vertical scale and texas projection measure

Vertical Scale and Texas Vertical Scale and Texas Projection MeasureProjection Measure

Dr. Stacy Daugherty – Edvance ResearchDr. Stacy Daugherty – Edvance ResearchLaurie O’Donnell – Dickinson ISDLaurie O’Donnell – Dickinson ISD

Scaling Test PerformanceScaling Test Performance A raw score is often used as an indicator A raw score is often used as an indicator

of a student’s performance on a particular of a student’s performance on a particular test.test.

Example: 41 out of 50 (or 82%)Example: 41 out of 50 (or 82%) Raw scores may have different meaning Raw scores may have different meaning

between two tests if the tests are not of between two tests if the tests are not of equal difficulty.equal difficulty.

Does 41/50 (82%) indicate the same level of Does 41/50 (82%) indicate the same level of performance on an easy test as it does a performance on an easy test as it does a hard test?hard test?

3

Raw Scores: Subtraction Test – 4th Grade Math

Suppose Student A gets 4correct out of the following 6problems:

1. 13 – 2 =

2. 276 – 35 =

3. 45 – 23 =

4. 894 – 94 =

5. 637 – 16 =

6. 3,962 – 2,241 =

Question: If Student A and Student B both get 67% correct (raw score), have they demonstrated the same level of learning?

Suppose Student B gets 4correct out of the following 6problems:

1. 13 – 8 =

2. 276 – 39 =

3. 45 – 7 =

4. 894 – 55 =

5. 637 – 140 =

6. 3,962 – 2,974 =

Scale ScoreScale Score

A scale score is a conversion of the raw score onto A scale score is a conversion of the raw score onto a “scale” that is common to all test forms for the a “scale” that is common to all test forms for the assessment.assessment.

The scale score takes into account the difficulty The scale score takes into account the difficulty level of the specific set of questions.level of the specific set of questions.

36/5036/50 3750 3750 41/50 41/50

Harder Test FormHarder Test Form Easier Test Form Easier Test Form

TAKS Horizontal ScaleTAKS Horizontal Scale

For TAKS, the scale scores were defined For TAKS, the scale scores were defined such that the Met Standard and such that the Met Standard and Commended Performance cuts were Commended Performance cuts were always to same scale values across forms always to same scale values across forms and gradesand grades Met Standard = 2100Met Standard = 2100 Commended = 2400Commended = 2400This is known as a horizontal scaleThis is known as a horizontal scale

Horizontal ScalesHorizontal Scales

Limitations of horizontal scales:Limitations of horizontal scales: Scale scores across test forms can be Scale scores across test forms can be

compared within a grade, but compared within a grade, but notnot across grades across grades for a subject.for a subject.

Standards (Met Standard and Commended) Standards (Met Standard and Commended) cannotcannot be numerically compared across grade be numerically compared across grade levelslevels• Example: 2100 in Grade 5 ≠ 2100 in Grade 6Example: 2100 in Grade 5 ≠ 2100 in Grade 6

It is difficult to evaluate individual student It is difficult to evaluate individual student progress from grade to grade.progress from grade to grade.

Vertical ScaleVertical Scale

A vertical scale scoreA vertical scale score Shows how well a student did on the Shows how well a student did on the

TAKS - calculated from the number of TAKS - calculated from the number of questions a student answered correctlyquestions a student answered correctly

Can be numerically compared across Can be numerically compared across different grades for the same subjectdifferent grades for the same subject

Changes in a student’s vertical scale Changes in a student’s vertical scale scores show academic progress over timescores show academic progress over time

Vertical Scale ScoreVertical Scale Score Potential score range from approximately 0 Potential score range from approximately 0

to 1000to 1000 Vertical scale scores in grades 3-6 will be Vertical scale scores in grades 3-6 will be

preceded by an “E” or an “S” to indicate preceded by an “E” or an “S” to indicate languagelanguage

Grade 4 mathematics examplesGrade 4 mathematics examples• E – 562E – 562• S - 585S - 585

Performance Standards on Performance Standards on Vertical ScaleVertical Scale

SB 1031 required a vertical scale for grades 3-8 SB 1031 required a vertical scale for grades 3-8 in reading and mathematicsin reading and mathematics

Performance standards were reviewed and some Performance standards were reviewed and some will be increased between 2009 and 2010 to will be increased between 2009 and 2010 to reflect an appropriate increase in expectations reflect an appropriate increase in expectations across gradesacross grades

Vertical scale scores in 2009 reflect the current Vertical scale scores in 2009 reflect the current cut pointscut points

Vertical scale scores in 2010 will reflect revised Vertical scale scores in 2010 will reflect revised (higher) cut points(higher) cut points

1010

Vertical Scale – Required Adjustments to Vertical Scale – Required Adjustments to Performance StandardsPerformance Standards

Aligning the current horizontal scale scores (2100 for Met Standard and 2400 Aligning the current horizontal scale scores (2100 for Met Standard and 2400 for Commended) to vertical scale scores will require the “cutpoints” for “Met for Commended) to vertical scale scores will require the “cutpoints” for “Met

Standard” and “Commended” on some assessments to be Standard” and “Commended” on some assessments to be increasedincreased

Grade SubjectTAKS English TAKS Spanish

Met Std Commended Met Std Commended

3Reading - - - -

Math - - Increase -

4Reading - - - -

Math - - Increase Increase

5Reading - - - -

Math - Increase - -

6Reading Increase Increase Increase Increase

Math - Increase Increase Increase

7Reading - -

Math - -

8Reading Increase Increase

Math - Increase

Will be applied beginning in Spring 2010

Will be reported beginning in Spring 2009

Grade 8 Reading ExampleGrade 8 Reading Example

Spring 2009Spring 2009 Met Standard = 2100Met Standard = 2100 Met Standard = 670 (previous cut score)Met Standard = 670 (previous cut score)

Spring 2010Spring 2010 Met Standard = 700 (revised cut score)Met Standard = 700 (revised cut score)

Additional 4 questions needed to pass in 2009

Grade 6Grade 6thth Reading Example Reading Example

Spring 2009Spring 2009 Met Standard = 2100Met Standard = 2100 Met Standard = 614 (previous cut score)Met Standard = 614 (previous cut score)

Spring 2010Spring 2010 Met Standard = 644 (revised cut score)Met Standard = 644 (revised cut score)

Additional 3 questions needed to pass in 2009

1313

Vertical Scale CutpointsVertical Scale Cutpoints (English) – (English) – Met StandardMet Standard

1414

Vertical Scale CutpointsVertical Scale Cutpoints (English) - (English) - CommendedCommended

1515

Vertical Scale CutpointsVertical Scale Cutpoints (Spanish) – (Spanish) – Met StandardMet Standard

1616

Vertical Scale CutpointsVertical Scale Cutpoints (Spanish) - (Spanish) - CommendedCommended

1717

Vertical Scale Score – Math ExampleVertical Scale Score – Math Example

Description Grade 52008

Grade 62009

Growth

Student Score 580 650 +70MET STANDARD 603 637 +34Difference -23 +13 +36Passed No Yes ExcellentUses 2009 standards

1818

Exercise 1 – VS Score - ReadingExercise 1 – VS Score - Reading

Description Grade 62008

Grade 72009

Growth

Student Score 601 657MET STANDARD 614 670DifferencePassed?

Hint: Use 2009 standards this year to determine Met Standard.

1919

Spring 2009 Reporting ChangesSpring 2009 Reporting Changes

Same basic reporting information as past yearsSame basic reporting information as past years Old scale with 2100 as Met and 2400 as Commended Old scale with 2100 as Met and 2400 as Commended

PerformancePerformance Same graph on Confidential Student Report (CSR)Same graph on Confidential Student Report (CSR)

New InformationNew Information Vertical scores added near Lexile/Quantile scoresVertical scores added near Lexile/Quantile scores Data fileData file

• Vertical scale scores for 2009Vertical scale scores for 2009• Vertical scale scores for 2008 (converted)Vertical scale scores for 2008 (converted)

Parent brochure explaining new informationParent brochure explaining new information Blackline master informationBlackline master information

2020

Vertical ScaleVertical Scale(Interpreting the Increases in Performance Standard)(Interpreting the Increases in Performance Standard)

Grade Level

Horizontal Scale Score2100 = Met Standard

Vertical Scale Score(Note: In 2010, a Vertical

Scale Score of 670For 8th Grade Reading =

Does NOT Meet Std)

2121

Vertical Scale Parent ScriptVertical Scale Parent ScriptYour child received a vertical scale score for both reading and Your child received a vertical scale score for both reading and math. This score is based on the number of questions your child math. This score is based on the number of questions your child answered correctly.answered correctly.

You can use your child’s vertical scale score to compare You can use your child’s vertical scale score to compare performance from one year to the next in the same subject area. performance from one year to the next in the same subject area. This score will help you keep track of your child’s progress in This score will help you keep track of your child’s progress in reading and math. reading and math.

This is how we track her progress:This is how we track her progress: 1. Compare this year’s score to last year’s to measure growth.1. Compare this year’s score to last year’s to measure growth. 2. Compare her growth to the expected growth.2. Compare her growth to the expected growth. 3. Compare her score to the performance standards. 3. Compare her score to the performance standards.

Additional information is available on the TEA website. Additional information is available on the TEA website. Computers are available on campus for parents at ….Computers are available on campus for parents at ….

Which TAKS Will NOT Have a Which TAKS Will NOT Have a Vertical Scale?Vertical Scale?

WritingWriting ScienceScience Social StudiesSocial Studies High School AssessmentsHigh School Assessments End-of-Course AssessmentsEnd-of-Course Assessments

What About Other What About Other Assessments?Assessments?

TAKS (Accommodated) will be reported on TAKS (Accommodated) will be reported on the same vertical scale as TAKSthe same vertical scale as TAKS

TELPAS will be reported on a vertical TELPAS will be reported on a vertical scale with score range approx. 0 – 1000scale with score range approx. 0 – 1000

TEA is considering a vertical scale for TEA is considering a vertical scale for TAKS-MTAKS-M

There are no plans currently for a vertical There are no plans currently for a vertical scale for TAKS-Alt or EOCscale for TAKS-Alt or EOC

Vertical ScalesVertical ScalesExpected Growth AmountsExpected Growth Amounts

GradeReading Math

Prior Yr Current Yr Expected Gain Prior Yr Current Yr Expected Gain

3rd to 4th 483 554 71 500 554 54

4th to 5th 554 620 66 554 603 49

5th to 6th 620 644 24 603 637 34

6th to 7th 644 670 26 637 670 33

7th to 8th 670 700 30 670 700 30

Texas Projection Measure

(TPM)

Why a Projection Model?

To offer alternative approaches to demonstrating student achievement that meet both state and NCLB goals

How the Projection Model How the Projection Model WorksWorks

TPM estimates whether a student is likely to pass TPM estimates whether a student is likely to pass TAKS assessments at a future grade – 5TAKS assessments at a future grade – 5thth, 7, 7thth (writing only), 8(writing only), 8thth, or 11, or 11thth TAKSTAKS TAKS (Accommodated)TAKS (Accommodated) LATLAT

TPM is based onTPM is based on Student’s current performance on TAKSStudent’s current performance on TAKS TAKS scores of all the students on the campus that TAKS scores of all the students on the campus that

the student attendsthe student attends

TPM Content Areas

TPM will be reported on Mathematics Reading/ELA Science Social Studies Writing

TPM Projection Subjects and GradesTAKS Subject Grades Projected From Grade Projected To

Reading/ELA 3 and 4 55, 6, and 7 8

8, 9, and 10 11Reading (Spanish) 3 and 4 5 (in Eng. and Span.)

5 and 6 8 (English)Mathematics 3 and 4 5

5, 6, and 7 88, 9, and 10 11

Mathematics (Spanish) 3 and 4 5 (in Eng. and Span.)5 and 6 8 (English)

Writing 4 7Writing (Spanish) 4 7 (English)

Science 5 810 11

Science (Spanish) 5 8 (English)Social Studies 8 and 10 11

TPM PredictorsTPM Predictors Uses three predictors for reading and Uses three predictors for reading and

mathematics projections:mathematics projections: Student’s current year scale score in readingStudent’s current year scale score in reading Student’s current year scale score in mathematicsStudent’s current year scale score in mathematics Average campus scale score in the projection subject Average campus scale score in the projection subject

(i.e. reading for reading, math for math)(i.e. reading for reading, math for math) For science, social studies, and writing, add the For science, social studies, and writing, add the

student’s scale score for that subject for a total student’s scale score for that subject for a total of of four predictorsfour predictors

Projection Subject Predictors Used

Reading

1. Student Reading Scale Score (current year)

2. Student Math Scale Score (current year)

3. Mean Campus Scale Score in Reading (prior year)

Math



3. Mean Campus Scale Score in Math (prior year)

Writing

1. Student Writing Scale Score (current year)



4. Mean Campus Scale Score in Writing (prior year)

Science

1. Student Science Scale Score (current year)



4. Mean Campus Scale Score in Science (prior year)

Social Studies

1. Student Social Studies Scale Score (current year)



4. Mean Campus Scale Score in Social Studies (prior year)

Equation Reading Prediction Equation for next high-stakes

grade: (6th grade projecting to 8th grade)ReadingScore_2010 = Constant +

(Rd-Co * Rd SS) +

(Math-Co * Math SS) +

(C-Mean_Co * C-Rd-SS)

Constant = a value determined when the coefficients are developed annually

Rd-Co = coefficient calculated from prior year’s grade 6 reading scores

Rd SS = student’s current year scale score in reading

Math-Co = coefficient calculated from prior year’s grade 6 math scores

Math SS = student’s current year scale score in math

C-Mean_Co = coefficient calculated from prior year’s campus averages in grade 6 reading

C-Rd-SS = prior year’s campus average in grade 6 reading

Equation: 6th Reading Projected to 8th Reading

Projected Reading Score2010 =

Constant +

(Rd-Co * Rd-SS) +

(Math-Co * Math SS) +

(C-Mean-Co * C-Rd-SS)

Equation: 6th Reading Projected to 8th Reading Equation


225.28 +

(0.4770 * Rd-SS) +

(0.2511 * Math SS) +

Texas Projection Measure information and resources: See this site for TAKS Mean Scores for campuses and districts

http://www.tea.state.tx.us/index3.aspx?id=3688&menu_id3=793



225.28 +

(0.4770 *650) +

(0.2511 *550) +

(0.0784 *650)



225.28 +

310.05 +

138.105 +

50.96

724.395

If the projected score is equal to or greater than the Met Standard cut score, then the student IS predicted to meet the standard at the next high-stakes grade level.

Grade 6 to Grade 8 Reading

Note. Grade 8: Met Standard (Reading)=700, Commended Performance (Reading)= 850; Grade 6: Met Standard (Reading)=644, Commended Performance (Reading)= 797, Met Standard (Math)=637, Commended Performance (Math)=783

Student Scores0.4770 0.2511 0.0784

CONSTANT

Reading Vertical

SS

Math Vertical

SS

CampusVert. SSReading PROJECTION

Met TPM?

1 225.28 640 640 640 741 Y2 225.28 775 775 775 850 Y3 225.28 600 600 600 709 Y4 225.28 650 550 650 724 Y5 225.28 650 550 550 717 Y6 225.28 550 550 550 669 N7 225.28 550 640 550 691 N8 225.28 550 550 700 681 N

Equation:5th Science Projected to 8th Science

Projected Science Score2010 = Constant +

(Rd-Co * Rd-SS) +

(Math-Co * Math-SS) +

(Science-Co * Science-SS) +

(C-Mean-Co * C-Science-SS)

The Equation Section is Finished

http://forwardfocus.pearson.com/tpmcalculator/

Work it out yourself or use the TPM calculator link below

Distinguishing Vertical Scales from TPM

Vertical ScalesVertical Scales will reflect individual student

growth from year-to-year• Student’s previous year performance is

significant in fully utilizing Vertical Scales• Primary use: instruction

What is working? What is not working?

Distinguishing Vertical Scales from TPMTexas Projection Measure TPM is a projection of a TPM is a projection of a futurefuture TAKS score based on a student’s TAKS score based on a student’s

currentcurrent TAKS scores TAKS scores• Similar to projecting how tall a 10-year old child will be when Similar to projecting how tall a 10-year old child will be when

he/she reaches 18he/she reaches 18• Uses current student performance dataUses current student performance data

Spring 2009 test resultsSpring 2009 test results Student’s previous year performance is Student’s previous year performance is irrelevantirrelevant to TPM to TPM TPM formula does NOT include an analysis of whether an TPM formula does NOT include an analysis of whether an

individual student made progress from the previous year to individual student made progress from the previous year to the current yearthe current year

• Primary use: Primary use: accountabilityaccountability Students counted as “successful” even though they Did Not Students counted as “successful” even though they Did Not

Meet Standard on the testMeet Standard on the test

Mathematics Growth and Projection Example for Student in Grade 6

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2008 2009 2010 2011

TAK

S Ve

rtic

al S

cale

Sco

res

Scores Met Standard Commended Performance Projection

Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7 Grade 8

Student Growth

Student Performance Level in Current Year

Student Projection

Which students will have predicted performances?

Students must have a current, valid score in the TPM projection content area – Reading/ELA and Math.

Students must have taken TAKS, TAKS (Accommodated), or LAT for all content-area predictors.

Students must have taken the same language version for all content area predictors.

To be decided and announced this fall… A TPM methodology to allow two different languages in

2010) TPM for students who take TAKS-M in grades 4, 7, and 10

44

Current year Reading/ELA score for TAKS Current year Math score for TAKS

YES!

Current year Reading score for TAKS-AccCurrent year Math score for TAKS-M

NO!

Current year Reading score for Spanish TAKS Current year Math score for TAKS-Acc

NO!

Current year Reading score for Spanish TAKS Current year Math score for Spanish TAKS

YES!

Which students will have predicted performances?

Note: using current information on 9/18/09

How will this affect state and federal accountability?

All students who meet proficiency OR who are predicted to meet proficiency in the next high-stakes grade level will be counted in the “Met Standard” group.

Campus A

Students who Met Standard

in 2009 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No No

% Met Standard based on assessment results = 50%

Students who are Predicted

to Meet Standard based on

2009 scores

Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No

5 students Met Standard

7 students count as “Met Standard”

% Met Standard = 70%

+ 2 students who Did Not Meet Standard (but are predicted to)

Spring 2009

Yes Yes Yes

46

Reporting 2009 Online reports Student level

2008 vertical scale score 2009 vertical scale score Projection (yes or no)

Summary reports for campus, district, region, and state levels (Expected soon)

Number and percent Met Standard Number and percent Met Standard with TPM Number and percent Met Standard or Met Standard

with TPM

4848

Vertical ScaleVertical Scale(Reading a CSR in 2009)(Reading a CSR in 2009)

Grade Level

Horizontal Scale Score and“Met Std” Indicator

Vertical Scale Score

TPM – Projected to Meet Std

4949

TPM Parent ScriptTPM Parent ScriptYour child has received Texas Projection Measure Your child has received Texas Projection Measure (TPM) scores in addition to her TAKS scores. These (TPM) scores in addition to her TAKS scores. These new TPM scores let us know if your child is on track to new TPM scores let us know if your child is on track to pass at grade __ (the next high-stakes grade, and pass at grade __ (the next high-stakes grade, and grade 7 Writing). grade 7 Writing).

According to the TPM score on the Confidential According to the TPM score on the Confidential Student Report, your child is projected to pass/not to Student Report, your child is projected to pass/not to pass. We compare the projected score to the pass. We compare the projected score to the standard for the grade and subject. For students who standard for the grade and subject. For students who are not projected to pass, remediation will be offered, are not projected to pass, remediation will be offered, such as ….such as ….

Additional information is available on the TEA website. Additional information is available on the TEA website. Computers are available on campus for parents at ….Computers are available on campus for parents at ….

Reporting Spring 2010

For grades 5 and 8, any student retesting will have projections recalculated for all subjects

Grade 8 science will have a TPM TAKS-M students in grades 4, 7, and 10

will have projections

Students Who Retest When a student takes a retest, the student’s test

score from the primary administration will be used in the TPM as long as the primary test and retest have been administered in the same language.

For accountability calculations, the TPM from the higher of the two administrations (primary or first retest) will be used.

Students that retest will receive new projections in all subject areas each time

52

Prediction Model for TAKS-M

1. Transition Table – divides each proficiency level into three sublevels

2. A descriptive transition table that describes students’ progress relative to their progress expectations will be developed.

3. Progress targets that require students below proficiency to reach proficiency by the next high-stakes grade level (5, 8, and 11) will be created.

53

Prediction Model for TAKS-Alt

Possible Transition Table for TAKS-Alt

Using and Interpreting TPM

Reporting will allow focused interventions by campuses and districts

Four groups of students will be clearly identified: Met Standard/Made Growth (Yes/Yes) Met Standard/Missed Growth (Yes/No) Missed Standard/Made Growth (No/Yes) Missed Standard/Missed Growth (No/No)

Using Data from the TPM

Focus on effects rather than statistics Campus Teacher Interventions

Look at the efficacy of curriculum and/or instruction

Resources

Texas Education Agency http://www.tea.state.tx.us/index3.aspx?id=

3688&menu_id3=793 http://www.tea.state.tx.us/index3.aspx?

id=3818&menu_id3=793

Texas Turnaround Center http://www.txturnaround.org/webinars.html



http://www.txturnaround.org/webinars.html

vertical scale and texas projection measure

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