washington area economy: performance and outlook

August7,2020

WashingtonAreaEconomy:PerformanceandOutlook

CenterforRegionalAnalysisSchar SchoolofPolicyandGovernment

GeorgeMasonUniversity

U.S.GrossDomesticProduct

Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis(SeasonallyAdjusted,Chained2012Dollars)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020$10,000

$11,000

$12,000

$13,000

$14,000

$15,000

$16,000

$17,000

$18,000

$19,000

$20,000

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10QuarterlyChange RealGDP(Billions)

%

Q22019-Q22020-9.5%

AnnualChangeinU.S.PayrollJobsMonth-Over-Year

-20500

-15500

-10500

-5500

-500

4500

9500

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis

Aug2019–Aug2020-11,599M

-21000

-16000

-11000

-6000

-1000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

USPayrollJobChangeMonth-to-Month

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(SeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis

Jul2020–Aug2020+1.76M

115000

120000

125000

130000

135000

140000

145000

150000

155000

-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1-mo.change(inthousands)

totalpayrolljobs(inmillions)

U.S.PayrollJobs


SinceMay2010+9.7M

Since2019(12-mo.∆)-11.4M

Jul– Aug2020

(1mo.∆)+1.76M

U.S.PayrollJobChangebySector12-MonthNetChange(Jul2020)

81

-298

-414

-591

-288

-309

-124

-733

-856

-4,001

-1,048

-1,435

-1,229

-4500.0 -4000.0 -3500.0 -3000.0 -2500.0 -2000.0 -1500.0 -1000.0 -500.0 0.0 500.0

FederalGovt.Information

Transp.&Util.OtherServices

WholesaleTradeConstruction

FinancialManufacturingRetailTrade

Leisure&Hosp.State&LocalGovtProf.&Bus.Svcs

Educ&HealthSvcs

total=-11.2M


RankedbySizein2019 (000s)

27

-15

38

149

-5

20

21

26

258

592

274

170

215

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

FederalGovt.Information

Transp.&Util.OtherServices




Educ&HealthSvcs(000s)RankedbySizein2019


U.S.PayrollJobChangebySector1-MonthNetChange(Jul2020)

total=+1.8M

-16%

21%

61%

22%

63%

33%

46%

59%

52%

32%

27%

46%

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

InformationTransp.&Util.OtherServices




Educ&HealthSvcs(000s)RankedbySizein2019


U.S.PayrollJobChangebySectorPercentageofJobGainssinceAprilLosses

(uptoJuly)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

U.S.UnemploymentRate

%


Jul202010.2%

Jul– Aug1-mo.∆- 0.9%

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

U.S.Unemployment

Jul16.5%

U-6

UR

LFPR

Jul10.2%

Jul61.5%


60.060.561.061.562.062.563.063.5

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Jul2019-Jul2020(12-mo.)change:

U-6+9.6%UR+6.5%LFPR-1.6%

175

1,175

2,175

3,175

4,175

5,175

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Source:DepartmentofLabor(SeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis

Aug1

S.A.+1.19M

2007-20average407.7k

(000s)

InitialClaimsforUnemployment4-WeekMovingAverage(2007-2020)

200

1200

2200

3200

4200

5200

6200

7200

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Source:DepartmentofLabor(SeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis

(000s)

InitialClaimsforUnemployment4-WeekMovingAverage(2011-2020)

Aug1

S.A.+1.19M

2011-20average392k

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

AverageWeeklyEarnings

RealAverageWeeklyEarnings(1982-84dollars)

12-month%change(MOTYC)

Jul2020

AvgHourlyWages+4.8%

AvgWeeklyEarnings+5.4%

RealAvgWeeklyEarnings+4.7%

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis

AverageWeeklyEarningsU.S.,TotalPrivate,AcrossallIndustries

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

QOTYC Index

LaborProductivityNonfarmbusiness,seasonallyadjusted


Baseyear(100)=2012

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

ConsumerConfidence

Source:TheConferenceBoard,GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis

ExpectationsIndex

PresentSituationIndex

Jul2020Pres.=94.2Exp.=91.5

(1985=100)

AnnualConsumerPrices2001-2019YearoverYear%Change


-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

42001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

12-month%change

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

12-month%change

MonthlyConsumerPrices2001– 2020


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

30-Yr

10-YrTreas

Fed

InterestRates2001- 2019

Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis,GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis

%

-3.50

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1953195519571959196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013201520172019

10-year/1-yearTreasuryYieldConstantMaturityRateYieldSpread(1953-Present)

NotSeasonallyAdjusted

Source:FederalReserveEconomicData(FRED),FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis

%

Note:horizontalaxis“tickmarks”reflectJune1ofeachyear

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

ExistingHomeSales

NewHomeSales

U.S.HomeSalesNewandExisting(2013-Present)

(000s)

Source:U.S.Census(NewHomeSales)[SeasonallyAdjustedAnnualRate],NationalAssociationofRealtors(ExistingHomeSales)

(000s)

ExistingHomeSales12-monthchangeJun19– Jun20

- 11.3%

NewHomeSales12-monthchangeJun19– Jun20

+6.5%

ChangeinU.S.PersonalConsumptionExpenditures

5.1

2.5 2.63.2

3.8 3.63.1

2.2

-0.2

-1.3

1.7 1.91.5 1.5

2.9

3.7

2.7 2.5 2.6

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

62000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis

1.9

-0.1

-2.5

2.6

1.62.2

1.8

2.52.9

1.62.2

2.92.3

-4

-2

0

2

4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

%

Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis,GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis

U.S.GDPAnnual%Change2007– 2018

%

TheWashingtonEconomy

ElementsofPopulationChangeWashingtonMSA

48,235 49,169 47,989 47,150 46,096 43,886 42,616 40,778 39,384

24,87239,715 36,871 43,070 47,495

40,581 44,760 39,62122,977

21,5176,843

4,495

-24,741 -27,907 -31,010 -21,543 -30,581 -29,748

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

NaturalIncrease NetInternationalMigration NetDomesticMigration

1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.52%

PopulationChange

Source:U.S.CensusBureau,PopulationEstimatesProgram(2018estimates)

-325-300-275-250-225-200-175-150-125-100-75-50-2502550751001251501991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

AnnualJobChangeWashingtonMSA(1991-2020)


employees,inthousands

AnnualJobChangeWashingtonMSA(2012-2020)

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,200

3,300

3,400

3,500

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

12-monthnetchange totalemployees


thousands thousands

Jun2020Total:3.10M

Jun19-Jun20- 271k

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020DC SMD NoVA DCMSA

AnnualJobChangeWashingtonMSA,DC-SMD-NoVA (2012-2020)



-90

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

301991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020


AnnualJobChangeDistrictofColumbia(1991-2020)


660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

820

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020



thousands thousands

Jun2020Total:740k

AnnualJobChangeDistrictofColumbia(2012-2020)

Jun19-Jun20- 58.6k

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

401991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020


employees,inthousandsAnnualJobChange

SuburbanMaryland(1991-2020)

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

12-monthnetchange totalemployeesSource:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis

thousands thousands

Jun2020Total:941.8k

AnnualJobChangeSuburbanMaryland(2012-2020)

Jun19-Jun20- 31.1k

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

-140.0

-120.0

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020



thousands thousands

Jun2020Total:1.42M

AnnualJobChangeNorthernVirginia(2012-2020)

Jun19-Jun20

- 116.6k

EmploymentCompositionbySectorWashingtonMSAJun2020

1.7%2.0%2.1%2.3%

5.1%5.2%

6.4%7.9%

7.1%10.5%

11.9%13.0%

24.7%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

ManufacturingWholesaleTrade

Transportation&UtilitiesInformation

FinancialActivitesConstruction

OtherServicesRetailTrade

Leisure&HospitalityState&LocalGovernment

FederalGovernmentEducation&HealthServices

Professional&BusinessServices

JobChangebySectorWashingtonMSA

Jun2019– Jun2020Total=-271k

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

-3.3-1.3

-8.8-4.5-4.9-5.5

-13.1-25.3

-131.7-15.9

4.7-42.0

-19.3

-140.0 -120.0 -100.0 -80.0 -60.0 -40.0 -20.0 0.0 20.0


Transport/UtilitiesInformationFinancial

ConstructionOtherServicesRetailTrade

Leisure&Hosp.State&LocalGovt

FederalGovtEduc&HealthSvcsProf/BusinessSvcs

(RankedbySizein2019)

JobChangebySectorWashingtonMSA

May2020– Jun2020(000s) Total=+69k

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

0.40.80.9

-0.7-2.2

4.93.7

9.036.2

-1.62.63.9

11.1

-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0


Transport/UtilitiesInformationFinancial

ConstructionOtherServicesRetailTrade

Leisure&Hosp.State&LocalGovt

FederalGovtEduc&HealthSvcsProf/BusinessSvcs


-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020640

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

MOTYCTotalJobs

Professional&BusinessServicesWashingtonMSA

(000s)


(000s)

Jun19-Jun20

- 19.3k

600.0

620.0

640.0

660.0

680.0

700.0

720.0

740.0

760.0

780.0

800.0

820.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0Professional, Science & Tech MOTYC Admin Support & Waste Mgmt MOTYC Professional & Business Services Employees (total)


Professional&BusinessServicesWashingtonMSA

(000s) (000s)

FederalGovernmentWashingtonMSA

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysisJun2020total:369.3k

(000s) (000s)

345

350

355

360

365

370

375

380

385

390

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MOTYCTotalJobs

Jun2019–Jun2020+4.7k

FederalSpendingintheWashingtonMSAFiscalYears1980-2019

4.2 5.0 5.8 6.7 7.7 9.0 10.7

11.4

11.5

11.9

12.6

14.6

15.6

16.1

17.9

19.4

20.8

21.7 24.8 27.7

29.3 32.1 37.1 44

.052.6

54.5 57.1

59.167.9 75

.8 80.0

78.0

76.0

70.6 73.1

74.0 78.5 83.5 88.7

82.6

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

|FY80-89=$83.9B|

|FY00-09=$509.5B|

|FY90-99=$191.2B|

($Billions)

Total=$1,569.3Billion

Source:USAspending.gov

|FY10-19=$784.7B|

JobChangebySectorDistrictofColumbia

Jun2019– Jun2020

-0.20.4

-1.2-0.3

-1.6-2.4

1.1-0.8-1.1

-39.4-9.2

-6.93.0

-45.0 -40.0 -35.0 -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0

ManufacturingWholesaleTradeTransp.&Util.ConstructionInformationRetailTrade

State&LocalGovtFinancial

OtherServicesLeisure&Hosp.

Educ&HealthSvcsProf.&Bus.Svcs

FederalGovt.

(000s) Total-58.6k



JobChangebySectorDistrictofColumbia

Jun2020– Jul2020

0.00.00.1

1.0-0.3

0.50.9

-0.10.4

9.7-1.4

-0.22.1

-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

ManufacturingWholesaleTradeTransp.&Util.ConstructionInformationRetailTrade

State&LocalGovtFinancial

OtherServicesLeisure&Hosp.

Educ&HealthSvcsProf.&Bus.Svcs

FederalGovt.


(000s) Total+12.7k(RankedbySizein2019)

JobChangebySectorSuburbanMaryland

Jun2019– Jun2020

-3.0-2.8-2.5

-0.6-0.6

-7.8-2.5

1.1-31.3

-11.2-1.4

-13.4-10.2

-35.0 -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0

InformationWholesaleTradeTransp.&Util.Manufacturing

FinancialOtherServicesConstructionFederalGovt.

Leisure&Hosp.RetailTrade

State&LocalGovtEduc&HealthSvcsProf.&Bus.Svcs

Total:-86.2k


(000s)(RankedbySizein2019)

JobChangebySectorSuburbanMaryland

Jun2020– Jul2020

-0.40.2

0.90.7

0.22.63.0

0.411.3

3.61.1

4.32.7

-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

InformationWholesaleTradeTransp.&Util.Manufacturing

FinancialOtherServicesConstructionFederalGovt.

Leisure&Hosp.RetailTrade

State&LocalGovtEduc&HealthSvcsProf.&Bus.Svcs

Total:+30.6k



JobChangebySectorNorthernVirginia

Jun2019– Jun2020

-0.7-1.0

0.5-5.1

-7.5-1.4

-3.9-0.1

-9.1-54.8

-10.1-23.1

-0.3

-60.0 -50.0 -40.0 -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0



FinancialConstructionFederalGovt.RetailTrade

Leisure&Hosp.State&LocalGovtEduc&HealthSvcsProf.&Bus.Svcs

Total-116.6k



JobChangebySectorNorthernVirginia

Jun2020– Jul2020

0.3-0.2-0.1

1.32.3

-1.01.0

0.05.1

12.8-2.3

4.29.7

-8.0 -5.0 -2.0 1.0 4.0 7.0 10.0 13.0 16.0



FinancialConstructionFederalGovt.RetailTrade

Leisure&Hosp.State&LocalGovtEduc&HealthSvcsProf.&Bus.Svcs

Total+33.1k



2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

Dec2009 Dec2010 Dec2011 Dec2012 Dec2013 Dec2014 Dec2015 Dec2016 Dec2017 Dec2018 Dec2019

Jun2020DC 9.0US 11.1SMD 8.0MSA 8.4NVA 8.7

UnemploymentRatesintheWMSABySub-StateArea

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)

%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

DallasPhoenix

Seattle

Houston

Atlanta

SF-Oakland

LosAngeles

DC NewYork

Miami

Boston

Philadelphia

Detroit

Chicago

Minneapolis

Washington-8.0%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional AnalysisSource:BureauofLaborStatistics(NotSeasonallyAdjusted),GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis

15LargestJobMarketsJobChangeJun2019– Jun2020

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

%

U.S.GDPandWashingtonMSAGRPAnnual%Change2008– 2020

WashingtonMSA

U.S.

Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis,GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis.ChainedDollars

LongcommutesdiminishqualityoflifeProportionofworkerswithtraveltimetoworkof60ormoreminutes

Source:USCensusBureau,2018AmericanCommunitySurvey(TableS0802)

6.2%7.6%

8.2%8.4%8.4%

9.2%9.5%10.0%

11.2%11.3%

14.2%14.7%14.7%

15.5%19.2%

20.7%21.1%21.5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Minneapolis(1,966,186)Phoenix(2,252,077)Denver(1,607,215)Detroit(2,038,659)

Pittsburgh(1,130,004)Dallas(3,791,790)

UnitedStates(154,609,443)Philadelphia(2,709,202)

Houston(3,312,236)Miami(2,992,970)Seattle(2,119,472)Atlanta(2,962,938)Chicago(4,741,646)

LosAngeles(6,673,806)WashingtonDC(3,497,447)SanFrancisco(2,526,639)

NewYork(8,996,152)Boston(1,274,261)

WMATAMetrorail

AverageWeekdayMetrorailRidership12-month%change(2006-2019)

-16%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Metrorail Alexandria Arlington Fairfax DistrictofColumbia

Maryland Virginia Linear(Metrorail)

Source:WashingtonMetropolitanAreaTransitAuthority(WMATA);CenterforRegionalAnalysis

HousingMarketTrends

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Feb2011 Feb2012 Feb2013 Feb2014 Feb2015 Feb2016 Feb2017 Feb2018 Feb2019 Feb2020-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

12-Month%Change EndofMonthInventory

Jun 19-

Jun20

-21.6%

Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata)

Note:Endofmonthinventoryincludes:(1)AllPendingListingsand(2)ActiveListings.

InventoriesofExistingHomesWashingtonMSAMOTYC(2011-2020)

EOMinventory

Jun 201928,78- units

Jun202022,570units

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

12-MonthPercentChangeinInventoriesofExistingHomes

WashingtonMSAMOTYC(2000– 2020)


May– Jun2020

-8.9%

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,0001999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

12-MonthMovingAverage


Jun 20204,843

ExistingHomeSalesWashingtonMSA(DCMetroRegion)

Jan1999– May2020

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20

ExistingHomeSalesWashingtonMSA(DCMetroRegion)

Month-Over-YearChangeFeb2011– May2020


Jun 2020-558

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source:U.S.CensusBureau,GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis

WashingtonMSABuildingPermits2012-2020,Three-MonthMovingAverage

Jun20202,432permitsissued

1,8923-moavg

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

permits inventory

PermitsandInventoriesWashingtonMSA(2010-2020)

Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata);U.S.CensusBureau

ExistingHomeSalesandPermits12-monthmovingaverageofMOTYC%change

WashingtonMSA

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

12-moMOTYCavgpermits 12-moMOTYCavghomesales

Source:GMUCenterforRegionalAnalysis(CRA);RealEstate BusinessIntelligence(RBI)SmartCharts (usingBrightMLSdata);U.S.CensusBureau

MedianHomeSalesPriceWashingtonMSA

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020


Jun2020$440.0k

12-monthmovingaverage(thousandsofdollars)

MedianHomeSalesPriceArlington,AlexandriaCity,andWashingtonMSA

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Arlington AlexandriaCity 12per.Mov.Avg.(WashingtonMSA)

12per.Mov.Avg.(Arlington) 12per.Mov.Avg.(AlexandriaCity)


(thousandsofdollars)

MedianHomeSalesPriceArlington&WashingtonMSAMovingAverages(2000-2020)

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

6502000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

12per.Mov.Avg.(WashingtonMSA) 12per.Mov.Avg.(Arlington)



350

375

400

425

450

475

500

525

550

575

600

625

650

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Arlington Fairfax Loudoun



MedianHomeSalesPriceArlington,FairfaxandLoudouncounties

12-monthmovingaverages|Feb2011– Jun 2020

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Arlington Fairfax Loudoun

ClosedHomeSalesArlington,FairfaxandLoudouncounties

12-monthmovingaverages|Jan2009– Jun 2020


ClosedHom

eSales,ActualValues

MedianSalesPriceWashingtonMSA

Month-Over-Year%Change|Jan2011– Jun 2020

-5.0%

-2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

10.0%

12.5%

15.0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Jun 2020MEDIANsalesprice$440,000

AverageSalesPriceMonth-Over-Year%Change

WashingtonMSA

-7.5%

-5.0%

-2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

10.0%

12.5%

15.0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Jun 2020AVERAGEsalesprice$518,350


DistrictofColumbia

-12%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

21%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




SuburbanMaryland

-15%

-12%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




NorthernVirginia

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020



ActiveListingstoClosedSalesRatio

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

ArlingtonFairfaxLoudounPrinceWilliamDCMontgomeryPrinceGeorge’s


ActiveListingstoClosedSalesRatioGreaterWashingtonDCArea

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Jun 2020ActiveListings 9,281ClosedSales 8,540Listings:Sales 1.09

$500

$550

$600

$650

$700

-5.0%

-2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

10.0%

12.5%

15.0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MOTYC

AverageHomeSalesPrice:SingleFamilyDetached

NorthernVirginia(2011-2020) (000s)


Jun 2020$722kavgSP+4.8%MOTYC

$315

$335

$355

$375

$395

$415

$435

$455

$475

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MOTYC

AverageHomeSalesPrice:SingleFamilyAttached:Townhomes



Jun 2020$489.4kavgSP+1.8%MOTYC

$255

$275

$295

$315

$335

$355

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MOTYC

AverageHomeSalesPrice:SingleFamilyAttached:Condos




$700

$750

$800

$850

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MOTYC

AverageHomeSalesPrice:SingleFamilyDetached

DistrictofColumbia(2011-2020) (000s)


Jun 2020$1.25MavgSP+25.6%MOTYC

$460

$510

$560

$610

$660

$710

$760

$810

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MOTYC

AverageHomeSalesPrice:SingleFamilyAttached:Townhomes

DistrictofColumbia(2011-2020) (000s)



$400

$420

$440

$460

$480

$500

$520

$540

$560

$580

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MOTYC

AverageHomeSalesPrice:SingleFamilyAttached:CondosDistrictofColumbia(2011-2020) (000s)


Jun 2020$537kavgSP-0.6%MOTYC

Thank You

cra.gmu.edu

NOTICEDue to the COVID-19 Pandemic, we are suspending our Outlook for the remainder of 2020 at this time. As economic data become available and we understand better when personal and business activities can begin to move towards normal, we will update projections for national and regional economic performance.

In the meantime, please visit the CRA website for updated information on local housing market performance and other key economic data at:

https://cra.gmu.edu/covid19/

Be Well! Be Safe!

We hope to see you soon.

washington area economy: performance and outlook

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