evievievi

Vulnerability Index for the EnvironmentVulnerability Index for the Environment

Outline of the EVI Outline of the EVI

Dr Ursula Kaly, Craig Pratt, Dr Russell Howorth, Jackson Dr Ursula Kaly, Craig Pratt, Dr Russell Howorth, Jackson Lum, Robin Koshy, Emma Sale-Mario, Prof. Lino Briguglio, Lum, Robin Koshy, Emma Sale-Mario, Prof. Lino Briguglio,

Helena McLeod, Reginald Pal and Susana SchmallHelena McLeod, Reginald Pal and Susana Schmall

Topics for today:Topics for today:

Why do we need it and what is it?Why do we need it and what is it? UsesUses Approach to building the EVIApproach to building the EVI OutputsOutputs How are we developing the EVI?How are we developing the EVI?

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1. Why ?1. Why ?The Environmental Revolution The Environmental Revolution began in 1962…began in 1962…Lots of $$$$x10Lots of $$$$x1066 have been have been spent...spent...

So why are we losing the Earth So why are we losing the Earth anyway?anyway?

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Reason 1Reason 1 Management has been at very small and very Management has been at very small and very

large scaleslarge scales– Local, kms, EIAs, Plans, replanting, ad hocLocal, kms, EIAs, Plans, replanting, ad hoc– Global & Regional, IPCC, CBD, etcGlobal & Regional, IPCC, CBD, etc

Economies, social / cultural Economies, social / cultural systems are organised at the systems are organised at the scale of COUNTRIES. To scale of COUNTRIES. To integrate the environment, we integrate the environment, we need information at that scale !need information at that scale !

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Reason 2Reason 2 Management is too often PROCESS focusedManagement is too often PROCESS focused

– We limit pollution….We limit pollution….– We stick a conservation area here or there….We stick a conservation area here or there….

Need to focus on OUTCOMES Need to focus on OUTCOMES using monitoring/ auditingusing monitoring/ auditing

- What do we want our environment to - What do we want our environment to be like?be like?

- Did that policy / action work?- Did that policy / action work?

- If not, adjust !- If not, adjust !

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We need tools like the EVIWe need tools like the EVI

Ensuring the Future

What is What is VulnerabilityVulnerability ? ?

The potential for the attributes of a system The potential for the attributes of a system to to respondrespond adversely (be damaged) by adversely (be damaged) by

hazardoushazardous events events (the converse is (the converse is resilienceresilience))

The hazards / risks The hazards / risks The respondersThe responders Looks to the future - not just a statement of Looks to the future - not just a statement of

nownow

What is a What is a Vulnerability Vulnerability indexindex ? ?

A shortcutA shortcut. A relatively inexpensive way of . A relatively inexpensive way of characterising the vulnerability of systems (at the level characterising the vulnerability of systems (at the level of a region, of a region, countrycountry, province), province)

By doing this as an index, the characterisation can be By doing this as an index, the characterisation can be comparativecomparative because there is a common basis because there is a common basis

What is the alternative?What is the alternative?

Ad hocAd hoc assessments done on a case-by-case basis for assessments done on a case-by-case basis for each country - very costly in terms of resources & timeeach country - very costly in terms of resources & time

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What features should it What features should it have?have?

Outcomes Country

AuditSignal

Quick

Space comparisons

Time comparisons

Based on ecology

Intuitive

Understandable

Ensuring the Future

Risk

Resilience

Impartial

Simple as possible

Works on different scales

Adaptable to other uses

Standardises measures

Has confidence measures in data

Many functions

Single figure & breakdown

Types of Vulnerability indicesTypes of Vulnerability indices

Naming of index:Naming of index:

Based on those systems which RESPOND, not the Based on those systems which RESPOND, not the hazards themselveshazards themselves

Indices concerned with welfare of human Indices concerned with welfare of human systems (Economic, Social)systems (Economic, Social)

Anthropogenic impacts, Natural disasters, Climate Anthropogenic impacts, Natural disasters, Climate change / Sea-level, ENSO change / Sea-level, ENSO

Indices concerned with welfare of natural Indices concerned with welfare of natural systemssystems

This is first real attempt: The Environmental This is first real attempt: The Environmental Vulnerability IndexVulnerability Index

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2. Uses2. Uses Ensuring the future !Ensuring the future ! Allows integration of environment in country’s Allows integration of environment in country’s

development / welfaredevelopment / welfare Determination of LDC statusDetermination of LDC status What IS the environmental vulnerability of a countryWhat IS the environmental vulnerability of a country Predictive - types of hazards and approaches to Predictive - types of hazards and approaches to

stewardshipstewardship Identify focus for external assistanceIdentify focus for external assistance Performance indicator for donor fundingPerformance indicator for donor funding Measure of change (every 5 years)Measure of change (every 5 years) Raising awarenessRaising awareness Monitoring sustainable developmentMonitoring sustainable development Support SOE reportingSupport SOE reporting

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3. Approach to building3. Approach to buildingthe EVIthe EVI

Model / Framework Model / Framework Smart IndicatorsSmart Indicators

The Model / FrameworkThe Model / FrameworkWhat is vulnerability made of?What is vulnerability made of?

There are the There are the Risks Risks and…and… There is There is ResilienceResilience to those risksto those risks

Intrinsic resilience:Intrinsic resilience: Innate Innate fragility of a fragility of a systemsystem

Extrinsic resilience:Extrinsic resilience: result of hazards which result of hazards which have acted in the pasthave acted in the past

We decided to use “health” or We decided to use “health” or “degradation” of ecosystems, populations, “degradation” of ecosystems, populations, resources, species resources, species

Assumption: The more damage sustained Assumption: The more damage sustained in the past, the less resistance to future in the past, the less resistance to future stressesstresses

Types of sub-indexTypes of sub-index Risk exposure (REI)Risk exposure (REI)

– How much risk to future stresses is there?How much risk to future stresses is there?– Based on existing rates of stress (narrow time frame)Based on existing rates of stress (narrow time frame)

Intrinsic Resilience (IRI)Intrinsic Resilience (IRI)– Features that make up natural resilience (productivity, Features that make up natural resilience (productivity,

height, rates of reproduction)height, rates of reproduction) Extrinsic Resilience = Environmental Extrinsic Resilience = Environmental

Degradation (EDI)Degradation (EDI)– What is the current state of the responders?What is the current state of the responders?– Assumes “health” is an indication of ability to withstand Assumes “health” is an indication of ability to withstand

future stressesfuture stresses– Current health is the result of all previous stressesCurrent health is the result of all previous stresses

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Smart IndicatorsSmart Indicators Can’t measure everything, so need indicatorsCan’t measure everything, so need indicators List of List of 4949 indicators quantify / characterise risk indicators quantify / characterise risk

and resilienceand resilience Broad based with Indicators for each of the Broad based with Indicators for each of the

aspects of vulnerability REI, IRI, EDI, also can aspects of vulnerability REI, IRI, EDI, also can examine categories of risk (A, M, G, B)examine categories of risk (A, M, G, B)

‘‘Smart indicators’ - capture large number of Smart indicators’ - capture large number of elements in complex interactive system and elements in complex interactive system and show how the value obtained relates to some show how the value obtained relates to some ideal or agreed-upon condition. Often end-point ideal or agreed-upon condition. Often end-point focused on OUTCOMESfocused on OUTCOMES

Put together….Put together…. System for System for scoringscoring the signals for each the signals for each

indicator on a common scale (1-7) - data can indicator on a common scale (1-7) - data can be heterogeneousbe heterogeneous

Option for weighting if requiredOption for weighting if required Signals accumulated into Signals accumulated into sub-indicessub-indices and a and a

final EVIfinal EVI value between 1 and 7 value between 1 and 7

(7 is most vulnerable)(7 is most vulnerable) Profiles identify problemsProfiles identify problems 80% of indicators have to be evaluated for 80% of indicators have to be evaluated for

validityvalidity

Indicators ScoreRisk Exposure (REI) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7# Years between droughts >30 20-30 10-19 5-9 3-4 1-22 <1# Years between cyclones >31 20-31 10-20 5-10 3-5 1-23 <2Intrinsic Resilience (IRI)Extrinsic Resilience (EDI)% Endemicity known species 0 0.1-2 2-5 5+# Endangered species 1 1-5 6-10 11-15 >15

4. Calculating and outputs4. Calculating and outputsInput Screen

Details of CountryOperator / affiliationGeneral Country Statistics

Weighting & CalculationRisk Exposure (REI) Score Weighting Confidence# Years between droughts 3 1# Years between cyclones 5 1Intrinsic Resilience (IRI) 2 5Extrinsic Resilience (EDI)% Endemicity known species 4 1# Endangered species 5 1

REI = 3.32

RI = 5.03

19/27

15/20

ReportsLevel 1 Overall EVI = 2.45 [Confidence]Level 2 REI, IRI & EDI also M, G, B, A Level 3 Profile of each indicator

OutputsOutputs

Tuvalu

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1

4

7

10

13

16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37

40

43

46

Indi

cato

r

Score

Tuvalu’sProfile

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5. Developing the EVI5. Developing the EVI 1998 First Design and pilot data1998 First Design and pilot data 1999 Think Tank for peer review1999 Think Tank for peer review

– Approach was goodApproach was good– Changes in indicators and some in modelChanges in indicators and some in model– Testing required and 3 criteria to be passed for the Testing required and 3 criteria to be passed for the

EVI to be technically acceptableEVI to be technically acceptable– To be useful, EVI must be made globalTo be useful, EVI must be made global

2000 Revised design, collect Pacific Data2000 Revised design, collect Pacific Data 2001-2 Globalising, setting indicators, 100 2001-2 Globalising, setting indicators, 100

country database, testingcountry database, testing

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Countries involved (40)Countries involved (40)Invited to Geneva Meeting:Invited to Geneva Meeting: Australia, Bangladesh, Australia, Bangladesh,

Bolivia, Botswana, Brasil, Costa Rica, Denmark, Bolivia, Botswana, Brasil, Costa Rica, Denmark, Greece, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Kenya, Kyrgyz Greece, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Kenya, Kyrgyz Republic, Maldives, Malta, Nepal, New Zealand, Republic, Maldives, Malta, Nepal, New Zealand, Norway, Philippines, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Philippines, Singapore, Switzerland, Thailand (23). Thailand (23).

Secured to 80%:Secured to 80%: Cook Is, Fiji, FSM, Kiribati, Cook Is, Fiji, FSM, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, PNG, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, PNG, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Trinidad & Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Trinidad & Tobago (14). Tobago (14).

Part of data:Part of data: Mauritius, Malta, St. Lucia (3). Mauritius, Malta, St. Lucia (3).

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What can you do?What can you do?

Help with the 100 country databaseHelp with the 100 country database

Choose an indicatorChoose an indicator Search for published dataSearch for published data Convert to EVI formatConvert to EVI format Plot values (determine distribution)Plot values (determine distribution) Help us to set levelsHelp us to set levels