1. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world MANAGING WATER RESOURCES VARIABILITY FOR IMPROVED FOOD SECURITY AND LIVELIHOODS VLADIMIR SMAKHTIN Contributors: Giriraj Amarnath, Nishadi Eriyagama, Matthew McCartney, Paul Pavelic, Upamali Surangika International Water Management Institute (IWMI) CCAFS-WLE- IWMI Science Seminar, University of Copenhagen, 4 October 2013

2. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world TOO MUCHTOO LITTLE EVERYTHING IS VARIABLE, WATER - TOO 3. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world WATER VARIABILITY INCREASES WATER SCARCITY Source: Smakhtin and Schipper, 2008 4. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world Source: Brown and Lal (2006) WATER VARIABILITY INFLUENCES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT A climate with moderate annual rainfall and its low variability favors prosperity 5. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world WATER VARIABILITY MANIFESTS ITSELF IN DROUGHT AND FLOOD DAMAGES Source -EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Brussels Average annual characteristics over 1980-2008 6. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world IN MANY REGIONS OF THE WORLD, WATER RESOURCES VARIABILITY IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE 7. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world VARIABILITY MANAGEMENT MUST RECEIVE MUCH MORE SCIENCE, POLICY AND INVESTMENT ATTENTION Better quantification of variability hot spots, risks and extent Re-thinking water storage Conjunctive management of floods and droughts in river basins through subsurface solutions (vs just surface ones) 8. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world AGRICULTURE; PAGE (2005) POPULATION CIESIN - 2010 FLOOD EXPOSED GDP WB, 2010 IDENTIFY AND QUANTIFY HOT SPOTS 9. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world QUANTIFY RISK AND EXTENT 2010 8-days maps of inundation extentGanges Basin Source: Amarnath et al, 2012 10. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world LACK OF WATER STORAGE FOOD INSECURITY Source: World Bank, 2006 Ethiopia 11. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world PROMOTE THE IDEA OF WATER STORAGE CONTINUUM Source: McCartney and Smakhtin 2010 12. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world BETTER PLAN WATER STORAGE DEVELOPMENT A need for water storage for livestock Source: Eriyagama et al. 2009 Proportion of water deficit in mean drought that can be satisfied by existing large dams storage Source: McCartney et al, 2013 13. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Current Climate Dry Season 14. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Current Climate Wet Season 15. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Future Climate - Wet Season 16. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Underground Taming of Floods for Irrigation (UTF-I); Wet season 17. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Underground Taming of Floods for Irrigation (UTF-I); Dry season 18. CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT UTF-I desktop case study: Chao Phraya basin, Thailand (Source: Pavelic et al, 2012) Land Use UTFI in plan viewAlluvium aquifers 19. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT UTF-I desktop case study: Chao Phraya basin, Thailand (Source: Pavelic et al, 2012) Harvest water only in very wet years - approximately 1 year in 4 Around 200 km2 land dedicated to flood harvesting may be needed (< 1% of the total basin area) Additional 65,000- 270,000 ha of irrigation possible $150 mill / year - mean income to smallholder farmers Cost of implementation < $ 1 Bill. Payback time can be 7 -14 years, depending on the efficiency of the scheme Farmers participation is critical No analogs so far exist 20. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world KEEPING VARIABILITY ? Variability has positive effects too, e.g. the range of high and low flows, their proper timing and frequency is needed to ensure a healthy river The challenge is to alleviate negative aspects of variability, while maintaining its positive side 21. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world 21 THANK YOU ! 22. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world GANGES WATER MACHINE AND UTFI Suitability for UTFI: Prefeasibility analysis first 12 indicator groups of suitability next Potentially suitable are of 433,367 km2, where suitability is categorised from low to very high