var reportcoversheet jan2017 v05 - virginia realtors · 2019. 12. 13. · all of virginia 35,317...

VirginiaHOME SALESREPORTQ2 2017

Published by the Virginia REALTORS®, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.

2017 Second Quarter

Published by the Virginia REALTORS®

Data recorded July 16, 2017 1

The Virginia REALTORS® association publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide

our members, the media, and real estate‐related industries with current data. The report data

comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia REALTORS®. All data may be used

with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia REALTORS®.

The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent

cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. It should be noted that these regions do not

necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 28 local REALTOR® associations in

Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more

counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS®

(NVAR). Please take this into consideration when referencing regions.

Central Albemarle, Amelia, Buckingham, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Culpeper, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Fluvanna, Goochland, Greene, Hanover, Henrico, King & Queen, King William, Louisa, Madison, Nelson, New Kent, Orange, Powhatan, Prince George, Rappahannock, Sussex; Charlottesville, Colonial Heights, Hopewell, Petersburg, Richmond

Eastern Accomack, Essex, King George, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northampton, Northumberland, Richmond, Westmoreland

Hampton Roads Gloucester, Isle of Wight, James City, Mathews, Surry, York; Chesapeake, Franklin, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg

Northern Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren; Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, Manassas Park

Southside Brunswick, Charlotte, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Nottoway, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Prince Edward, Southampton; Danville, Emporia, Martinsville

Southwest Bland, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Floyd, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe; Bristol, Galax, Norton

Valley Alleghany, Augusta, Bath, Frederick, Highland, Page, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Shenandoah; Buena Vista, Covington, Harrisonburg, Lexington, Staunton, Waynesboro, Winchester

West Central Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Craig, Franklin, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke; Lynchburg, Radford, Roanoke, Salem

2017 Second Quarter



Second Quarter Summary

The second quarter of 2017 illustrates that Virginia’s residential real estate market continues

to gain strength. Second quarter metrics outpaced each prior year benchmark.

Quarterly transactions rose by 5.3 percent year‐over‐year (from 35,317 to 37,201). Likewise,

second quarter volume jumped by 9.2 percent year‐over‐year, from $11.986 billion in 2016 to

$13.091 billion in 2017. The boost in volume was the result of a significant rise in pace, or the

number of sales, amplified by rising prices. Statewide, median price for the second quarter

rose by 3.2 percent from 2016 to 2017, from $279,000 to $288,000.

Annualized sales, the sum of all sales for the preceding twelve months, offered a clear

illustration of market strength, rising for the eleventh consecutive quarter to 120,622 sales.

The average quarterly increase in annualized sales over the last eleven quarters has been 1.9

percent.

Year‐over‐year, second quarter home sales increased in all price bands except the lowest ($0

to $200,000), where limited inventory typically restricts market activity. The increases were

significant in every category over the $400K range. Luxury sales, above $750,000, increased

by the greatest percentages.

Year‐over‐year, sales increased in every region of the state in the second quarter, with the

exception of the Southside region where a smaller number of transactions affects the

comparison of performance over time. The dense Central and Northern regions exhibited

strong gains over their prior year performance.

Average fixed mortgage interest rates for 30‐year and 15‐year loans fell slightly from the first

quarter to the second (to 3.99 percent and 3.24 percent, respectively). Despite the

anticipation of rate increases, the cost of financing remains historically low and continues to

ease market entry for eager buyers.

2017 Second Quarter



Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2014 5,427 5,705 7,150 8,507 9,701 10,633 10,176 9,486 8,360 8,448 6,662 8,306

2015 5,807 6,087 8,521 9,171 10,370 12,684 11,824 10,205 9,567 8,872 7,020 8,745

2016 5,946 6,577 8,690 10,209 11,786 13,300 11,536 11,779 10,143 9,026 8,636 9,118

2017 6,499 6,717 9,945 10,567

6

12,604

6

14,030

Continuing a growth trend since the beginning of the year, each month of the second quarter in

2017 had higher sales than in the corresponding months of the previous year. Pace typically rises

each month from the beginning of the calendar year through June, as summertime sales reach a

pinnacle. Year‐0ver‐year, June sales (14,030) rose by 5.4 percent (from 13,300). June 2017 sales rose

11.3 percent from May’s (12,604) and were 32.8 percent higher than April’s (10,567).

6,499 6,717

9,945 10,567

12,604

14,030

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

January March May July September November

mber of Single Fam

ily, Townhome, and Condo

Sales

Month‐to‐Month Sales TrendsSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

2014 2015 2016 2017

2017 Second Quarter



Sales in the second quarter of 2017 grew by 5.3 percent year‐over‐year, from a total of 35,317 in 2016

Q2 to 37,201. Relative to the second quarter of 2015, sales for the second quarter of 2017 rose 15.4

percent (from 32,226 transactions). Further indicated through the annualized sales trend (page 5),

year‐over‐year improvements in quarterly performance indicate sustained market expansion.

Note: the horizontal bar in the graph indicates the variance in second quarter sales from 2014

through 2017, beginning with 28,842 sales in 2014 and rising eventually to 37,201 sales in 2017, with

graduated increases for each year in between. 2017 second quarter sales were 29 percent higher

than their 2014 benchmark.

28,842 28,023

23,416

20,415

32,226 31,615

24,690

21,250

35,31733,480

26,780

23,161

37,201

‐

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Number of Single Family, Townhome, Condo Sales

Quarterly Residential SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

5.3 %

2017 Second Quarter



Each data point on the graph above represents twelve months of home sales data ending in the

quarter shown. For example, the 2017 Q2 figure (120,622 sales) includes home sales from July 2016

through June 2017, and the 2017 Q1 figure (118,738 sales) includes home sales from April 2016

through March 2017. This rolling sum of home sales reduces seasonal effect, providing a clearer

indicator of long‐term trends in Virginia’s housing market. The trend of continued improvement in

this measure illustrates how Virginia’s residential real estate market has grown consistently over

the long‐term. Annualized sales ending in the second quarter of 2017 grew 1.6 percent from the

previous quarter. Year‐over‐year, the measure grew 6.9 percent.

Indicating that growth has been sustained regardless of seasonal market fluctuations, annualized

sales have grown for eleven consecutive quarters. The average growth per quarter over that time

period has been 1.9 percent. If the trend continues, annualized sales ending in the third quarter of

2017 could approach 123,000 sales.

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Number of Single Family, Townhome, and Condo Sales

Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

6.9 %

2017 Second Quarter



Region 2016 Q2 2017 Q2

Central 7,493 8,104 8.2%

Eastern 622 652 4.8%

Hampton Roads 7,656 7,906 3.3%

Northern 13,904 14,614 5.1%

Southside 645 637 ‐1.2%

Southwest 508 560 10.2%

Valley 1,754 1,819 3.2%

West Central 2,713 2,903 7.0%

Other 22 15 ‐31.8%

ALL of Virginia 35,317 37,201 5.3%

The chart above compares 2016 second quarter sales to 2017 second quarter sales, by region. With

the exception of the Southside region, all regions experienced growth from the same period last

year, for a statewide aggregate jump of 5.3 percent. The greatest year‐over‐year percentage

increases occurred in the Central and Southwest regions. Performance metrics are relative to the

absolute number of sales, so less dense regions with increasing sales may show a relatively higher

growth percentage.

Regional Changes in Sales 2016 Q2 vs. 2017 Q2 Units

+10.2 %

+8.2 %

+7.0 %

+5.1 %

‐1.2 %+3.3 %

+4.8 %+3.2 %

2017 Second Quarter



In comparison to the second quarter of 2016, aggregate median price rose by 3.2 percent for the

second quarter of 2017 (from $279,000 to $288,000). Relative to the second quarter of 2015, median

price has risen by 4.7 percent (from $274,950). Price rises have been spurred by intense buyer

urgency and consistently limited supply. Typical of industry seasonality, median price rose steeply

relative to the first quarter of 2017 by 10.8 percent (from $260,000). A rise in price from the first

quarter to the second is characteristic as market activity peaks in summer months.

$235,000

$267,000

$260,000

$251,000

$247,500

$274,950

$265,000

$255,500

$249,900

$279,000

$272,000

$265,000

$260,000

$288,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Med

ian Sales Price

Median Residential Sales PriceSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

4.7 %

3.2 %

2017 Second Quarter



This graph represents the dollar value of residential real estate sold (in billions) during each quarter

for the last three years. The volume of real estate sold in the second quarter of 2017 rose by 9.2

percent year‐0ver‐year, from $11.986 billion to $13.091 billion. Volume is amplified year‐over‐year by

increases in both price and the number of transactions. Year‐t0‐date volume totals $20.483 billion,

an increase of 10.7 percent from the cumulative volume in the first six months of 2016 ($18.499

billion).

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Billions of Dollars of Residen

tial Sales

Quarterly Residential Sales Volume ($B)Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

$5.410 $6.247 $6.513 $7.392

$9.561 $10.790 $11.986 $13.091

$9.058$10.238

$11.028$7.405

$7.855$8.707

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

2014 2015 2016 2017

Billions

Annual Sales Volume by QuarterSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

9.2 %

2017 Second Quarter



Year‐0ver‐year home sales increased in every price category except the lowest ranges ($0 to $100K

and $100K to $200K). Restricted inventory typically limits the number of sales possible in the low

bands. Growth was particularly strong in the highest ranges, with pace increasing especially in

bands $400K and higher.

2,556

8,009

9,047

6,133

4,197

4,848

1,445

966

2,701

8,026

8,639

5,985

3,733

4,339

1,221

673

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000

0 ‐ $100K

$100K ‐ $200K

$200K ‐ $300K

$300K ‐ $400K

$400K ‐ $500K

$500K ‐ $750K

$750 K ‐ $1M

$1 M+

Price Ran

ge

Price Distribution of Residential Home SalesSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

2016‐Q2 2017‐Q2

6.9%

21.5%

24.3%16.5%

11.3%

13.0%

3.9%2.6%

Market Share for Price Bands

0 ‐ $100K

$100K ‐ $200K

$200K ‐ $300K

$300K ‐ $400K

$400K ‐ $500K

$500K ‐ $750K

$750 K ‐ $1M

$1 M+

‐5.4 %

4.7 %

2.5 %

12.4 %

11.7%

Because sales in ranges

below $750,000 represent

the vast majority of

transactions in Virginia,

they are the clearest

indicator of market

performance. The highest

number of transactions by

price band in 2017 Q2

happened in the $200k to

$300k range.

18.3 %

43.5 %

‐0.2 %

2017 Second Quarter



The average number of days on the market in the second quarter of 2017 decreased from the same

quarter last year by 14.3 percent from 63 days to 54. Declining days on the market reflect high

demand and sustained buyer urgency. Typical of industry seasonality, average time on the market

decreased markedly between the first and second quarters as activity intensifies through the June

peak.

84

6873

8189

68 68

7883

63 6169

75

54

0

30

60

90

120

2014Q1

2014Q2

2014Q3

2014Q4

2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

Average Days on the Market

Average Days on the MarketSingle Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos

‐14.3 %

2017 Second Quarter



The changes in the pace of Virginia home sales in the second quarter have tracked the changes in

the pace of sales in the United States as a whole.

Virginia median price changes were similar to the changes in the median of existing‐home sales

prices nationally for the second quarter of 2017. Both Virginia and the United States as a whole

showed year‐0ver‐year increases in median price. National median price and pace are scheduled for

release by the National Association of REALTORS® on July 24.

*Virginia sales reported in the graphs above include all single family, townhouse, and condo sales. U.S. sales are existing single family sales as

reported by the National Association of REALTORS®. Existing sales do not include newly constructed homes sold for the first time.

13,30014,030

582,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Monthly Residential SalesVIRGINIA (All MLS‐Reported Home Sales*) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*)

$247,600

$290,000 $298,000

$130,000

$150,000

$170,000

$190,000

$210,000

$230,000

$250,000

$270,000

$290,000

$310,000

May‐16 Jun‐16 Jul‐16 Aug‐16 Sep‐16 Oct‐16 Nov‐16 Dec‐16 Jan‐17 Feb‐17 Mar‐17 Apr‐17 May‐17 Jun‐17

Monthly Residential Median Sales PriceUNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales*) VIRGINIA (All MLS‐Reported Home Sales*)

2017 Second Quarter



The Virginia unemployment rate fell in the second quarter to seasonally‐adjusted 3.8 percent.

Virginia unemployment continues to track below the national average (4.4 percent). Low

unemployment is correlated with bolstered consumer confidence.

5.1%4.9% 4.8%

4.5%

4.2% 4.2% 4.1%

3.7%3.9%

4.1%3.9% 3.8%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

2014‐Q3 2014‐Q4 2015‐Q1 2015‐Q2 2015‐Q3 2015‐Q4 2016‐Q1 2016‐Q2 2016‐Q3 2016‐Q4 2017‐Q1 2017‐Q2

Virginia Unemployment RateSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2017 Second Quarter



Average 30‐year and 15‐year fixed mortgage interest rates fell slightly in the second quarter of 2017

to 3.99 percent and 3.24 percent, respectively. Eager buyers are poised to enter the market on still

advantageous interest rates.

4.23%4.14%

3.97%

3.72%

3.83%

3.95%3.90%

3.74%

3.59%

3.45%

3.81%

4.17%

3.99%

3.00%

3.40%

3.80%

4.20%

4.60%

2014‐Q2 2014‐Q4 2015‐Q2 2015‐Q4 2016‐Q2 2016‐Q4 2017‐Q2

Average 30‐Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac

3.32%3.27%

3.18%

3.01%3.06%

3.15% 3.13%

3.03%

2.85%

2.75%

3.07%

3.39%

3.24%

2.20%

2.40%

2.60%

2.80%

3.00%

3.20%

3.40%

3.60%

2014‐Q2 2014‐Q4 2015‐Q2 2015‐Q4 2016 Q2 2016‐Q4 2017‐Q2

Average 15‐Year Mortgage Interest RatesSource: FreddieMac

2017 Second Quarter



The Virginia REALTORS® association is the largest professional trade association in Virginia,

representing approximately 33,000 REALTORS® engaged in the residential and commercial real

estate business. The Virginia REALTORS® association serves as the advocate for homeownership

and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property

owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

NOTE: The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate

professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS® and subscribes to its strict

code of ethics.

All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to:

Jenny Wortham

Virginia REALTORS®

[email protected]

804‐262‐3755

The numbers reported here are preliminary and based on current entries into multiple listing

services. Over time, data may be adjusted slightly to reflect increased reporting. Information is

sourced from multiple listing services across Virginia and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.

var reportcoversheet jan2017 v05 - virginia realtors · 2019. 12. 13. · all of virginia 35,317...

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