volta drivers of change (cpwf gd workshop, sept 2011)
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By Fred Kizito, et al. As part of a CPWF September 2011 workshop in Thailand regarding global drivers. We have divided driver types into five categories: 1. Demographic/Social, 2. Economic, 3. Political/Institutional/Legal, 4. Environmental/Climate change, 5. Technological/ InnovationsTRANSCRIPT
Water for a food‐secure world
Volta Basin DriversGlobal Drivers Topic Working Group
Workshop 12‐14th September, Chiang Mai, Thailand
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Fred Kizito, Cofie Olufunke, Jean‐Philippe Venot, Augustine Ayantunde,
Philippe Cecchi and Jennie Baron
Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Presentation Outline
1. Conditions in the Volta Basin
2. Main basin-specific drivers
3. Basin responses to drivers
4. Learning processes
5. Questions/clarification
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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Main System Drivers Basin Specific Responses
Climate Variability
Demographic pressure
Energy demands
Trans‐boundary
Current conditions in the Volta Basin
Political‐Economic
Determinants
External (outside basin)
Internal(inside basin)
Markets
Policies
Institutions
Information
Technology
Resources
Adaptive learningand introduction of on‐groundInterventions
Land Use Change
Migration
Trans‐boundaryagreements
Regional Integration
Enhances coping and adaptive mechanisms that reduces Basin‐level stresses and improves resilience
Learning Processes
Conceptual illustration
Note: The interaction of factors in the system is non‐linear and mainly influenced by the dominant factor at a given time
Above determinants operate at various scales; local, regional and basin level
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Land pressure
Resource Management
Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Conditions of the Volta Basin
1. Location and bio-physical characteristics
2. Socio-economic characteristics
3. Institutional arrangements
4. Trans-boundary nature of its placement
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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Location and background
Source: BFP, Volta Water Atlas, 2009
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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Biophysical Characteristics1. Climate
2. Water Resourcesa) Surface Water Resources
b) Groundwater Resources
3. Soils, Vegetation and Land Use
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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Climate
Source: BFP, Volta Water Atlas, 2009
Characterized by high spatial variability with 3 major climatic zones
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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Water Resources
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Source: BFP, Volta Water Atlas, 2009
Surface and Groundwater resources Groundwater potential
1 2 3
Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Soils, Vegetation and Land Use
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Source: Barry et al, 2005
Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Socio‐economic characteristics
1. Per-capital income: Variable in different countries
2. Population trends: Population growth rate ~ 3%
3. Market access and stability remains a challenge
4. Access to agricultural inputs and services
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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Socio‐economic characteristics
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Generated from WHO and UNICEF data, 2008
Ghana
Burkina Faso
Togo
71%40%
66%
Access to good quality water
Ghana
Burkina Faso
Togo
71%40%
66%
1.63
1.26
0.88
Generated from World Bank Data, 2005‐2010
Gross Domestic Product * 1000 (PPP) (Country wide)
Source: BFP, Volta Water Atlas, 2009
Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Institutional arrangements
1. International/trans-boundary level e.g. Volta Basin Authority
2. National institutions e.g. Ministries
3. Regional institutions e.g. Regional rural growth projects
4. District institutions: e.g. District assemblies
5. Local institutions e.g. Farmer associations
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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Basin‐specific drivers
1. Climate variability
2. Demographic pressure
3. Land pressure
4. Increasing energy demands
5. Trans-boundary issues
6. Political-Economic conditions
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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Climate variability1. Rainfall trends and patterns impact:
a) Stream flow
b) Seasonal soil moisture
c) Agricultural productivity
2. Extreme events
a) Droughts (related to rainfall)
b) Flooding (related to rainfall/dam releases)
3. Temperature rises (associated with CC)
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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Climate Variability
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Source: BFP, Volta Water Atlas, 2009
Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Temperature trends
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Navrongo, Northern Ghana
Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Increasing Land Pressure
Global economic uncertainties
Global and regional rise in food prices
Opportunity to meet demands in developing countries
Land acquisition deals by conglomerates
More pressure on reduced land resources
What are the livelihood implications of the rural poor who lose their land to the large conglomerates?
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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Increasing Energy demands
Have resulted in:
1. Dam Construction:a) Hydropower generation
b) Regulation of flow and
c) Increased irrigation
2. Flood control and energy agreements
3. Loss of ecosystem services
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Source: Barry et al, 2005
Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Trans‐boundary considerations
1. Dam construction- Soil degradation and flooding
2. Transhumance – Land degradation
3. Bushfires- Common occurrence
4. Deforestation
5. Ecosystem degradation e.g. deforestation, siltation and water quality issues
6. Market price fluctuations
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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Political‐Economic drivers
1. Lack of political will
2. Decentralization- could be hindered by insufficient resources and institutional capacity
3. Political unrest, conflicts, (in)stability
4. Economic conditions which mainly impact local resource users
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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Responses to basin‐specific drivers
1. Land-use changes
a) Agricultural intensification
b) Agricultural ‘extensification’
2. Ecosystem services enhancement
3. Migration in response to basin pressures
4. Trans-boundary agreements
5. Regional integration
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Water for a food‐secure worldWater for a food‐secure world
Learning processes: Pathways to adapt to drivers
1. On VBDC Work: Integrated Water Resources Management
2. Increment in irrigated acreage
3. Technological changes in conjunction with indigenous knowledge
4. Government incentives
5. Alternative energy sources
6. On-going work on ecosystem services and resilience
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