n t

urn

dis

trib

ute

d t

he

qu

esti

on

nai

re w

ith

in h

is

dep

artm

ent

and

ext

ern

ally

to

mem

ber

s o

f th

e %

oo

d b

ull

etin

,

wh

ich

pro

vid

es r

egu

lar

up

dat

es o

n r

iver

leve

ls t

o lo

cal c

om

-

mu

nit

ies

(Fig

ure

s 2.

6 an

d 2

.7).

$e

resp

on

den

t ra

te w

as u

nfo

rtu

nat

ely

too

low

fo

r st

atis

tica

l

anal

ysis

. N

ever

thel

ess,

th

e 14

qu

esti

on

nai

res

that

wer

e re

-

turn

ed p

rovi

de

imp

ort

ant

insi

ghts

reg

ard

ing

the

feas

ibil

ity

of

this

Co

st A

void

ance

Ap

pro

ach

an

d t

he

step

s to

be

tak

en

for

furt

her

dev

elo

pm

ent

of

this

met

ho

d.

Questionnaire r

esults a

nd d

iscussio

n

Of

the

14 r

esp

on

den

ts, 8

co

mp

lete

d t

he

eco

no

mic

val

uat

ion

par

t. A

vera

ges

and

ave

rage

sp

ans

wer

e ca

lcu

late

d f

or

each

of

the

fou

r ec

on

om

ic s

ecto

rs (

infr

astr

uct

ure

; p

rod

uct

ive;

soci

al;

cro

ss-s

ecto

ral)

an

d f

or

live

s lo

st (

Fig

ure

2.8

). N

ote

that

th

e n

um

ber

of

resp

on

den

ts is

sm

all a

nd

th

at o

utl

iers

are

pre

sen

t in

a s

mal

l nu

mb

er o

f re

spo

nse

s.

In t

ota

l, 10

2 p

erso

ns

lost

th

eir

live

s d

ue

to t

he

%o

od

(P

DN

A,

2009

).

$e

per

cen

tage

th

at

cou

ld

hav

e b

een

sa

ved

, h

ad

an e

&ec

tive

ear

ly w

arn

ing

syst

em b

een

in

pla

ce,

was

est

i-

mat

ed t

o b

e 56

.88

%,

wit

h a

n a

vera

ge r

ange

of

33 %

. $

is

was

th

e la

rges

t ra

nge

am

on

g th

e d

i&er

ent

cate

gori

es.

$e

cro

ss-s

ecto

ral

cate

gory

, co

veri

ng

the

envi

ron

men

t, w

as e

s-

tim

ated

at

54.8

3 %

, w

ith

an

ave

rage

ran

ge o

f 16

.67

%.

$e

soci

al s

ecto

r h

as m

ost

to

gai

n f

rom

an

e&

ecti

ve e

arly

war

n-

ing

syst

em, n

amel

y 58

.44

%, w

ith

an

ave

rage

ran

ge o

f 25

%.

Page 17: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

17

TH

E E

CO

NO

MIC

IM

PA

CT O

F G

EO

INF

OR

MA

TIO

N O

N D

ISA

ST

ER A

ND R

ISK M

AN

AG

EM

EN

T

2R

egar

din

g th

e se

con

d p

rob

lem

of

par

tici

pan

ts e

xper

ien

cin

g

di#

cult

y in

an

swer

ing

the

Co

st A

void

ance

Ap

pro

ach

qu

es-

tio

ns,

rea

son

s p

rovi

ded

wer

e th

at p

arti

cip

ants

did

no

t '

nd

them

selv

es t

o b

e q

ual

i'ed

or

info

rmed

en

ou

gh t

o m

ake

'-

nan

cial

est

imat

ion

s. I

n a

dd

itio

n,

the

scen

ario

of

a te

n d

ays

adva

nce

war

nin

g is

on

ly a

rea

list

ic a

ssu

mp

tio

n i

n t

he

case

wh

en %

oo

din

g o

ccu

rs d

ue

to h

igh

in

ten

sity

rai

nfa

ll e

ven

ts

far

up

stre

am,

as w

as t

he

case

in

200

9. F

lash

%o

od

s ar

e n

ot

acco

un

ted

fo

r b

y th

is m

eth

od

olo

gy.

$e

ten

day

s ad

van

ce n

oti

ce s

cen

ario

may

be

furt

her

dis

-

cuss

ed. I

n h

ind

sigh

t, t

his

war

nin

g ti

me

cou

ld h

ave

bee

n r

e-

du

ced

. $

is w

ou

ld b

oth

hav

e lo

wer

ed t

he

skep

tici

sm o

f th

e

par

tici

pan

ts t

ow

ard

s th

e re

pre

sen

tati

ven

ess

of

the

scen

ario

as w

ell

as i

ncr

ease

th

e re

liab

ilit

y o

f th

e w

arn

ing

usi

ng

mo

re

up

to

dat

e d

ata,

an

d l

ow

erin

g th

e p

oss

ibil

ity

of

fals

e al

arm

s

wh

ich

may

lea

d t

o l

ow

er r

esp

on

se t

o f

utu

re e

arly

war

nin

gs.

In a

dd

itio

n,

ther

e is

a m

axim

um

in

th

e am

ou

nt

of

dam

age

that

can

be

pre

ven

ted

. $

is h

as b

een

sh

ow

n b

y D

ay (

1970

),

Fig

ure

2.7

: Flo

od

rel

ated

act

ivit

ies

of

resp

on

den

tsF

igu

re 2

.6: B

ack

gro

un

d o

f re

spo

nd

ents

are

said

to

be

at U

S$ 0

.60

mil

lio

n.

In t

ota

l th

e fo

ur

sect

ors

add

up

to

a s

um

of

US$

95.

54 m

illi

on

. $

e n

um

ber

of

live

s

has

no

t b

een

cal

cula

ted

in

ter

ms

of

an e

con

om

ic '

gure

.

Tw

o m

ain

pro

ble

ms

wer

e en

cou

nte

red

wh

en e

valu

atin

g th

e

qu

esti

on

nai

re r

esu

lts:

(1)

a r

elat

ivel

y lo

w r

esp

on

se r

ate

and

(2)

par

tici

pan

ts i

nd

icat

ing

they

exp

erie

nce

d d

i#cu

ltie

s an

-

swer

ing

the

Co

st A

void

ance

qu

esti

on

s. R

egar

din

g th

e lo

w

resp

on

se r

ate,

rea

son

s co

uld

be

the

lon

g d

ista

nce

s an

d t

her

e-

by

the

dig

ital

dis

trib

uti

on

of

the

qu

esti

on

nai

res

by

e-m

ail.

In r

etro

spec

t, t

he

dis

trib

uti

on

co

uld

no

t h

ave

bee

n d

on

e d

if-

fere

ntl

y. $

ere

wer

e n

o r

eso

urc

es a

vail

able

to

per

form

th

e

rese

arch

in

sit

u, w

hic

h w

ou

ld h

ave

bee

n t

he

mo

st p

refe

rab

le

op

tio

n.

Esp

ecia

lly

bec

ause

an

oth

er m

ajo

r %

oo

din

g ev

ent

occ

urr

ed i

n 2

011,

th

at e

xcee

ded

th

e im

pac

t o

f th

e %

oo

d i

n

2009

in t

erm

s o

f d

eath

s, n

um

ber

of

a&ec

ted

peo

ple

an

d e

co-

no

mic

dam

age

cost

s (E

M-D

AT

, 20

12),

th

e 20

09 %

oo

d m

ay

hav

e b

een

of

less

sig

ni'

can

ce i

n t

he

resp

on

den

ts’ m

ind

s.

$e

avo

idab

le d

amag

es a

nd

lo

sses

fo

r th

e p

rod

uct

ive

sect

or

wer

e es

tim

ated

at

41.2

5 %

, w

ith

an

ave

rage

ran

ge o

f 18

%.

$e

sect

or

infr

astr

uct

ure

was

est

imat

ed t

o h

ave

the

low

est

po

ten

tial

gai

ns,

nam

ely

34.6

9 %

, w

ith

an

ave

rage

ran

ge o

f

33 %

. Su

mm

ariz

ing,

th

e re

spo

nd

ents

ind

icat

e th

at t

he

soci

al

sect

or

wo

uld

gai

n t

he

mo

st f

rom

an

e&

ecti

ve e

arly

war

nin

g

syst

em, c

lose

ly f

oll

ow

ed b

y th

e n

um

ber

of

hu

man

liv

es l

ost

.

$e

ran

ge p

rovi

ded

by

par

tici

pan

ts w

as l

arge

st i

n t

he

cat-

ego

ry o

f th

e n

um

ber

of

live

s lo

st,

ind

icat

ing

ther

e is

mu

ch

un

cert

ain

ty a

bo

ut

the

po

ten

tial

ben

e'ts

of

an e

arly

war

nin

g.

$e

aver

age

per

cen

tage

nu

mb

ers

wer

e su

bse

qu

entl

y co

up

led

to t

he

mo

net

ary

dam

age

and

lo

sses

'gu

res

(Fig

ure

2.9

),

wh

ere

the

curr

ency

is

fro

m t

he

year

200

9. $

e la

rges

t su

m

that

co

uld

hav

e b

een

sav

ed,

acco

rdin

g th

is a

pp

roac

h i

s in

the

pro

du

ctiv

e se

cto

r (U

S$ 5

0.08

mil

lio

n),

fo

llo

wed

by

the

soci

al s

ecto

r (U

S$ 3

1.27

mil

lio

n).

Dam

ages

an

d l

oss

es t

hat

cou

ld h

ave

bee

n a

void

ed i

n t

he

infr

astr

uct

ure

sec

tor

are

es-

tim

ated

to

be

US$

13.

60 m

illi

on

. $e

cro

ss-s

ecto

ral

savi

ngs

Page 18: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

18

TH

E E

CO

NO

MIC

IM

PA

CT O

F G

EO

INF

OR

MA

TIO

N O

N D

ISA

ST

ER A

ND R

ISK M

AN

AG

EM

EN

T

2w

ho

des

crib

ed w

hat

is n

ow

kn

ow

n a

s th

e D

ay c

urv

e fo

r %

oo

d

dam

ages

. N

ote

th

at t

his

on

ly r

efer

s to

th

e ta

ngi

ble

ben

e'ts

of

the

war

nin

g sy

stem

. $e

Day

cu

rve

sugg

ests

th

at t

her

e is

a m

axim

um

po

ssib

le r

edu

ctio

n o

f lo

sses

of

35 %

, no

mat

ter

ho

w g

reat

th

e w

arn

ing

tim

e (C

arse

ll e

t al

., 20

04).

$e

tren

d o

f th

e cu

rve

tow

ard

s a

max

imu

m i

s fu

rth

erm

ore

con

'rm

ed b

y P

enn

ing-

Ro

wse

ll e

t al

. (2

003)

sh

ow

ing

the

sam

e tr

end

fo

r d

i&er

ent

inu

nd

atio

ns

dep

ths

(Fig

ure

2.1

0).

Bas

ed o

n t

hes

e st

ud

ies

it s

eem

s ad

visa

ble

to

in

clu

de

in t

he

qu

esti

on

nai

re a

max

imu

m t

o t

he

per

cen

tage

th

at c

an b

e

save

d,

in o

rder

to

eli

min

ate

ou

tlie

rs a

bo

ve t

he

per

cen

tage

that

is

actu

ally

fo

un

d t

o b

e fe

asib

le. $

is m

axim

um

am

ou

nt

sho

uld

ho

wev

er b

e d

eter

min

ed a

cco

rdin

g to

lo

cal

con

di-

tio

ns

and

th

is s

tud

y d

oes

no

t re

com

men

d a

sta

tic

valu

e o

f

this

max

imu

m p

erce

nta

ge.

By

com

par

iso

n,

a st

ud

y in

th

e U

.S.

emp

has

ises

th

at t

ime

is

of

the

esse

nce

fo

llo

win

g a

dis

aste

r. $

e H

od

gso

n e

t al

. stu

dy

(201

0; 2

013)

fo

un

d t

hat

in

th

e U

.S.

mo

re t

han

50

% o

f th

e

cou

nti

es a

nd

sta

tes

exp

ecte

d t

hat

sat

elli

te im

ager

y an

d o

ther

geo

spat

ial

info

rmat

ion

of

dam

age

to c

riti

cal

infr

astr

uct

ure

mu

st b

e o

bta

ined

wit

hin

th

ree

day

s o

f th

e ev

ent.

Fu

rth

erm

ore

, th

e C

ost

Avo

idan

ce A

pp

roac

h p

rop

ose

d o

nly

incl

ud

es t

angi

ble

dam

ages

an

d l

oss

es,

no

t th

e in

tan

gib

le

on

es s

uch

as

stre

ss,

fam

ily

des

tru

ctio

n o

r h

ealt

h e

&ec

ts o

n

surv

ivo

rs (

Car

sell

et

al.,

2004

). T

ran

slat

ing

thes

e in

tan

gib

le

e&ec

ts t

o a

n e

con

om

ic v

alu

e an

d a

dd

ing

them

to

th

e ta

n-

gib

le d

amag

e an

d l

oss

es w

ou

ld l

ikel

y fu

rth

er i

ncr

ease

th

e

valu

e o

f th

e E

WS

con

sid

ered

.

Fo

llo

win

g th

e lo

w r

esp

on

se e

nco

un

tere

d d

uri

ng

the

exec

u-

tio

n o

f th

e q

ues

tio

nn

aire

on

e m

ay a

rgu

e th

at t

he

mo

net

ary

'n

din

gs o

f th

e va

lue

of

the

EW

S b

ased

on

th

is C

ost

Avo

id-

ance

Ap

pro

ach

are

no

t sc

ien

ti'

call

y gr

ou

nd

ed.

Du

e to

th

is

low

nu

mb

er o

f re

spo

nd

ents

, th

e re

sult

s ar

e se

nsi

tive

to

ou

t-

lier

s w

hic

h c

ou

ld d

isto

rt t

he

tru

e av

erag

e va

lues

. $e

larg

er

the

nu

mb

er o

f re

spo

nse

s, t

he

mo

re s

tab

le a

nd

sig

ni'

can

t F

igu

re 2

.9: A

void

able

dam

age

and

loss

es i

n 2

009

US$

mil

lio

n

Fig

ure

2.8

: Avo

idab

le d

amag

e an

d lo

sses

per

eco

no

mic

sec

tor

(blu

e b

ars

ind

icat

e th

e av

erag

e; b

lack

lin

es in

dic

ate

the

aver

age

ran

ge).

Page 19: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

19

TH

E E

CO

NO

MIC

IM

PA

CT O

F G

EO

INF

OR

MA

TIO

N O

N D

ISA

ST

ER A

ND R

ISK M

AN

AG

EM

EN

T

2th

e an

swer

s b

eco

me.

$er

efo

re,

this

stu

dy

do

es n

ot

clai

m

to h

ave

fou

nd

a ‘'

nal

’ or

‘co

ncl

ud

ing’

mo

net

ary

'gu

re o

f th

e

valu

e o

f ge

osp

atia

l in

form

atio

n.

Inst

ead

, th

is s

tud

y ai

ms

to

pro

vid

e in

sigh

t in

to t

he

pro

po

sed

met

ho

do

log

y an

d i

nd

i-

cate

s th

e st

eps

that

nee

d t

o b

e ta

ken

to

ap

ply

th

is a

pp

roac

h

to o

ther

cas

e st

ud

ies.

An

oth

er i

mp

ort

ant

asp

ect

that

in

%u

ence

s th

e o

utc

om

e o

f

this

'n

al '

gure

is t

he

valu

e in

eco

no

mic

ter

ms

of

a li

fe s

aved

.

Est

imat

e ra

nge

s ar

e la

rge

and

th

e n

um

ber

ch

ose

n i

s li

kely

to

hav

e a

grea

t im

pac

t, o

r ev

en d

eter

min

ativ

e e&

ect,

up

on

th

e

'n

al m

on

etar

y va

lue

of t

he

geo

spat

ial p

rod

uct

eva

luat

ed. $

is

stu

dy

cho

ose

s n

ot t

o a

do

pt o

ne

par

ticu

lar

valu

e, b

ut i

llust

rate

s

how

larg

e th

e ra

nge

of e

stim

ates

is, s

how

ing

that

th

e in

clu

sio

n

of

this

‘val

ue

of

life

’ wo

uld

a&

ect

the

ou

tco

me

grea

tly.

Fin

ally

, th

e m

ajo

r at

trac

tio

n o

f th

e C

ost

Avo

idan

ce A

p-

pro

ach

ap

pli

ed h

ere

is it

s re

lati

ve e

ase

of

use

. On

ly t

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dam

-

age

and

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sses

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res

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p o

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form

ed p

arti

cip

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req

uir

ed.

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do

wn

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e, h

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, re

mai

ns

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e st

ill

esti

mat

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are

bas

ed o

n a

n e

xper

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elin

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rath

er t

han

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lati

on

of

fact

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utu

re r

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rch

on

th

is

app

roac

h s

ho

uld

th

eref

ore

aim

at

mak

ing

the

mo

net

ary

'gu

re o

n t

he

ben

e'ts

mo

re p

reci

se a

nd

bas

ed o

n e

mp

iri-

cal

evid

ence

. O

bta

inin

g st

atis

tica

l si

gni'

can

ce w

ou

ld b

e

the

'rs

t st

ep t

ow

ard

s th

at g

oal

. $

e W

illi

ngn

ess

to P

ay a

p-

pro

ach

, wh

ich

is

the

oth

er m

ain

val

uat

ion

met

ho

d f

or

Ear

ly

War

nin

g Sy

stem

s, d

eals

wit

h t

he

sam

e d

i#cu

ltie

s re

gard

-

ing

the

erro

rs i

n e

stim

atio

ns.

Nev

erth

eles

s, w

ith

th

e C

ost

Avo

idan

ce A

pp

roac

h i

t is

po

ssib

le t

o p

rovi

de

a p

erce

nta

ge,

inst

ead

of

an e

xact

mo

net

ary

'gu

re.

$er

efo

re,

the

par

tici

-

pan

ts p

ote

nti

ally

exp

erie

nce

les

s st

ress

as

they

on

ly h

ave

to

pro

vid

e an

ord

er o

f m

agn

itu

de

inst

ead

of

an e

xact

mo

net

ary

'gu

re,

wh

ich

is

even

mo

re d

i#cu

lt t

o a

sses

s. F

urt

her

mo

re,

this

Co

st A

void

ance

Ap

pro

ach

o&

ers

a gr

eat

op

po

rtu

nit

y fo

r

rela

tive

co

mp

aris

on

bet

wee

n t

he

ben

e'ts

of

seve

ral d

i&er

ent

geo

info

rmat

ion

pro

du

cts.

Wh

en t

her

e is

a c

erta

in a

mo

un

t

of

mo

ney

ava

ilab

le a

nd

a d

ecis

ion

mak

er w

ants

to

in

vest

in

the

geo

info

rmat

ion

wit

h h

igh

est

ben

e'ts

for

DR

M, t

hen

th

is

Fig

ure

2.1

0: I

mp

act

of

%o

od

war

nin

g le

ad t

ime

on

%o

od

dam

age

(Pen

nin

g-R

osw

ell e

t al

, 200

3)

Co

st A

void

ance

Ap

pro

ach

can

be

app

lied

to

co

mp

are

the

ben

e'ts

of

di&

eren

t ge

oin

form

atio

n p

rod

uct

s fo

r th

e sa

me

case

stu

dy.

$e

geo

info

rmat

ion

pro

du

ct t

hat

has

th

e h

igh

est

ben

e'ts

can

th

en b

e p

rio

riti

zed

. In

th

is c

ase,

th

e b

ene'

ts o

f

a ce

rtai

n g

eoin

form

atio

n p

rod

uct

hav

e a

rela

tive

mea

nin

g

inst

ead

of

rep

rese

nti

ng

the

abso

lute

'n

al e

con

om

ic '

gure

on

th

e b

ene'

ts.

Page 20: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

20

STA

KE

HO

LD

ER R

AN

KIN

G O

F G

EO

INF

OR

MA

TIO

N P

RO

DU

CT

S

3 tem

s i

n D

isaste

r an

d R

isk M

an

ag

em

en

t?

A

glo

bal

sta

keh

old

er

assessm

en

t

Rob

ert

Bac

khau

s, N

atal

ie E

pler

an

d A

na

Mar

tin

ez M

olin

a

Ass

essm

ent

by

exp

ert

stak

eho

lder

s is

an

in

dis

pen

sab

le a

p-

pro

ach

wh

en it

co

mes

to

val

uat

ing

the

ben

e'ts

of

geo

spat

ial

info

rmat

ion

, ta

kin

g in

to a

cco

un

t th

e fu

ll r

ange

of

pro

du

cts

and

ser

vice

s ap

pli

cab

le t

o a

ll t

he

di&

eren

t ty

pes

of

haz

ard

,

and

all

ph

ases

of

dis

aste

r m

anag

emen

t, i

ncl

ud

ing

pre

ven

-

tio

n a

nd

ris

k r

edu

ctio

n.

Giv

en t

his

wid

esp

read

ap

pli

cati

on

po

ten

tial

, an

d t

he

lik

ely

wo

rklo

ad o

f an

y ex

per

ts in

th

is '

eld

,

an a

pp

roac

h t

o c

oll

ecti

ng

exp

ert

kn

ow

led

ge f

rom

th

e gl

ob

al

com

mu

nit

y h

as t

o b

e d

esig

ned

in

a p

ragm

atic

way

in

ord

er

to k

eep

th

e p

arti

cip

ants

’ e&

ort

wit

hin

rea

son

able

lim

its.

$u

s, in

a '

rst

step

a w

eb-b

ased

ran

kin

g p

oll

was

car

ried

ou

t

on

th

e U

N-S

PID

ER

Kn

ow

led

ge P

ort

al i

n o

rder

to

id

enti

fy

a to

p-t

en s

ho

rtli

st o

f ge

oin

form

atio

n p

rod

uct

s an

d s

yste

ms

for

a m

ore

di&

eren

tiat

ed a

pp

rais

al t

o f

oll

ow

(se

e C

hap

ter

4).

All

sta

keh

old

ers,

i.e

. en

d-u

sers

, pro

vid

ers

or

valu

e ad

der

s o

f

geo

info

rmat

ion

, w

ere

give

n t

he

op

po

rtu

nit

y to

id

enti

fy u

p

to 1

0 ge

od

ata

pro

du

cts

or

syst

ems

on

a l

on

glis

t co

nta

inin

g

51 i

tem

s, s

uch

as

haz

ard

-sp

eci'

c ri

sk m

aps,

vu

lner

abil

ity

map

s, d

amag

e as

sess

men

t m

aps,

an

d m

on

ito

rin

g sy

stem

s,

wh

ich

th

ey r

egar

ded

as

mo

st i

mp

ort

ant

to s

up

po

rt D

isas

ter

and

Ris

k M

anag

emen

t (T

able

3.1

). B

eyo

nd

th

e sh

eer

pro

-

du

ct n

ames

in

th

e li

st,

no

fu

rth

er t

ech

nic

al s

pec

i'ca

tio

ns

wer

e gi

ven

at

this

sta

ge.

Haz

ard

Typ

eP

rod

uct

s/S

yste

ms

Vo

lcan

oV

olc

anic

Act

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y M

on

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ic T

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y

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mal

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nit

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ur

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e D

etec

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n

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etat

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Dam

age

Ass

essm

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Sev

ere

Sto

rmD

amag

e P

ro'

le

Det

ecti

on

an

d F

ore

cast

Fo

rest

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

Infr

astr

uct

ure

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

Rec

ove

ry P

rogr

ess

Map

Po

llu

tio

nD

ust

Sto

rm M

on

ito

rin

g

Oil

Sp

ill D

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tio

n

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ill R

isk

Map

Op

en W

ater

Po

llu

tio

n M

ap

Nu

clea

r R

adia

tio

n M

ap

Mas

s M

ove

men

tL

and

slid

e H

azar

d A

sses

smen

t

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dsl

ide

Mo

nit

ori

ng

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age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

Inse

cts

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cust

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itat

Map

Fo

rest

an

d C

rop

Ch

ange

Mo

nit

ori

ng

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per

atu

reE

xtre

me

Hea

t R

isk

Map

,

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ld W

ave

Map

Ep

idem

icIn

fect

iou

s D

isea

ses

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k M

ap

Infe

ctio

us

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ease

s Sp

read

Map

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idem

ic T

rack

ing

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em

Flo

od

Inu

nd

atio

n M

ap

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

Ris

k M

ap

Flo

od

Ris

k M

on

ito

rin

g Sy

stem

Rec

ove

ry P

roce

ss M

ap

Dro

ugh

tD

rou

ght

Ind

ex M

ap

Dro

ugh

t In

dex

M

ap

for

So

il

Mo

istu

re

Mo

nit

ori

ng

Dro

ugh

t In

dex

Map

fo

r V

eget

atio

n

Mo

nit

ori

ng

Ris

k M

ap

Vu

lner

abil

ity

Map

Ear

thq

uak

e3D

Dam

age

Vis

ual

isat

ion

an

d A

nim

atio

n

Urb

an C

lass

i'ca

tio

n f

or

Ris

k A

nal

ysis

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

Rec

on

stru

ctio

n M

on

ito

rin

g

Tsu

nam

iD

amag

e A

sses

smen

t M

ap

Ris

k M

ap

Lan

du

se C

han

ge

Vu

lner

abil

ity

Map

Inu

nd

atio

n M

ap

Haz

ard

Map

Rec

on

stru

ctio

n M

on

ito

rin

g

Ear

ly W

arn

ing

Syst

em

Fir

eR

isk

Map

Bu

rned

Are

a D

etec

tio

n

Det

ecti

on

an

d M

on

ito

rin

g

Fo

rest

Ch

ange

Mo

nit

ori

ng

Tab

le 3

.1: L

on

glis

t o

f ap

pli

cab

le g

eoin

form

atio

n p

rod

uct

s an

d s

yste

ms

Haz

ard

Typ

eP

rod

uct

s/S

yste

ms

Page 21: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

21

STA

KE

HO

LD

ER R

AN

KIN

G O

F G

EO

INF

OR

MA

TIO

N P

RO

DU

CT

S

3

Fig

ure

3.1

: Geo

grap

hic

dis

trib

uti

on

of

po

ll r

esp

on

der

s

Page 22: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

22

STA

KE

HO

LD

ER R

AN

KIN

G O

F G

EO

INF

OR

MA

TIO

N P

RO

DU

CT

S

3 $e

lon

glis

t it

ems

wer

e n

ot

de'

ned

by

com

ple

tin

g a

gen

eric

sch

eme

of

haz

ard

typ

es a

nd

dis

aste

r m

anag

emen

t cy

cle

ph

a-

ses,

bu

t w

ere

sele

cted

by

the

VA

LID

ed

ito

rs g

rou

p, b

ased

on

a re

view

of

rece

nt

lite

ratu

re, i

ncl

ud

ing

the

con

ten

t co

llec

ted

in A

ltan

et

al. (

2010

) an

d in

th

e Sp

ace

Ap

pli

cati

on

Mat

rix

on

the

UN

-SP

IDE

R K

no

wle

dge

Po

rtal

(h

ttp

://w

ww

.un

-sp

ider

.

org

/sp

ace-

app

lica

tio

n-m

atri

x).

$e

po

ll w

as o

pen

ed f

or

1 m

on

th d

uri

ng

the

ann

ual

Gi4

DM

– G

eo-i

nfo

rmat

ion

fo

r D

isas

ter

Man

agem

ent

– c

on

fere

nce

in A

nta

lya,

Tu

rkey

, an

d a

nn

ou

nce

d a

t a

spec

ial s

ide

even

t o

n

4 M

ay 2

011.

In

ad

dit

ion

, th

e ca

ll f

or

par

tici

pat

ion

was

als

o

dis

sem

inat

ed v

ia E

-mai

l d

istr

ibu

tio

n b

y se

vera

l in

tern

atio

-

nal

org

aniz

atio

ns,

su

ch a

s th

e U

nit

ed N

atio

ns

Geo

grap

hi-

cal I

nfo

rmat

ion

Wo

rkin

g G

rou

p (

UN

GIW

G),

UN

-SP

IDE

R,

and

th

e O

pen

Geo

spat

ial C

on

sort

ium

(O

GC

).

Po

ll re

sult

s

222

par

tici

pan

ts r

esp

on

ded

to

th

e ca

ll i

n f

ull

det

ail,

213

of

wh

ich

wer

e at

trib

uta

ble

to

co

un

trie

s o

r te

rrit

ori

es,

the

re-

mai

nin

g 9

to r

egio

nal

or

glo

bal

org

aniz

atio

ns.

Fig

ure

3.1

sho

ws

the

geo

grap

hic

dis

trib

uti

on

of

resp

on

der

s, r

esp

ec-

tive

ly.

Rep

rese

nta

tio

n o

f th

e d

i&er

ent

role

s in

th

e '

eld

of

geo

spat

i-

al i

nfo

rmat

ion

was

fai

rly

bal

ance

d,

hea

ded

by

the

gro

up

of

end

-use

rs (

39 %

), f

oll

ow

ed b

y va

lue

add

ers

(35

%)

and

dat

a

pro

vid

ers

(26

%).

In t

erm

s o

f h

azar

d t

ypes

ad

dre

ssed

, th

e ev

alu

ato

rs’ p

rofe

ssi-

on

al r

ole

had

no

maj

or

e&ec

t o

n t

he

ou

tco

me

(Fig

ure

3.2

).

Fig

ure

3.2

: Rel

ativ

e d

istr

ibu

tio

n o

f p

oll

res

ult

s b

y p

arti

cip

ants

’ occ

up

atio

n a

nd

ha-

zard

typ

e ad

dre

ssed

Fig

ure

3.3

: To

tal p

oll

res

ult

s in

co

un

ts p

er t

ype

of

haz

ard

In t

ota

l, o

n t

he

leve

l o

f h

azar

d t

ypes

, F

loo

d s

core

d h

igh

est

(17

%),

fo

llo

wed

by

Tsu

nam

i (1

3 %

), D

rou

ght

(12

%),

Fir

e

(11

%),

an

d E

arth

qu

ake

(11.

5 %

), w

ith

th

e o

ther

dis

aste

r

typ

es p

oll

ing

bel

ow

10

% (

Fig

ure

3.3

). $

is c

lear

ly i

nd

ica-

tes

that

th

e m

ajo

r co

nce

rn o

f th

e st

akeh

old

er c

om

mu

nit

y

is a

bo

ut

hyd

rom

eteo

rolo

gica

l h

azar

ds

(in

clu

din

g F

ire)

an

d

Ear

thq

uak

e (i

ncl

ud

ing

Tsu

nam

i).

Sca

lin

g d

ow

n f

rom

haz

ard

typ

es t

o s

pec

i'c

haz

ard

-rel

ated

geo

info

rmat

ion

ite

ms

give

s a

mo

re d

i&er

enti

ated

pic

ture

(Fig

ure

3.4

), r

esu

ltin

g in

Mas

s M

ove

men

t h

azar

d (

Lan

d-

slid

e) a

lso

sco

rin

g am

on

g th

e T

op

-10,

an

d T

sun

ami

sco

-

rin

g lo

wer

. $

is d

i&er

enti

atio

n i

s cl

earl

y d

ue

to t

he

focu

s

or

spre

ad o

f st

akeh

old

ers’

co

nce

rn w

ith

reg

ard

to

di&

eren

t

spec

i'c

pro

du

cts

or

syst

ems

add

ress

ing

the

sam

e h

azar

d

typ

e, r

esp

ecti

vely

. F

rom

th

e p

oll

ing,

a r

efer

ence

set

of

geo

-

Page 23: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

23

STA

KE

HO

LD

ER R

AN

KIN

G O

F G

EO

INF

OR

MA

TIO

N P

RO

DU

CT

S

3in

form

atio

n p

rod

uct

s an

d s

yste

ms

was

id

enti

'ed

fo

r a

mo

re

det

aile

d s

urv

ey (

Tab

le 3

.2).

$is

tab

le h

igh

ligh

ts t

he

glo

bal

com

mu

nit

y’s

con

cern

ab

ou

t %

oo

d,

eart

hq

uak

e,

dro

ugh

t,

're

, an

d l

and

slid

e h

azar

ds,

as

wel

l as

th

e im

po

rtan

ce o

f ri

sk

anal

ysis

an

d m

on

ito

rin

g.

Dis

aste

r T

ype

Pro

du

ct/S

yste

mC

ou

nts

Flo

od

Flo

od

Ris

k M

on

ito

rin

g Sy

stem

Flo

od

Ris

k M

ap

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

Inu

nd

atio

n M

ap

97 95 82 67

Ear

thq

uak

eU

rban

Cla

ssi'

cati

on

fo

r R

isk

An

alys

is

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

85 83

Dro

ugh

tV

uln

erab

ilit

y M

ap76

Fir

eR

isk

Map

Det

ecti

on

an

d M

on

ito

rin

g

74 67

Lan

dsl

ide

Lan

dsl

ide

Haz

ard

Ass

essm

ent

68

Fig

ure

3.4

: To

tal p

oll

res

ult

s in

co

un

ts p

er g

eoin

form

atio

n it

emT

able

3.2

: To

p 1

0 re

fere

nce

set

of

geo

info

rmat

ion

item

s

Page 24: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

24

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 in d

isaste

r an

d r

isk m

an

ag

em

en

t?

Rob

ert

Bac

khau

s, J

ula

Hei

de

and

An

ne

Kn

auer

Fo

llo

win

g th

e d

e'n

itio

n o

f a

refe

ren

ce s

et o

f ge

oin

form

atio

n

item

s (s

ee C

hap

ter

3, T

able

3.2

), t

hes

e it

ems

wer

e to

be

ap-

pra

ised

as

to t

hei

r li

kel

y b

ene'

cial

imp

act

on

sp

eci'

c o

per

a-

tio

nal

as

wel

l as

str

ateg

ic i

ssu

es i

n D

isas

ter

and

Ris

k M

an-

agem

ent,

co

mb

ined

wit

h a

n a

sses

smen

t o

f th

e cr

itic

alit

y o

f

thei

r te

chn

ical

qu

alit

y fo

r en

suri

ng

the

resp

ecti

ve b

ene'

ts.

In o

rder

to

ap

pro

xim

ate

the

logi

c o

f a

clas

sica

l Co

st-B

ene'

t-

An

alys

is a

pp

roac

h a

s fa

r as

po

ssib

le, c

ost

asp

ects

sh

ou

ld a

lso

be

add

ress

ed (

see

Ch

apte

r 4.

6). $

is a

pp

roac

h, b

ased

on

an

app

rais

al o

f re

fere

nce

in

form

atio

n p

rod

uct

s th

rou

gh e

xper

t

stak

eho

lder

s, h

as b

een

dem

on

stra

ted

bef

ore

in

th

e fr

ame-

wo

rk o

f a

nat

ion

al s

tud

y o

n b

ehal

f o

f th

e G

erm

an F

eder

al

Min

istr

y fo

r E

nvi

ron

men

t an

d N

ucl

ear

Safe

ty (

Bac

kh

aus

and

Beu

le, 2

005)

.

As

a '

rst

step

, th

e re

fere

nce

ite

ms

had

to

be

char

acte

rize

d

in m

ore

tec

hn

ical

det

ail.

$e

resu

ltin

g te

chn

ical

fea

ture

pro

-

'le

s sh

ou

ld b

e d

istr

ibu

ted

to

a g

lob

al g

rou

p o

f p

ote

nti

al o

r

actu

al u

sers

(p

ract

itio

ner

s as

wel

l as

pla

nn

ers

and

dec

isio

n-

mak

ers,

a#

liat

ed t

o p

ub

lic

dis

aste

r m

anag

emen

t b

od

ies,

in

-

tern

atio

nal

org

aniz

atio

ns

and

NG

Os)

, to

geth

er w

ith

a t

em-

pla

te f

or

pro

du

ct a

pp

rais

al.

$is

tem

pla

te s

ho

uld

sp

ecif

y a

list

of

crit

eria

rel

ated

to

var

iou

s as

pec

ts o

f b

ene'

t. B

ased

on

a n

orm

aliz

ed r

atin

g sc

hed

ule

, th

e ex

per

ts w

ere

to e

valu

ate

the

refe

ren

ce it

ems

acco

rdin

g to

th

e b

ene'

cial

imp

act

wh

ich

they

wo

uld

att

rib

ute

to

th

eir

app

lica

tio

n. L

ikew

ise,

th

e te

ch-

nic

al f

eatu

res

of

each

ite

m w

ere

to b

e as

sess

ed a

s to

th

eir

crit

ical

ity

for

the

ben

e't

eval

uat

ion

.

A v

ery

det

aile

d a

nd

di&

eren

tiat

ed t

ech

nic

al d

escr

ipti

on

of

each

ite

m,

tak

ing

into

acc

ou

nt

the

vari

ety

of

mo

di'

cati

on

s

eith

er i

mp

lem

ente

d a

lrea

dy

in a

n o

per

atio

nal

en

viro

nm

ent,

or

advo

cate

d b

y re

sear

ch p

roje

cts

and

exe

mp

lary

dem

on

-

stra

tio

ns

in t

he

cou

rse

of

case

stu

die

s, w

ou

ld h

ave

resu

lted

,

toge

ther

wit

h t

he

cata

logu

e o

f ev

alu

atio

n c

rite

ria,

in

an

im

-

pra

ctic

al a

mo

un

t o

f e&

ort

exp

ecte

d f

rom

an

y re

spo

nd

er t

o

the

app

rais

al c

all.

$er

efo

re,

a m

ore

pra

gmat

ic a

pp

roac

h

was

fo

llo

wed

.

Fo

r ea

ch r

efer

ence

ite

m,

the

edit

ors

gro

up

jo

intl

y cr

eate

d a

Tec

hn

ical

Pro

'le

, co

mp

risi

ng

com

pac

t in

form

atio

n o

n t

he

maj

or

use

r-re

leva

nt

feat

ure

s an

d m

eta-

dat

a, v

iz.:

To

pic

ad

dre

ssed

(o

bje

ctiv

e o

f th

e in

form

atio

n p

rod

uct

)

$em

atic

co

nte

nt

(ava

ilab

le t

hem

atic

in

form

atio

n a

nd

un

der

lyin

g d

ata

laye

rs)

Acc

ess

(e.g

. via

In

tern

et)

Sca

le (

wh

ere

app

lica

ble

)

Acc

ura

cy (

in t

erm

s o

f ca

rto

grap

hic

rep

rese

nta

tio

n o

r

mo

del

val

idit

y)

Are

al c

ove

rage

(lo

cal,

regi

on

al o

r gl

ob

al)

Spat

ial r

eso

luti

on

Tim

elin

ess

(po

st-d

isas

ter

del

iver

y ti

me

for

rap

id m

ap-

pin

g p

rod

uct

s)

Up

dat

e fr

equ

ency

(fo

r m

on

ito

rin

g in

form

atio

n)

Dat

a fo

rmat

.

$e

Tec

hn

ical

Pro

'le

s w

ere

com

ple

ted

wit

h r

efer

ence

to

a

revi

ew o

f th

e re

spec

tive

lit

erat

ure

. $

e in

ten

tio

n w

as n

ot

to

dep

ict

any

spec

i'c

op

erat

ion

al p

rod

uct

or

syst

em, b

ut

to d

e-

scri

be,

in c

on

den

sed

form

, th

e st

ate

of t

he

art,

sh

ow

ing

wh

at

is f

easi

ble

giv

en t

he

pre

sen

t st

ate

of

scie

nce

an

d t

ech

no

log

y,

no

twit

hst

and

ing

if i

t is

in

op

erat

ion

al u

se o

r n

ot.

Dra

> v

er-

sio

ns

wer

e d

istr

ibu

ted

to

th

e JB

GIS

mem

ber

org

aniz

atio

ns

for

revi

ew a

nd

sci

enti

'c

end

ors

emen

t, r

esu

ltin

g in

ju

st m

i-

no

r ch

ange

s an

d e

dit

s. F

or

the

'n

al T

ech

nic

al P

ro'

les,

as

pre

sen

ted

to

th

e su

rvey

par

tici

pan

ts, a

nd

th

e re

fere

nce

d l

it-

erat

ure

, see

Ch

apte

rs 4

.1 t

o 4

.5, r

esp

ecti

vely

.

$e

invi

tati

on

to

par

tici

pat

e w

as d

isse

min

ated

via

th

e U

N-

SPID

ER

Kn

ow

led

ge P

ort

al a

nd

th

e U

N-S

PID

ER

E-M

ail

dis

trib

uti

on

lis

t co

nta

inin

g ab

ou

t 18

,000

ad

dre

ssee

s. I

n a

d-

dit

ion

, th

e U

N-S

PID

ER

Nat

ion

al F

oca

l P

oin

ts (

htt

p:/

/ww

w.

un

-sp

ider

.org

/net

wo

rk/n

atio

nal

-fo

cal-

po

ints

) w

ere

req

ues

t-

ed b

y a

per

son

al le

tter

fro

m t

he

dir

ecto

r o

f O

OSA

to

fu

rth

er

dis

sem

inat

e th

e ca

ll w

ith

in t

hei

r co

un

trie

s.

$e

call

was

op

en f

rom

11

Mar

ch u

nti

l 12

Ap

ril

2013

, p

ro-

vid

ing

end

-use

rs o

f ge

osp

atia

l in

form

atio

n i

n t

he

'el

d o

f

Dis

aste

r an

d R

isk

Man

agem

ent,

th

e o

pp

ort

un

ity

to e

xpre

ss

thei

r vi

ews

and

nee

ds

on

lin

e b

y w

ay o

f a

stan

dar

diz

ed a

p-

pra

isal

fo

rm o

n a

ded

icat

ed s

ecti

on

on

th

e U

N-S

PID

ER

Kn

ow

led

ge P

ort

al.

All

sec

tio

n c

on

ten

t w

as p

rese

nte

d i

n

En

glis

h,

Fre

nch

, an

d S

pan

ish

. P

arti

cip

ants

wer

e re

qu

este

d

to i

den

tify

th

emse

lves

as

end

-use

r o

r n

on

no

n-e

nd

-use

r.

$e

app

rais

al c

rite

ria

give

n i

n t

he

app

rais

al f

orm

had

bee

n

iter

ated

bef

ore

wit

h a

n i

nte

rnat

ion

al g

rou

p o

f ex

per

ts a

t

the

Gi4

DM

– G

eo-i

nfo

rmat

ion

fo

r D

isas

ter

Man

agem

ent

con

fere

nce

in A

nta

lya,

Tu

rkey

, on

4 M

ay 2

011.

$es

e cr

iter

ia

are

sch

emat

ical

ly o

utl

ined

in

Tab

le 4

.1.

In c

om

par

iso

n t

o t

he

fore

goin

g lo

ngl

ist

po

ll (

see

Ch

apte

r

3),

the

resp

on

se w

as m

ark

edly

lo

wer

th

is t

ime,

wh

ich

was

to b

e ex

pec

ted

tak

ing

into

acc

ou

nt

the

hig

her

e&

ort

nee

ded

for

com

ple

tin

g th

e fa

r m

ore

ela

bo

rate

res

po

nse

fo

rm. I

n t

o-

tal,

ther

e w

ere

70 r

esp

on

der

s,

51 o

f w

hic

h h

ad i

den

ti'

ed

them

selv

es a

s en

d-u

sers

, an

d 1

9 as

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs (

e.g.

fro

m

Page 25: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

25

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4T

ech

nic

al p

ro"

les

of

10

ref

eren

ce g

eoin

form

atio

n i

tem

s to

be

eval

uat

ed w

ith

res

pec

t to

:

Op

era

tion

al

issu

esSt

rate

gic

issu

esC

riti

cali

ty o

f fe

atu

res

Hu

man

itar

ian

aid

Hea

lth

car

e

Cri

tica

l in

fras

tru

c-

ture

Sec

uri

ty

E#

cien

cy o

f p

lan

s an

d p

oli

cies

Pu

bli

c ac

cep

tan

ce o

f p

lan

s an

d p

oli

cies

Sup

po

rt o

f su

per

regi

on

al c

on

sist

ency

an

d c

oo

per

atio

n

Red

uci

ng

loss

es i

n p

ub

lic

eco

no

my

Sup

po

rt o

f p

reve

nti

ve s

trat

egie

s

$em

atic

co

nte

nt

Acc

ess

Sca

le

Acc

ura

cy

Are

al c

ove

rage

Spat

ial r

eso

luti

on

Tim

elin

ess

Up

dat

e fr

equ

ency

Dat

a fo

rmat

Ap

pra

isal

key

: hig

h -

med

ium

- lo

w

Tab

le 4

.1: S

chem

atic

co

nte

nt

ou

tlin

e o

f th

e ap

pra

isal

fo

rm

Fig

ure

4.1

: Geo

grap

hic

dis

trib

uti

on

of

surv

ey p

arti

cip

ants

(en

d-u

sers

/no

n-e

nd

-use

rs)

Page 26: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

26

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 rese

arch

org

anis

atio

ns)

. H

ow

ever

, th

ere

was

a m

ore

or

less

sim

ilar

glo

bal

sp

read

of

resp

on

ses

(Fig

ure

4.1

).

No

t al

l 10

ref

eren

ce i

tem

s w

ere

eval

uat

ed b

y al

l re

spo

nd

ers.

$er

e w

as s

om

e d

i&er

ence

in

th

is r

egar

d b

etw

een

en

d-u

sers

and

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs (

Fig

ure

s 4.

2 an

d 4

.3),

wh

ich

mig

ht

be

exp

lain

ed b

y th

e en

d-u

sers

’ m

ore

pro

no

un

ced

en

gage

men

t

in s

pec

i'c

regi

on

al h

azar

d s

itu

atio

ns.

Bo

th g

rou

ps

sho

wed

a

rela

tive

ly h

igh

in

tere

st i

n a

ll f

ou

r %

oo

d-r

elat

ed it

ems.

In t

he

foll

ow

ing,

su

rvey

res

ult

s o

n o

per

atio

nal

an

d s

trat

e-

gic

ben

e'ts

of

the

10 r

efer

ence

geo

info

rmat

ion

ite

ms

are

pre

sen

ted

wit

h r

esp

ect

to t

he

seve

ral

eval

uat

ion

cri

teri

a as

list

ed i

n T

able

4.1

, se

par

atel

y fo

r en

d-u

sers

an

d n

on

-en

d-

use

rs.

$e

resu

lts

are

also

pre

sen

ted

an

d f

urt

her

dis

cuss

ed

wit

h r

efer

ence

to

eac

h s

ingl

e ge

oin

form

atio

n i

tem

in

Ch

ap-

ters

4.1

to

4.5

, re

spec

tive

ly,

toge

ther

wit

h t

he

resu

lts

on

th

e

crit

ical

ity

of

tech

nic

al f

eatu

res.

Op

erat

ion

al b

ene"

ts w

ou

ld t

ake

e&ec

t in

th

e im

med

iate

con

text

of

emer

gen

cy r

esp

on

se, b

ut

also

in s

up

po

rt o

f d

isas

-

ter

pre

par

edn

ess

foll

ow

ing

an e

arly

war

nin

g o

r in

th

e co

urs

e

of

a sl

ow

-on

set

dis

aste

r.

Hu

man

itar

ian

ai

d,

e.g.

lo

gist

ical

as

sist

ance

in

d

eplo

yin

g

sup

ply

go

od

s, o

r as

sist

ing

refu

gees

, is

a p

aram

ou

nt

req

uir

e-

men

t in

em

erge

ncy

res

po

nse

. H

ere,

th

e b

ene'

t o

f al

l it

ems

was

ap

pra

ised

as

hig

h b

y >

50 %

of

the

end

-use

rs,

wit

h e

m-

ph

asis

on

Ear

thq

uak

e D

amag

e A

sses

smen

t (9

3 %

). E

ven

Fir

e R

isk

Map

pin

g as

a m

ore

pre

ven

tio

n-r

elat

ed it

em s

core

d

52 %

(F

igu

re 4

.4).

All

item

s sc

ore

d lo

wer

in t

he

app

rais

al b

y

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs (

Fig

ure

4.5

).

Hea

lth

car

e, e

.g.

emer

gen

cy m

edic

al a

ssis

tan

ce o

r d

isas

ter

pre

par

edn

ess

in h

osp

ital

s o

rgan

izat

ion

, is

a h

igh

ly c

ruci

al

and

tim

e-cr

itic

al is

sue

in h

um

anit

aria

n s

up

po

rt.

In t

he

end

-

use

rs’

app

rais

al,

mo

st i

tem

s w

ere

eval

uat

ed a

s h

igh

ly b

en-

Fig

ure

4.2

: Nu

mb

er o

f re

fere

nce

item

s ev

alu

ated

by

end

-use

rs (

n =

51)

Fig

ure

4.3

: Nu

mb

er o

f re

fere

nce

item

s ev

alu

ated

by

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs (

n =

19)

Page 27: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

27

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4

Fig

ure

4.5

: Ben

e't

for

hu

man

itar

ian

aid

(n

on

-en

d-u

sers

)

Fig

ure

4.4

: Ben

e't

for

hu

man

itar

ian

aid

(en

d-u

sers

)

Fig

ure

4.6

: Ben

e't

for

hea

lth

car

e (e

nd

-use

rs)

Page 28: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

28

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 e'ci

al b

y >

50 %

, ex

cep

t fo

r L

and

slid

e H

azar

d A

sses

smen

t,

Fir

e R

isk

Map

pin

g, F

loo

d R

isk

Mo

nit

ori

ng

and

Flo

od

Ris

k

Map

pin

g. E

mp

has

is w

as g

iven

to

Ear

thq

uak

e D

amag

e A

s-

sess

men

t (7

5 %

) an

d F

ire

Det

ecti

on

an

d M

on

ito

rin

g (>

75

%)

(Fig

ure

4.6

). A

pp

aren

tly,

em

ph

asis

is

give

n t

o t

he

nee

ds

of

imm

edia

te m

edic

al a

id i

n e

mer

gen

cy s

itu

atio

ns,

res

ult

-

ing

in d

isti

nct

ly h

igh

er b

ene'

t sc

ore

s o

f d

isas

ter

det

ecti

on

and

dam

age

asse

ssm

ent

vers

us

risk

an

d h

azar

d m

app

ing.

All

item

s sc

ore

d l

ow

er i

n t

he

app

rais

al b

y n

on

-en

d-u

sers

(F

ig-

ure

4.7

).

Cri

tica

l in

fra

stru

ctu

re

enco

mp

asse

s tr

ansp

ort

atio

n,

en-

erg

y su

pp

ly,

com

mu

nic

atio

n l

ink

s an

d f

oo

d p

rod

uct

ion

.

Mo

re t

han

70

% o

f th

e en

d-u

sers

eva

luat

ed a

ll i

tem

s ex

cep

t

Dro

ugh

t V

uln

erab

ilit

y M

app

ing

as h

igh

ly b

ene'

cial

(F

ig-

ure

4.8

). A

lth

ou

gh d

rou

ght

vuln

erab

ilit

y is

a c

riti

cal

issu

e

rega

rdin

g fo

od

pro

du

ctio

n,

app

aren

tly

the

maj

or

con

cern

was

ab

ou

t te

chn

ical

in

fras

tru

ctu

re w

hic

h i

s n

ot

dir

ectl

y

a&ec

ted

by

dro

ugh

t. S

core

s >

90 %

wer

e re

ach

ed f

or

Ear

th-

qu

ake

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

pin

g, U

rban

Cla

ssi'

cati

on

for

Ear

thq

uak

e R

isk

An

alys

is a

nd

Flo

od

Ris

k M

app

ing.

$e

app

rais

al b

y n

on

-en

d-u

sers

fo

llo

wed

a s

imil

ar p

atte

rn, w

ith

mo

st h

igh

ben

e't

eval

uat

ion

s b

ein

g lo

wer

, exc

ept

Lan

dsl

ide

Haz

ard

A

sses

smen

t,

Fir

e R

isk

M

app

ing

and

F

loo

d

Ris

k

Map

pin

g (F

igu

re 4

.9).

Secu

rity

mea

ns

e.g.

co

ntr

ol

ove

r vu

lner

able

str

uct

ure

s in

emer

gen

cy s

itu

atio

ns

as w

ell

as p

rep

ared

nes

s o

f th

e p

op

u-

lati

on

an

d r

esil

ien

ce o

f in

fras

tru

ctu

re i

n t

he

pre

-dis

aste

r

ph

ase.

In

the

end

-use

rs’ a

pp

rais

al, a

ll it

ems

bu

t Dro

ugh

t Vu

l-

ner

abil

ity

Map

pin

g sc

ore

d >

50 %

fo

r h

igh

ly b

ene'

cial

, wit

h

sco

res

>60

% f

or

Ear

thq

uak

e D

amag

e A

sses

smen

t M

app

ing

and

Urb

an C

lass

i'ca

tio

n f

or

Ear

thq

uak

e R

isk

An

alys

is (

Fig

-

ure

4.1

0).

Wit

h t

he

exce

pti

on

of

Ear

thq

uak

e D

amag

e A

s-

sess

men

t M

app

ing,

all

ite

ms

sco

red

dis

tin

ctly

lo

wer

in

th

e

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs’ a

pp

rais

al (

Fig

ure

4.1

1).

Fig

ure

4.7

: Ben

e't

for

hea

lth

car

e (n

on

-en

d-u

sers

)

Fig

ure

4.8

: Ben

e't

for

crit

ical

in

fra

stru

ctu

re (

end

-use

rs)

Fig

ure

4.9

: Ben

e't

for

crit

ical

in

fra

stru

ctu

re (

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs)

Page 29: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

29

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4F

igu

re 4

.10:

Ben

e't

for

secu

rity

(en

d-u

sers

)

Fig

ure

4.1

1: B

ene'

t fo

r se

curi

ty (

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs)

Fig

ure

4.1

2: B

ene'

t fo

r e"

cien

cy o

f pl

ans

and

pol

icie

s (e

nd

-use

rs)

Page 30: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

30

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 Str

ateg

ic b

ene"

ts c

an b

e ex

pec

ted

mo

stly

on

th

e le

vel

of

pre

-dis

aste

r p

lan

nin

g fo

r ri

sk r

edu

ctio

n,

bu

t al

so i

n t

he

af-

term

ath

of a

dis

aste

r w

hen

it c

om

es to

co

pin

g w

ith

eco

no

mi-

cal l

oss

es a

nd

rec

on

stru

ctio

n.

E"

cien

cy o

f pl

ans

and

pol

icie

s in

Dis

aste

r an

d R

isk

Man

age-

men

t m

ay b

ene'

t fr

om

inte

grat

ing

the

geo

spat

ial d

imen

sio

n

into

th

e in

form

atio

n b

ase

for

stra

tegi

c d

ecis

ion

su

pp

ort

,

wh

ich

is

com

ple

men

tary

to

mer

ely

stat

isti

cal

dat

a. E

xcep

t

for

Fir

e R

isk

Map

pin

g, a

ll g

eoin

form

atio

n it

ems

wer

e ev

alu

-

ated

by

>50

% o

f th

e en

d-u

sers

gro

up

as

hig

hly

ben

e'ci

al,

wit

h t

he

hig

hes

t sc

ore

s fo

r U

rban

Ear

thq

uak

e R

isk

An

alys

is

(75

%)

and

Flo

od

Ris

k M

app

ing

(>70

%)

(Fig

ure

4.1

2). $

e

app

rais

al b

y n

on

-en

d-u

sers

fo

llo

wed

a s

imil

ar p

atte

rn w

ith

som

e sl

igh

tly

low

er h

igh

ben

e't

sco

res,

bu

t gi

vin

g m

ore

em

-

ph

asis

, ho

wev

er, t

o F

ire

Ris

k M

app

ing

(>60

%)

(Fig

ure

4.1

3).

Pu

blic

acc

epta

nce

of

plan

s an

d p

olic

ies

may

be

incr

ease

d e

s-

pec

iall

y b

y th

e vi

sual

rep

rese

nta

tio

n o

f d

amag

e, v

uln

erab

ili-

ties

an

d r

isk

s, a

s p

rovi

ded

by

suit

able

geo

info

rmat

ion

pro

d-

uct

s. U

nd

er t

his

asp

ect,

ho

wev

er,

the

ove

rall

eva

luat

ion

as

hig

hly

ben

e'ci

al w

as lo

wer

by

end

-use

rs (

Fig

ure

4.1

4), w

ith

just

Flo

od

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

pin

g sc

ori

ng

wel

l ab

ove

50 %

. In

co

mp

aris

on

, n

on

-en

d-u

sers

gav

e d

isti

nct

ly m

ore

emp

has

is t

o F

ire

Ris

k M

ap, D

rou

ght

Vu

lner

abil

ity

Map

, Ur-

ban

Ear

thq

uak

e R

isk

An

alys

is a

nd

Flo

od

Ris

k M

ap, a

ll s

cor-

ing

wit

h >

60 %

fo

r h

igh

ben

e't

(Fig

ure

4.1

5).

In g

ener

al,

the

resp

on

der

s as

sess

th

e b

ene'

ts o

f ge

osp

atia

l in

form

atio

n

as m

od

erat

e w

hen

aim

ing

to i

ncr

ease

pu

bli

c ac

cep

tan

ce o

f

pla

ns

and

po

lici

es.

Supp

ort

of s

upe

rreg

ion

al c

onsi

sten

cy a

nd

coo

pera

tion

, e.

g.

by

shar

ing

un

ifo

rm

geo

spat

ial

refe

ren

ce

info

rmat

ion

, is

a cr

itic

al s

trat

egic

iss

ue

in a

ll c

ases

wh

ere

a sp

atia

lly

ex-

ten

ded

tra

ns-

bo

un

dar

y h

azar

d h

as t

o b

e co

ped

wit

h, w

her

e

a gl

ob

al s

trat

egy

shal

l b

e im

ple

men

ted

, o

r w

her

e D

isas

ter

and

Ris

k M

anag

emen

t is

car

ried

ou

t in

a fe

der

al a

dm

inis

tra-

tive

sys

tem

. H

ere,

>50

% h

igh

ly b

ene'

cial

ap

pra

isal

s fr

om

end

-use

rs w

ere

give

n t

o F

ire

Det

ecti

on

an

d M

on

ito

rin

g,

Fig

ure

4.1

3: B

ene'

t fo

r e"

cien

cy o

f pl

ans

and

pol

icie

s (n

on

-en

d-u

sers

)

Fig

ure

4.1

4: B

ene'

t fo

r pu

blic

acc

epta

nce

of

plan

s an

d p

olic

ies

(en

d-u

sers

)

Fig

ure

4.1

5: B

ene'

t fo

r pu

blic

acc

epta

nce

of

plan

s an

d p

olic

ies

(no

n-e

nd

-use

rs)

Page 31: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

31

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4F

igu

re 4

.16:

Ben

e't

for

supp

ort

of s

upe

rreg

ion

al c

onsi

sten

cy a

nd

coo

pera

tion

(en

d-u

sers

)

Fig

ure

4.1

7: B

ene'

t fo

r su

ppor

t of

su

perr

egio

nal

con

sist

ency

an

d c

oope

rati

on (

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs)

Fig

ure

4.1

8: B

ene'

t fo

r re

du

cin

g lo

sses

in

pu

blic

eco

nom

y (e

nd

-use

rs)

Page 32: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

32

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4F

igu

re 4

.19:

Ben

e't

for

red

uci

ng

loss

es i

n p

ubl

ic e

con

omy

(no

n-e

nd

-use

rs)

Fig

ure

4.2

0: B

ene'

t fo

r su

ppor

t of

pre

ven

tive

str

ateg

ies

(en

d-u

sers

)

Fig

ure

4.2

1: B

ene'

t fo

r su

ppor

t of

pre

ven

tive

str

ateg

ies

(no

n-e

nd

-use

rs)

Ear

thq

uak

e D

amag

e A

sses

smen

t M

app

ing

(>55

%),

Urb

an

Ear

thq

uak

e R

isk

An

alys

is (

55 %

), a

nd

Flo

od

Dam

age

As-

sess

men

t M

app

ing

(Fig

ure

4.1

6).

All

ite

ms

sco

red

lo

wer

in t

he

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs’

app

rais

al,

wit

h t

he

exce

pti

on

of

Fir

e

Ris

k M

app

ing

(>55

%)

and

Dro

ugh

t V

uln

erab

ilit

y M

app

ing

(>70

%)

(Fig

ure

4.1

7).

Red

uci

ng

loss

es i

n t

he

publ

ic e

con

omy,

e.g

. b

y ri

sk r

edu

ctio

n

or

mo

re e

#ci

ent

emer

gen

cy r

esp

on

se, i

s ad

dre

ssed

in

mo

re

det

ail

in C

hap

ter

2. I

n t

he

glo

bal

ap

pra

isal

res

ult

s p

rese

nte

d

her

e, >

60 %

of

the

end

-use

rs g

rou

p e

valu

ated

mo

st i

tem

s as

hig

hly

ben

e'ci

al, w

ith

on

ly m

ino

r d

i&er

ence

s (F

igu

re 4

.18)

,

and

wit

h D

rou

ght

Vu

lner

abil

ity

Map

pin

g an

d F

loo

d R

isk

Mo

nit

ori

ng

(bo

th >

55 %

) co

min

g ju

st s

ho

rt o

f th

is s

core

.

All

item

s w

ere

eval

uat

ed lo

wer

in

th

e ap

pra

isal

by

no

n-e

nd

-

use

rs (

Fig

ure

4.1

9).

Supp

ort

of p

reve

nti

ve s

trat

egie

s h

as b

een

pro

ven

as

a h

igh

ly

e#ci

ent

app

roac

h t

o d

isas

ter

man

agem

ent

(see

Ch

apte

r 2)

and

may

ben

e't

fro

m g

eoin

form

atio

n e

.g.

in t

he

way

of

iden

tify

ing,

ass

essi

ng

and

lo

cati

ng

dis

aste

r ri

sks.

Acc

ord

-

ingl

y, i

n t

he

end

-use

r ap

pra

isal

of

hig

hly

ben

e'ci

al a

ll i

tem

s

exce

pt

Flo

od

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

(55

%)

sco

red

dis

tin

ctly

>60

% (

Fig

ure

4.2

0). F

rom

th

e n

on

-en

d-u

sers

po

int

of

view

,

the

resu

lts

for

hig

hly

ben

e'ci

al a

pp

rais

al a

re m

ore

var

-

ied

, b

ut

wit

h m

ost

ite

ms

wel

l ab

ove

50

%,

and

wit

h U

rban

Ear

thq

uak

e R

isk

An

alys

is (

>80

%)

and

Flo

od

Ris

k M

app

ing

(>75

%)

sco

rin

g ev

en h

igh

er f

or

hig

h b

ene'

t in

co

mp

aris

on

wit

h e

nd

-use

rs (

Fig

ure

4.2

1).

Page 33: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

33

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4assessm

en

t

Sisi

Zla

tan

ova

Flo

od

s ar

e am

on

g th

e m

ost

fr

equ

ent

dis

aste

rs

and

ar

e

ran

ked

as

nu

mb

er t

hre

e w

orl

d-w

ide

in f

req

uen

cy.

Eu

rop

e,

Am

eric

a, A

sia,

an

d A

ust

rali

a h

ave

rece

ntl

y w

itn

esse

d a

se-

vere

gro

wth

in

th

e sc

ale

and

fre

qu

ency

of

%o

od

eve

nts

. Fig

-

ure

4.1

.1 c

lear

ly s

ho

ws

that

sto

rms

and

%o

od

s ar

e th

e m

ost

extr

eme

and

fre

qu

ent

dis

aste

rs.

Fo

r ex

amp

le,

the

Elb

e %

oo

ds

in 2

002

cau

sed

a t

ota

l o

f

€ 8

bil

lio

n o

f ec

on

om

ic d

amag

e in

Ger

man

y, A

ust

ria

and

the

Cze

ch R

epu

bli

c. $

e ec

on

om

ic l

oss

es c

on

trib

ute

d t

o

red

uct

ion

s in

th

ese

cou

ntr

ies’

200

2 G

DP

of

0.54

%,

1.4

%

and

3.7

5 %

res

pec

tive

ly (

CE

A,

2007

). 9

1 %

of

the

mo

st s

e-

vere

cat

astr

op

hes

in

th

e w

orl

d h

ave

bee

n w

eath

er r

elat

ed:

300

sto

rms,

310

%o

od

s, s

torm

su

rges

an

d m

ass

mo

vem

ents

cau

sed

by

hea

vy r

ain

(M

un

ich

Re,

201

2).

Acc

ord

ing

to s

ta-

tist

ics

the

imp

act

of

%o

od

eve

nts

on

so

ciet

ies

and

eco

no

mie

s

wo

rld

wid

e is

lik

ely

to i

ncr

ease

, si

nce

po

pu

lati

on

den

siti

es

and

eco

no

mic

act

ivit

ies

alo

ng

rive

rs,

sea

sho

res

and

del

tas

hav

e in

crea

sed

an

d w

ill

incr

ease

fu

rth

er i

n t

he

futu

re.

Fu

r-

ther

mo

re,

the

freq

uen

cy a

nd

mag

nit

ud

e o

f %

oo

ds

are

ex-

pec

ted

to

gro

w d

ue

to t

he

imp

acts

of

clim

ate

chan

ge (

$ie

k-

en e

t al

., 20

06;

Tau

ben

ck e

t al

., 20

11;

Sham

aom

a et

al.,

2006

; CE

A, 2

007;

Mu

nic

h R

e, 2

012)

. $e

ann

ual

max

imu

m

pea

k d

isch

arge

s o

f m

ajo

r ri

vers

are

als

o e

xpec

ted

to

ris

e b

y

3–19

% b

y 20

50 (

Mid

del

ko

op

et

al.,

2001

). F

or

exam

ple

, te

Lin

de

et a

l. (2

011)

est

imat

e an

in

crea

se i

n t

he

%o

od

haz

ard

(e.g

. ex

trem

e 1/

1250

per

yea

r %

oo

d e

ven

ts)

by

a fa

cto

r o

f

thre

e in

th

e L

ow

er R

hin

e d

elta

by

2050

.

$es

e tr

end

s re

qu

ire

spec

ial a

tten

tio

n t

o %

oo

d e

arly

war

nin

g

as w

ell a

s %

oo

d a

nd

%o

od

ris

k m

anag

emen

t p

rote

ctio

n.

Acc

ord

ing

to A

rtic

le 2

of

the

Eu

rop

ean

Dir

ecti

ve o

n t

he

As-

sess

men

t an

d M

anag

emen

t o

f F

loo

d R

isk

s (E

U, 2

007)

:

“Flo

od“

mea

ns

the

tem

pora

ry c

over

ing

by w

ater

of

lan

d n

ot

nor

mal

ly c

over

ed b

y w

ater

. &

is s

hal

l in

clu

de

'oo

ds

from

rive

rs,

mou

nta

in t

orre

nts

, M

edit

erra

nea

n e

phem

eral

wat

er

cou

rses

, an

d '

ood

s fr

om t

he

sea

in

coa

stal

are

as,

an

d m

ay

excl

ud

e '

ood

s fr

om s

ewer

age

syst

ems;

“'oo

d r

isk“

mea

ns

the

com

bin

atio

n o

f th

e pr

obab

ilit

y of

a

'oo

d e

ven

t an

d o

f th

e po

ten

tial

ad

vers

e co

nse

quen

ces

for

hu

-

man

hea

lth

, th

e en

viro

nm

ent,

cu

ltu

ral h

erit

age

and

eco

nom

ic

acti

vity

ass

ocia

ted

wit

h a

'oo

d e

ven

t.

Gen

eral

ly,

%o

od

ing

is a

nat

ura

l an

d r

ecu

rrin

g ev

ent

for

a

rive

r o

r st

ream

. It

is

cau

sed

in

mo

st c

ases

by

hea

vy o

r co

n-

tin

uo

us

rain

fall

, w

hic

h e

xcee

ds

the

abso

rpti

on

cap

acit

y o

f

soil

an

d t

he

%o

w c

apac

ity

of

rive

rs. S

uch

rai

ns

may

ori

gin

ate

fro

m s

torm

s, t

orn

ado

es,

etc.

Ho

wev

er %

oo

ds

can

be

cau

sed

also

by

rap

id m

elti

ng

of

sno

w c

aps

du

e to

tem

per

atu

re p

eak

s

or

the

regu

lar

spri

ng

thaw

, b

y ea

rth

qu

akes

an

d c

on

seq

uen

t

tsu

nam

i, a

nd

by

dam

an

d d

yke

bu

rsts

du

e to

nat

ura

l ev

ents

or

hu

man

fai

lure

. A

ll t

hes

e ev

ents

cau

se w

ater

cou

rses

to

ove

r%o

w t

hei

r b

ank

s o

r d

ykes

an

d i

nu

nd

ate

the

surr

ou

nd

-

ing

lan

ds.

$es

e %

oo

ded

are

as,

usu

ally

ref

erre

d t

o a

s %

oo

d-

pla

ins,

are

th

e m

ost

%o

od

-pro

ne.

Vo

lcan

ic e

rup

tio

ns

on

glac

iers

or

sno

w-c

ove

red

vo

lcan

ic p

eak

s ca

n a

lso

res

ult

in

a su

dd

en %

oo

d o

r fa

st-m

ovi

ng

mu

d%

ow

s, w

hic

h m

ay c

reat

e

stre

ams

that

are

ou

tsid

e th

e n

orm

al r

iver

bed

s, c

ausi

ng

even

mo

re d

amag

e an

d lo

ss o

f li

fe.

Fre

qu

ency

is

on

e o

f th

e m

ost

cri

tica

l ch

arac

teri

stic

s o

f a

%o

od

eve

nt.

$e

%o

od

may

be

des

crib

ed a

s a

1 in

5-y

ear,

20-y

ear,

50-

year

, 100

-yea

r, o

r ev

en 5

00-y

ear

%o

od

eve

nt.

Fo

r

exam

ple

a 1

00-y

ear

%o

od

mea

ns

that

an

are

a is

su

bje

ct t

o a

1 %

pro

bab

ilit

y o

f a

cert

ain

siz

e o

f %

oo

d i

n a

giv

en y

ear,

i.e

.

the

chan

ce o

f th

e %

oo

d is

1%

eve

ry y

ear.

$at

do

es n

ot

mea

n

that

a c

erta

in s

ize

%o

od

wil

l occ

ur

on

ce e

very

100

yea

rs. $

e

bo

un

dar

y o

f th

e 10

0-ye

ar %

oo

d is

an

imp

ort

ant

mea

sure

an

d

com

mo

nly

use

d in

all

kin

ds

of

mit

igat

ion

pro

gram

s to

iden

-

tify

are

as o

f si

gni'

can

t %

oo

din

g h

azar

d (

OA

S, 1

991)

.

Fig

ure

4.1

.1: C

atas

tro

ph

es s

tati

stic

s p

ub

lish

ed b

y M

un

ich

Re,

201

2

Page 34: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

34

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 Giv

en t

he

com

ple

xity

of

and

th

e re

aso

n f

or

the

occ

urr

ence

of

%o

od

s, i

t is

alm

ost

im

po

ssib

le t

o c

reat

e a

com

ple

te a

nd

accu

rate

pic

ture

of

%o

od

po

ten

tial

. Si

mil

arly

, it

is

di#

cult

to p

reci

sely

est

imat

e %

oo

ded

are

as a

nd

dam

age

that

mig

ht

be

cau

sed

. $

e m

ost

co

mm

on

ap

pro

ach

is

to d

elin

eate

th

e

%o

od

pla

ins

or

%o

od

-pro

ne

area

s an

d c

on

sid

er t

hem

as

risk

area

s. $

e m

ajo

r an

d v

ery

valu

able

co

ntr

ibu

tio

n o

f re

mo

te

sen

sin

g is

th

at i

t p

rovi

de

rap

id m

eth

od

s o

f m

app

ing

and

mo

nit

ori

ng

%o

od

ed a

reas

an

d p

red

icti

ng

po

ssib

le e

xten

sio

ns

of t

he

%o

od

. Var

iou

s 2D

an

d 3

D p

rod

uct

s ca

n b

e p

rep

ared

to

asse

ss t

he

exte

nt

of

the

%o

od

pla

ins

and

act

ual

%o

od

ed a

reas

.

In t

his

ch

apte

r w

e h

ave

con

sid

ered

fo

ur

typ

es o

f p

rod

uct

s:

Flo

od

Ris

k M

ap,

Flo

od

Ris

k M

on

ito

rin

g Sy

stem

, F

loo

d I

n-

un

dat

ion

Map

an

d F

loo

d D

amag

e A

sses

smen

t M

ap.

$e

pu

rpo

se o

f a

Flo

od

Ris

k M

ap i

s to

del

inea

te t

he

area

s

pro

ne

to %

oo

din

g. G

ener

ally

su

ch m

aps

sho

uld

be

avai

lab

le

in a

dva

nce

of

a %

oo

d e

ven

t an

d s

ho

uld

no

t o

nly

co

nsi

der

the

thre

at o

f %

oo

din

g b

ut

also

%o

od

mit

igat

ion

an

d i

ts i

m-

pac

t o

n u

rban

dev

elo

pm

ent.

Flo

od

Ris

k M

on

ito

rin

g Sy

stem

s

sho

uld

be

able

to

det

ect

crit

ical

sp

atia

l ch

ange

s in

%o

od

haz

-

ard

an

d v

uln

erab

ilit

y o

ver

tim

e. A

Flo

od

In

un

dat

ion

Map

is

pre

par

ed m

ost

co

mm

on

ly i

mm

edia

tely

a>

er a

%o

od

eve

nt

has

tak

en p

lace

an

d a

ims

to d

elin

eate

th

e ac

tual

%o

od

ed a

r-

eas

incl

ud

ing

the

wat

er d

epth

s.

$e

fou

rth

pro

du

ct i

s th

e

Flo

od

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

wh

ich

aim

s to

pre

sen

t d

e-

tail

s o

f so

cio

-eco

no

mic

dam

age.

$e

pre

par

atio

n o

f m

aps

for

%o

od

ris

k m

anag

emen

t, m

on

i-

tori

ng

and

dam

age

asse

ssm

ents

has

alw

ays

bee

n s

een

as

an i

mp

ort

ant

acti

vity

to

en

sure

in

form

atio

n i

s sh

ared

an

d

the

com

mu

nit

y is

in

form

ed a

bo

ut

the

even

t. $

e T

ech

nic

al

Pro

'le

s in

Tab

les

4.1.

1 to

4.1

.4 s

pec

ify

the

info

rmat

ion

th

at

mu

st b

e in

clu

ded

in

th

ese

pro

du

cts.

So

me

of

the

dat

a in

th

ese

tab

les

is a

lrea

dy

avai

lab

le i

n G

IS

laye

rs (

lan

d c

ove

r, a

dm

inis

trat

ive

un

its,

po

pu

lati

on

den

sity

,

urb

an f

abri

cs,

etc.

), w

hil

e o

ther

dat

a (s

uch

as

wat

er d

epth

,

Top

icA

reas

pro

ne

to %

oo

d d

amag

e

"em

ati

c co

nte

nt

4 ri

sk c

lass

es, b

ased

on

top

ogr

aph

ic b

ase

map

,

inu

nd

atio

n

area

s as

re

fere

nce

scen

ario

wat

er d

epth

po

pu

lati

on

den

sity

lan

du

se

urb

an f

abri

c

loca

tio

n

of

vuln

erab

le

ob

ject

s

(as

sch

oo

ls, h

osp

ital

s)

loca

tio

n o

f cri

tica

l in

fras

tru

ctu

re

(pip

e li

nes

, ga

s st

atio

ns,

fac

to-

ries

)

Acc

ess

Up

on

reg

istr

atio

n v

ia i

nte

rnet

Sca

le1:

2,00

0 -

1:10

,000

Acc

ura

cy0.

5 m

- 1

m g

eom

etri

c ac

cura

cy a

c-

cord

ing

to t

hem

atic

cla

ss

Are

al

cove

rage

Reg

ion

al

Spa

tia

l re

solu

tion

1 m

– 5

m

Tim

elin

ess

No

t re

leva

nt

for

risk

ass

essm

ent

Up

da

te f

req

uen

cy5

year

s

Da

ta f

orm

at

Ras

ter

or

vect

or

(OG

C

stan

dar

ds

sho

uld

be

use

d)

Tab

le 4

.1.1

: Tec

hn

ical

Pro

'le

of

Flo

od

Ris

k M

ap

Top

icSp

atia

l ch

ange

s in

%o

od

haz

ard

an

d

vuln

erab

ilit

y o

ver

tim

e

"em

ati

c co

nte

nt

To

po

grap

hic

bas

e m

ap

Ch

ange

det

ecti

on

map

s o

n

lan

du

se a

nd

veg

etat

ion

wat

er b

od

ies

urb

an f

abri

c

po

pu

lati

on

den

sity

asse

t va

lues

tota

l pre

cip

itat

ion

Acc

ess

Up

on

reg

istr

atio

n v

ia i

nte

rnet

Sca

le1:

25,0

00 –

1:3

,000

,000

Acc

ura

cy5

m -

500

m g

eom

etri

c ac

cura

cy a

c-

cord

ing

to t

hem

atic

cla

ss

Are

al

cove

rage

Reg

ion

al

Spa

tia

l re

solu

tion

10 m

- 1

,000

m a

cco

rdin

g to

th

emat

ic

clas

s

Tim

elin

ess

No

t re

leva

nt

for

risk

ass

essm

ent

Up

da

te f

req

uen

cy5

year

s; <

1 w

eek

fo

r p

reci

pit

atio

n

dat

a

Da

ta f

orm

at

Ras

ter

or

vect

or

(OG

C

stan

dar

d-

bas

ed)

Tab

le 4

.1.2

: Tec

hn

ical

Pro

'le

of

Flo

od

Ris

k M

on

ito

rin

g Sy

s-

tem

Page 35: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

35

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4in

un

dat

ion

ext

ent,

to

tal

pre

cip

itat

ion

) h

ave

to b

e o

bta

ined

fro

m i

n s

itu

sen

sors

. In

man

y ca

ses,

th

e av

aila

bil

ity

of

the

map

pro

du

cts

is h

igh

ly d

epen

den

t o

n d

ynam

ic m

easu

re-

men

ts: i

.e. t

he

sen

sors

an

d t

he

pla

tfo

rms

that

co

uld

be

use

d

to c

oll

ect

dat

a. F

or

exam

ple

, %

oo

ds

are

freq

uen

tly

acco

m-

pan

ied

by

den

se c

lou

d c

ove

r, w

hic

h m

ay r

equ

ire

eith

er a

n

acti

ve r

adar

sen

sor

that

can

pen

etra

te c

lou

ds,

or

an o

pti

cal

imag

ing

syst

em t

hat

wo

uld

%y

ben

eath

clo

ud

lev

el (

Zw

en-

zner

an

d V

oig

t 20

09,

Zh

ang

and

Ker

le 2

008)

. H

ow

ever

,

rad

ar-b

ased

in

un

dat

ion

map

s re

qu

ire

add

itio

nal

pro

cess

-

ing,

lea

din

g to

hig

her

co

sts

and

del

ays

in i

nfo

rmat

ion

ava

il-

abil

ity.

Rad

ar i

nte

nsi

ty i

mag

es a

re m

ost

co

mm

on

ly u

sed

to

del

inea

te i

nu

nd

atio

n,

as t

he

wat

er a

pp

ears

bla

ck a

>er

th

e

imag

e is

pro

cess

ed (

Fig

ure

4.1

.2).

Jia

ng

and

Cao

(19

94)

rep

ort

ed o

ne

of

the

'rs

t o

per

atio

nal

air

bo

rne

rad

ar %

oo

d

man

agem

ent

syst

ems

in C

hin

a, w

her

e d

ata

wer

e o

bta

ined

real

-tim

e fr

om

a s

atel

lite

.

Air

bo

rne

sen

sors

typ

ical

ly h

ave

hig

her

sp

atia

l re

solu

tio

ns

(cen

tim

etre

s to

a f

ew m

etre

s) t

han

mo

st s

atel

lite

sen

sors

(met

res

to k

ilo

met

res)

, al

tho

ugh

th

e sp

atia

l re

solu

tio

ns

of

pan

chro

mat

ic im

ages

on

so

me

op

tica

l im

agin

g sa

tell

ites

can

also

ach

ieve

clo

se t

o 0

.5 m

. $

is m

ean

s th

at f

or

larg

e sc

ale

%o

od

ing

a re

solu

tio

n o

f 10

0-50

0 m

may

be

su#

cien

t fo

r a

gen

eral

ove

rvie

w

inu

nd

atio

n m

ap,

wh

ile

for

mo

re l

oca

l-

ized

vie

ws

and

info

rmin

g ci

tize

ns,

esp

ecia

lly

in u

rban

are

as,

sub

-met

re d

etai

l w

ou

ld b

e m

ore

ap

pro

pri

ate

($o

mp

son

et

al. 2

011)

. F

urt

her

mo

re, t

he

exis

ten

ce o

f a

pre

-eve

nt

Dig

ital

Ter

rain

Mo

del

(D

TM

) o

r D

igit

al E

leva

tio

n M

od

el (

DE

M)

is r

eco

mm

end

ed f

or

mo

re a

ccu

rate

co

mp

uta

tio

n o

f in

un

da-

tio

n l

evel

s. M

any

cou

ntr

ies

hav

e at

th

eir

dis

po

sal

nat

ion

al

DT

Ms,

bu

t th

eir

qu

alit

y va

ries

gre

atly

. In

tegr

atin

g 2D

wit

h

3D i

nfo

rmat

ion

ext

end

s th

e o

pti

on

s to

per

form

mo

re c

om

-

ple

x an

alys

is o

f %

oo

d b

ehav

iou

r. I

nu

nd

atio

n e

xten

t o

utl

ines

mer

ged

wit

h 3

D b

uil

din

g d

ata

allo

w t

he

esti

mat

ion

of

wh

ich

%o

ors

in

bu

ild

ings

mig

ht

be

secu

re f

rom

%o

od

s (F

igu

re

4.1.

3).

Giv

en f

req

uen

tly

rep

eate

d d

ata

acq

uis

itio

n c

ycle

s,

chan

ges

ove

r ti

me

can

als

o b

e es

tim

ated

. An

in

tere

stin

g ap

-

pli

cati

on

re%

ecti

ng

the

chan

ges

in t

he

%o

od

ove

r ti

me

was

Top

icF

loo

ded

are

as

"em

ati

c co

nte

nt

To

po

grap

hic

bas

e m

ap

Co

nto

urs

of

%o

od

ed a

reas

Wat

er d

epth

Acc

ess

Up

on

reg

istr

atio

n v

ia i

nte

rnet

Sca

le1:

1,00

0 -

1:1,

000,

000

Acc

ura

cy1

m -

100

m

Are

al

cove

rage

Reg

ion

al

Spa

tia

l re

solu

tion

0.5

m -

250

m

Tim

elin

ess

few

ho

urs

a>

er a

n e

mer

gen

cy

Up

da

te f

req

uen

cyS

ever

al h

ou

rs t

o 1

-2 d

ays

Da

ta f

orm

at

Ras

ter

Map

s an

d

vect

or

dat

aset

s

(OG

C s

tan

dar

d)

Tab

le 4

.1.3

: Tec

hn

ical

Pro

'le

of

Inu

nd

atio

n M

ap

Top

icSp

atia

l d

istr

ibu

tio

n o

f ec

on

om

ic d

a-

mag

e d

ue

to %

oo

din

g

"em

ati

c co

nte

nt

Agg

rega

ted

mo

net

ary

loss

es i

n

resi

den

tial

co

nte

nt

ind

ust

rial

str

uct

ure

agri

cult

ura

l cro

p

bas

ed o

n

lan

dco

ver/

lan

du

se

adm

inis

trat

ive

un

its

soci

oec

on

om

ic s

tati

stic

s

inu

nd

atio

n e

xten

t an

d d

ura

tio

n

wat

er d

epth

Acc

ess

Up

on

reg

istr

atio

n v

ia i

nte

rnet

Sca

le1:

1,00

0 –

1:6

0,00

0

Acc

ura

cy15

m g

eom

etri

c ac

cura

cy

Are

al

cove

rage

Reg

ion

al

Spa

tia

l re

solu

tion

30 m

Tim

elin

ess

1 -

2 d

ays

a>er

an

em

erge

ncy

Up

da

te f

req

uen

cy1

- 2

day

s fo

r ac

tual

%o

od

mo

nit

ori

ng

Da

ta f

orm

at

Ras

ter

or

vect

or

(OG

C s

tan

dar

d)

Tab

le 4

.1.4

: T

ech

nic

al P

ro'

le o

f F

loo

d D

amag

e A

sses

smen

t

Map

Page 36: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

36

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 dis

pla

yed

by

AB

C N

ews

(Au

stra

lian

Bro

adca

stin

g C

orp

o-

rati

on

) to

ob

serv

e an

d c

om

par

e ar

eas

‘bef

ore

an

d a

>er

’ th

e

%o

od

eve

nts

(F

igu

re 4

.1.4

).

$e

cost

of

acq

uir

ing

the

map

pro

du

ct s

ho

uld

als

o b

e co

n-

sid

ered

. F

or

exam

ple

in

a

clo

ud

y si

tuat

ion

, w

hil

e ra

dar

dat

a m

igh

t b

e re

com

men

ded

fo

r in

un

dat

ion

map

pin

g, i

t is

un

lik

ely

that

su

ch d

ata

wil

l b

e av

aila

ble

an

d i

t w

ill

in a

ny

case

be

exp

ensi

ve. A

no

n-c

alib

rate

d o

pti

cal p

ho

togr

aph

, ac-

qu

ired

by

a ca

mer

a o

n a

kit

e m

igh

t co

st a

few

do

llar

s, w

hil

e

the

acq

uis

itio

n a

nd

pro

cess

ing,

dep

end

ing

on

th

e p

rovi

der

,

of

an i

nte

rfer

om

etri

c ra

dar

pro

du

ct m

igh

t ex

ceed

US$

100

0

(Ker

le e

t al

200

8).

Hen

ce a

sit

uat

ion

-sp

eci'

c co

mp

rom

ise

mu

st a

pp

ly.

$er

e ar

e se

vera

l sys

tem

s th

at r

esem

ble

th

e d

ata

con

ten

t an

d

fun

ctio

nal

ity

as s

pec

i'ed

in

th

e T

ech

nic

al P

ro'

les

in T

able

s

4.1.

1.to

4.1

.4.

A g

oo

d e

xam

ple

of

a F

loo

d R

isk

Map

mai

n-

tain

ed o

ver

the

inte

rnet

is

the

Du

tch

‘ri

sico

kaa

rt’

(ww

w.

risi

cok

aart

.nl)

. $

e w

eb s

ite

was

dev

elo

ped

in

res

po

nse

to

Act

12

of

Dir

ecti

ve S

ewes

o I

I (h

ttp

://e

c.eu

rop

a.eu

/en

viro

n-

men

t/se

veso

/),

wh

ich

ob

lige

s co

mp

anie

s an

d p

rovi

der

s to

ind

icat

e an

y d

ange

rou

s in

stal

lati

on

s o

n t

hei

r si

tes,

wh

ich

sto

re o

r u

se c

hem

ical

s, p

etro

chem

ical

s an

d m

etal

re'

nin

g

sect

ors

in

lar

ge q

ual

itie

s. $

e D

utc

h a

uth

ori

ties

hav

e in

-

clu

ded

%o

od

pla

ins

in t

hes

e m

aps.

$e

web

sit

e is

pu

bli

cly

avai

lab

le,

mai

nta

ined

by

the

Du

tch

pro

vin

ces

and

pro

vid

es

top

ogr

aph

ic b

ase

map

, %

oo

d p

ron

e ar

eas,

wit

h w

ater

dep

th

ind

icat

ed b

y co

lou

rs,

loca

tio

n o

f vu

lner

able

est

abli

shm

ents

(su

ch a

s sc

ho

ols

, h

osp

ital

s) a

nd

lo

cati

on

of

crit

ical

in

fra-

stru

ctu

re (

pip

e li

nes

, ga

s st

atio

ns,

fac

tori

es)

(Fig

ure

4.1

.5).

$e

iso

-are

as a

re g

iven

on

ly f

or

dan

gero

us

esta

bli

shm

ents

.

Fu

rth

erm

ore

, th

e in

form

atio

n p

rovi

ded

is

rath

er l

imit

ed.

Iso

-are

as r

epre

sen

t th

e in

div

idu

al r

isk

at

the

give

n l

oca

tio

n,

wh

ich

is

de'

ned

as

the

stat

isti

cal

pro

bab

ilit

y th

at a

per

son

wh

o i

s p

erm

anen

tly

pre

sen

t at

a c

erta

in l

oca

tio

n i

n t

he

vi-

cin

ity

of

a h

azar

do

us

acti

vity

, wil

l be

kil

led

as

a co

nse

qu

ence

of

an a

ccid

ent

wit

hin

th

at a

ctiv

ity

(Zla

tan

ova

an

d F

abb

ri,

2009

).

Fig

ure

4.1

.2: R

adar

im

ages

: a)

ori

gin

al i

nte

nsi

ty i

mag

e, a

nd

b)

%o

od

ed a

rea

a>er

pro

cess

ing

(Ker

le e

t al

. 200

8)

Fig

ure

4.1

.3: 3

D v

isu

aliz

atio

n o

f %

oo

d Q

uee

nsl

and

, Au

stra

lia

(co

urt

esy

3VI)

Page 37: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

37

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4

Fig

ure

4.1

.4:

Hig

h r

eso

luti

on

op

tica

l im

ages

, Q

uee

nsl

and

%o

od

s, A

ust

rali

a (c

ou

rtes

y A

BC

New

s)

In r

ecen

t ye

ars

man

y sy

stem

s h

ave

bee

n d

evel

op

ed f

or

in-

un

dat

ion

map

pin

g. A

n e

xam

ple

is

pro

vid

ed b

y V

IKIN

G

(htt

p:/

/ww

w.p

rogr

amm

avik

ing.

nl/

), w

ith

th

e co

op

erat

ion

of

two

pro

vin

ces

in t

he

Net

her

lan

ds

and

Ger

man

y. $

e sy

stem

has

man

y o

f th

e fu

nct

ion

alit

ies

of

a tr

adit

ion

al G

IS a

nd

al-

low

s m

any

laye

rs t

o b

e o

verl

aid

an

d a

nal

yzed

. $

e gr

aph

ic

use

r in

terf

ace

is b

ased

on

map

s an

d a

eria

l ph

oto

grap

hs.

In

-

un

dat

ion

are

as a

re i

nte

ract

ivel

y sh

ow

n o

n t

he

scre

en w

ith

pre

dic

tio

n a

nim

atio

n. S

ever

al m

od

ule

s h

ave

bee

n d

evel

op

ed

wh

ich

all

ow

fo

r in

un

dat

ion

war

nin

g in

form

atio

n o

r fo

r

trai

nin

g an

d s

imu

lati

on

s. D

el>

-FE

WS

(Flo

od

Ear

ly W

arn

-

ing

Syst

em)

(htt

p:/

/ww

w.w

ldel

>.n

l/so

>/f

ews/

int/

ind

ex.

htm

l) is

an

oth

er e

xam

ple

of

an in

un

dat

ion

map

pin

g sy

stem

.

$e

syst

em i

s b

asic

ally

a c

om

bin

atio

n o

f d

ynam

ic h

ydro

-

logi

cal

mo

del

s an

d h

igh

ly-f

un

ctio

nal

-rea

l-ti

me-

sim

ula

tio

n

so>

war

e. I

t p

rovi

des

ess

enti

al g

ener

ic G

IS f

un

ctio

nal

ity

for

han

dli

ng

real

-tim

e d

ata,

dat

a as

sim

ilat

ion

an

d m

anag

ing

fore

cast

ru

ns.

O

SIR

IS (

Erl

ich

, 200

7) i

s ye

t an

oth

er i

nu

nd

a-

tio

n m

app

ing

syst

em.

$e

emp

has

is i

n t

his

sys

tem

is

on

an

inte

rfac

e w

hic

h c

an h

elp

cit

izen

s u

nd

erst

and

o#

cial

fo

re-

cast

s. $

e sy

stem

als

o a

llo

ws

for

inte

grat

ion

of

vari

ou

s d

ata

such

as

risk

map

s, %

oo

d p

reve

nti

on

pla

ns

and

res

cue

org

a-

niz

atio

nal

ch

arts

.

Sev

eral

sys

tem

s h

ave

bee

n d

evel

op

ed a

s w

eb p

ort

als

to p

ro-

vid

e ea

rly

war

nin

g an

d o

n-g

oin

g in

form

atio

n o

n t

he

exte

nt

of

inu

nd

atio

n.

$e

goal

of

thes

e sy

stem

s is

pri

mar

ily

to i

n-

form

on

in

un

dat

ion

rat

her

th

an s

pec

i'ca

lly

mo

nit

or

inu

n-

dat

ion

ext

ent,

bu

t st

ill m

any

are

able

to

pro

du

ce m

aps

sho

w-

ing

inu

nd

atio

n e

xten

ts a

nd

dep

ths.

$es

e m

aps

then

can

be

re-u

sed

wh

en n

eed

ed.

Fo

r ex

amp

le t

he

JRC

Flo

od

s P

ort

al

(Fig

ure

4.1

.6)

pro

vid

es i

nfo

rmat

ion

ab

ou

t o

ngo

ing

inu

nd

a-

tio

n, %

oo

d d

isas

ters

, eco

no

mic

s o

f %

oo

d r

isk

, ru

n-o

& s

imu

-

lati

on

mo

del

s, c

lim

ate

imp

act

chan

ges,

etc

.

Bes

ides

th

e re

al-t

ime

info

rmat

ion

, sev

eral

map

s al

so e

xhib

it

%o

od

dam

age

pro

bab

ilit

ies

or

%o

od

dis

aste

rs o

ver

the

pas

t

50 y

ears

. F

igu

re 4

.1.5

: In

tegr

ated

ris

k m

ap r

epre

sen

tin

g %

oo

d r

isk

are

as,

dan

gero

us

esta

bli

shm

ents

acco

rdin

g to

th

e S

ewez

o d

irec

tive

an

d v

uln

erab

le o

bje

cts

(htt

p:/

/ww

w.r

isic

ok

aart

.nl)

Page 38: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

38

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 $o

mp

son

et

al.

(201

1) h

ave

inve

stig

ated

th

e in

un

dat

ion

map

p

rep

ared

b

y D

artm

ou

th

Flo

od

O

bse

rvat

ory

, w

hic

h

cove

rs t

he

enti

re w

orl

d (

htt

p:/

/%o

od

ob

serv

ato

ry.c

olo

rad

o.

edu

/).

It i

s n

ot

bas

ed o

n c

on

tin

uo

us

map

pin

g an

d i

s tr

ig-

gere

d b

y p

ress

rep

ort

s o

f %

oo

d e

ven

ts f

rom

aro

un

d t

he

wo

rld

. $e

Dar

tmo

uth

met

adat

a is

lim

ited

. $e

actu

al t

ime

and

dat

e o

f th

e ra

w d

ata

is n

ot

imm

edia

tely

ava

ilab

le to

use

rs

and

nee

ds

to b

e co

mm

un

icat

ed m

ore

cle

arly

. R

esea

rch

has

reve

aled

th

at t

he

Dar

tmo

uth

%o

od

pro

du

ct c

on

sist

s o

f an

accu

mu

lati

on

of

six

MO

DIS

im

ages

(36

sp

ectr

al b

and

s) a

c-

qu

ired

ove

r th

ree

day

per

iod

s. $

e sp

atia

l re

solu

tio

n i

s 25

0

m (

ban

ds

1-2)

, 500

m (

ban

ds

3-7)

an

d 1

km

(o

ther

ban

ds)

.

Sev

eral

dev

elo

pm

ents

hav

e b

een

rep

ort

ed o

n F

loo

d D

am-

age

Map

s. H

erat

h (

2003

) p

rese

nte

d a

n e

xam

ple

of

a F

loo

d

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

bas

ed o

n s

tage

-dam

age

fun

ctio

ns

wh

ich

ar

e b

ette

r es

tim

ates

th

an

on

ly

inte

rvie

ws.

St

age-

dam

age

fun

ctio

ns

are

der

ived

fro

m a

nal

ytic

al i

nd

icat

ors

for

%o

od

in

un

dat

ion

an

d d

ura

tio

n. $

e st

ud

y el

abo

rate

d o

n

the

Jap

anes

e d

amag

e es

tim

atio

n m

eth

od

, w

hic

h u

ses

seve

n

dam

age

clas

ses

ind

icat

ing

mo

net

ary

loss

es d

ue

to d

amag

e

to r

esid

enti

al c

on

ten

t, i

nd

ust

rial

str

uct

ure

s an

d a

gric

ult

ura

l

cro

ps.

To

det

erm

ine

the

esti

mat

es a

gri

d %

oo

d d

amag

e m

ap

is p

rep

ared

co

nsi

stin

g o

f to

po

grap

hic

map

, la

nd

use

map

,

adm

inis

trat

ive

un

its,

in

un

dat

ion

ext

ent,

wat

er d

epth

an

d

du

rati

on

an

d s

oci

o-e

con

om

ic s

tati

stic

s. A

no

ther

exa

mp

le o

f

a F

loo

d D

amag

e M

ap i

s p

rese

nte

d b

y V

enk

atac

har

y et

al.

(200

1).

$e

mo

net

ary

loss

es d

ue

to c

rop

dam

age

wer

e es

ti-

mat

ed w

ith

th

e h

elp

of

a F

loo

d D

amag

e M

ap c

om

po

sed

of

lan

du

se/l

and

cove

r, a

dm

inis

trat

ive

bo

un

dar

ies,

agr

icu

ltu

ral

stat

isti

cs a

nd

in

un

dat

ion

ext

ent

and

du

rati

on

laye

rs. S

imil

ar

app

roac

hes

are

rep

ort

ed b

y $

iek

en e

t al

. (20

06)

and

Sri

vas-

tava

et

al. (

2000

).

Fig

ure

4.

1.6:

JR

C

Flo

od

s P

ort

al

exh

ibit

ing

info

rmat

ion

abo

ut

curr

ent

%o

od

s.

Fig

ure

4.

1.7:

Flo

od

dam

age

po

ten

tial

(av

aila

ble

at

Flo

od

s

Po

rtal

)

Page 39: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

39

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4

Fig

ure

4.1

.8:

Maj

or

%o

od

dis

aste

rs i

n E

uro

pe,

195

0-20

05

(ava

ilab

le a

t F

loo

ds

Po

rtal

)F

igu

re 4

.1.9

: $e

Dar

tmo

uth

Flo

od

Ob

serv

ato

ry p

ort

al

Fig

ure

4.1

.10:

Exa

mp

les

of %

oo

d m

aps:

a)

Qu

een

slan

d %

oo

ds,

Dar

thm

ou

th %

oo

d s

up

erim

po

sed

on

Lan

dsa

t 5

($o

mp

son

et a

l., 2

011)

, b):

Flo

od

s in

Ger

man

y 20

13, p

rod

uct

pro

vid

ed

on

th

e D

artm

ou

th p

ort

al

Page 40: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

40

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 Les

s th

an 1

0 %

of

the

end

-use

rs h

ave

rate

d t

he

pro

du

cts

as

of

low

ben

e't.

No

n-e

nd

-use

rs g

ener

ally

hav

e gi

ven

sli

ghtl

y

low

er r

atin

gs e

spec

iall

y fo

r o

per

atio

nal

ben

e"t.

$e

stra

-

teg

ic b

ene"

ts o

f al

l %

oo

d p

rod

uct

s h

ave

bee

n e

stim

ated

as

hig

hly

rel

evan

t b

y th

e va

st m

ajo

rity

of

end

-use

rs.

Flo

od R

isk M

ap

Co

nsi

der

ing

the

op

erat

ion

al b

ene"

ts,

mo

re t

han

90

% o

f

end

-use

rs a

nd

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs a

lik

e h

ave

att

rib

ute

d a

hig

h

ben

e't

of

this

pro

du

ct w

ith

reg

ard

to

th

e cr

itic

al i

nfr

ast

ruc-

ture

, wh

ich

is in

dee

d m

ost

a&

ecte

d b

y %

oo

ds

(Fig

ure

s 4.

1.11

;

4.1.

12).

Mo

re t

han

70

% o

f th

e en

d-u

sers

eva

luat

ed F

loo

d

Ris

k M

aps

as h

igh

ly b

ene'

cial

als

o f

or

hu

man

itar

ian

aid

.

Ap

art

fro

m c

riti

cal

infr

astr

uct

ure

, b

ene'

ts t

o o

ther

op

era-

tio

nal

issu

es s

core

d d

isti

nct

ly lo

wer

in

th

e ap

pra

isal

by

no

n-

end

-use

rs.

Reg

ard

ing

stra

teg

ic b

ene"

ts,

the

end

-use

rs f

ou

nd

Flo

od

Ris

k M

app

ing

to b

e h

igh

ly b

ene'

cial

to

in

crea

se t

he

e#-

cien

cy o

f p

lan

s an

d p

oli

cies

(>

70 %

), t

o s

upp

ort

prev

enti

ve

stra

tegi

es a

nd

to

red

uce

los

ses

in p

ubl

ic e

con

omy

(>60

%,

re-

spec

tive

ly)

(Fig

ure

4.1

.13)

. H

ere,

th

e ap

pra

isal

by

no

n-e

nd

-

use

rs f

oll

ow

ed a

sim

ilar

pat

tern

(F

igu

re 4

.1.1

4).

Reg

ard

ing

the

crit

ical

ity

of

spec

i"c

pro

du

ct f

eatu

res

(Fig

-

ure

4.1

.15)

, en

d-u

sers

hav

e in

dic

ated

th

emat

ic c

onte

nt

and

spat

ial

reso

luti

on a

s th

e m

ost

cri

tica

l fe

atu

res.

$is

is

no

t

surp

risi

ng

as t

he

them

atic

con

ten

t re

%ec

ts t

he

qu

alit

y o

f ri

sk

info

rmat

ion

, an

d s

pati

al r

esol

uti

on t

he

spat

ial

pre

cisi

on

of

Flo

od

Ris

k M

aps.

In

co

mp

aris

on

, n

on

-en

d-u

sers

ass

ign

ed

a h

igh

er i

mp

ort

ance

to

are

al c

over

age

and

acc

ess

(Fig

ure

4.1.

16).

Fig

ure

4.1

.12:

Op

erat

ion

al B

ene'

ts o

f Flo

od

Ris

k M

ap (

non

- en

d-u

ser

appr

aisa

l)

Fig

ure

4.1

.14:

Str

ateg

ic B

ene'

ts o

f Flo

od

Ris

k M

ap (

no

n-e

nd

-use

r ap

pra

isal

)

Fig

ure

4.1

.16:

C

riti

cali

ty o

f sp

eci'

c fe

atu

res

of

Flo

od

Ris

k M

ap (

no

n-e

nd

-

use

r ap

pra

isal

)

Fig

ure

4.1

.11:

Op

erat

ion

al B

ene'

ts o

f F

loo

d R

isk

Map

(en

d-u

ser

app

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.1

.13:

Str

ateg

ic B

ene'

ts o

f F

loo

d R

isk

Map

(en

d-u

ser

app

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.1

.15:

C

riti

calit

y of

sp

eci'

c fe

atu

res

of F

loo

d R

isk

Map

(en

d-u

ser

ap-

pra

isal

)

Page 41: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

41

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4F

lood R

isk M

onitoring S

yste

m

Am

on

g th

e o

per

atio

nal

b

ene"

ts,

end

-use

rs

eval

uat

ed

Flo

od

Ris

k M

on

ito

rin

g as

hig

hly

ben

e'ci

al a

gain

fo

r cr

itic

al

infr

ast

ruct

ure

(>

70 %

), b

ut

even

mo

re s

o f

or

hu

man

itar

ian

aid

(n

earl

y 80

%),

pro

bab

ly r

e%ec

tin

g th

e im

po

rtan

ce o

f u

p-

to-d

ate

risk

in

form

atio

n f

or

the

logi

stic

s o

f h

um

anit

aria

n

sup

po

rt (

Fig

ure

4.1

.17)

. $

e p

atte

rn o

f th

e n

on

-en

d-u

ser

app

rais

al w

as s

imil

ar, w

ith

a g

ener

al t

ren

d to

dis

tin

ctly

low

er

sco

res

(Fig

ure

4.1

.18)

.

Reg

ard

ing

stra

teg

ic b

ene"

ts,

it i

s n

ot

surp

risi

ng

that

en

d-

use

rs a

ckn

ow

led

ged

th

e h

igh

ben

e't

of

up

-to

-dat

e ri

sk i

n-

form

atio

n fo

r th

e su

ppor

t of

pre

ven

tive

str

ateg

ies

(>70

%),

for

the

e"ci

ency

of

plan

s an

d p

olic

ies

(>60

%),

an

d f

or

red

uci

ng

loss

es i

n p

ubl

ic e

con

omy

(>50

%)

(Fig

ure

4.1

.19)

. Aga

in, t

he

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs’

app

rais

al f

oll

ow

s a

sim

ilar

pat

tern

, w

ith

a

tren

d t

o lo

wer

sco

res

(Fig

ure

4.1

.20)

.

$e

end

-use

r re

sult

s fo

r th

e cr

itic

alit

y o

f sp

eci"

c p

rod

uct

feat

ure

s gi

ve e

mp

has

is t

o a

cces

s, a

ccu

racy

, ar

eal

cove

rage

,

them

atic

con

ten

t, a

nd

upd

ate

freq

uen

cy a

s h

igh

ly c

riti

cal f

ea-

ture

s (>

60 %

) (F

igu

re 4

.1.2

1), w

her

eas

the

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs fo

-

cus

on

acc

ura

cy,

upd

ate

freq

uen

cy,

acce

ss a

nd

are

al c

over

age

(>60

%)

(Fig

ure

4.1

.22)

. Di&

erin

g fr

om

th

e F

loo

d R

isk

Map

resu

lts,

bo

th g

rou

ps

saw

a h

igh

er c

riti

cali

ty o

f u

pdat

e fr

e-

quen

cy w

hic

h i

s to

be

exp

ecte

d f

or

a m

on

ito

rin

g sy

stem

.

Fig

ure

4.1

.18:

O

per

atio

nal

Ben

e'ts

of

Flo

od

Ris

k M

onit

orin

g Sy

stem

(n

on-

end

-use

rs)

Fig

ure

4.1

.20:

Str

ateg

ic B

ene'

ts o

f Flo

od R

isk

Mon

itori

ng

Syst

em (

non

-en

d-u

sers

)

Fig

ure

4.1

.17:

O

per

atio

nal

Ben

e'ts

of

Flo

od

Ris

k M

onit

orin

g Sy

stem

(en

d-

use

rs)

Fig

ure

4.1

.19:

Str

ateg

ic B

ene'

ts o

f Flo

od

Ris

k M

on

ito

rin

g Sy

stem

(en

d-u

sers

)

Fig

ure

4.1

.22:

Cri

tica

lity

of

spec

i'c

feat

ure

s o

f F

loo

d R

isk

Mo

nit

ori

ng

Sys-

tem

(n

on

-en

d-u

sers

)

Fig

ure

4.1

.21:

Cri

tica

lity

of

spec

i'c

feat

ure

s o

f F

loo

d R

isk

Mo

nit

ori

ng

Sys-

tem

(en

d-u

sers

)

Page 42: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

42

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 Inundation M

ap

Sim

ilar

to

th

e re

sult

s fo

r F

loo

d R

isk

Map

pin

g an

d M

on

i-

tori

ng,

en

d-u

sers

att

rib

ute

d a

hig

h o

per

atio

nal

ben

e"t

of

Inu

nd

atio

n M

aps

to c

riti

cal i

nfr

ast

ruct

ure

(n

earl

y 80

%)

and

hu

man

itar

ian

aid

(>

70 %

) (F

igu

re 4

.1.2

3).

$e

no

n-e

nd

-

use

rs c

on

'rm

ed t

his

eva

luat

ion

, ag

ain

wit

h a

tre

nd

to

lo

-

wer

sco

res

(Fig

ure

4.1

.24)

. In

co

ntr

ast

to t

he

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs’

eval

uat

ion

, th

e en

d-u

sers

gav

e m

ore

em

ph

asis

to

th

e b

ene'

t

for

secu

rity

(n

earl

y 60

%),

pro

bab

ly d

ue

to t

hei

r cl

ose

r in

-

volv

emen

t in

em

erge

ncy

sit

uat

ion

s.

In t

he

end

-use

r ap

pra

isal

of

stra

teg

ic b

ene"

ts,

Inu

nd

atio

n

Map

s sc

ore

d a

s h

igh

ly b

ene'

cial

esp

ecia

lly

for

supp

ort

of

prev

enti

ve s

trat

egie

s (s

ligh

tly

abo

ve 8

0 %

) an

d r

edu

cin

g lo

sses

in p

ubl

ic e

con

omy

(>70

%)

(Fig

ure

4.1

.25)

. It

can

be

assu

med

that

th

e h

igh

val

ue

attr

ibu

ted

to

In

un

dat

ion

Map

s fo

r th

e

supp

ort

of p

reve

nti

ve s

trat

egie

s, i

.e.

ou

tsid

e an

act

ual

em

er-

gen

cy s

itu

atio

n,

is d

ue

to t

he

info

rmat

ion

th

at t

hes

e m

aps

can

pro

vid

e al

so i

n t

he

po

st-e

mer

gen

cy p

has

e, e

.g.

for

the

vali

dat

ion

of

%o

od

sim

ula

tio

n m

od

els.

$is

ass

et w

as n

ot

con

'rm

ed b

y th

e n

on

-en

d-u

sers

wh

o g

ave

gen

eral

ly l

ow

er

app

rais

al r

esu

lts

(Fig

ure

4.1

.26)

.

Reg

ard

ing

the

crit

ical

ity

of

spec

i"c

pro

du

ct f

eatu

res,

th

e

maj

or

con

cern

of

end

-use

rs w

as a

bo

ut

them

atic

con

ten

t

(80

% f

or

hig

hly

cri

tica

l), f

oll

ow

ed b

y ac

cura

cy a

nd

are

al c

o-

vera

ge (

bo

th >

70 %

) (F

igu

re 4

.1.2

7).

$e

pri

ori

ty g

iven

to

them

atic

con

ten

t p

rob

ably

ref

ers

to t

he

com

ple

ten

ess

of

in-

form

atio

n s

ho

wn

in

th

e re

spec

tive

Tec

hn

ical

Pro

'le

s (T

able

4.1.

3) w

hic

h i

ncl

ud

es a

to

po

grap

hic

bas

e m

ap a

nd

in

dic

a-

tio

n o

f w

ater

dep

th.

Sim

ilar

to

th

e en

d-u

sers

, th

e n

on

-en

d-

use

rs (

Fig

ure

4.1

.28)

ass

esse

d t

imel

ines

s o

f th

e p

rod

uct

as

hig

hly

cri

tica

l (>

60 %

), w

hic

h is

to

be

exp

ecte

d f

or

use

in a

n

imm

edia

te e

mer

gen

cy s

itu

atio

n,

bu

t n

on

-en

d-u

sers

gav

e a

dis

tin

ctly

low

er a

sses

smen

t fo

r th

e cr

itic

alit

y o

f d

ata

form

at,

app

aren

tly

no

t ta

kin

g in

to a

cco

un

t th

e o

per

atio

nal

nee

ds

for

dat

a ex

chan

ge.

Fig

ure

4.1

.24:

Op

erat

ion

al B

ene'

ts o

f In

un

dat

ion

Map

(n

on-e

nd

-use

r ap

prai

sal)

Fig

ure

4.1

.26:

Str

ateg

ic B

ene'

ts o

f In

un

dat

ion

Map

( n

on-e

nd

-use

r ap

pra

isal

)

Fig

ure

4.1

.28:

Cri

tica

lity

of

spec

i'c

feat

ure

s o

f In

un

dat

ion

Map

(n

on

-en

d-

use

r ap

pra

isal

)

Fig

ure

4.1

.23:

Op

erat

ion

al B

ene'

ts o

f In

un

dat

ion

Map

(en

d-u

ser

app

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.1

.25:

Str

ateg

ic B

ene'

ts o

f In

un

dat

ion

Map

( e

nd

-use

r ap

pra

isal

)

Fig

ure

4.1

.27:

C

riti

cali

ty o

f sp

eci'

c fe

atu

res

of

Inu

nd

atio

n M

ap (

end

-use

r

app

rais

al)

Page 43: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

43

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4F

lood D

am

age A

ssessm

ent

Map

Wit

h r

egar

d t

o o

per

atio

nal

ben

e"ts

, en

d-u

sers

eva

luat

ed

the

pro

du

ct a

s h

igh

ly b

ene'

cial

mai

nly

fo

r cr

itic

al i

nfr

a-

stru

ctu

re (

>80

%),

an

d a

lso

fo

r h

um

anit

aria

n a

id (

>70

%)

and

hea

lth

car

e (n

earl

y 60

%)

(Fig

ure

4.1

.29)

. $

e re

lati

vely

hig

h s

core

fo

r h

ealt

h c

are

cou

ld r

e%ec

t th

e u

sefu

lnes

s o

f in

-

form

atio

n o

n t

he

dis

trib

uti

on

of

dam

age

for

mo

re e

#ci

ent

org

aniz

atio

n o

f m

edic

al a

ssis

tan

ce d

uri

ng

and

a>

er a

%o

o-

din

g em

erge

ncy

. $

ese

pri

ori

ties

wer

e co

n'

rmed

by

the

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs w

ith

gen

eral

ly lo

wer

sco

res

(Fig

ure

4.1

.30)

.

As

to t

he

stra

teg

ic b

ene"

ts o

f th

e p

rod

uct

, th

e en

d-u

sers

app

rais

al g

ave

hig

h b

ene'

t sc

ore

s es

pec

iall

y fo

r e"

cien

cy

of p

lan

s an

d p

olic

ies

and

red

uci

ng

loss

es i

n p

ubl

ic e

con

omy

(bo

th >

60 %

) (F

igu

re 4

.1.3

1). I

n a

dd

itio

n, t

he

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs

also

hig

hli

ghte

d t

he

supp

ort

of p

reve

nti

ve s

trat

egie

s (F

igu

re

4.1.

32),

pro

bab

ly a

ssu

min

g a

hig

her

po

ten

tial

of

dam

age

in-

form

atio

n f

rom

pre

vio

us

dis

aste

rs fo

r o

pti

miz

ing

pre

ven

tive

mea

sure

s fo

r th

e fu

ture

.

Are

al c

over

age

and

th

emat

ic c

onte

nt

wer

e id

enti

'ed

as

hig

h-

ly c

riti

cal

feat

ure

s b

y th

e en

d u

sers

(b

oth

>70

%)

(Fig

ure

4.1.

33),

fo

llo

wed

by

acce

ss,

spat

ial

reso

luti

on,

tim

elin

ess

and

accu

racy

(>

60 %

). H

igh

cri

tica

lity

of

them

atic

con

ten

t sc

ore

d

even

hig

her

in t

he

app

rais

al b

y n

on

-en

d-u

sers

(n

earl

y 80

%)

(Fig

ure

4.1

.34)

, w

ho

are

per

hap

s ev

en m

ore

aw

are

of

the

met

ho

dic

al p

rob

lem

s in

der

ivin

g d

amag

e in

form

atio

n f

rom

avai

lab

le s

pat

ial d

ata

in a

n e

mer

gen

cy s

itu

atio

n.

Fig

ure

4.1

.30:

Op

erat

ion

al B

ene'

ts o

f F

loo

d D

amag

e A

sses

smen

t M

ap

(no

n-e

nd

-use

rs)

Figu

re 4

.1.3

2: S

trat

egic

Ben

e'ts

of F

lood

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent M

ap (n

on-e

nd-

user

s)

Fig

ure

4.1

.34:

C

riti

cali

ty o

f sp

eci'

c fe

atu

res

of

Flo

od

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

(n

on

-en

d-u

sers

)

Fig

ure

4.1

.29:

O

per

atio

nal

Ben

e'ts

of

Flo

od

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

(en

d-u

sers

)

Fig

ure

4.1

.31:

Str

ateg

ic B

ene'

ts o

f Flo

od

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent M

ap (

end

-use

rs)

Fig

ure

4.1

.33:

Cri

tica

lity

of

spec

i'c

feat

ure

s o

f F

loo

d D

amag

e A

sses

smen

t

Map

(en

d-u

sers

)

Page 44: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

44

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 4.2

E

art

hq

uake r

isk a

naly

sis

an

d

dam

ag

e a

ssessm

en

t

Ale

ssan

dro

 Dem

arch

i an

d A

nn

a F

acel

lo

Sei

smic

ph

eno

men

a d

o n

ot

alw

ays

trig

ger

dis

aste

rs;

for

ex-

amp

le a

po

wer

ful

eart

hq

uak

e in

an

un

po

pu

late

d a

rea

is n

ot

a d

isas

ter,

wh

ile

a w

eak

ear

thq

uak

e w

hic

h h

its

an u

rban

are

a

wit

h b

uil

din

gs n

ot

con

stru

cted

to

wit

hst

and

ear

thq

uak

es,

can

cau

se g

reat

mis

ery

(Sch

wie

ger

et a

l., 2

006)

.

$e

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Fed

eral

Em

erge

ncy

Man

agem

ent

Age

ncy

(FE

MA

) d

e'n

es s

eism

ic r

isk

as

“th

e h

arm

or

loss

es t

hat

are

lik

ely

to r

esu

lt f

rom

exp

osu

re t

o s

eism

ic h

azar

ds.

$ey

are

usu

ally

mea

sure

d i

n t

erm

s o

f ex

pec

ted

cas

ual

ties

(fa

tali

ties

and

in

juri

es),

dir

ect

eco

no

mic

lo

sses

(re

pai

r an

d r

epla

ce-

men

t co

sts)

, an

d i

nd

irec

t ec

on

om

ic lo

sses

(in

com

e lo

st d

ur-

ing

do

wn

tim

e re

sult

ing

fro

m d

amag

e to

pri

vate

pro

per

ty o

r

pu

bli

c in

fras

tru

ctu

re)”

. A

cco

rdin

g to

Rei

ter

(199

1),

a se

is-

mic

haz

ard

is

the

pro

bab

le o

r p

oss

ible

occ

urr

ence

of

eart

h-

qu

ake-

rela

ted

nat

ura

l p

hen

om

ena

such

as

gro

un

d-s

hak

ing,

fau

lt r

up

ture

or

soil

liq

uef

acti

on

(F

igu

re 4

.2.1

), w

hil

e ac

-

cord

ing

to U

NIS

DR

(20

09a)

, vu

lner

abil

ity

is u

nd

erst

oo

d a

s

“th

e ch

arac

teri

stic

s an

d c

ircu

mst

ance

s o

f a

com

mu

nit

y, s

ys-

tem

or

asse

t th

at m

ake

it s

usc

epti

ble

to

th

e d

amag

ing

e&ec

ts

of

a h

azar

d”.

Mo

reo

ver,

as

rep

ort

ed i

n t

he

EN

SUR

E P

roje

ct

(201

0a),

“th

e vu

lner

abil

ity

of

a sy

stem

rel

ates

to

its

cap

acit

y

to b

e h

arm

ed b

y a

thre

at. V

uln

erab

ilit

y ca

n b

e se

en a

s an

in-

tern

al p

rop

erty

of

a sy

stem

”. In

ad

dit

ion

, vu

lner

abil

ity

cou

ld

be

un

der

sto

od

as

a “…

wh

ole

wh

ich

has

sev

eral

fac

ets.

Eac

h

face

t is

in

trin

sica

lly

rela

ted

to

eve

ry o

ther

fac

et”

(EN

SUR

E

Pro

ject

, 201

0b).

Am

on

g th

e m

ost

im

po

rtan

t co

mp

on

ents

of

vuln

erab

ilit

y ar

e p

hys

ical

vu

lner

abil

ity,

so

cio

-dem

ogr

aph

ic

vuln

erab

ilit

y, e

con

om

ic v

uln

erab

ilit

y an

d t

he

po

liti

cal/

inst

i-

tuti

on

al/c

ult

ura

l vu

lner

abil

ity.

Geo

info

rmat

ion

to

ols

are

mo

stly

em

plo

yed

in

ph

ysic

al a

s-

pec

ts o

f vu

lner

abil

ity,

wh

ich

as

Ku

nd

ak (

2010

) st

ates

, is

the

susc

epti

bil

ity

of

all k

ind

s o

f h

um

an-m

ade

stru

ctu

res

such

as

bu

ild

ings

, ro

ads,

in

fras

tru

ctu

res,

an

d w

hic

h c

an b

e li

sted

in

mo

re d

etai

l in

su

b-c

ateg

ori

es s

uch

as:

Urb

an fa

bric

vu

lner

abil

ity:

sei

smic

ris

k in

an

urb

an a

rea

is c

lose

ly r

elat

ed t

o t

he

stru

ctu

re,

mat

eria

l an

d d

imen

-

sio

ns

of

bu

ild

ings

an

d t

hei

r sp

atia

l d

istr

ibu

tio

n;

thu

s

a b

uil

din

g in

ven

tory

is

the

pri

mar

y to

ol

to a

sses

s th

is

com

po

nen

t o

f vu

lner

abil

ity.

A b

uil

din

g in

ven

tory

can

be

ob

tain

ed b

y a

'el

d s

urv

ey, b

ut

a la

rge

amo

un

t o

f ti

me

and

e&

ort

is

req

uir

ed w

her

eas

sate

llit

e re

mo

te s

ensi

ng,

wh

ich

can

eas

ily

mo

nit

or

a la

rge

area

, can

pro

vid

e e&

ec-

tive

in

form

atio

n o

n t

he

urb

an f

abri

c (Y

amaz

aki

et a

l.,

2003

).

Infr

ast

ruct

ure

vu

lner

abil

ity

incl

ud

es a

ll c

ruci

al i

nfr

a-

stru

ctu

res

such

as

gas

stat

ion

s, p

ow

er p

lan

ts,

fact

ori

es,

uti

lity

life

lin

es (

tho

se s

yste

ms

com

mo

nly

use

d t

o t

ran

s-

po

rt w

ater

, oil

, nat

ura

l gas

an

d o

ther

mat

eria

l). D

amag

e

to s

om

e o

f th

ese

inst

alla

tio

ns

may

als

o l

ead

to

Nat

u-

ral

Ha

zard

Tri

gger

ing

Tec

hn

olog

ical

Dis

ast

ers

(Nat

ech

)

wh

ich

occ

ur

in r

elat

ion

to

nat

ura

l haz

ard

s an

d d

isas

ters

and

hav

e in

th

e p

ast

resu

lted

in t

he

rele

ase

of

haz

ard

ou

s

sub

stan

ces

lead

ing

to f

atal

itie

s, i

nju

ries

, en

viro

nm

en-

tal

po

llu

tio

n a

nd

eco

no

mic

lo

sses

($

eile

n-W

illi

ge e

t

al.,

2011

). I

n a

dd

itio

n, o

ne

of

the

pri

nci

pal

pro

ble

ms

of

mo

st N

atec

h a

ccid

ents

is

the

sim

ult

aneo

us

occ

urr

ence

of

a n

atu

ral

dis

aste

r an

d a

tec

hn

olo

gica

l ac

cid

ent,

bo

th

of

wh

ich

req

uir

e si

mu

ltan

eou

s re

spo

nse

e&

ort

s in

a

situ

atio

n i

n w

hic

h l

ifel

ines

nee

ded

fo

r d

isas

ter

mit

iga-

tio

n a

re l

ikel

y to

be

un

avai

lab

le (

$ei

len

-Wil

lige

et

al.,

2011

).

Fu

nct

ion

al v

uln

erab

ilit

y ad

dre

sses

th

e vu

lner

abil

ity

of

stra

tegi

c u

rban

fu

nct

ion

s, s

uch

as

ho

spit

als,

're

sta

-

tio

ns,

po

lice

sta

tio

ns,

wh

ich

may

be

loca

ted

in

in

ap-

pro

pri

ate

area

s, p

ron

e to

ear

thq

uak

e h

azar

d,

and

th

us

can

no

t o

per

ate

app

rop

riat

ely

in t

he

case

of

a d

isas

ter.

Fig

ure

4.2

.1:

Rel

atio

ns

bet

wee

n e

arth

qu

akes

an

d p

oss

ible

trig

gere

d h

azar

ds

(Tu

rk a

nd

Gu

mu

say,

200

8)

In t

he

asse

ssm

ent

of

seis

mic

ris

k, o

ne

of

the

'rs

t st

eps

is t

he

real

izat

ion

of a

n e

arth

qu

ake

haz

ard

s zo

nat

ion

, wh

ich

iden

ti-

'es

sit

es m

ore

su

scep

tib

le t

o e

arth

qu

ake

dam

age

and

rel

ated

seco

nd

ary

e&ec

ts d

ue

to l

oca

l si

te c

on

dit

ion

s ($

eile

n-W

il-

lige

et

al.,

2011

). I

n p

arti

cula

r, G

IS i

nte

grat

ed w

ith

rem

ote

sen

sin

g d

ata

and

geo

dat

a an

alys

is c

an b

e u

sed

to

vis

ual

ize

fact

ors

th

at a

re r

elat

ed t

o t

he

occ

urr

ence

of

hig

her

ear

th-

qu

ake

sho

ck a

nd

/or

eart

hq

uak

e in

du

ced

sec

on

dar

y e&

ects

($ei

len

-Wil

lige

at

al.,

2011

). M

ore

ove

r, G

ISs

pla

y a

fun

da-

men

tal r

ole

in

th

e h

azar

d e

valu

atio

n p

roce

ss i

nas

mu

ch t

hey

Page 45: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

45

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4al

low

th

e re

aliz

atio

n o

f re

fere

nce

d g

eo-d

atab

ases

co

nta

in-

ing

map

s, i

nfo

rmat

ion

an

d s

pat

ial

dat

a la

yers

der

ived

fro

m

sate

llit

e d

ata

and

var

iou

s o

ther

so

urc

es (

e.g.

to

po

grap

hic

,

soil

, ge

olo

gic,

hyd

roge

olo

gic

and

lan

d u

se m

aps)

($

eile

n-

Wil

lige

et

al.,

2011

).

In g

ener

al, c

om

mo

n d

atas

ets

use

d i

n s

eism

ic h

azar

d a

sses

s-

men

t ar

e:

Seis

mic

ha

zard

zon

atio

n:

as s

tate

d a

bo

ve,

the

seis

mic

haz

ard

co

uld

be

asse

ssed

by

eval

uat

ing

po

ssib

le e

arth

-

qu

ake-

rela

ted

n

atu

ral

ph

eno

men

a su

ch

as

gro

un

d-

shak

ing,

fau

lt r

up

ture

, an

d s

oil

liq

uef

acti

on

. $

e m

ost

rele

van

t o

f th

ese

is g

rou

nd

-sh

akin

g w

hic

h p

red

om

i-

nan

tly

dep

end

s o

n f

acto

rs s

uch

as

the

mag

nit

ud

e o

f

the

eart

hq

uak

e, p

rop

erti

es o

f th

e fa

ult

pla

ne,

an

d t

he

dis

tan

ce b

etw

een

th

e fa

ult

an

d l

oca

l ge

olo

gic

stru

c-

ture

s ($

eile

n-W

illi

ge e

t al

., 20

11).

Gro

un

d-s

hak

ing

is

mea

sure

d u

sin

g th

e P

eak

Gro

un

d A

ccel

erat

ion

(P

GA

),

wh

ich

in

dic

ates

th

e m

agn

itu

de

of

the

shak

ing

a>er

an

eart

hq

uak

e, o

r th

e Sp

ectr

al A

ccel

erat

ion

(SA

), w

hic

h

ind

icat

es t

he

max

imu

m a

ccel

erat

ion

on

an

ob

ject

du

r-

ing

an e

arth

qu

ake.

Mor

phol

ogic

map

: th

e st

eep

est

slo

pes

, ar

eas

wit

h t

he

hig

hes

t cu

rvat

ure

an

d d

epre

ssio

ns

can

be

iden

ti'

ed b

y

par

amet

eriz

ing

Dig

ital

Ele

vati

on

Mo

del

s (D

EM

) o

f th

e

loca

tio

n,

wh

ich

may

be

com

bin

ed w

ith

lit

ho

logi

c an

d

seis

om

ote

cto

nic

in

form

atio

n

in

an

exh

aust

ive

refe

r-

ence

d d

atab

ase

($ei

len

-Wil

lige

et

al.,

2011

).

Fu

rth

erm

ore

, rem

ote

sen

sin

g to

ols

can

su

pp

ort

geo

logi

sts

in

det

ecti

ng

stre

ss i

n t

he

rock

s an

d h

ence

fo

reca

stin

g ar

eas

that

mig

ht

be

sub

ject

to

an

ear

thq

uak

e. I

nte

rfer

om

etri

c Sy

nth

etic

Ap

ertu

re R

adar

(In

SAR

) te

chn

iqu

es b

ased

on

sat

elli

te r

adar

dat

a ca

n m

on

ito

r ev

en v

ery

smal

l ch

ange

s in

th

e te

rrai

n s

ur-

face

th

at m

igh

t in

dic

ate

pre

ssu

re i

n t

he

geo

logi

cal s

tru

ctu

res.

Oth

er s

enso

rs, s

uch

as

hyp

er-s

pec

tral

sp

ace-

bas

ed o

r ai

rbo

rne

scan

ner

s, c

an a

ssis

t to

det

ect

ano

mal

ies

in t

he

envi

ron

men

t,

e.g.

th

erm

al e

mis

sio

ns,

gas

or

oth

er i

nd

icat

ors

th

at p

oin

t to

on

goin

g u

nd

ergr

ou

nd

act

ivit

y (A

ltan

an

d K

emp

er, 2

008)

.

Bes

ides

haz

ard

ass

essm

ent,

geo

info

rmat

ion

to

ols

als

o h

ave

a fu

nd

amen

tal

role

in

th

e as

sess

men

t o

f p

hys

ical

an

d f

un

c-

tio

nal

vu

lner

abil

ity.

Co

mm

on

dat

aset

s u

sed

in

th

e ev

alu

a-

tio

n p

roce

ss a

re:

Mac

rosc

opic

cla

ssi+

cati

on: m

ult

i-sp

ectr

al c

har

acte

rist

ics

of

sate

llit

e im

ages

rev

eal

di&

eren

t re

%ec

tan

ces

of

mat

e-

rial

s o

n t

he

eart

h’s

surf

ace

(Yam

azak

i et

al.,

200

3).

Fo

r

inst

ance

, u

rban

are

as i

n M

etro

Man

ila

wer

e cl

assi

'ed

into

six

lan

d c

ove

r cl

asse

s (c

on

gest

ed,

no

n-c

on

gest

ed,

vege

tati

on

, bar

e gr

ou

nd

, wat

er, a

nd

clo

ud

co

ver)

bas

ed

on

th

e co

mm

on

ly u

sed

No

rmal

ized

Di&

eren

tial

Veg

eta-

tio

n I

nd

ex (

ND

VI)

acq

uir

ed f

rom

Lan

dsa

t sa

tell

ite

dat

a

wit

h g

rou

nd

res

olu

tio

ns

of

30 m

(Y

amaz

aki

et a

l., 2

003;

Yam

azak

i an

d M

atsu

ok

a, 2

006;

see

Fig

ure

4.2

.2).

Mo

re-

ove

r, u

sin

g a

tim

e se

ries

of

sate

llit

e im

ages

, th

e u

rban

area

s ca

n b

e fu

rth

er c

lass

i'ed

acc

ord

ing

to t

he

age

of

bu

ild

ings

(F

igu

re 4

.2.3

), a

nd

th

us

thei

r co

mp

lian

ce w

ith

the

seis

mic

bu

ild

ing

cod

es i

n f

orc

e at

th

e ti

me

of

thei

r

con

stru

ctio

n (

Yam

azak

i an

d M

atsu

ok

a, 2

006)

.

Mic

rosc

opic

urb

an c

lass

i+ca

tion

: bes

ides

a g

ener

al l

and

-

cove

r cl

assi

'ca

tio

n,

hig

h r

eso

luti

on

sat

elli

te i

mag

es a

l-

low

mo

re d

etai

led

an

alys

is. F

or

inst

ance

, fro

m I

KO

NO

S

II s

atel

lite

acq

uis

itio

ns

(gro

un

d r

eso

luti

on

1m

) th

e b

uil

t

envi

ron

men

t in

Old

Man

ila

was

cla

ssi'

ed u

sin

g tw

o in

-

dex

es:

ND

VI

and

th

e u

nif

orm

ity

of

imag

e te

xtu

re i

n a

loca

l ar

ea (

Yam

azak

i et

al.,

200

3). S

pec

i'c

clas

si'

cati

on

resu

lts

are

sho

wn

in

Fig

ure

4.2

.4.

Loc

atio

n o

f vu

lner

able

obj

ects

: ac

cord

ing

to (

$ei

len

-

Wil

lige

et

al.,

2011

), g

eoin

form

atio

n t

oo

ls a

lso

all

ow

the

inte

grat

ion

of

dis

aste

r re

spo

nse

in

stit

uti

on

s su

ch a

s

're

sta

tio

ns,

po

lice

sta

tio

ns,

ho

spit

als

and

dis

aste

r m

an-

agem

ent

cen

tres

. In

par

ticu

lar,

a s

trat

egic

dat

abas

e co

n-

Fig

ure

4.2

.2: E

arth

su

rfac

e cl

assi

'ca

tio

n fo

r M

etro

Man

ila

esti

mat

ed f

rom

Lan

dsa

t im

ages

in 1

972,

199

2 an

d 2

000

(Yam

azak

i

and

Mat

suo

ka,

200

6)

Page 46: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

46

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 tain

ing

info

rmat

ion

ab

ou

t th

e ca

pac

itie

s o

f h

osp

ital

s,

're

sta

tio

ns

and

po

lice

sta

tio

ns

(e.g

. in

ter

ms

of

sta&

,

bed

s, e

qu

ipm

ent,

etc

.),

may

be

incl

ud

ed i

n t

he

pro

cess

of

risk

ass

essm

ent

($ei

len

-Wil

lige

et

al.,

2011

).

Loc

atio

n o

f cr

itic

al i

nfr

ast

ruct

ure

: a

dat

aset

co

nta

in-

ing

info

rmat

ion

on

in

du

stri

al b

uil

din

gs,

gas

stat

ion

s,

infr

astr

uct

ure

etc

. m

ay b

e in

clu

ded

in

th

e p

roce

ss o

f

risk

ass

essm

ent

thro

ugh

its

in

tegr

atio

n i

n t

he

spec

i'c

Geo

info

rmat

ion

Sys

tem

. A

no

ther

im

po

rtan

t as

pec

t fo

r

emer

gen

cy p

rep

ared

nes

s an

d d

amag

e lo

ss e

stim

atio

n

is t

he

actu

al i

nve

nto

ry o

f la

nd

use

an

d i

nfr

astr

uct

ure

of

ind

ust

rial

fac

ilit

ies,

set

tlem

ents

an

d c

itie

s, i

ncl

ud

ing

age,

str

uct

ure

, typ

e an

d f

un

ctio

ns

of b

uil

din

gs (

$ei

len

-

Wil

lige

et

al.,

2011

).

All

th

ese

dat

aset

s u

sed

in

th

e h

azar

d a

nd

vu

lner

abil

ity

as-

sess

men

t ar

e in

tegr

ated

in

th

e T

ech

nic

al P

ro'

le f

or

an U

r-

ban

Cla

ssi'

cati

on

fo

r E

arth

qu

ake

Ris

k A

nal

ysis

sh

ow

n i

n

Tab

le 4

.2.1

.

Fig

ure

4.2

.4: R

esu

lt o

f m

icro

sco

pic

cla

ssi'

cati

on

in O

ld M

a-

nil

a u

sin

g p

an-s

har

pen

ed I

KO

NO

S II

im

age.

Ora

nge

an

d

yell

ow

: den

se a

reas

wit

h l

ow

-ris

e b

uil

din

gs, l

igh

t b

lue:

mid

-

hei

ght

bu

ild

ings

(m

ain

ly c

om

mer

cial

are

as);

blu

e: a

reas

wit

h

larg

e b

uil

din

gs a

nd

oth

ers;

gre

en:

vege

tati

on

are

as (

sou

rce:

Yam

azak

i et

al.,

200

3)

Fig

ure

4.2

.3: D

istr

ibu

tio

n o

f es

tim

ated

bu

ild

ing

ages

for

Me-

tro

Man

ila

by

tim

e-se

ries

an

alys

is (

sou

rce:

Yam

azak

i an

d

Mat

suo

ka,

200

6)

Page 47: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

47

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4T

opic

Reg

ion

al v

uln

erab

ilit

y to

eco

no

mic

, en

viro

nm

enta

l, o

r so

cial

im

pac

ts o

f d

rou

ght

"em

ati

c co

nte

nt

8 d

rou

ght

vuln

erab

ilit

y cl

asse

s b

ased

on

soci

o-e

con

om

ic d

ata

(su

ch a

s gr

oss

do

mes

tic

pro

du

ct p

er c

apit

a, d

epen

den

ce o

n a

gric

ult

ure

fo

r

inco

me

and

em

plo

ymen

t, t

ota

l an

d r

ura

l po

pu

lati

on

) an

d

bio

ph

ysic

al d

ata

(su

ch a

s la

nd

co

ver,

an

nu

al p

reci

pit

atio

n a

nd

riv

er d

isch

arge

, so

il d

epth

, so

il

deg

rad

atio

n)

Acc

ess

Up

on

reg

istr

atio

n v

ia i

nte

rnet

Sca

leN

ot

app

lica

ble

Acc

ura

cyN

ot

app

lica

ble

Are

al

cove

rage

Glo

bal

/Reg

ion

al

Spa

tia

l re

solu

tion

0.5°

x 0

.5°

(ave

rage

) fo

r gl

ob

al r

aste

r d

atas

ets

use

d f

or

dro

ugh

t vu

lner

abil

ity

ind

icat

ors

nat

ion

al a

ggre

gati

on

leve

l fo

r so

cio

eco

no

mic

dat

a

Tim

elin

ess

No

t re

leva

nt

for

vuln

erab

ilit

y as

sess

men

t

Up

da

te f

req

uen

cy2

- 10

yea

rs

Da

ta f

orm

at

Ras

ter

Map

s an

d v

ecto

r d

atas

ets

(OG

C s

tan

dar

d)

App

rais

al re

sults

Op

erat

ion

al b

ene"

ts o

f an

Urb

an C

lass

i'ca

tio

n w

ere

gen

-

eral

ly a

sses

sed

as

hig

h b

y m

ore

th

an 5

5 %

of

the

end

-use

rs

(Fig

ure

4.2

.5),

wit

h a

sco

re o

f 90

% f

or

the

man

agem

ent

of

crit

ical

in

fra

stru

ctu

re,

and

th

e o

ther

10

% w

ith

a m

ediu

m

ben

e't

sco

re. I

nd

eed

, dam

age

to c

riti

cal

infr

astr

uct

ure

may

lead

to

oth

er a

ccid

ents

(so

-cal

led

Nat

ech

acc

iden

ts)

in t

he

a>er

mat

h o

f se

ism

ic w

aves

. $

eref

ore

, k

no

win

g th

eir

loca

-

tio

n a

nd

th

e co

mp

osi

tio

n o

f th

e su

rro

un

din

g u

rban

en

vi-

ron

men

t ar

e fu

nd

amen

tal

to t

he

asse

ssm

ent

of

risk

an

d i

ts

red

uct

ion

. A

lso

fo

r h

um

anit

aria

n a

id a

nd

sec

uri

ty,

sect

ors

mo

st i

nvo

lved

in

cas

e o

f a

dis

aste

r, t

he

pro

du

ct w

as e

valu

-

ated

as

hig

hly

ben

e'ci

al b

y >

70 %

an

d >

60 %

o

f en

d-u

sers

and

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs, r

esp

ecti

vely

.

Co

mp

arin

g F

igu

res

4.2.

5 an

d 4

.2.6

, it

is n

oti

ceab

le t

hat

no

n-

end

-use

rs r

ated

th

e o

per

atio

nal

ben

e'ts

as

less

th

an e

nd

-us-

ers.

$is

is p

arti

cula

rly

tru

e fo

r h

ealt

h c

are.

Ben

e'ts

fo

r cr

iti-

cal i

nfr

ast

ruct

ure

, ho

wev

er w

ere

also

rat

ed a

s h

igh

by

nea

rly

90 %

of

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs, p

rob

ably

du

e to

th

e sa

me

reas

on

s as

stat

ed a

bo

ve.

Ap

par

entl

y, e

nd

-use

rs a

nd

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs a

lik

e as

crib

e a

hig

h b

ene'

t o

f ri

sk a

nal

ysis

in

ad

van

ce o

f an

act

ual

ear

th-

qu

ake

dis

aste

r in

an

urb

an e

nvi

ron

men

t to

th

e m

ain

ten

ance

of c

riti

cal i

nfr

ast

ruct

ure

in t

he

cou

rse

of e

mer

gen

cy r

esp

on

se

acti

viti

es.

En

d-u

sers

co

nsi

der

ed t

he

stra

teg

ic b

ene"

ts a

s h

igh

ly s

ig-

ni'

can

t (F

igu

re 4

.2.7

), i

n p

arti

cula

r fo

r e"

cien

cy o

f pl

ans

and

pol

icie

s an

d s

upp

ort

of p

reve

nti

ve s

trat

egie

s (b

oth

wit

h

>70

%),

foll

ow

ed b

y re

du

cin

g lo

sses

in p

ubl

ic e

con

omy

(nea

rly

Tab

le 4

.2.1

: Tec

hn

ical

Pro

'le

fo

r U

rban

Cla

ssi'

cati

on

fo

r E

arth

qu

ake

Ris

k A

nal

ysis

Page 48: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

48

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 70 %

). S

upp

ort

of s

upe

rreg

ion

al c

onsi

sten

cy a

nd

coo

pera

tion

regi

ster

ed w

ith

ju

st a

bo

ve 5

0 %

: ea

rth

qu

akes

are

ph

eno

m-

ena

that

gen

eral

ly a

}ic

t re

stri

cted

are

as a

nd

co

nse

qu

entl

y

an U

rban

Cla

ssi'

cati

on

may

no

t b

e b

ene'

cial

fo

r la

rge

scal

e

acti

viti

es.

$e

low

er v

alu

e fo

r h

igh

ben

e't

to p

ubl

ic a

ccep

-

tan

ce o

f pla

ns

and

pol

icie

s (<

50 %

) is

pro

bab

ly d

ue

to t

he

fact

that

an

urb

an c

lass

i'ca

tio

n r

epre

sen

ts t

he

bas

e o

n w

hic

h t

o

dev

elo

p a

pp

rop

riat

e in

form

atio

n p

rod

uct

s fo

r th

e p

ub

lic.

$er

efo

re,

this

tec

hn

ical

pro

du

ct a

s su

ch m

ay n

ot

imp

rove

pu

bli

c aw

aren

ess

of

risk

s an

d v

uln

erab

ilit

ies

wit

ho

ut

ded

i-

cate

d v

isu

aliz

atio

n p

rod

uct

s fo

r p

ub

lic

dis

sem

inat

ion

.

$e

vast

maj

ori

ty o

f th

e n

on

-en

d-u

sers

gen

eral

ly c

on

'rm

ed

the

stra

tegi

c b

ene'

ts a

pp

rais

al b

y en

d-u

sers

, w

ith

lo

wer

hig

h b

ene'

t sc

ore

s ex

cep

t fo

r su

pp

ort

of

pre

ven

tive

str

at-

egie

s (>

80 %

) an

d p

ub

lic

acce

pta

nce

of

pla

ns

and

po

lici

es

(>60

%)

(Fig

ure

4.2

.8).

Wh

erea

s th

e h

igh

val

ue

of

an u

rban

dat

abas

e fo

r ea

rth

qu

ake

risk

an

alys

is

seem

s se

lf-e

vid

ent

wit

h r

egar

d t

o p

reve

nti

on

su

pp

ort

, th

e n

on

-en

d-u

sers

’ co

m-

par

ativ

ely

hig

h b

ene'

t sc

ore

fo

r p

ub

lic

acce

pta

nce

of

pla

ns

and

po

lici

es m

ay r

e%ec

t a

less

cri

tica

l vi

ew o

n t

he

nee

ds

for

ded

icat

ed p

ub

lic

awar

enes

s ra

isin

g.

Reg

ard

ing

the

crit

ical

ity

of

spec

i"c

pro

du

ct f

eatu

res

(Fig

-

ure

4.2

.9),

acc

ess

(wh

ich

is

up

on

reg

istr

atio

n v

ia i

nte

rnet

)

is r

ank

ed a

s h

igh

ly c

riti

cal

by

mo

re t

han

60

% o

f en

d-u

s-

ers,

fo

llo

wed

by

spat

ial

reso

luti

on,

area

l co

vera

ge,

accu

racy

(wh

ich

ref

ers

to g

eom

etri

c ac

cura

cy)

and

th

emat

ic c

onte

nt

wit

h a

bo

ut

5 %

lo

wer

sco

re.

By

con

tras

t, s

cale

an

d d

ata

for

-

mat

wer

e co

nsi

der

ed a

s le

ss c

riti

cal.

Dat

a f

orm

at a

nd

upd

ate

freq

uen

cy w

ere

eval

uat

ed a

s o

f ve

ry

low

cri

tica

lity

by

the

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs, w

ith

on

ly a

rou

nd

20

%

of

resp

on

den

ts r

atin

g th

em a

s h

igh

ly c

riti

cal (

Fig

ure

4.2

.10)

.

&em

atic

con

ten

t an

d a

cces

s w

ere

asse

ssed

by

end

-use

rs a

s

the

mo

st c

riti

cal

feat

ure

s. N

ever

thel

ess,

so

me

resp

on

den

ts

com

men

ted

th

at m

ore

sp

eci'

c vu

lner

abil

ity

par

amet

ers

of

bu

ilt-

up

are

as (

e.g.

mat

eria

ls u

sed

, n

um

ber

of

%o

ors

, an

d

tech

nic

al c

od

e va

lues

on

ear

thq

uak

e re

sist

ance

) sh

ou

ld a

lso

be

incl

ud

ed. A

ccu

racy

an

d a

real

cov

erag

e, w

hic

h a

re i

mp

or-

tan

t is

sues

fo

r th

emat

ic m

aps,

wer

e co

nsi

der

ed b

y th

e m

a-

jori

ty o

f re

spo

nd

ents

as

hig

hly

cri

tica

l, w

hil

e th

e re

spo

nse

was

les

s si

gni'

can

t fo

r sp

atia

l re

solu

tion

an

d s

cale

. In

par

-

ticu

lar,

so

me

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs a

lso

co

mm

ente

d t

hat

a s

pat

ial

reso

luti

on

of

5 m

is n

ot

su#

cien

t fo

r ev

acu

atio

n r

ou

tin

g an

d

for

iden

tify

ing

acce

ss t

o o

pen

sp

ace.

Page 49: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

49

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4F

igu

re 4

.2.6

: O

per

atio

nal

Ben

e'ts

of

Urb

an C

lass

i'ca

tio

n

for

Ear

thq

uak

e R

isk

An

alys

is (

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs a

pp

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.2

.9: C

riti

cali

ty o

f sp

eci'

c fe

atu

res

of

Urb

an C

lass

i-

'ca

tio

n f

or

Ear

thq

uak

e R

isk

An

alys

is (

end

-use

rs a

pp

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.2

.5:

Op

erat

ion

al B

ene'

ts o

f U

rban

Cla

ssi'

cati

on

for

Ear

thq

uak

e R

isk

An

alys

is (

end

-use

rs a

pp

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.2

.8:

Stra

tegi

c B

ene'

ts o

f U

rban

Cla

ssi'

cati

on

fo

r

Ear

thq

uak

e R

isk

An

alys

is (

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs a

pp

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.2

.7:

Stra

tegi

c B

ene'

ts o

f U

rban

Cla

ssi'

cati

on

fo

r

Ear

thq

uak

e R

isk

An

alys

is (

end

-use

rs a

pp

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.2

.10:

Cri

tica

lity

of

spec

i'c

feat

ure

s o

f U

rban

Cla

s-

si'

cati

on

fo

r E

arth

qu

ake

Ris

k A

nal

ysis

(n

on

-en

d-u

sers

ap

-

pra

isal

)

Page 50: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

50

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 Dam

age

asse

ssm

ent i

nvo

lves

det

erm

inin

g th

e ex

ten

t of d

am-

age

to l

ife,

pro

per

ty a

nd

th

e en

viro

nm

ent

resu

ltin

g fr

om

a

dis

aste

r. E

arth

qu

akes

can

cau

se s

ever

e d

amag

e to

bu

ild

ings

and

in

fras

tru

ctu

re a

nd

mas

sive

lo

ss o

f h

um

an l

ife.

Fo

r th

is

reas

on

, it

is

imp

ort

ant

for

emer

gen

cy m

anag

emen

t an

d r

e-

cove

ry w

ork

to

cap

ture

th

e d

amag

e d

istr

ibu

tio

n im

med

iate

-

ly a

>er

th

e d

isas

ter

even

t in

ord

er t

o p

rio

riti

ze r

elie

f e&

ort

s.

In r

ecen

t ye

ars,

rem

ote

sen

sin

g te

chn

olo

gy

has

in

crea

sin

gly

bee

n r

eco

gniz

ed a

s a

valu

able

po

st-e

arth

qu

ake

dam

age

as-

sess

men

t to

ol.

Rec

ent

stu

die

s p

erfo

rmed

by

rese

arch

tea

ms

in t

he

Un

ited

Sta

tes,

Jap

an a

nd

Eu

rop

e h

ave

dem

on

stra

ted

that

bu

ild

ing

dam

age

sust

ain

ed i

n u

rban

en

viro

nm

ents

can

be

read

ily

eval

uat

ed t

hro

ugh

th

e an

alys

is o

f o

pti

cal a

nd

Syn

-

thet

ic A

per

ture

Rad

ar (

SAR

) im

ager

y (A

dam

s et

al.,

200

4).

A D

amag

e A

sses

smen

t M

ap g

ener

ated

in

th

is w

ay w

ill

dis

-

pla

y an

d h

igh

ligh

t th

e d

amag

e to

bu

ild

ings

an

d i

nfr

astr

uc-

ture

an

d a

llo

w t

he

de'

nit

ion

of

road

acc

essi

bil

ity.

On

e o

f

the

'rs

t st

eps

is t

he

iden

ti'

cati

on

of

the

spat

ial

dis

trib

uti

on

of

stru

ctu

ral

dam

age

by

com

par

iso

n w

ith

th

e si

tuat

ion

be-

fore

th

e ev

ent

(Fig

ure

4.2

.11)

. U

sual

ly,

the

dam

age

asse

ss-

men

t p

roce

ss d

ivid

es t

he

a&ec

ted

are

a in

to d

i&er

ent

clas

ses

dep

end

ing

up

on

th

e n

atu

re a

nd

in

ten

sity

of

dam

age

(sli

ght,

hea

vy,

coll

apse

d).

$

ere

are

seve

ral

met

ho

ds

avai

lab

le f

or

iden

tify

ing

and

eva

luat

ing

dam

aged

are

as,

the

mo

st f

re-

qu

entl

y u

sed

are

as

foll

ow

s.

A c

om

mo

n a

pp

roac

h i

s b

ased

on

hig

h s

pat

ial

reso

luti

on

op

tica

l sa

tell

ite

dat

a e.

g. f

rom

co

mm

erci

al s

atel

lite

s w

ith

a

spat

ial

reso

luti

on

of

the

ord

er o

f 0.

5 m

, th

at c

an a

cqu

ire

im-

ages

in

a f

ew h

ou

rs a

>er

th

e ev

ent.

Po

st-d

isas

ter

imag

ery

is

use

d t

o a

sses

s th

e im

pac

t o

f th

e ea

rth

qu

ake

by

det

ecti

ng

and

enu

mer

atin

g th

e co

llap

sed

bu

ild

ings

an

d i

den

tify

ing

oth

er

a&ec

ted

in

fras

tru

ctu

re, s

uch

as

dam

aged

ro

ads

or

feat

ure

s o

f

inte

rest

(i.e

. tem

po

rary

sh

elte

rs).

In

an

op

erat

ion

al c

on

text

, a

visu

al in

terp

reta

tio

n a

pp

roac

h is

gen

eral

ly a

do

pte

d t

o e

nsu

re

that

res

ult

s ar

e as

rel

iab

le a

s p

oss

ible

. A

sim

ple

dam

age

as-

sess

men

t cl

assi

'ca

tio

n i

s co

nd

uct

ed b

ased

on

th

e E

uro

pea

n

Mac

rose

ism

ic S

cale

(E

MS-

98),

to

dis

pla

y b

uil

din

gs s

ub

ject

to d

i&er

ent

grad

es o

f d

amag

e b

y co

mp

arin

g th

e p

re-

and

po

st-e

ven

t im

ages

(Y

amaz

aki

et a

l., 2

005)

.

In t

he

case

of

the

2003

Bam

Ear

thq

uak

e a

Dam

age

Ass

ess-

men

t M

ap w

as c

reat

ed b

y vi

sual

in

terp

reta

tio

n u

sin

g th

e

hig

h-r

eso

luti

on

sat

elli

te i

mag

es a

cqu

ired

fro

m t

he

Qu

ick

-

Bir

d s

atel

lite

bef

ore

an

d a

>er

th

e ev

ent,

an

d s

ub

seq

uen

tly

a

dam

aged

bu

ild

ing

surv

ey w

as c

arri

ed o

ut.

Co

mp

arin

g p

re

and

po

st-e

ven

t p

an-s

har

pen

ed i

mag

es,

bu

ild

ings

su

rro

un

d-

ed b

y d

ebri

s, p

arti

ally

co

llap

sed

bu

ild

ings

an

d t

ota

lly

col-

lap

sed

bu

ild

ings

wer

e id

enti

fied

an

d c

ateg

ori

zed

as

slig

htly

dam

aged

, h

eavi

ly d

amag

ed a

nd

col

laps

ed (

Yam

azak

i et

al.,

2005

) (F

igu

re 4

.2.1

2).

Fig

ure

4.

2.12

: C

lass

i'ca

tio

n

of

dam

aged

b

uil

din

gs

(EM

S199

8) a

nd

pre

an

d p

ost

vis

ual

in

terp

reta

tio

n (

Yam

aza-

ki

et a

l., 2

005)

An

in

no

vati

ve a

pp

roac

h i

s a

dam

age

det

ecti

on

alg

ori

thm

,

wh

ich

all

ow

s th

e d

eter

min

atio

n o

f th

e lo

cati

on

an

d s

ever

ity

of

po

st-e

arth

qu

ake

bu

ild

ing

dam

age.

It

is b

ased

on

th

e co

m-

par

ativ

e an

alys

is o

f a

mu

lti-

tem

po

ral

seq

uen

ce o

f o

pti

cal

or

SAR

im

ages

, acq

uir

ed b

efo

re a

nd

a>

er a

n e

arth

qu

ake

even

t.

A p

air

of

‘bef

ore

’ an

d ‘a

>er

’ im

ages

are

pre

-pro

cess

ed t

o r

e-

mo

ve g

eom

etri

c er

rors

in

her

ent

in t

he

dat

a, a

nd

all

sce

nes

are

regi

ster

ed i

n a

co

mm

on

co

ord

inat

e sy

stem

. D

epen

din

g

on

th

e se

nso

r re

solu

tio

n,

an a

dd

itio

nal

im

age

pro

cess

ing

step

in

volv

ing

edge

det

ecti

on

an

d t

extu

re a

nal

ysis

may

th

en

be

per

form

ed t

o h

igh

ligh

t fe

atu

res

of

inte

rest

(i.

e. n

on

-dam

-

aged

an

d c

oll

apse

d b

uil

din

gs).

Ch

ange

s b

etw

een

th

e sc

enes

are

then

co

mp

ute

d u

sin

g a

sim

ple

ari

thm

etic

op

erat

or,

su

ch

as t

he

Di#

eren

ce,

Cor

rela

tion

or

Blo

ck C

orre

lati

on.

Dam

age

seve

rity

is

esta

bli

shed

th

rou

gh b

uil

din

g d

amag

e p

ro'

les,

wh

ich

dem

on

stra

te t

he

gen

eral

co

rrel

atio

n b

etw

een

tem

po

-

ral

chan

ges

in t

he

rem

ote

sen

sin

g im

ager

y an

d t

he

exte

nt

of

bu

ild

ing

coll

apse

, as

det

erm

ined

by

'el

d s

urv

ey (

Ad

ams,

2004

).

Fig

ure

4.2

.11:

Exa

mp

le o

f ea

rth

qu

ake

dam

age

asse

ssm

ent

in

Bo

um

erd

es, A

lger

ia (

Ad

ams,

200

4)

Page 51: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

51

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4

Fig

ure

4.2

.13:

Dam

age

map

s o

f G

olc

uk

cit

y ce

nte

r d

eriv

ed

fro

m S

PO

T s

atel

lite

im

ages

(so

urc

e: A

dam

s, 2

004)

As

des

crib

ed a

bo

ve,

all

the

met

ho

ds

incl

ud

e a

com

par

iso

n

bet

wee

n p

re-a

nd

po

st-e

ven

t im

ages

. $

eref

ore

, it

is

imp

or-

tan

t to

hav

e a

geo

grap

hic

in

form

atio

n s

yste

m t

hat

sto

res

in-

form

atio

n a

nd

sp

atia

l d

ata

(e.g

. to

po

grap

hic

dat

a, g

eolo

gic

and

hyd

roge

olo

gic

dat

a, l

and

use

/lan

d c

ove

r d

ata,

set

tle-

men

ts e

tc.)

as

refe

ren

ce d

ata

in o

rder

to

eva

luat

e su

bse

qu

ent

dam

age

(Ad

ams

et a

l., 2

004;

Tei

mo

uri

et

al.,

2008

).

All

th

is t

hem

atic

co

nte

nt

use

d t

o e

valu

ate

the

spat

ial

dis

tri-

bu

tio

n o

f st

ruct

ura

l d

amag

e is

par

t o

f th

e T

ech

nic

al P

ro'

le

for

an E

arth

qu

ake

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

. $

e sp

eci'

c

feat

ure

s o

f th

is p

rod

uct

are

sh

ow

n i

n T

able

4.2

.2.

Top

icSp

atia

l dis

trib

uti

on

of

stru

ctu

ral d

amag

e d

ue

to e

arth

qu

ake

"em

ati

c co

nte

nt

To

po

grap

hic

bas

e m

ap

Dam

age

to b

uil

din

gs d

isag

greg

ated

by

3 cl

asse

s (s

ligh

t, h

eavy

, co

llap

sed

)

Dam

age

to c

riti

cal i

nfr

astr

uct

ure

s

Ro

ad a

cces

sib

ilit

y

Acc

ess

Up

on

reg

istr

atio

n v

ia i

nte

rnet

Sca

le1:

500

- 1:

10,0

00

Acc

ura

cy0.

2 m

- 2

m

Are

al

cove

rage

Reg

ion

al

Spa

tia

l re

solu

tion

0.5

m -

5 m

Tim

elin

ess

few

ho

urs

a>

er a

n e

mer

gen

cy

Up

da

te f

req

uen

cyN

ot

app

lica

ble

Da

ta f

orm

at

Ras

ter

Map

s an

d v

ecto

r d

atas

ets

(OG

C s

tan

dar

d)

Tab

le 4

.2.2

: Tec

hn

ical

Pro

'le

of

Ear

thq

uak

e D

amag

e A

sses

smen

t M

ap

Page 52: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

52

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 App

rais

al re

sults

Co

nce

rnin

g o

per

atio

nal

ben

e"ts

(F

igu

re 4

.2.1

4),

end

-us-

ers

attr

ibu

ted

hig

h b

ene'

t (>

90 %

) to

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

pin

g fo

r h

um

anit

aria

n a

id a

nd

cri

tica

l in

fra

stru

ctu

re

prot

ecti

on,

sect

ors

wh

ich

are

mo

st i

mp

acte

d b

y an

ear

th-

qu

ake.

A h

igh

ben

e't

rati

ng

was

als

o g

iven

wit

h r

egar

d t

o

secu

rity

(>

60 %

) an

d h

ealt

h c

are

(>70

%).

Als

o n

on

-en

d-u

sers

eva

luat

ed t

he

ben

e+ts

for

hu

man

itar

-

ian

aid

an

d c

riti

cal

infr

ast

ruct

ure

as

hig

hes

t, b

ut

wit

h l

ow

er

sco

res

for

all

asp

ects

in

co

mp

aris

on

wit

h e

nd

-use

rs (

Fig

ure

4.2.

15).

En

d-u

sers

an

d n

on

-en

d-u

sers

ali

ke

gave

no

lo

w-

ben

e't

rati

ngs

to

th

e p

rod

uct

wit

h r

egar

d t

o h

um

anit

aria

n

aid

an

d c

riti

cal i

nfr

ast

ruct

ure

.

Als

o t

he

stra

teg

ic b

ene"

ts a

re c

on

sid

ered

hig

hly

rel

evan

t

by

the

vast

maj

ori

ty o

f th

e en

d-u

sers

(F

igu

re 4

.2.1

6), a

pp

ar-

entl

y in

rec

ogn

itio

n o

f th

e fu

ll i

nfo

rmat

ion

po

ten

tial

of

an

emer

gen

cy p

rod

uct

wh

ich

can

ser

ve t

o m

inim

ize

loss

es i

n

the

actu

al e

mer

gen

cy s

itu

atio

n, a

s w

ell a

s to

su

pp

ort

pre

ven

-

tive

rec

on

stru

ctio

n a

nd

mit

igat

ion

pla

ns

in t

he

foll

ow

-on

.

Ind

eed

, ar

ou

nd

70

% o

f en

d-u

sers

ass

ign

ed a

hig

h b

ene'

t

to t

he

pro

du

ct w

ith

reg

ard

to

su

ppor

t of

pre

ven

tive

str

ateg

ies

and

red

uci

ng

loss

es i

n p

ubl

ic e

con

omy,

an

d m

ore

th

an 6

0 %

did

so

fo

r e"

cien

cy o

f pl

ans

and

pol

icie

s. A

sli

ghtl

y le

sser

rati

ng

was

ass

ign

ed w

ith

res

pec

t to

su

ppor

t of

su

perr

egio

n-

al c

onsi

sten

cy a

nd

coo

pera

tion

an

d t

he

publ

ic a

ccep

tan

ce o

f

plan

s an

d p

olic

ies,

wh

ere

the

latt

er w

as e

valu

ated

of

med

ium

ben

e't

by

mo

re t

han

hal

f o

f th

e en

d-u

sers

.

In g

ener

al,

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs c

on

sid

ered

th

e st

rate

gic

ben

e'ts

of

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

s le

ss im

po

rtan

t th

an e

nd

-use

rs.

In p

arti

cula

r, t

he

ben

e'ts

fo

r re

du

cin

g lo

sses

in

pu

blic

eco

no-

my

and

su

ppor

t of

su

perr

egio

nal

con

sist

ency

an

d c

oope

rati

on

wer

e ev

alu

ated

as

less

sig

ni'

can

t, w

ith

an

in

crea

se i

n m

edi-

um

an

d lo

w b

ene'

t sc

ore

s (F

igu

re 4

.2.1

7). E

"ci

ency

of p

lan

s

and

pol

icie

s an

d s

upp

ort

of p

reve

nti

ve s

trat

egie

s o

bta

ined

th

e

hig

hes

t b

ene'

t ra

tin

g (a

lmo

st 5

0 %

of

hig

h b

ene'

t sc

ore

s).

Ho

wev

er,

also

in

th

ese

case

s, t

her

e w

as a

n i

ncr

ease

in

th

e

med

ium

ben

e't

asse

ssm

ents

.

Co

nce

rnin

g th

e cr

itic

alit

y o

f sp

eci"

c p

rod

uct

fe

atu

res

(Fig

ure

4.2

.18)

, th

e re

spo

nse

s o

f m

ore

th

an 7

0 %

of

end

-

use

rs r

ated

spa

tial

res

olu

tion

an

d a

ccu

racy

as

the

feat

ure

s o

f

grea

test

im

po

rtan

ce,

foll

ow

ed b

y sc

ale,

are

al c

over

age

(bo

th

>60

% h

igh

cri

tica

lity

), a

cces

s (i

.e.

via

inte

rnet

), t

imel

ines

s

and

th

emat

ic c

onte

nt

(>50

%).

Dat

a f

orm

at w

as c

on

sid

ered

of

seco

nd

ary

imp

ort

ance

.

$e

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs g

ave

a su

bst

anti

ally

di&

eren

t re

spo

nse

to t

he

leve

l o

f cr

itic

alit

ies

com

par

ed w

ith

en

d-u

sers

(F

igu

re

4.2.

19).

$e

feat

ure

s co

nsi

der

ed o

f h

igh

est

imp

ort

ance

wer

e

them

atic

con

ten

t an

d t

imel

ines

s, w

ith

nea

rly

80 %

of

no

n-

end

-use

rs e

valu

atin

g th

em a

s h

igh

ly c

riti

cal.

Acc

ess

to t

he

pro

du

ct w

as t

he

thir

d m

ost

cri

tica

l fea

ture

(>

60 %

). A

low

er

per

cen

tage

of

hig

h c

riti

cali

ty s

core

s, w

ere

attr

ibu

ted

to

ac-

cura

cy (

nea

rly

60%

) an

d s

cale

(>

50 %

). H

igh

cri

tica

lity

of

spat

ial

reso

luti

on a

nd

are

al c

over

age

sco

red

eve

n l

ow

er w

ith

<50

%, a

lth

ou

gh i

n p

arti

cula

r sp

atia

l re

solu

tion

is

a re

leva

nt

asp

ect

for

the

cart

ogr

aph

ic o

utp

ut

and

o>

en m

ay i

n%

uen

ce

the

qu

alit

y o

f th

e m

ap p

rod

uct

s an

d t

he

typ

olo

gy

of t

hem

atic

con

ten

t. D

ata

for

mat

was

th

e fe

atu

re w

ith

th

e le

ast

imp

or-

tan

ce a

lso

to

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs.

Page 53: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

53

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4F

igu

re 4

.2.1

5: O

per

atio

nal

Ben

e'ts

of

Ear

thq

uak

e D

amag

e

Ass

essm

ent

Map

(n

on

-en

d-u

sers

ap

pra

isal

)

Fig

ure

4.2

.18:

Cri

tica

lity

of

spec

i'c

feat

ure

s o

f E

arth

qu

ake

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

(en

d-u

sers

ap

pra

isal

)

Fig

ure

4.2

.14:

Op

erat

ion

al B

ene'

ts o

f E

arth

qu

ake

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

(en

d-u

sers

ap

pra

isal

)

Fig

ure

4.2

.17:

Str

ateg

ic B

ene'

ts o

f E

arth

qu

ake

Dam

age

As-

sess

men

t M

ap (

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs a

pp

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.2

.16:

Str

ateg

ic B

ene'

ts o

f E

arth

qu

ake

Dam

age

As-

sess

men

t M

ap (

end

-use

rs a

pp

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.2

.19:

Cri

tica

lity

of

spec

i'c

feat

ure

s o

f E

arth

qu

ake

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

(n

on

-en

d-u

sers

ap

pra

isal

)

Page 54: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

54

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 4.3

D

rou

gh

t h

azard

assessm

en

t

Iren

e A

nge

lucc

etti

an

d F

ran

cesc

a P

erez

 

Art

icle

1 o

f th

e U

nit

ed N

atio

ns

Co

nve

nti

on

to

Co

mb

at

Des

erti

'ca

tio

n(U

NC

CD

)1 de'

nes

dro

ugh

t as

“th

e n

atu

rall

y

occ

urr

ing

ph

eno

men

on

th

at e

xist

s w

hen

pre

cip

itat

ion

has

bee

n s

ign

i'ca

ntl

y b

elo

w n

orm

al r

eco

rded

lev

els,

cau

sin

g

seri

ou

s h

ydro

logi

cal

imb

alan

ces

that

ad

vers

ely

a&ec

t la

nd

reso

urc

e p

rod

uct

ion

sys

tem

s”.

Bey

on

d t

his

gen

eral

de'

nit

ion

, th

ere

are

mo

re s

pec

i'c

way

s

of

un

der

stan

din

g d

rou

ght.

Fo

r ex

amp

le,

a cl

assi

'ca

tio

n o

f

dro

ugh

ts f

rom

a d

isci

pli

ne

per

spec

tive

als

o e

xist

s. $

us,

in

term

s o

f ty

po

logi

es,

dro

ugh

ts a

re c

om

mo

nly

cla

ssi'

ed a

s

met

eoro

logi

cal,

agri

cult

ura

l, h

ydro

logi

cal,

and

so

cio

-eco

-

no

mic

in

ter-

rela

ted

eve

nts

(se

e F

igu

re 4

.3.1

).

In g

ener

al,

the

po

ten

tial

dis

aste

r lo

sses

in

ter

ms

of

live

s,

hea

lth

sta

tus,

liv

elih

oo

ds,

ass

ets

and

ser

vice

s, w

hic

h c

ou

ld

occ

ur

to a

par

ticu

lar

com

mu

nit

y o

r a

soci

ety

ove

r so

me

spe-

ci'

ed f

utu

re t

ime

per

iod

, are

de'

ned

as

dis

ast

er r

isk

(UN

IS-

DR

, 200

9b).

$e

risk

ass

oci

ated

wit

h a

dis

aste

r fo

r an

y re

gio

n

or

gro

up

is

a p

rod

uct

of

the

expo

sure

to

th

e n

atu

ral

haz

ard

and

th

e vu

lner

abil

ity

of

the

soci

ety

to t

he

even

t. $

eref

ore

,

dro

ugh

t ri

sk i

s b

ased

on

a c

om

bin

atio

n o

f th

e fr

equ

ency

,

seve

rity

, an

d s

pat

ial

exte

nt

of

dro

ugh

t ev

ents

(th

e p

hys

ical

nat

ure

of

the

con

sid

ered

haz

ard

) an

d t

he

deg

ree

to w

hic

h a

po

pu

lati

on

or

acti

vity

is

vuln

erab

le t

o t

he

e&ec

ts o

f d

rou

ght

(UN

ISD

R,

2009

b).

$e

deg

ree

of

vuln

erab

ilit

y o

f a

regi

on

dep

end

s o

n t

he

envi

ron

men

tal

and

so

cial

ch

arac

teri

stic

s o

f

the

regi

on

an

d i

s m

easu

red

by

the

inh

abit

ants

’ ab

ilit

y to

an

-

tici

pat

e, c

op

e w

ith

, res

ist,

an

d r

eco

ver

fro

m d

rou

ght.

1 h

ttp

://w

ww

.un

ccd

.in

t/en

/ab

ou

t-th

e-co

nve

nti

on

/Pa-

ges/

Tex

t-P

art-

I.as

px

In t

he

foll

ow

ing,

so

me

con

sid

erat

ion

s re

gard

ing

ind

icat

ors

and

in

dic

es d

evel

op

ed t

o i

den

tify

, as

sess

an

d m

ap d

rou

ght

haz

ard

s an

d v

uln

erab

ilit

y ar

e p

rese

nte

d.

$e

freq

uen

cy o

f d

rou

ght

even

ts a

t va

rio

us

leve

ls o

f in

ten

-

sity

an

d d

ura

tio

n d

e'n

es t

he

dro

ugh

t h

aza

rd f

or

the

nat

ion

s

and

reg

ion

s co

nsi

der

ed.

Bec

ause

of

the

com

ple

x d

e'n

itio

n

of

the

ob

serv

ed p

hen

om

ena,

sev

eral

ind

ices

hav

e b

een

dev

e-

lop

ed t

o c

har

acte

rize

th

e m

eteo

rolo

gica

l, so

il m

ois

ture

an

d

hyd

rolo

gica

l as

pec

ts o

f th

e h

azar

d i

n o

rder

to

an

alyz

e th

e

his

tori

cal

freq

uen

cy,

seve

rity

an

d e

xten

t o

f d

rou

ght

even

ts.

Star

tin

g fr

om

th

e in

vest

igat

ion

of

the

his

tori

cal

occ

urr

ence

of

dro

ugh

t in

a c

ou

ntr

y, t

he

mo

st d

rou

ght-

pro

ne

and

ch

ro-

nic

ally

dro

ugh

t-a&

ecte

d a

reas

can

th

en b

e cl

assi

'ed

.

Co

mm

on

ly u

sed

dro

ugh

t h

azar

d i

nd

icat

ors

/in

dic

es i

ncl

ud

e

(IP

CC

, 201

2):

tho

se b

ased

on

ly o

n p

reci

pit

atio

n d

ata,

e.g

. th

e St

and

ard

Pre

cip

itat

ion

In

dex

(SP

I) (

McK

ee e

t al

., 19

93;

Llo

yd-

Hu

ghes

an

d S

aun

der

s, 2

002)

an

d t

he

Co

nse

cuti

ve D

ry

Day

s (C

DD

) in

dex

(F

rich

et

al.,

2002

; A

lexa

nd

er e

t al

.,

2006

);

tho

se t

hat

re%

ect

bo

th p

reci

pit

atio

n a

nd

est

imat

es o

f

actu

al o

r p

ote

nti

al e

vap

otr

ansp

irat

ion

, e.

g. t

he

Pal

mer

Dro

ugh

t S

ever

ity

Ind

ex, P

DSI

, (P

alm

er, 1

965)

, th

e P

re-

cip

itat

ion

Po

ten

tial

Eva

po

rati

on

An

om

aly,

PP

EA

, (B

ur-

ke

and

Bro

wn

, 20

08)

and

th

e St

and

ard

ized

Pre

cip

itat

i-

on

Eva

po

tran

spir

atio

n I

nd

ex, S

PE

I (V

icen

te-S

erra

no

et

al.,

2010

);

soil

m

ois

ture

an

om

alie

s (D

ai,

2011

; O

rlo

wsk

y an

d

Sen

evir

atn

e, 2

011;

Zri

bi

et a

l., 2

012)

an

d v

eget

atio

n-

der

ived

mo

nit

ori

ng

ind

ices

, e.

g. t

he

No

rmal

ized

Di&

e-

ren

ce V

eget

atio

n I

nd

ex,

ND

VI,

(B

ai,

2008

; T

ow

nsh

end

and

Ju

stic

e, 1

986;

Ree

d e

t al

., 19

94;

Just

ice

et a

l., 1

996)

wh

ich

wer

e sp

eci'

call

y co

nce

ived

fo

r th

e as

sess

men

t o

f

agri

cult

ura

l dro

ugh

t.

It s

ho

uld

be

no

ted

th

at m

ost

of

thes

e in

dic

ato

rs/i

nd

ices

may

be

der

ived

fro

m s

atel

lite

-bas

ed d

ata,

fre

qu

entl

y av

aila

ble

glo

bal

ly a

nd

fre

e-o

f-ch

arge

, th

us

allo

win

g p

rop

er d

rou

ght

haz

ard

map

pin

g ac

tivi

ties

.

Peo

ple

’s v

uln

erab

ilit

y to

dro

ugh

t is

co

mp

lex.

$e

Un

ited

Na-

tio

ns

Sec

reta

riat

of

the

Inte

rnat

ion

al S

trat

egy

for

Dis

aste

r

Red

uct

ion

(U

NIS

DR

) d

e'n

es v

uln

erab

ilit

y as

“th

e ch

arac

-

teri

stic

s an

d c

ircu

mst

ance

s o

f a

com

mu

nit

y, s

yste

m o

r as

set

that

mak

e it

su

scep

tib

le to

the

dam

agin

g e&

ects

of a

haz

ard

”2 .

Dro

ugh

t e&

ects

are

su

bst

anti

al in

bo

th d

evel

op

ing

and

dev

e-

lop

ed c

ou

ntr

ies,

bu

t th

e ch

arac

teri

stic

s o

f th

ese

e&ec

ts d

i&er

con

sid

erab

ly.

$e

abil

ity

to c

op

e w

ith

dro

ugh

t al

so v

arie

s

con

sid

erab

ly f

rom

co

un

try

to c

ou

ntr

y an

d f

rom

on

e re

gi-

on

, co

mm

un

ity,

or

gro

up

to

an

oth

er. $

e co

pin

g ca

pac

ity

is

de'

ned

as

“th

e ab

ilit

y o

f p

eop

le, o

rgan

izat

ion

s an

d s

yste

ms,

usi

ng

avai

lab

le s

kil

ls a

nd

res

ou

rces

, to

fac

e an

d m

anag

e ad

-

vers

e co

nd

itio

ns,

em

erge

nci

es o

r d

isas

ters

”3 . In

th

is f

ram

e-

wo

rk, v

uln

erab

ilit

y is

des

crib

ed b

y as

sess

men

t o

f co

nd

itio

ns

of p

eop

le d

eriv

ed f

rom

th

e h

isto

rica

l an

d p

reva

ilin

g cu

ltu

ral,

soci

al, e

nvi

ron

men

tal,

po

liti

cal a

nd

eco

no

mic

co

nte

xts.

Vu

l-

ner

able

gro

up

s ar

e n

ot

on

ly a

t ri

sk b

ecau

se t

hey

are

exp

ose

d

to a

haz

ard

bu

t ar

e al

so s

ub

ject

to

th

e m

argi

nal

ity

of

eve-

ryd

ay p

atte

rns

of

soci

al i

nte

ract

ion

an

d o

rgan

izat

ion

, an

d

acce

ss t

o r

eso

urc

es (

Car

do

na

et a

l., 2

012)

.

Acc

ord

ing

to t

he

rep

ort

in t

he

Un

ited

Nat

ion

s D

evel

op

men

t

Pro

gram

me

(UN

DP,

200

4) V

isio

ns

of

Ris

k: A

Rev

iew

of

In-

tern

atio

nal

In

dic

ato

rs o

f D

isas

ter

Ris

k a

nd

its

Man

agem

ent,

pre

par

ed b

y th

e W

ork

ing

Gro

up

on

Ris

k,

Vu

lner

abil

ity

and

Dis

aste

r Im

pac

t A

sses

smen

t o

f th

e In

ter-

Age

ncy

Tas

k F

orc

e

of

the

Inte

rnat

ion

al S

trat

egy

for

Dis

aste

r R

edu

ctio

n (

ISD

R),

at p

rese

nt

the

asse

ssm

ent

and

map

pin

g o

f h

um

an v

uln

erab

i-

lity

are

less

dev

elo

ped

th

an t

he

asse

ssm

ent

of

haz

ard

s.

2 h

ttp

://w

ww

.un

isd

r.o

rg/e

ng

/ter

min

olo

gy

/UN

ISD

R-

Ter

min

olo

gy-

En

glis

h.p

df

3 h

ttp

://w

ww

.un

isd

r.o

rg/w

e/in

form

/ter

min

olo

gy

Page 55: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

55

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4V

uln

erab

ilit

y as

sess

men

ts v

ary

in t

he

bal

ance

bet

wee

n c

on

-

sid

erat

ion

s o

f so

cial

, ec

on

om

ic a

nd

po

liti

cal

char

acte

rist

ics

and

th

e ex

ten

t to

wh

ich

en

viro

nm

enta

l an

d e

colo

gica

l as

-

sets

are

in

clu

ded

. F

or

this

rea

son

, an

d b

ecau

se o

f th

e d

yna-

mic

nat

ure

of

hu

man

vu

lner

abil

ity,

th

e im

ple

men

tati

on

of

a

com

pre

hen

sive

vu

lner

abil

ity

asse

ssm

ent

has

pro

ven

di#

cult

(UN

DP,

200

4).

A g

ener

al a

pp

roac

h p

rop

ose

d b

y th

e U

NIS

DR

to

ass

ess

vul-

ner

abil

ity,

is

bas

ed o

n d

rou

ght

imp

act

asse

ssm

ent

acti

viti

es.

Eac

h d

rou

ght

pro

du

ces

a u

niq

ue

set

of

imp

acts

, d

epen

din

g

no

t o

nly

on

th

e d

rou

ght

seve

rity

, d

ura

tio

n a

nd

sp

atia

l ex

-

ten

t, b

ut

also

on

th

e ev

er c

han

gin

g so

cial

co

nd

itio

ns.

Fo

r

pra

ctic

al p

urp

ose

s, d

rou

ght

imp

acts

can

be

clas

si'

ed a

s

eco

no

mic

, en

viro

nm

enta

l, o

r so

cial

, ev

en t

ho

ugh

sev

eral

of

the

imp

acts

may

act

ual

ly s

pan

mo

re t

han

on

e se

cto

r an

d

are

lin

ked

clo

sely

to

eac

h o

ther

(se

e T

able

s 4.

3.1,

4.3

.2 a

nd

4.3.

3).

$es

e im

pac

ts a

re s

ymp

tom

s o

f u

nd

erly

ing

vuln

era-

bil

itie

s. I

den

ti'

cati

on

an

d p

rio

riti

zati

on

of

dro

ugh

t im

pac

ts

wil

l ra

ise

an i

mp

ort

ant

qu

esti

on

: wh

y h

ave

thes

e si

gni'

can

t

imp

acts

occ

urr

ed o

r w

hy

mig

ht

they

occ

ur?

Map

pin

g th

e

cau

se/e

&ec

t re

lati

on

ship

s o

f su

ch i

mp

acts

hel

ps

to u

nd

er-

stan

d w

her

e th

e tr

igge

rin

g fa

cto

rs a

re, h

ow

th

ese

un

der

lyin

g

fact

ors

in

tera

ct w

ith

eac

h o

ther

at

bo

th m

icro

an

d m

acro

leve

ls,

and

ho

w t

hes

e d

ynam

ics

crea

te v

uln

erab

ilit

y w

ith

in

a so

ciet

y. $

eref

ore

, im

pac

t as

sess

men

ts a

re a

go

od

sta

rtin

g

po

int

in h

elp

ing

to h

igh

ligh

t se

cto

rs, p

op

ula

tio

ns,

or

acti

vi-

ties

th

at a

re v

uln

erab

le t

o d

rou

ght

(UN

ISD

R, 2

009b

).

In g

ener

al, a

n im

pac

t as

sess

men

t is

car

ried

ou

t b

y re

view

ing

the

pas

t o

r cu

rren

t d

rou

ght

reco

rds

and

it

is i

ncl

ud

ed i

n a

mo

re g

ener

al r

isk

ass

essm

ent

pro

ced

ure

, co

mp

risi

ng:

the

anal

ysis

of

the

his

tori

cal f

req

uen

cy, s

ever

ity

and

ex-

ten

t o

f d

rou

ght,

the

iden

ti'

cati

on

an

d r

ank

ing

of

dro

ugh

t-re

late

d i

m-

pac

ts, a

nd

a vu

lner

abil

ity

anal

ysis

to

in

vest

igat

e w

hy

the

imp

acts

occ

ur.

Fig

ure

4.3

.1:

Rel

atio

nsh

ip b

etw

een

met

eoro

logi

cal,

agri

cult

ura

l, h

ydro

logi

cal

and

so

cio

-eco

no

mic

dro

ugh

t (N

atio

nal

Dro

ugh

t M

itig

atio

n C

ente

r, U

niv

ersi

ty o

f N

ebra

ska-

Lin

coln

, USA

)

Page 56: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

56

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4D

irec

t Im

pa

cts

Ind

irec

t Im

pa

cts

Co

sts

an

d l

oss

es

to a

gric

ult

ura

l

pro

du

cers

An

nu

al a

nd

per

enn

ial c

rop

loss

es

Dam

age

to c

rop

qu

alit

y

Red

uce

d p

rod

uct

ivit

y o

f cr

op

lan

d,

e.g.

, win

d

ero

sio

n

Inse

ct i

nfe

stat

ion

s

Pla

nt

dis

ease

s

Wil

dli

fe d

amag

e to

cro

ps

Inco

me

loss

to

far

mer

s b

ecau

se o

f re

du

ced

cro

p y

ield

s

Incr

ease

d i

rrig

atio

n c

ost

s

Co

st o

f n

ew o

r su

pp

lem

enta

l wat

er r

eso

urc

e

dev

elo

pm

ent,

e.g

., w

ells

, dam

s an

d p

ipel

ines

Lo

ng-

term

loss

of

org

anic

mat

ter

Lo

ss t

o i

nd

ust

ries

dir

ectl

y d

epen

den

t o

n a

gri-

cult

ura

l pro

du

ctio

n, e

.g.,

foo

d p

roce

sso

rs

Incr

ease

d c

om

mo

dit

y p

rice

s

Co

sts

an

d l

oss

es

to l

ives

tock

pro

du

cers

Red

uce

d p

rod

uct

ivit

y o

f ra

nge

lan

d, a

nim

al

carr

yin

g ca

pac

ity

Incr

ease

d t

rave

l tim

e fo

r gr

azin

g

Dec

reas

ed s

tock

wei

ghts

an

d r

edu

ced

mil

k

pro

du

ctio

n

Incr

ease

d li

vest

ock

dis

ease

s

Clo

sure

/lim

itat

ion

of

pu

bli

c la

nd

s to

gra

zin

g

Ran

ge '

res

Fo

rced

red

uct

ion

of

fou

nd

atio

n s

tock

(se

eds)

Hig

h c

ost

/un

avai

lab

ilit

y o

f fe

ed o

r w

ater

fo

r

live

sto

ck

Red

uct

ion

s in

live

sto

ck m

ark

et p

rice

s

Incr

ease

d f

eed

tra

nsp

ort

atio

n c

ost

s

Dis

rup

tio

n o

f re

pro

du

ctio

n c

ycle

s (d

elay

ed

bre

edin

g, m

ore

mis

carr

iage

s)

Incr

ease

d p

red

atio

n a

nd

po

uch

ing

Co

sts

an

d l

oss

es

to i

nd

ust

ry a

nd

urb

an

act

ivit

ies

Hig

her

co

st o

f w

ater

an

d s

anit

atio

n

Dec

reas

e in

pu

bli

c w

ater

su

pp

lies

Imp

acts

on

tra

nsp

ort

atio

n

Hig

her

co

st/l

ow

er a

vail

abil

ity

of

hyd

ro-

elec

tric

po

wer

Hig

her

co

st o

r u

nav

aila

bil

ity

of

wat

er f

or

ho

rtic

ult

ure

, agr

o-f

oo

d p

roce

ssin

g an

d v

alu

e

add

ed m

anu

fact

uri

ng

Imp

aire

d p

rod

uct

ivit

y o

f fo

rest

lan

d a

nd

red

uce

d t

imb

er p

rod

uct

ion

Incr

ease

d p

oll

uti

on

, e.g

., d

ust

Incr

ease

d d

isea

ses

Red

uct

ion

in

to

uri

sm r

even

ue,

e.g

., w

ild

life

Stra

in o

n '

nan

cial

in

stit

uti

on

s, e

.g.,

grea

ter

cred

it r

isk

s

Tab

le 4

.3.1

: Eco

no

mic

im

pac

ts o

f d

rou

ght

(UN

DP,

201

1)

Page 57: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

57

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4D

irec

t Im

pa

cts

Ind

irec

t Im

pa

cts

Hyd

rolo

gica

lL

ow

er w

ater

leve

ls i

n r

eser

voir

s, la

kes

and

po

nd

s

Red

uce

d s

trea

m %

ow

Lo

ss o

f w

etla

nd

s

Incr

ease

d g

rou

nd

wat

er d

eple

tio

n a

nd

lan

d s

ub

sid

ence

Incr

ease

d t

ime

and

co

st f

or

wat

er c

oll

ecti

on

an

d

tran

sfer

Lo

wer

wat

er q

ual

ity,

e.g

., sa

lin

izat

ion

an

d t

emp

era-

ture

in

crea

se

Wat

erb

orn

e d

isea

ses

Win

d a

nd

wat

er e

rosi

on

on

so

ils

Bio

logi

cal

Lo

ss o

f tr

ees

and

veg

etat

ion

Lo

ss o

f an

imal

sp

ecie

s d

iver

sity

Fra

gmen

tati

on

an

d d

estr

uct

ion

of

wil

dli

fe h

abit

ats

Mig

rati

on

, co

nce

ntr

atio

n a

nd

in

crea

sed

pre

dat

ion

Lo

ss o

f b

iod

iver

sity

Tab

le 4

.3.2

: En

viro

nm

enta

l im

pac

ts o

f d

rou

ght

(U

ND

P, 2

011)

Dir

ect

Imp

act

sIn

dir

ect

Imp

act

s

Red

uce

d q

ua

-

lity

of

life

Incr

ease

d w

ork

load

fo

r w

om

en i

n c

oll

-

ecti

ng

fuel

-wo

od

an

d w

ater

Red

uce

d le

vels

an

d v

arie

ty o

f fo

od

sou

rces

Incr

ease

d g

ove

rnm

ent

exp

end

itu

re o

n

reli

ef

Incr

ease

d p

ove

rty

Mig

rati

on

s (r

ura

l to

urb

an a

reas

, cro

ss b

ord

er)

Red

uct

ion

or

mo

di'

cati

on

of

recr

eati

on

al a

ctiv

itie

s

Dis

rup

tio

n o

f cu

ltu

ral p

ract

ices

an

d b

elie

f/va

lue

syst

em

Lo

ss o

f cu

ltu

ral s

ites

an

d a

esth

etic

val

ues

Incr

ease

d

con

#ic

ts

Wat

er u

ser

con

%ic

ts

Po

liti

cal c

on

%ic

ts

Man

agem

ent

con

%ic

ts

Oth

er s

oci

al c

on

%ic

ts, e

.g.,

scie

nti

'c

and

med

ia-

bas

ed

Hea

lth

Ph

ysic

al a

nd

em

oti

on

al s

tres

s, e

.g.,

anxi

-

ety,

dep

ress

ion

an

d lo

ss o

f se

curi

ty

Hea

lth

-rel

ated

low

-%o

w p

rob

lem

s, e

.g.,

cro

ss-c

on

-

nec

tio

n c

on

tam

inat

ion

, dim

inis

hed

sew

age

%o

ws,

incr

ease

d p

oll

uta

nt

con

cen

trat

ion

s an

d r

edu

ced

're

'gh

tin

g ca

pab

ilit

y

Red

uct

ion

s in

nu

trit

ion

Lo

ss o

f h

um

an li

fe

Pu

bli

c sa

fety

fro

m f

ore

st a

nd

ran

ge '

res

Incr

ease

d r

esp

irat

ory

ail

men

ts

Incr

ease

d d

isea

se c

ause

d b

y w

ild

life

co

nce

ntr

atio

ns

Tab

le 4

.3.3

: So

cial

im

pac

ts o

f d

rou

ght

(UN

DP,

201

1)

Page 58: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

58

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 Star

tin

g fr

om

in

vest

igat

ing

dro

ugh

t im

pac

ts,

som

e in

dic

a-

tors

hav

e b

een

dev

elo

ped

to

ch

arac

teri

ze d

rou

ght

vuln

erab

i-

lity

, co

nsi

der

ing

the

eco

no

mic

, en

viro

nm

enta

l, o

r so

cial

na-

ture

of

thes

e im

pac

ts, a

nd

are

sp

eci'

call

y u

sed

fo

r m

app

ing

vuln

erab

ilit

y o

n a

glo

bal

sca

le.

Gen

eral

ly,

thes

e in

dic

ato

rs

are

bas

ed o

n g

lob

al s

oci

o-e

con

om

ic d

atab

ases

ava

ilab

le o

n a

nat

ion

al a

ggre

gati

on

lev

el (

or

even

a s

ub

-nat

ion

al l

evel

, bu

t

in t

his

cas

e, t

hey

are

un

lik

ely

to b

e o

f gl

ob

al c

ove

rage

) o

r

geo

spat

ial

dat

aset

s w

ith

a v

ery

coar

se r

eso

luti

on

, so

me

of

wh

ich

are

der

ived

fro

m s

atel

lite

acq

uis

itio

ns.

It

sho

uld

be

no

ted

th

at t

his

iss

ue

con

stit

ute

s a

maj

or

lim

itat

ion

of

the

atta

inab

le s

pat

ial r

eso

luti

on

of

the

'n

al v

uln

erab

ilit

y m

aps.

Co

mm

on

exa

mp

les

of

bas

e d

atas

ets

use

d f

or

the

de'

nit

i-

on

of

dro

ugh

t vu

lner

abil

ity

ind

icat

ors

, co

nsi

der

ing

soci

o-

eco

no

mic

as

wel

l as

nat

ura

l co

mp

on

ents

of

cop

ing

cap

acit

y

and

rel

ated

ref

eren

ces,

are

su

mm

ariz

ed i

n T

able

4.3

.4.

In

this

tab

le, p

arti

cula

r at

ten

tio

n h

as b

een

pai

d t

o t

he

dat

aset

s

use

d f

or

the

pro

du

ctio

n o

f gl

ob

al r

isk

in

dic

es.

In p

arti

cu-

lar,

th

e D

isas

ter

Ris

k I

nd

ex (

DR

I) d

evel

op

ed b

y th

e U

nit

ed

Nat

ion

s D

evel

op

men

t P

rogr

amm

e (U

ND

P)

(Ped

uzz

i et

al.,

2009

; BC

PR

-UN

DP,

200

4) a

nd

th

e W

orl

d R

isk

In

dex

(W

RI)

(Bir

km

ann

an

d M

uck

e, 2

011)

hav

e b

een

tak

en i

nto

co

nsi

-

der

atio

n.

Fig

ure

s 4.

3.2

and

4.3

.3 g

ive

two

exa

mp

les

of

map

s sh

ow

ing

rep

ort

ed c

om

po

nen

ts o

f d

rou

ght

vuln

erab

ilit

y.

Fu

rth

erm

ore

, it s

ho

uld

be

no

ted

th

at m

any

com

ple

x d

rou

ght

vuln

erab

ilit

y in

dic

ato

rs c

an b

e fo

un

d i

n l

iter

atu

re, b

ased

on

mo

re s

pec

i'c

dat

aset

s, b

ut

seld

om

hav

e th

ese

met

ho

do

lo-

gies

pro

ven

to

be

app

lica

ble

glo

bal

ly, m

ain

ly b

ecau

se o

f th

eir

lack

of

geo

spat

ial r

efer

ence

dat

a. $

eref

ore

, th

ese

ind

icat

ors

hav

e n

ot

bee

n c

on

sid

ered

in

ord

er t

o d

e'n

e th

e T

ech

nic

al

Pro

'le

as

sho

wn

in

Tab

le 4

.3.5

.

Com

pon

ents

Da

tase

tR

efer

ence

So

cio

-eco

nom

ic

cap

aci

ty

GD

P p

er c

apit

aB

irk

man

n a

nd

Mu

cke,

201

1; E

riyg

ama

et a

l., 2

009

Agr

icu

ltu

re, v

alu

e ad

ded

(%

of

GD

P)

Eri

ygam

a et

al.,

200

9

Em

plo

ymen

t in

agr

icu

ltu

re (

% o

f to

tal

emp

loym

ent)

, un

emp

loym

ent

rate

Eri

ygam

a et

al.,

200

9; B

irk

man

n a

nd

Mu

cke,

201

1

Po

pu

lati

on

an

d r

ura

l po

pu

lati

on

'gu

res

Bir

km

ann

an

d M

uck

e, 2

011;

Ped

uzz

i et

al.,

200

9; E

riyg

a-

ma

et a

l., 2

009

Na

tura

l ca

pit

al

Ara

ble

/irr

igat

ed la

nd

are

aP

edu

zzi

et a

l., 2

009

Cro

pla

nd

are

a an

d la

nd

co

ver

Ped

uzz

i et

al.,

200

9

An

nu

al P

reci

pit

atio

n a

nd

Riv

er D

i-

sch

arge

Bir

km

ann

an

d M

uck

e, 2

011;

Eri

ygam

a et

al.,

200

9

Dep

th o

f so

il a

nd

hu

man

in

du

ced

so

il

deg

rad

atio

n (

GL

ASO

D)

Eri

ygam

a et

al.,

200

9; P

edu

zzi

et a

l., 2

003

Tab

le 4

.3.4

: Co

mm

on

bas

e d

atas

ets

use

d f

or

vuln

erab

ilit

y in

dic

ato

rs d

evel

op

men

t

Top

icR

egio

nal

vu

lner

abil

ity

to e

con

om

ic, e

nvi

ron

men

tal,

or

soci

al i

mp

acts

of

dro

ugh

t

"em

ati

c co

nte

nt

8 d

rou

ght

vuln

erab

ilit

y cl

asse

s b

ased

on

soci

o-e

con

om

ic d

ata

(su

ch a

s gr

oss

do

mes

tic

pro

du

ct p

er c

apit

a, d

epen

den

ce o

n a

gric

ult

ure

for

inco

me

and

em

plo

ymen

t, t

ota

l an

d r

ura

l po

pu

lati

on

) an

d

bio

ph

ysic

al d

ata

(su

ch a

s la

nd

co

ver,

an

nu

al p

reci

pit

atio

n a

nd

riv

er d

isch

arge

, so

il d

epth

, so

il

deg

rad

atio

n)

Acc

ess

Up

on

reg

istr

atio

n v

ia i

nte

rnet

Sca

leN

ot

app

lica

ble

Acc

ura

cyN

ot

app

lica

ble

Are

al

cove

rage

Glo

bal

/Reg

ion

al

Spa

tia

l re

solu

tion

0.5°

x 0

.5°

(ave

rage

) fo

r gl

ob

al r

aste

r d

atas

ets

use

d f

or

dro

ugh

t vu

lner

abil

ity

ind

icat

ors

nat

ion

al a

ggre

gati

on

leve

l fo

r so

cio

eco

no

mic

dat

a

Tim

elin

ess

2 -

10 y

ears

Up

da

te f

req

uen

cyD

epth

of

soil

an

d h

um

an i

nd

uce

d s

oil

deg

rad

atio

n (

GL

ASO

D)

Da

ta f

orm

at

Ras

ter

Map

s an

d v

ecto

r d

atas

ets

(OG

C s

tan

dar

d)

Tab

le 4

.3.5

: Tec

hn

ical

pro

'le

fo

r D

rou

ght

Vu

lner

abil

ity

Map

Page 59: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

59

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4

Fig

ure

4.3

.2: B

iop

hys

ical

Vu

lner

abil

ity

Ind

ex b

ased

on

mea

n a

nn

ual

su

rfac

e ru

no

&, m

ean

an

nu

al g

rou

nd

wat

er r

ech

ar-

ge, s

oil

dep

th a

nd

so

il d

egra

dat

ion

sev

erit

y w

ith

in 0

.50

grid

cel

l. (E

riyg

ama

et a

l., 2

009)

Fig

ure

4.3

.3: S

oci

oec

on

om

ic D

rou

ght

Vu

lner

abil

ity

Ind

ex b

ased

on

th

e cr

op

div

ersi

ty o

f in

div

idu

al c

ou

ntr

ies

and

th

eir

dep

end

ence

on

agr

icu

ltu

re f

or

inco

me

and

em

plo

ymen

t ge

ner

atio

n (

Eri

ygam

a et

al.,

200

9)

Page 60: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

60

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 Co

nsi

der

ing

the

op

erat

ion

al b

ene"

ts o

f a

Dro

ugh

t V

uln

e-

rab

ilit

y M

ap (

Fig

ure

4.3

.4),

hu

man

itar

ian

aid

sco

red

hig

hes

t

in t

he

app

rais

al b

y en

d-u

sers

wit

h a

>65

% h

igh

ben

e't

ra-

tin

g, f

oll

ow

ed b

y h

ealt

h c

are

wit

h >

50 %

. In

dee

d a

Dro

ugh

t

Vu

lner

abil

ity

Map

co

uld

pro

vid

e u

sefu

l in

form

atio

n o

n a

re-

as a

nd

peo

ple

mo

st a

&ec

ted

by

such

a c

risi

s an

d c

ou

ld b

e

hel

pfu

l in

th

e p

rovi

sio

n o

f su

pp

ort

to

th

ose

su

bje

cted

to

a f

a-

min

e, w

hic

h i

s o

ne

of

the

ind

irec

t co

nse

qu

ence

s o

f d

rou

ght.

$e

app

rais

al r

esu

lts

fro

m n

on

-en

d-u

sers

fo

llo

wed

a s

imil

ar

pat

tern

, b

ut

wit

h a

lo

wer

sco

re f

or

all

op

erat

ion

al a

spec

ts,

esp

ecia

lly

so f

or

crit

ical

in

fra

stru

ctu

re a

nd

sec

uri

ty (

Fig

ure

4.3.

5).

Fo

r th

e st

rate

gic

ben

e"ts

, a

hig

h b

ene'

t w

as a

ttri

bu

ted

to

supp

ort

of p

reve

nti

ve s

trat

egie

s an

d t

o e

"ci

ency

of

plan

s an

d

poli

cies

by

mo

re t

han

60

% o

f th

e en

d-u

sers

(F

igu

re 4

.3.6

),

wh

ich

is p

lau

sib

le w

ith

reg

ard

to

a d

isti

nct

ly p

reve

nti

on

-ori

-

ente

d p

rod

uct

su

ch a

s a

vuln

erab

ilit

y m

ap.

A s

ligh

tly

low

er

rati

ng

was

giv

en t

o t

he

ben

e't

for

red

uci

ng

econ

omic

los

ses,

wh

ich

co

uld

be

du

e to

th

e fa

ct t

hat

th

is k

ind

of

map

was

un

-

der

sto

od

as

rep

rese

nti

ng

a st

atu

s q

uo

an

te a

nd

no

t an

act

ual

emer

gen

cy s

itu

atio

n.

Lik

ewis

e, t

he

ben

e't

to e

"ci

ency

of

plan

s an

d p

olic

ies

was

als

o r

ated

as

hig

h b

y m

ore

th

an 6

0 %

of

the

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs (

Fig

ure

4.3

.7).

In

co

ntr

ast

to t

he

end

-

use

rs g

rou

p,

ho

wev

er,

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs g

ave

sim

ilar

hig

h r

a-

tin

gs t

o t

he

ben

e'ts

fo

r su

ppor

t of

su

perr

egio

nal

con

sist

ency

and

coo

pera

tion

an

d p

ubl

ic a

ccep

tan

ce o

f pl

ans

and

pol

icie

s.

$is

res

ult

ap

par

entl

y re

%ec

ts t

he

nat

ure

of

dro

ugh

ts w

hic

h

o>

en a

&ec

t la

rge

area

s re

qu

irin

g a

coo

rdin

ated

su

pra

nat

i-

on

al a

pp

roac

h a

nd

pu

bli

c aw

aren

ess

of

vuln

erab

ilit

ies

and

risk

s.

Fro

m t

he

end

-use

rs’ p

oin

t o

f vi

ew, t

hem

atic

con

ten

t an

d a

re-

al c

over

age

wer

e th

e m

ost

cri

tica

l p

rod

uct

fea

ture

s, f

oll

o-

wed

by

spat

ial

reso

luti

on (

Fig

ure

4.3

.8).

Spa

tial

res

olu

tion

is

also

a m

atte

r o

f co

nce

rn f

or

this

car

togr

aph

ic p

rod

uct

sin

ce

it s

tro

ngl

y in

%u

ence

s th

e th

emat

ic c

on

ten

t th

at c

an b

e in

clu

-

ded

in

th

e m

ap.

No

n-e

nd

-use

rs a

lso

iden

ti'

ed t

he

them

atic

con

ten

t m

ost

cri

-

tica

l (F

igu

re 4

.3.9

), b

ut

asse

ssed

th

e m

ajo

rity

of

the

spec

i'c

pro

du

ct f

eatu

res

as l

ess

crit

ical

. H

ow

ever

, n

on

-en

d-u

sers

con

sid

ered

acc

ess

as f

ar m

ore

im

po

rtan

t, w

hic

h i

s o

bvi

ou

sly

a cr

itic

al i

ssu

e in

man

y le

ss d

evel

op

ed c

ou

ntr

ies

a&ec

ted

by

dro

ugh

t.

Page 61: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

61

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4F

igu

re 4

.3.4

: O

per

atio

nal

Ben

e'ts

of

Dro

ugh

t V

uln

erab

ilit

y

Map

(en

d-u

ser

app

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.3

.5:

Op

erat

ion

al B

ene'

ts o

f D

rou

ght

Vu

lner

abil

ity

Map

(n

on

-en

d-u

ser

app

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.

3.6:

St

rate

gic

Ben

e'ts

o

f D

rou

ght

Vu

lner

abil

ity

Map

(en

d-u

ser

app

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.

3.7:

St

rate

gic

Ben

e'ts

o

f D

rou

ght

Vu

lner

abil

ity

Map

(n

on

-en

d-u

ser

app

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.3

.8:

Cri

tica

lity

of

spec

i'c

feat

ure

s o

f D

rou

ght

Vu

l-

ner

abil

ity

Map

(en

d-u

ser

app

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.3

.9:

Cri

tica

lity

of

spec

i'c

feat

ure

s o

f D

rou

ght

Vu

l-

ner

abil

ity

Map

(n

on

-en

d-u

ser

app

rais

al)

Page 62: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

62

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 tecti

on

an

d m

on

ito

rin

g

Wal

ther

Cam

aro,

Sar

a S

te#

enin

o an

d R

osse

lla

Vig

na

Fir

es h

ave

far

reac

hin

g im

pac

ts a

nd

can

dam

age

hig

hw

ays,

uti

liti

es,

bri

dge

s, r

eser

voir

s an

d w

ater

shed

s, a

gri-

bu

sin

ess,

ran

chin

g, t

imb

er o

per

atio

ns,

an

d c

om

mu

nit

y b

uil

din

gs. $

e

eco

no

mic

an

d s

oci

al i

mp

acts

of

dam

age

fro

m '

res

incl

ud

e

job

lo

sses

, d

estr

oye

d

nat

ura

l re

sou

rces

, b

urd

enso

me

re-

bu

ild

ing

cost

s, a

nd

lim

ited

tra

nsp

ort

atio

n o

pti

on

s. F

urt

her

-

mo

re '

res

can

res

ult

in

lo

ss o

f li

fe (

Ara

gon

eses

an

d R

ábad

e,

2008

). F

or

exam

ple

, in

Sp

ain

in

199

4, 4

1 vi

ctim

s lo

st t

hei

r

live

s d

ue

to fo

rest

're

s, 2

0 o

f w

ho

m d

ied

in a

sin

gle

're

(M

il-

lare

s, 2

5,93

0 h

ecta

res)

an

d 1

5 in

th

ree

're

s (M

on

tem

ayo

r,

St.

Mat

eu d

e B

ages

an

d A

lica

nte

, 45

.000

hec

tare

s),

wh

ile

in

2003

're

s ca

use

d t

he

dea

th o

f se

ven

peo

ple

. A

vail

able

lit

-

erat

ure

on

ep

idem

iolo

gy,

eco

no

mic

s an

d w

ild

're

s p

rovi

de

esse

nti

al i

nfo

rmat

ion

on

eva

luat

ing

hea

lth

co

sts

asso

ciat

ed

wit

h '

re e

ven

ts.

$e

key

hea

lth

ou

tco

mes

rel

ated

to

wil

d-

're

s ar

e m

ort

alit

y, r

estr

icte

d a

ctiv

ity

day

s (i

ncl

ud

ing

wo

rk

day

s lo

st),

ho

spit

al a

dm

issi

on

s, r

esp

irat

ory

sym

pto

ms,

an

d

ad h

oc

self

-tre

atm

ent

by

ind

ivid

ual

s. I

nco

nsi

sten

t re

sult

s ar

e

sho

wn

als

o b

etw

een

co

nve

nti

on

al a

nd

wil

d'

re-r

elat

ed P

M

epid

emio

log

y st

ud

ies

(Ko

chi

et a

l., 2

009)

.

Clim

ate

change im

pact

Fir

e h

as b

een

id

enti

'ed

by

the

inte

rnat

ion

al c

om

mu

nit

y

as a

n i

mp

ort

ant

vari

able

fo

r th

e G

lob

al C

lim

ate

Ob

serv

ing

Syst

em a

nd

an

ess

enti

al c

lim

ate

vari

able

fo

r th

e F

ram

ewo

rk

Co

nve

nti

on

on

Cli

mat

e C

han

ge.

Fir

e is

an

im

po

rtan

t p

ro-

cess

wit

hin

mo

st t

erre

stri

al b

iom

es, a

nd

th

e re

leas

e o

f ga

ses

and

par

ticu

late

mat

ter

du

rin

g b

iom

ass

bu

rnin

g is

an

imp

or-

tan

t co

ntr

ibu

tor

to t

he

chem

ical

rea

ctio

ns

and

ph

ysic

al p

ro-

cess

es t

akin

g p

lace

in

th

e at

mo

sph

ere.

Fir

e is

a s

ign

i'ca

nt

and

co

nti

nu

ou

s fa

cto

r in

th

e ec

olo

gy

of s

avan

nas

, bo

real

for-

ests

an

d t

un

dra

, an

d p

lays

a c

entr

al r

ole

in

def

ore

stat

ion

in

tro

pic

al a

nd

su

b-t

rop

ical

reg

ion

s. I

n a

dd

itio

n, o

n a

per

iod

ic

bas

is,

exte

nsi

ve '

res

occ

ur

in m

any

tem

per

ate

bio

mes

su

ch

as f

ore

sts,

gra

ssla

nd

s, a

nd

ch

apar

ral.

Mo

nit

ori

ng

the

loca

-

tio

n a

nd

are

al e

xten

t o

f b

iom

ass

bu

rnin

g an

d i

ts a

sso

ciat

ed

e&ec

ts a

re i

mp

ort

ant

in t

he

con

text

of

the

goal

s an

d o

bje

c-

tive

s o

f d

i&er

ent

rese

arch

pro

gram

s:

Fir

e ch

ange

s th

e p

hys

ical

sta

te o

f ve

geta

tio

n, r

elea

sin

g a

vari

ety

of

gree

nh

ou

se g

ases

in

to t

he

atm

osp

her

e. $

ere

is p

rese

ntl

y gr

eat

un

cert

ain

ty a

s to

th

e m

agn

itu

de

of

the

sou

rces

an

d s

ink

s o

f th

ese

gree

nh

ou

se g

ases

. F

or

ex-

amp

le,

the

net

an

nu

al r

elea

se o

f ca

rbo

n i

nto

th

e at

mo

-

sph

ere

du

e to

cle

arin

g an

d c

on

vers

ion

of

tro

pic

al f

or-

ests

fo

r ag

ricu

ltu

ral

pu

rpo

ses

(wh

ere

bio

mas

s b

urn

ing

is a

key

to

ol

use

d i

n t

he

con

vers

ion

pro

cess

) is

th

ou

ght

to c

on

trib

ute

ap

pro

xim

atel

y 30

% t

o t

he

net

an

nu

al

incr

ease

in

th

e co

nce

ntr

atio

n o

f at

mo

sph

eric

CO

2. In

add

itio

n, t

her

e is

an

in

tere

st i

n c

han

ges

in r

egio

nal

're

regi

mes

un

der

di&

eren

t cl

imat

e ch

ange

sce

nar

ios.

Fo

r

exam

ple

, arg

um

ents

hav

e b

een

mad

e th

at a

n in

crea

se in

aver

age

air

tem

per

atu

re i

n n

ort

her

n l

atit

ud

es w

ill

lead

to a

dec

reas

e in

th

e n

atu

ral

're

ret

urn

in

terv

al a

nd

an

incr

ease

in

're

sev

erit

y in

bo

real

fo

rest

an

d t

un

dra

eco

-

syst

ems.

$e

rele

ase

of

chem

ical

ly-r

eact

ive

gase

s d

uri

ng

bio

-

mas

s b

urn

ing

stro

ngl

y in

%u

ence

s ch

emic

al p

roce

sses

wit

hin

th

e tr

op

osp

her

e. I

n t

rop

ical

reg

ion

s, b

iom

ass

bu

rnin

g h

as b

een

sh

ow

n t

o s

tro

ngl

y in

%u

ence

reg

ion

al

and

glo

bal

dis

trib

uti

on

s o

f tr

op

osp

her

ic o

zon

e an

d h

as

bee

n r

elat

ed t

o a

cid

dep

osi

tio

n.

Stu

die

s h

ave

sho

wn

that

in

ten

sive

bio

mas

s b

urn

ing

asso

ciat

ed w

ith

nat

u-

rall

y o

ccu

rrin

g fo

rest

're

s, d

efo

rest

atio

n p

ract

ices

an

d

sava

nn

a m

anag

emen

t, a

re m

ajo

r so

urc

es o

f tr

ace

gase

s

such

as

NO

, C

O2,

CO

, O

3, N

Ox,

N2O

, N

H3,

SOx,

CH

4,

oth

er n

on

-met

han

e h

ydro

carb

on

s, a

s w

ell

as a

n a

bu

n-

dan

t so

urc

e o

f ae

roso

ls (

Stit

h e

t al

., 19

81; C

rutz

en e

t al

.,

1985

; Fis

hm

an e

t al

., 19

86; A

nd

reae

et

al.,

1988

; Bro

wel

l

et a

l., 1

988;

Kau

fman

et

al.,

1992

). P

reli

min

ary

glo

bal

esti

mat

es i

nd

icat

e th

at a

nn

ual

bio

mas

s b

urn

ing

may

be

asso

ciat

ed w

ith

38

% o

f th

e o

zon

e in

th

e tr

op

osp

her

e;

32 %

of

glo

bal

car

bo

n m

on

oxi

de;

mo

re t

han

20

% o

f

the

wo

rld

‘s

hyd

roge

n,

no

n-m

eth

ane

hyd

roca

rbo

ns,

met

hyl

ch

lori

de

and

oxi

des

of

nit

roge

n,

and

ap

pro

xi-

mat

ely

39 %

of

the

par

ticu

late

org

anic

car

bo

n (

Lev

ine,

1991

; An

dre

ae, 1

991)

. Alt

ho

ugh

th

ese

esti

mat

es in

clu

de

a w

ide

ran

ge o

f u

nce

rtai

nty

, it

is b

eco

min

g ev

iden

t th

at

thes

e em

issi

on

s m

ay b

e as

im

po

rtan

t to

glo

bal

atm

o-

sph

eric

ch

emis

try

as i

nd

ust

rial

act

ivit

ies

in t

he

dev

el-

op

ed w

orl

d (

Cru

tzen

et

al.,

1985

; Cru

tzen

an

d A

nd

reae

,

1990

).

$e

resu

lts

of

nat

ura

l '

res

or

pro

cess

es a

sso

ciat

ed w

ith

're

s a&

ect

the

exch

ange

of

ener

gy

and

wat

er b

etw

een

lan

d s

urf

aces

an

d t

he

atm

osp

her

e. F

ires

can

res

ult

in

a d

ecre

ase

in t

he

surf

ace

alb

edo

an

d i

ncr

ease

in

th

e

amo

un

t o

f so

lar

rad

iati

on

rea

chin

g th

e so

il la

yer

at lo

cal

and

reg

ion

al s

cale

s. R

emo

val

of

the

pla

nt

can

op

y d

ur-

ing

're

red

uce

s th

e am

ou

nt

of

evap

otr

ansp

irat

ion

an

d

typ

ical

ly r

esu

lts

in h

igh

er w

ater

ru

no

&.

In t

rop

ical

fo

r-

ests

, lan

d c

lear

ing

asso

ciat

ed w

ith

bio

mas

s b

urn

ing

has

resu

lted

in

a s

ign

i'ca

nt

red

uct

ion

of

tota

l p

reci

pit

atio

n

in t

he

regi

on

, an

d a

n i

ncr

ease

in

th

e su

rfac

e ru

no

&, s

oil

ero

sio

n a

nd

riv

er s

edim

enta

tio

n.

Fir

es h

ave

seve

ral

dir

ect

and

in

dir

ect

e&ec

ts o

n t

er-

rest

rial

eco

syst

ems.

Fir

st,

the

pat

tern

of

're

(w

hic

h i

n-

clu

des

its

sp

atia

l d

istr

ibu

tio

n,

're

ret

urn

in

terv

al,

and

seve

rity

of

bu

rnin

g) d

irec

tly

con

tro

ls p

lan

t co

mm

un

ity

dev

elo

pm

ent

wit

hin

th

ose

lan

dsc

apes

wh

ere

bio

mas

s

bu

rnin

g o

ccu

rs. F

ire

favo

urs

th

ose

pla

nts

an

d t

ree

spe-

cies

wh

ich

hav

e d

evel

op

ed a

dap

tati

on

s to

're

(e.

g., v

eg-

etat

ive

rep

rod

uct

ion

an

d '

re-r

esis

tan

t se

eds

and

co

nes

)

and

eli

min

ates

th

ose

sp

ecie

s w

hic

h a

re l

ess

resi

stan

t to

're

. Sec

on

d, '

re i

nd

irec

tly

a&ec

ts p

lan

t co

mm

un

ity

de-

velo

pm

ent

in a

var

iety

of

way

s, i

ncl

ud

ing

(a)

add

itio

n

of

key

pla

nt

nu

trie

nts

th

rou

gh a

sh f

erti

liza

tio

n o

r in

-

crea

sed

so

il d

eco

mp

osi

tio

n;

(b)

dep

leti

on

of

key

pla

nt

Page 63: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

63

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4n

utr

ien

ts th

rou

gh s

urf

ace

run

o&

or

incr

ease

d s

oil

leac

h-

ing;

an

d (

c) a

lter

ing

soil

tem

per

atu

re a

nd

mo

istu

re. F

i-

nal

ly, c

hem

ical

rea

ctio

ns

of

gase

s re

leas

ed b

y '

re le

ad t

o

an in

crea

se in

atm

osp

her

ic o

zon

e an

d t

he

dep

osi

tio

n o

f

acid

ic c

om

po

un

ds

do

wn

win

d f

rom

're

s, w

hic

h i

n t

urn

can

a&

ect

the

ph

ysio

log

y o

f p

lan

ts a

nd

eco

syst

ems

in

thes

e ar

eas.

$er

efo

re, f

or

seve

ral r

easo

ns,

're

det

ecti

on

and

mo

nit

ori

ng

are

con

sid

ered

nec

essa

ry e

lem

ents

, an

d

're

man

agem

ent

is c

on

sid

ered

a c

on

seq

uen

tial

cru

cial

issu

e (V

an L

iero

p, 2

009)

.

Fire M

anagem

ent

Sin

ce f

ore

sts

are

eco

syst

ems,

th

e m

ain

ten

ance

of

fore

sts

is

vita

l n

ot

on

ly f

or

the

tree

s th

emse

lves

, b

ut

also

fo

r th

e su

s-

tain

abil

ity

of

the

oth

er f

orm

s o

f li

fe t

hat

dep

end

on

fo

rest

s.

Fo

rest

s ar

e p

rovi

der

s o

f en

viro

nm

enta

l ser

vice

s: t

hey

pro

tect

the

soil

fro

m d

eser

ti'

cati

on

an

d a

vala

nch

es, f

urn

ish

a n

atu

-

ral b

arri

er a

gain

st w

ind

, att

ract

in

crea

sin

g to

uri

sm a

nd

pla

y

an i

mp

ort

ant

role

in

th

e li

veli

ho

od

s o

f p

oo

r p

eop

le.

$er

e-

fore

th

e re

aso

ns

for

pro

tect

ing

fore

sts

fro

m '

re,

po

llu

tio

n

and

oth

er p

oss

ible

dam

ages

are

ob

vio

us;

fo

rest

s an

d t

hei

r

stru

ctu

ral

and

bio

logi

cal

div

ersi

ty a

re a

n i

mp

ort

ant

par

t o

f

the

nat

ura

l en

viro

nm

ent.

Leg

isla

tio

n p

asse

d i

n s

om

e co

un

trie

s p

rovi

des

evi

den

ce t

hat

fore

sts

con

stit

ute

a m

ost

im

po

rtan

t se

mi-

ren

ewab

le r

eso

urc

e

and

en

cou

rage

res

earc

her

s to

fost

er a

ctiv

itie

s o

n fo

rest

eco

sys-

tem

s, a

s w

ell a

s ed

uca

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g o

n fo

rest

ry. $

e st

ron

g

imp

ort

ance

of

fore

sts

and

fo

rest

ry p

oli

cy h

as b

een

acc

epte

d

by a

ll t

he

Eu

rop

ean

mem

ber

sta

tes.

An

acc

ura

te a

nal

ysis

of

the

rela

tio

nsh

ip b

etw

een

hu

man

s an

d f

ore

sts

is e

ssen

tial

fo

r

asse

ssin

g '

re i

nci

den

ce, i

gnit

ion

an

d m

anag

emen

t. S

ince

hu

-

man

s ar

e co

nsi

der

ed p

rim

aril

y re

spo

nsi

ble

fo

r fo

rest

're

oc-

curr

ence

s, t

hey

mu

st b

e co

nsi

der

ed a

s im

po

rtan

t co

mp

on

ents

of

any

're

man

agem

ent

pla

nn

ing.

A b

alan

ced

're

man

age-

men

t sy

stem

is

mad

e u

p o

f fo

ur

elem

ents

: p

reve

nti

on

, p

re-

par

edn

ess,

su

pp

ress

ion

an

d r

ecov

ery

(WW

F, 2

003)

. Eac

h e

le-

men

t is

eq

ual

ly im

po

rtan

t an

d d

irec

tly

rela

ted

to

th

e o

ther

s.

$e

pre

ven

tio

n a

nd

pre

par

edn

ess

sch

eme

eval

uat

es t

he

vul-

ner

abil

ity

of

the

terr

ito

ry t

o '

re.

Cri

tica

l p

erio

ds

and

are

as

on

wh

ere

fore

st '

res

cou

ld b

e m

ore

lik

ely

to o

ccu

r ar

e ev

alu

-

ated

no

t o

nly

fro

m e

xper

ien

ce b

ut

also

usi

ng

too

ls s

uch

as

GIS

map

pin

g. A

reas

at

hig

h '

re r

isk

sh

ou

ld b

e su

bje

cted

to

spec

i'c

pre

ven

tive

mea

sure

s o

f la

nd

-use

pla

nn

ing:

e.g

. fu

el

load

s ca

n b

e m

od

i'ed

fo

r h

azar

d r

edu

ctio

n. A

're

man

age-

men

t sy

stem

sh

ou

ld b

e co

nsi

der

ed a

s an

in

tegr

al p

art

of

the

lan

dsc

ape

pla

nn

ing

in a

ll a

reas

at

hig

h r

isk

of

fore

st '

res.

Mo

reo

ver,

a '

re m

anag

emen

t p

oli

cy w

ill

be

mo

re e

&ec

tive

on

ly i

f m

ost

of

the

reso

urc

es a

nd

e&

ort

s ar

e em

plo

yed

at

the

earl

y st

age

of

the

're

'gh

tin

g ch

ain

(W

WF,

200

3).

Fir

e

risk

ass

essm

ent

is a

cri

tica

l par

t o

f '

re p

reve

nti

on

, th

eref

ore

pre

-'re

pla

nn

ing

acti

viti

es r

equ

ire

ob

ject

ive

too

ls t

o m

on

i-

tor

wh

en a

nd

wh

ere

a '

re i

s li

kel

y to

occ

ur,

or

wo

uld

hav

e

mo

re n

egat

ive

imp

acts

. $e

ob

ject

ive

of a

ded

icat

ed F

ire

De-

tect

ion

an

d M

on

ito

rin

g Sy

stem

, o

n t

he

oth

er h

and

, is

ear

ly

war

nin

g, m

on

ito

rin

g, a

nd

ass

essm

ent

of

actu

al '

res,

usi

ng

curr

ent

eart

h-o

bse

rvin

g te

chn

olo

gies

.

An

ad

van

ced

sch

eme

for

're

ris

k a

sses

smen

t w

as d

evel

op

ed

by

Ch

uvi

eco

et

al. (

2010

), w

hic

h i

ncl

ud

es t

he

two

asp

ects

of

tota

l ri

sk:

're

dan

ger

and

vu

lner

abil

ity.

$e

mo

del

is

bas

ed

on

in

pu

t va

riab

les

of

're

dan

ger,

co

nsi

der

ing

the

two

mai

n

sou

rces

of

ign

itio

n,

hu

man

an

d n

atu

ral,

and

vu

lner

abil

ity

wh

ich

is t

he

asse

ssm

ent

of

po

ten

tial

dam

age

cau

sed

by

a '

re

(see

Tab

le 4

.4.1

). $

ree

di&

eren

t vu

lner

abil

ity

inp

ut

vari

-

able

s ar

e ta

ken

into

acc

ou

nt

in t

he

wo

rk p

rese

nte

d in

Ch

uvi

-

eco

et

al.,

(201

0): t

he

soci

o-ec

onom

ic v

alu

es, t

he

deg

rad

atio

n

pote

nti

al a

nd

th

e la

nd

scap

e va

lue.

$e

'n

al o

bje

ctiv

e ca

n b

e

de'

ned

in

a G

IS s

yste

m d

isp

layi

ng

're

ris

k m

aps

at r

egio

nal

scal

es,

wh

ich

in

tegr

ates

tw

o g

rou

ps

of

're

ris

k c

on

dit

ion

s

thu

s cr

eati

ng

a gr

ou

p o

f fo

ur

risk

cla

sses

, u

sin

g lo

cal

info

r-

mat

ion

an

d g

eoin

form

atio

n.

$e

fire

ris

k a

sses

smen

t m

eth

od

pre

sen

ted

in

th

e C

hu

viec

o

pap

er is

gen

eral

ly b

ased

on

co

nsi

der

ing

fire

occ

urr

ence

pro

b-

abil

ity

and

po

ten

tial

dam

age.

$e

'rs

t el

emen

t, fi

re d

ange

r,

con

sid

ers

the

po

ten

tial

th

at a

fire

wil

l ig

nit

e an

d p

rop

agat

e.

$e

two

mai

n s

ou

rces

of

ign

itio

n, h

um

an a

nd

nat

ura

l, m

ust

bo

th b

e ta

ken

in

to a

cco

un

t in

cal

cula

tin

g th

e '

re d

ange

r.

Ho

wev

er w

hil

e h

um

an s

ou

rces

of

ign

itio

n a

re u

nd

ou

bte

dly

the

mo

st c

om

mo

n a

nd

di&

use

wo

rld

wid

e (F

AO

, 200

7), fi

res

cau

sed

by

ligh

tnin

g ar

e al

so v

ery

rele

van

t in

so

me

regi

on

s.

In a

dd

itio

n t

o i

gnit

ion

so

urc

es, t

he

mo

istu

re s

tatu

s o

f p

lan

ts

has

bee

n j

ud

ged

nec

essa

ry,

sin

ce p

lan

ts a

re t

he

mai

n i

gni-

tio

n m

ater

ial i

n a

fo

rest

fire

. $e

pro

pag

atio

n c

om

po

nen

t o

f

fire

dan

ger

is a

sso

ciat

ed w

ith

th

e p

ote

nti

al f

or

fire

sp

read

,

wh

ich

is

a re

sult

of

the

qu

anti

ty a

nd

sp

read

of

fuel

, in

ad

di-

tio

n t

o f

avo

ura

ble

ter

rain

an

d w

eath

er c

on

dit

ion

s (m

ain

ly

win

d s

pee

d).

$e

seco

nd

gro

up

of

fire

ris

k c

on

dit

ion

s ca

n b

e as

soci

ated

wit

h t

he

vuln

erab

ilit

y co

mp

on

ent,

wh

ich

is

the

asse

ssm

ent

of

po

ten

tial

dam

age

cau

sed

by

the

fire

an

d i

mp

acts

on

th

e

exp

ose

d v

alu

es. F

or

Ch

uvi

eco

et

al. (

2010

), v

uln

erab

ilit

y ca

n

be

div

ided

in

th

ree

asp

ects

, as

sta

ted

ab

ove

: so

cio-

econ

omic

valu

es

(pro

per

ties

, w

oo

d

reso

urc

es,

recr

eati

on

al

imp

or-

tan

ce,

carb

on

sto

cks,

etc

.),

deg

rad

atio

n p

oten

tial

(so

il a

nd

vege

tati

on

co

nd

itio

ns)

, an

d l

and

scap

e va

lue

(un

iqu

enes

s,

con

serv

atio

n s

tatu

s, e

tc.)

.

Fir

e d

ange

r is

de'

ned

as:

“th

e re

sult

ant,

o>

en e

xpre

ssed

as

an i

nd

ex, o

f b

oth

co

nst

ant

and

var

iab

le f

acto

rs a

&ec

tin

g th

e

ince

pti

on

, sp

read

, an

d d

i#cu

lty

of

con

tro

l o

f '

res

and

th

e

dam

age

they

cau

se”;

Fir

e h

aza

rd i

s “a

mea

sure

of

that

par

t o

f th

e '

re d

ange

r co

n-

trib

ute

d b

y fu

els

avai

lab

le f

or

bu

rnin

g”;

Fir

e ri

sk i

s “(

1) t

he

chan

ce o

f '

re s

tart

ing

as d

eter

min

ed b

y

the

pre

sen

ce a

nd

act

ivit

y o

f ca

usa

tive

age

nts

, (2)

a c

ausa

tive

agen

t, (

3) a

nu

mb

er r

elat

ed t

o t

he

po

ten

tial

of

're

bra

nd

s to

wh

ich

a g

iven

are

a w

ill

be

exp

ose

d d

uri

ng

the

rate

d d

ay”

(FA

O, 1

986)

.

Page 64: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

64

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4o

f so

me

vari

able

s ch

ange

alm

ost

co

nti

nu

ou

sly

du

rin

g th

e

day

wh

ile

oth

er v

aria

ble

s va

ry n

oti

ceab

le o

nly

ove

r a

lon

g

per

iod

: wee

k, m

on

th o

r ev

en y

ears

. $er

efo

re, v

aria

ble

s h

ave

bee

n c

lass

i'ed

acc

ord

ingl

y as

sh

ort

-ter

m a

nd

lo

ng-

term

vari

able

s. E

vap

otr

ansp

irat

ion

, re

lati

ve h

um

idit

y, w

ind

an

d

air

tem

per

atu

re o

&er

exa

mp

les

of

vari

able

s cl

earl

y ch

ange

-

able

du

rin

g th

e d

ay. F

uel

typ

e, '

re h

isto

ry, t

ota

l p

op

ula

tio

n,

top

ogr

aph

y, s

oil

typ

e an

d p

roxi

mit

y to

ro

ads

are

vari

able

s

wit

h r

ou

ghly

sta

ble

beh

avio

ur

ove

r sh

ort

per

iod

s (F

igu

re

4.4.

1).

Alt

ern

ativ

ely,

an

oth

er p

oss

ible

way

to

co

llec

t co

ntr

ibu

tin

g

vari

able

s is

to

co

nsi

der

th

eir

nat

ure

. Var

iab

les

cou

ld d

epen

d

on

met

eoro

logi

cal

con

dit

ion

s, v

eget

atio

n c

on

dit

ion

s o

r h

u-

man

beh

avio

ur.

$e

term

s d

ange

r, h

aza

rd a

nd

ris

k h

ave

o>

en b

een

use

d

in a

n i

nco

nsi

sten

t an

d c

on

fusi

ng

man

ner

in

lit

erat

ure

on

wil

d'

res.

$ey

are

use

d w

ith

ou

t a

clea

r ag

reem

ent

amo

ng

spec

iali

sts,

co

un

trie

s o

r la

ngu

age

trad

itio

ns

(Ch

uvi

eco

et

al,

2003

). $

is la

ck o

f cl

ear

de'

nit

ion

s o

f th

e te

rms

cou

ld e

asil

y

bec

om

e an

ob

stac

le t

o '

re r

isk

res

earc

h a

nd

man

agem

ent.

A

rigo

rou

s an

alys

is o

f '

re r

isk

ass

essm

ent

mu

st b

e su

pp

ort

ed

by

clea

r te

rmin

olo

gy

in o

rder

to

en

able

res

ult

s to

be

un

der

-

stan

dab

le a

nd

sh

area

ble

th

rou

gho

ut

the

com

mu

nit

y o

f w

ild

-

're

res

earc

her

s an

d s

pec

iali

sts.

In t

his

co

nte

xt,

Bac

hm

ann

an

d A

llgö

wer

(20

01)

sugg

este

d

the

term

+re

dan

ger

as u

sele

ss f

or

're

res

earc

h b

ecau

se i

t

refe

rs t

o a

n a

bst

ract

co

nce

pt

bas

ed o

n p

erso

nal

op

inio

ns.

$ey

des

crib

ed t

he

term

as

bei

ng

de'

ned

by

sub

ject

ive

hu

-

man

an

d s

oci

etal

per

cep

tio

ns

and

ass

essm

ents

of

even

ts a

nd

ou

tco

mes

th

at a

re c

on

sid

ered

har

mfu

l. B

esid

es, t

hey

de'

ned

the

term

+re

ha

zard

as

a sy

no

nym

fo

r th

e p

roce

ss o

f w

ild

-

're

s. $

us,

th

ey c

on

clu

ded

wit

h t

he

sugg

esti

on

of

an o

vera

ll

term

fo

r w

ild

're

s o

f +

re r

isk,

sin

ce i

t ta

kes

acc

ou

nt

of

the

pro

bab

ilit

y o

f a

wil

d'

re o

ccu

rrin

g at

a s

pec

i'ed

loca

tio

n a

nd

un

der

sp

eci'

c ci

rcu

mst

ance

s, t

oge

ther

wit

h i

ts e

xpec

ted

ef-

fect

s. A

pre

cise

de'

nit

ion

of

the

term

+re

ris

k fo

r fo

rest

're

rela

ted

res

earc

h w

as a

lso

de'

ned

by

FAO

(FA

O, 1

986)

.

Fir

e ri

sk r

equ

ires

id

enti

fyin

g an

d a

sses

sin

g p

ote

nti

ally

co

n-

trib

uti

ng

vari

able

s, r

efer

red

to

as

cau

sati

ve a

gen

ts. H

ow

ever

,

the

de'

nit

ion

an

d a

sses

smen

t o

f '

re r

isk

pre

sen

ts d

i&er

ent

mea

nin

gs in

di&

eren

t co

un

trie

s. T

rad

itio

nal

ly, f

ore

st '

re r

isk

has

bee

n c

om

pu

ted

at

a n

atio

nal

leve

l or

at lo

cal s

cale

s u

sin

g

di&

eren

t va

riab

les

and

ap

pro

ach

es.

$u

s, t

he

di&

eren

t d

ata

sou

rces

an

d m

eth

od

olo

gies

in

volv

ed le

ad t

o i

nd

ices

no

t im

-

med

iate

ly c

om

par

able

(Sa

n-M

igu

el-A

yan

z et

al.,

200

3).

$er

e ar

e se

vera

l va

riab

les

po

ten

tial

ly c

on

trib

uti

ng

to f

ore

st

're

ris

k a

sses

smen

t as

wel

l as

met

ho

ds

of

gro

up

ing

them

. A

po

ssib

le w

ay o

f co

llec

tio

n is

bas

ed o

n t

ime

vari

abil

ity.

Val

ues

Fa

ctor

Inp

ut

da

taM

eth

od

Hu

man

(V

ilar

et

al.,

2008

)

His

tori

cal o

ccu

r-

ren

ce

Lo

gist

ic

regr

essi

on

Lig

htn

ing

(Nie

to

et a

l., i

n p

ress

)

Dem

ogr

aph

ic d

ata

Veg

etat

ion

-DT

M

Dea

d f

uel

s

mo

istu

re c

on

ten

t

(Agu

ado

et

al.,

2007

)

Met

eoro

logi

cal d

ata

Lin

ear

regr

es-

sio

n a

nal

ysis

Liv

e fu

els

mo

is-

ture

co

nte

nt

(Ch

uvi

eco

et

al.,

2004

b; G

arci

a et

al.,

2008

)

Sate

llit

e im

ages

Stat

isti

cal

'tt

ing

Inve

rsio

n o

f

RT

M

Pro

pag

atio

n

dan

ger

(Mar

tín

Fer

nán

dez

et

al.,

2002

)

Fu

el t

ype

map

s

Met

eoro

logi

cal d

ata

Beh

ave

Sim

u-

lati

on

So

cio

-eco

no

mic

valu

es (

Ro

drí

guez

y Si

lva

et a

l.,

2007

)

Fo

rest

map

s

Rec

reat

ion

al a

reas

Qu

esti

on

nai

res

Em

pir

ical

mo

del

s

Deg

rad

atat

ion

po

ten

tial

So

il m

aps

Dig

ital

ter

rain

mo

del

Cli

mat

ic d

ata

Veg

etat

ion

map

s

Fie

ld s

tud

ies

Eco

logi

cal

mo

del

s

Qu

alit

ativ

e

cro

ss-t

abu

la-

tio

n

Lan

dsc

ape

valu

e

(Mar

tín

ez-V

ega

et. a

l., 2

007)

Pro

tect

ed a

reas

Lan

d c

ove

r

Lan

dsc

ape

pat

tern

Tab

le 4

.4.1

: In

pu

t fa

cto

rs f

or

the

fire

ris

k a

sses

smen

t sy

stem

(Ch

uvi

eco

et

al.,

2010

)

Fig

ure

4.4

.1: P

ote

nti

ally

co

ntr

ibu

tin

g va

riab

les

for

fore

st '

re

risk

ass

essm

ent

Page 65: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

65

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4F

ire

occ

urr

ence

s an

d p

rop

agat

ion

are

str

on

gly

rela

ted

to

par

ticu

lar

met

eoro

logi

cal

con

dit

ion

s. S

ola

r ra

dia

tio

n,

air

tem

per

atu

re,

rela

tive

hu

mid

ity,

pre

cip

itat

ion

, w

ind

(av

er-

age

spee

d,

turb

ule

nce

in

ten

sity

an

d d

irec

tio

n)

and

ver

tica

l

stru

ctu

re o

f th

e at

mo

sph

ere

are

the

mai

n c

on

trib

uti

ng

me-

teo

rolo

gica

l var

iab

les

(Vie

gas,

199

8). E

ach

of

thes

e va

riab

les

pla

ys a

rel

evan

t ro

le,

even

th

ou

gh t

hei

r co

nse

qu

enti

al h

igh

vari

abil

ity

mak

es t

hei

r m

anag

emen

t d

i#cu

lt.

Un

der

stan

din

g w

ater

ret

enti

on

in

pla

nts

an

d s

oil

is

bas

ic t

o

pre

dic

tin

g m

ois

ture

co

nte

nt

of

vege

tati

on

, an

d t

his

pla

ys a

n

imp

ort

ant

role

in

're

ign

itio

n a

nd

pro

pag

atio

n.

If m

eteo

-

rolo

gica

l co

nd

itio

ns

are

ign

ore

d,

the

mo

st s

ign

i'ca

nt

fac-

tors

a&

ecti

ng

the

amo

un

t o

f w

ater

hel

d a

nd

tra

nsp

ort

ed i

n

vege

tati

on

are

th

eir

chem

ical

co

mp

osi

tio

n,

inte

rnal

str

uc-

ture

an

d p

hys

ical

pro

pri

etie

s. $

is c

on

nec

tio

n i

s b

ette

r u

n-

der

sto

od

by

exam

inin

g th

e le

af s

tru

ctu

re a

t a

'n

e le

vel

of

det

ail.

$e

amo

un

t o

f m

ois

ture

hel

d i

n t

he

cell

wal

ls o

f fu

el

par

ticl

es i

s re

late

d t

o t

he

com

po

siti

on

an

d c

ryst

alli

ne

stru

c-

ture

of

the

wal

ls,

wh

erea

s li

qu

id w

ater

hel

d i

n t

he

cell

cav

i-

ties

is d

eter

min

ed b

y th

e la

rger

sca

le c

apil

lary

str

uct

ure

. $e

loss

of

mo

istu

re f

rom

th

e in

teri

or

of

the

leaf

is

pre

ven

ted

by

a tr

ansl

uce

nt

wax

y la

yer,

th

e cu

ticl

e. $

e p

igm

ent

chie

%y

resp

on

sib

le f

or

the

gree

n c

olo

ur

char

acte

rizi

ng

livi

ng

veg-

etat

ion

is

the

chlo

rop

hyl

l. L

igh

t p

assi

ng

thro

ugh

th

e u

pp

er

tiss

ues

of

the

leaf

is r

ecei

ved

by

chlo

rop

hyl

l mo

lecu

les

in t

he

pal

isad

e la

yer,

sp

ecia

lize

d f

or

ph

oto

syn

thes

is, t

he

pro

cess

by

wh

ich

pla

nt

cell

s p

rod

uce

usa

ble

ch

emic

al e

ner

gy

fro

m s

ola

r

ener

gy.

$e

ph

oto

syn

thes

is a

ctiv

ity

toge

ther

wit

h t

he

mo

is-

ture

co

nte

nt

has

bee

n u

sed

as

po

ssib

le i

nd

icat

ors

of

vege

ta-

tio

n s

tatu

s fo

r '

re s

usc

epti

bil

ity.

Wea

ther

co

nd

itio

ns

and

veg

etat

ion

sta

tus

are

bro

adly

in

-

volv

ed i

n '

re i

gnit

ion

an

d p

rop

agat

ion

. N

ever

thel

ess,

esp

e-

cial

ly i

n E

uro

pe,

th

e ca

use

s o

f m

ost

're

s ar

e d

irec

tly

lin

ked

to h

um

an b

ehav

iou

r. $

e p

rese

nce

of

sett

lem

ents

, ag

ricu

l-

tura

l b

urn

ing,

pyr

om

ania

cs,

bar

bec

ues

an

d c

igar

ette

s co

n-

trib

ute

to

th

e in

crea

sed

ris

k o

f ac

cid

enta

l '

res.

Val

ues

of

thes

e va

riab

les

are

pre

sen

t lo

ng-

term

an

d c

ou

ld b

e tr

eate

d

as s

tati

c. $

us,

th

e av

aila

bil

ity

of

anci

ent

dat

a is

ess

enti

al f

or

pro

vid

ing

reli

able

in

form

atio

n a

bo

ut

hu

man

-in

du

ced

in

ci-

den

ce o

n '

res.

Her

ea>

er v

aria

ble

s ch

ose

n i

n t

he

pro

ject

by

Ch

uvi

eco

et

al.

(201

0) a

re p

rese

nte

d a

nd

exp

lain

ed.

In m

ost

co

un

trie

s h

um

an a

ctiv

itie

s ar

e m

ain

ly r

esp

on

sib

le

for

're

ign

itio

n.

In M

edit

erra

nea

n a

reas

, h

um

an f

acto

rs

cau

se m

ore

th

an 9

0 %

of

're

s (L

eon

e et

al.,

200

3). I

n S

pai

n,

96.1

% o

f al

l '

res

are

hu

man

-in

du

ced

(D

irec

ció

n G

ener

al

de

Bio

div

ersi

dad

, 200

6). M

od

elli

ng

hu

man

beh

avio

ur,

bo

th

in s

pac

e an

d t

ime,

is

par

ticu

larl

y co

mp

lex.

$er

efo

re m

ore

freq

uen

t st

ud

ies

are

focu

sed

on

var

iab

les

rela

ted

to

lan

d u

se

or

lan

d u

se-c

han

ge (

rura

l ab

and

on

men

t, a

gric

ult

ura

l–fo

r-

est

inte

rfac

e o

r u

rban

–fo

rest

in

terf

ace)

, p

op

ula

tio

n t

ren

ds,

rura

l act

ivit

ies,

an

d p

ote

nti

al c

on

%ic

ts t

hat

may

lead

to

ven

-

gean

ces

or

arso

n (

Veg

a-G

arcí

a et

al.,

199

5; C

ard

ille

et

al.,

2001

; Leo

ne

et a

l., 2

003;

Mar

tín

ez e

t al

., 20

09).

$e

app

roac

h u

sed

to

co

nsi

der

hu

man

fac

tors

in

're

ris

k

asse

ssm

ent

has

bee

n c

om

mo

nly

bas

ed o

n s

tati

stic

al m

od

els,

wh

ich

hav

e at

tem

pte

d t

o e

xpla

in h

isto

rica

l h

um

an-c

ause

d

're

occ

urr

ence

fro

m a

set

of

ind

epen

den

t va

riab

les

(Mar

-

tell

et

al.,

1989

; C

ho

u e

t al

., 19

93;

Ch

uvi

eco

et

al.,

2003

;

Mar

tín

ez e

t al

., 20

04).

Fir

es a

sso

ciat

ed w

ith

neg

lige

nce

or

arso

n c

an b

e ap

pro

ach

ed b

y co

nsi

der

ing

dis

tan

ces

to r

oad

s

and

rai

lro

ads,

ele

ctri

city

po

wer

lin

es a

nd

mil

itar

y es

tab

lish

-

men

ts,

wh

ile

fact

ors

ass

oci

ated

wit

h r

ecre

atio

nal

lan

d u

se

can

be

app

roac

hed

usi

ng

the

pre

sen

ce o

f u

rban

–fo

rest

inte

r-

face

s, h

ote

ls, c

abin

s, a

nd

cam

pin

g si

tes.

Var

iab

les

exp

ress

ing

each

fac

tor

can

be

map

ped

at

a d

e'n

ed s

pat

ial

reso

luti

on

in t

he

're

ris

k a

sses

smen

t sy

stem

usi

ng

a w

ide

vari

ety

of

GIS

an

alys

is t

oo

ls.

$e

hu

man

co

mp

on

ent

is e

xpec

ted

to

be

stab

le f

or

a w

ho

le '

re s

easo

n. L

ogi

stic

reg

ress

ion

tec

hn

iqu

es

can

be

use

d t

o e

stim

ate

the

pro

bab

ilit

y o

f '

re o

ccu

rren

ce

fro

m s

oci

o-e

con

om

ic v

aria

ble

s. F

or

exam

ple

in

Ch

uvi

eco

et a

l (2

010)

th

e d

epen

den

t va

riab

le w

as t

he

nu

mb

er o

f '

res

cau

sed

by

hu

man

act

ivit

ies

in t

he

per

iod

199

0–20

04,

de-

rive

d f

rom

o#

cial

're

sta

tist

ics.

Ignitio

n p

ote

ntial fr

om

lig

htn

ing

In s

pit

e o

f th

e le

sser

im

po

rtan

ce o

f li

ghtn

ing

ove

r h

um

an

fact

ors

fo

r '

re i

gnit

ion

, li

ghtn

ing

stri

kes

are

als

o i

mp

ort

ant

fact

ors

to

co

nsi

der

in '

re d

ange

r es

tim

atio

n, s

ince

th

ey t

end

to b

urn

lar

ger

area

s, b

ecau

se t

hey

occ

ur

in m

ore

iso

late

d

and

ste

eper

are

as, a

nd

fre

qu

entl

y h

ave

nu

mer

ou

s si

mu

ltan

e-

ou

s ig

nit

ed s

po

ts, a

nd

th

eref

ore

are

mo

re d

i#cu

lt t

o c

on

tro

l

(Wo

tto

n a

nd

Mar

tell

, 20

05).

Sev

eral

stu

die

s h

ave

focu

sed

on

an

alyz

ing

the

geo

grap

hic

var

iab

les

that

are

mo

re p

ron

e

to c

ausi

ng

're

s d

ue

to l

igh

tnin

g, s

uch

as

top

ogr

aph

y (D

íaz-

Ava

los

et a

l., 2

001)

, st

rik

e p

ola

rity

(L

ath

am a

nd

Sch

liet

er,

1989

) an

d fu

el m

ois

ture

co

nte

nt (

Wo

tto

n a

nd

Mar

tell

, 200

5).

Ch

uvi

eco

et

al.

(201

0) a

nal

yzed

th

e st

ruct

ura

l fa

cto

rs a

s-

soci

ated

wit

h h

isto

rica

l re

cord

s o

f '

res

cau

sed

by

ligh

tnin

g

by

com

par

ing

spat

ial

pat

tern

s o

f a&

ecte

d a

nd

no

n-a

&ec

ted

area

s. $

e d

epen

den

t va

riab

le i

n t

his

cas

e w

as t

he

nu

mb

er

of

're

s ca

use

d b

y li

ghtn

ing

du

rin

g th

e lo

nge

st p

oss

ible

tim

e

per

iod

(w

hen

bo

th l

igh

tnin

g so

urc

es a

nd

're

sta

tist

ics

wer

e

avai

lab

le),

wh

ile

the

ind

epen

den

t va

riab

les

wer

e th

e to

tal

nu

mb

er o

f li

ghtn

ing

stri

kes

, ve

geta

tio

n a

nd

ter

rain

ch

arac

-

teri

stic

s, m

ois

ture

co

des

der

ived

fro

m t

he

U.S

. Nat

ion

al F

ire

Dan

ger

Rat

ing

Syst

em (

FD

RS,

Bra

dsh

aw e

t al

., 19

83),

an

d

the

Can

adia

n F

ore

st F

ire

Wea

ther

In

dex

(F

WI,

Van

Wag

ner

,

Page 66: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

66

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 1987

). $

e an

alys

is w

as r

estr

icte

d t

o d

aily

met

eoro

logi

cal

dat

abas

e w

ith

at

3 k

m ×

3 k

m r

eso

luti

on

an

d f

or

the

pe-

rio

d o

f 20

02–

2004

. In

a s

imil

ar m

ann

er t

o t

he

stu

dy

of

hu

-

man

fac

tors

, a l

ogi

stic

reg

ress

ion

mo

del

was

use

d t

o p

red

ict

and

exp

lain

his

tori

cal

're

occ

urr

ence

cau

sed

by

ligh

tnin

g.

In t

his

cas

e, a

pu

re b

inar

y va

riab

le w

as t

aken

in

to a

cco

un

t

('re

/no

t '

re).

$e

ou

tpu

ts o

f th

e m

od

els

sho

wed

go

od

cla

s-

si'

cati

on

res

ult

s, w

ith

70

% o

f th

e ce

lls

corr

ectl

y cl

assi

'ed

.

$e

mai

n i

nd

icat

ive

vari

able

was

th

e n

um

ber

of

dry

sto

rms

(wit

h le

ss t

han

2 m

m r

ain

fall

).

Ignitio

n p

ote

ntial associa

ted w

ith s

tatu

s o

f fu

el

mois

ture

conte

nt

Fu

el m

ois

ture

co

nte

nt

(FM

C)

is a

cri

tica

l var

iab

le fo

r es

tim

at-

ing

ign

itio

n a

nd

're

pro

pag

atio

n d

ange

r, s

ince

th

e am

ou

nt

of

wat

er i

n t

he

vege

tati

on

is

inve

rsel

y re

late

d t

o i

gnit

ion

po

ten

-

tial

an

d r

ate

of

spre

ad (

Nel

son

, 20

01).

Fo

llow

ing

a co

mm

on

app

roac

h i

n f

ore

st '

re l

iter

atu

re,

the

esti

mat

ion

of

FM

C c

an

be

div

ided

, as

in C

hu

viec

o e

t al

. (20

10),

in

ter

ms

of

dea

d a

nd

live

co

mp

on

ents

. $e

form

er i

s es

tim

ated

fro

m m

eteo

rolo

gi-

cal v

aria

ble

s w

hil

e th

e la

ter

fro

m s

atel

lite

imag

es.

$e

esti

mat

ion

of

FM

C o

f d

ead

mat

eria

ls ly

ing

on

th

e fo

rest

%o

or

(lea

ves,

bra

nch

es,

and

deb

ris)

is

incl

ud

ed i

n m

ost

op

-

erat

ion

al '

re d

ange

r ra

tin

g sy

stem

s (C

amia

et

al.,

2003

). I

t

is m

ost

co

mm

on

ly e

stim

ated

fro

m m

eteo

rolo

gica

l var

iab

les,

sin

ce d

ead

fu

els

chan

ge t

hei

r w

ater

co

nte

nt

in p

aral

lel

wit

h

atm

osp

her

ic c

on

dit

ion

s. W

eath

er c

han

ges

a&ec

t th

e d

egre

e

of

wat

er e

vap

ora

tio

n a

nd

ab

sorp

tio

n,

esp

ecia

lly

tem

per

a-

ture

, ra

infa

ll a

nd

win

d s

pee

d (

Vin

ey,

1991

). $

e in

dep

en-

den

t va

riab

les

in t

his

cas

e w

ere

two

mo

istu

re c

od

es r

ou

tin

ely

use

d i

n '

re d

ange

r es

tim

atio

n: t

he

Fin

e F

uel

Mo

istu

re C

od

e

(FF

MC

) an

d t

he

10-h

co

de,

bei

ng

par

t o

f th

e C

anad

ian

an

d

US

're

dan

ger

syst

ems,

res

pec

tive

ly.

Sim

ilar

res

ult

s w

ere

ob

tain

ed f

rom

th

e tw

o m

ois

ture

co

des

, b

ut

'n

ally

th

e 10

-h

cod

e w

as s

elec

ted

, sin

ce it

do

es n

ot

req

uir

e w

ind

sp

eed

as

an

inp

ut

and

th

eref

ore

it is

eas

ier

to c

om

pu

te. O

nce

th

e em

pir

i-

cal

rela

tio

ns

wer

e es

tab

lish

ed,

they

wer

e ex

ten

ded

to

a g

rid

of

1 k

m ×

1 k

m r

eso

luti

on

, in

terp

ola

ted

fro

m t

he

dat

a o

f th

e

Eu

rop

ean

Cen

tre

for

Med

ium

Ran

ge W

eath

er F

ore

cast

ing

(EC

MW

F)

usi

ng

loca

l alg

ori

thm

s.

Fo

r th

e es

tim

atio

n o

f F

MC

of

live

sp

ecie

s ve

geta

tio

n,

sate

l-

lite

rem

ote

sen

sin

g ca

n b

e u

sed

as

inp

ut.

$e

use

of

sate

llit

e

dat

a in

liv

e F

MC

est

imat

ion

has

bee

n d

iscu

ssed

by

di&

eren

t

auth

ors

in

rec

ent

year

s (C

hu

viec

o e

t al

., 20

04;

Dan

son

an

d

Bo

wye

r, 2

004;

Mak

i et

al.,

2004

; Den

nis

on

et

al.,

2005

; Ria

ňo

et a

l. 20

05;

Sto

w e

t al

. 20

05).

In

sp

ite

of

the

di#

cult

y o

f d

e-

term

inin

g th

e in

%u

ence

of

wat

er a

bso

rpti

on

ove

r o

ther

fac

-

tors

th

at a

&ec

t p

lan

t re

%ec

tan

ce,

seve

ral

stu

die

s h

ave

fou

nd

goo

d r

elat

ion

ship

s, e

spec

iall

y in

gra

ssla

nd

s an

d s

om

e sh

rub

spec

ies.

An

ap

pro

ach

to

est

imat

ing

FM

C o

f li

ve s

pec

ies

is b

ased

on

the

inve

rsio

n o

f si

mu

lati

on

mo

del

s o

f th

e ra

dia

tive

tra

nsf

er

fun

ctio

n (

RT

M)

(Pin

ty e

t al

., 20

04).

$e

inp

uts

are

an

8-d

ay

com

po

site

of

the

'rs

t se

ven

re%

ecta

nce

ban

ds

of

MO

DIS

(MO

D09

pro

du

ct:

Ver

mo

te a

nd

Ver

meu

len

, 19

99),

as

wel

l

as v

eget

atio

n i

nd

ices

an

d t

he

leaf

are

a in

dex

(L

AI)

pro

du

ct

der

ived

fro

m M

OD

15 o

n t

he

sam

e se

nso

r (K

nya

zik

hin

et

al.,

1999

). C

on

sid

erin

g th

e gr

eate

r ac

cess

ibil

ity

of

AV

HR

R

imag

es a

nd

th

e go

od

per

form

ance

of

the

cali

bra

ted

mo

del

s,

the

emp

iric

al m

od

el b

ased

on

th

ese

imag

es c

an a

lso

be

con

-

sid

ered

as

a sa

tisf

acto

ry m

eth

od

fo

r es

tim

atin

g li

ve F

MC

. To

avo

id c

lou

d c

ove

rage

an

d o

&-n

adir

ob

serv

atio

ns,

an

8-d

ay

com

po

siti

ng

tech

niq

ue

bas

ed o

n m

axim

um

dai

ly t

emp

era-

ture

s ca

n b

e u

sed

(C

hu

viec

o e

t al

. 200

5). $

eref

ore

, th

e es

ti-

mat

ion

of

live

FM

C c

an b

e u

pd

ated

eve

ry 8

day

s.

Pro

pagation p

ote

ntial

Mo

st '

re s

pre

ad s

imu

lati

on

mo

del

s h

ave

bee

n d

esig

ned

fo

r

loca

l co

nd

itio

ns

and

fo

r ac

tive

're

s th

at h

ave

occ

urr

ed o

r

thei

r o

ccu

rren

ces

hav

e b

een

sim

ula

ted

. $

e av

erag

e p

rop

a-

gati

on

po

ten

tial

of e

ach

cel

l is

pro

du

ced

, ass

um

ing

a '

re m

ay

occ

ur

anyt

ime

in a

ny

cell

of

the

stu

dy

area

s. A

no

ther

ch

al-

len

ge w

as t

hat

're

pro

pag

atio

n v

alu

es s

ho

uld

be

calc

ula

ted

for

coar

se g

rid

cel

ls, s

ince

mo

del

s ar

e ad

dre

ssed

to

reg

ion

al

scal

es,

wh

ich

is

un

com

mo

n i

n '

re b

ehav

iou

r m

od

els.

De-

spit

e th

ese

two

lim

itat

ion

s, a

vera

ge p

rop

agat

ion

co

nd

itio

ns

can

be

sim

ula

ted

, as

in C

hu

viec

o e

t al

. (20

10),

usi

ng

the

Be-

hav

e p

rogr

am (

An

dre

ws

and

Ch

ase,

199

0). I

np

ut

con

dit

ion

s

hav

e to

be

sele

cted

bas

ed o

n t

he

wo

rst

case

sce

nar

io, t

hat

is,

the

're

is

po

ten

tial

ly p

rop

agat

ed a

lon

g th

e m

axim

um

slo

pe

and

th

e w

ind

sp

eed

is

the

aver

age

of

max

imu

m s

pee

ds

for

sum

mer

tim

e. $

e si

mu

late

d v

alu

es o

f %

ame

len

gth

an

d r

ate

of

spre

ad h

ave

to b

e av

erag

ed f

or

each

fu

el t

ype

and

slo

pe

inte

rval

, so

as

to g

ener

ate

a p

ote

nti

al p

rop

agat

ion

map

of

the

stu

dy

site

.

To

pic

s as

soci

ated

wit

h v

alu

es a

t st

ake

(vu

lner

abil

ity)

can

be

div

ided

in

tw

o g

rou

ps:

th

ose

ass

oci

ated

wit

h e

con

om

ic a

nd

soci

al f

acto

rs,

and

th

ose

rel

ated

to

eco

logi

cal

com

po

nen

ts.

Di&

eren

t ap

pro

ach

es c

an b

e u

sed

fo

r d

eriv

ing

each

fac

tor.

$e

tan

gibl

e re

sou

rces

are

eva

luat

ed u

sin

g d

irec

t m

eth

od

s,

such

as

the

mar

ket

pri

ce, t

he

age

of

the

fore

st s

tan

d a

nd

th

e

len

gth

of

cro

p r

ota

tio

n p

erio

ds.

$e

Co

st A

void

ance

Ap

-

pro

ach

was

use

d in

Ch

apte

r 2

to d

eter

min

e th

e va

lue

of

geo

-

info

rmat

ion

fo

r d

isas

ter

risk

man

agem

ent.

Ho

wev

er,

sin

ce

tim

ber

has

a c

lear

mar

ket

val

ue

it c

an b

e u

sed

as

a m

ean

s o

f

valu

atio

n.

Wh

ile

mar

ket

val

ue

has

bee

n w

idel

y ac

cep

ted

in

real

est

ate

and

als

o b

y go

vern

men

ts,

ther

e ar

e so

me

pro

b-

lem

s in

est

imat

ing

wil

lin

gnes

s to

pay

as

exp

ress

ed i

n C

hap

-

ter

2 an

d t

her

efo

re m

ark

et v

alu

e sh

ou

ld b

e u

sed

wit

h s

om

e

cau

tio

n.

$e

wo

od

res

ou

rces

can

be

asse

ssed

fo

llo

win

g a

mix

ed p

ro-

ced

ure

th

at c

on

sid

ers

the

Am

eric

an a

pp

roac

h (

on

ly n

atu

-

ral

rege

ner

atio

n i

s co

nsi

der

ed)

and

th

e E

uro

pea

n a

pp

roac

h

(hu

man

-in

du

ced

re

gen

erat

ion

).

$e

inta

ngi

ble

reso

urc

es

wer

e ev

alu

ated

usi

ng

ind

irec

t m

eth

od

s, s

uch

as

the

trav

el

cost

an

d c

on

tin

gen

t va

luat

ion

met

ho

ds.

$e

form

er c

an b

e

use

d t

o a

sses

s th

e re

crea

tio

nal

val

ue

of

the

lan

dsc

ape,

wh

ile

the

latt

er i

s th

e b

asis

to

eva

luat

e th

e co

st o

f n

on

-use

an

d

Page 67: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

67

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4w

ild

life

co

nse

rvat

ion

of

end

ange

red

sp

ecie

s. $

e va

lues

as-

soci

ated

wit

h h

un

tin

g an

d C

O2

sin

ks

hav

e b

een

pri

ced

ac-

cord

ing

to t

he

fore

st i

nve

nto

ry (

Ch

uvi

eco

et

al.,

2010

).

Degra

dation p

ote

ntial

$e

asse

ssm

ent

of

the

vuln

erab

ilit

y as

soci

ated

wit

h e

colo

gi-

cal f

acto

rs h

as t

o b

e fo

cuse

d o

n t

he

resp

on

se o

f ve

geta

tio

n t

o

're

e&

ects

. $

is r

esp

on

se h

as t

o b

e se

t u

p f

or

two

di&

eren

t

tim

e p

erio

ds:

sh

ort

ter

m (

less

th

an 1

yea

r), f

ocu

sed

on

iden

-

tify

ing

the

mo

st e

rod

ible

are

as, a

nd

med

ium

ter

m (

25 y

ears

)

to i

den

tify

ch

ange

s in

veg

etat

ion

str

uct

ure

an

d c

om

po

si-

tio

n c

ause

d b

y '

re.

Sin

ce v

uln

erab

ilit

y ev

alu

atio

n n

eed

s to

be

do

ne

bef

ore

a '

re o

ccu

rs,

no

pre

vio

us

kn

ow

led

ge o

f '

re

char

acte

rist

ics

and

po

st-'

re c

lim

ato

log

y h

as t

o b

e ta

ken

into

acco

un

t. C

on

seq

uen

tly,

ris

k s

cen

ario

s n

eed

to

be

crea

ted

.

Am

on

g th

e d

i&er

ent

par

amet

ers

asso

ciat

ed w

ith

deg

rad

a-

tio

n,

po

ten

tial

so

il e

rosi

on

has

to

be

calc

ula

ted

in

ord

er t

o

un

der

stan

d p

ote

nti

al r

esu

lt o

f p

ost

-'re

veg

etat

ion

lo

ss.

In

spit

e o

f th

e n

um

ero

us

mo

di'

cati

on

s an

d c

riti

cism

of

the

stru

ctu

re o

f th

e U

niv

ersa

l So

il L

oss

Eq

uat

ion

(U

SLE

), it

sti

ll

con

stit

ute

s a

refe

ren

ce t

o a

sses

s th

e m

agn

itu

de

of

soil

loss

in

bu

rned

are

as (

Gio

van

nin

i, 1

999)

. So

il e

rod

ibil

ity

anal

ysis

is

gen

eral

ly b

ased

on

org

anic

mat

ter

con

ten

t, s

urf

ace

stru

ctu

re

and

so

il c

rust

ing

risk

.

Fo

r th

e cl

imat

e fa

cto

r, t

he

Fo

urn

ier

Ind

ex c

an b

e u

sed

as

an

ind

icat

or

of

the

clim

ate

ero

sive

ab

ilit

y. $

e F

ou

rnie

r In

dex

is d

e'n

ed a

s th

e sq

uar

e o

f th

e m

ean

am

ou

nt

of

pre

cip

itat

ion

in t

he

wet

test

mo

nth

div

ided

by

the

ove

rall

an

nu

al m

ean

of

pre

cip

itat

ion

. Det

ails

are

ava

ilab

le a

t h

ttp

://w

ww

.eh

ow

.co

m/

ho

w_

1004

7009

_ca

lcu

late

-fo

urn

ier-

ind

ex.h

tml.

Dat

a li

mit

a-

tio

ns

can

o>

en l

ead

to

a q

ual

itat

ive

app

roac

h t

o c

lass

ifyi

ng

ero

dib

ilit

y in

cat

ego

ries

fro

m h

igh

to

lo

w s

ensi

tivi

ty t

o '

re

e&ec

ts.

Veg

etat

ion

po

st-'

re r

esp

on

se a

bil

ity

has

to

be

con

-

sid

ered

as

a p

red

icti

ve a

ttri

bu

te.

$e

mai

n v

eget

atio

n c

om

mu

nit

ies

can

be

gro

up

ed a

cco

rd-

ing

to t

hei

r ve

rtic

al s

tru

ctu

ral

com

po

siti

on

(tr

ees

and

/or

shru

bs)

an

d t

he

rep

rod

uct

ive

stra

teg

y fo

r ea

ch c

om

mu

nit

y.

A v

uln

erab

ilit

y va

lue

has

to

be

assi

gned

as

the

inve

rse

of

its

abil

ity

to r

esp

on

d to

sh

ort

-ter

m e

&ec

ts (

e.g.

see

der

sh

rub

lan

d

= v

ery

hig

h;

resp

rou

ter

shru

bla

nd

= l

ow

; d

e'ci

ent

seed

er

tree

co

vere

d +

see

der

sh

rub

lan

d =

ver

y h

igh

; res

pro

ute

r tr

ee

cove

red

+ m

ixed

sh

rub

lan

d =

med

ium

vu

lner

abil

ity)

. $

e

clim

atic

lim

its

to p

ost

-'re

reg

ener

atio

n h

ave

to b

e b

ased

on

his

tori

cal w

ater

de'

cit

ind

icat

ors

. $

e in

tegr

atio

n o

f th

e d

if-

fere

nt

com

po

nen

ts o

f p

ost

-'re

sh

ort

ter

m d

egra

dat

ion

po

-

ten

tial

has

to

be

det

erm

ined

by

soil

ero

dib

ilit

y, v

eget

atio

n

vuln

erab

ilit

y an

d w

ater

lim

itat

ion

s. S

cen

ario

s o

f '

re i

nte

n-

sity

hav

e to

be

esti

mat

ed f

or

the

Ro

ther

mel

’s s

tan

dar

d f

uel

mo

del

s (A

nd

erso

n,

1982

), c

on

tras

ted

on

exp

erim

enta

l '

res

(Bae

za e

t al

., 20

02)

and

're

sim

ula

tio

ns

carr

ied

ou

t w

ith

th

e

FAR

SIT

E '

re s

imu

lato

r (F

inn

ey, 1

998)

.

Lan

dsc

ape

valu

e is

th

e th

ird

co

mp

on

ent

to a

cco

un

t fo

r '

re

Vu

lner

abil

ity

(Ch

uvi

eco

et

al.,

2010

). F

ire

man

ager

s ta

ke

into

acc

ou

nt

the

intr

insi

c q

ual

ity

of

the

lan

dsc

ape

to r

ank

pre

-'re

pla

nn

ing,

ob

vio

usl

y al

on

g w

ith

oth

er v

aria

ble

s as

so-

ciat

ed w

ith

hu

man

set

tlem

ents

an

d p

ote

nti

al li

fe t

hre

ats.

$e

eval

uat

ion

of

lan

dsc

ape

char

acte

rist

ics

has

bee

n a

pp

roac

hed

by

man

y au

tho

rs i

n r

ecen

t ye

ars,

in

clu

din

g a

wid

e ra

nge

of

crit

eria

: eco

logi

cal (

Kat

o e

t al

., 19

97; N

akag

osh

i an

d K

on

do,

2002

), a

esth

etic

, p

op

ula

tio

n p

refe

ren

ces,

vis

ual

pro

per

ties

(Mar

tín

ez-V

ega

et a

l., 2

003;

Arr

iaza

et

al.,

2004

). I

n C

hu

vi-

eco

et

al.

(201

0) t

he

con

sid

erat

ion

of

lan

dsc

ape

pro

per

ties

in r

elat

ion

to

're

vu

lner

abil

ity

asse

ssm

ent

was

ap

pro

ach

ed

fro

m a

wei

ghte

d c

om

bin

atio

n o

f th

e in

trin

sic

valu

es o

f th

e

lan

dsc

ape

and

th

e le

gal

stat

us

of

pro

tect

ed a

reas

(M

artí

nez

-

Veg

a et

al.,

200

7).

Model in

tegra

tion

$e

calc

ula

ted

inp

ut

vari

able

s n

eed

to

be

con

vert

ed t

o a

co

m-

mo

n r

isk

sca

le, a

nd

th

ey s

ho

uld

be

pro

per

ly w

eigh

ted

co

nsi

d-

erin

g th

e im

po

rtan

ce o

f th

e d

i&er

ent

fact

ors

. Sev

eral

met

ho

ds

hav

e b

een

pro

po

sed

to

'n

d c

om

mo

n s

cale

s o

f '

re r

isk

, bei

ng

vari

able

no

rmal

izat

ion

, qu

alit

ativ

e ca

tego

riza

tio

n a

nd

pro

ba-

bil

isti

c ap

pro

ach

es (

Ch

uvi

eco

et

al.,

2003

). V

aria

ble

no

rmal

-

izat

ion

gen

erat

es a

co

mm

on

sca

le b

y co

nve

rtin

g ea

ch v

aria

ble

to a

zer

o t

o o

ne

ran

ge, u

sin

g ei

ther

th

e m

inim

um

an

d m

axi-

mu

m v

alu

e, o

r th

e m

ean

an

d s

tan

dar

d d

evia

tio

n o

f th

e in

pu

t

vari

able

. Qu

alit

ativ

e gr

ou

ps

imp

ly c

on

vers

ion

of

the

ori

gin

al

scal

e to

a c

ateg

ori

cal

or

ord

inal

on

e, u

sin

g ca

tego

ries

su

ch a

s

low

, med

ium

an

d h

igh

ris

k. F

inal

ly, t

he

pro

bab

ilis

tic

app

roac

h

req

uir

es t

he

mo

del

lin

g o

f va

riab

les

usi

ng

any

of

the

stan

dar

d

pro

bab

ilit

y fu

nct

ion

s (n

orm

al, P

ois

son

, Bin

ary,

etc

).

Inte

gra

tion o

f risk indic

es

On

ce t

he

risk

var

iab

les

hav

e a

com

mo

n s

cale

of

dan

ger,

th

ey

can

be

com

bin

ed i

n m

any

di&

eren

t w

ays

and

usi

ng

a w

ider

ran

ge

of

tech

niq

ues

: q

ual

itat

ive

cro

ss-t

abu

lati

on

, m

ult

i-

crit

eria

eva

luat

ion

, re

gres

sio

n t

ech

niq

ues

or

pro

bab

ilis

tic

mo

del

s (C

hu

viec

o e

t al

., 20

03).

Rep

ort

ing

the

met

ho

do

log

y

ado

pte

d in

Ch

uvi

eco

et a

l. (2

010)

th

e in

tegr

atio

n o

f th

e ca

us-

ativ

e ag

ents

(h

um

an a

nd

lig

htn

ing)

was

bas

ed o

n t

he

Ko

l-

mo

goro

v p

rob

abil

isti

c ru

le (

Tar

anto

la,

2005

), t

he

inte

gra-

tio

n o

f li

ve a

nd

dea

d F

MC

was

per

form

ed b

y av

erag

ing

bo

th

FM

C i

gnit

ion

po

ten

tial

val

ues

, w

eigh

ted

by

the

per

cen

tage

cove

r o

f bo

th d

ead

an

d li

ve f

uel

s. F

or

the

inte

grat

ion

of c

aus-

ativ

e ag

ents

an

d F

MC

a m

ult

i-cr

iter

ia e

valu

atio

n t

ech

niq

ue

(Go

mez

-Del

gad

o a

nd

Bar

red

o-C

ano,

200

6) w

as a

do

pte

d. I

t

was

als

o a

ssu

med

th

at h

igh

ris

k p

rob

abil

ity

sho

uld

be

as-

soci

ated

wit

h s

itu

atio

ns

wh

en b

oth

hig

h p

rob

abil

ity

of

hav

-

ing

cau

sati

ve a

gen

ts a

nd

FM

C i

gnit

ion

po

ten

tial

occ

ur.

As-

sum

ing

that

bo

th o

f th

ese

two

var

iab

les

are

exp

ress

ed o

n a

Car

tesi

an a

xis,

th

e d

ista

nce

to

th

e m

axim

a sh

ou

ld b

e a

goo

d

ind

icat

or

of

risk

co

nd

itio

ns,

sin

ce t

hat

po

int

exp

ress

es t

he

hig

hes

t p

rob

abil

ity

of

bo

th f

acto

rs.

Page 68: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

68

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 In t

he

case

of

the

inte

grat

ion

bet

wee

n i

gnit

ion

an

d p

rop

a-

gati

on

dan

ger,

a s

imil

ar a

pp

roac

h w

as a

do

pte

d, a

lth

ou

gh i

n

this

cas

e it

was

ass

um

ed t

hat

th

e w

ors

t co

nd

itio

ns

wo

uld

oc-

cur

eith

er w

hen

th

e m

axim

um

ign

itio

n o

r p

rop

agat

ion

dan

-

ger

occ

urs

. $er

efo

re, i

n t

his

cas

e th

e m

axim

um

dan

ger

val-

ues

sh

ou

ld b

e th

ose

mo

re d

ista

nt

fro

m t

he

ori

gin

. In

bo

th,

the

inte

grat

ion

of

ign

itio

n d

ange

r co

mp

on

ents

, an

d b

etw

een

ign

itio

n a

nd

pro

pag

atio

n d

ange

r, t

he

dyn

amic

fac

tors

su

ch

as F

MC

wer

e w

eigh

ted

hig

her

(fo

ur

tim

es),

th

an t

he

stat

ic

fact

ors

(h

um

an, l

igh

tin

g an

d p

rop

agat

ion

), s

o a

s to

be

mo

re

sen

siti

ve t

o v

aria

ble

s th

an c

han

ge r

apid

ly.

Fo

r vu

lner

abil

ity

vari

able

s, t

he

crit

erio

n t

o c

on

vert

th

e o

rigi

nal

qu

anti

tati

ve

scal

e o

f th

e so

cio

-eco

no

mic

asp

ects

an

d la

nd

scap

e va

lues

to

a ri

sk s

cale

was

bas

ed o

n q

ual

itat

ive

wei

ghti

ng.

$e

'n

al i

nte

grat

ion

of

the

vuln

erab

ilit

y co

mp

on

ent

was

bas

ed

on

fo

ur

qu

alit

ativ

e ri

sk

cate

gori

es

(low

–m

od

erat

e–

hig

h–

extr

eme)

, so

as

to p

ut

tho

se f

acto

rs i

n r

elat

ion

to

th

e

soil

deg

rad

atio

n f

acto

r, w

hic

h w

as a

lrea

dy

exp

ress

ed i

n t

hes

e

fou

r ca

tego

ries

. A s

imil

ar w

eigh

t w

as a

pp

lied

to

th

e th

ree

fac-

tors

co

nsi

der

ed (

soci

o-e

con

om

ic,

deg

rad

atio

n p

ote

nti

al a

nd

lan

dsc

ape

valu

e), s

ince

th

ey w

ere

con

sid

ered

to h

ave

a si

mil

ar

imp

act

in t

he

esti

mat

ion

of

po

ten

tial

dam

age

cau

sed

by

're

s.

Ad

dit

ion

al s

cen

ario

s co

uld

be

con

sid

ered

in f

utu

re w

ork

s.

Fir

e D

an

ger

Cla

sses

FW

I ra

nge

s (u

pp

er b

oun

d

excl

ud

ed)

Ver

y lo

w<

5.2

Lo

w5.

2 -

11.2

Mo

der

ate

11.2

- 2

1.3

Hig

h21

.3 -

38.

0

Ver

y h

igh

 38

.0 -

50.

0

Ext

rem

e>

= 5

0.0

Tab

le 4

.4.2

: Val

ues

of

FW

I u

sed

as

thre

sho

lds

of

the

're

dan

-

ger

clas

ses

in t

he

EF

FIS

fo

reca

st m

od

ule

(h

ttp

://f

ore

st.jr

c.

ec.e

uro

pa.

eu/e

#s/

)

Top

icSp

atia

l dis

trib

uti

on

of

area

s p

ron

e to

wil

d'

re r

isk

du

e to

nat

ura

l or

hu

man

fac

tors

"em

ati

c co

nte

nt

4 ri

sk c

lass

es, b

ased

on

Ter

rain

Lan

d c

ove

r/d

ista

nce

rel

atio

nsh

ips

Acc

essi

bil

ity

(Ro

ad n

etw

ork

)

Veg

etat

ion

sta

tus

Dea

d f

uel

mo

istu

re

Hu

man

fac

tors

Lig

htn

ing

po

ten

tial

Pro

pag

atio

n p

ote

nti

al

So

cio

-eco

no

mic

val

ues

Deg

rad

atio

n p

ote

nti

al

Lan

dsc

ape

valu

e

Acc

ess

Web

-bas

ed i

nfo

rmat

ion

sys

tem

, un

rest

rict

ed a

cces

s

Sca

le1:

200,

000

- 1:

1,00

0,00

0

Acc

ura

cy80

% c

orr

ect

haz

ard

in

dic

atio

n

Are

al

cove

rage

Reg

ion

al

Spa

tia

l re

solu

tion

250

m -

1 k

m

Tim

elin

ess

No

t re

leva

nt

for

risk

ass

essm

ent

Up

da

te f

req

uen

cy<

1 w

eek

fo

r m

ois

ture

dat

a

Da

ta f

orm

at

No

t ap

pli

cab

le

-

Fore

st

Fire I

nfo

rmation S

yste

m (

EF

FIS

)

$e

're

dan

ger

fore

cast

mo

du

le o

f E

FF

IS (

htt

p:/

/fo

rest

.jrc.

ec.e

uro

pa.

eu/e

#s/

) ge

ner

ates

dai

ly m

aps

for

1 to

6 d

ays

pro

-

ject

ed '

re d

ange

r le

vel

in E

U u

sin

g w

eath

er f

ore

cast

dat

a.

$e

mo

du

le i

s ac

tive

fro

m 1

Mar

ch t

o 3

1 O

cto

ber

an

d i

s

fed

to

geth

er w

ith

met

eoro

logi

cal f

ore

cast

dat

a re

ceiv

ed d

aily

fro

m F

ren

ch a

nd

Ger

man

met

eoro

logi

cal

serv

ices

(M

eteo

-

Fra

nce

an

d D

euts

cher

Wet

terd

ien

st D

WD

).

A>

er a

tes

t p

has

e o

f 5

year

s, d

uri

ng

wh

ich

di&

eren

t '

re d

an-

ger

met

ho

ds

hav

e b

een

im

ple

men

ted

in

par

alle

l, in

200

7 th

e

EF

FIS

net

wo

rk h

as a

do

pte

d t

he

Can

adia

n F

ore

st F

ire

Wea

th-

er I

nd

ex (

FW

I) S

yste

m a

s th

e m

eth

od

to a

sses

s th

e '

re d

ange

r

leve

l in

a h

arm

on

ized

way

th

rou

gho

ut

Eu

rop

e. C

alib

rati

on

of

the

're

dan

ger

ind

ex i

s st

ill

on

goin

g, t

hu

s th

e '

re d

ange

r

fore

cast

mo

du

le o

f E

FF

IS is

to

be

con

sid

ered

as

in t

est

or

pre

-

op

erat

ion

al m

od

e. F

ire

dan

ger

is m

app

ed i

n 6

cla

sses

(ve

ry

low

, low

, med

ium

, hig

h, v

ery

hig

h a

nd

ext

rem

e) w

ith

a s

pat

ial

reso

luti

on

of a

bo

ut

10 k

m (

MF

dat

a) a

nd

36

km

(D

WD

dat

a).

$e

're

dan

ger

clas

ses

are

the

sam

e fo

r al

l co

un

trie

s an

d m

aps

show

a h

arm

on

ized

pic

ture

of

the

spat

ial

dis

trib

uti

on

of

're

dan

ger

leve

l th

rou

gho

ut

EU

. V

alu

es o

f F

WI

use

d a

s th

resh

-

old

s o

f th

e '

re d

ange

r cl

asse

s in

th

e E

FF

IS f

ore

cast

mo

du

le

map

s ar

e p

rese

nte

d in

Tab

le 4

.4.2

.

Tab

le 4

.4.3

: Tec

hn

ical

Pro

'le

fo

r F

ire

Ris

k A

sses

smen

t

Page 69: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

69

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4T

akin

g in

to a

cco

un

t th

e st

ate

of

dev

elo

pm

ent

in F

ire

Ris

k

Map

pin

g as

des

crib

ed a

bo

ve, a

Tec

hn

ical

Pro

'le

was

gen

er-

ated

as

sho

wn

in

Tab

le 4

.4.3

.

App

rais

al R

esults

$e

avai

lab

ilit

y o

f F

ire

Ris

k M

aps

was

co

nsi

der

ed v

ery

im-

po

rtan

t b

y en

d-u

sers

fo

r b

oth

str

ateg

ic a

nd

op

erat

ion

al

ben

e"ts

.

Co

nce

rnin

g o

per

atio

nal

ben

e"ts

(F

igu

re 4

.2.2

), a

hig

h

ben

e't

rati

ng

was

ass

ign

ed b

y m

ore

th

an 7

5 %

of

end

-use

rs

for

crit

ical

in

fra

stru

ctu

re p

rote

ctio

n,

foll

ow

ed b

y se

curi

ty

(>55

%).

As

to b

e ex

pec

ted

wit

h a

ris

k m

ap m

ain

ly d

esig

ned

for

sup

po

rt o

f p

re-d

isas

ter

acti

viti

es i

n t

he

way

of

risk

re-

du

ctio

n a

nd

pre

par

edn

ess,

hea

lth

car

e an

d h

um

anit

aria

n a

id

wer

e co

nsi

der

ed a

s is

sues

ben

e'tt

ing

less

fro

m t

his

pro

du

ct.

No

n-e

nd

-use

rs (

Fig

ure

4.4

.3)

lik

ewis

e h

igh

ligh

ted

th

e b

en-

e't

for

crit

ical

in

fra

stru

ctu

re a

nd

co

n'

rmed

th

e en

d-u

sers

low

er a

pp

rais

al f

or

hea

lth

car

e an

d h

um

anit

aria

n a

id,

bu

t

gave

a d

isti

nct

ly lo

wer

hig

h-b

ene'

t sc

ore

fo

r se

curi

ty.

In t

he

con

text

str

ateg

ic b

ene"

ts,

the

Fir

e R

isk

Map

was

con

sid

ered

as

hig

hly

ben

e'ci

al f

or

the

supp

ort

of p

reve

n-

tive

str

ateg

ies

(>70

% o

f en

d-u

sers

) an

d f

or

red

uci

ng

loss

es

in p

ubl

ic e

con

omy

(>60

%),

in

acc

ord

ance

wit

h t

he

maj

or

ob

ject

ives

of

risk

map

pin

g (F

igu

re 4

.4.4

). B

ene'

ts f

or

sup

-

po

rt o

f su

perr

egio

nal

con

sist

ency

an

d c

oope

rati

on a

nd

th

e

e"ci

ency

an

d p

ubl

ic a

ccep

tan

ce o

f pl

ans

and

pol

icie

s w

ere

con

sid

ered

less

im

po

rtan

t.

Ap

pra

isal

res

ult

s fr

om

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs d

i&er

sli

ghtl

y fr

om

tho

se o

f en

d-u

sers

; w

hil

e th

ey a

gree

on

th

e h

igh

ben

e't

of

a F

ire

Ris

k M

ap f

or

supp

ort

of p

reve

nti

ve s

trat

egie

s (a

lso

>70

%),

th

ey g

ive

the

low

est

hig

h b

ene'

t sc

ore

fo

r re

du

cin

g

loss

es i

n p

ubl

ic e

con

omy

(<50

%,

bu

t 0

% f

or

low

ben

e't)

(Fig

ure

4.4

.5).

Fig

ure

4.4

.2: O

per

atio

nal

Ben

e'ts

of

Fir

e R

isk

Map

(en

d-u

ser

app

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.4

.3: O

per

atio

nal

Ben

e'ts

of

Fir

e R

isk

Map

(n

on

-en

d-u

ser

app

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.4

.4: S

trat

egic

Ben

e'ts

of

Fir

e R

isk

Map

(en

d-u

ser

app

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.4

.5: S

trat

egic

Ben

e'ts

of

Fir

e R

isk

Map

(n

on

-en

d-u

ser

app

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.4

.6:

Cri

tica

lity

of

spec

i'c

feat

ure

s o

f F

ire

Ris

k M

ap (

end

-use

r ap

-

pra

isal

)

Fig

ure

4.4

.7:

Cri

tica

lity

of

spec

i'c

feat

ure

s o

f F

ire

Ris

k M

ap (

no

n-e

nd

-use

r

app

rais

al)

Page 70: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

70

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 Co

nce

rnin

g th

e cr

itic

alit

y o

f sp

eci"

c p

rod

uct

fe

atu

res

(Fig

ure

4.4

.6),

them

atic

con

ten

t w

as e

valu

ated

as

hig

hly

cri

ti-

cal

by

mo

re t

han

70

% o

f en

d-u

sers

, w

hic

h i

s p

lau

sib

le i

n

view

of

the

com

ple

x d

ata

bas

e u

nd

erly

ing

the

're

ris

k a

s-

sess

men

t m

od

el.

Acc

ess

to t

he

pro

du

ct r

eso

urc

e,

accu

racy

(i.

e. r

elia

bil

ity

of

haz

ard

in

dic

atio

n),

u

pdat

e fr

equ

ency

an

d

area

l co

vera

ge

wer

e al

so c

on

sid

ered

hig

hly

cri

tica

l b

y m

ore

th

an 5

0 %

of

end

-use

rs.

&em

atic

con

ten

t is

th

e m

ost

im

po

rtan

t fe

atu

re a

lso

fo

r

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs (

Fig

ure

4.4

.7),

wit

h m

ore

th

an 8

0 %

rat

ing

it a

s h

igh

ly c

riti

cal.

Co

mp

ared

wit

h t

he

end

-use

rs’ a

pp

rais

al,

scal

e an

d s

pati

al r

esol

uti

on w

ere

con

sid

ered

eve

n le

ss c

riti

cal.

$e

crea

tio

n o

f su

ch a

sys

tem

rel

ies

on

th

e av

aila

bil

ity

of

nea

r-re

al-t

ime

low

-co

st s

atel

lite

im

ages

, w

ith

glo

bal

co

v-

erag

e an

d m

ediu

m s

pat

ial

reso

luti

on

, in

ord

er t

o p

rod

uce

rast

er m

aps

of

acti

ve '

res

and

bu

rned

are

as w

ith

hig

h t

em-

po

ral

reso

luti

on

. A

su

mm

ary

of

the

stat

e-o

f-th

e-ar

t an

d o

f

syst

ems

that

alr

ead

y ex

ist

is p

rese

nte

d i

n t

he

foll

ow

ing.

Rem

ote

sensin

g f

or

Fire D

ete

ction a

nd M

oni-

toring

Fir

e in

form

atio

n d

eriv

ed f

rom

rem

ote

sen

sin

g d

ata

is t

he

pro

du

ct

of

inte

rdis

cip

lin

ary

wo

rk

des

ign

ed

to

mee

t th

e

nee

ds

of

the

Glo

bal

Ch

ange

res

earc

h a

nd

th

e '

re a

pp

lica

-

tio

ns

com

mu

nit

y. $

is i

nfo

rmat

ion

has

bee

n d

evel

op

ed i

n

resp

on

se t

o a

gro

win

g d

eman

d f

or

spat

iall

y ex

pli

cit

're

dat

a

to p

aram

eter

ize

and

val

idat

e va

rio

us

regi

on

al a

nd

glo

bal

mo

del

s. F

ire

is r

eco

gniz

ed a

s an

im

po

rtan

t co

mp

on

ent

of

trac

e ga

s an

d p

arti

cula

te e

mis

sio

n m

od

elli

ng,

cli

mat

e m

od

-

elli

ng,

atm

osp

her

ic t

ran

spo

rt a

nd

ch

emis

try

mo

del

s, e

co-

syst

em d

ynam

ics

mo

del

s an

d m

od

els

of

lan

d u

se c

han

ge.

Fir

e is

als

o a

lan

d m

anag

emen

t is

sue

and

a n

atu

ral h

azar

d.

A v

ast

volu

me

of

lite

ratu

re i

s av

aila

ble

on

rem

ote

sen

sin

g

for

app

lica

tio

ns

on

're

s, a

nd

sev

eral

pap

ers

(e.g

. C

hu

viec

o

1999

, A

her

n e

t al

., 20

01,

Xia

o e

t al

., 20

09)

sho

w t

hat

th

ree

mai

n li

nes

of

rese

arch

are

bei

ng

foll

ow

ed:

eval

uat

ion

of

new

sen

sors

;

dev

elo

pm

ent

or

adap

tati

on

of

met

ho

ds

for

bu

rned

lan

d

dis

crim

inat

ion

, b

ased

on

SA

R i

nte

rfer

om

etry

, sp

ectr

al

un

mix

ing,

lo

gist

ic

regr

essi

on

an

d

chan

ge

det

ecti

on

anal

ysis

,

spec

tral

an

alys

is o

f b

urn

ed a

reas

fo

r th

e p

urp

ose

of

de-

'n

ing

mo

re a

ccu

rate

in

dic

es f

or

bu

rned

lan

d d

iscr

imi-

nat

ion

.

Info

rmat

ion

fro

m h

igh

an

d m

ediu

m r

eso

luti

on

sen

sors

can

be

use

d t

o c

alcu

late

, in

a s

emi-

auto

mat

ic m

ann

er,

the

ex-

ten

t o

f b

urn

ed a

reas

, b

ased

on

th

e ca

lcu

lati

on

of

di&

eren

t

vege

tati

on

ind

ices

, usi

ng

red

an

d n

ear-

infr

ared

sp

ectr

al d

ata

(Ch

uvi

eco

et

al.,

2002

), o

r u

sin

g su

per

vise

d c

lass

i'ca

tio

n

met

ho

do

logi

es s

uch

as

max

imu

m l

ikel

iho

od

(B

osc

het

ti e

t

al.,

2007

).

$er

e ar

e m

any

sate

llit

e se

nso

rs t

hat

are

wid

ely

use

d i

n '

re

det

ecti

on

an

d m

on

ito

rin

g, e

spec

iall

y:

Ad

van

ced

Sp

aceb

orn

e $

erm

al E

mis

sio

n a

nd

Re%

ec-

tio

n R

adio

met

er (

AST

ER

)

Ad

van

ced

Lan

d I

mag

er (

AL

I) o

n E

O-1

sat

elli

te

Ad

van

ced

Ver

y H

igh

Res

olu

tio

n R

adio

met

er (

AV

HR

R)

Mo

der

ate

Res

olu

tio

n

Imag

ing

Spec

tro

rad

iom

eter

(MO

DIS

)

Lan

dsa

t 5

TM

($

emat

ic M

app

er, n

o lo

nge

r o

per

atio

n-

al b

ut

his

tori

cal d

ata

avai

lab

le)

Lan

dsa

t 7

ET

M+

(E

nh

ance

d $

emat

ic M

app

er P

lus)

Lan

dsa

t 8

Op

erat

ion

al L

and

Im

ager

(O

LI)

Spo

t 4

and

5

Qu

ick

bir

d-2

IKO

NO

S-2

Wo

rld

view

2

Dei

mo

s

$e

char

acte

rist

ics

of

mo

st o

f th

em a

re li

sted

in

Tab

le 4

.4.4

Eac

h s

enso

r h

as i

ts o

wn

ad

van

tage

s an

d d

isad

van

tage

s in

term

s o

f sp

atia

l an

d t

emp

ora

l res

olu

tio

ns,

co

st, a

nd

acq

uis

i-

tio

n t

ime.

$e

hig

h s

pat

ial r

eso

luti

on

sen

sors

hav

e lo

w t

em-

po

ral

reso

luti

on

(o

r th

ere

is n

o p

ast

dat

a b

ecau

se d

ata

wer

e

on

ly a

cqu

ired

on

dem

and

); a

dd

itio

nal

ly,

the

cost

of

dat

a

fro

m t

hes

e se

nso

rs r

ange

s fr

om

$ 8

0 to

th

ou

san

ds

of

do

l-

lars

, dep

end

ing

on

th

e se

nso

r. C

on

seq

uen

tly

it i

s u

nfe

asib

le

to u

se t

his

kin

d o

f p

rod

uct

fo

r m

on

ito

rin

g ac

tive

're

s an

d

bu

rned

are

as a

nd

to

est

abli

sh a

n e

arly

-war

nin

g sy

stem

.

An

im

po

rtan

t in

itia

tive

aim

ed a

t re

'n

ing

and

art

icu

lati

ng

the

inte

rnat

ion

al r

equ

irem

ents

fo

r '

re r

elat

ed o

bse

rvat

ion

s

is t

he

GO

FC

-GO

LD

-Fir

e M

app

ing

and

Mo

nit

ori

ng

$em

e

(htt

p:/

/ww

w.f

ao.o

rg/g

tos/

gofc

-go

ld/f

_'

re.h

tml)

th

at a

ims

to

mak

e th

e b

est

po

ssib

le u

se o

f ex

isti

ng

and

fu

ture

sat

elli

te o

b-

serv

ing

syst

ems,

fo

r '

re m

anag

emen

t, p

oli

cy d

ecis

ion

-mak

-

ing

and

glo

bal

ch

ange

res

earc

h. O

ne

of

the

pri

mar

y go

als

of

GO

FC

-GO

LD

Fir

e is

to

est

abli

sh a

net

wo

rk o

f '

re v

alid

a-

tio

n s

ites

an

d p

roto

cols

, p

rovi

din

g ac

cura

cy a

sses

smen

t fo

r

op

erat

ion

al p

rod

uct

s an

d a

tes

t b

ed f

or

new

or

enh

ance

d

pro

du

cts,

lea

din

g to

sta

nd

ard

pro

du

cts

of

kn

ow

n a

ccu

racy

.

To

pic

s o

f th

e '

re p

rogr

am i

ncl

ud

e:

Ava

ilab

ilit

y o

f o

bse

rvat

ion

s

Har

mo

niz

atio

n a

nd

sta

nd

ard

izat

ion

Val

idat

ion

Ad

equ

acy

and

ad

voca

cy o

f p

rod

uct

s

Reg

ion

al n

etw

ork

s an

d c

apac

ity

bu

ild

ing

Shar

ed d

ata,

in

form

atio

n a

nd

kn

ow

led

ge

Page 71: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

71

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4(a

) $

ere

is a

n a

dd

itio

nal

sen

sor

(Veg

etat

ion

sen

sor)

on

Spo

t 4

and

5 s

atel

lite

s, w

hic

h h

as a

res

olu

tio

n o

f 1

km

fo

r

the

wh

ole

'el

d o

f vi

ew o

f 24

00 k

m, o

&er

ing

alm

ost

dai

ly

cove

rage

of

the

wh

ole

of

the

eart

h‘s

surf

ace.

Of

its

4 sp

ec-

tral

ban

ds,

3 b

and

s ch

arac

teri

ze v

eget

atio

n (

0.61

-0.6

8 μ

m

red

ban

d,

0.78

-0.8

9 μ

m n

ear

infr

ared

, an

d 1

.58-

1.75

μm

sho

rt w

ave

infr

ared

) an

d t

he

fou

rth

ban

d (

0.43

-0.4

7 μ

m,

blu

e) i

s fo

r at

mo

sph

eric

co

rrec

tio

n.

(b)

$is

is t

he

po

ten

tial

tem

po

ral r

eso

luti

on

fo

r a

spec

i'c

loca

tio

n, b

ecau

se t

he

his

tori

cal d

ata

may

no

t b

e av

aila

ble

if n

o o

ne

req

ues

ted

th

e sa

tell

ite

to c

oll

ect

dat

a o

n t

he

ac-

tual

dat

e fo

r th

at lo

cati

on

.

(c)

$e

pri

ce o

f h

igh

er-l

evel

pro

du

cts

(su

ch a

s te

mp

era-

ture

an

d r

e%ec

tan

ce)

der

ived

fro

m t

he

raw

rad

ian

ce d

ata

are

$80

per

sce

ne.

On

ly A

STE

R a

nd

MO

DIS

pro

vid

e

hig

her

-lev

el p

rod

uct

s.

Tab

le 4

.4.4

: L

aun

ch d

ate,

sta

tus,

an

d s

pat

ial

and

tem

po

ral

reso

luti

on

s o

f m

ajo

r sa

tell

ite

sen

sors

use

d f

or

're

det

ecti

on

pu

r-

po

ses

Page 72: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

72

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 $e

GO

FC

-GO

LD

Fir

e Im

ple

men

tati

on

Tea

m i

s al

so a

n i

n-

tern

atio

nal

fo

rum

fo

r en

suri

ng

the

pro

visi

on

of

lon

g-te

rm,

syst

emat

ic s

atel

lite

ob

serv

atio

ns

nec

essa

ry f

or

the

pro

du

c-

tio

n o

f th

e fu

ll s

uit

e o

f '

re p

rod

uct

s. $

e te

am w

ork

s w

ith

the

GO

FC

-GO

LD

Reg

ion

al N

etw

ork

s to

bri

ng

toge

ther

're

dat

a p

rovi

der

s an

d '

re d

ata

use

rs t

o e

xch

ange

in

form

atio

n

on

cap

abil

itie

s an

d n

eed

s. $

e n

etw

ork

s al

low

fo

r la

tera

l ex-

chan

ge o

f in

form

atio

n a

nd

pro

vid

e a

mea

ns

for

stre

ngt

hen

-

ing

regi

on

al a

nd

in

par

ticu

lar

nat

ion

al r

elat

ed '

re a

ctiv

itie

s.

Co

ntr

ibu

tory

pro

ject

s to

GO

FC

-GO

LD

are

lis

ted

at

htt

p:/

/

gofc

-'re

.um

d.e

du

/pro

ject

s/co

ntr

ibu

tory

.ph

p.

Am

on

gst

the

di&

eren

t p

roje

cts

con

sid

ered

by

GO

FC

-GO

LD

, th

e M

OD

IS

're

pro

du

cts

and

th

e re

late

d F

IRM

S p

rod

uct

s (h

ttp

://e

arth

-

dat

a.n

asa.

gov/

dat

a/n

ear-

real

-tim

e-d

ata/

'rm

s)

are

con

sid

-

ered

am

on

g th

e m

ost

use

d r

elia

ble

lo

w c

ost

pro

du

cts

to

mo

nit

or

and

det

ect

ho

tsp

ots

an

d b

urn

ed a

reas

wo

rld

wid

e.

$e

MO

DIS

pro

du

ct h

as a

1-2

day

tem

po

ral a

nd

a 2

50-1

000

m s

pat

ial

reso

luti

on

; th

e d

ata

are

free

an

d c

ove

r m

ore

sp

ec-

tral

ban

ds

than

oth

er s

atel

lite

s (u

p t

o 3

6 b

and

s).

MO

DIS

pro

du

cts

are

bu

ilt

and

im

pro

ved

bas

ed o

n e

xper

ien

ce w

ith

're

ass

essm

ents

pri

mar

ily

usi

ng

the

NO

AA

-AV

HR

R a

nd

GO

ES

syst

ems

(NO

AA

, 20

02),

an

d i

t h

as t

o b

e co

nsi

der

ed

that

no

oth

er s

yste

m p

rovi

des

th

e in

stru

men

t ch

arac

teri

s-

tics

nee

ded

fo

r an

e&

ecti

ve g

lob

al '

re m

on

ito

rin

g p

rogr

am.

$e

MO

DIS

sen

sor

was

des

ign

ed t

o i

ncl

ud

e ch

arac

teri

stic

s

spec

i'ca

lly

for

're

det

ecti

on

an

d p

rovi

des

a u

niq

ue

cap

a-

bil

ity

in t

erm

s o

f '

re m

on

ito

rin

g. $

e '

re p

rod

uct

s p

rovi

de

an id

enti

'ca

tio

n o

f th

e o

ccu

rren

ce o

f th

erm

al a

no

mal

ies,

an

esti

mat

e o

f th

e to

tal

emit

ted

po

wer

fro

m t

he

're

, an

d t

he

bu

rned

are

a. $

e p

rod

uct

s ar

e in

di&

erin

g st

ages

of

mat

uri

ty

and

eac

h p

rod

uct

has

an

exp

lici

t va

lid

atio

n p

rogr

am.

$e

Ger

man

Aer

osp

ace

Cen

ter

(DL

R)

lau

nch

ed a

n e

xper

i-

men

tal '

re d

etec

tio

n s

atel

lite

ref

erre

d to

as

BIR

D (

Bis

pec

tral

Infr

aRed

Det

ecti

on

) w

ith

a s

pat

ial

reso

luti

on

of

370

m,

in

No

vem

ber

200

1, o

per

atin

g u

nti

l 20

03 (

Oer

tel

et a

l., 2

010,

Ru

eck

er e

t al

., 20

11).

$e

mai

n o

bje

ctiv

es o

f th

e ex

per

imen

-

tal

sate

llit

e w

ere

to d

emo

nst

rate

new

sm

all

sate

llit

e te

chn

ol-

og

y, a

nd

to

in

vest

igat

e n

ew i

nfr

ared

arr

ay s

enso

rs f

or

the

det

ecti

on

of

hig

h t

emp

erat

ure

eve

nts

su

ch a

s fo

rest

're

s.

$e

sate

llit

e in

clu

ded

a t

wo

ch

ann

el H

ot

Spo

t R

eco

gnit

ion

Syst

em (

HSR

S) w

hic

h w

as a

ble

to

det

ect

smal

ler

're

s th

an

the

MO

DIS

sen

sors

, an

d a

lso

was

cap

able

of

bet

ter

char

ac-

teri

zati

on

of

're

fro

nts

. H

ow

ever

, d

ue

to i

ts h

igh

er s

pat

ial

reso

luti

on

, it

s te

mp

ora

l re

solu

tio

n w

as l

ow

er t

han

th

at o

f

MO

DIS

. A s

ign

i'ca

nt

ou

tco

me

of

this

mis

sio

n w

as t

he

abil

-

ity

to c

har

acte

rize

're

rad

iati

ve p

ow

er (

FR

P).

Exp

erim

ents

hav

e b

een

un

der

tak

en t

o c

om

par

e th

e m

easu

red

FR

P b

y th

e

MO

DIS

an

d B

IRD

sat

elli

tes.

At

pre

sen

t tw

o n

ew '

re s

atel

-

lite

s ar

e p

rop

ose

d f

or

lau

nch

in

th

e n

ear

futu

re f

orm

ing

the

Fir

eBIR

D m

issi

on

. $

ese

incl

ud

e th

e T

ET

-1 (

Tec

hn

olo

gie-

Erp

rob

un

gstr

äger

-1 o

r T

ech

no

log

y T

esti

ng

Dev

ice-

1) a

nd

BIR

OS

(Ber

lin

In

fraR

ed O

pti

cal

Syst

em).

On

bo

ard

pro

-

cess

ing

wil

l b

e ex

trem

ely

rap

id a

llo

win

g fo

r th

e fa

cili

tati

on

of

new

ser

vice

s fo

r '

re m

anag

ers

at '

re f

ron

ts.

$e

MO

DIS

alg

ori

thm

fo

r '

re h

ots

po

t d

etec

tio

n i

s p

er-

form

ed u

sin

g a

con

text

ual

alg

ori

thm

(G

igli

o e

t al

., 20

03)

that

exp

loit

s th

e st

ron

g em

issi

on

of

mid

-in

frar

ed r

adia

tio

n

fro

m '

res

(Do

zier

, 198

1; M

atso

n a

nd

Do

zier

, 198

1). $

e al

-

gori

thm

exa

min

es e

ach

pix

el o

f th

e M

OD

IS s

wat

h,

and

ul-

tim

atel

y as

sign

s ea

ch o

ne

into

on

e o

f th

e fo

llo

win

g cl

asse

s:

mis

sin

g d

ata,

clo

ud

, w

ater

, n

on

-'re

, '

re,

or

un

kn

ow

n.

$e

algo

rith

m u

ses

bri

ghtn

ess

tem

per

atu

res

der

ived

fro

m t

he

MO

DIS

4 µ

m a

nd

11

µm

ch

ann

els,

den

ote

d a

s T

4 a

nd

T

11, r

esp

ecti

vely

. Clo

ud

an

d w

ater

pix

els

are

iden

ti'

ed u

sin

g

inte

rnal

clo

ud

an

d w

ater

mas

ks

wit

hin

th

e M

OD

IS L

evel

1A

geo

loca

tio

n p

rod

uct

s (M

OD

13 a

nd

MY

D03

), r

esp

ecti

vely

,

and

pix

els

are

assi

gned

acc

ord

ingl

y. P

roce

ssin

g th

en c

on

tin

-

ues

on

th

e re

mai

nin

g p

ixel

s o

ver

lan

d.

A p

reli

min

ary

clas

si'

cati

on

is u

sed

to

eli

min

ate

obv

iou

s n

on

-

're

pix

els.

Fo

r th

ose

po

ten

tial

're

pix

els

that

rem

ain

, an

at-

tem

pt

is m

ade

to u

se t

he

nei

ghb

ou

rin

g p

ixel

s to

est

imat

e th

e

rad

iom

etri

c si

gnal

of

po

ten

tial

're

pix

els

in t

he

abse

nce

of

're

. V

alid

nei

ghb

ou

rin

g p

ixel

s in

a w

ind

ow c

entr

ed o

n t

he

po

ten

tial

're

pix

el a

re id

enti

'ed

an

d u

sed

to

est

imat

e a

bac

k-

gro

un

d v

alu

e. $

e w

ind

ow s

tart

s as

a 3

×3

pix

el s

qu

are

rin

g

aro

un

d t

he

po

ten

tial

're

pix

el.

Du

e to

th

e tr

ian

gula

r al

on

g-

scan

res

po

nse

of

the

MO

DIS

in

stru

men

t (K

aufm

an e

t al

.,

1998

), t

he

two

alo

ng-

scan

pix

els

adja

cen

t to

th

e p

ote

nti

al '

re

pix

el a

re d

eem

ed u

nre

liab

le a

nd

are

exc

lud

ed f

rom

th

e b

ack

-

gro

un

d c

har

acte

riza

tio

n. $

e ri

ng

is in

crea

sed

to

a m

axim

um

of

21×

21 p

ixel

s as

nec

essa

ry,

un

til

at l

east

25

% o

f th

e p

ixel

s

wit

hin

th

e w

ind

ow h

ave

bee

n d

eem

ed v

alid

, an

d t

he

nu

mb

er

of

vali

d p

ixel

s is

at

leas

t ei

ght.

Du

rin

g th

is s

tep,

an

op

tim

ized

nea

rest

-nei

ghb

ou

r se

arch

is

use

d t

o c

orr

ect

for

the

‘bow

tie’

e&ec

t, o

r ov

erla

p b

etw

een

MO

DIS

sca

ns

(Nis

hih

ama

et a

l.,

1997

). I

f th

e b

ack

gro

un

d c

har

acte

riza

tio

n w

as s

ucc

essf

ul,

a

seri

es o

f co

nte

xtu

al t

hre

sho

ld t

ests

are

use

d t

o p

erfo

rm '

re

det

ecti

on

. Rel

ativ

e th

resh

old

s ar

e ad

just

ed b

ased

on

th

e n

atu

-

ral v

aria

bil

ity

of

the

bac

kgr

ou

nd

. Ad

dit

ion

al s

pec

iali

zed

tes

ts

are

use

d to

eli

min

ate

fals

e d

etec

tio

ns

cau

sed

by

sun

gli

nt,

des

-

ert

bo

un

dar

ies,

an

d e

rro

rs i

n t

he

wat

er m

ask

. C

and

idat

e '

re

pix

els

that

are

no

t rej

ecte

d in

the

cou

rse

of a

pp

lyin

g th

ese

test

s

are

assi

gned

a c

lass

of

're

. P

ixel

s fo

r w

hic

h t

he

bac

kgr

ou

nd

char

acte

riza

tio

n c

ou

ld n

ot

be

per

form

ed, i

.e. t

ho

se h

avin

g an

insu

#ci

ent

nu

mb

er o

f va

lid

pix

els,

are

ass

ign

ed a

cla

ss o

f u

n-

kn

own

. A

det

aile

d d

escr

ipti

on

of

the

det

ecti

on

alg

ori

thm

is

give

n in

(G

igli

o e

t al

., 20

03).

$e

Fir

e In

form

atio

n f

or

Res

ou

rce

Man

agem

ent

Syst

em

(FIR

MS)

is

a w

eb a

pp

lica

tio

n t

hat

del

iver

s gl

ob

al M

OD

IS

ho

tsp

ots

an

d '

re l

oca

tio

ns

in a

n e

asy

to u

se f

orm

at (

htt

p:/

/

eart

hd

ata.

nas

a.go

v/d

ata/

nea

r-re

al-t

ime-

dat

a/'

rms,

F

igu

re

4.4.

8).

FIR

MS

ho

st t

he

foll

ow

ing

dat

a: N

RT

MO

DIS

Act

ive

Fir

e D

ata,

Co

llec

tio

n 5

MO

DIS

Act

ive

Fir

e D

ata,

MO

DIS

Bu

rned

Are

a. $

ese

acti

ve '

re l

oca

tio

ns

are

pro

cess

ed b

y

LA

NC

E u

sin

g th

e st

and

ard

MO

DIS

MO

D14

/MY

D14

Fir

e

and

$er

mal

An

om

alie

s p

rod

uct

. E

ach

act

ive

're

lo

cati

on

rep

rese

nts

th

e ce

ntr

e o

f a

1 k

m p

ixel

th

at i

s %

agge

d b

y th

e

algo

rith

m a

s co

nta

inin

g o

ne

or

mo

re '

res

wit

hin

th

e p

ixel

.

FIR

MS

also

o&

ers

mo

nth

ly M

OD

IS B

urn

ed A

rea

(MC

D45

)

imag

es t

hro

ugh

Web

Fir

e M

app

er.

Page 73: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

73

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4

Rem

ote

Sensin

g f

or

dete

ction a

nd m

onitoring

Bu

rned

are

as a

re c

har

acte

rize

d b

y d

epo

sits

of

char

coal

an

d

ash

, re

mo

val

of

vege

tati

on

, an

d a

lter

atio

n o

f th

e ve

geta

tio

n

stru

ctu

re (

Ro

y et

al.,

199

9). S

om

e au

tho

rs h

ave

sho

wn

hig

h-

er a

ccu

raci

es i

n t

he

Nea

r-In

frar

ed a

nd

Sh

ort

Wav

e In

frar

ed

(NIR

–SW

IR)

spec

tral

do

mai

n f

or

bu

rned

lan

d d

iscr

imin

a-

tio

n (

Tri

gg a

nd

Fla

sse,

200

0), a

s w

ell a

s in

dic

es b

ased

on

th

e

Red

an

d N

ear-

Infr

ared

reg

ion

(R

-NIR

). I

t h

as t

o b

e n

ote

d

that

th

e av

aila

bil

ity

of

SWIR

ban

ds

in s

atel

lite

sen

sors

is

qu

ite

rece

nt

(199

8 fo

r SP

OT

HR

V a

nd

SP

OT

Veg

etat

ion

;

1999

fo

r M

OD

IS,

2000

fo

r N

OA

A A

VH

RR

) an

d t

her

efo

re,

for

his

tori

cal m

app

ing

of

bu

rned

are

as, t

he

R-N

IR r

ange

re-

mai

ns

crit

ical

. In

ad

dit

ion

, th

e SW

IR d

etec

tors

of

the

AS-

TE

R s

atel

lite

are

no

lo

nge

r fu

nct

ion

ing

du

e to

an

om

alo

usl

y

hig

h S

WIR

det

ecto

r te

mp

erat

ure

s (s

ince

12

Jan

uar

y 20

09).

$e

mo

st c

om

mo

nly

use

d p

aram

eter

s fo

r es

tim

ates

of

bu

rn

seve

rity

an

d a

rea

are

the

No

rmal

ized

Bu

rn R

atio

(N

BR

), t

he

di&

eren

ced

No

rmal

ized

Bu

rn R

atio

(d

NB

R),

an

d t

he

No

r-

mal

ized

Di&

eren

ce V

eget

atio

n I

nd

ex (

ND

VI)

(K

asis

chk

e

and

Fre

nch

199

5).

Usu

ally

, re

sear

cher

s u

se t

hes

e in

dic

es

wit

h a

th

resh

old

val

ue

or

a re

gres

sio

n e

qu

atio

n t

o p

red

ict

the

bu

rn a

rea

and

bu

rn s

ever

ity.

In

ad

dit

ion

, so

me

rese

arch

-

ers

ob

serv

e te

mp

ora

l di&

eren

cin

g o

f sp

ectr

al t

ran

sfo

rmat

ion

(TC

T)

to d

etec

t th

e b

urn

ed a

rea

(Ro

gan

an

d Y

oo

l, 20

01).

$re

e ve

geta

tio

n i

nd

ices

bas

ed o

n t

he

Red

–N

ear-

Infr

ared

spec

tral

do

mai

n a

re a

lso

co

nsi

der

ed v

ery

use

ful

in b

urn

ed

area

det

ecti

on

(C

hu

viec

o E

., 20

02),

nam

ely

:

$e

Soil

A

dju

sted

V

eget

atio

n

Ind

ex

(SA

VI)

(H

uet

e,

1988

), w

hic

h h

as s

ho

wn

to

be

very

sen

siti

ve t

o d

iscr

im-

inat

e ve

geta

tio

n a

mo

un

t in

sp

arse

ly v

eget

ated

are

as;

$e

Glo

bal

En

viro

nm

enta

l M

onit

orin

g In

dex

(G

EM

I),

clai

med

to

be

less

a&

ecte

d b

y so

il a

nd

atm

osp

her

ic v

ari-

atio

ns

than

ND

VI

(Pin

ty a

nd

Ver

stra

ete,

199

2);

$e

Bu

rned

Are

a In

dex

(B

AI)

, de'

ned

by

Mar

tin

(19

98),

spec

i'ca

lly

to d

iscr

imin

ate

re-a

&ec

ted

are

as. $

is in

dex

is c

om

pu

ted

fro

m t

he

spec

tral

dis

tan

ce f

rom

eac

h p

ixel

to a

ref

eren

ce s

pec

tral

po

int,

wh

ere

rece

ntl

y b

urn

ed a

r-

eas

ten

d t

o c

on

verg

e.

As

des

crib

ed a

bo

ve,

app

lica

tio

ns

of

this

kin

d g

ive

bet

ter

resu

lts

wh

en a

pp

lied

on

hig

h r

eso

luti

on

sat

elli

te i

mag

es.

In

2010

a r

evie

w o

f th

e sa

tell

ite

rem

ote

sen

sin

g u

se i

n f

ore

st

hea

lth

stu

die

s, '

re f

uel

map

pin

g, '

re r

isk

est

imat

ion

, 're

de-

tect

ion

, po

st-'

re s

ever

ity

map

pin

g, a

nd

rel

ativ

e w

ater

str

ess

mo

nit

ori

ng

(Wan

g et

al.,

201

0) c

on

clu

ded

th

at M

OD

IS d

ata

are

mo

re a

pp

rop

riat

e fo

r m

ost

rem

ote

sen

sin

g ap

pli

cati

on

s

for

fore

st h

ealt

h t

han

oth

er c

urr

ent

sate

llit

e d

ata,

wh

en c

on

-

sid

erin

g te

mp

ora

l an

d s

pat

ial

reso

luti

on

s, c

ost

, an

d a

vail

-

abil

ity

of

ban

ds.

MO

DIS

Alg

orith

m t

o d

ete

ct

and m

onitor

Pre

vio

usl

y, i

n t

he

abse

nce

of

accu

rate

bu

rned

are

a p

rod

uct

s,

bu

rned

are

a as

sess

men

ts h

ave

bee

n c

reat

ed o

n t

he

bas

is o

f

cali

bra

tin

g th

e av

aila

ble

act

ive

're

dat

a fr

om

reg

ion

al A

VH

RR

Fig

ure

4.4

.8:

FIR

MS

web

ap

pli

cati

on

(h

ttp

://e

arth

dat

a.n

asa.

gov/

dat

a/n

ear-

real

-tim

e-d

ata/

'rm

s)

Page 74: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

74

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 and

glo

bal

MO

DIS

dat

a. H

owev

er s

ever

al r

emo

te s

ensi

ng,

en

-

viro

nm

enta

l, an

d '

re b

ehav

iou

r fa

cto

rs l

imit

th

e ac

cura

cy o

f

such

der

ived

're

a&

ecte

d a

rea

dat

a se

ts. $

e av

aila

bil

ity

of

ro-

bu

stly

cal

ibra

ted

, atm

osp

her

ical

ly c

orr

ecte

d, c

lou

d-s

cree

ned

,

geo

-lo

cate

d d

ata

pro

vid

ed b

y th

e la

test

gen

erat

ion

of

mo

d-

erat

e re

solu

tio

n r

emo

te s

ensi

ng

syst

ems

allo

ws

for

maj

or

ad-

van

ces

in s

atel

lite

map

pin

g o

f '

re a

&ec

ted

are

a.

A c

om

ple

men

tary

MO

DIS

alg

ori

thm

de'

ned

fo

r m

app

ing

're

a&

ecte

d a

reas

has

bee

n d

evel

op

ed,

and

th

e '

rst

glo

bal

b

urn

ed a

rea

pro

du

ct f

rom

200

0 o

nw

ard

s is

no

w b

ein

g ge

n-

erat

ed a

s p

art

of t

he

MO

DIS

Lan

d c

oll

ecti

on

5 p

rod

uct

su

ite.

$

e M

OD

IS a

lgo

rith

m u

sed

to

map

bu

rned

are

as t

akes

ad

-va

nta

ge o

f sp

ectr

al,

tem

po

ral,

and

str

uct

ura

l ch

ange

s (R

oy

et a

l., 2

005)

. It

det

ects

th

e ap

pro

xim

ate

dat

e o

f b

urn

ing

for

500

m a

reas

by

loca

tin

g th

e o

ccu

rren

ce o

f ra

pid

ch

ange

s in

dai

ly s

urf

ace

re%

ecta

nce

tim

e se

ries

dat

a. $

e al

gori

thm

m

aps

the

spat

ial

exte

nt

of

rece

nt

're

s an

d n

ot

of

're

s th

at

hav

e o

ccu

rred

in

pre

vio

us

seas

on

s o

r ye

ars.

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algo

rith

m

is a

pp

lied

in

dep

end

entl

y to

geo

-lo

cate

d p

ixel

s o

ver

a lo

ng

tim

e-se

ries

of

re%

ecta

nce

ob

serv

atio

ns.

A b

i-d

irec

tio

nal

re-

%ec

tan

ce m

od

el i

s in

vert

ed a

gain

st m

ult

i-te

mp

ora

l re

%ec

-ta

nce

ob

serv

atio

ns

to p

rovi

de

pre

dic

ted

re%

ecta

nce

s an

d

un

cert

ain

ties

for

sub

seq

uen

t o

bse

rvat

ion

s. A

sta

tist

ical

mea

-su

re o

f th

e d

i&er

ence

bet

wee

n t

he

ob

serv

ed B

i-D

irec

tion

al

Surf

ace

Re'

ecta

nce

(B

RF

) an

d t

he

pre

dic

ted

BR

F a

t th

e vi

ewin

g an

d i

llu

min

atin

g an

gles

of

the

ob

serv

atio

n i

s u

sed

to

qu

anti

fy c

han

ges

fro

m a

pre

vio

usl

y o

bse

rved

sta

te. L

arge

d

iscr

epan

cies

bet

wee

n p

red

icte

d a

nd

mea

sure

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alu

es a

re

attr

ibu

ted

to

ch

ange

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emp

ora

l co

nst

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t is

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o d

i&er

-en

tiat

e b

etw

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tem

po

rary

ch

ange

s, s

uch

as

shad

ow

s, t

hat

ar

e sp

ectr

ally

sim

ilar

to

mo

re p

ersi

sten

t '

re i

nd

uce

d c

han

g-es

. $e

iden

ti'

cati

on

of t

he

dat

e o

f bu

rnin

g is

co

nst

rain

ed b

y th

e fr

equ

ency

an

d o

ccu

rren

ce o

f m

issi

ng

ob

serv

atio

ns

and

to

re%

ect

this

, th

e al

gori

thm

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run

to

rep

ort

th

e b

urn

dat

e w

ith

an

8 d

ay p

reci

sio

n.

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MO

DIS

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rned

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rod

uct

, an

d t

he

det

ails

of

the

algo

rith

m, a

re d

escr

ibed

in

Ro

y et

al.,

(2

002)

; Ro

y et

al.

(200

5); a

nd

Ro

y et

al.

(200

8). A

s w

ell,

ho

w

to u

se t

he

pro

du

ct i

s d

etai

led

in

th

e M

OD

IS C

oll

ecti

on

5

Bu

rned

Are

a P

rod

uct

- M

CD

45 u

ser’

s gu

ide.

$e

glo

bal

mo

nth

ly M

OD

IS m

osa

ics

of

bu

rned

are

as a

re

avai

lab

le

for

visu

aliz

atio

n

in

the

3-d

imen

sio

nal

W

orl

d

Win

dvi

rtu

al g

lob

e. W

orl

d W

ind

was

dev

elo

ped

by

NA

SA

Am

es R

esea

rch

Cen

tre,

an

d i

s d

istr

ibu

ted

as

op

en s

ou

rce

so>

war

e. A

t th

e sa

me

tim

e, t

he

MO

DIS

Bu

rned

Are

a P

rod

-

uct

is

avai

lab

le f

ree

of

char

ge f

rom

th

e L

and

Pro

cess

es D

is-

trib

ute

d A

ctiv

e A

rch

ive

Cen

ter

(LP

-DA

AC

) u

sin

g th

e E

OS

Dat

a G

atew

ay w

eb i

nte

rfac

e lo

cate

d a

t h

ttp

://r

ever

b.ec

ho.

nas

a.go

v. A

dd

itio

nal

ly,

an >

p s

erve

r is

mai

nta

ined

by

the

Un

iver

sity

of

Mar

ylan

d,

mo

stly

to

pro

vid

e su

pp

ort

to

th

e

scie

nce

use

rs w

ho

nee

d t

o d

ow

nlo

ad s

yste

mat

ical

ly l

arge

volu

mes

of

dat

a, a

nd

im

ple

men

t th

eir

ow

n a

pp

lica

tio

ns.

MO

DIS

Bu

rned

Are

a (M

CD

45)

imag

es a

re o

&er

ed t

hro

ugh

Web

Fir

e M

app

er, r

un

nin

g o

n t

he

FIR

MS

app

lica

tio

n.

Tab

le 4

.4.5

: Tec

hn

ical

Pro

'le

fo

r F

ire

Det

ecti

on

an

d M

on

ito

rin

g Sy

stem

Top

icD

etec

tio

n a

nd

gro

wth

mo

nit

ori

ng

of

acti

ve w

ild

're

"em

ati

c co

nte

nt

Act

ive

're

are

as, d

i&er

enti

ated

by

rad

iati

ve p

ow

er

Acc

ess

Up

on

reg

istr

atio

n v

ia i

nte

rnet

Sca

le1

: 50,

000

Acc

ura

cy<

10

% f

alse

ala

rm

Are

al

cove

rage

Glo

bal

Spa

tia

l re

solu

tion

250

m

Tim

elin

ess

Max

imu

m 1

day

Up

da

te f

req

uen

cy1

day

Da

ta f

orm

at

Ras

ter

Map

s

Valid

ation o

f M

OD

IS F

IRE

Pro

ducts

$e

vali

dat

ion

of

the

MO

DIS

act

ive

're

s an

d b

urn

ed a

rea

pro

du

ct r

elie

s m

ain

ly o

n t

he

use

of

hig

h-r

eso

luti

on

Lan

dsa

t

scen

es.

Stag

e 1

vali

dat

ion

was

co

nd

uct

ed p

aral

lel

to t

he

de-

velo

pm

ent

of

the

pro

du

ct w

ith

a n

um

ber

of

vali

dat

ion

sit

es

in A

fric

a, A

ust

rali

a, B

razi

l, Si

ber

ia a

nd

th

e U

nit

ed S

tate

s.

Stag

e 2

vali

dat

ion

of

the

Lev

el 3

co

mb

ined

Aq

ua-

Ter

ra

bu

rned

are

a p

rod

uct

is c

urr

entl

y o

ngo

ing.

A c

om

pre

hen

sive

vali

dat

ion

ove

r A

fric

a h

as b

een

co

mp

lete

d,

and

val

idat

ion

in E

uro

pe,

In

dia

, Au

stra

lia

and

Sib

eria

is

curr

entl

y o

ngo

ing.

Tak

ing

into

acc

ou

nt

the

stat

e o

f d

evel

op

men

t in

Det

ecti

ng

and

Mo

nit

ori

ng

Fir

es w

orl

dw

ide

as d

escr

ibed

ab

ove

, a T

ech

-

nic

al P

ro'

le w

as g

ener

ated

as

sho

wn

in

Tab

le 4

.4.5

.

Page 75: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

75

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4F

igu

re 4

.4.9

: M

OD

IS B

urn

ed A

rea

Pro

du

ct

Fig

ure

4.4

.10:

M

OD

IS B

urn

ed A

rea

Pro

du

ct, G

reec

e a&

ec-

ted

are

as a

>er

occ

urr

ence

s o

f 20

07 '

res

Bu

rned

Are

a (B

A)

pro

du

ct (

le>

bar

) an

d A

ctiv

e F

ire

(AF

) p

rod

uct

(ri

ght

bar

). $

e b

lack

lin

es s

ho

w t

he

glo

bal

per

cen

tage

of

un

map

ped

pix

els

in t

he

mo

nth

ly b

urn

ed a

rea

pro

du

ct; t

he

red

lin

es s

ho

w t

he

glo

bal

ave

rage

of

the

per

cen

tage

of

un

map

ped

day

s ac

cord

ing

to t

he

acti

ve p

rod

uct

.

Fig

ure

4.4

.11:

Mo

nth

ly h

isto

gram

s o

f '

re a

&ec

ted

are

as b

y co

nti

nen

t d

etec

ted

by

MO

DIS

dat

a

Page 76: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

76

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 App

rais

al R

esults

In r

atin

g th

e o

per

atio

nal

ben

e"ts

of

a F

ire

Det

ecti

on

an

d

Mo

nit

ori

ng

Syst

em,

mo

re t

han

75

% o

f en

d-u

sers

gav

e a

hig

h b

ene'

t sc

ore

wit

h r

egar

d t

o c

riti

cal

infr

ast

ruct

ure

, fo

l-

low

ed b

y h

um

anit

aria

n a

id,

hea

lth

car

e an

d s

ecu

rity

(al

l

abo

ut

60 %

) (F

igu

re 4

.4.1

2).

$es

e re

sult

s ar

e si

mil

ar t

o

tho

se f

or

the

Fir

e R

isk

Map

(F

igu

re 4

.4.2

), b

ut

wit

h m

ore

or

less

hig

her

sco

res

for

ben

e't

for

hu

man

itar

ian

aid

an

d

hea

lth

car

e,

as c

an b

e ex

pec

ted

fo

r a

syst

em f

or

earl

y w

arn

-

ing,

ale

rt a

nd

mo

nit

ori

ng

of

actu

al d

isas

ter

even

ts,

in c

om

-

par

iso

n w

ith

a m

ap d

epic

tin

g m

ere

dis

aste

r ri

sks.

$is

tre

nd

in

th

e en

d-u

sers

’ ap

pra

isal

of

op

erat

ion

al b

en-

e'ts

was

co

n'

rmed

by

the

no

n-e

nd

-use

rs (

Fig

ure

4.4

.13)

,

bu

t w

ith

dis

tin

ctly

lo

wer

hig

h b

ene'

t sc

ore

s es

pec

iall

y w

ith

rega

rd t

o s

ecu

rity

, hu

man

itar

ian

aid

an

d h

ealt

h c

are.

Reg

ard

ing

the

stra

teg

ic b

ene"

ts o

f a

Fir

e D

etec

tio

n a

nd

Mo

nit

ori

ng

Syst

em,

end

-use

rs c

on

sid

ered

it

as h

igh

ly b

en-

e'ci

al f

or

supp

ort

of p

reve

nti

ve s

trat

egie

s (>

75 %

) (F

igu

re

4.4.

14),

an

d a

lso

fo

r e"

cien

cy o

f pl

ans

and

pol

icie

s an

d r

e-

du

cin

g lo

sses

in

pu

blic

eco

nom

y (b

oth

>60

%).

$e

rela

tive

ly

hig

h b

ene'

t sc

ore

fo

r th

e p

urp

ose

s o

f p

reve

nti

on

, as

crib

ed

to a

det

ecti

on

an

d m

on

ito

rin

g sy

stem

, o

f th

e sa

me

ord

er o

f

mag

nit

ud

e as

fo

r th

e co

rres

po

nd

ing

risk

map

(F

igu

re 4

.4.4

),

pro

bab

ly r

e%ec

ts t

he

info

rmat

ion

po

ten

tial

of

his

tori

cal d

ata

sets

pro

vid

ed b

y su

ch a

sys

tem

, bu

t co

uld

be

par

tial

ly a

ttri

b-

ute

d a

lso

to

th

e u

se o

f an

up

-to

-dat

e m

on

ito

rin

g in

form

a-

tio

n i

n t

he

con

text

of

stra

tegi

c p

lan

nin

g o

f '

re c

on

tain

men

t

op

erat

ion

s.

$e

asse

ssm

ents

of

stra

teg

ic b

ene"

ts

pro

vid

ed b

y n

on

-

end

-use

rs f

or

(Fig

ure

4.4

.15)

are

ver

y si

mil

ar t

o t

ho

se b

y

end

-use

rs, b

ut

wit

h a

gen

eral

tre

nd

to

lo

wer

sco

res

for

hig

h

ben

e't

rati

ng.

Reg

ard

ing

the

crit

ical

ity

of

spec

i"c

pro

du

ct f

eatu

res,

mo

re

than

60

% o

f en

d-u

sers

em

ph

asiz

e th

emat

ic c

onte

nt,

acc

u-

racy

, upd

ate

freq

uen

cy, a

real

cov

erag

e an

d t

imel

ines

s as

mo

re

Fig

ure

4.4

.12:

Op

erat

ion

al B

ene'

ts o

f F

ire

Det

ecti

on

an

d M

on

ito

rin

g Sy

s-

tem

(en

d-u

sers

)

Fig

ure

4.4

.13:

Op

erat

ion

al B

ene'

ts o

f F

ire

Det

ecti

on

an

d M

on

ito

rin

g Sy

s-

tem

(n

on

-en

d-u

sers

)

Fig

ure

4.4

.14:

Str

ateg

ic B

ene'

ts o

f F

ire

Det

ecti

on

an

d M

on

ito

rin

g Sy

stem

(en

d-u

sers

)

Fig

ure

4.4

.15:

Str

ateg

ic B

ene'

ts o

f F

ire

Det

ecti

on

an

d M

on

ito

rin

g Sy

stem

(no

n-e

nd

-use

rs)

Fig

ure

4.4

.16:

Cri

tica

lity

of

pro

du

ct f

eatu

res

of

Fir

e D

etec

tio

n a

nd

Mo

nit

o-

rin

g Sy

stem

(en

d-u

sers

)

Fig

ure

4.4

.17:

Cri

tica

lity

of

pro

du

ct f

eatu

res

of

Fir

e D

etec

tio

n a

nd

Mo

nit

o-

rin

g Sy

stem

(n

on

-en

d-u

sers

)

Page 77: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

77

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4o

r le

ss e

qu

ally

im

po

rtan

t in

a F

ire

Det

ecti

on

an

d M

on

ito

r-

ing

Syst

em (

Fig

ure

4.4

.16)

. A

s to

be

exp

ecte

d f

or

a d

etec

-

tio

n a

nd

mo

nit

ori

ng

syst

em, u

pdat

e fr

equ

ency

, i.e

. rep

etit

ion

tim

e, w

as r

ated

hig

her

in

co

mp

aris

on

wit

h t

he

Fir

e R

isk

Map

(F

igu

re 4

.4.1

6).

Scal

e, s

pati

al r

esol

uti

on a

nd

dat

a f

or-

mat

wer

e co

nsi

der

ed le

ss i

mp

ort

ant,

as

was

th

e ca

se f

or

Fir

e

Ris

k M

aps.

No

n-e

nd

-use

rs

con

sid

ered

upd

ate

freq

uen

cy a

nd

tim

elin

ess

the

mo

st c

riti

cal

feat

ure

s (F

igu

re 4

.4.1

7).

In c

om

par

iso

n t

o

end

-use

rs,

they

rat

ed s

cale

an

d t

imel

ines

s as

mo

re c

riti

cal,

bu

t sp

atia

l re

solu

tion

, ac

cura

cy a

nd

esp

ecia

lly

dat

a f

orm

at

as le

ss c

riti

cal.

4.5

L

an

dsli

de H

azard

Assessm

en

t

Ira

sem

a A

lcán

tara

Aya

la

$e

inst

abil

ity

of

slo

pes

h

as

bee

n

de'

ned

b

y B

run

sden

(198

4) a

s th

e m

ass

mo

vem

ent

pro

cess

es i

nvo

lved

in

th

e

mo

vem

ent

of

hil

lslo

pe

mat

eria

ls

un

der

th

e in

%u

ence

o

f

grav

ity

and

wit

ho

ut

a tr

ansp

ort

age

nt

such

as

wat

er,

air

or

ice.

$e

Wo

rkin

g P

arty

on

Wo

rld

Lan

dsl

ide

Inve

nto

ry i

den

-

ti'

es a

lan

dsl

ide

as “

the

mo

vem

ent

of

a m

ass

of

rock

, deb

ris

or

eart

h d

ow

n a

slo

pe”

(C

rud

en, 1

991)

.

$e

deg

ree

of

lan

dsl

ide

haz

ard

an

d it

s im

pac

t o

n s

oci

ety

are

very

mu

ch r

elat

ed t

o t

he

velo

city

of

mo

vem

ent.

Ext

rem

ely

rap

id l

and

slid

es w

ith

vel

oci

ties

of

5 m

/sec

occ

urr

ing

on

vuln

erab

le c

om

mu

nit

ies

can

pro

du

ce c

on

sid

erab

le d

amag

e,

wh

erea

s sl

ow

mo

vem

ents

may

a&

ect

stru

ctu

res,

alt

ho

ugh

they

can

be

mai

nta

ined

(T

able

4.5

.1).

Cla

ssD

escr

ipti

onT

ypic

al

velo

city

Ex

pec

ted

da

ma

ges

an

d p

opu

lati

on r

eact

ion

1E

xtre

mel

y ra

pid

5 m

/sec

2V

ery

rap

id3

m/m

inD

isas

ter

of

maj

or

vio

len

ce; b

uil

din

gs d

estr

oye

d b

y im

pac

t o

f d

isp

lace

d

mat

eria

l; m

any

dea

ths;

esc

ape

un

lik

ely

3R

apid

1.8

m/h

So

me

live

s lo

st; v

elo

city

to

o g

reat

to

per

mit

all

per

son

s to

esc

ape

4M

od

erat

e13

m/m

on

thE

scap

e ev

acu

atio

n p

oss

ible

; str

uct

ure

s d

estr

oye

d

5Sl

ow

1.6

m/y

ear

Rem

edia

l co

nst

ruct

ion

s ca

n b

e u

nd

erta

ken

du

rin

g m

ove

men

t; i

nse

nsi

-

tive

str

uct

ure

s ca

n b

e m

ain

tain

ed w

ith

fre

qu

ent

mai

nte

nan

ce w

ork

if

tota

l mo

vem

ent

is n

ot

larg

e d

uri

ng

a p

arti

cula

r ac

cele

rati

on

ph

ase

6V

ery

slo

w>

15 m

m/y

ear

So

me

per

man

ent

stru

ctu

res

un

dam

aged

by

mo

vem

ent

7E

xtre

mel

y sl

ow

<15

mm

/yea

rIm

per

cep

tib

le w

ith

ou

t in

stru

men

ts; c

on

stru

ctio

n p

oss

ible

wit

h p

re-

cau

tio

ns

Fo

r a

few

dec

ades

, lan

dsl

ides

hav

e b

een

cla

ssi'

ed a

cco

rdin

g

to d

i&er

ent

asp

ects

, su

ch a

s m

orp

ho

logi

cal

attr

ibu

tes;

typ

e

and

vel

oci

ty o

f m

ove

men

t; a

ge o

f th

e m

ove

men

t; d

egre

e o

f

acti

vity

; an

d c

lim

ate.

Lan

dsl

ides

can

be

typ

olo

gica

lly

char

acte

rize

d a

s o

utl

ined

in

Tab

le 4

.5.2

(V

arn

es, 1

978;

EP

OC

H, 2

003)

:

Fal

ls i

nvo

lve

the

det

ach

men

t o

f m

ater

ials

fro

m s

teep

slo

pes

; m

ove

men

t ta

kes

pla

ce b

y fa

llin

g, b

ou

nci

ng

or

roll

ing.

Top

ples

res

ult

fro

m t

he

ove

rth

row

or

forw

ard

ro

tati

on

al

mo

vem

ent,

ou

t o

f th

e sl

op

e, o

f a

mas

s o

f so

il a

nd

/or

rock

in

rel

atio

n t

o a

n a

xis.

Slid

es c

an b

e re

gard

ed a

s th

e d

ow

nsl

op

e m

ove

men

t o

f

soil

an

d/o

r ro

ck m

asse

s o

n a

su

rfac

e o

f ru

ptu

re.

Flo

ws

are

spat

iall

y co

nti

nu

ou

s m

ove

men

ts i

n w

hic

h

Tab

le 4

.5.1

: Mas

s m

ove

men

t cl

assi

'ca

tio

n b

ased

on

vel

oci

ty o

f d

isp

lace

men

t (A

ust

rali

an G

eom

ech

anic

s S

oci

ety,

200

2 a>

er

Cru

den

an

d V

arn

es, 1

996)

Page 78: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

78

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 shea

r su

rfac

es a

re s

mal

l, cl

ose

ly s

pac

ed a

nd

usu

ally

no

t

pre

serv

ed a

>er

th

e ev

ent.

$e

dis

trib

uti

on

of

velo

ci-

ties

in

th

e d

isp

laci

ng

mas

s is

sim

ilar

to

a v

isco

us

%u

id

(Cru

den

an

d V

arn

es, 1

996)

.

Lat

eral

spr

ead

s im

ply

a l

ater

al e

xten

sio

n o

f a

coh

esiv

e

soil

or

rock

mas

s co

mb

ined

wit

h a

gen

eral

su

bsi

den

ce

of

the

frac

ture

d m

ass

of

coh

esiv

e m

ater

ial

into

so

>er

un

der

lyin

g m

ater

ial.

$e

rup

ture

su

rfac

e is

no

t a

sur-

face

of

inte

nse

sh

ear.

Sp

read

s m

ay r

esu

lt f

rom

liq

uef

ac-

tio

n o

r %

ow

of

the

so>

er m

ater

ial (

Var

nes

, 197

8).

$er

e ar

e d

i&er

ent

fact

ors

th

at c

on

trib

ute

dyn

amic

ally

to t

he

chan

ge o

f sl

op

e st

abil

ity.

Fre

qu

entl

y, it

is t

he

com

bin

atio

n o

f

nat

ura

l p

roce

sses

an

d h

um

an a

ctiv

itie

s th

at d

eter

min

es t

he

“pre

par

atio

n” o

f th

e sl

op

es t

o b

eco

me

un

stab

le.

Am

on

g th

e

nat

ura

l fa

cto

rs a

re h

ills

lop

e m

ater

ial

pro

per

ties

, in

clu

din

g

geo

logi

cal

stru

ctu

res

(i.e

. jo

ints

, fa

ult

s, f

ract

ure

s, b

edd

ing

and

fo

liat

ion

pla

nes

, in

clin

atio

n,

etc.

), a

nd

tec

ton

ic u

pli

>.

Wea

ther

ing

and

ero

sio

n,

gro

un

dw

ater

lev

el,

hyd

rolo

gica

l

con

dit

ion

s, v

ibra

tio

ns

pro

du

ced

by

eart

hq

uak

es,

and

pre

s-

ence

of

old

mo

vem

ents

are

als

o v

ery

imp

ort

ant.

In

ter

ms

of

anth

rop

oge

nic

co

nd

itio

nin

g, d

efo

rest

atio

n, l

and

use

ch

ange

,

rem

ova

l o

f la

tera

l su

pp

ort

by

con

stru

ctio

n o

f te

rrac

es s

uch

as c

uts

an

d m

inin

g, p

lay

a si

gni'

can

t ro

le a

s d

eter

min

ing

fact

ors

fo

r h

ill s

lop

e in

stab

ilit

y.

Lan

dsl

ide

trig

geri

ng

mec

han

ism

s ex

ceed

th

resh

old

s o

f sl

op

e

resi

stan

ce; t

hey

als

o in

volv

e b

oth

nat

ura

l an

d h

um

an in

du

ced

pro

cess

es. P

reci

pit

atio

n, s

eism

icit

y an

d v

olc

anic

act

ivit

y ar

e

com

pri

sed

wit

hin

th

e m

ain

nat

ura

l tr

igge

rin

g m

ech

anis

ms,

wh

erea

s al

l k

ind

s o

f ac

tivi

ties

a&

ecti

ng

or

tran

sfo

rmin

g th

e

mo

rph

olo

gy

of

a sl

op

e an

d c

ausi

ng

an i

nst

anta

neo

us

fail

ure

can

be

con

sid

ered

as

hu

man

in

du

ced

.

Sym

pto

ms

of

inst

abil

ity

of

slo

pes

can

be

easi

ly r

eco

gniz

ed

even

by

no

n-t

ech

nic

al p

erso

nn

el.

Gen

erat

ion

of

crac

ks

and

step

s, t

he

incl

inat

ion

of

vege

tati

on

an

d o

ther

ob

ject

s, u

n-

usu

al h

um

ps

in t

he

gro

un

d,

stre

et p

avem

ents

or

sid

ewal

ks,

or

o&

set

fen

ce li

nes

, are

co

mm

on

sig

ns

of

inst

abil

ity

that

can

be

easi

ly i

den

ti'

ed.

Giv

en i

ts g

eom

orp

ho

logi

cal

nat

ure

, th

e fo

otp

rin

ts o

f la

nd

-

slid

es o

n t

he

lan

dsc

ape

are

valu

able

fea

ture

s fo

r th

eir

iden

-

ti'

cati

on

, cl

assi

'ca

tio

n,

and

map

pin

g. A

ctiv

e la

nd

slid

es a

re

mo

re e

asil

y re

cogn

ized

th

an t

ho

se d

orm

ant,

ab

and

on

ed o

r

in a

rel

ict

stat

e. M

ore

ove

r, s

emi-

arid

co

nd

itio

ns

also

pro

vid

e

bet

ter

scen

ario

s fo

r la

nd

slid

es i

den

ti'

cati

on

, as

veg

etat

ion

do

es n

ot

cove

r th

eir

mo

rph

olo

gica

l at

trib

ute

s as

in

th

e ca

se

of

tro

pic

al e

nvi

ron

men

ts.

Geo

mo

rph

olo

gica

l m

app

ing

has

bee

n d

emo

nst

rate

d t

o b

e

on

e o

f th

e b

est

way

s to

ill

ust

rate

an

d s

ynth

esiz

e re

leva

nt

lan

dfo

rms

and

pro

cess

es (

Fig

ure

4.5

.1).

$ey

rep

rese

nt

ac-

tual

'el

d c

on

dit

ion

s an

d o

bse

rvat

ion

s an

d c

an b

e in

tegr

ated

for

mo

del

lin

g b

y d

igit

al a

nal

ysis

, bas

ed o

n e

.g. D

igit

al E

leva

-

tio

n M

od

els

(DE

M)

wit

hin

GIS

pla

tfo

rms.

Tab

le 4

.5.2

: Mas

s m

ove

men

t cl

assi

'ca

tio

n b

ased

on

pro

cess

typ

e an

d m

ater

ial (

Cru

den

an

d V

arn

es 1

996;

EP

OC

H, 2

003)

Mov

emen

t T

ype

Typ

e of

ma

teri

al

Ro

ckD

ebri

sS

oil

Fa

llR

ock

Fal

lD

ebri

s F

all

So

il F

all

Top

ple

Ro

ck T

op

ple

Deb

ris

To

pp

leS

oil

To

pp

le

Sli

de

(Rot

ati

ona

l)si

ngl

e (s

lum

p)

mu

ltip

le

succ

essi

ve

sin

gle

mu

ltip

le

succ

essi

ve

sin

gle

mu

ltip

le

succ

essi

ve

Sli

de

(Tra

nsi

tion

al)

Non

-rot

ati

ona

l

Blo

ck S

lid

eB

lock

Sli

de

Slab

Sli

de

Pla

na

rR

ock

Sli

de

Deb

ris

Slid

eM

ud

Sli

de

La

tera

l sp

rea

din

gR

ock

Sp

read

ing

Deb

ris

Spre

adS

oil

(D

ebri

s) S

pre

adin

g

Flo

wR

ock

Flo

w (

Sack

un

g)D

ebri

s F

low

So

il F

low

Com

ple

x (

wit

h r

un

-ou

t or

ch

an

ge o

f

beh

avi

our

dow

nsl

ope)

e.g.

Ro

ck A

vala

nch

ee.

g. F

low

Sli

de

e.g.

Slu

mp

- e

arth

%o

w

Fig

ure

4.5

.1:

Geo

mo

rph

olo

gica

l m

ap o

f m

ass

mo

vem

ent

pro

cess

es a

lon

g th

e D

ank

hu

ta K

ho

la R

iver

, E

aste

rn N

epal

(Bru

nsd

en, 2

001)

Page 79: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

79

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4m

ap

s

$er

e is

a v

ast

bo

dy

of

lite

ratu

re c

on

cern

ing

the

gen

erat

ion

of

lan

dsl

ide

susc

epti

bil

ity

map

s. $

ey a

re u

sual

ly b

ased

on

lan

dsl

ide

inve

nto

ries

an

d c

an b

e d

evel

op

ed b

y u

sin

g re

mo

te

sen

sin

g te

chn

iqu

es a

nd

GIS

, o

r th

e ap

pli

cati

on

of

stat

isti

-

cal

met

ho

ds.

Sp

atia

l d

istr

ibu

tio

n o

f fa

cto

rs i

n%

uen

cin

g th

e

stab

ilit

y o

f a

slo

pe

can

be

incl

ud

ed (

freq

uen

tly

nat

ura

l el

-

emen

ts),

an

d p

arti

cula

r an

alys

is o

r m

od

elli

ng

can

be

per

-

form

ed,

dep

end

ing

on

th

e tr

igge

rin

g m

ech

anis

m (

e.g.

pre

-

cip

itat

ion

, ea

rth

qu

ake,

or

volc

anic

act

ivit

y).

$e

qu

alit

y o

f

the

lan

dsl

ide

susc

epti

bil

ity

map

s p

rod

uce

d a

nd

th

e re

pre

-

sen

tati

on

of

the

real

ter

rain

co

nd

itio

ns

are

dep

end

ent

on

the

accu

racy

of

info

rmat

ion

use

d a

s an

in

pu

t. O

f p

arti

cula

r

imp

ort

ance

is

the

info

rmat

ion

on

to

po

grap

hy

and

th

e ad

e-

qu

ate

char

acte

riza

tio

n o

f h

ills

lop

e m

ater

ials

. $e

use

fuln

ess

of

map

s is

no

t so

lely

rel

ated

to

th

e sc

ale

bu

t al

so t

o t

he

accu

-

racy

of

the

inp

ut

dat

a. A

n e

xam

ple

of

a la

nd

slid

e su

scep

tib

il-

ity

map

is

sho

wn

in

Fig

ure

4.5

.2.

$e

mai

n d

i&er

ence

bet

wee

n l

and

slid

e su

scep

tib

ilit

y an

d

lan

dsl

ide

haz

ard

map

s is

th

at t

he

latt

er i

ncl

ud

e an

in

ten

sity

-

freq

uen

cy r

elat

ion

ship

, an

d s

pec

i'c

asso

ciat

ion

s ar

e m

ade

wit

h

trig

geri

ng

mec

han

ism

s (F

igu

re

4.5.

3).

GIS

is

m

ost

exte

nsi

vely

use

d f

or

anal

yzin

g la

nd

slid

e h

azar

d a

nd

ris

k.

No

net

hel

ess,

as

po

inte

d o

ut

by

Car

rara

et

al.

(199

9),

ther

e

are

seve

ral p

rob

lem

atic

al a

spec

ts t

hat

nee

d t

o b

e ad

dre

ssed

:

“Co

mp

ute

r-ge

ner

ated

res

ult

s …

. co

nsi

der

ed t

o b

e m

ore

ob

ject

ive

and

acc

ura

te t

han

pro

du

cts

der

ived

by

exp

erts

in t

he

con

ven

tio

nal

way

th

rou

gh e

xten

sive

'el

d m

ap-

pin

g;

$e

use

of

GIS

an

d t

he

pro

du

ctio

n o

f le

ss a

ccu

rate

haz

-

ard

map

s b

y u

sers

th

at a

re n

ot

exp

erts

in e

arth

sci

ence

s;

$e

incr

ease

d f

ocu

s o

n t

he

use

of

new

co

mp

uta

tio

nal

tech

niq

ues

fo

r la

nd

slid

e h

azar

d a

sses

smen

t, a

nd

less

in-

tere

st o

n t

he

coll

ecti

on

of

reli

able

dat

a”.

Fig

ure

4.5

.2:

Lan

dsl

ide

susc

epti

bil

ity

map

of

the

Kak

ud

a-

Yah

iko

Mo

un

tain

s (A

yale

w a

nd

Yam

agis

hi,

200

5)

Fig

ure

4.5

.3:

Lan

dsl

ides

haz

ard

in

du

ced

by

rain

fall

(u

pp

er

'gu

re)

and

ear

thq

uak

es (

low

er '

gure

), b

y u

sin

g th

e N

GI

met

ho

d (

Nad

im e

t al

., 20

13)

Page 80: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

80

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 Lan

dsl

ide

asse

ssm

ents

hav

e b

een

un

der

tak

en o

n l

oca

l, re

-

gio

nal

, an

d g

lob

al s

cale

s. H

ow

ever

, th

eir

cert

ain

ty i

s d

eter

-

min

ed b

y th

e in

form

atio

n u

sed

to

car

ry o

ut

such

ass

ess-

men

ts. F

req

uen

tly,

a s

erie

s o

f as

sum

pti

on

s ar

e m

ade

in o

rder

to p

rod

uce

lan

dsl

ide

haz

ard

or

risk

ass

essm

ents

. Ap

pro

ach

-

es f

or

lan

dsl

ide

haz

ard

an

d r

isk

eva

luat

ion

s (F

igu

re 4

.5.4

)

com

pri

se i

nfo

rmat

ion

th

at d

eter

min

es t

he

susc

epti

bil

ity

of

a gi

ven

ter

rain

to

lan

d s

lid

ing,

tri

gger

ing

mec

han

ism

s, v

ul-

ner

abil

ity

and

exp

ose

d p

op

ula

tio

n (

Nad

im e

t al

., 20

06).

Am

on

g th

e o

per

atio

nal

ben

e"ts

, m

ore

th

an 8

5 %

of

end

-

use

rs g

ave

the

pro

du

ct a

hig

h b

ene'

t ra

tin

g w

ith

reg

ard

to

the

mai

nte

nan

ce o

f cr

itic

al i

nfr

ast

ruct

ure

, fo

llo

wed

by

secu

-

rity

an

d h

um

anit

aria

n a

id (

bo

th n

earl

y 60

%)

(Fig

ure

4.5

.5).

$is

see

ms

pla

usi

ble

in v

iew

of

the

stru

ctu

ral d

amag

e w

hic

h

can

be

cau

sed

by

lan

dsl

ides

, an

d t

he

info

rmat

ion

po

ten

tial

of

a L

and

slid

e H

azar

d M

ap f

or

loca

l ri

sk a

sses

smen

t an

d

pre

par

edn

ess.

$e

end

-use

rs’

app

rais

al w

as m

ore

or

less

con

'rm

ed b

y th

e n

on

-en

d-u

sers

wh

o g

ave

even

so

me

mo

re

emp

has

is t

o t

he

hig

h b

ene'

t fo

r cr

itic

al i

nfr

ast

ruct

ure

, wit

h-

ou

t an

y lo

w b

ene'

t ap

pra

isal

(F

igu

re 4

.5.6

).

Reg

ard

ing

the

stra

teg

ic b

ene"

ts, e

nd

-use

rs e

mp

has

ized

th

e

pro

du

ct’s

hig

h b

ene'

t m

ost

ly f

or

the

supp

ort

of p

reve

nti

ve

stra

tegi

es (

>70

%)

and

th

e e"

cien

cy o

f pla

ns

and

pol

icie

s (>

65

%),

fo

llo

wed

by

a >

60 %

sco

re f

or

hig

h b

ene'

t fo

r re

du

cin

g

loss

es in

pu

blic

eco

nom

y (F

igu

re 4

.5.7

). $

is a

pp

rais

al c

lear

ly

re%

ects

th

e im

po

rtan

ce o

f h

azar

d i

nfo

rmat

ion

fo

r p

reve

n-

tive

pla

nn

ing.

In

co

mp

aris

on

, b

ene'

ts t

o p

ubl

ic a

ccep

tan

ce

of p

lan

s an

d p

olic

ies

and

su

ppor

t of

su

perr

egio

nal

con

sist

ency

and

coo

pera

tion

wer

e se

en a

s le

ss c

riti

cal

(bo

th w

ith

hig

h

ben

e't

sco

res

<45

%),

pro

bab

ly w

ith

res

pec

t to

th

e sp

eci'

c

loca

l ch

arac

teri

stic

s o

f la

nd

slid

e h

azar

d.

$is

tre

nd

in

th

e

end

-use

rs a

pp

rais

al i

s m

ost

ly c

on

'rm

ed b

y th

e n

on

-en

d-

use

rs, w

ith

a g

ener

al t

end

ency

to

war

ds

low

er b

ene'

t ra

tin

gs

(Fig

ure

4.5

.8).

En

d-u

sers

rat

ed th

e cr

itic

alit

y o

f p

rod

uct

fea

ture

s as

gen

er-

ally

hig

h, w

ith

>60

% b

ut

for

upd

ate

freq

uen

cy a

nd

tim

elin

ess

(bo

th >

50 %

) (F

igu

re 4

.5.9

). $

e sl

igh

tly

low

er c

riti

cali

ty a

s-

sign

ed t

o t

he

tim

e-re

late

d f

eatu

res

mig

ht

re%

ect

the

imp

or-

tan

ce o

f th

e p

rod

uct

fo

r st

ruct

ura

l p

lan

nin

g, i

.e.

for

rath

er

lon

g-te

rm p

roce

sses

. In

co

mp

aris

on

, th

e cr

itic

alit

y as

sess

-

men

ts b

y n

on

-en

d-u

sers

are

mo

re d

i&er

enti

ated

, wit

h le

sser

emp

has

is o

n s

pati

al r

esol

uti

on a

nd

sca

le (

Fig

ure

4.5

.10)

. T

able

4.5

.3 T

ech

nic

al P

ro'

le f

or

Lan

dsl

ide

Haz

ard

Ass

ess-

men

t

Top

icA

reas

pro

ne

to r

ain

-tri

gger

ed

lan

dsl

ides

, co

mb

ined

wit

h a

n a

lert

fun

ctio

n

"em

ati

c co

nte

nt

To

po

grap

hic

bas

e m

ap

Lit

ho

log

y

Ped

olo

gy

Lan

du

se/l

and

cove

r

Rai

nfa

ll d

ata

Acc

ess

Web

-bas

ed i

nfo

rmav

tio

n s

yste

m,

un

rest

rict

ed a

cces

s

Sca

le1

: 50,

000

Acc

ura

cy80

% c

orr

ect

haz

ard

in

dic

atio

n

Are

al

cove

rage

Reg

ion

al

Spa

tia

l re

solu

tion

10 m

Tim

elin

ess

24 h

Up

da

te f

req

uen

cy24

h f

or

rain

fall

dat

a

Dat

a fo

rmat

No

t ap

pli

cab

le

Fig

ure

4.5

.4: A

pp

roac

h f

or

lan

dsl

ide

haz

ard

an

d r

isk

eva

lua-

tio

n (

Nad

im e

t al

., 20

06)

Tak

ing

into

acc

ou

nt

the

met

ho

do

logi

cal

stat

e o

f th

e ar

t in

Lan

dsl

ide

Haz

ard

Map

pin

g as

des

crib

ed a

bo

ve,

a T

ech

nic

al

Pro

'le

was

gen

erat

ed a

s sh

ow

n i

n T

able

4.5

.3.

Page 81: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

81

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4F

igu

re 4

.5.7

: Str

ateg

ic v

Ben

e'ts

of

Lan

dsl

ide

Haz

ard

Ass

ess-

men

t (e

nd

-use

rs a

pp

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.5

.8:

Stra

tegi

c B

ene'

ts o

f L

and

slid

e H

azar

d A

sses

s-

men

t (n

on

-en

d-u

sers

ap

pra

isal

)

Fig

ure

4.5

.9: C

riti

cali

ty o

f pro

du

ct fe

atu

res

of

Lan

dsl

ide

Ha-

zard

Ass

essm

ent

(en

d-u

sers

ap

pra

isal

)

Fig

ure

4.5

.10:

Cri

tica

lity

of

pro

du

ct f

eatu

res

of

Lan

dsl

ide

Haz

ard

Ass

essm

ent

(no

n-e

nd

-use

rs a

pp

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.5

.5:

Op

erat

ion

al B

ene'

ts o

f L

and

slid

e H

azar

d A

s-

sess

men

t (e

nd

-use

rs a

pp

rais

al)

Fig

ure

4.5

.6:

Op

erat

ion

al B

ene'

ts o

f L

and

slid

e H

azar

d A

s-

sess

men

t (n

on

-en

d-u

sers

ap

pra

isal

)

Page 82: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

82

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 Nie

ls v

an M

anen

an

d J

ohn

Tri

nd

er

A m

ere

ben

e't a

sses

smen

t of g

eoin

form

atio

n a

s p

rese

nte

d in

Ch

apte

rs 4

.1 t

o 4

.5 w

ou

ld b

e in

su#

cien

t w

ith

ou

t ad

dre

ssin

g

also

th

e as

pec

ts o

f d

ata

pro

visi

on

an

d r

elat

ed c

ost

s. A

vail

-

able

geo

info

rmat

ion

th

at w

ou

ld s

atis

fy t

he

tech

nic

al p

ro'

les

wh

ich

ser

ved

as

a re

fere

nce

fo

r th

e b

ene'

t as

sess

men

ts, d

if-

fers

gre

atly

in

ter

ms

of

dat

a so

urc

es a

s w

ell a

s co

sts,

kee

pin

g

in m

ind

th

at t

he

tech

nic

al p

ro'

les

wer

e d

esig

ned

to

ill

us-

trat

e th

e st

ate-

of-

the-

art,

i.e

. res

earc

h a

nd

dev

elo

pm

ent,

no

t

nec

essa

rily

th

e st

ate

of

op

erat

ion

al i

mp

lem

enta

tio

n.

$er

efo

re, p

rovi

sio

n o

f b

asic

geo

dat

a fo

r th

e re

fere

nce

pro

d-

uct

s as

des

crib

ed i

n t

he

tech

nic

al p

ro'

les

is d

iscu

ssed

in

the

foll

ow

ing,

as

wel

l as

th

e re

lati

ve c

ost

s, w

ith

em

ph

asis

on

rem

ote

ly s

ense

d d

ata.

So

me

con

sid

erat

ion

is

also

giv

en t

o

po

ten

tial

co

st r

edu

ctio

ns

by

mo

dif

yin

g th

e sp

eci'

cati

on

s in

the

tech

nic

al p

ro'

les.

Co

sts

of

the

pro

visi

on

of

geo

info

rma-

tio

n a

re n

ot

dir

ectl

y re

late

d t

o t

he

valu

e o

f ge

oin

form

atio

n

for

dis

aste

r ri

sk m

anag

emen

t. A

s ex

pre

ssed

in C

hap

ter

2, t

he

valu

e o

f ge

oin

form

atio

n c

an b

e as

sess

ed b

y co

sts

avo

ided

by

the

avai

lab

ilit

y o

f ge

oin

form

atio

n. I

n p

rin

cip

le t

his

is n

ot

re-

late

d t

o t

he

cost

s o

f ac

qu

irin

g th

e ge

oin

form

atio

n,

tho

ugh

it s

ho

uld

gu

ide

the

cho

ice

of

met

ho

ds

of

dat

a co

llec

tio

n i

n

ord

er t

o a

void

un

sust

ain

able

acq

uis

itio

n c

ost

s.

Dep

end

ing

on

th

e ge

ner

al a

pp

lica

tio

n o

bje

ctiv

e, t

he

refe

r-

ence

set

of

tech

nic

al p

ro'

les

can

be

cate

gori

zed

in

to t

hre

e

maj

or

typ

es o

f ge

osp

atia

l in

form

atio

n:

haz

ard

an

d r

isk

as-

sess

men

t m

app

ing,

haz

ard

an

d r

isk

mo

nit

ori

ng,

an

d d

am-

age

asse

ssm

ent

map

pin

g.

Hazard

and r

isk a

ssessm

ent

mapp

ing

Ris

k a

sses

smen

t fo

r th

e h

azar

ds

add

ress

ed in

Ch

apte

rs 4

.1 t

o

4.5,

exc

ept

for

dro

ugh

t vu

lner

abil

ity

wh

ich

req

uir

es r

egio

nal

to g

lob

al c

ove

rage

, te

nd

s to

req

uir

e d

etai

led

map

s m

ost

ly

wit

h h

igh

sp

atia

l res

olu

tio

ns:

Flo

od

Ris

k M

aps

wit

h 1

:2,0

00 t

o 1

:10,

000

map

sca

les

and

a s

pat

ial

reso

luti

on

of

1 m

to

5 m

, w

ith

an

up

dat

e

freq

uen

cy o

f 5

year

s;

Urb

an

Cla

ssi'

cati

on

fo

r E

arth

qu

ake

Ris

k

Map

pin

g

An

alys

is w

ith

1:2

,000

to

1:1

0,00

0 m

ap s

cale

, wit

h a

n a

c-

cura

cy o

f 1

m a

nd

an

up

dat

e fr

equ

ency

of

5 ye

ars;

Dro

ugh

t V

uln

erab

ilit

y M

app

ing

bas

ed o

n l

ow

sp

atia

l

reso

luti

on

dat

a w

ith

tim

ing

a fu

nct

ion

of

dro

ugh

t co

n-

dit

ion

s;

Fir

e R

isk

A

sses

smen

t w

ith

1:

200,

000

to

1:1,

000,

000

map

sca

le a

nd

sp

atia

l res

olu

tio

n o

f 25

0 m

to

1 k

m, w

ith

an a

ccu

racy

of

haz

ard

in

dic

atio

n o

f 80

%;

Lan

dsl

ide

Haz

ard

Ass

essm

ent

Map

pin

g w

ith

1:5

0,00

0

map

sca

le a

nd

sp

atia

l re

solu

tio

n o

f 10

m,

wit

h a

n u

p-

dat

e fr

equ

ency

of

24 h

fo

r ra

infa

ll d

ata.

Det

aile

d

geo

spat

ial

info

rmat

ion

re

qu

ired

fo

r %

oo

d

and

eart

hq

uak

e ri

sks

map

pin

g at

sca

les

of

1:2,

000

to 1

:10,

000,

wo

uld

be

exp

ensi

ve a

nd

tim

e co

nsu

min

g to

acq

uir

e. $

e

tech

nic

al p

ro'

les

ind

icat

e th

at t

he

map

pro

du

cts

can

be

in r

aste

r o

r ve

cto

r fo

rm.

$e

mo

st e

con

om

ic p

rod

uct

s d

e-

rive

d f

rom

eit

her

dig

ital

aer

ial i

mag

es o

r sa

tell

ite

imag

es a

re

ort

ho

ph

oto

map

s w

hic

h a

re r

aste

r p

rod

uct

s. V

ecto

r m

ap

pro

du

cts

are

mo

re t

ime

con

sum

ing

to p

rod

uce

bec

ause

th

ey

invo

lve

man

ual

in

terp

reta

tio

n o

f im

age

con

ten

t. H

ow

ever

,

the

use

r o

f th

e o

rth

op

ho

to m

aps

mu

st b

e fa

mil

iar

wit

h t

hei

r

inte

rpre

tati

on

.

Acq

uis

itio

n o

f ort

ho

ph

oto

map

s an

d D

igit

al E

leva

tio

n M

od

-

els

(DE

M)

may

be

do

ne

by

aeri

al im

agin

g, in

clu

din

g th

e ap

-

pli

cati

on

of

Un

man

ned

Air

bo

rne

Veh

icle

s (U

AV

), a

irb

orn

e

lid

ar (

Lig

ht

Det

ecti

on

an

d R

angi

ng)

, or

hig

h s

pat

ial

reso

lu-

tio

n s

atel

lite

sen

sors

wit

h s

pat

ial r

eso

luti

on

s o

f 0.

5 m

or

less

.

DE

Ms

may

als

o b

e ac

qu

ired

fro

m e

xist

ing

dat

abas

es.

Oth

er

info

rmat

ion

may

be

coll

ecte

d b

y in

sit

u s

urv

eys.

Fo

rwar

d

pla

nn

ing

and

ded

icat

ion

of

app

rop

riat

e '

nan

cial

res

ou

rces

are

req

uir

ed t

o c

ove

r, n

ot

on

ly t

he

%ig

ht

cam

pai

gns

for

the

acq

uis

itio

n o

f im

ages

or

lid

ar d

ata,

bu

t al

so t

he

pro

cess

ing

of

the

dat

a to

dig

ital

ort

ho

ph

oto

map

pro

du

cts.

Aer

ial

syst

ems

bas

ed

on

m

ediu

m

to

larg

e fo

rmat

ae

rial

cam

eras

or

smal

ler

form

at l

igh

t w

eigh

t ca

mer

as o

n U

AV

s

pro

vid

e o

verl

app

ing

aeri

al im

ages

th

at w

ill a

llo

w t

he

der

iva-

tio

n o

f m

ap d

ata

by

stan

dar

d d

igit

al a

eria

l ph

oto

gram

met

ry

met

ho

ds.

$e

accu

racy

of

thes

e p

rod

uct

s is

pri

mar

ily

de-

pen

den

t o

n t

he

Gro

un

d S

amp

lin

g D

ista

nce

(G

SD),

wh

ich

is a

fu

nct

ion

of

the

cam

era

pix

el s

ize,

th

e fo

cal

len

gth

of

the

cam

era

and

th

e %

yin

g h

eigh

t. W

hil

e au

tom

ated

pro

ced

ure

s

allo

w f

or

rap

id d

eriv

atio

n o

f el

evat

ion

s an

d o

rth

op

ho

to

map

s fr

om

imag

es, t

her

e is

sti

ll a

sig

ni'

can

t re

qu

irem

ent

for

inp

uts

fro

m h

igh

ly t

rain

ed t

ech

nic

al a

nd

pro

fess

ion

al p

er-

son

nel

.

Air

born

e li

dar

dat

a w

ill a

lso

be

acq

uir

ed f

rom

aer

ial s

yste

ms

wit

h a

ccu

raci

es o

f th

e o

rder

of

0.15

m t

o 0

.2 m

. $

e d

ata

pro

vid

er m

ay s

up

ply

var

iou

s le

vels

of

dat

a p

roce

ssin

g. A

raw

dat

a p

rod

uct

wil

l in

clu

de

elev

atio

ns

of

the

terr

ain

su

rfac

e as

wel

l as

of l

and

co

ver

stru

ctu

res

such

as

vege

tati

on

, bu

ild

ings

,

and

oth

er o

bje

cts.

$ro

ugh

fu

rth

er p

roce

ssin

g, a

t ad

dit

ion

al

cost

, th

e o

vera

ll t

erra

in s

urf

ace

can

be

extr

acte

d,

wh

ich

is

crit

ical

esp

ecia

lly

for

%o

od

ris

k m

app

ing.

Hig

h r

esol

uti

on s

atel

lite

dat

a m

ust

be

pu

rch

ased

fro

m t

he

sate

llit

e p

rovi

der

s at

mar

ket

pri

ces.

Pro

cess

ing

of

this

dat

a

by

exp

ert

per

son

nel

wil

l b

e b

ased

on

exi

stin

g p

ho

togr

am-

met

ric

so>

war

e fo

r ge

ner

atin

g o

rth

op

ho

tos

and

ele

vati

on

s.

Exi

stin

g D

EM

dat

a s

ho

uld

be

use

d w

ith

cau

tio

n i

f th

e co

n-

sist

ency

of t

he

dat

a h

as n

ot

bee

n p

rove

n. $

ere

are

a n

um

ber

of

rece

nt

exam

ple

s w

her

e n

ew e

leva

tio

n d

ata

of

som

e la

rge

Page 83: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

83

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4ar

eas

of

Eu

rop

e h

ave

bee

n a

cqu

ired

by

airb

orn

e li

dar

to

en

-

sure

im

pro

ved

%o

od

ris

k m

app

ing.

Sin

ce t

he

acq

uis

itio

n o

f la

rge

scal

e d

ata

as d

escr

ibed

ab

ove

is

exp

ensi

ve a

nd

th

e co

sts

may

be

bey

on

d r

egio

nal

cap

acit

y, a

l-

tern

ativ

ely

smal

ler

scal

e an

d l

ow

er a

ccu

racy

map

s/G

IS d

ata

may

be

an o

pti

on

. A

co

mp

aris

on

of

cost

s o

f m

ediu

m r

eso

-

luti

on

dat

a (1

0 m

or

larg

er)

and

hig

h r

eso

luti

on

dat

a (l

ess

than

2 m

) ar

e gi

ven

bel

ow

(se

ctio

n 4

.6.2

). M

ediu

m a

nd

lo

w

reso

luti

on

dat

a ca

nn

ot

pro

vid

e in

form

atio

n w

ith

th

e sa

me

accu

racy

or

reso

luti

on

as

wo

uld

be

avai

lab

le f

rom

lar

ger

scal

es,

bu

t it

may

be

a m

ore

a&

ord

able

op

tio

n a

nd

sti

ll b

e

of

ben

e't

for

%o

od

ris

k m

app

ing

and

urb

an c

lass

i'ca

tio

n

for

eart

hq

uak

e ri

sk a

nal

ysis

. Im

ages

wo

uld

be

avai

lab

le f

rom

med

ium

res

olu

tio

n r

emo

te s

ensi

ng

sate

llit

es i

ncl

ud

ing

op

ti-

cal

and

syn

thet

ic a

per

ture

rad

ar (

SAR

) sy

stem

s, a

nd

co

uld

also

be

pro

du

ced

mo

re r

apid

ly, s

ince

th

e d

ata

wo

uld

be

less

exp

ensi

ve t

o p

urc

has

e an

d w

ou

ld r

equ

ire

less

pro

cess

ing.

$e

ou

tpu

t co

uld

sti

ll i

ncl

ud

e p

hys

ical

ear

thq

uak

e vu

lner

-

abil

ity

of

urb

an a

reas

bas

ed o

n d

ensi

ty, q

ual

ity

and

po

ssib

ly

age

of

bu

ild

ings

.

$e

spat

ial

reso

luti

on

s o

f th

e d

ata

req

uir

ed f

or

're

ris

k a

s-

sess

men

t ar

e re

lati

vely

lo

w a

nd

hen

ce l

ow

sp

atia

l re

solu

tio

n

sate

llit

e im

ages

can

be

emp

loye

d.

Fo

r ex

amp

le,

the

mu

lti-

chan

nel

lo

w r

eso

luti

on

sen

sor

MO

DIS

has

sig

ni'

can

t ad

-

van

tage

s si

nce

th

e d

ata

is f

ree

and

it p

rovi

des

a u

niq

ue

cap

a-

bil

ity

in t

erm

s o

f '

re m

on

ito

rin

g. N

ever

thel

ess,

pro

cess

ing

of

the

dat

a m

ust

be

un

der

tak

en b

y h

igh

ly q

ual

i'ed

per

son

-

nel

.

Bec

ause

o

f th

e n

atu

re

of

dro

ugh

t as

a

slo

w-o

nse

t h

az-

ard

wit

h h

igh

sp

atia

l ex

ten

sio

n,

the

Tec

hn

ical

Pro

'le

fo

r

Dro

ugh

t V

uln

erab

ilit

y M

ap is

bas

ed o

n lo

w r

eso

luti

on

map

s

wit

h t

imin

g a

fun

ctio

n o

f th

e d

rou

ght

con

dit

ion

s. $

is d

ata

sho

uld

be

avai

lab

le f

rom

lo

w c

ost

or

free

med

ium

to

lo

w

spat

ial

reso

luti

on

sat

elli

te i

mag

es w

hic

h a

re u

nli

kel

y to

be

a&ec

ted

by

clo

ud

s. $

e p

roce

ssin

g o

f th

e d

ata

wo

uld

nee

d t

o

be

un

der

tak

en b

y tr

ain

ed p

erso

nn

el.

$e

asse

ssm

ent

of

dro

ugh

t im

pac

ts c

an b

e b

ased

on

a n

um

-

ber

of

ind

icat

ors

, su

ch a

s th

ose

dev

elo

ped

wit

hin

th

e U

ND

P

Dis

aste

r R

isk

In

dex

(D

RI)

fra

mew

ork

pro

vid

ing

stat

isti

cal

evid

ence

of

lin

ks

at t

he

glo

bal

sca

le b

etw

een

vu

lner

abil

ity

to n

atu

ral

haz

ard

s an

d l

evel

s o

f d

evel

op

men

t. $

e ab

sen

ce

of

geo

spat

ial

refe

ren

ce d

ata

at l

oca

l sc

ales

has

rep

ort

edly

lim

ited

th

e ad

op

tio

n o

f o

ther

in

dic

ato

rs.

$er

e ar

e cl

earl

y

op

po

rtu

nit

ies

for

geo

info

rmat

ion

te

chn

olo

gies

to

p

lay

a

mo

re s

ign

i'ca

nt

role

in

dro

ugh

t vu

lner

abil

ity

map

pin

g an

d

asse

ssm

ent

in t

he

futu

re b

y li

nk

ing

geo

info

rmat

ion

wit

h

soci

o-e

con

om

ic d

ata

des

crib

ing

dro

ugh

t vu

lner

abil

ity

and

dro

ugh

t im

pac

ts.

$e

gen

erat

ion

of

Lan

dsl

ide

Haz

ard

Map

s is

des

crib

ed i

n

det

ail

in c

hap

ter

4.5,

wit

h c

om

pre

hen

sive

tab

les

incl

ud

ing

a

ran

ge o

f d

ata

sou

rces

, su

ch a

s ai

rbo

rne,

sat

elli

te, '

eld

, lab

o-

rato

ry a

nd

rea

l-ti

me

dat

a fo

r m

od

elli

ng

lan

dsl

ide

init

iati

on

and

ru

n-o

ut.

Sat

elli

te-b

ased

dat

a so

urc

es w

ou

ld i

ncl

ud

e im

-

ager

y fr

om

med

ium

res

olu

tio

n s

atel

lite

s su

ch a

s L

and

sat

8,

SPO

T4

or

SPO

T5,

DM

SII

con

stel

lati

on

, or

Rap

idE

ye a

s w

ell

as S

AR

. Rel

ativ

e co

st '

gure

s fo

r th

ese

syst

ems

are

give

n b

e-

low

in

sec

tio

n 4

.6.2

.

Hazard

and r

isk m

onitoring

Tw

o t

ypes

of

mo

nit

ori

ng

syst

ems

are

dis

cuss

ed:

the

Flo

od

Ris

k M

on

ito

rin

g Sy

stem

wit

h m

ap s

cale

s o

f

1:25

,000

to

1:3

,000

,000

, ge

om

etri

c ac

cura

cy o

f 5

m t

o

500

m a

nd

sp

atia

l res

olu

tio

n 1

0 m

to

100

0 m

acc

ord

ing

to t

he

them

atic

cla

ss;

the

Fir

e D

etec

tio

n a

nd

Mo

nit

ori

ng

Syst

em,

pro

vid

ing

map

pin

g p

rod

uct

s w

ith

1:5

0,00

0 sc

ale

and

250

m s

pa-

tial

res

olu

tio

n, w

ith

dai

ly u

pd

ate

freq

uen

cy a

nd

tim

eli-

nes

s o

f 1

day

du

rin

g a

're

eve

nt.

$e

Flo

od

Ris

k M

on

ito

rin

g Sy

stem

req

uir

es le

ss d

etai

led

in-

form

atio

n t

han

th

e F

ire

Ris

k M

ap a

nd

co

uld

be

der

ived

fo

r

exte

nsi

ve %

oo

d h

azar

d a

reas

usi

ng

the

%o

od

ris

k m

aps

as a

bas

e w

ith

up

dat

es p

rovi

ded

by

sate

llit

e im

ages

. H

ow

ever

, if

the

haz

ard

are

a is

sm

all,

the

up

dat

ed i

nfo

rmat

ion

sh

ou

ld b

e

pro

vid

ed b

y m

ann

ed o

r U

AV

ph

oto

grap

hy.

Maj

or

adva

nce

s

are

bei

ng

mad

e in

a w

ide

vari

ety

of

app

lica

tio

ns

of

UA

Vs

for

loca

lise

d a

eria

l p

ho

togr

aph

y an

d t

hei

r ap

pli

cati

on

s w

ill

incr

ease

in

th

e fu

ture

.

Sate

llit

e re

mo

te s

ensi

ng

is c

lear

ly i

mp

ort

ant

for

're

det

ec-

tio

n a

nd

mo

nit

ori

ng,

bas

ed o

n a

ran

ge o

f o

pti

cal

and

SA

R

sen

sors

. $

e M

OD

IS s

atel

lite

is a

n im

po

rtan

t so

urc

e o

f d

ata

for

're

det

ecti

on

an

d m

on

ito

rin

g as

des

crib

ed i

n C

hap

ter

4.4,

bu

t th

e re

pea

t cy

cle

of

1 to

2 d

ays

lim

its

its

abil

ity

to

mo

nit

or

rap

idly

mo

vin

g '

res,

ind

icat

ing

the

nee

d fo

r a

ded

i-

cate

d s

mal

l sat

elli

te c

on

stel

lati

on

fo

r '

re m

on

ito

rin

g.

Dam

age a

ssessm

ent

mapp

ing

$re

e ty

pes

of

map

pin

g p

rod

uct

s ar

e d

iscu

ssed

, tw

o r

efer

-

rin

g to

%o

od

s an

d t

he

thir

d r

efer

rin

g to

ear

thq

uak

e d

amag

e.

Flo

od

In

un

dat

ion

Map

s w

ith

a s

cale

ran

ge o

f 1:

1,00

0

to 1

:1,0

00,0

00 a

nd

sp

atia

l re

solu

tio

n f

rom

0.5

m t

o 2

50

m, g

iven

a t

imel

ines

s o

f fe

w h

ou

rs a

>er

an

em

erge

ncy

;

Flo

od

Dam

age

Ass

essm

ent

Map

s w

ith

a s

cale

ran

ge

of

1:1,

000

to 1

:60,

000

and

30

m s

pat

ial

reso

luti

on

, re

-

qu

ired

1 t

o 2

day

s a>

er t

he

emer

gen

cy;

Ear

thq

uak

e D

amag

e A

sses

smen

t M

aps

scal

ed 1

:500

to

1:10

,000

wit

h 0

.2 m

- 2

m g

eom

etri

c ac

cura

cy, p

rovi

ded

a fe

w h

ou

rs a

>er

th

e d

isas

ter.

$e

Tec

hn

ical

Pro

'le

s o

f F

loo

d I

nu

nd

atio

n M

aps

and

Flo

od

Dam

age

Map

s va

ry s

ign

i'ca

ntl

y in

sca

le,

wh

ile

the

dat

a

req

uir

ed

for

eart

hq

uak

e d

amag

e as

sess

men

t an

d

resc

ue

are

very

lar

ge s

cale

. H

ow

ever

, th

e b

ase

dat

a fo

r th

ese

map

s

sho

uld

alr

ead

y b

e av

aila

ble

fro

m e

xist

ing

%o

od

ris

k m

aps

and

ear

thq

uak

e ri

sk m

aps

wit

h, i

n m

ost

cas

es, s

imil

ar s

cale

s.

Det

ails

o

f in

un

dat

ion

an

d

%o

od

d

amag

e,

or

eart

hq

uak

e

Page 84: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

84

TE

CH

NIC

AL A

SP

EC

TS,

BE

NE

FIT

AP

PR

AIS

AL A

ND C

OS

TS

4 dam

age

mu

st b

e ad

ded

to

th

e b

ase

dat

a a>

er t

he

even

t.

If

mu

ch s

mal

ler

scal

es w

ere

to b

e u

sed

, n

ew i

mag

es w

ou

ld

hav

e to

be

acq

uir

ed f

rom

sat

elli

tes

or

UA

Vs.

Sin

ce d

etai

ls

are

req

uir

ed w

ith

in a

few

ho

urs

, air

cra>

or

UA

V b

orn

e p

ho

-

togr

aph

y co

uld

be

pro

vid

ed,

un

der

th

e cl

ou

ds

if n

eces

sary

,

give

n t

hat

th

e n

eces

sary

aer

ial

ph

oto

grap

hy

equ

ipm

ent

is

avai

lab

le n

ear

the

loca

tio

n o

f th

e d

isas

ter,

an

d w

ind

fo

rces

are

wit

hin

rea

son

able

lim

its.

Fo

r th

e lo

w r

eso

luti

on

in

un

dat

ion

map

s, h

igh

alt

itu

de

air-

cra>

%ig

hts

or

op

tica

l sat

elli

te d

ata

such

as

the

free

of

char

ge

Lan

dsa

t 8

dat

a m

ay b

e al

so a

pp

rop

riat

e if

clo

ud

fre

e, b

ut

the

16 d

ay r

epea

t cy

cle

of

Lan

dsa

t 8

may

lim

it i

ts s

uit

abil

ity

for

dam

age

asse

ssm

ent.

Oth

er o

pti

cal

or

SAR

co

nst

ella

tio

ns

re-

ferr

ed t

o a

bo

ve m

ayb

e m

ore

ap

pro

pri

ate

and

acq

uir

ed u

n-

der

th

e In

tern

atio

nal

Ch

arte

r Sp

ace

and

Maj

or

Dis

aste

rs.

Vo

lun

tary

in

pu

t b

y N

GO

s an

d a

id f

orc

es c

ou

ld s

ign

i'ca

ntl

y

red

uce

co

sts

of

the

acq

uis

itio

n a

nd

pro

cess

ing

of

the

map

pro

du

cts.

O>

en %

oo

ds

and

esp

ecia

lly

eart

hq

uak

es o

ccu

r in

rem

ote

area

s an

d h

ence

arr

angi

ng

for

aeri

al p

ho

togr

aph

y m

ay t

ake

tim

e. $

eref

ore

, sa

tell

ite

bas

ed o

pti

cal

imag

es (

give

n c

lou

d

free

co

nd

itio

ns)

or

SAR

im

ager

y co

uld

be

acq

uir

ed f

ree

of

char

ge u

nd

er t

he

Inte

rnat

ion

al C

har

ter

Spac

e an

d M

ajo

r D

i-

sast

ers

as a

rap

id a

lter

nat

ive

to a

eria

l d

ata

acq

uis

itio

n. T

im-

ing

of

dat

a ac

qu

isit

ion

s o

ver

the

dis

aste

r si

te w

ou

ld d

epen

d

on

wh

en t

he

sate

llit

e p

asse

s o

ver

the

site

, bu

t d

aily

co

vera

ge

is u

sual

ly p

oss

ible

. $

e 24

ho

ur

op

erat

ion

of

SAR

sat

elli

tes

may

en

able

qu

ick

er a

cqu

isit

ion

of

imag

es o

ver

the

a&ec

ted

area

at

nig

ht.

$er

e is

lik

ely

to b

e a

tim

e la

g in

su

pp

lyin

g th

e

pro

du

ct t

o u

sers

ass

essi

ng

inu

nd

atio

n o

r ea

rth

qu

ake

dam

-

age,

an

d p

roce

du

res

such

as

do

wn

load

ing

map

dat

a o

ver

the

inte

rnet

dir

ectl

y to

th

e si

te o

f th

e d

amag

e n

eed

to

be

furt

her

dev

elo

ped

an

d i

mp

lem

ente

d.

$e

pro

cess

ing

of

the

imag

es t

o e

xtra

ct o

rth

op

ho

to d

amag

e m

aps

wo

uld

be

larg

ely

auto

mat

ic, b

ut

the

extr

acti

on

of

actu

al d

amag

e to

bu

ild

ings

wo

uld

req

uir

e fu

rth

er i

nte

rpre

tati

on

by

use

rs.

$er

e ar

e th

ree

maj

or

chal

len

ges

to f

ace

if m

ore

sp

eci'

c co

st

esti

mat

ion

s ar

e ex

pec

ted

for

the

10 r

efer

ence

pro

du

cts

as d

e-

scri

bed

by

the

Tec

hn

ical

Pro

'le

s, n

amel

y:

the

di&

eren

t co

st c

ateg

ori

es t

hat

are

rel

evan

t fo

r p

rod

-

uct

s o

r sy

stem

s, e

.g.

rega

rdin

g th

e am

ou

nt

of

‘in

pu

t’

that

is r

ead

ily

avai

lab

le a

t m

inim

al c

ost

in t

erm

s o

f su

it-

able

dat

a an

d m

atu

re s

o>

- an

d h

ard

war

e,

vari

atio

ns

in c

ost

s ch

arge

d b

y d

i&er

ent

pro

vid

ers,

an

d

vari

atio

n i

n c

ost

s d

ue

to w

her

e an

d w

hen

an

d u

nd

er

wh

ich

pro

gram

mat

ic c

on

dit

ion

s a

give

n s

yste

m i

s d

e-

velo

ped

, im

ple

men

ted

an

d o

per

ated

.

Tw

o e

xtre

mel

y d

i&er

ent

exam

ple

s m

ay s

erve

to

ill

ust

rate

this

pro

ble

m:

An

In

un

dat

ion

Map

is

a st

and

ard

pro

du

ct,

wh

ich

can

be

der

ived

fro

m a

vail

able

mu

lti-

pu

rpo

se s

atel

lite

im

ag-

ery

and

pro

vid

ed a

t re

lati

vely

low

co

st o

r co

st f

ree

e.g.

in

the

fram

ewo

rk o

f th

e In

tern

atio

nal

Ch

arte

r Sp

ace

and

Maj

or

Dis

aste

rs.

In c

on

tras

t, a

Fir

e D

etec

tio

n a

nd

Mo

nit

ori

ng

Syst

em

ful'

llin

g th

e st

and

ard

s o

f th

e re

spec

tive

tec

hn

ical

pro

-

'le

wo

uld

par

tial

ly r

equ

ire

the

dat

a q

ual

ity

that

was

dem

on

stra

ted

by

the

Ger

man

BIR

D m

issi

on

, i.

e. t

he

imp

lem

enta

tio

n o

f a

full

y %

edge

d o

per

atio

nal

fo

llo

w-

on

sat

elli

te m

issi

on

.

So

me

exem

pla

ry r

elat

ive

cost

'gu

res

for

imag

ery

fro

m s

at-

elli

tes

wit

h d

i&er

ent

spat

ial

reso

luti

on

are

lis

ted

in

Tab

le

4.6.

1, d

eriv

ed f

rom

th

e re

spec

tive

sat

elli

te p

rovi

der

s’ w

eb

site

s, t

o p

rovi

de

a q

uic

k o

verv

iew

on

th

e co

st r

ange

. Co

sts

of

sate

llit

e-b

ased

Dig

ital

Ele

vati

on

Mo

del

s ar

e in

th

e ra

nge

of

$US

9 (S

PO

T)

to 3

0 (T

erra

SAR

-X)

per

km

2 . T

akin

g T

urk

ey

as a

n e

xam

ple

, th

e es

tim

ated

co

sts

of

pro

vid

ing

map

s fr

om

hig

h r

eso

luti

on

sat

elli

te i

mag

es w

ith

1 m

sp

atia

l re

solu

tio

n

in 2

013

wo

uld

be

of

the

ord

er o

f $U

S 20

0 p

er k

m2 ;

the

cost

of

der

ivin

g m

aps

fro

m h

igh

res

olu

tio

n a

eria

l p

ho

togr

aph

y

wo

uld

be

a fa

cto

r o

f 50

to

100

mo

re e

xpen

sive

. $

e ty

pic

al

cost

s o

f m

app

ing

fro

m U

AV

ph

oto

grap

hy

are

no

t ye

t re

adil

y

avai

lab

le.

In a

dd

itio

n, i

t sh

ou

ld b

e p

oin

ted

ou

t th

at m

any

dat

a se

ts a

re

avai

lab

le f

ree

of

char

ge a

nd

can

be

do

wn

load

ed f

rom

th

e

web

. Oth

ers

are

avai

lab

le a

s fr

ee w

eb-s

ervi

ces.

A r

epo

sito

ry

of

free

geo

spat

ial

dat

a an

d p

rod

uct

s h

as b

een

co

mp

iled

by

UN

-SP

IDE

R o

n h

ttp

://w

ww

.un

-sp

ider

.org

/pag

e/66

65/f

ree-

dat

a-so

urc

es.

Fu

rth

erm

ore

, th

e 10

ref

eren

ce p

rod

uct

s re

late

to

ver

y d

i&er

-

ent

dis

aste

r ty

pes

an

d d

i&er

ent

ph

ases

of

dis

aste

r m

anag

e-

men

t. $

e co

st-b

ene'

ts-r

elat

ion

of

pro

du

cts

rela

ted

mo

re

spec

i'ca

lly

to t

he

emer

gen

cy p

rep

ared

nes

s an

d r

esp

on

se

ph

ases

can

be

mo

re e

asil

y m

od

elle

d (

e.g.

by

the

Co

st A

void

-

ance

Ap

pro

ach

dem

on

stra

ted

in C

hap

ter

2), b

ecau

se t

her

e is

ple

nty

of

emp

iric

al d

ata

on

th

e ac

tual

lo

sses

cau

sed

by

vari

-

ou

s d

isas

ter

typ

es i

n d

i&er

ent

par

ts o

f th

e w

orl

d.

Syst

emR

esol

uti

onC

ost

s ($

US

/km

2)

Lan

dsa

t 8

30 m

free

DM

CII

22 m

0.36

(f

or

3 d

ata

tak

es

to

avo

id c

lou

d c

ove

r)

SPO

T 4

an

d 5

10 m

0.65

2.6

(30‘

x 3

0‘ (

54 k

m x

54

km

) co

lou

red

ort

ho

imag

e)

Rap

idE

ye6.

5 m

1.28

Ter

raSA

R-X

up

to

18

m2.

3

2 m

8.8

Tab

le

4.6.

1:

Exe

mp

lary

co

st

'gu

res

for

rem

ote

se

nsi

ng

imag

ery

(201

3 p

rice

s b

ased

, ap

pro

xim

ated

), d

eriv

ed f

rom

the

resp

ecti

ve s

atel

lite

pro

vid

ers’

web

sit

es

Page 85: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

85

RE

SU

LT

S S

UM

MA

RY A

ND D

ISC

US

SIO

N

5O

ther

pro

du

cts

such

as

dam

age

asse

ssm

ent

map

s co

ntr

ib-

ute

to

rec

ove

ry a

nd

rec

on

stru

ctio

n b

ecau

se t

hey

hel

p t

o e

s-

tim

ate

the

dam

ages

an

d n

eed

s o

r to

mo

nit

or

the

'n

anci

al

per

form

ance

of

reco

very

act

ivit

ies,

in

bo

th w

ays

op

tim

isin

g

the

e#ci

ency

of

reco

very

sp

end

ing.

Geo

spat

ial

info

rmat

ion

on

ris

k a

nd

vu

lner

abil

ity,

on

th

e

oth

er

han

d,

wil

l su

pp

ort

e&

ecti

ve

po

lici

es

of

mit

igat

ion

and

ris

k r

edu

ctio

n.

Wh

erea

s th

ese

pre

ven

tive

ap

pro

ach

es

as s

uch

are

gen

eral

ly a

ckn

ow

led

ged

as

the

op

tio

n o

f ch

oic

e

to o

bta

in h

igh

er e

#ci

ency

in

dis

aste

r m

anag

emen

t (s

ee

Ch

apte

r 2)

, th

e sp

eci'

c im

pac

t o

f ge

oin

form

atio

n i

s m

ore

di#

cult

to

qu

anti

fy.

At

pre

sen

t, a

ny

rese

arch

on

th

is p

oin

t

has

to

in

volv

e th

e ex

pli

cit

and

tac

it k

no

wle

dge

of

stak

eho

ld-

ers,

pra

ctit

ion

ers

and

exp

erts

. T

o o

verc

om

e th

e li

mit

atio

ns

of

qu

esti

on

nai

re a

nd

ap

pra

isal

bas

ed a

pp

roac

hes

reg

ard

ing

this

iss

ue,

it

seem

s w

ort

hw

hil

e to

exp

lore

th

e p

ote

nti

al o

f

mo

re e

lab

ora

te m

eth

od

s fo

r ca

ptu

rin

g th

e in

dis

pen

sab

le

kn

ow

led

ge o

f st

akeh

old

ers

and

en

d-u

sers

, fo

r ex

amp

le b

y

dev

elo

pin

g an

d p

erfo

rmin

g ex

erci

ses

bas

ed o

n d

edic

ated

di-

sast

er m

anag

emen

t ga

mes

so

>w

are

(‘se

rio

us

gam

ing’

).

5. R

esu

lts s

um

mary

an

d d

iscu

ssio

n

Rob

ert

Bac

khau

s an

d J

ohn

Tri

nd

er

Ad

dre

ssin

g th

e is

sue

of

eval

uat

ing

con

trib

uti

on

s ge

oin

for-

mat

ion

can

mak

e in

su

pp

ort

of

Dis

aste

r an

d R

isk

Man

age-

men

t (D

RM

) re

qu

ires

exp

lori

ng

a w

ide

inte

rdis

cip

lin

ary

'el

d, m

ain

ly u

nd

er t

wo

hea

din

gs:

the

econ

omic

asp

ects

, wh

ich

cal

l fo

r as

sess

ing

the

mo

ne-

tary

val

ue

of

ben

e'ts

lik

ely

to b

e ga

ined

fro

m a

pp

lyin

g

geo

info

rmat

ion

to

DR

M, a

nd

the

pra

ctic

al i

mp

acts

of

such

an

ap

pli

cati

on

, i.

e. a

sses

-

sin

g th

e qu

alit

ativ

e be

ne+

ts c

on

sid

erin

g sp

eci'

c o

per

a-

tio

nal

an

d s

trat

egic

asp

ects

of

DR

M.

Wit

h r

egar

d t

o t

he

them

atic

an

d s

tru

ctu

ral

exte

nt

of

this

'el

d o

f st

ud

y, b

oth

asp

ects

had

to

be

anal

ysed

by

pra

gma-

tic

app

roac

hes

, all

ow

ing

for

su#

cien

t co

mp

lexi

ty r

edu

ctio

n

and

fo

cuss

ing.

Giv

en t

he

lack

of

vali

dat

ed c

om

pu

ter-

bas

ed

mo

del

s, s

tak

eho

lder

an

d e

xper

t su

rvey

s w

ere

the

met

ho

d o

f

cho

ice.

$e

econ

omic

asp

ects

wer

e st

ud

ied

by

a co

mp

reh

ensi

ve

anal

ysis

of

app

lica

ble

met

ho

dic

al a

pp

roac

hes

, fo

llo

wed

by

a ca

se s

tud

y to

ill

ust

rate

th

e p

ote

nti

al o

f th

e C

ost

Avo

idan

ce A

pp

roac

h (

Ch

apte

r 2)

.

$e

asse

ssm

ent

of

spec

i+c

oper

atio

nal

an

d s

trat

egic

be-

ne+

ts w

as b

ased

on

tec

hn

ical

des

crip

tio

ns

of

10 s

ho

rt-

list

ed g

eoin

form

atio

n p

rod

uct

s an

d s

yste

ms

(Tec

hn

ical

Pro

'le

s),

and

in

clu

ded

th

e as

sess

men

t o

f cr

itic

al t

ech

-

nic

al f

eatu

res

(Ch

apte

rs 3

, 4)

. $

e re

sult

s o

f a

glo

bal

stak

eho

lder

su

rvey

wer

e co

mp

lem

ente

d b

y o

utl

inin

g

the

scie

nti

'c

and

tec

hn

ical

bac

kgr

ou

nd

of

the

geo

in-

form

atio

n p

rod

uct

s an

d s

yste

ms

(Ch

apte

rs 4

.1 t

o 4

.5,

resp

ecti

vely

), a

nd

by

dis

cuss

ing

cost

s as

pec

ts o

f ge

od

ata

pro

visi

on

(C

hap

ter

4.6)

.

Maj

or

resu

lts

of

the

stu

dy

are

sum

mar

ized

an

d d

iscu

ssed

in

the

foll

ow

ing.

Det

erm

inin

g th

e ec

onom

ic v

alu

e o

f ge

osp

atia

l in

form

atio

n

in D

RM

rem

ain

s an

un

der

stu

die

d t

op

ic w

ith

in t

he

thri

vin

g

'el

d o

f st

ud

y d

edic

ated

to

th

e ec

on

om

ics

of

nat

ura

l h

azar

ds

and

dis

aste

r m

anag

emen

t. C

hap

ter

2 p

rovi

des

a r

evie

w o

f

met

ho

dic

al a

pp

roac

hes

. $

e N

amib

ia %

oo

din

g d

isas

ter

of

2009

was

sel

ecte

d t

o i

llu

stra

te t

he

app

lica

tio

n o

f th

e C

ost

Avo

idan

ce A

pp

roac

h f

or

a ca

se s

tud

y. $

e %

oo

ds

had

a m

a-

jor

imp

act

on

Nam

ibia

’s e

con

om

y, r

edu

cin

g th

e G

DP

fro

m

an e

xpec

ted

1.1

% to

0.5

%. $

e to

tal d

amag

es a

nd

loss

es, w

i-

tho

ut

con

sid

erin

g th

e im

pac

ts o

f lo

ss o

f li

fe, w

ere

esti

mat

ed

to b

e $U

S 21

4.6

mil

lio

n (

in 2

009

valu

e o

f $U

S).

A q

ues

tio

nn

aire

was

des

ign

ed t

o c

har

t th

e ec

on

om

ic v

alu

e

of

sin

gle

geo

spat

ial

info

rmat

ion

pro

du

cts,

an

d a

su

rvey

was

carr

ied

ou

t w

ith

Nam

ibia

n s

tak

eho

lder

s to

est

imat

e th

e co

st

savi

ngs

th

at c

ou

ld h

ave

bee

n r

eali

zed

giv

en t

he

avai

lab

ilit

y

of

a F

loo

d E

arly

War

nin

g Sy

stem

. $

e re

spo

nse

to

th

e su

r-

vey

was

lo

w a

nd

did

no

t al

low

fo

r st

atis

tica

l an

alys

is.

Ho

w-

ever

, th

e re

sult

s sh

ow

ed t

hat

th

e re

spo

nd

ents

est

imat

ed t

hat

savi

ngs

co

uld

hav

e b

een

of

the

ord

er o

f 45

% o

f th

e to

tal

dam

ages

an

d l

oss

es,

wit

h s

ign

i'ca

nt

vari

atio

n i

n t

he

area

s

Infr

ast

ruct

ure

, P

rod

uct

ivit

y, S

ocia

l an

d C

ross

Sec

tora

l. $

is

'gu

re i

s in

agr

eem

ent

wit

h d

ata

pu

bli

shed

in

th

e li

tera

ture

on

dam

age

red

uct

ion

fro

m e

arly

%o

od

war

nin

g, r

angi

ng

bet

wee

n 3

5 an

d 4

7 %

. $

eref

ore

a p

ote

nti

al r

edu

ctio

n o

f

dam

age

and

lo

sses

in

th

e N

amib

ia %

oo

ds

of

abo

ut

40 %

, if

a F

loo

d E

arly

War

nin

g Sy

stem

had

bee

n a

vail

able

, ca

n b

e

assu

med

to

be

real

isti

c, d

esp

ite

the

low

res

po

nse

rat

e to

th

e

surv

ey.

$e

qu

esti

on

nai

re i

s p

ub

lish

ed i

n t

he

An

nex

an

d m

ay s

erve

as a

tem

pla

te f

or

mo

di'

cati

on

an

d a

pp

lica

tio

n t

o o

ther

cas

es

and

geo

info

rmat

ion

pro

du

cts.

Page 86: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

86

RE

SU

LT

S S

UM

MA

RY A

ND D

ISC

US

SIO

N

5 A g

lob

al s

urv

ey w

as c

arri

ed o

ut

by

way

of

two

co

nse

cuti

ve

web

-bas

ed p

oll

s.

$e

'rs

t p

oll

res

ult

ed i

n a

sh

ort

list

of

10 g

eoin

form

atio

n

pro

du

cts

or

syst

ems

con

sid

ered

m

ost

im

po

rtan

t b

y th

e

glo

bal

sta

keh

old

er c

om

mu

nit

y, r

epre

sen

ted

by

222

resp

on

d-

ers.

$er

e w

ere

no

sig

ni'

can

t d

i&er

ence

s b

etw

een

res

po

nse

s

fro

m u

sers

, val

ue-

add

ers

or

pro

vid

ers

of

geo

info

rmat

ion

fo

r

Dis

aste

r an

d R

isk

Man

agem

ent.

$e

stak

eho

lder

co

mm

u-

nit

y as

crib

ed h

igh

est

imp

ort

ance

to

geo

info

rmat

ion

ab

ou

t

Flo

od, E

arth

quak

e, D

rou

ght,

Fir

e, a

nd

Lan

dsl

ide

haz

ard

s.

$e

sho

rtli

st it

ems

wer

e d

etai

led

by

way

of

com

pac

t T

ech

ni-

cal

Pro

'le

s an

d a

pp

rais

ed f

or

spec

i'c

ben

e'ts

in

th

e co

urs

e

of

the

seco

nd

po

ll, w

hic

h w

as a

dd

ress

ed m

ain

ly b

ut

no

t ex

-

clu

sive

ly t

o e

nd

-use

rs.

Eac

h o

f th

e h

azar

ds

add

ress

ed h

as i

ts o

wn

ch

arac

teri

stic

s

and

so

hav

e th

e re

spec

tive

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re i

gni-

Page 87: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

87

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info

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ail

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ce o

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e im

po

rtan

ce

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d v

uln

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app

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nit

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ast

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to a

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sted

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info

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pro

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ng

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es i

n p

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lic

eco

no

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and

su

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ing

pre

-

ven

tive

str

ateg

ies.

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d-u

sers

asc

rib

e a

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h b

ene'

t o

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info

rmat

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-

vid

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ts a

s w

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s fo

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pp

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ven

tive

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om

par

iso

n,

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n-e

nd

-use

rs g

ener

ally

ten

d t

o u

nd

e-

rest

imat

e th

e b

ene'

t p

ote

nti

al.

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d-u

sers

an

d n

on

-en

d-u

sers

mo

stly

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er i

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r as

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s.

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m t

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met

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wh

en it

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mes

to

eval

uat

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geo

info

rmat

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fo

r D

isas

ter

and

Ris

k M

anag

e-

men

t. T

o o

verc

om

e th

e li

mit

atio

ns

of

qu

esti

on

nai

re-b

ased

surv

eys,

th

e p

ote

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al

of

ded

icat

ed

man

agem

ent

gam

es

cou

ld b

e fu

rth

er e

xplo

red

.

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88

Page 89: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

89

RE

FE

RE

NC

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66.

Refe

ren

ces

AC

IL T

asm

an, 2

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atia

l in

form

atio

n –

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imp

act

of

mo

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pat

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rmat

ion

tec

hn

olo

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on

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e

Au

stra

lian

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Man

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Bu

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Ass

essm

ent

usi

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Mu

lti-

tem

po

ral

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e IS

PR

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ngr

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igh

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olu

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Op

tica

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tell

ite

Imag

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for

Po

st-E

arth

qu

ake

Dam

age

As-

sess

men

t: $

e 20

03 B

ou

mer

des

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lger

ia)

and

Bam

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an)

Ear

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uak

es.

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earc

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gres

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d

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pli

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2003

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ult

idis

cip

lin

ary

Cen

ter

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ngi

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rin

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CE

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Page 103: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

103

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Page 104: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

104A

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EX 7

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ZK

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th

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qu

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of

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use

r,

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n t

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geo

dat

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wh

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p-

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s.

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e d

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cycl

e h

as d

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ent

dem

and

s o

n t

he

sate

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e in

form

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n p

rod

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s an

d Z

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kes

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t co

ntr

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ns

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du

rin

g th

e em

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n-

cy r

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f p

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ut

also

fo

r re

hab

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n a

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rec

ove

ry a

c-

tio

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war

nin

g an

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ter

pre

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tio

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n i

ts

fun

ctio

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cris

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app

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serv

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edia

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ten

t (e

.g.

%o

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ed a

rea)

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d e

stim

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(e. g

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in

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re, e

tc.)

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ord

er t

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sist

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n m

akin

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sit

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tres

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reli

ef

acti

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th

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eld

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urt

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ses

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ort

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tern

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tner

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atio

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pro

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es u

ser

spec

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refu

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cam

p a

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sit

uat

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map

s. $

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map

s ca

n b

e

a va

luab

le c

on

trib

uti

on

fo

r lo

gist

ic s

up

po

rt a

nd

op

erat

ion

pla

nn

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in t

he

resp

ecti

ve c

amp

s o

r ar

eas.

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th

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ame

of

thes

e ac

tivi

ties

, Z

KI

clo

sely

co

op

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es w

ith

in

tern

atio

nal

reli

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rgan

isat

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d s

ever

al U

N o

rgan

isat

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s.

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top

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hin

the

pro

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n

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n s

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rk,

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ori

ng

of

Fig

ure

s 1

and

2: D

LR

/ZK

I cr

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ro

om

, wh

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24/7

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ms

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con

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ork

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easi

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mb

er o

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man

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gen

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ns

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reat

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se i

n m

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term

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, re

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ates

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atio

nal

an

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on

-

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ato

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.

Page 105: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

105

AN

NE

X

7cr

itic

al i

nfr

astr

uct

ure

, or

illi

cit

extr

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of

nat

ura

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sou

r-

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Als

o t

he

mo

nit

ori

ng

of

inte

rnat

ion

al c

on

%ic

ts a

nd

cri

sis

regi

on

s is

an

ele

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t o

f th

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men

t o

f m

eth

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s an

d

con

cep

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or

cris

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reve

nti

on

in

ter

ms

of

civi

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uri

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rder

to

co

nti

nu

ou

sly

imp

rove

ser

vice

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d p

rod

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rel

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vi-

des

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cen

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mak

ers

in t

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fram

e o

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edic

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ject

s. Z

KI

pro

vid

es t

rain

ing

for

geo

spat

ial

sup

po

rt i

n

dis

aste

r m

anag

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t. $

e ta

rget

au

die

nce

are

per

son

nel

of

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ion

al a

nd

in

tern

atio

nal

rel

ief

org

anis

atio

ns

as w

ell

as

gove

rnm

enta

l ag

enci

es i

nte

rest

ed i

n d

isas

ter

man

agem

ent

and

em

erge

ncy

res

po

nse

to

nat

ura

l h

azar

ds

and

hu

man

ita-

rian

dis

aste

rs. $

e sh

ort

ter

m t

ech

nic

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rain

ing

cou

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ore

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o t

he

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nt’s

nee

ds

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y fr

om

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tici

pan

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ith

sat

elli

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mag

e in

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eth

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rap

id m

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niq

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erge

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po

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r p

ro-

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mai

n g

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nab

le a

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str

engt

hen

th

e

com

pet

ence

an

d e

xper

tise

of

dec

isio

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aker

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rdin

ato

rs

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erge

ncy

rel

ief

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rker

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mak

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Page 106: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

106A

NN

EX 7

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igat

ion

s w

ith

th

e d

esig

n a

nd

dev

elo

pm

ent

of

har

dw

are

and

dat

a p

roce

ssin

g te

chn

iqu

es,

req

uir

ing

them

to b

e fa

mil

iar

wit

h g

eosc

ien

ces

such

as

geo

ph

ysic

s, g

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gy,

hyd

rolo

gy

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eoro

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cien

tist

s b

rin

g an

alyt

ical

sk

ills

and

bac

kgr

ou

nd

exp

erti

se t

hat

hel

p d

eter

min

e th

e u

se o

f

rem

ote

sen

sin

g i

n s

olv

ing

par

ticu

lar

hu

man

an

d e

nvi

ron

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men

tal p

rob

lem

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rovi

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g in

form

atio

n f

or

reso

urc

e

man

agem

ent.

$is

fu

sio

n o

f sc

ien

ti'

c an

d e

ngi

nee

rin

g d

is-

cip

lin

es w

ith

in t

he

geo

ph

ysic

al a

nd

geo

spat

ial

wo

rld

s gi

ves

GR

SS a

un

iqu

e in

terd

isci

pli

nar

y ch

arac

ter

and

an

exc

itin

g

role

in

fu

rth

erin

g re

mo

te s

ensi

ng

scie

nce

an

d t

ech

no

log

y.

GR

SS W

AS

STA

RT

ED

IN

196

2 as

th

e G

eosc

ien

ce E

lect

ro-

nic

Gro

up

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hic

h w

as r

eorg

aniz

ed a

s th

e G

eosc

ien

ce a

nd

Rem

ote

Sen

sin

g S

oci

ety

in 1

980

to c

reat

e an

in

tern

atio

nal

soci

ety

for

the

rap

idly

exp

and

ing

'el

d o

f re

mo

te s

ensi

ng.

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has

alw

ays

bee

n a

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ciet

y w

ith

ou

t b

ord

ers,

an

d

tod

ay, w

ith

ove

r 35

00 i

nd

ivid

ual

mem

ber

s, i

s co

nti

nu

ing

this

ori

gin

al

visi

on

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on

trib

uti

ng

to t

he

adva

nce

men

t o

f th

e u

se a

nd

app

lica

tio

n o

f re

mo

te s

ensi

ng

for

soci

etal

ben

e'ts

.

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RSS

– t

he

Inte

rnat

ion

al G

eosc

ien

ce a

nd

Rem

ote

Sen

-

sin

g Sy

mp

osi

um

is

the

%ag

ship

co

nfe

ren

ce o

f th

e so

ciet

y

and

has

gro

wn

fro

m 4

30 p

arti

cip

ants

30

year

s ag

o t

o o

ver

2000

to

day

. $

is a

nn

ual

gat

her

ing

of

wo

rld

-cla

ss s

cien

tist

s,

engi

nee

rs,

and

ed

uca

tors

en

gage

d i

n t

he

'el

ds

of

geo

sci-

ence

s an

d r

emo

te s

ensi

ng

fro

m a

rou

nd

th

e w

orl

d f

eatu

res

pap

ers

and

po

ster

s o

n c

utt

ing

edge

res

earc

h i

n a

ll a

reas

of

rem

ote

sen

sin

g an

d e

nvi

ron

men

tal

app

lica

tio

ns

such

as

di-

sast

er m

on

ito

rin

g an

d m

anag

emen

t. G

RSS

als

o c

o-s

po

nso

rs

mo

re t

han

tw

enty

Sym

po

sia

wo

rld

wid

e o

n a

n a

nn

ual

or

bi-

ann

ual

bas

is.

GR

SS p

ub

lish

es f

ou

r jo

urn

als.

Tra

nsa

ctio

ns

on G

eosc

ien

ce a

nd

Rem

ote

Sen

sin

g (T

GR

S),

ou

r %

agsh

ip jo

urn

al, p

ub

lish

es a

dva

nce

s in

th

e d

evel

op

men

t

of

sen

sin

g in

stru

men

ts a

nd

tec

hn

iqu

es u

sed

fo

r th

e ac

qu

isi-

tio

n o

f ge

osc

ien

ti'

c in

form

atio

n.

Geo

scie

nce

an

d R

emot

e S

ensi

ng

Let

ters

(G

RSL

) is

a q

uar

-

terl

y p

ub

lica

tio

n f

or

sho

rt p

aper

s ad

dre

ssin

g n

ew i

dea

s an

d

form

ativ

e co

nce

pts

in

rem

ote

sen

sin

g as

wel

l as

new

res

ult

s.

Sel

ecte

d T

opic

s in

Ap

pli

ed E

art

h O

bse

rva

tion

s a

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ote

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sin

g (J

STA

RS

) ad

dre

sses

cu

rren

t is

sues

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d t

ech

niq

ues

in a

pp

lied

rem

ote

an

d i

n s

itu

sen

sin

g, t

hei

r in

tegr

atio

n, a

nd

app

lied

mo

del

ing

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in

form

atio

n c

reat

ion

fo

r u

nd

erst

an-

din

g th

e ea

rth

en

viro

nm

ents

Fig

ure

1:

Cyc

lon

e Y

asi

(2

Feb

ruar

y 20

11)

was

on

e o

f th

e

mo

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clo

nes

to

hav

e a&

ecte

d A

ust

rali

a’s

no

rth

sin

ce r

eco

rds

com

men

ced

(w

ww

.bo

m.g

ov.

au).

Page 107: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

107

AN

NE

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EE

Geo

scie

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e S

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lis-

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epen

den

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licy

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en t

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mm

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ncl

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rch

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-

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ob

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lved

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ote

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sin

g fo

r d

isas

ter

man

agem

ent

and

haz

ard

ris

k r

edu

ctio

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in

stru

men

ts

for

use

on

bo

th a

ircr

a> a

nd

sat

elli

te p

latf

orm

s h

ave

bee

n

dev

elo

ped

to

im

pro

ve t

he

det

ecti

on

, m

app

ing

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mo

ni-

tori

ng

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ura

l an

d h

um

an i

nd

uce

d h

azar

ds.

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cess

ing

tech

niq

ues

fo

r d

eriv

ing

nea

r re

al-t

ime

dat

a an

d in

form

atio

n

extr

acti

on

fo

r u

se i

n p

re-p

rep

ared

nes

s p

lan

nin

g an

d a

ctiv

e

even

t m

app

ing

hav

e b

een

dev

elo

ped

. A

reas

of

inte

rest

in

-

clu

de;

inte

grat

ed e

arth

ob

serv

atio

n s

yste

ms;

ear

thq

uak

e an

d

cru

stal

def

orm

atio

n d

etec

tio

n;

%o

od

map

pin

g; l

oca

l, re

gio

-

nal

an

d g

lob

al r

ain

fall

mea

sure

men

t an

d c

yclo

ne

pre

dic

tio

n;

dro

ugh

t an

d s

oil

mo

istu

re r

etri

eval

met

ho

ds,

an

d '

re d

etec

-

tio

n, m

app

ing

and

vu

lner

abil

ity

asse

ssm

ent.

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a S

oci

ety

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l G

RSS

is

wo

rkin

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ith

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tern

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age

n-

cies

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N-S

PID

ER

an

d G

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an

d w

ith

in

div

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al

cou

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rgan

izat

ion

s to

im

pro

ve a

cces

s to

rem

ote

ly s

ense

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info

rmat

ion

, p

rovi

de

tech

nic

al s

up

po

rt f

or

rap

id r

esp

on

se

map

pin

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roce

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g so

luti

on

s fo

r u

sin

g h

igh

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olu

tio

n

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e d

ata

to m

eet

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info

rmat

ion

req

uir

emen

ts f

or

com

-

mu

nit

y d

isas

ter

pre

par

atio

n a

nd

pla

nn

ing.

ww

w.g

rss-

ieee

.org

Fin

d u

s o

n F

aceb

oo

k a

nd

Lin

ked

In.

Fig

ure

2:

Gro

un

d d

isp

lace

men

t m

ap a

nd

lo

cati

on

of

a>er

sho

cks

foll

ow

ing

a m

agn

itu

de

8.0

eart

hq

uak

e in

Sic

hu

an,

Ch

ina,

der

ived

fro

m D

i&er

enti

al I

nSA

R (

DIn

SAR

) te

chn

iqu

es u

sin

g JA

XA

AL

OS

PAL

SAR

dat

a, J

anu

ary

2008

(w

ww

.gm

at.u

nsw

.

edu

.au

/Lin

lin

Ge/

Ear

thq

uak

e/).

Page 108: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

108A

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Page 109: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

109

AN

NE

X

7p

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org

Page 110: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

110A

NN

EX 7

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Page 111: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

111

AN

NE

X

7o

rder

to

all

ow

loca

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on

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Page 112: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

112A

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EX 7

A w

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ange

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rese

nta

tio

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tere

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at

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s th

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e In

tern

atio

nal

Car

togr

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ic A

s-

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atio

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ICA

). I

CA

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on

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e fo

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om

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ies,

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iver

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lved

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y an

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a#li

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eir

nu

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ers

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gro

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g.

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oci

atio

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rum

ents

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e m

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nes

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Co

nfe

ren

ces

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mm

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e p

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e d

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d w

ork

ed t

hro

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. IC

A r

un

s

28 c

om

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sio

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ran

gin

g fr

om

Gen

eral

isat

ion

Asp

ects

to

Map

Pro

ject

ion

s as

lis

ted

at

htt

p:/

/ica

ci.o

rg/c

om

mis

sio

ns/

.

Th

e r

ole

of

mo

dern

car

man

ag

em

en

t

Geo

rg G

artn

er a

nd

Mil

an K

onec

ny

To

day

map

s ca

n b

e cr

eate

d a

nd

use

d b

y an

y in

div

idu

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ith

on

ly m

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est

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ills

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rtu

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th a

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mo

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rpo

se.

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new

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ing

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adig

m u

sers

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o>

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rese

nt

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loca

tio

n o

f in

tere

st

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pro

du

ce m

aps

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ss n

eed

s th

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rise

in

stan

tan

e-

ou

sly.

Car

togr

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ic d

ata

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dig

ital

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eles

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de-

live

red

in '

nal

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rm t

o t

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dev

ice

in t

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ds

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use

r o

r

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she

may

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wn

load

req

ues

ted

vis

ual

izat

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a in

sit

u.

Rap

id a

dva

nce

s in

tec

hn

olo

gies

hav

e en

able

d t

his

rev

olu

tio

n

in m

ap m

akin

g to

be

ach

ieve

d b

y an

yon

e. O

ne

such

pro

mi-

nen

t ad

van

ce in

tech

no

log

y in

clu

des

th

e p

oss

ibil

ity

to d

eriv

e

map

s im

med

iate

ly a

>er

dat

a h

as b

een

acq

uir

ed b

y ac

cess

ing

and

dis

sem

inat

ing

map

s th

rou

gh t

he

inte

rnet

. Oth

er s

ign

i'-

can

t d

evel

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men

ts i

ncl

ud

e lo

cati

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-bas

ed s

ervi

ces,

mo

bil

e

cart

ogr

aph

y an

d a

ugm

ente

d r

eali

ty.

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ile

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abo

ve a

dva

nce

s h

ave

enab

led

sig

ni'

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t p

rogr

ess

in t

he

des

ign

an

d i

mp

lem

enta

tio

n o

f n

ew w

ays

of

map

pro

-

du

ctio

n o

ver

the

pas

t d

ecad

e, m

any

cart

ogr

aph

ic p

rin

cip

les

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ain

un

chan

ged

, th

e m

ost

imp

ort

ant

on

e b

ein

g th

at m

aps

are

an a

bst

ract

ion

of

real

ity.

Vis

ual

izat

ion

of

sele

cted

in

for-

mat

ion

mea

ns

that

so

me

feat

ure

s p

rese

nt

in r

eali

ty a

re d

e-

pic

ted

mo

re p

rom

inen

tly

than

oth

ers,

wh

ile

man

y fe

atu

res

mig

ht

no

t ev

en b

e d

epic

ted

at

all.

Ab

stra

ctin

g re

alit

y m

akes

a m

ap p

ow

erfu

l, as

it

hel

ps

to e

#ci

entl

y u

nd

erst

and

an

d i

n-

terp

ret

very

co

mp

lex

situ

atio

ns

.

Ab

stra

ctio

n i

s es

sen

tial

in

all

sta

ges

of

the

dis

aste

r m

a-

nag

emen

t cy

cle.

In

th

e re

cove

ry p

has

e q

uic

k p

rod

uct

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of

imag

ery

of

the

a&ec

ted

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req

uir

ed u

sin

g d

epic

-

tio

ns

wh

ich

all

ow

th

e em

erge

ncy

tea

ms

to u

nd

erst

and

th

e

situ

atio

n o

n g

rou

nd

fro

m a

gla

nce

at

the

map

s. I

mp

ort

ant

on

-go

ing

dev

elo

pm

ents

su

pp

ort

ing

the

resc

ue

wo

rk i

n t

he

reco

very

p

has

e ar

e m

ap

der

ivat

ion

te

chn

olo

gies

, cr

ow

d

sou

rcin

g, n

eo-c

arto

grap

hy

tech

niq

ues

an

d l

oca

tio

n-b

ased

serv

ices

. $

e ro

le o

f ca

rto

grap

hy

in t

he

pro

tect

ion

ph

ase

of

the

dis

aste

r m

anag

emen

t cy

cle

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alw

ays

bee

n c

ruci

al.

In

this

ph

ase

risk

map

s ar

e p

rod

uce

d w

hic

h e

nab

le g

ove

rno

rs,

dec

isio

n m

aker

s, e

xper

ts a

nd

th

e ge

ner

al p

ub

lic

alik

e to

un

-

der

stan

d t

he

kin

d a

nd

leve

ls o

f ri

sk p

rese

nt

in t

he

surr

ou

nd

-

ing

area

s. M

od

ern

car

togr

aph

y en

able

s th

e ge

ner

al p

ub

lic

on

a vo

lun

tary

bas

is t

o p

arti

cip

ate

in m

od

elli

ng

and

vis

ual

izin

g

the

risk

s in

th

eir

nei

ghb

ou

rho

od

. Mo

der

n c

arto

grap

hy

also

hel

ps

to q

uic

kly

dis

sem

inat

e cr

uci

al i

nfo

rmat

ion

.

In t

his

sen

se c

arto

grap

hy

is m

ost

rel

evan

t. W

ith

ou

t m

aps

we

wo

uld

be

“sp

atia

lly

bli

nd

”. K

no

wle

dge

ab

ou

t sp

atia

l rel

atio

ns

and

loca

tio

n o

f ob

ject

s is

mo

st im

po

rtan

t fo

r h

and

lin

g d

isas

-

ters

an

d c

risi

s si

tuat

ion

s o

r si

mp

ly t

o b

e ab

le t

o m

ake

goo

d

dec

isio

ns.

Car

togr

aph

y is

als

o m

ost

co

nte

mp

ora

ry,

as n

ew

and

in

no

vati

ve t

ech

no

logi

es h

ave

an i

mp

act

on

ho

w m

aps

are

pro

du

ced

. Map

s ca

n b

e d

eriv

ed a

uto

mat

ical

ly f

rom

geo

-

dat

a ac

qu

isit

ion

met

ho

ds

such

as

lase

r sc

ann

ing,

rem

ote

sen

sin

g o

r se

nso

r-n

etw

ork

s. S

mar

t m

od

els

of g

eod

ata

can

be

bu

ilt

allo

win

g in

-dep

th a

nal

ysis

of

stru

ctu

res

and

pat

tern

s.

Fig

ure

2:

Exa

mp

le o

f vi

sual

izat

ion

of

theo

reti

cal

dan

ger

zon

e ge

ner

ated

aro

un

d t

he

loca

tio

n o

f ac

cid

ent

Fig

ure

1: C

on

text

s in

ad

apta

bil

e ca

rto

grap

hy

Page 113: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

113

AN

NE

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7

Fig

ure

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ple

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visu

aliz

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f th

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ent

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ng

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e co

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int

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ch a

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lish

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nfo

rmat

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d C

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hy

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ited

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ecn

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tan

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dro

va, S

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igh

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liti

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Ch

ina

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r R

isk

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agem

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ject

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licy

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ers

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e in

form

ed a

bo

ut

con

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po

rary

car

togr

aph

y in

ear

ly w

arn

ing

and

cri

sis

ma-

nag

emen

t.

ww

w.i

caci

.org

Page 114: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

114A

NN

EX 7

Th

e I

nte

rnati

on

al

Yer

ach

Doy

tsh

er

$e

Inte

rnat

ion

al F

eder

atio

n o

f Su

rvey

ors

is

an i

nte

rnat

i-

on

al,

no

n-g

ove

rnm

ent

org

aniz

atio

n w

ho

se p

urp

ose

is

to

sup

po

rt i

nte

rnat

ion

al c

oll

abo

rati

on

fo

r th

e p

rogr

ess

of

sur-

veyi

ng

in a

ll '

eld

s an

d a

pp

lica

tio

ns.

FIG

is

the

pre

mie

r in

tern

atio

nal

org

aniz

atio

n r

epre

sen

tin

g

the

inte

rest

s o

f su

rvey

ors

wo

rld

wid

e. I

t is

a f

eder

atio

n o

f th

e

nat

ion

al m

emb

er a

sso

ciat

ion

s an

d c

ove

rs t

he

wh

ole

ran

ge

of

pro

fess

ion

al '

eld

s w

ith

in t

he

glo

bal

su

rvey

ing

com

mu

ni-

ty.

FIG

pro

vid

es a

n i

nte

rnat

ion

al f

oru

m f

or

dis

cuss

ion

an

d

dev

elo

pm

ent

aim

ing

to p

rom

ote

pro

fess

ion

al p

ract

ices

an

d

stan

dar

ds.

As

a U

N-r

eco

gniz

ed n

on

-go

vern

men

t o

rgan

izat

ion

(N

GO

),

rep

rese

nti

ng

mo

re t

han

120

co

un

trie

s ar

ou

nd

th

e w

orl

d,

FIG

aim

s to

en

sure

th

at t

he

dis

cip

lin

es o

f su

rvey

ing

and

all

wh

o p

ract

ice

them

mee

t th

e n

eed

s o

f th

e m

ark

ets

and

th

e

com

mu

nit

ies

that

th

ey s

erve

.

A p

rofe

ssio

n, a

rmed

wit

h k

no

wle

dge

an

d b

est

pra

c tic

es, e

x-

ten

din

g th

e u

sefu

lnes

s o

f su

rvey

ing

for

the

ben

e't

of s

oci

ety,

envi

ron

men

t an

d e

con

om

y, in

cre a

sin

gly

po

siti

on

ed in

sig

ni-

'ca

nce

an

d r

elev

ance

to

man

kin

d.

FIG

dra

ws

its

mem

ber

ship

fro

m p

ract

itio

ner

s w

ork

ing

in

the

pu

bli

c an

d p

riva

te s

ecto

rs;

fro

m t

he

scie

n ti

'c,

res

earc

h

and

aca

dem

ic c

om

mu

nit

y;

and

, fr

om

th

e sp

atia

l te

chn

olo

-

gies

an

d s

ervi

ces

com

mu

nit

y. $

e fo

rmal

mem

ber

s o

f F

IG

incl

ud

e:

Mem

ber

ass

oci

atio

ns

– n

atio

nal

ass

oci

atio

ns

rep

rese

nti

ng

on

e o

r m

ore

of

the

dis

cip

lin

es o

f su

rvey

ing;

A"

liat

es –

gro

up

s o

f su

rvey

ors

or

surv

eyin

g o

rg an

izat

ion

s

un

der

tak

ing

pro

fess

ion

al a

ctiv

itie

s b

ut

no

t fu

l'll

ing

the

cri-

teri

a fo

r m

emb

er a

sso

ciat

ion

s;

Co

rpo

rate

mem

ber

s –

org

aniz

atio

ns,

in

stit

uti

on

s, o

r ag

en-

cies

wh

ich

pro

vid

e co

mm

erci

al s

ervi

ces

re la

ted

to

th

e su

r-

veyi

ng

pro

fess

ion

;

Aca

dem

ic m

emb

ers

– o

rgan

izat

ion

s, i

nst

itu

tio

ns,

or

agen

-

cies

wh

ich

pro

mo

te e

du

cati

on

or

rese

arch

in

on

e o

r m

ore

of

the

dis

cip

lin

es o

f su

rvey

ing.

Ten

co

mm

issi

on

s le

ad F

IG’s

tec

hn

ical

wo

rk.

$ei

r te

rms

of

refe

ren

ce a

re a

s fo

llo

ws:

Com

mis

sio

n 1

- P

rofe

ssio

nal P

ractice

Per

cep

tio

n o

f su

rvey

ing

pro

fess

ion

; p

rofe

ssio

nal

pra

ctic

e,

lega

l as

pec

ts a

nd

org

aniz

atio

nal

str

uct

ure

s; s

tan

dar

ds

and

cert

i'ca

tio

n;

cod

e o

f et

hic

s an

d a

pp

li ca

tio

ns;

un

der

-rep

re-

sen

ted

gro

up

s in

su

rvey

ing;

in

form

atio

n t

ech

no

log

y m

a-

nag

emen

t an

d p

rofe

s sio

nal

pra

ctic

e; p

roje

ct m

anag

emen

t,

qu

alit

y an

d b

est

pra

ctic

es.

Com

mis

sio

n 2

- P

rofe

ssio

nal E

ducation

Cu

rric

ulu

m d

evel

op

men

t; l

earn

ing

and

tea

chin

g m

et h

od

s

and

tec

hn

olo

gies

; ed

uca

tio

nal

man

agem

ent

and

mar

ket

ing;

con

tin

uo

us

pro

fess

ion

al d

evel

op

men

t; n

etw

ork

ing

in e

du

ca-

tio

n a

nd

tra

inin

g.

Com

mis

sio

n 3

- S

patial In

form

ation M

anage

-

ment

Man

agem

ent

of

spat

ial

info

rmat

ion

ab

ou

t la

nd

, p

ro p

erty

and

mar

ine

dat

a; s

pat

ial

dat

a in

fras

tru

ctu

re –

dat

a co

llec

-

tio

n, a

nal

ysis

, vis

ual

izat

ion

, sta

nd

ard

i zat

ion

, dis

sem

inat

ion

,

and

su

pp

ort

of

goo

d g

ove

r nan

ce;

kn

ow

led

ge m

anag

emen

t

for

SIM

; bu

sin

ess

mo

del

s, p

ub

lic-

pri

vate

-par

tner

ship

s, p

ro-

fess

ion

al p

ract

ice

and

ad

min

istr

atio

n.

Com

mis

sio

n 4

- H

ydro

gra

phy

Hyd

rogr

aph

ic s

urv

eyin

g; h

ydro

grap

hic

ed

uca

tio

n,

trai

nin

g

and

CP

D;

mar

ine

envi

ron

men

t an

d c

oas

tal

zon

e m

anag

e-

men

t; d

ata

pro

cess

ing

and

man

age m

ent;

nau

tica

l ch

arti

ng

and

bat

hym

etri

c m

aps

– a

na l

ogu

e an

d d

igit

al,

incl

ud

ing

elec

tro

nic

nav

igat

ion

al c

har

ts.

Com

mis

sio

n 5

- P

ositio

nin

g a

nd M

easure

ment

$e

scie

nce

o

f m

easu

rem

ent

incl

ud

ing

inst

rum

ent a

tio

n,

met

ho

do

log

y an

d g

uid

elin

es;

the

acq

uis

itio

n o

f ac

cura

te

and

rel

iab

le s

urv

ey d

ata

rela

ted

to

th

e p

osi

tio

n, s

ize

and

sh

a-

pe

of

nat

ura

l an

d a

rti'

cial

fea

tu re

s o

f th

e ea

rth

an

d i

ts e

nvi

-

ron

men

t an

d i

ncl

ud

ing

vari

atio

n w

ith

tim

e.

Acq

uis

itio

n,

pro

cess

ing

and

m

anag

emen

t o

f to

po

met

ric

dat

a; q

ual

ity

con

tro

l an

d v

alid

atio

n f

or

civi

l en

gin

eeri

ng

con

stru

ctio

n

and

m

anu

fact

uri

ng;

m

od

ern

co

nce

pts

fo

r

sett

ing-

ou

t an

d m

ach

ine

guid

ance

; d

efo

rmat

ion

mo

nit

o-

rin

g sy

stem

s; a

uto

mat

ic m

ea su

rin

g sy

stem

s, m

ult

i-se

nso

r

mea

suri

ng

syst

ems;

ter

rest

rial

lase

r sy

stem

s.

Com

mis

sio

n 7

- C

adastr

e a

nd L

and M

anage

-

ment

Cad

astr

e, l

and

ad

min

istr

atio

n a

nd

lan

d m

anag

e men

t; d

eve-

lop

men

t o

f p

ro p

oo

r la

nd

man

agem

ent

and

lan

d a

dm

inis

-

trat

ion

; d

evel

op

men

t o

f su

stai

nab

le l

and

ad

min

istr

atio

n a

s

Page 115: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

115

AN

NE

X

7an

in

fras

tru

ctu

re f

or

sust

ain

able

dev

elo

pm

ent

to u

nd

erp

in

eco

no

mic

gro

wth

; ap

pli

cati

on

s o

f in

no

vati

ve a

nd

ad

van

ced

tech

no

log

y in

cad

astr

e an

d la

nd

ad

min

istr

atio

n.

-

op

ment

Reg

ion

al a

nd

loca

l str

uct

ure

pla

nn

ing;

urb

an a

nd

ru

ral l

and

use

pla

nn

ing

and

im

ple

men

tati

on

; p

lan

nin

g p

oli

cies

an

d

envi

ron

men

tal

man

agem

ent

for

sust

ain

able

dev

elo

pm

ent;

pu

bli

c-p

riva

te p

artn

er sh

ips;

in

form

al s

ettl

emen

t is

sues

in

spat

ial d

evel

op

men

t, p

lan

nin

g an

d g

ove

rnan

ce.

Com

mis

sio

n 9

- V

alu

ation a

nd t

he M

anage

-

ment

of

Real E

sta

te

Val

uat

ion

; in

vest

men

t in

rea

l es

tate

an

d i

nve

stm

ent

pla

n-

nin

g; r

eal e

stat

e, d

evel

op

men

t '

nan

ce a

nd

lan

d u

se f

easi

bil

i-

ty p

lan

nin

g; r

eal

esta

te e

con

om

ics

and

mar

ket

s an

d m

ark

et

anal

yses

; m

anag

emen

t o

f p

ro p

erty

an

d p

rop

erty

sys

tem

s;

man

agem

ent

of

pu

bli

c se

cto

r p

rop

erty

.

Com

mis

sio

n 1

0 -

Constr

uction E

conom

ics a

nd

Managem

ent

Co

nst

ruct

ion

ec

on

om

ics,

in

clu

din

g q

uan

tity

su

rvey

ing,

bu

ild

ing

surv

eyin

g, c

ost

en

gin

eeri

ng

and

man

a gem

ent;

est

i-

mat

ing

and

ten

der

ing;

co

mm

erci

al m

anag

emen

t in

clu

din

g

pro

cure

men

t, r

isk

man

agem

ent

and

co

ntr

acts

; p

roje

ct m

a-

nag

emen

t in

clu

din

g p

lan

nin

g an

d s

ched

uli

ng.

As

geo

-in

form

atio

n t

ech

no

log

y an

d p

rod

uct

s ar

e im

po

r-

tan

t co

mp

on

ents

fo

r ri

sk a

nd

dis

aste

r m

anag

emen

t, F

IG i

s

act i

vely

in

volv

ed i

n d

i&er

ent

asp

ects

on

th

e to

pic

th

rou

gh

seve

ral

of

its

com

mis

sio

ns.

In

th

is c

on

text

, su

b-t

op

ics

such

as r

isk

map

s, d

amag

e m

aps,

inte

grat

ion

of

dat

aset

s fr

om

dif

-

fere

nt

sou

rces

, an

d e

arly

war

nin

g, s

ho

uld

be

bas

ed o

n a

s-

sess

ing

and

pro

cess

ing

of

geo

spat

ial

dat

a. $

e m

a pp

ing

and

surv

eyin

g co

mm

un

ity

wit

hin

FIG

is

inte

g rat

ing

the

kn

ow

-

led

ge a

nd

exp

erie

nce

of

its

mem

ber

s –

pro

fess

ion

als

as w

ell

as r

esea

rch

ers

– i

n o

rder

to

po

siti

vely

im

pac

t o

n e

mer

gen

cy

resp

on

se,

dis

aste

r p

re p

ared

nes

s, a

nd

ris

k r

edu

ctio

n a

ctiv

i-

ties

, at

the

op

e rat

ion

al a

s w

ell a

s st

rate

gic

leve

ls.

Maj

or

FIG

act

ivit

ies

on

dis

aste

r an

d r

isk

man

age m

ent

are:

Co

mm

issi

on

3 (

Spat

ial

Info

rmat

ion

Man

agem

ent)

is

focu

-

sin

g o

n t

he

tech

nic

al a

spec

ts o

f 2D

, 3D

, an

d 4

D s

pat

ial

dat

a

reco

rdin

g an

d m

anag

emen

t to

su

pp

ort

leg

al,

accu

rate

, an

d

rele

van

t in

tegr

atio

n o

f ge

osp

a tia

l d

ata,

in

ter

alia

, fo

r d

eci-

sio

n m

akin

g, r

isk

-ass

ess m

ent,

an

d d

isas

ter

man

agem

ent

in

gen

eral

an

d in

are

as w

ith

info

rmal

set

tlem

ents

in p

arti

cula

r.

Co

mm

issi

on

5 (

Po

siti

on

ing

and

Mea

sure

men

t) a

nd

Co

m-

mis

sio

n 6

(E

ngi

nee

rin

g Su

rvey

s) a

re w

ork

ing

join

tly

to r

es-

po

nd

to

glo

bal

war

min

g an

d d

isas

ter

man

agem

ent

fro

m t

he

geo

det

ic a

nd

mea

sure

men

t vi

ewp

oin

t.

Co

mm

issi

on

7 (

Cad

astr

e an

d L

and

Man

agem

ent)

is

focu

-

sin

g o

n l

and

ad

min

istr

atio

n,

nat

ura

l d

isas

ters

an

d c

lim

ate

chan

ge.

In t

his

co

nte

xt,

the

com

mis

sio

n i

s ta

rget

ing

bet

ter

pre

par

edn

ess

and

res

po

nse

to

nat

ura

l d

isas

ter

and

cli

mat

e

chan

ge, a

nd

sp

eci'

call

y h

an d

lin

g to

pic

s su

ch a

s: l

and

iss

ues

in d

isas

ter

pre

pa r

edn

ess

and

mit

igat

ion

; lan

d p

oli

cies

in

di-

sast

er m

itig

atio

n; a

nd

th

e u

se o

f ri

sk m

aps

in l

and

use

pla

n-

nin

g an

d la

nd

dev

elo

pm

ent.

Co

mm

issi

on

8 (

Spat

ial

Pla

nn

ing

and

Dev

elo

pm

ent)

is

fo-

cusi

ng

on

lan

d u

se p

lan

nin

g w

hil

e ta

kin

g in

to c

on

sid

erat

ion

dis

aste

r ri

sk m

anag

emen

t e&

ect.

In

par

ticu

lar,

an

alyz

ing

the

role

an

d c

oll

ecti

ve r

es p

on

sib

ilit

y o

f su

rvey

ors

an

d o

ther

ex-

per

ts o

n t

he

bu

ilt

envi

ron

men

ts f

or

wel

l-fu

nct

ion

ing

urb

an

regi

on

s an

d m

ega

citi

es,

incl

ud

ing

inte

grat

ed d

isas

ter

risk

man

agem

ent

as a

dis

cip

lin

e.

ww

w."

g.n

et

Fig

ure

1: E

xam

ple

s o

f F

IG C

om

mis

sio

ns‘

Act

ivit

ies

Fig

ure

2: M

ore

Exa

mp

les

of

FIG

Co

mm

issi

on

s‘ A

ctiv

itie

s

Page 116: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

116A

NN

EX 7

Inte

rnati

on

al

S. H

aru

yam

a a

nd

M. M

ead

ows

Geo

grap

hy

is t

he

dis

cip

lin

e th

at a

ttem

pts

to

exp

lore

ho

w e

nvi

ron

men

ts e

mer

ge b

y n

atu

-

ral

pro

cess

es,

ho

w s

oci

etie

s p

rod

uce

, o

rgan

ize,

use

an

d m

i-

suse

en

viro

nm

ents

, an

d h

ow

so

ciet

ies

them

selv

es a

re i

n%

u-

ence

d b

y th

e en

viro

nm

ents

in

wh

ich

th

ey a

re l

oca

ted

. $u

s,

geo

grap

hy

aim

s to

stu

dy

bo

th n

atu

ral

and

hu

man

rea

lms

and

th

eir

inte

ract

ion

s, f

ocu

sin

g o

n s

pac

e, p

lace

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on

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dd

ress

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th s

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rt-t

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ltan

t p

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rns.

$e

pu

rpo

ses

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Inte

rnat

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nal

Geo

grap

hic

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nio

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rim

aril

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pro

mo

te t

he

dis

ci-

pli

ne

of

geo

grap

hy

thro

ugh

init

iati

ng

and

co

ord

inat

ing

geo

-

grap

hic

al r

esea

rch

th

at is

inte

rnat

ion

al in

sco

pe

and

e&

ecte

d

thro

ugh

th

e in

stru

men

ts o

f it

s va

rio

us

Co

mm

issi

on

s an

d

Tas

k F

orc

es. $

ere

are

curr

entl

y 41

Co

mm

issi

on

s w

ith

in t

he

IGU

, eac

h r

un

by

a st

eeri

ng

com

mit

tee

of

inte

rnat

ion

ally

re-

spec

ted

sci

enti

sts,

an

d s

ever

al o

f th

ese

com

mis

sio

ns

enga

ge

in p

roje

cts

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hav

e st

ron

g re

leva

nce

to

th

e '

eld

of

dis

aste

r

mit

igat

ion

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d m

anag

emen

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ost

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ecia

lly

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mm

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on

C12

.18

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ard

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isk’

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mm

issi

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on

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ard

an

d R

isk

pla

ys a

n i

mp

ort

ant

role

in

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mo

tin

g th

e d

isas

ter

risk

sci

ence

an

d d

isas

ter

risk

red

uct

ion

. $

ere

are

a n

um

ber

of

app

roac

hes

, fo

r ex

amp

le,

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m t

he

per

spec

tive

of

hu

man

geo

grap

hy

that

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focu

s o

n

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par

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act

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cal

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aste

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nes

. H

um

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d u

se a

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lan

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(an

oth

er I

GU

Co

mm

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on

to

pic

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r im

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ts, w

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key

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iati

ves

dea

lin

g w

ith

co

mm

un

ity

stru

ctu

re a

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dis

aste

r

risk

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sk c

om

mu

nic

atio

n a

nd

dis

aste

r re

sili

ence

. P

hys

ical

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grap

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plo

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ctu

re o

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e n

atu

ral

envi

ron

-

men

t an

d p

roce

sses

th

at p

rom

ote

dis

aste

rs i

n '

eld

s su

ch a

s

clim

ato

log

y,

geo

mo

rph

olo

gy,

b

ioge

ogr

aph

y an

d

hyd

rolo

-

gy

usi

ng,

fo

r ex

amp

le,

rem

ote

sen

sin

g te

chn

olo

gy

and

GIS

thro

ugh

ob

serv

atio

n, m

easu

rin

g, r

eco

rdin

g an

d a

nal

ysis

.

on H

azard

and R

isk?

$e

Co

mm

issi

on

id

enti

'es

its

mis

sio

n a

s fo

llo

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nst

ruct

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ork

s w

ith

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ted

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enci

es

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a

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grap

hic

al

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roac

h

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ha-

zard

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isk

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aim

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mo

tin

g fu

rth

er

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ecti

ve

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ent

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arch

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s w

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th

ese

org

aniz

atio

ns.

$e

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ject

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o c

on

du

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bli

sh r

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rch

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r h

azar

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nd

risk

m

itig

atio

n

emp

loyi

ng

GIS

tech

no

log

y w

ith

rem

ote

sen

sin

g

and

lan

dsc

ape

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die

s.

To

co

nti

nu

e to

d

evel

op

cl

ose

lin

ks

wit

h s

ever

al i

nte

rnat

ion

al

dis

aste

r p

reve

nti

on

ass

oci

atio

ns

and

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e IR

DR

esp

ecia

lly

thro

ugh

enga

gin

g yo

un

ger

rese

arch

ers.

$e

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ject

ive

is

to

pro

mo

te

rou

nd

tab

les

for

dis

cuss

ion

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n

risk

man

agem

ent

and

to

co

ntr

i-

bu

te t

o s

oci

al i

nte

rch

ange

.

To

ext

end

its

wo

rk o

n t

he

role

of

geo

grap

hy

in c

op

ing

wit

h d

i-

sast

er

thro

ugh

ed

uca

tio

n.

$e

ob

ject

ive

is t

o a

sses

s th

e u

pta

ke

of

the

con

cep

t o

f su

stai

nab

le d

e-

velo

pm

ent

in c

urr

icu

lum

mat

eria

ls a

nd

pro

mo

te t

he-

se i

dea

s th

rou

gh t

he

mee

tin

gs o

f th

e C

om

mis

sio

n a

nd

thro

ugh

par

tici

pat

ion

in

IG

U R

egio

nal

Co

nfe

ren

ces

and

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ngr

esse

s.

To

co

nti

nu

e to

dev

elo

p s

tati

stic

al a

pp

roac

hes

to

eva

lu-

ate

regi

on

al r

isk

s fr

om

th

e k

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wle

dge

of

atm

osp

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rela

ted

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tho

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ere-

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ard

s st

atis

tics

.

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lore

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e is

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erti

'ca

tio

n a

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lan

d d

egra

-

dat

ion

an

d t

he

way

th

ese

pro

cess

es i

ncr

ease

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aste

r

risk

wit

h t

he

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ject

ive

of

dev

elo

pin

g su

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le s

olu

-

tio

ns

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eser

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cati

on

.

Fig

ure

1:

$e

larg

est

%o

od

on

rec

ord

in

th

e M

eko

ng

regi

on

of

Vie

tnam

occ

urr

ed i

n

the

year

200

0 an

d s

ever

al a

reas

%o

od

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xper

ien

ced

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un

dat

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fo

r m

ore

th

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ix

mo

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s. G

eom

orp

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logi

cal a

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ta s

ugg

ests

th

at t

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th

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ack

-sw

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s

are

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erie

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itig

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iall

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su

ch a

reas

.

Page 117: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

117

AN

NE

X

7C

om

mis

sio

n o

n H

azard

and R

isk

$e

scie

nti

'c

and

tec

hn

ical

pro

gram

me

of

the

Co

mm

issi

-

on

is

led

by

the

chai

r, P

rofe

sso

r Sh

igek

o H

aru

yam

a, a

nd

ten

mem

ber

s o

f th

e St

eeri

ng

Co

mm

itte

e w

ho

are

res

po

n si

ble

for

par

ticu

lar

top

ics.

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r ex

amp

le,

the

wo

rkin

g gr

ou

p o

n

dis

aste

r as

sess

men

t an

d m

itig

atio

n w

as f

orm

ed t

o i

nve

sti-

gate

, fr

om

a s

cien

ti'

c an

d t

ech

nic

al p

oin

t o

f vi

ew,

the

role

of

rem

ote

sen

sin

g in

man

agin

g th

e co

nse

qu

ence

s o

f ‘n

atu

ral’

and

‘m

an-m

ade’

di s

aste

rs a

nd

aim

s at

in

form

ing

and

act

i-

vati

ng

peo

ple

in

volv

ed i

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ori

ng,

mit

igat

ion

and

dam

age

asse

ssm

ent

fro

m b

oth

pu

bli

c in

stit

uti

on

s an

d

pri

vate

co

mp

anie

s. $

e m

ain

go

als

incl

ud

e th

e d

evel

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-

men

t o

f ap

pro

pri

ate

too

ls a

nd

met

ho

do

lo gi

es i

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elat

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hu

man

dim

ensi

on

of

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aste

r ri

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sses

smen

t, a

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nag

emen

t o

f th

e ge

ner

atio

n o

f vu

lner

abil

ity

and

haz

ard

ris

k

map

s fo

r d

i&er

ent

typ

es o

f ge

oh

azar

ds,

su

ch a

s ty

ph

oo

ns

and

cy c

lon

es, %

oo

ds,

dro

ugh

ts, e

arth

qu

akes

, lan

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ides

etc

..

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rth

er o

bje

ctiv

es o

f th

e gr

ou

p i

ncl

ud

e th

e id

enti

'ca

tio

n

and

ass

essm

ent

of

geo

mo

rph

olo

gica

l ri

sk, i

nte

grat

ion

of

re-

mo

te s

ensi

ng,

an

d e

arly

war

nin

g, m

on

ito

rin

g, a

nd

dam

age

asse

ssm

ent

in c

oll

abo

rati

on

wit

h e

ngi

nee

rs a

s w

ell a

s th

e d

e-

velo

pm

ent

of

risk

co

mm

un

icat

ion

.

Fo

r fu

rth

er i

nfo

rmat

ion

on

th

e IG

U C

om

mis

sio

n o

n H

a-

zard

an

d R

isk

co

nta

ct t

he

chai

rper

son

, P

rofe

sso

r Sh

igek

o

Har

uya

ma:

h

aru

yam

a@b

io.m

ie-u

.ac.

jp;

ww

w.b

io.m

ie-u

.

ac.jp

/~h

aru

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a/ig

u/

$e

Inte

rnat

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al C

ou

nci

l fo

r S

cien

ce (

ICSU

) h

as r

ecen

tly

fun

ded

an

im

po

rtan

t IG

U i

nit

iati

ve t

hat

aim

s to

dev

elo

p

net

wo

rkin

g ar

ou

nd

dis

aste

r st

ud

ies

in L

atin

Am

eric

a an

d

the

Car

ibb

ean

. L

and

slid

e d

isas

ters

hav

e m

ajo

r im

pac

ts i

n

dev

elo

pin

g co

un

trie

s d

ue

to t

he

soci

al v

uln

erab

ilit

y o

f co

m-

mu

nit

ies

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th

e ab

sen

ce o

f in

tegr

ated

ris

k r

esea

rch

. $

is

pro

ject

re

cogn

izes

th

e im

po

rtan

ce

of

inte

grat

ed

lan

dsl

i-

de

rese

arch

fo

r d

isas

ter

risk

, an

d p

arti

cula

rly

the

nec

essi

ty

to p

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ote

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acit

y b

uil

din

g fo

r yo

un

g sc

ien

tist

s in

Lat

in

Am

eric

a b

y sh

i>in

g th

e d

isas

ter

par

adig

m t

o r

eco

gniz

e th

e

“un

nat

ura

lnes

s” o

f d

isas

ters

. In

rec

ent

dec

ades

lan

dsl

ide

dis

aste

rs i

n L

atin

Am

eric

a, t

rigg

ered

by

bo

th p

reci

pit

atio

n

and

ear

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es,

hav

e in

crea

sed

co

nsi

der

ably

. $

eref

ore

,

scie

nti

'c

con

trib

uti

on

s to

war

ds

red

uci

ng

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vuln

erab

ilit

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ose

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om

mu

nit

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to l

and

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es a

re u

rgen

tly

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ded

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LA

ND

SCA

PE

-LA

C f

ocu

ses

on

th

e n

eed

to

dev

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im

-

ple

men

t in

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dsl

ide

rese

arch

fo

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ter

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m

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ult

i- a

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dis

cip

lin

ary

app

roac

h r

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gnis

ing

that

scie

nti

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ach

ieve

men

ts m

ust

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visi

bly

use

ful

for

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etie

s.

Un

der

stan

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g ri

sk a

nd

in

vest

igat

ing

the

nat

ura

l an

d s

oci

-

al d

imen

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aste

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riti

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cess

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or

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aste

r

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du

ctio

n.

Co

nse

qu

entl

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inte

grat

ed

risk

re

sear

ch

is

rega

rded

as

a k

ey f

acto

r fo

r su

stai

nab

le d

evel

op

men

t, s

ince

dis

aste

rs h

ave

incr

easi

ngl

y b

eco

me

an o

bst

acle

to

dev

elo

p-

men

t, p

arti

cula

rly

in v

uln

erab

le c

ou

ntr

ies

exp

ose

d t

o s

uch

haz

ard

s. A

s su

ch,

stre

ngt

hen

ing

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acit

y b

uil

din

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ro-

mo

tin

g d

isas

ter

risk

res

earc

h o

n l

and

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es w

ou

ld h

elp

to

incr

ease

res

ilie

nce

an

d a

war

enes

s in

th

e L

atin

-Am

eric

an

regi

on

.

Fo

r fu

rth

er in

form

atio

n c

on

tact

th

e p

roje

ct le

ader

, Pro

fess

or

Iras

ema

Alc

ánta

ra A

yala

: ira

sem

a@ig

g.u

nam

.mx

ww

w.i

gu

-on

lin

e.o

rg

Fig

ure

2:

Flo

od

ass

essm

ent

in t

he

Mek

on

g D

elta

un

der

scen

ario

s o

f se

a le

vel

rise

. F

loo

d i

nu

nd

atio

n w

as c

alcu

late

d

for

seve

ral

futu

re s

cen

ario

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f %

oo

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g in

th

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elta

an

d t

he

resu

ltan

t %

oo

d a

sses

smen

t il

lust

rate

s th

e ex

pan

sio

n o

f in

un

-

dat

ion

are

as g

iven

pro

ject

ed s

ea le

vel r

ise.

Fig

ure

3:

Ris

k c

om

mu

nic

atio

n a

nd

reg

ion

al p

lan

nin

g fo

r

mit

igat

ion

in

th

e M

eko

ng

del

ta.

Ph

oto

sh

ow

s a

mee

tin

g

bet

wee

n o

#ce

rs o

f th

e lo

cal

gove

rnm

ent

and

geo

grap

her

s

dis

cuss

ing

po

ssib

le m

itig

atio

n i

nte

rven

tio

ns.

Page 118: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

118A

NN

EX 7

for

Ph

oto

gra

mm

etr

y a

nd

Ch

rist

ian

Hei

pke

$e

Inte

rnat

ion

al S

oci

ety

for

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oto

gram

met

ry a

nd

Rem

ote

Sen

sin

g (I

SPR

S) i

s a

no

n-g

ove

rnm

enta

l o

rgan

isat

ion

dev

o-

ted

to

th

e d

evel

op

men

t o

f in

tern

atio

nal

co

op

erat

ion

fo

r th

e

adva

nce

men

t o

f p

ho

togr

amm

etry

, re

mo

te s

ensi

ng

and

sp

a-

tial

in

form

atio

n s

cien

ces

and

th

eir

app

lica

tio

ns.

$

e S

oci

e-

ty o

per

ates

wit

ho

ut

any

dis

crim

inat

ion

on

gro

un

ds

of

race

,

reli

gio

n,

nat

ion

alit

y, o

r p

oli

tica

l p

hil

oso

ph

y. E

stab

lish

ed i

n

1910

by

Pro

fess

or

Do

leža

l fr

om

th

e T

ech

nic

al U

niv

ersi

ty o

f

Vie

nn

a, A

ust

ria,

ISP

RS

is t

he

old

est

inte

rnat

ion

al u

mb

rel-

la o

rgan

isat

ion

in

its

'el

ds,

wh

ich

may

be

sum

mar

ized

as

add

ress

ing

“in

form

atio

n f

rom

im

ager

y.”

$e

pri

nci

pal

act

ivit

ies

of

ISP

RS

are:

1.

Stim

ula

tin

g th

e fo

rmat

ion

of

nat

ion

al o

r re

gio

nal

So

-

ciet

ies

of

Ph

oto

gram

met

ry, R

emo

te S

ensi

ng

and

Sp

atia

l

Info

rmat

ion

Sci

ence

s.

2.

Init

iati

ng

and

co

ord

inat

ing

rese

arch

in p

ho

togr

amm

et-

ry a

nd

rem

ote

sen

sin

g an

d s

pat

ial i

nfo

rmat

ion

sci

ence

s.

3.

Ho

ldin

g in

tern

atio

nal

Sym

po

sia

and

Co

ngr

esse

s at

re-

gula

r in

terv

als.

4.

En

suri

ng

wo

rld

wid

e ci

rcu

lati

on

of

the

reco

rds

of

dis

-

cuss

ion

an

d t

he

resu

lts

of

rese

arch

by

pu

bli

cati

on

of

the

Inte

rnat

ion

al A

rch

ives

of

Ph

oto

gram

met

ry,

Rem

o-

te S

ensi

ng

and

Sp

atia

l In

form

atio

n S

cien

ces

and

th

e

new

ly e

stab

lish

ed p

eer-

revi

ewed

In

tern

atio

nal

An

nal

s

of

Ph

oto

gram

met

ry, R

emo

te S

ensi

ng

and

Sp

atia

l In

for-

mat

ion

Sci

ence

s.

5.

En

cou

ragi

ng

the

pu

bli

cati

on

an

d e

xch

ange

of

scie

nti

-

'c

pap

ers

and

jo

urn

als

dea

lin

g w

ith

ph

oto

gram

met

ry

and

rem

ote

sen

sin

g an

d s

pat

ial

scie

nce

s, i

n p

arti

cula

r

in t

he

ISP

RS

Jou

rnal

s o

n P

ho

togr

amm

etry

an

d R

emo

te

Sen

sin

g an

d t

he

ISP

RS

Inte

rnat

ion

al J

ou

rnal

of

Geo

-

Info

rmat

ion

.

$e

scie

nti

'c

and

tec

hn

ical

pro

gram

me

of

ISP

RS

is o

rga-

niz

ed b

y ei

ght

Tec

hn

ical

Co

mm

issi

on

s.

Eac

h C

om

mis

sio

n

is c

om

pri

sed

of

a n

um

ber

of

Wo

rkin

g G

rou

ps

wh

ich

are

res

-

po

nsi

ble

for

par

ticu

lar

top

ics

wit

hin

th

e C

om

mis

sio

ns’

are

as

of

resp

on

sib

ilit

y. $

e IS

PR

S co

nfe

ren

ce p

rogr

amm

e in

clu

-

des

a q

uad

ren

nia

l Co

ngr

ess,

Tec

hn

ical

Co

mm

issi

on

Sym

po

-

sia

hel

d i

n t

he

even

nu

mb

ered

yea

r b

etw

een

th

e C

on

gres

ses

and

wo

rksh

op

s o

rgan

ized

by

the

Wo

rkin

g G

rou

ps

at r

egu

lar

inte

rval

s.

Ph

oto

gram

met

ry i

s u

sed

fo

r th

e d

eriv

atio

n o

f 3D

in

form

a-

tio

n o

f p

oin

ts, l

ines

an

d a

reas

on

th

e te

rrai

n f

rom

aer

ial a

nd

sate

llit

e im

ages

fo

r th

e d

evel

op

men

t o

f ge

osp

atia

l d

atab

ases

and

sp

atia

l in

form

atio

n s

yste

ms

(SIS

). $

e d

ata

can

be

use

d

in d

igit

al,

grap

hic

al a

nd

ort

ho

ph

oto

fo

rms

as m

aps,

ch

arts

and

ove

rlay

s. P

ho

togr

amm

etry

is

also

use

d f

or

the

gen

eral

mea

sure

men

t an

d i

nte

rpre

tati

on

of

ob

ject

s fr

om

im

ages

,

imag

e se

qu

ence

s,

and

o

ther

n

on

-co

nta

ct

tech

niq

ues

, b

y

pro

vid

ing

pre

cise

3D

po

int

coo

rdin

ates

an

d o

ther

geo

met

ric

and

sem

anti

c o

bje

ct i

nfo

rmat

ion

fo

r p

op

ula

tin

g sp

atia

l d

a-

tab

ases

an

d f

or

crea

tin

g vi

rtu

al r

eali

ty 3

D s

cen

es w

ith

rea

l-

life

tex

ture

d m

od

els.

By

ob

serv

ing

the

Ear

th f

rom

air

- an

d s

pac

e-b

orn

e p

latf

orm

s

rem

ote

sen

sin

g p

rovi

des

th

e b

asis

fo

r m

app

ing

of

hu

man

Fig

ure

s 1

and

2: E

xam

ple

s o

f re

mo

te s

ensi

ng

and

sp

atia

l in

form

atio

n a

nal

ysis

Page 119: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

119

AN

NE

X

7an

d n

atu

ral

acti

viti

es;

for

mo

nit

ori

ng

chan

ge;

for

asse

s-

sin

g an

d m

itig

atin

g d

isas

ters

; fo

r id

enti

fyin

g an

d a

sses

sin

g

no

n-r

enew

able

res

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rces

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r m

on

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g te

mp

ora

l ch

ange

s

in w

eath

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lan

d a

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sea

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ver;

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man

y o

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ap

pli

-

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on

s. S

pat

ial

and

sem

anti

c d

escr

ipti

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s o

f o

bje

cts

and

feat

ure

s ar

e d

eriv

ed f

rom

3D

mea

sure

men

ts o

f im

ager

y,

and

th

e in

terp

reta

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n o

f th

eir

spec

tral

an

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eman

tic

attr

i-

bu

tes

fro

m p

anch

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atic

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ltis

pec

tral

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d o

ther

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ote

ly

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sed

dat

a.

$e

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ject

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mag

es, a

s w

ell

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ora

l re

lati

on

ship

s b

etw

een

ph

ysic

al o

bje

cts

and

pro

cess

es, c

an b

e in

tegr

ated

wit

h o

ther

dat

a u

sin

g ap

pro

ach

es f

rom

Sp

atia

l In

form

atio

n S

cien

ce f

or

anal

ysis

, si

mu

lati

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, p

red

icti

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d v

isu

aliz

atio

n i

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epen

-

den

t o

f sc

ale.

Sp

atia

l In

form

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n S

cien

ce is

bei

ng

app

lied

in

urb

an a

nd

in

fras

tru

ctu

re p

lan

nin

g, l

and

an

d r

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e m

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emen

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on

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rin

g th

e en

viro

nm

ent,

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d u

nd

erst

and

ing

man

y o

ther

nat

ura

l an

d m

an-m

ade

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cess

es a

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ph

eno

-

men

a.

Wit

hin

ISP

RS

the

mai

n a

ctiv

itie

s in

dis

aste

r m

anag

emen

t

and

res

po

nse

are

po

ole

d i

n C

om

mis

sio

n V

III

and

mo

re

spec

i'ca

lly

in W

ork

ing

Gro

up

VII

I/1

enti

tled

„D

isas

ter

and

risk

red

uct

ion“

. $e

wo

rkin

g gr

ou

p is

ch

aire

d b

y T

. Sri

niv

asa

Ku

mar

fro

m t

he

Ind

ian

Nat

ion

al C

entr

e fo

r O

cean

In

for-

mat

ion

Ser

vice

s (I

NC

OIS

) in

Hyd

erab

ad,

Cee

s va

n W

este

n

fro

m I

TC

, Un

iver

sity

of

Tw

ente

, th

e N

eth

erla

nd

s, a

nd

Fab

io

Giu

lio

To

no

lo f

rom

th

e In

form

atio

n T

ech

no

log

y fo

r H

um

a-

nit

aria

n A

ssis

tan

ce,

Co

op

erat

ion

an

d A

ctio

n (

ITH

AC

A)

in

To

rin

o, I

taly

ser

ve a

s co

-ch

airs

.

$e

task

s o

f th

e w

ork

ing

gro

up

are

th

e ge

ner

atio

n o

f vu

l-

ner

abil

ity

and

haz

ard

zo

ne

map

s fo

r d

i&er

ent

typ

e o

f d

isas

-

ters

, su

ch a

s fo

rest

're

, cy

clo

ne,

%o

od

s, d

rou

ght,

vo

lcan

o

eru

pti

on

s, e

arth

qu

akes

, lan

dsl

ides

etc

. an

d t

he

iden

ti'

cati

on

and

ass

essm

ent

of

po

ten

tial

ris

k z

on

es, t

he

inte

grat

ion

of

re-

mo

tely

sen

sed

ob

serv

atio

ns

and

co

mm

un

icat

ion

str

ateg

ies

wit

h e

nh

ance

d p

red

icti

ve m

od

elli

ng

cap

abil

itie

s fo

r d

isas

ter

det

ecti

on

, ea

rly

war

nin

g, m

on

ito

rin

g,  

dam

age

asse

ssm

ent

and

res

po

nse

, an

d t

he

dev

elo

pm

ent

of

dis

aste

r m

anag

emen

t

pla

ns

for

pre

, du

rin

g an

d p

ost

dis

aste

r si

tuat

ion

s to

en

han

ce

sup

po

rt f

or

earl

y w

arn

ing

syst

ems,

em

erge

ncy

eve

nts

mit

i-

gati

on

an

d d

ecis

ion

mak

ing.

In t

his

way

th

e w

ork

ing

gro

up

aim

s to

pro

mo

te t

he

dev

e-

lop

men

t o

f to

ols

an

d m

eth

od

olo

gies

th

at s

up

po

rt d

isas

ter

risk

red

uct

ion

by

usi

ng

rem

ote

sen

sin

g, G

IS a

nd

en

han

ced

pre

dic

tive

mo

del

lin

g ca

pab

ilit

ies

in s

up

po

rt o

f ri

sk a

sses

s-

men

t, d

etec

tio

n, e

arly

war

nin

g, m

on

ito

rin

g, d

amag

e as

sess

-

men

t an

d r

esp

on

se. T

ow

ard

s th

is g

oal

, th

e w

ork

ing

gro

up

is

enga

ged

in

org

anis

ing

wo

rksh

op

s an

d o

ther

sci

enti

'c

and

tech

nic

al m

eeti

ngs

to

exc

han

ge l

ates

t d

evel

op

men

ts a

s w

ell

as t

o p

rovi

de

lin

ks

to p

ub

licl

y av

aila

ble

res

ou

rces

to

su

pp

ort

dis

aste

r ri

sk r

edu

ctio

n.

Fu

rth

er,

the

wo

rkin

g gr

ou

p c

oll

a-

bo

rate

s w

ith

ISP

RS

Tec

hn

ical

Co

mm

issi

on

I a

nd

oth

er r

e-

leva

nt

wo

rkin

g gr

ou

ps 

as w

ell

as i

nte

rnat

ion

al b

od

ies

such

as t

he

Gro

up

on

Ear

th O

bse

rvat

ion

(G

EO

), t

he

Co

mm

itte

e

on

Ear

th O

bse

rvat

ion

Sat

elli

tes

(CE

OS)

, th

e In

tern

atio

nal

Glo

bal

Ob

serv

ing

Stra

teg

y (I

GO

S) a

nd

th

e In

tern

atio

nal

Ch

arte

r o

n S

pac

e an

d M

ajo

r D

isas

ters

(IC

SMD

) to

en

han

ce

rem

ote

ob

serv

ing

cap

abil

itie

s.

Bes

ides

th

e ac

tivi

ties

at

the

wo

rkin

g gr

ou

p l

evel

, IS

PR

S is

the

mai

n c

on

trib

uto

r to

th

e G

eo-i

nfo

rmat

ion

fo

r D

isas

ter

man

agem

ent

(Gi4

DM

) co

nfe

ren

ce s

erie

s. G

i4D

M i

s an

an

-

nu

al c

on

fere

nce

dev

ote

d t

o t

he

use

an

d a

pp

lica

tio

n o

f ge

o-

info

rmat

ion

tec

hn

olo

gy

in d

isas

ter

man

agem

ent.

$e

fun

-

dam

enta

l go

al o

f th

e co

nfe

ren

ce is

to

pro

vid

e a

foru

m w

her

e

dis

aste

r m

anag

ers,

sta

keh

old

ers,

res

earc

her

s, d

ata

pro

vid

ers

and

sys

tem

dev

elo

per

s ca

n d

iscu

ss c

hal

len

ges,

sh

are

exp

eri-

ence

, dis

cuss

new

idea

s, d

emo

nst

rate

tec

hn

olo

gy

and

an

aly-

se f

utu

re r

esea

rch

to

war

d b

ette

r su

pp

ort

of

risk

an

d d

isas

ter

man

agem

ent

acti

viti

es.

Eig

ht

edit

ion

s o

f th

ese

con

fere

nce

s h

ave

tak

en p

lace

in D

el>

,

$e

Net

her

lan

ds,

(M

arch

200

5),

Go

a, I

nd

ia,

(Sep

tem

ber

2006

), T

oro

nto

, C

anad

a, (

May

200

7),

Har

bin

, C

hin

a (A

u-

gust

, 20

08),

Pra

gue,

Cze

ch R

epu

bli

c (J

anu

ary

2009

), T

uri

n,

Ital

y (F

ebru

ary

2010

), A

nta

lya,

Tu

rkey

(M

ay, 2

011)

an

d E

n-

sch

ede,

th

e N

eth

erla

nd

s (D

ecem

ber

, 201

2). $

e 9t

h G

i4D

M

mee

tin

g w

ill

tak

e p

lace

in

Han

oi,

Vie

tnam

in

Dec

emb

er

2013

.

Gi4

DM

has

bee

n o

rgan

ised

in

co

op

erat

ion

wit

h d

i&er

ent

inte

rnat

ion

al b

od

ies

such

as

ISP

RS,

OO

SA,

ICA

, IS

CR

AM

FIG

, IA

G, 

OG

C, W

FP

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d s

up

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rted

by

nat

ion

al o

rgan

isa-

tio

ns

such

as

GIN

(N

eth

erla

nd

s) a

nd

CIG

(C

anad

a).

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ce

2008

, G

i4D

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s co

ord

inat

ed b

y th

e Jo

int

Bo

ard

of

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spa-

tial

In

form

atio

n S

oci

etie

s (J

B G

IS)

ad-h

oc

Co

mm

itte

e o

n

Ris

k a

nd

Dis

aste

r M

anag

emen

t.

ww

w.i

sprs

.org

Fig

ure

3: C

row

d s

ou

rcin

g fo

r th

e H

aiti

ear

thq

uak

e re

spo

nse

Page 120: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

120A

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ww

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ject

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ph

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stu

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Ch

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form

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Geo

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on

s o

f th

e U

nio

n A

sso

ciat

ion

s d

eal

wit

h s

pec

i'c

nat

ura

l h

azar

d a

nd

ris

k p

rob

lem

s an

d a

ssis

t in

dis

aste

r ri

sk m

anag

emen

t re

leva

nt

bo

die

s, f

or

exam

ple

,

IAC

S’s

Div

isio

n o

n S

no

w a

nd

Ava

lan

ches

,

IAG

’s G

lob

al G

eod

etic

Ob

serv

ing

Syst

em,

IAG

A’s

exp

erti

se i

n s

pac

e w

eath

er r

esea

rch

,

IAH

S’s

exp

erti

se i

n h

ydro

logi

cal

haz

ard

s an

d r

isk

ma-

nag

emen

t,

IAM

AS’

s ex

per

tise

in

met

eoro

logi

cal r

isk

s,

IAP

SO-I

ASP

EI-

IAV

CE

I C

om

mis

sio

n o

n T

sun

ami,

IASP

EI

Co

mm

issi

on

on

Ear

thq

uak

e H

azar

d,

Ris

k,

and

Stro

ng

Gro

un

d M

oti

on

, an

d

IAV

CE

I’s e

xper

tise

in

vo

lcan

ic r

isk

s.

To

co

ord

inat

e th

e ac

tivi

ties

of t

he

Inte

rnat

ion

al A

sso

ciat

ion

s

in t

he

'el

d o

f n

atu

ral h

azar

ds

and

dis

aste

r ri

sk r

esea

rch

, th

e

IUG

G U

nio

n C

om

mis

sio

n o

n G

eop

hys

ical

Ris

k a

nd

Su

sta-

inab

ilit

y (G

RC

; h

ttp

://w

ww

.iugg

-geo

risk

.org

) w

as e

stab

lis-

hed

in

200

0 to

pro

mo

te s

tud

ies

on

th

e in

tera

ctio

n b

etw

een

haz

ard

s, t

hei

r li

kel

iho

od

an

d t

hei

r w

ider

so

cial

co

nse

qu

en-

ces

as a

res

ult

of

the

vuln

erab

ilit

y o

f so

ciet

ies.

GR

C f

ocu

ses

on

th

e sc

ien

ti'

c st

ud

ies

aim

ed a

t th

e re

du

ctio

n o

f ri

sk f

rom

nat

ura

l h

azar

ds

in a

n i

ncr

easi

ngl

y u

rban

ized

wo

rld

an

d a

t

enh

anci

ng

resi

lien

ce o

f so

ciet

ies

and

su

stai

nab

le d

evel

op

-

men

t, r

edu

cin

g d

eath

an

d d

estr

uct

ion

fro

m n

atu

ral

haz

ard

s

by

pro

vid

ing

haz

ard

s d

ata

and

in

form

atio

n t

o e

mer

gen

cy

man

ager

s, p

oli

cy-m

aker

s, s

cien

tist

s an

d t

he

gen

eral

pu

bli

c

in t

he

mo

st t

imel

y an

d e

&ec

tive

man

ner

. O

ne

of

the

rece

nt

acti

viti

es o

f G

RC

was

th

e tr

ans-

dis

cip

lin

ary

EN

HA

NS

pro

-

ject

(h

ttp

://w

ww

.en

han

s.o

rg).

IUG

G c

oo

per

ates

clo

sely

wit

h t

he

Sci

enti

'c

Co

mm

itte

e “I

n-

tegr

ated

Res

earc

h o

n D

isas

ter

Ris

k” (

IRD

R)

co-s

po

nso

red

by

the

Inte

rnat

ion

al C

ou

nci

l fo

r S

cien

ce (

ICSU

), t

he

Inte

r-

nat

ion

al S

oci

al S

cien

ces

Co

un

cil

(ISS

C),

an

d t

he

Un

ited

Nat

ion

s In

tern

atio

nal

Str

ateg

y fo

r D

isas

ter

Ris

k R

edu

ctio

n

(UN

ISD

R).

IU

GG

via

its

Ass

oci

atio

ns

and

GR

C a

lso

co

op

e-

rate

s w

ith

th

e W

orl

d M

eteo

rolo

gica

l O

rgan

izat

ion

(W

HO

)

and

th

e In

tern

atio

nal

Civ

il A

viat

ion

Org

aniz

atio

n (

ICA

O)

in t

he

area

of

volc

anic

ash

ris

k a

nd

est

abli

shed

in

201

0 a

join

t IU

GG

-WM

O V

olc

anic

Ash

Sci

enti

'c

Ad

viso

ry G

rou

p;

wit

h U

NE

SCO

th

rou

gh t

he

Inte

rgo

vern

men

tal

Oce

ano

gra-

ph

ic C

om

mis

sio

n (

IOC

) o

n t

sun

ami

haz

ard

s an

d r

isk

s, t

he

Inte

rnat

ion

al H

ydro

logi

cal

Pro

gram

on

wat

er r

isk

man

age-

men

t, a

nd

an

d t

he

Dis

aste

r P

rep

ared

nes

s an

d M

itig

atio

n

Pro

gram

on

geo

haz

ard

s ri

sks.

$e

foll

ow

ing

sect

ion

pre

sen

ts s

pec

i'c

acti

viti

es o

f th

e In

-

tern

atio

nal

Ass

oci

atio

n o

f G

eod

esy,

in

nat

ura

l h

azar

ds

and

dis

aste

r ri

sk m

anag

emen

t.

ww

w.i

ug

g.o

rg

Inte

rnati

on

al

Un

ion

of

Geo

desy a

nd

Ali

k Is

mai

l-Z

adeh

$e

Inte

rnat

ion

al

Un

ion

o

f G

eod

esy

and

Geo

ph

ysic

s (I

UG

G)

is a

n i

nte

rna-

tio

nal

, no

n-g

ove

rnm

enta

l, n

on

-pro

't

org

aniz

atio

n e

stab

lis-

hed

in

Bru

ssel

s, B

elgi

um

, on

28

July

191

9. I

UG

G i

s d

edic

a-

ted

to

th

e sc

ien

ti'

c st

ud

y o

f th

e E

arth

an

d i

ts e

nvi

ron

men

t

in s

pac

e an

d t

he

app

lica

tio

n o

f k

no

wle

dge

gai

ned

by

such

stu

die

s to

ben

e't

soci

ety.

IU

GG

pro

mo

tes

and

co

ord

inat

es

ph

ysic

al,

chem

ical

, an

d m

ath

emat

ical

stu

die

s o

f th

e E

arth

incl

ud

ing

the

shap

e o

f th

e E

arth

; th

e n

atu

re o

f it

s gr

avit

a-

tio

nal

an

d m

agn

etic

'el

ds;

th

e d

ynam

ics

of

the

Ear

th a

s a

wh

ole

an

d o

f it

s co

mp

on

ent

par

ts; t

he

Ear

th‘s

inte

rnal

str

uc-

ture

, co

mp

osi

tio

n, a

nd

tec

ton

ics;

th

e ge

ner

atio

n o

f m

agm

as;

volc

anis

m a

nd

ro

ck f

orm

atio

n; t

he

hyd

rolo

gica

l cyc

le i

ncl

u-

din

g sn

ow

an

d i

ce; t

he

ph

ysic

s an

d c

hem

istr

y o

f th

e o

cean

s;

the

atm

osp

her

e, i

on

osp

her

e, m

agn

eto

sph

ere

and

so

lar-

ter-

rest

rial

rel

atio

ns;

an

d a

nal

ogo

us

pro

ble

ms

asso

ciat

ed w

ith

the

Mo

on

an

d o

ther

pla

net

s. T

od

ay,

IUG

G i

s co

mp

rise

d o

f

eigh

t se

mi-

auto

no

mo

us

Inte

rnat

ion

al

Ass

oci

atio

ns,

ea

ch

resp

on

sib

le f

or

a sp

eci'

c ra

nge

of

top

ics

wit

hin

th

e o

vera

ll

sco

pe

of

Un

ion

act

ivit

ies:

cryo

sph

eric

sci

ence

s (I

AC

S; w

ww

.cry

osp

her

icsc

ien

ces.

org

),

geo

des

y (I

AG

; ww

w.i

ag-a

ig.o

rg),

geo

mag

net

ism

an

d a

ero

no

my

(IA

GA

; w

ww

.iugg

.org

/

IAG

A),

hyd

rolo

gica

l sci

ence

s (I

AH

S; i

ahs.

info

),

met

eoro

log

y an

d a

tmo

sph

eric

sci

ence

s (I

AM

AS;

ww

w.

iam

as.o

rg),

ph

ysic

al s

cien

ces

of

the

oce

ans

(IA

PSO

; iap

so.iu

gg.o

rg),

seis

mo

log

y an

d p

hys

ics

of

the

Ear

th’s

in

teri

or

(IA

SPE

I;

Page 121: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

121

AN

NE

X

7In

tern

ati

on

al A

sso

cia

tio

n

of

Geo

desy

Her

man

n D

rew

es

Geo

det

ic t

ech

niq

ues

en

able

us

to m

on

ito

r

con

tin

uo

usl

y an

d i

n n

earl

y re

al t

ime

the

pre

lim

inar

y,

coin

cid

enta

l an

d

sub

seq

uen

t

ph

eno

men

a an

d p

roce

sses

of

Ear

th d

isas

ters

. C

urr

entl

y th

e

mo

st i

mp

ort

ant

tech

niq

ues

are

pre

cise

po

int

po

siti

on

ing

at

the

soli

d E

arth

su

rfac

e, g

lob

al g

ravi

ty '

eld

det

erm

inat

ion

,

and

rem

ote

sen

sin

g o

ver

con

tin

ents

an

d o

cean

s.

$e

Inte

rnat

ion

al A

sso

ciat

ion

of

Geo

des

y (I

AG

) co

nce

ntr

a-

tes

on

th

ese

acti

viti

es b

y m

ean

s o

f it

s C

om

mis

sio

ns

and

Ser

-

vice

s an

d t

he

Glo

bal

Geo

det

ic O

bse

rvin

g Sy

stem

(G

GO

S).

$er

e ar

e fo

ur

Co

mm

issi

on

s o

n “

Ref

eren

ce F

ram

es”,

“Gra

-

vity

Fie

ld”,

“Ear

th R

ota

tio

n a

nd

Geo

dyn

amic

s”,

and

“P

osi

-

tio

nin

g an

d A

pp

lica

tio

ns”

stu

dyi

ng

ob

serv

atio

n t

ech

niq

ues

and

dat

a an

alys

is m

eth

od

s. F

i>ee

n I

nte

rnat

ion

al S

cien

ti'

c

Ser

vice

s d

eal

wit

h t

he

pra

ctic

al r

eali

zati

on

of

the

geo

met

ric

and

gra

vim

etri

c o

bse

rvat

ion

s, a

nd

th

e ge

ner

atio

n o

f p

ro-

du

cts

for

a m

yria

d o

f ap

pli

cati

on

s. $

e G

GO

S co

mb

ines

the

resu

lts

of

the

Co

mm

issi

on

s an

d o

utp

uts

of

the

Ser

vice

s.

So

me

exam

ple

s o

f su

ch p

rod

uct

s ar

e d

iscu

ssed

bel

ow

.

Po

int

po

siti

on

ing

is p

red

om

inat

ely

do

ne

by

sate

llit

e an

d

spac

e te

chn

iqu

es, m

ain

ly S

atel

lite

Las

er R

angi

ng

(SL

R),

Glo

-

bal

Nav

igat

ion

Sat

elli

te S

yste

ms

(GN

SS),

Do

pp

ler

Orb

ito

gra-

ph

y an

d R

adio

-po

siti

on

ing

Inte

grat

ed b

y Sa

tell

ite

(DO

RIS

),

and

ast

ron

om

ic V

ery

Lo

ng

Bas

elin

e In

terf

ero

met

ry (

VL

BI)

.

Glo

bal

an

d r

egio

nal

sta

tio

n n

etw

ork

s o

f th

ese

tech

niq

ues

are

mo

nit

ori

ng

con

tin

uo

usl

y th

eir

pre

cise

geo

met

ric

po

siti

on

s,

and

hen

ce a

re c

apab

le o

f d

etec

tin

g an

y d

efo

rmat

ion

of

the

Ear

th’s

su

rfac

e. F

igu

re 1

sh

ow

s th

e d

efo

rmat

ion

of t

he

cen

tral

zon

e o

f So

uth

Am

eric

a a>

er t

he

2010

Mau

le e

arth

qu

ake

in

Ch

ile,

wit

h d

isp

lace

men

ts u

p t

o 4

m (

San

chez

et

al.,

2013

).

We

clea

rly

see

an i

ncr

ease

of

the

grav

ity

acce

lera

tio

n b

y

mo

re t

han

76

· 10

-8 m

s-2

in t

he

con

tin

enta

l fa

ult

sid

e an

d

less

th

an -

67 ·

10-8

ms-

2 in

th

e o

cean

ic s

ide

(1 μ

Gal

= 1

0-8

ms-

2).

$e

grav

ity

chan

ges

may

be

tran

sfo

rmed

in

to m

ass

tran

spo

rt d

uri

ng

the

seis

mic

eve

nt.

On

e o

f th

e m

ost

co

mm

on

rem

ote

sen

sin

g te

chn

iqu

es o

ver

oce

ans

is s

atel

lite

rad

ar a

ltim

etry

. Sev

eral

mis

sio

ns

are

con

ti-

nu

ou

sly

mo

nit

ori

ng

the

glo

bal

oce

an s

urf

ace

wit

h c

m-p

reci

-

sio

n, t

he

mo

st p

reci

se b

ein

g T

OP

EX

/Po

seid

on

an

d J

aso

n-1

.

Fig

ure

3 s

ho

ws

the

com

par

iso

n o

f se

a su

rfac

e h

eigh

ts f

rom

trac

ks

10 d

ays

bef

ore

th

e In

dia

n O

cean

Tsu

nam

i 200

4 (b

lack

lin

es)

and

fro

m t

he

%yo

vers

du

rin

g th

e T

sun

ami

(blu

e an

d

red

lin

es).

We

see

the

Tsu

nam

i w

ave

wit

h h

eigh

ts g

reat

er

than

1 m

in

th

e o

pen

sea

. $

ese

sign

als

are

tod

ay t

ran

smit

-

ted

to

an

ear

ly w

arn

ing

syst

em in

th

e In

dia

n O

cean

in o

rder

to a

lert

vu

lner

able

cit

ies

and

isl

and

s in

th

e re

gio

n.

ww

w.i

ag-a

ig.o

rg

Fig

ure

1:

GP

S st

atio

n d

isp

lace

men

ts a

>er

th

e M

aule

ear

th-

qu

ake,

Ch

ile,

27

Feb

ruar

y 20

10

Mas

s d

isp

lace

men

ts p

rod

uce

ch

ange

s in

th

e E

arth

gra

vity

'el

d.

$es

e ch

ange

s ar

e m

on

ito

red

by

com

pu

tin

g gl

ob

al

epo

ch g

ravi

ty m

od

els

fro

m r

epea

ted

orb

its

of

sate

llit

e gr

avi-

ty m

issi

on

s, s

uch

as

the

Gra

vity

Rec

ove

ry a

nd

Cli

mat

e E

x-

per

imen

t (G

RA

CE

) an

d t

he

Gra

vity

'el

d a

nd

ste

ady-

stat

e

Oce

an C

ircu

lati

on

Exp

lore

r (G

OC

E),

bef

ore

an

d a

>er

an

even

t. F

igu

re 2

sh

ow

s th

e gr

avit

y si

gnal

pro

du

ced

by

the

mas

s d

isp

lace

men

ts o

f th

e 20

11 T

oh

oku

ear

thq

uak

e in

Jap

an

(Fu

chs

et a

l., 2

013)

.

Fig

ure

2:

Sign

al o

f m

ass

dis

pla

cem

ents

in

th

e E

arth

gra

vity

'el

d f

rom

th

e T

oh

oku

ear

thq

uak

e, J

apan

, 11

Mar

ch 2

011

Fig

ure

3: S

ea s

urf

ace

hei

ghts

fro

m T

OP

EX

/Po

seid

on

an

d J

a-

son

-1 t

rack

s b

efo

re a

nd

du

rin

g th

e In

dia

n O

cean

Tsu

nam

i,

26 D

ecem

ber

200

4 (B

osc

h, 2

013)

.

Page 122: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

122A

NN

EX 7

Th

e I

nte

rnati

on

al

Un

ion

of

Geo

log

ical

Ian

Lam

bert

an

d R

olan

d O

berh

änsl

i

$e

IUG

S is

th

e w

orl

d l

arge

st g

eosc

ien

ti'

c u

nio

n r

epre

sen

-

tin

g o

ver

1 m

illi

on

geo

scie

nti

sts

thro

ugh

its

121

Ad

her

ing

Mem

ber

s an

d 5

3 A

#li

ated

Org

anis

atio

ns.

$e

Un

ion

is

an

inte

rnat

ion

al

no

n-g

ove

rnm

enta

l o

rgan

izat

ion

d

evo

ted

to

inte

rnat

ion

al c

oo

per

atio

n i

n t

he

'el

d o

f ge

olo

gy.

It

aim

s

to p

rom

ote

dev

elo

pm

ent

of

the

Ear

th s

cien

ces

thro

ugh

th

e

sup

po

rt o

f b

road

-bas

ed s

cien

ti'

c st

ud

ies

rele

van

t to

th

e

enti

re E

arth

sys

tem

; to

ap

ply

th

e re

sult

s o

f th

ese

and

oth

er

stu

die

s to

pre

serv

ing

the

Ear

th‘s

nat

ura

l en

viro

nm

ent,

usi

ng

all n

atu

ral r

eso

urc

es w

isel

y an

d i

mp

rovi

ng

the

pro

sper

ity

of

nat

ion

s an

d t

he

qu

alit

y o

f h

um

an li

fe; a

nd

to

str

engt

hen

pu

-

bli

c aw

aren

ess

of

geo

log

y an

d a

dva

nce

geo

logi

cal

edu

cati

on

in t

he

wid

est

sen

se.

IUG

S fo

ster

s d

ialo

gue

and

co

mm

un

icat

ion

am

on

g th

e va

ri-

ou

s sp

ecia

list

s in

Ear

th s

cien

ces

aro

un

d t

he

wo

rld

. It

ach

ie-

ves

this

by

org

aniz

ing

inte

rnat

ion

al p

roje

cts

and

mee

tin

gs,

spo

nso

rin

g sy

mp

osi

a an

d s

cien

ti'

c '

eld

tri

ps,

an

d p

rod

u-

cin

g p

ub

lica

tio

ns.

To

pic

s ad

dre

ssed

sp

an t

he

gam

ut

fro

m

fun

dam

enta

l re

sear

ch t

o i

ts e

con

om

ic a

nd

in

du

stri

al a

pp

li-

cati

on

s, a

nd

fro

m s

cien

ti'

c, e

nvi

ron

men

tal a

nd

so

cial

issu

es

to e

du

cati

on

al a

nd

dev

elo

pm

enta

l pro

ble

ms.

IUG

S w

ork

s th

rou

gh it

s C

om

mis

sio

ns,

Tas

k G

rou

ps

and

In

-

itia

tive

s, p

lus

join

t p

rogr

ams

wit

h o

ther

Geo

scie

nce

un

ion

s,

such

as

the

Inte

rnat

ion

al U

nio

n o

f G

eod

esy

and

Geo

ph

ysic

s

(IU

GG

). O

ne

of

the

maj

or

task

s o

f IU

GS

is p

rovi

din

g st

an-

dar

ds

- fo

r ex

amp

le f

or

geo

info

rmat

ion

sys

tem

s an

d s

trat

i-

grap

hy.

$e

un

ion

is

buil

din

g on

its

sec

ond

str

ateg

ic p

lan

(20

12).

Wh

ile

min

eral

res

ourc

es, w

ater

an

d e

ner

gy w

ill b

e ce

ntr

al t

o-

pic

s, a

sso

ciat

ed r

isks

an

d c

on%

icti

ng

inte

rest

s w

ill b

e in

clu

ded

.

Sci

enti

'c

inp

uts

to

dis

aste

r an

d r

isk

res

earc

h f

rom

IU

GS

mem

ber

s an

d s

cien

tist

s ar

e fo

cuse

d i

n t

he

Co

mm

issi

on

s o

n

Geo

scie

nce

for

En

viro

nm

ent

Man

agem

ent

(GE

M)

and

Geo

-

scie

nce

In

form

atio

n (

CG

I); a

nd

th

e IU

GS-

UN

ESC

O G

eolo

-

gica

l Ap

pli

cati

on

s o

f R

emo

te S

ensi

ng

(GA

RS)

pro

gram

. Ad

-

dit

ion

ally

, so

me

oth

er d

isas

ter

risk

red

uct

ion

act

ivit

ies

are

cove

red

by

the

Tas

k G

rou

p T

ecto

nic

s an

d S

tru

ctu

ral

Geo

-

log

y (T

EC

TA

SK)

and

th

e jo

int

IUG

S-IU

GG

In

tern

atio

nal

Lit

ho

sph

ere

Pro

gram

(IL

P).

Ou

tlin

es o

f so

me

imp

ort

ant

the

acti

viti

es f

oll

ow

.

GE

is

no

w

com

pri

sed

o

f se

ven

in

div

idu

al

wo

rkin

g

gro

up

s: 

Du

st,

Go

ld

and

 M

ercu

ry,

Lan

d

Sub

sid

ence

an

d

Gro

un

dw

ater

, C

lim

ate

Ch

ange

A

dap

tati

on

, M

an

Mad

e

Stra

ta a

nd

Geo

po

llu

tio

n,

Dri

nk

ing

Wat

er,

and

Geo

logi

cal

Haz

ard

s an

d T

erri

tori

al S

ust

ain

abil

ity.

Its

fo

rmer

Wo

rkin

g

Gro

up

on

Fo

ren

sic

Geo

log

y b

ecam

e a

sep

arat

e IU

GS

Init

i-

ativ

e in

201

0.

$is

is

co

nce

rned

w

ith

th

e im

pro

vem

ent

of

inve

stig

ati-

on

an

d u

nd

erst

and

ing

of

bo

th d

ust

an

d o

ther

par

ticu

late

s

(PM

10s

and

'n

er e

mis

sio

ns)

. D

ust

per

form

s an

im

po

rtan

t

fun

ctio

n i

n t

he

atm

osp

her

e, w

ith

in

div

idu

al p

arti

cles

act

ing

as n

ucl

eati

on

cen

ters

fo

r d

rop

lets

th

at b

eco

me

pre

cip

itat

ion

esse

nti

al to

life

an

d g

eom

orp

ho

logi

cal p

roce

sses

. Im

pac

ts o

n

peo

ple

, ag

ricu

ltu

re,

live

sto

ck a

nd

th

e n

atu

ral

envi

ron

men

t

are

maj

or

stu

dy

ob

ject

s o

f th

is g

rou

p.

Clim

ate

Change A

dap

tation

$e

mai

n f

ocu

s is

to

im

pro

ve u

nd

erst

and

ing

of

the

nee

d

for,

an

d n

atu

re o

f, a

dap

tati

on

to

cli

mat

e ch

ange

. $

e '

eld

of

adap

tati

on

see

ks

to r

edu

ce h

um

an v

uln

erab

ilit

ies

to t

he

imp

acts

of

a ch

angi

ng

clim

ate.

$e

inte

nti

on

is

to i

nfo

rm

abo

ut

bes

t p

ract

ice

exam

ple

s o

f p

lan

ned

or

imp

lem

ente

d

adap

tati

on

mea

sure

s an

d t

o m

ake

thes

e av

aila

ble

.

Man-m

ade S

trata

Man

-mad

e st

rata

are

wid

ely

dis

trib

ute

d i

n u

rban

ised

an

d

adja

cen

t ar

eas

as a

res

ult

of

anth

rop

oge

nic

act

ivit

ies

esp

e-

cial

ly d

uri

ng

inte

nsi

ve i

nd

ust

rial

dev

elo

pm

ent.

$es

e st

rata

com

pri

se c

ult

ura

l la

yers

, la

nd

'll

s, w

aste

man

agem

ent

site

s,

aban

do

ned

in

du

stri

al l

and

, m

ine

tail

ings

, n

on

-rem

edia

ted

po

llu

tio

n s

ites

an

d o

ther

fo

rmat

ion

s ac

cum

ula

ted

wit

ho

ut

pro

per

en

viro

nm

enta

l m

anag

emen

t, m

on

ito

rin

g an

d t

reat

-

men

t. I

UG

S se

eks

dev

elo

pin

g st

and

ard

s re

gard

ing

haz

ard

thre

ats

fro

m m

an m

ade

stra

ta.

Ext

ract

ion

o

f gr

ou

nd

wat

er

can

le

ad

to

sign

i'ca

nt 

sub

-

sid

ence

, in

clu

din

g d

epre

ssio

n o

f th

e gr

ou

nd

su

rfac

e o

r '

s-

suri

ng

of

the

gro

un

d. 

Dam

age

to p

rop

erty

an

d i

nfr

astr

uc-

ture

an

d i

ncr

ease

d %

oo

d p

ote

nti

al,

par

ticu

larl

y in

co

asta

l

pla

ins

and

del

tas,

 res

ult

fro

m t

hes

e gr

ou

nd

mo

vem

ents

. $is

wo

rkin

g gr

ou

p a

ims

to e

xam

ine

the

nat

ure

, ex

ten

t an

d m

e-

chan

ism

s o

f su

bsi

den

ce a

sso

ciat

ed w

ith

gro

un

dw

ater

wit

h-

dra

wal

an

d m

eth

od

s fo

r re

char

gin

g aq

uif

ers

to r

edu

ce t

he

imp

acts

of

thes

e gr

ou

nd

mo

vem

ents

.  

$e

aim

of

this

in

itia

tive

is

to d

evel

op

fo

ren

sic

geo

log

y in

-

tern

atio

nal

ly a

nd

pro

mo

te i

ts a

pp

lica

tio

ns

by 

coll

atin

g an

d

dis

sem

inat

ing

dat

a an

d i

nfo

rmat

ion

on

fo

ren

sic

geo

log

y

app

lied

to

po

lici

ng

and

law

en

forc

emen

t, c

rim

inal

an

d c

ivil

inve

stig

atio

ns,

an

d d

isas

ters

.

Page 123: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

123

AN

NE

X

7$

e m

issi

on

of C

GI

is to

en

able

the

glo

bal

exc

han

ge o

f kn

ow

-

led

ge a

bo

ut

geo

scie

nce

in

form

atio

n a

nd

sys

tem

s, w

hic

h i

s

vita

l as

app

lica

tio

ns

of

IT a

re t

he

key

to

th

e fu

ture

exp

loit

ati-

on

of

geo

logi

cal k

no

wle

dge

fo

r th

e b

ene'

t o

f so

ciet

y.

Spec

i'ca

lly

CG

I m

ajo

r ta

sk h

ow

ever

is

sup

po

rtin

g an

d d

e-

velo

pin

g st

and

ard

s. I

t ai

ms

to p

rovi

de

the

mea

ns

for

tran

s-

ferr

ing

kn

ow

led

ge o

n g

eosc

ien

ce i

nfo

rmat

ion

an

d s

yste

ms.

It s

tim

ula

tes

inte

rnat

ion

al d

isse

min

atio

n o

f b

est

pra

ctic

e in

geo

scie

nce

in

form

atio

n.

$e

GA

RS

Pro

gram

- a

par

tner

ship

bet

wee

n I

UG

S an

d

UN

ESC

O -

con

trib

ute

s to

ad

van

cem

ent

of

geo

logi

cal

re-

sear

ch a

nd

dev

elo

pin

g u

nd

erst

and

ing

of

the

Ear

th s

yste

m,

in o

rder

to

ad

dre

ss p

rob

lem

s o

f re

leva

nce

to

th

e w

elfa

re o

f

the

Ear

th’s

po

pu

lati

on

. Sin

ce 2

005,

th

ere

has

bee

n a

du

al f

o-

cus

on

geo

haz

ard

s an

d g

rou

nd

wat

er is

sues

. Bu

ild

ing

on

pre

-

vio

us

GA

RS

stu

die

s in

to la

nd

slid

e h

azar

ds

in L

atin

Am

eric

a

and

vo

lcan

ic h

azar

ds

in A

sia,

GA

RS

has

bee

n a

n i

mp

ort

ant

spo

nso

r fo

r d

evel

op

men

t an

d i

mp

lem

enta

tio

n o

f th

e In

te-

grat

ed G

lob

al O

bse

rvin

g St

rate

gy

(IG

OS)

fo

r G

eoh

azar

ds.

IUG

S h

as i

nit

iate

d e

valu

atio

n o

f in

form

atio

n g

aps

that

are

lim

itin

g p

red

icti

on

s o

f w

her

e m

ajo

r ts

un

ami a

re li

kel

y to

oc-

cur

in t

he

futu

re –

in

par

ticu

lar,

an

im

po

rtan

t ga

p a

pp

ears

to b

e sy

stem

atic

stu

die

s o

f th

e p

rese

nce

an

d a

ges

of

pal

eo-

tsu

nam

i d

epo

sits

in

th

e re

cen

t ge

olo

gica

l re

cord

in

co

asta

l

area

s ad

jace

nt

to s

ub

du

ctio

n z

on

es.

ww

w.i

ug

s.o

rg

Fig

ure

1: A

igu

ille

de

Tsa

, Den

t B

lan

che

nap

pe,

Sw

iss

Alp

s (R

. Ob

erh

änsl

i)

Fig

ure

2: C

on

volu

te b

edd

ing,

S o

f V

an, E

aste

rn A

nat

oli

a (R

. Ob

erh

änsl

i)

Page 124: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

124A

NN

EX 7

Inte

rnati

on

al

Un

ion

Fra

nço

is L

efeu

vre

and

Tu

llio

Jose

ph T

anzi

Ele

ctro

mag

net

ic (

EM

) w

aves

car

ry e

ner

gy

thro

ugh

sp

ace.

In

emp

ty s

pac

e, t

hey

pro

pag

ate

at t

he

spee

d o

f li

ght.

$e

ba-

sic

pro

per

ties

, de'

ned

by

Max

wel

l’s e

qu

atio

ns,

are

id

enti

cal

thro

ugh

ou

t th

e el

ectr

om

agn

etic

sp

ectr

um

, i.

e. f

rom

mil

li-

Her

tz t

o 1

024 H

z, b

ut

rad

io s

cien

ce s

top

s sl

igh

tly

abo

ve 1

014

Hz

(op

tica

l co

mm

un

icat

ion

s).

Rad

io s

cien

ce c

ove

rs s

tud

ies

in m

any

'el

ds

incl

ud

ing

the

on

es r

elev

ant

to r

emo

te s

ensi

ng,

nav

igat

ion

, tel

eco

mm

un

icat

ion

an

d e

lect

ron

ic s

cien

ce.

Fig

ure

1: R

adio

sp

ectr

um

(ci

vili

an G

PS

freq

uen

cies

: ~1.

5 G

Hz)

$e

Inte

rnat

ion

al U

nio

n o

f R

adio

Sci

ence

(U

RSI

) w

as f

ou

n-

ded

in

191

9 an

d i

s a

no

n-g

ove

rnm

enta

l an

d n

ot

pro

't

org

a-n

izat

ion

un

der

th

e au

spic

es o

f th

e In

tern

atio

nal

Co

un

cil f

or

Sci

ence

.

UR

SI s

eek

s to

sti

mu

late

an

d t

o c

oo

rdin

ate,

on

an

inte

rnat

io-

nal

bas

is, s

tud

ies

in t

he

'el

ds

of

rad

io s

cien

ce t

hro

ugh

sci

en-

ti'

c an

d t

ech

nic

al s

ymp

osi

a an

d p

ub

lica

tio

ns

and

by

org

ani-

zin

g an

d p

arti

cip

atin

g in

inte

rnat

ion

al s

cien

ti'

c co

mm

itte

es

on

rad

io s

cien

ce.

On

e o

f it

s m

ain

act

ivit

ies

is t

o s

tren

gth

en

the

un

der

stan

din

g o

f – a

nd

to

dev

elo

p e

ngi

nee

rin

g so

luti

on

s

for

- m

easu

rin

g, m

on

ito

rin

g an

d c

on

tro

llin

g n

atu

rall

y o

c-cu

rrin

g an

d m

an-m

ade

elec

tro

mag

net

ic e

mis

sio

ns.

In r

esp

on

se to

an

incr

easi

ng

vuln

erab

ilit

y to

glo

bal

dis

aste

rs,

the

2008

UR

SI G

ener

al A

ssem

bly

cre

ated

a w

ork

ing

gro

up

(W

G)

on

Nat

ura

l an

d H

um

an I

nd

uce

d H

azar

ds

wit

h t

erm

s o

f re

fere

nce

th

at i

ncl

ud

es m

eth

od

s an

d s

trat

egie

s to

co

m-

bat

th

e im

pac

t o

f su

ch e

ven

ts u

sin

g te

chn

iqu

es w

hic

h d

eriv

e fr

om

rad

io s

cien

ce.

Wh

en a

dis

aste

r st

rik

es, c

om

mu

nic

atio

n f

acil

itie

s ca

n b

e to

-ta

lly

des

tro

yed

. A c

riti

cal e

arly

req

uir

emen

t is

, th

eref

ore

, th

e se

ttin

g u

p e

mer

gen

cy c

om

mu

nic

atio

n s

yste

ms

to s

up

po

rt

the

resc

ue

team

s, a

nd

for

dis

sem

inat

ing

info

rmat

ion

an

d in

-st

ruct

ion

s to

th

e su

rviv

ors

. O

ne

of

the

'rs

t ac

tio

ns

is t

o s

et

up

a d

isas

ter

man

agem

ent

cell

fo

r co

ord

inat

ion

. F

or

maj

or

risk

s th

e ce

lls

incl

ud

e n

atio

nal

min

istr

ies,

civ

il d

efen

ce, r

egi-

on

al a

nd

lo

cal

adm

inis

trat

ion

s, n

on

-go

vern

men

tal

org

ani-

zati

on

s in

volv

ed i

n d

isas

ter

man

agem

ent,

etc

.

Acc

ess

to o

bse

rvat

ion

al d

ata

are

faci

lita

ted

by

the

inte

rnat

i-o

nal

ch

arte

r “S

pac

e an

d M

ajo

r D

isas

ters

” si

gned

by

vari

ou

s sp

ace

agen

cies

. Wh

en a

vail

able

, op

tica

l or/

and

rad

io i

mag

es

fro

m r

adio

sen

sin

g sa

tell

ites

are

th

e b

est

sou

rces

of

info

rma-

tio

n.

$ey

can

be

qu

ick

ly a

cqu

ired

an

d c

ove

r la

rge

geo

gra-

ph

ical

reg

ion

s. P

ho

to-i

nte

rpre

ters

use

th

em t

o p

rovi

de

map

s su

mm

ariz

ing

the

rele

van

t in

form

atio

n.

Dat

a h

and

lin

g se

r-vi

ces

can

typ

ical

ly p

rovi

de

reli

able

in

form

atio

n i

n 8

ho

urs

.

Fig

ure

2: D

isas

ter

Info

rmat

ion

Cel

l

Ris

k p

reve

nti

on

an

d c

risi

s m

anag

emen

t m

ay in

clu

de

the

fol-

low

ing

wh

ich

are

all

dep

end

ent

on

rad

io s

cien

ce:

a h

igh

cap

acit

y co

mm

un

icat

ion

su

b-s

yste

m,

a G

eogr

aph

ic I

nfo

rmat

ion

Sys

tem

(G

IS)

pro

vid

ing

spa-

tio

-tem

po

ral l

oca

tio

ns

bas

ed o

n G

PS

dat

a an

d im

ager

y,

a ra

dio

an

d o

pti

cal d

ata

acq

uis

itio

n s

ub

-sys

tem

,

a su

b-s

yste

m f

or

syn

thes

is o

f th

e in

form

atio

n.

Fig

ure

3: E

xam

ple

of i

mag

e p

roce

ssin

g u

sed

by

Ris

k M

anag

er

Rem

ote

sen

sin

g b

y ai

r-b

orn

e o

r sp

ace-

bo

rne

sen

sors

can

be

use

d t

o d

etec

t, i

den

tify

an

d m

on

ito

r th

e im

pac

t an

d e

&ec

ts

of

nat

ura

l d

isas

ters

. R

adio

im

ager

y p

rovi

ded

by

sate

llit

e-

bas

ed s

ynth

etic

ap

ertu

re r

adar

s (S

AR

) sh

ou

ld i

dea

lly

be

avai

lab

le 2

4/7,

an

d s

ho

uld

op

erat

e at

fre

qu

enci

es c

apab

le o

f

dea

lin

g w

ith

th

e p

reva

ilin

g an

d a

tmo

sph

eric

co

nd

itio

ns.

SAR

ob

serv

atio

ns

of

Ear

th h

ave

a w

ide

ran

ge o

f p

ract

ical

app

lica

tio

ns

(eg

det

ecti

on

of

%o

od

ed a

reas

, d

rou

ght

mo

-

nit

ori

ng,

dam

age

det

ecti

on

in

an

are

a a&

ecte

d b

y a

maj

or

dis

aste

r, s

oci

al a

nd

eco

no

mic

vu

lner

abil

ity

anal

ysis

, sea

rch

-

and

-res

cue

op

erat

ion

s).

Fu

sio

n o

f SA

R i

mag

es a

nd

op

tica

l

imag

es b

rin

g to

geth

er c

om

ple

men

tary

in

form

atio

n.

Page 125: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

125

AN

NE

X

7F

igu

re 4

: SA

R I

mag

e (X

ban

d 8

-12

GH

z)

Inte

rfer

om

etri

c sy

nth

etic

ap

ertu

re r

adar

(In

SAR

) is

a r

adar

te

chn

iqu

e u

sed

in

geo

des

y an

d r

emo

te s

ensi

ng.

It

calc

ula

tes

the

inte

rfer

ence

pat

tern

cau

sed

by

the

di&

eren

ce i

n p

has

e b

etw

een

tw

o i

mag

es a

cqu

ired

by

a sp

aceb

orn

e sy

nth

etic

ap

ertu

re r

adar

at

two

dis

tin

ct t

imes

. $e

resu

ltin

g in

terf

ero

-gr

am is

a c

on

tou

r m

ap o

f th

e ch

ange

in d

ista

nce

bet

wee

n t

he

gro

un

d a

nd

th

e ra

dar

inst

rum

ent.

It

may

be

use

d t

o g

ener

ate

map

s o

f su

rfac

e d

efo

rmat

ion

.

$e

SAR

in

terf

ero

met

ry d

i&er

enti

al (

DIn

SAR

) te

chn

iqu

e re

lies

on

th

e p

roce

ssin

g o

f th

e sa

me

po

rtio

n o

f tw

o S

AR

im

ages

of

Ear

th’s

su

rfac

e. I

n t

he

rep

eat

pas

s in

terf

ero

met

ry

met

ho

d, t

he

det

ecti

on

an

d t

he

qu

anti

'ca

tio

n o

f th

e gr

ou

nd

dis

pla

cem

ent

that

occ

urr

ed b

etw

een

th

e tw

o i

s m

easu

red

.

Fig

ure

5: F

rin

ges

& T

erra

in m

od

el o

f th

e E

tna

Vo

lcan

o S

ici-

lia,

Ita

ly, o

bta

ined

by

SAR

In

terf

ero

met

ry

Gro

un

d-p

enet

rati

ng

rad

ar

(GP

R)

is

a ge

op

hys

ical

m

e-

tho

d t

hat

use

s ra

dar

pu

lses

to

im

age

the

sub

surf

ace.

$is

no

n d

estr

uct

ive

met

ho

d u

ses

elec

tro

mag

net

ic r

adia

tio

n i

n

the

mic

row

ave

ban

d (

UH

F/V

HF

fre

qu

enci

es)

of

the

rad

io

spec

tru

m, a

nd

det

ects

th

e re

%ec

ted

sig

nal

s fr

om

su

bsu

rfac

e

stru

ctu

res.

GP

R c

an b

e u

sed

in

a v

arie

ty o

f m

edia

, in

clu

din

g ro

ck, s

oil

,

ice,

fre

sh w

ater

, pav

emen

ts a

nd

str

uct

ure

s. I

t ca

n d

etec

t o

b-

ject

s, c

han

ges

in m

ater

ial,

and

vo

ids

and

cra

cks.

Stu

die

s ar

e

in p

rogr

ess

to a

sses

s th

e ab

ilit

y o

f G

PR

to

det

ect

dam

ages

insi

de

of

bu

ild

ings

, b

rid

ges,

co

ncr

ete

road

s….

and

Hu

ma-

nit

aria

n D

emin

ing.

Spac

e W

eath

er c

an b

e d

e'n

ed a

s co

nd

itio

ns

on

th

e Su

n a

nd

in s

ola

r w

ind

, mag

net

osp

her

e, io

no

sph

ere

and

th

erm

osp

her

e

that

can

in

%u

ence

th

e p

erfo

rman

ce a

nd

rel

iab

ilit

y o

f sp

ace-

bo

rne

and

gro

un

d-b

ased

tec

hn

olo

gica

l sy

stem

s. S

ola

r el

ec-

tro

mag

net

ic a

nd

par

ticl

e ra

dia

tio

n c

ause

:

com

mu

nic

atio

ns,

nav

igat

ion

an

d r

emo

te s

ensi

ng

sate

lli-

te a

no

mal

ies

and

agi

ng

of

sola

r ce

lls.

per

turb

atio

ns

to t

he

ion

osp

her

e w

hic

h i

n t

urn

cau

se a

vari

ety

of

e&ec

ts in

clu

din

g: lo

ss o

f lo

ck in

GN

SS n

avig

a-

tio

n s

yste

ms,

deg

rad

atio

n i

n s

pac

e-b

orn

e ge

o-l

oca

tio

n,

sate

llit

e co

mm

un

icat

ion

s s

yste

ms

op

erat

ing

bel

ow

2

GH

z an

d d

egra

dat

ion

s o

f H

F c

om

mu

nic

atio

ns.

no

ise

and

in

terf

eren

ce

on

sa

tell

ite

gro

un

d

stat

ion

s,

mai

nly

at

K b

and

(~

20 G

Hz)

an

d C

ban

d (

~4

GH

z ).

Dis

turb

ance

s o

f th

e io

no

sph

ere,

cau

sed

by

X-r

ay e

mis

sio

ns

fro

m t

he

Sun

, pro

du

ce H

F r

adio

bla

cko

uts

(h

ttp

://w

ww

.sp

c.

no

aa.g

ov/

NO

AA

scal

es).

Mo

der

ate

spac

e w

eath

er c

ause

s, H

F

rad

io b

lack

ou

ts o

n t

he

sun

lit

sid

e o

f th

e ea

rth

fo

r te

ns

of

mi-

nu

tes

on

~30

0 d

ays

per

so

lar

cycl

e. E

xtre

me

even

ts o

ccu

r le

ss

than

on

e d

ay p

er s

ola

r cy

cle,

bu

t p

rod

uce

HF

rad

io b

lack

ou

ts

on

th

e en

tire

su

nli

t si

de

of

the

Ear

th f

or

a n

um

ber

of

ho

urs

.

Ion

izat

ion

den

sity

irr

egu

lari

ties

in

th

e au

rora

l re

gio

ns

and

the

equ

ato

rial

reg

ion

s ca

use

fas

t ra

nd

om

%u

ctu

atio

ns

of

ph

ase

and

am

pli

tud

e o

n r

adio

sig

nal

s u

p t

o a

few

GH

z an

d

deg

rad

e an

d d

isru

pt

sate

llit

e-b

ased

nav

igat

ion

an

d c

om

mu

-

nic

atio

n s

yste

ms.

Wh

en c

ross

ing

a m

agn

eto

-pla

sma,

th

e p

ola

riza

tio

n o

f th

e

sign

al is

ro

tate

d (

Far

aday

ro

tati

on

). $

is c

an a

&ec

t sy

nth

etic

aper

ture

imag

es, a

t L

ban

d (

1.5

GH

z) a

nd

low

er f

req

uen

cies

.

In c

on

clu

sio

n,

on

tim

e p

erio

ds

run

nin

g fr

om

a f

ew m

inu

-

tes

to s

ever

al d

ays,

sp

ace

bas

ed n

avig

atio

n,

rem

ote

sen

sin

g

and

co

mm

un

icat

ion

s sy

stem

s ca

n a

ll b

e a&

ecte

d b

y sp

ace

wea

ther

. $is

may

ren

der

mo

re d

i#cu

lt r

escu

e an

d r

eco

very

e&o

rts

a>er

dis

aste

rs s

uch

as

eart

hq

uak

e an

d %

oo

d.

Fig

ure

6: R

adio

sys

tem

s a&

ecte

d b

y Sp

ace

wea

ther

eve

nts

Not

e: O

n t

he

1 Se

ptem

ber

1859

Ric

har

d C

arri

ngt

on o

bser

ved

a w

hit

e li

ght

sola

r '

are

that

wa

s fo

llow

ed b

y th

e la

rges

t su

per

sola

r-st

orm

rec

ord

ed t

o d

ate.

If

an e

ven

t of

th

is s

ize

occu

rred

tod

ay i

t w

ould

cer

tain

ly c

ause

exp

ensi

ve d

amag

e to

ou

r te

ch-

nol

ogic

al i

nfr

ast

ruct

ure

in

clu

din

g ou

r po

wer

net

wor

ks.

ww

w.u

rsi.

org

Page 126: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

126A

NN

EX 7

Un

ited

Nati

on

s

An

ne

Kn

auer

$e

ove

rall

pu

rpo

se o

f th

e U

nit

ed N

atio

ns

O#

ce f

or

Ou

ter

Spac

e A

&ai

rs (

OO

SA)

is t

he

pro

mo

tio

n o

f in

tern

atio

nal

co

-

op

erat

ion

in

th

e p

eace

ful

use

s o

f o

ute

r sp

ace

for

eco

no

mic

,

soci

al a

nd

sci

enti

'c

dev

elo

pm

ent,

in p

arti

cula

r fo

r th

e b

ene-

't

of

dev

elo

pin

g co

un

trie

s.

$e

Un

ited

Nat

ion

s O

#ce

fo

r O

ute

r Sp

ace

A&

airs

im

ple

-

men

ts t

he

dec

isio

ns

of

the

Gen

eral

Ass

emb

ly a

nd

of

the

Co

mm

itte

e o

n t

he

Pea

cefu

l U

ses

of

Ou

ter

Spac

e. $

e o

#ce

has

th

e d

ual

ob

ject

ive

of

sup

po

rtin

g th

e in

terg

ove

rnm

enta

l

dis

cuss

ion

s in

th

e C

om

mit

tee

and

its

Sci

enti

'c

and

Tec

hn

i-

cal S

ub

com

mit

tee

and

Leg

al S

ub

com

mit

tee,

an

d o

f as

sist

ing

dev

elo

pin

g co

un

trie

s in

usi

ng

spac

e te

chn

olo

gy

for

dev

elo

p-

men

t. I

n a

dd

itio

n,

it f

oll

ow

s le

gal,

scie

nti

'c

and

tec

hn

ical

dev

elo

pm

ents

rel

atin

g to

sp

ace

acti

viti

es,

tech

no

log

y an

d

app

lica

tio

ns

in o

rder

to

pro

vid

e te

chn

ical

in

form

atio

n a

nd

advi

ce t

o M

emb

er S

tate

s, i

nte

rnat

ion

al o

rgan

izat

ion

s an

d

oth

er U

nit

ed N

atio

ns

o#

ces.

$e

O#

ce h

as t

wo

sec

tio

ns:

th

e Sp

ace

Ap

pli

cati

on

s S

ecti

on

(SA

S),

wh

ich

org

aniz

es a

nd

car

ries

ou

t th

e U

nit

ed N

atio

ns

Pro

gram

me

on

Sp

ace

Ap

pli

cati

on

s, a

nd

th

e C

om

mit

tee,

Po

licy

an

d L

egal

A&

airs

Sec

tio

n (

CP

LA

), w

hic

h p

rovi

des

sub

stan

tive

sec

reta

riat

ser

vice

s to

th

e C

om

mit

tee,

its

tw

o

sub

com

mit

tees

an

d i

ts w

ork

ing

gro

up

s. C

PL

A a

lso

pre

pa-

res

and

dis

trib

ute

s re

po

rts

and

pu

bli

cati

on

s o

n in

tern

atio

nal

spac

e ac

tivi

ties

an

d o

n i

nte

rnat

ion

al s

pac

e la

w.

$e

O#

ce h

as b

een

man

dat

ed t

o:

Ser

vice

th

e in

terg

ove

rnm

enta

l pro

cess

;

Dis

char

ge t

he

resp

on

sib

ilit

ies

of

the

Sec

reta

ry-G

ener

al

un

der

th

e U

nit

ed N

atio

ns

Tre

atie

s an

d P

rin

cip

les

on

Ou

ter

Spac

e;

Imp

lem

ent

the

Un

ited

Nat

ion

s P

rogr

amm

e o

n S

pac

e

Ap

pli

cati

on

s;

Co

ord

inat

e sp

ace-

rela

ted

act

ivit

ies

wit

hin

th

e U

nit

ed

Nat

ion

s sy

stem

; an

d

Imp

lem

ent

the

Un

ited

N

atio

ns

Pla

tfo

rm

for

Spac

e-

bas

ed

Info

rmat

ion

fo

r D

isas

ter

Man

agem

ent

and

Em

erge

ncy

Res

po

nse

(U

N-S

PID

ER

).

Fig

ure

2: C

om

mit

tee

on

th

e P

eace

ful U

ses

of

Ou

ter

Spac

e in

ses

sio

n

Fig

ure

1: O

rgan

izat

ion

al c

har

t o

f O

OSA

ww

w.o

osa

.un

vie

nn

a.o

rg

Page 127: (VALID) · 2015. 2. 12. · I am convinced that the VALID project results are helpful in supporting programmatic as well as operational decisions and I am condent this nal report

127

AN

NE

X

7U

N-S

PID

ER

was

est

abli

shed

th

rou

gh t

he

Gen

eral

Ass

emb

ly

in 2

006

and

aim

s at

en

suri

ng

that

all

co

un

trie

s an

d i

nte

rna-

tio

nal

an

d r

egio

nal

org

aniz

atio

ns

hav

e ac

cess

to

an

d d

evel

op

the

cap

acit

y to

use

all

typ

es o

f sp

ace-

bas

ed i

nfo

rmat

ion

to

sup

po

rt t

he

full

dis

aste

r m

anag

emen

t cy

cle.

UN

-SP

IDE

R’s

wo

rk f

ocu

ses

on

kn

ow

led

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2

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AN

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