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1www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA & PAGP
V&E and TPH 2014 Infrastructure Summit
Crude Oil Midstream UpdateHouston, TX September 16, 2014
2www.plainsallamerican.com NYSE: PAA & PAGP
Forward-Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial Measures Disclosure This presentation contains forward-looking statements, including, in
particular, statements about the plans, strategies and prospects of PlainsAll American Pipeline, L.P. (“PAA”) and Plains GP Holdings, L.P.(“PAGP”). These forward-looking statements are based on PAA’s currentassumptions, expectations and projections about future events as of thedate of our most recent guidance furnished on August 6, 2014, unlessotherwise noted.
Although PAA and PAGP believe that the expectations reflected in theseforward-looking statements are reasonable, they can give no assurancethat these expectations will prove to be correct or that synergies or otherbenefits anticipated in the forward-looking statements will be achieved.Important factors, some of which may be beyond PAA’s or PAGP’scontrol, that could cause actual results to differ materially frommanagement’s expectations are disclosed in PAA’s and PAGP’srespective filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
This presentation also contains non-GAAP financial measures relating toPAA. A reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparableGAAP measures is available in the appendix to this presentation. Foradditional detail regarding selected items impacting comparability,please visit the Investor Relations section of PAA’s website atwww.plainsallamerican.com.
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Opening Observations
There are multiple topics worthy of discussion in the midstream crude oil space: Rail, exports, quality issues, basis differentials, impact of new
pipelines, need for new pipelines, etc.
Unlikely to do justice to many of them in 20-30 minutes
Two Perspectives – High & Low Level –Both Important From 30,000 feet, the earth’s surface appears relatively level,
with very manageable challenges
From ground level, relatively small challenges can appear substantial
To successfully develop and execute a business plan, it is important to integrate both perspectives
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Discussion Outline
Brief Introduction To Plains All American Qualifications / Curriculum Vitae For Today’s Topic
Brief, but beware of subliminal messages for PAA
Summary of the Current Industry Environment Discussion of Permian / West Texas & its
Interrelationship with Cushing, Houston & Corpus Christi Illustration of Dual Perspectives
Biggest Infrastructure Issue (ex Gov’t & ROW)
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Plains All American Current ProfileOne Business, Two Investment Vehicles (NYSE: PAA & PAGP)
Total Enterprise Value $49.7 B
PAA Equity Market Cap $21.8 B PAGP et. al. Eq. Mkt Cap $20.0 B Total LT Debt $7.9 B
Current PAA Yield ~4.4%
Current PAGP Yield ~2.4%
PAA Total Assets $21.5 B
PAA S&P / Moody’s Ratings BBB / Baa2
Financial Profile(1)
2014 Adjusted EBITDA (2) $2.18 B
2014 Adj. Net Income (2) $1.35 B
PAA Public Guidance – Mid-point
Pipelines (active miles) 18,150 milesLiquids Storage 120 MMBblsNatural Gas Storage 97 BcfFractionation Facilities(4) 235,000 Bbl/dNatural Gas Processing(5) 8.5 Bcf/dCrude & NGL Rail Facilities 24Crude & NGL Railcars 7,400Truck Fleet 1,700 Trailers
840 TrucksBarge Fleet 130 Barges
60 Tugs
Crude & NGL Volumes: ~4.0 MMBbl/d
PAA Assets(3)
(1) As applicable, based on balance sheet data as of 06/30/14 and 09/02/14 closing unit price. PAGP equity market cap includes AAP Management units.(2) Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Net Income Attributable to PAA, which has been abbreviated as “Adj. Net Income,” are the mid-point of PAA’s public guidance furnished via form 8-K on 08/06/14 and exclude selected items impacting comparability.
(3) Assets as of 12/31/13. All amounts are approximate.(4) Amount represents gross capacity. (5) Amount represents net capacity. Natural gas processing capacity also includes approximately 2.5 Bcf per day for a long-term liquid supply contract.
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<--------------PAA’s areas of involvement reflected in Yellow--------->
PAA’s Midstream Crude Oil Activities Extend Over the Entire Value Chain – From Wellhead to Refinery Inlet
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PAA’s Interconnected Pipelines, Rail Assets, Trucks, & Barges Combined With Inland and Coastal Terminals = Max Flexibility
PAA’s Comprehensive System provides: First mile, intermediate & last mile
access Access to multiple markets via
multiple transportation modes Processing, segregation, import and
export access Ability to address periodic physical
bottlenecks and market disruptions
PermianMid‐
ContinentCanada Rockies Williston
West Coast
Gulf Coast
Eagle Ford
East Coast
Crude OilMultiple Pipeline Connections ‐
Storage Trucks ‐
Rail ‐ Marine Access N/A N/A ‐ N/A N/A
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PAA Assets & Business Model Benefit From Volatility: Solid Performance In a Variety of Markets and Supply and Demand Scenarios
$0
$300
$600
$900
$1,200
$1,500
$1,800
$2,100
$2,400
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014(G)
Adju
sted
EB
ITD
A ($
MM
)
PAA Adjusted EBITDA :Actual Performance vs. Guidance(1)
Met or Exceeded Guidance for over 12 Years (50 Consecutive Qtrs)
(1)Crude oil market structure chart does not include 09/22/08 data point on which the backwardated spread widened to over $11/barrel. (G) Midpoint of guidance furnished via form 8-K on August 6, 2014. (T) Targeted distribution for 2014.
BOY Annual Guidance
Outperformance
$0
$300
$600
$900
$1,200
$1,500
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014(T)
Dis
trib
utio
ns P
aid
($M
M)
Total Distribution GrowthIncreased Distribution in 39 out of 41 Qtrs
(20 Consecutive Qtrs)PAA LP
PAA GP
U.S. Products Imports/Exports
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N.A. Crude Production Outlook & Impact on Infrastructure
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30 Second Elevator Speech
U.S. & Canada crude production is on the rise, with significant running room (dependent on commodity prices and capital availability)
Significant midstream infrastructure expansion required to balance the system
The very light, sweet quality of the incremental barrel presents infrastructure challenges – magnified by export restrictions, regulatory issues and lack of clarity
Until the infrastructure is right sized and integrated to create sufficient slack in the system, there will be episodic volatility (may feel like chaos at the time) Therein lies both opportunity and reason for caution
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-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018YE
North American Crude Oil Production Forecast by Region – Dominated by the “Big 6” and Western Canada
(1) Regions included in Other N.A.: Midwest, PADD 1, PADD V and Eastern CanadaSource: PAA and 3rd party estimates including Bentek & CAPP
YE’1815.5
Methodology Assumes Constructive Oil Prices, Constant Rig / Completion Counts & Well Productivity; Upward Bias in Several
Regions (MMBbls/d)
(1)YE’1311.5
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-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018 YE
Light Medium Sour Heavy
Projected North American Production Increases Weighted Towards Light Crudes
Note: Definition of “Light” crude includes condensate, light sweet, light sour, and medium sweet grades. Source: PAA and 3rd party estimates including Bentek & CAPP
2013 YE 2018 YE GrowthLight 6.3 9.0 2.6 Medium Sour 2.7 2.8 0.1 Heavy 2.5 3.6 1.2
Total NA 11.6 15.4 3.9
YE’13
Light / Sweet
(MMBbls/d)
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Note: Crude amounts shown represent the change in production in these areas from YE2013– YE2018 based on PAA’s estimates as of May 2014. All amounts are approximate. Map only includes PAA’s most significant assets. Some assets shown are not yet in-service.
Mid‐Continent: ~175 MBbls/d (+25%)
Permian Basin: ~590 MBbls/d (+40%)
Eagle Ford: ~690 MBbls/d (+60%)
Rockies: ~285 MBbls/d (+55%)
GOM: ~360 MBbls/d (+15%)
Williston Basin(Bakken)
Mid‐Continent
Eagle Ford
Permian Basin
Gulf of Mexico
Rockies
Western Canada
~3.9 MMBbls/d
( +30%)
Projected North American Crude Oil Production
GrowthYE2013 – YE2018
Western Canada:~1,175 MBbls/d (+30%)
Volume Growth Driving Increased Infrastructure Requirements
Williston Basin (Bakken):~625 MBbls/d (+60%)
Takeaway: Double Digit Volume Growth in All RegionsSubliminal Message: Note PAA’s Significant Presence in Each Area!
-15--15-
Crude Oil Assets/Activities(1)
● Barrels Transported: 1,440 MBbls/d● 1st Purchaser Gathered Barrels: 375 MBbls/d● Pipeline Miles: 3,550 ● Storage Capacity: 8 MMBbls● Truck Injection Stations: ~100
Permian Basin
BoneSpring
(1) Pipeline miles are only those miles associated with PAA’s transportation segment and are as of 12/31/13. Pipeline tariff volumes are average of 4Q13. 1st purchaser gathered barrels are average of December 2013. Other assets/activities are as of 02/27/14.
(2) Industry sources and PAA estimates assuming constant rig count and well productivity.(3) Map only includes most significant PAA assets. Some assets shown are not yet in service.
Spraberry / Wolfberry
9251,410
2,000
2009 YE2013 YE2018
Crude Oil Production (MBbls/d)(2)
+40%
Crude Pipelines > 12”
Crude Pipelines < 12” > 6”
Crude Pipelines < 6”
Crude Pipeline Under Construction
Crude Storage Facility
Future Crude Oil Rail Facility
Legend(3)
Permian Basin: PAA’s Largest Asset FootprintDirect Connectivity to Cushing, Corpus Christi and Indirect Connectivity to Houston/Other Markets
15
Increasing rig count & improving efficiency = significant upward bias
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WTI Mid-Cush DifferentialRapidly Rising Oil Production Exceeds Takeaway Capacity / Required Slack
Since 2009,Production Growth Has Nearly Doubled
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Recent and Planned Large Volume Pipelines Set to Provide Permian Basin Takeaway Capacity
1. Permian Express I: Connects to Basin at Wichita Falls and serves Gulf Coast
2. West Texas Gulf: Connects to Basin/Mesa at Colorado City and serves Gulf Coast and extends to East Texas
3. BridgeTex: Connects to Basin/Mesa/Sunrise at Colorado City to Serve Gulf Coast
4. Longhorn: Connects to PAA at Crane to serve Gulf Coast
5. Cactus: Connects PAA assets from McCamey to Gardendale in South Texas; also serves Gulf Coast
6. Permian Express II: Originates in Garden City connects to Colorado City & Corsicana to serve Gulf Coast
240
MidlandColorado
City
Wichita Falls
CushingPermian
Basin
Jal
Odessa
45
3
1
Hendrick
240
240
2
1
4
5
3
(Capacities in thousands of barrels/day reflected in blue)
(1) PAA owns 87% of Basin Pipeline, and 63% of Mesa pipeline.
Crane
McCamey200
Takeaway projects currently under construction are on track to provide ~700,000 b/d of incremental capacity (BridgeTex, Cactus & Permian Express II).
PAA’s Basin / Mesa / Sunrise Pipelines
Garden City6
2Corsicana
6
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(MMBbls/d)
Source: PAA
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2009 2013 YE 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2018 YE
Refining Demand Exports to Houston Exports to Port Arthur
Exports to Corpus Christi Exports to Cushing / Mid-con Production & Heavy Imports
PL Takeaway & Refining Capacity
Pipe
line
Loc.
Ref
inin
g
Cactus
Permian Express II
Exce
ss P
L Ta
keaw
ay C
apac
ity
BridgeTexLonghorn Expansion
YTD ‘14 Differentials:WTI @ Midland ~($7)WTS @ Midland ~($6)
WTG expansionLonghorn
2009 Pipeline Takeaway Capacity
Upon Completion of Current Projects, Permian Basin Export Capacity Appears Sufficient for Expected Production
Reasonable Potential Production Cases
Higher Volume Cases Could Require More Slack for Efficient Operations
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Majority of incremental takeaway capacity will access the Gulf Coast, particularly Houston market Vast majority of ~700,000 b/d available to GC will be light, sweet
crude – GC currently imports very little light sweet crude GC has no “Cushing Hub” equivalent – thus reluctance to build
inventory or pre-position crude; semi-opaque price discovery Cost of marginal Permian takeaway capacity
ranges from <$1.00/bbl to Cushing to >$3.50/bblto Gulf Coast area (ex Permian area gathering/transport fees)
Permian production rising +/- 20,000 b/d each month
Cushing expecting incremental barrels via local production and incremental pipelines (WC, PXP, etc.)
Result: What happens away from Midland couldbe very important. Rotational displacement; dynamic market prices – especially in the event of operating upsets (Basin PL c/b very important header system)
Cushing
Midland
Corpus Christi
Houston Market
Colorado City
Wichita Falls
Upon Closer Inspection: Potential Permian Market Clearing Issues
Very simplified
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Examples of Ground Level Issues(requiring some level of slack in the system)
Pipelines do not run at nameplate capacity on a 24 / 7 / 365 basis Routine testing, maintenance repair and/or replacement of pumps, valves
and facilities Multiple grades & batching requirements can reduce effective capacity Connecting pipelines & refineries may not be able to receive at full rates E.g. 750,000 b/d name plate at 22/24 hour avg run-time = 690,000 b/d rate Turnaround can take longer
Periodic outages of refineries, pipelines, terminals etc. Routine refinery maintenance (not always executed as planned) Operating upsets, product releases, electrical outages, weather related
issues, etc. An unexpected interruption or extended period of a planned event can
reasonably create the need for up to 300,000 b/d of additional pipeline capacity
Production growth is non-linear – introduction of pad drilling amplifies the issue (forecast implies average of 20+kb/d growth per month)
Marginal excess barrel can put meaningful downward price pressure on a large portion of uncommitted volumes
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Permian Basin Observation
From a high level, existing/pending projects appear sufficient to balance the takeaway requirements
From ground level, there will be kinks to be worked out until there is sufficient slack in the system
The most important factors impacting differentials and the direction the marginal barrel flows will likely be determined by what happens outside of the Midland market (Gulf Coast, Cushing, Rockies, etc.)
Despite excess takeaway capacity for normal operations, there may / will be episodic volatility
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Notable Considerations: U.S. E&Ps spending ~$90 to $100 billion/year alone in crude oriented
resource plays Many smaller but active players outspending cash flow; relying on capital markets to
make up gap N.A. crude & NGL production growth alone is on track to exceed +/- 1.2
mmb/d annual growth in worldwide petroleum demand. Requires: More demand; less Saudi/OPEC oil; zero return to market of production capacity in
geopolitically conflicted countries Absent exports, light sweet prices could fall independent of index prices
Many plays still economical at lower prices; however: Decrease in oil prices = less cash flow = more leverage/outside capital = higher cost
of capital Will E&P boards & shareholders embrace high spending in lower price environment?
Due to high decline rates, low oil prices will likely be short-lived (six months to a year?)
Lower oil prices likely results in consolidation at both E&P and midstream entity levels
Biggest Infrastructure Issue = Lower Oil Prices & Interruption in Production Momentum (ex Gov’t & ROW)