warning this presentation contains detailed descriptions of fights, rapes, and road accidents
TRANSCRIPT
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WARNING
THIS PRESENTATION CONTAINS DETAILED
DESCRIPTIONS OF FIGHTS, RAPES, AND ROAD
ACCIDENTS
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Why you always wanted to devote your career to sequence analysis,
but never fully realised it until today
David Clarke
School of PsychologyUniversity of Nottingham
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Research students & new researchersConsider this approach for your thesis. It may give you new ways to answer your question, or new questions that cannot be answered with other methods. I am happy to help.
Established researchers Do you want to collaborate on projects where this approach can add a new dimension?
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The rationale
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Of all truths relating to phenomena, the most valuable to us are those which relate to the order of their succession. On a knowledge of these is founded every reasonable anticipation of future facts, and whatever power we possess of influencing those facts to our advantage.
John Stuart Mill, 1851
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Motor Skill Model
Perception
Translation
Motorresponses
Changes in outside world
Motivation,goal
SOCIAL SKILL
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INDIVIDUAL PSYCHOLOGY
I O
Non-
? ?
SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY
'
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Sequence analysis can go where experiments cannot…
news, biography, case-study, history, careers, relationships, wars - any area where the ‘causes’ cannot be manipulated for one reason or another.
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Problems as ‘Game Trees’
to
time
Past Future
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Basic procedure
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Time
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 t6 t7
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a j p x b
Discrete Event, Continuous Time
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a j p x b
Discrete Event, Continuous Time
a a p q r
Discrete Event, Fixed Time
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a j p x b
Discrete Event, Continuous Time
a a p q r
Discrete Event, Fixed Time
p j a q r z a c i
Discontinuous Event, Event Timei.e. Pure (Mere?) Sequence
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Stream of events through time
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‘Parsing’ or unitising(Special concepts and
techniques apply)
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a j p i ax
Classification
(Crucial step - special concepts and techniques apply)
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a j p i ax
aj transitionjp transition
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a j p i ax
a
b
c
d
.
.
.
.z
a b c d . . . . . . . . . . z SEQUITURS
ANTECEDENTS
b c
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• Contingency test (eg 2) shows rows and columns interact statistically, so there is a non-random sequence here.
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• Significantly over-represented transitions can be picked out, and presented in a flow diagram.
• Contingency test (eg 2) shows rows and columns interact statistically, so there is a non-random sequence here.
A
B
C
D
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A few examples
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SEQUENCE ANALYSIS OF COURTSHIP BEHAVIOR
IN THE DIMORPHIC JUMPING SPIDER MAEVIA
INCLEMENS(ARANEAE, SALTICIDAE)
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START
END
Attracted
Responsible
Fulfilled
Confident
Content
Close
Accepted
Trusting
Ashamed
Angry
Restless
Passive
Anxious
Rejected
Lonely
Confused
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APPLICATIONS INCLUDE
• Road accidents
• Violent incidents
• Family breakdown
• Human-computer interaction
• Escaping from fires
• Military operations
• Economic forecasting
• Restorative justice
• School disruption
• Anorexia nervosa
• Rape & sexual assault
• Mining safety
• Language acquisition
• Train & plane crashes
• Depression
• Voice disorders
• Stress
• Counselling
• Eye disease
• Occupational selection
• Automatic classification
• Drug abuse
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But then the real fun starts …
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Knots in chains
The problem of ‘higher order’ sequences
A-B-C
A-B-D
(A-B, B-C, B-D)
A B
C
D
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A
B
C
DE
A-B-CD-B-E
(A-B, B-C, D-B, B-E)
A-B-CD-B-E
A-B-E - wrongD-B-C - wrong
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A
B
C
DE
A-B-CD-B-E
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A-B-C-D * E-B-C-F * G-H-C-I * J-H-C-K(AB, BC, CD, EB, CF, GH, HC, CI, JH, CK)
A
B
C
D
E F
G HI
JK
Gives 4 correct sequences and 12 others besides: ABCF, ABCI, ABCK, etc, etc.
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A
B
C
D
E F
G
H
I
JK
A-B-C-D * E-B-C-F * G-H-C-I * J-H-C-K
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ZERO ORDER
Days to is for they have proposed I the it material of are its go studies the our of the following not over situation if the greater.
FIRST ORDER
Goes down here is not large feet are the happy days and so what is dead weight that many were constructed the channel was.
THIRD ORDER
We are going to see him is not correct to chuckle loudly and depart for home.
George Miller, 1951
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Training Data
Mean
Entropy
(bits per
symbol)
Order
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HOMOGENEITYThe probabilities which link events are the same in different sequences
STATIONARITYThe probabilities which link events are constant - they do not ‘drift’ over time
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Detailed examples
Pub fights
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Schematic basis for the Logical Pathway Model.
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The simplified forward empirical pathway map (cut-off pf = .15). All numbers in parentheses following an event refer to the percentage of the total number of incidents that involved that event.
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The logical pathway model for the reported violent incidents.
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Time-interval analysis(Log-survivor function analysis)
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1 2 3 40
%Intervals
>T
100
T
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1 2 3 40
%Intervals
>T
Log %Intervals
>T
100
T
T
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1 2 3 40
Clumped Over-spaced Bursts & Pauses
%Intervals
>T
Log %Intervals
>T
100
T
T
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The log percentage survival without reoccurrence for initial incidents over a period
of 26 weeks.
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The log percentage survival without reoccurrence for initial incidents over a period of 15 days.
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Rape
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The incident has to be divided into ‘blocks’ or phases to avoid ‘looping’, caused by common recurring events
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• • • X • • X • • • • • • X • • • • • • • • • • • X • X
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• • • X • • X • • • • • • X • • • • • • • • • • • X • X
X
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Phase DescriptionA Events leading up to the victim being alerted to the offender.B Events between the victim being alerted to the offender and the offender making
first physical contact with the victim.C Events between first physical contact and penetration occurring (penetration was
defined as digital, genital or oral).D Events between first penetration and last withdrawal.E Events between last withdrawal and when the offender last contacts the victim
physically.F Events between last physical contact and the last sighting of the offender (also
included hearing the offender leave the scene).G Events between the offender escaping and the end of the statement.
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0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00
Victimengages in
own behaviour
Victimfeels/sensessomeone inthe vicinity
Victim isalerted to
the offender
Victim hearsa (unusual)
noise
Victimignores the
noise ordisturbance
VB6
START
END
Bedroom rapes, all cases, until victim notices offender.
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0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00
Offender isverbally
aggressive
Victimconfronted by
offender
Victimspots aweapon
Victim isalerted toOffender
Victim isscared
Offender gainsphysicalcontrol
Victimscreams
Offenderapproaches
victim
Victimattempts to
escape
Victim fallsover
involuntary
Offenderengages in an
aggressivephysical attack
Single bedroom rapes, from victim’s first awareness of offender until first physical contact
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0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00
Offenderpulls atvictimsclothing
Offenderfeels/gropes
victim
Offenderundresses the
victimaggressively
Offendercontrols thevictim witha weapon
Offenderattempts to
penetrate thevictim genitally
Offenderdemands the
victim removesan item ofclothing
Offenderverbally
controls thevictim
aggressively
Victimscreams
Offenderreplies
aggressively
Offenderpositions himself
sexually
Offenderpenetratesthe victimgenitally
Offendermoves
close to thevictim
VictimResists
Offenderphysically
controls thevictim
Offenderreassuresthe victim
Victimasks the
offender aquestion
Offenderdemand s
victim movesto a location
Victimcomplies
Victim isscared
Single bedroom rapes, from first physical contact until first penetration
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0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00
Offender asks apersonalquestion
Victim repliesabout the situation
they are in.e.g. alone
Offenderenquiresabout thesituation
Victim replies toa personalquestion
e.g. her name
Offenderasks for an
objecte.g. money
Victimdeclares
situational facte.g. no money
Offenderexpresseshow he is
feeling
Victimasks the
offender aquestion
Victimprovides an
explanation inresponse to a
question
Multiple bedroom rapes, from first physical contact until first penetration - speech
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0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00
Offenderpulls atvictimsclothing
Offender kissesthe victim
Offender positionshimself sexually
Offendertouches/feelsthe victims
body
Offendermoves closerto the victim
Offenderundresseshimself
Offenderpositions the
victim sexually
Offenderpenetratesthe victimgenitally
Multiple bedroom rapes, from first physical contact until first penetration - sexual behaviour
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0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00
Offender makesa sexual
statement aboutthe victim
OG14
Offenderdemands that thevictim moves to a
particularlocation
Offenderwithdrawssexually
Offendermoves
away fromthe victim
Offenderpositions the
victim sexually
Victim makesa statementabout thesituation
Offenderphysically
controls thevictim
END
Multiple bedroom rapes, from first penetration until last withdrawal—control and reorientation
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0.25<p<0.33 0.33<p<0.5 0.5<p<0.75 0.75<p<1.00
Offenderattempts to kiss
the victim
Victim isscared
Offenderstimulates the
victim genitally
Offenderengages incunnilingus
Victimresists theoffender
VC2
Victim is renderedphysicallyimmobile
Offenderphysically forces
the victim tomanipulate his
genitals
Offenderpenetratesthe victimgenitally
Offenderpositionshimselfsexually
Multiple bedroom rapes, from first penetration until last withdrawal—sexual behaviour
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Road accidents
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Genetic algorithms etc...
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Example rules
(PULLOVER | (VEHICLE2 < 2.88))(FAILSTN > (TYPE > WEATHER))
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Meaning of rules
The right-turner changes lane fromleft to right prior to the turningmanoeuvre
ORthe colliding vehicle has lessthan four wheels
The Turner fails to notice a vehicleor pedestrian
ANDthe Turner is turning off alarger roadORthe Turner is turning onto alarger road in poor weather
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Accuracy of rule pair
Rule Status Injury Damage-only
Total
Both True 9 (82%) 2 11Mixed 11 (48%) 12 23
Both False 8 (19%) 35 43
All cases 28 (36%) 49 77
2 = 16.99, df = 2, p < 0.001
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Season is Winter ?
Fails to notice other
road user ?
Complex junction ?
Injurious 10 : 7
Injurious
5 : 3
Minor
7 : 42
Minor 0 : 4
Yes (12)No (78)
Yes (21)No (57)
Yes (17)No (4) Yes (8) No (49)
Injurious 10:2
Collider on two wheels
or on foot?
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The ‘structured judgement’ method...
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Pathways from problem descriptions to generalised explanations and to intervention
Single case Multiple cases
Description (a) Description (A)
Explanation (b) Explanation (B)
Intervention (c) Intervention (C)
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Pathways from problem descriptions to generalised explanations and to intervention
Single case Multiple cases
Description (a) Description (A)
Explanation (b) Explanation (B)
Intervention (c) Intervention (C)
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Pathways from problem descriptions to generalised explanations and to intervention
Single case Multiple cases
Description (a) Description (A)
Explanation (b) Explanation (B)
Intervention (c) Intervention (C)
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Data Entry Screen (a)
A BGrade of info.
Independent WitnessesVehicles ExaminedSketch MapPhotographsLicence Records
SlightSeverity
9/12/97Date
TuesdayDay
18:15Time 24hrs
A classRoad Type
30Speed Limit
RuralUrban
Area
Darkness, streetlamps litLighting
1- Yamaha RXS1002- Peugeot 405
Types of Vehicles
yes, bothDrivers Familiar ?
N/APillion age,sex
2- DWDC, failure to reportan accident
Charges
It was early in the evening on a damp night in Winter. It was dark andstreetlamps were lit. It had been raining lightly for between five and tenminutes. The rider (M,26) of a small Yamaha motorcycle (1) was travellingalong a busy and wide urban A road with a 30mph limit. The road was wideenough for two lines of traffic in queues, and traffic was moving very slowly.Rider 1 travelled through some traffic lights on green at a crossroads, andwas almost immediately confronted by stationary queuing traffic on the lefthand side of the road ahead. He also saw that there was no traffic comingfrom the other direction, as this had stopped for a set of red lights around200 yards distant. Rider 1 elected to use the opposite carriageway to
Prose Account
Map
Minimum Set of Explanations
noneAvoiding Action Attempted
Police: “Why didn’t you see the bike?”
Driver 2: “I didn’t expect to see anything - it was the oncoming traffic’s lane.”
Police: “Did you check your wing mirrors?”
Comments / Quotes/Special Factors
Primary blame Driver/Rider 2
12345678
910111213141516
1718192021222324
252627282930
CM Rider 1 12345678
910111213141516
1718192021222324
252627282930
CM Other
26Rider 1 Age
26Driver/Rider 2 Age
Owner riderVehicle 1 Owner
T JunctionCrossroadsTraffic LightsL/H BendR/H BendRoundaboutDual carriageway
HillcrestDipSliproadOther…
Road Features
NonePillion?
M F
M F
OvertakingViolation / Error type
N/A
PF CF1 CF2 CF3 CF4
Active Passive
N/A
Turns Shunts
Alc. Level
Test Pass Date
98Motorcycle cc
FullLicence Type
yesno
DOB Verified?
0Years STP
?Days STP
Rural Bend Errors Shunt errors
Helmet (BSS Approved)Visor upVisor downFullOpenJacket
TrousersBootsDaytime lightsReflective Clothing
BHP
n/kLength of Ownership
Purpose of Journey Other Riders?
PresentSpeed cameras/Police presence
yesFiltering?
Known Modifications?
DampWeather
DampRoad Conditions
PresentSpecial Road Conditions/Environment
TraditionalMotorcycle Category
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It was early in the evening on a damp night in Winter. It was dark and streetlamps were lit. It had been raining lightly for between five and ten minutes. The rider (M,26) of a small Yamaha motorcycle (1) was travelling along a busy and wide urban A road with a 30mph limit. The road was wide enough for two lines of traffic in queues, and traffic was moving very slowly. Rider 1 travelled through some traffic lights on green at a crossroads, and was almost immediately confronted by stationary queuing traffic on the left hand side of the road ahead. He also saw that there was no traffic coming from the other direction, as this had stopped for a set of red lights around 200 yards distant. Rider 1 elected to use the opposite carriageway to overtake the queuing traffic ahead, and pulled out onto the offside to do this, passing at a speed of about 10mph. He started passing the traffic and was about to overtake a Peugeot 405 (2) that was queuing, when its driver (M,26), decided that he would U turn into a layby on the opposite side to pick up some chips from a shop there. His car was very nearly stationary, and although he looked in his rear view mirror, he did not check his offside door mirror or glance over his shoulder to check his blind spot. In addition, he only indicated his intention to turn once he’d already started to do so. The motorcycle rider had no chance to avoid a collision, ran into the driver’s side door of the car and was knocked off his machine, sustaining minor injuries.
Driver 2 claimed that he had not looked in his side mirror as he thought that the opposing lane was clear, and hadn’t considered that it might be used for overtaking purposes by any vehicle behind him. He was charged with driving without due care and attention, and failing to report an accident; he’d not reported it to the police because he thought the motorcyclist wasn’t badly injured. The results of these charges were not recorded.
Prose Account
Map
Data Entry Screen (b)
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A BGrade of info.
Independent Witnesses
Vehicles Examined
Sketch Map
Photographs
Licence Records
SlightSeverity
9/12/97Date
TuesdayDay
18:15Time 24hrs
A classRoad Type
30Speed Limit
Rural
Urban
Area
Darkness, streetlamps litLighting
1- Yamaha RXS100
2- Peugeot 405
Types of Vehicles
yes, bothDrivers Familiar ?
N/APillion age,sex
2- DWDC, failure to report
an accident
Charges
It was early in the evening on a damp night in Winter. It was dark and
streetlamps were lit. It had been raining lightly for between five and ten
minutes. The rider (M,26) of a small Yamaha motorcycle (1) was travelling
along a busy and wide urban A road with a 30mph limit. The road was wide
enough for two lines of traffic in queues, and traffic was moving very slowly.
Rider 1 travelled through some traffic lights on green at a crossroads, and
was almost immediately confronted by stationary queuing traffic on the left
hand side of the road ahead. He also saw that there was no traffic coming
from the other direction, as this had stopped for a set of red lights around
200 yards distant. Rider 1 elected to use the opposite carriageway to
Prose Account
Map
Driver 2:
C2.1 Poor observation; didn’t look in relevant direction (rear offside)
C3 No signalling
Minimum Set of Explanations
noneAvoiding Action Attempted
Police: “Why didn’t you see the bike?”
Driver 2: “I didn’t expect to see anything - it was the oncoming traffic’s lane.”
Police: “Did you check your wing mirrors?”
Comments / Quotes/
Special Factors
Primary blameDriver/Rider 2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
CM Rider 1 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
CM Other
26Rider 1 Age
26Driver/Rider 2 Age
Owner riderVehicle 1 Owner
T Junction
Crossroads
Traffic Lights
L/H Bend
R/H Bend
Roundabout
Dual carriageway
Hillcrest
Dip
Sliproad
Other…
Road Features
NonePillion?
M F
M F
OvertakingViolation / Error type
N/A
5PF 14ACF1 9ACF2 CF3 CF4
Active Passive
N/A
Turns Shunts
N/AAlc. Level
Test Pass Date
98Motorcycle cc
FullLicence Type
yes
no
DOB Verified?
0Years STP
?Days STP
Rural Bend Errors Shunt errors
Helmet (BSS Approved)
Visor up
Visor down
Full
Open
Jacket
Trousers
Boots
Daytime lights
Reflective Clothing
BHP
n/kLength of Ownership
WorkPurpose of Journey AloneOther Riders?
PresentSpeed cameras/
Police presenceyesFiltering?
Known Modifications?
DampWeather
DampRoad Conditions
PresentSpecial Road
Conditions/Environment
TraditionalMotorcycle Category
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3.3 Initial typology of overtaking
The next stage in the analysis was the construction of a typology of 10 types of
overtaking accidents based on vehicle manoeuvres:
**
Type 1 A vehicle collides with a vehicle it is overtaking as that vehicle turns right
Type 2 A head on collision with a vehicle travelling in the opposite direction
Type 3 Side swiping a vehicle which is being overtaken
Type 4 Hitting a vehicle either in front or behind when returning to a gap after
overtaking
Type 5 Going out of control after returning to the nearside following an overtake
Type 5.1 Going out of control while carrying out the overtake
Type 6 An overtaker collides with a vehicle making a turning or crossing movement
at a junction
Type 7 A vehicle overtaking on the nearside (undertaking) hits another
Type 8 Resulting from avoiding action following another driver’s risky overtaking
manoeuvre
Type 0 Unclassifiable/miscellaneous
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Table 9 : Top 10 effective countermeasures for inexperienced drivers at fault
Measure Frequency % of cases
Avoid overtaking a vehicle already travelling at or
near the speed limit
42 29.8
Look specifically for signs of junctions ahead when
about to overtake
42 29.8
Avoid overtaking when approaching a bend, even if
the road appears clear
32 22.7
Look specifically at the indicators of vehicles about to
be overtaken
31 21.9
Consider why a vehicle ahead is slowing down ; could
it be about to turn ?
28 19.9
Be realistic in the assessment of the time needed to
pass vehicles ahead, especially lorries
21 14.9
Avoid overtaking against a solid white line, even if
the road ahead appears clear
16 11.3
Avoid locking wheels by combined steering and
heavy braking, especially if the road is damp
14 9.9
Look specifically for dips and hill crests in the road
ahead that could be obscuring vehicles
13 9.2
Avoid returning abruptly to the nearside following an
overtake
13 9.2
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Accidents at night with young drivers often aren’t a result of a lack of light, but are a result of voluntary risk taking (or ‘attitudes’).
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Hour (24hrs)
% proportion
Excess speed
Reckless
Excess alcohol
Risky Overtaking
Deliberate Close Following
Light Jumping
TWOC
16 12 18 24
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Motorcycle riders are seldom to blame in car v. motorcycle accidents at junctions. The typical fault is a driver failing to see an approaching motorcycle which is in plain view.
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A driver fails to see a motorcyclist in a ROWV accident
It was early in the afternoon on a fine Spring day. The rider (M,44) of a Honda CBR1000 motorcycle was travelling along an unclassified urban road at around the 30mph limit. According to witnesses, he was not going above the speed limit and was displaying daytime lights. As he approached a junction ahead on the offside, he could see a Vauxhall Astra (2), driven by (F,63) waiting to turn right at the give way line to travel in the same direction as him. As he got to within 20 metres of the junction mouth, the car driver began to emerge, making her right turn. The motorcyclist braked heavily and steered nearside in an effort to get his bike between the nearside kerb and the turning car before he hit it. However, he was unsuccessful in this, and he hit the nearside of the car as it turned, causing a severe injury to his right hand that required two operations and several months off work. The Astra driver claimed that she had looked left, but had simply not seen the motorcyclist, despite the fact that visibility was good and the rider was displaying lights. She was charged with driving without due care and attention.
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Older drivers have a problem seeing motorcyclists at junctions (so-called ‘Looked but didn’t see’ or LBDNS accidents…
y = -3E-15x 6 + 5E-12x 5 - 3E-09x 4 + 3E-07x 3 + 5E-05x 2 - 0.0107x + 1.7563
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 100 200 300 400 500
Age Range/Distribution(total no. of observations)
RatiosScatter Plot of LBDNSwith All Other Errors
Poly. (Scatter Plot ofLBDNS with All OtherErrors)16-20
21-25
26-30
31-35 36-40
41-45
46-50
51-55
56-60
61-65
66-70
71-75
76-80
81-85
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‘Filtering’ quotes from drivers…
• Driver: “…there was nothing by rights that should have
come that side of my car.”
• Driver : “... he was on the wrong side of the road.”
• Driver : “There could be nothing coming from behind
me because the car and lorry to my rear were
stationary”
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‘Matrix forecasting’
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The end