vtra 2015 km -348 case and vtra 2015 base case comparisondorpjr/vtra_2015... · vessel traffic risk...
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![Page 1: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 1 GW-VCU : DRAFT
VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparison
Jason R.W. Merrick (VCU) and J. Rene van Dorp (GW)
August 9th – 10th, 2016
Draft
![Page 2: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 2
VTRA 2015 Study Area
GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
![Page 3: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
6 5
7
8
9
15
4 3
1
2 13
10
11
14
12
1. Buoy J 2. ATBA 3. WSJF 4. ESJF 5. Rosario 6. Guemes 7. Saddlebag 8. Georgia Str.
9. Haro/Boun. 10. PS North 11. PS South 12. Tacoma 13. Sar/Skagit 14. SJ Islands 15. Southern Gulf Islands
VTRA 2015 Waterway Zones
DEFINITION OF 15 WATERWAY ZONES
Draft
![Page 4: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 4 GW-VCU : DRAFT
VTRA 2015 Routes for What-If Case: KM - 348
CASE KM 348 VTRA 2015 Updated Case KM 348Tankers 348
Bunkering Support 17TOTAL WHAT-IF FOCUS VESSELS 365
Draft
![Page 5: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 5 GW-VCU : DRAFT
5% 5% 5%
90% 90% 90%
0 4 1 3
2 6 10
8 5 7 12 9 11 T1 T2 T3
VTRA 2010 Equidistant Fixed Arrival Pattern (one every 4 days) VTRA 2015 Random Arrival Pattern ( 3 Random Times in 12 days)
VTRA 2015 – What If FV Scheduled Random Arrival Pattern Model
(See Example Graph below) Draft
![Page 6: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison
Oil Spill Size Category: ALL SPILL SIZES
Draft
![Page 7: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 7 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL ANNUAL
OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS IN SPILL SIZE CATEGORY
ALL SPILL SIZES
VTRA ‘15 Case: BASE CASE
Annual Potential Oil Loss: ALL SPILL SIZES (including accid. with zero oil loss) Draft
![Page 8: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 8 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL ANNUAL
OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS IN SPILL SIZE CATEGORY
ALL SPILL SIZES
VTRA ‘15 Case: KM - 348
Annual Potential Oil Loss: ALL SPILL SIZES (including accid. with zero oil loss) Draft
![Page 9: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
VTRA '15: Base Case 3D Risk Profile All FV -Pot.C+G+A.Oil Loss: 100% of Base Case POL
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 9 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
![Page 10: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
VTRA '15: KM-348 3D Risk Profile All FV -Pot.C+G+A.Oil Loss: 121% of Base Case POL
23-24 22-23
21-22 20-21
19-20 18-19
17-18 16-17
15-16 14-15
13-14 12-13
11-12 10-11
9-10 8-9
7-8 6-7
5-6 4-5
3-4 2-3
1-2 0-1
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 10 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
![Page 11: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
0.1%
0.1%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
3.9%
4.7%
6.3%
8.9%
10.6%
10.8%
11.0%
11.5%
14.2%
16.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.5%
0.6%
1.6%
4.5%
6.6%
7.3%
15.8%
10.6%
10.8%
10.4%
11.2%
28.9%
12.1%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%
ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.01Sar/Skagit : +0.0% | x 1.05
SJ Islands : 0.0% | x 0.93Tac. South : 0.0% | x 0.96
Buoy J : +0.9% | x 2.48Georgia Str. : +0.6% | x 1.17
WSJF : +1.9% | x 1.40Sthrn. Glf. Isl. : +1.0% | x 1.16
ESJF : +6.9% | x 1.78PS North : 0.0% | x 1.00
Saddlebag : 0.0% | x 1.00Rosario : -0.6% | x 0.94
PS South : -0.3% | x 0.98Haro/Boun. : +14.8% | x 2.04
Guemes : -3.9% | x 0.76
% Base Case Pot. Oil (C+G+A) Loss (OL) - ALL_FV
% Base Case Pot. Oil (C + G + A) Loss - ALL_FV
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 121% ( +21.2% | x 1.21) VTRA '15: Base Case : 100%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 11 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
![Page 12: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.9%
1.1%
1.3%
2.3%
3.0%
3.6%
3.7%
7.3%
7.8%
10.3%
13.3%
44.9%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.9%
1.2%
1.5%
2.3%
3.2%
3.6%
3.8%
7.3%
8.5%
10.8%
13.1%
44.2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.03Sar/Skagit : +0.0% | x 1.04
Buoy J : +0.0% | x 1.10Saddlebag : +0.0% | x 1.02SJ Islands : +0.1% | x 1.09
Rosario : +0.2% | x 1.14Tac. South : 0.0% | x 1.00
ESJF : +0.2% | x 1.06Georgia Str. : +0.0% | x 1.00
WSJF : +0.2% | x 1.04PS North : +0.0% | x 1.00
Haro/Boun. : +0.6% | x 1.08Guemes : +0.6% | x 1.05
Sthrn. Glf. Isl. : -0.1% | x 0.99PS South : -0.7% | x 0.99
% Base Case Pot. Accident Freq. (AF) - ALL_FV
% Base Case Pot. Accident (C+G+A) Frequency - ALL_FV
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 101% ( +1.1% | x 1.01) VTRA '15: Base Case : 100%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 12 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
![Page 13: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: 2500 m3 or more
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
![Page 14: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 14 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL
ANNUAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE 2,500 m3 or more
≈ 0.50% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Average of ≈ 6,798 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 5,846 Metric. Tons)
VTRA ‘15: BASE CASE
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES LARGER THAN 2,500 m3 Draft
![Page 15: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 15 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL
ANNUAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE 2,500 m3 or more
≈ 0.97% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Average of ≈ 4,770 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 4,102 Metric Tons)
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES LARGER THAN 2,500 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case: KM - 348
Draft
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0.0003%
0.0033%
0.0006%
0.0009%
0.0031%
0.0048%
0.0259%
0.0223%
0.0308%
0.0311%
0.0287%
0.0516%
0.0815%
0.1075%
0.1064%
0.0004%
0.0044%
0.0006%
0.0008%
0.0283%
0.0143%
0.0392%
0.0445%
0.0309%
0.0301%
0.2699%
0.2373%
0.0824%
0.1026%
0.087%
0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30%
Sar/Skagit : +0.00% | x 1.19SJ Islands : +0.00% | x 1.34
ATBA : +0.00% | x 1.04Tac. South : 0.00% | x 0.88
Sthrn. Glf. Ils. : +0.03% | x 9.01Buoy J : +0.01% | x 2.98
Georgia Str. : +0.01% | x 1.51WSJF : +0.02% | x 2.00
PS North : +0.00% | x 1.01PS South : 0.00% | x 0.97
Haro/Boun. : +0.24% | x 9.39ESJF : +0.19% | x 4.60
Saddlebag : +0.00% | x 1.01Rosario : 0.00% | x 0.95
Guemes : -0.02% | x 0.82
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 2500 cubic meters or more
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 0.97% ( +0.47% | x 1.95) VTRA '15: Base Case : 0.50%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 16 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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5,688
9,556
9,066
6,715
4,676
5,873
6,694
6,721
4,974
5,956
4,589
6,240
7,161
6,812
8,198
5,597
6,172
8,817
5,409
3,480
6,933
5,651
6,088
4,983
5,917
3,433
3,423
6,993
6,836
6,465
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Sar/Skagit : -91.1 | x 0.98SJ Islands : -3383.5 | x 0.65
ATBA : -249.1 | x 0.97Tac. South : -+1305.7 | x 0.81
Sthrn. Glf. Ils. : -1196.2 | x 0.74Buoy J : +1059.3 | x 1.18
Georgia Str. : -1042.9 | x 0.84WSJF : -633.5 | x 0.91
PS North : +8.9 | x 1.00PS South : -39.0 | x 0.99
Haro/Boun. : -1156.0 | x 0.75ESJF : -2816.9 | x 0.55
Saddlebag : -167.9 | x 0.98Rosario : +23.9 | x 1.00
Guemes : -1733.7 | x 0.79
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 2500 cubic meters or more
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 4770 m3 ( -2028.5 | x 0.70) VTRA '15: Base Case : 6798 m3
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 17 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
![Page 18: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: 1000 m3 - 2500 m3
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
![Page 19: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 19 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL
ANNUAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3
≈ 0.61% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Average of ≈ 1,619 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 1,392 Metric Tons)
VTRA ‘15: BASE CASE
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3 Draft
![Page 20: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 20 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF POTENTIAL
ANNUAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3
≈ 0.83% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Average of ≈ 1,708 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 1,469 Metric Tons)
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1,000 m3 - 2,500 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case: KM - 348
Draft
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0.0003%
0.0038%
0.0003%
0.0013%
0.0177%
0.0038%
0.0279%
0.0201%
0.0609%
0.0348%
0.0670%
0.0516%
0.1302%
0.0486%
0.1429%
0.0003%
0.0041%
0.0003%
0.0013%
0.0214%
0.0058%
0.0316%
0.0345%
0.0606%
0.0344%
0.2455%
0.0633%
0.1357%
0.0472%
0.1493%
0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 0.20% 0.25% 0.30%
Sar/Skagit : +0.00% | x 1.06SJ Islands : +0.00% | x 1.07
ATBA : 0.00% | x 0.92Tac. South : 0.00% | x 1.00
Shtrn. Glf. Isl. : +0.00% | x 1.21Buoy J : +0.00% | x 1.50
Georgia Str. : +0.00% | x 1.13WSJF : +0.01% | x 1.72
PS North : 0.00% | x 1.00PS South : 0.00% | x 0.99
Haro/Boun. : +0.18% | x 3.66ESJF : +0.01% | x 1.23
Saddlebag : +0.01% | x 1.04Rosario : 0.00% | x 0.97
Guemes : +0.01% | x 1.05
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1000 - 2500 m3
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 0.83% ( +0.22% | x 1.37) VTRA '15: Base Case : 0.61%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 21 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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1,389
1,294
1,562
1,246
1,625
1,641
1,599
1,603
1,398
1,464
1,443
1,462
1,793
1,717
1,715
1,451
1,314
1,616
1,246
1,716
1,654
1,602
1,754
1,398
1,469
1,830
1,561
1,782
1,733
1,706
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Sar/Skagit : +62.8 | x 1.05SJ Islands : +20.0 | x 1.02
ATBA : +54.0 | x 1.03Tac. South : +0.0 | x 1.00
Shtrn. Glf. Isl. : +90.5 | x 1.06Buoy J : +12.8 | x 1.01
Georgia Str. : +3.7 | x 1.00WSJF : +150.9 | x 1.09PS North : -0.3 | x 1.00
PS South : +4.9 | x 1.00Haro/Boun. : +387.0 | x 1.27
ESJF : +99.5 | x 1.07Saddlebag : -10.8 | x 0.99
Rosario : +15.7 | x 1.01Guemes : -9.2 | x 0.99
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident - ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1000 - 2500 m3
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 1708 m3 ( +89.5 | x 1.06) VTRA '15: Base Case : 1619 m3
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 22 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
![Page 23: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: 1 m3 - 1000 m3
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
![Page 24: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Average of ≈ 47 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 295 Barrels)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 24 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1 m3 - 1000 m3
≈ 54.2% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1 m3 – 1,000 m3
VTRA ‘15: BASE CASE
Draft
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Average of ≈ 47 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 298 Barrels)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 25 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 1 m3 - 1000 m3
≈ 54.1% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 1 m3 – 1,000 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case: KM - 348
Draft
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0.1%
0.4%
0.0%
2.3%
11.4%
0.2%
2.6%
2.0%
5.5%
30.0%
8.3%
3.0%
0.6%
0.9%
3.6%
0.1%
0.4%
0.0%
2.4%
11.3%
0.2%
2.4%
2.0%
5.6%
29.4%
8.5%
3.1%
0.6%
1.0%
3.9%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
Sar/Skagit : +0.0% | x 1.04SJ Islands : +0.0% | x 1.03
ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.03Tac. South : +0.0% | x 1.01
Shtrn. Glf. Isl. : -0.1% | x 0.99Buoy J : +0.0% | x 1.03
Georgia Str. : -0.2% | x 0.93WSJF : +0.0% | x 1.01
PS North : +0.0% | x 1.00PS South : -0.6% | x 0.98
Haro/Boun. : +0.2% | x 1.02ESJF : +0.0% | x 1.01
Saddlebag : +0.0% | x 1.03Rosario : +0.2% | x 1.22Guemes : +0.4% | x 1.10
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1 - 1000 m3
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 54.0% ( -0.2% | x 1.00) VTRA '15: Base Case : 54.1%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 26 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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68
26
63
17
38
80
37
100
108
19
105
103
95
82
43
68
27
63
17
38
80
38
100
107
19
107
116
90
49
36
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Sar/Skagit : -0.5 | x 0.99SJ Islands : +1.1 | x 1.04
ATBA : -0.1 | x 1.00Tac. South : -+0.1 | x 0.99
Shtrn. Glf. Isl. : -0.6 | x 0.99Buoy J : -0.3 | x 1.00
Georgia Str. : +1.8 | x 1.05WSJF : +0.4 | x 1.00
PS North : -0.5 | x 1.00PS South : +0.0 | x 1.00
Haro/Boun. : +2.5 | x 1.02ESJF : +12.8 | x 1.12
Saddlebag : -5.3 | x 0.94Rosario : -32.3 | x 0.60
Guemes : -7.0 | x 0.84
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident
Potential Spill Size (m3) per Accident -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 1 - 1000 m3
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 47 m3 ( +0.5 | x 1.01) VTRA '15: Base Case : 47 m3
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 27 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
![Page 28: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: 0 m3 - 1 m3
By Waterway Zone Risk Comparison Draft
![Page 29: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Average of ≈ 0.01 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 2.3 gallons)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 29 GW-VCU : DRAFT
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 0 m3 - 1 m3
≈ 100% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
VTRA ‘15: BASE CASE
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3 Draft
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Average of ≈ 0.01 m3
Per Potential Spill ( ≈ 2.4 gallons)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 30 GW-VCU : DRAFT
≈ 100% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Annual Potential Oil Loss: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 0 m3 - 1 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case: KM - 348
Draft
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Average of ≈ 0.01 m3
Per Potential Spill (≈ 2.3 gallons)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 31 GW-VCU : DRAFT
≈ 100% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Potential Annual # Accidents: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 0 m3 - 1 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case: BASE CASE
Draft
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Average of ≈ 0.01 m3
Per Potential Spill (= 2.2 gallons)
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 32 GW-VCU : DRAFT
≈ 100% Probability of Spill Occurrence
in 10 years
Potential Annual # Accidents: SPILL SIZES BETWEEN 0 m3 – 1 m3
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF ANNUAL
POTENTIAL OIL LOSS OF ACCIDENTS
WITH SPILL SIZE BETWEEN 0 m3 - 1 m3
VTRA ‘15 Case: KM - 348
Draft
![Page 33: VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA 2015 Base Case Comparisondorpjr/VTRA_2015... · VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015 7/30/2016 GW-VCU : DRAFT 1 VTRA 2015 KM -348 Case and VTRA](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062922/5f0950c07e708231d4263e92/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
7%
39%
1%
62%
100%
16%
79%
80%
96%
100%
97%
73%
33%
43%
99%
7%
42%
1%
62%
100%
17%
79%
81%
96%
100%
97%
75%
34%
47%
99%
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0%
Sar/Skagit : +0.2% | x 1.03SJ Islands : +2.5% | x 1.07
ATBA : +0.0% | x 1.03Tac. South : -0.1% | x 1.00
Sthrn. Glf. Isl. : 0.0% | x 1.00Buoy J : +1.5% | x 1.09
Georgia Str. : +0.2% | x 1.00WSJF : +1.3% | x 1.02
PS North : +0.1% | x 1.00PS South : 0.0% | x 1.00
Haro/Boun. : +0.8% | x 1.01ESJF : +2.1% | x 1.03
Saddlebag : +0.6% | x 1.02Rosario : +4.4% | x 1.10Guemes : +0.2% | x 1.00
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years
Prob. Estimate At Least One Accident in 10 Years -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 0 - 264 Gallons
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 100.0% ( +0.0% | x 1.00) VTRA '15: Base Case : 100.0%
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 33 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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0.7
3.9
0.1
1.1
0.7
1.9
1.4
0.6
1.1
0.3
4.2
2.1
5.8
23.0
10.4
1.0
2.7
0.1
1.1
0.7
1.4
1.5
0.6
1.3
0.3
4.6
1.7
6.5
21.4
8.8
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0
Sar/Skagit : +0.3 | x 1.37SJ Islands : -1.2 | x 0.68
ATBA : 0.0 | x 0.97Tac. South : +0.0 | x 1.00
Sthrn. Glf. Isl. : +0.0 | x 1.06Buoy J : -0.4 | x 0.77
Georgia Str. : +0.0 | x 1.03WSJF : 0.0 | x 1.00
PS North : +0.2 | x 1.17PS South : +0.0 | x 1.01
Haro/Boun. : +0.4 | x 1.08ESJF : -0.4 | x 0.80
Saddlebag : +0.7 | x 1.12Rosario : -1.6 | x 0.93Guemes : -1.6 | x 0.84
Potential Spill Size (Gallons) per Accident
Potential Spill Size (Gallons) per Accident -ALL_FV - Oil Spill Size Category: 0 - 264 Gallons
VTRA '15: KM-348 : 2.2 gallons ( -0.1 | x 0.97) VTRA '15: Base Case : 2.3 gallons
VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
7/30/2016 34 GW-VCU : DRAFT
Draft
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VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Oil Spill Size Category: All Spill Sizes
Summary Risk Comparison Draft
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OIL_2500_MORE OIL_1000_2500 OIL_1_1000 OIL_0_1 TOTAL_OIL
Base Case % Potential Annual Oil Loss 42.0% 12.3% 45.3% 0.5% 100.0%
Base Case % Potenial Annual Accident Frequency 0.01% 0.01% 1.8% 98.2% 100.0%
Average potential spill size per accident (in m^3) 6,798 1,619 46.9 0.01 1.8
Probability of at least one accident in 1 year by spill size 0.05% 0.06% 7.5% 98.7% 98.8%
Probability of at least one accident in 10 year by spill size 0.50% 0.61% 54.2% 100.0% 100.0%
Probability of at least one accident in 25 years by spill size 1.24% 1.52% 85.8% 100.0% 100.0%
OIL_2500_MORE OIL_1000_2500 OIL_1_1000 OIL_0_1 TOTAL_OIL
Base Case % Potential Annual Oil Loss 57.5% ( +15.46%| x1.37 ) 17.7% ( +5.42%| x1.44 ) 45.6% ( +0.31%| x1.01 ) 0.5% ( -0.01%| x0.98 ) 121.2% ( +21.2%| x1.21 )
Base Case % Potenial Annual Accident Frequency 0.02% ( +0.01%| x1.95 ) 0.02% ( +0.01%| x1.37 ) 1.8% ( -0.01%| x1.00 ) 99.3% ( +1.1%| x1.01 ) 101.1% ( +1.1%| x1.01 )
Average potential spill size per accident (in m^3) 4771 ( -2028 | x0.70 ) 1708 ( +89 | x1.06 ) 47.4 ( +0.5 | x1.01 ) 0.01 ( 0.00 | x0.97 ) 2.2 ( +0.4 | x1.20 )
Probability of at least one accident in 1 year by spill size 0.10% ( +0.05%| x1.95 ) 0.08% ( +0.02%| x1.37 ) 7.5% ( -0.03%| x1.00 ) 98.8% ( +0.06% | x1.00 ) 98.9% ( +0.06%| x1.00 )
Probability of at least one accident in 10 year by spill size 0.97% ( +0.47%| x1.95 ) 0.83% ( +0.22%| x1.36 ) 54.1% ( -0.15%| x1.00 ) 100.0% ( 0.00%| x1.00 ) 100.0% ( 0.00%| x1.00 )
Probability of at least one accident in 25 years by spill size 2.41% ( +1.16%| x1.94 ) 2.07% ( +0.55%| x1.36 ) 85.7% ( -0.12%| x1.00 ) 100.0% ( 0.00%| x1.00 ) 100.0% ( 0.00%| x1.00 )
VTRA
'15
BASE
CAS
EVT
RA '1
5 KM
- 34
8VESSEL TRAFFIC RISK ASSESSMENT (VTRA) 2015
Summary Risk Comparison
Draft