volta drivers of change (cpwf gd workshop, sept 2011)

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Water for a foodsecure world Volta Basin Drivers Global Drivers Topic Working Group Workshop 1214 th September, Chiang Mai, Thailand 1 Fred Kizito, Cofie Olufunke, JeanPhilippe Venot, Augustine Ayantunde, Philippe Cecchi and Jennie Baron [email protected]

DESCRIPTION

By Fred Kizito, et al. As part of a CPWF September 2011 workshop in Thailand regarding global drivers. We have divided driver types into five categories: 1. Demographic/Social, 2. Economic, 3. Political/Institutional/Legal, 4. Environmental/Climate change, 5. Technological/ Innovations

TRANSCRIPT

Water for a food‐secure world

Volta Basin DriversGlobal Drivers Topic Working Group 

Workshop 12‐14th September, Chiang Mai, Thailand

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Fred Kizito, Cofie Olufunke, Jean‐Philippe Venot, Augustine Ayantunde, 

Philippe Cecchi and Jennie Baron

[email protected]

Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Presentation Outline

1. Conditions in the Volta Basin

2. Main basin-specific drivers

3. Basin responses to drivers

4. Learning processes

5. Questions/clarification

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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Main System Drivers Basin Specific Responses

Climate Variability

Demographic pressure

Energy demands

Trans‐boundary

Current conditions in the Volta Basin 

Political‐Economic 

Determinants

External (outside basin)

Internal(inside basin)

Markets

Policies

Institutions

Information

Technology

Resources

Adaptive learningand introduction of on‐groundInterventions

Land Use Change

Migration

Trans‐boundaryagreements 

Regional Integration

Enhances coping and adaptive mechanisms that reduces Basin‐level stresses and improves resilience

Learning Processes

Conceptual illustration

Note: The interaction of factors in the system is non‐linear and mainly influenced by the dominant factor at a given time 

Above determinants operate at various scales; local, regional and basin level

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Land pressure

Resource Management

Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Conditions of the Volta Basin

1. Location and bio-physical characteristics

2. Socio-economic characteristics

3. Institutional arrangements

4. Trans-boundary nature of its placement

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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Location and background

Source: BFP, Volta Water Atlas, 2009

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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Biophysical Characteristics1. Climate

2. Water Resourcesa) Surface Water Resources

b) Groundwater Resources

3. Soils, Vegetation and Land Use

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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Climate

Source: BFP, Volta Water Atlas, 2009

Characterized by high spatial variability with 3 major climatic zones

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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Water Resources

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Source: BFP, Volta Water Atlas, 2009

Surface and Groundwater resources Groundwater potential

1 2 3

Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Soils, Vegetation and Land Use

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Source: Barry et al, 2005

Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Socio‐economic characteristics

1. Per-capital income: Variable in different countries

2. Population trends: Population growth rate ~ 3%

3. Market access and stability remains a challenge

4. Access to agricultural inputs and services

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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Socio‐economic characteristics

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Generated from WHO and UNICEF data, 2008

Ghana

Burkina Faso

Togo

71%40%

66%

Access to good quality water

Ghana

Burkina Faso

Togo

71%40%

66%

1.63

1.26

0.88

Generated from World Bank Data, 2005‐2010

Gross Domestic Product  * 1000 (PPP) (Country wide)

Source: BFP, Volta Water Atlas, 2009

Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Institutional arrangements

1. International/trans-boundary level e.g. Volta Basin Authority

2. National institutions e.g. Ministries

3. Regional institutions e.g. Regional rural growth projects

4. District institutions: e.g. District assemblies

5. Local institutions e.g. Farmer associations

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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Basin‐specific drivers

1. Climate variability

2. Demographic pressure

3. Land pressure

4. Increasing energy demands

5. Trans-boundary issues

6. Political-Economic conditions

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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Climate variability1. Rainfall trends and patterns impact:

a) Stream flow

b) Seasonal soil moisture

c) Agricultural productivity

2. Extreme events

a) Droughts (related to rainfall)

b) Flooding (related to rainfall/dam releases)

3. Temperature rises (associated with CC)

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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Climate Variability

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Source: BFP, Volta Water Atlas, 2009

Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Temperature trends

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Navrongo, Northern Ghana

Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Demographic trends

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Increasing Land Pressure

Global economic uncertainties

Global and regional rise in food prices

Opportunity to meet demands in developing countries

Land acquisition deals by conglomerates

More pressure on reduced land resources

What are the livelihood implications of the rural poor who lose their land to the large conglomerates?

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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Increasing Energy demands

Have resulted in:

1. Dam Construction:a) Hydropower generation

b) Regulation of flow and

c) Increased irrigation

2. Flood control and energy agreements

3. Loss of ecosystem services

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Source: Barry et al, 2005

Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Trans‐boundary considerations 

1. Dam construction- Soil degradation and flooding

2. Transhumance – Land degradation

3. Bushfires- Common occurrence

4. Deforestation

5. Ecosystem degradation e.g. deforestation, siltation and water quality issues

6. Market price fluctuations

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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Political‐Economic drivers

1. Lack of political will

2. Decentralization- could be hindered by insufficient resources and institutional capacity

3. Political unrest, conflicts, (in)stability

4. Economic conditions which mainly impact local resource users

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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Responses to basin‐specific drivers

1. Land-use changes

a) Agricultural intensification

b) Agricultural ‘extensification’

2. Ecosystem services enhancement

3. Migration in response to basin pressures

4. Trans-boundary agreements

5. Regional integration

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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Learning processes: Pathways to adapt to drivers

1. On VBDC Work: Integrated Water Resources Management

2. Increment in irrigated acreage

3. Technological changes in conjunction with indigenous knowledge

4. Government incentives

5. Alternative energy sources

6. On-going work on ecosystem services and resilience

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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world

Questions/Clarifications

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