water demand management training...institute for sustainable futures, uts may 18-19, 2008 switch...

SWITCH Water Demand Management

Training: 2 day workshop

(Second of two SWITCH training sessions)

Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS

May 18-19, 2008 Alexandria, Egypt

This training is led by Professor Stuart White (Director) and Andrea turner (Research Director), of the Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology Sydney. The Institute is at the forefront of demand management

work in Australia and internationally www.isf.uts.edu.au

Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS May 18-19, 2008

SWITCH Water Demand Management Training – 2 day workshop 1

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABOUT THE PRESENTERS

AGENDA

DAY 1

- RECAP ON INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING

- DEMAND FORECASTING

- DEVELOPING AND ANALYSING DEMAND MANAGEMENT OPTIONS

- OUTCOMES FROM NOVEMBER 2007 TRAINING

- DATA NEEDS & AVAILABILITY

- NON REVENUE WATER

DAY 2

- PRACTICAL APPLICATION

- FURTHER DATA COLLATION & ANALYSIS

- RESIDENTIAL SURVEY

GLOSSARY OF TERMS

(REFER TO INDIVIDUAL FOLDERS ON CD FOR PRESENTATION MATERIALS)



ABOUT THE PRESENTERS Professor Stuart White is the Director of the Institute for Sustainable Futures, part of the University of Technology, Sydney, Australia. He has worked and undertaken research in sustainability for over twenty years, specialising in the use of least cost planning/integrated resource planning for water companies and the advocacy, design, implementation and evaluation of water efficiency/demand management programs. At the Institute, and previously as Director of Preferred Options (Asia-Pacific) Pty Ltd, he designed or implemented three of Australia’s largest water efficiency programs. He has been involved in many expert panels in Australia on water and other sustainability issues. He is currently the co-leader of the International Water Association (IWA) Task Force on the International Demand Management Framework and has been asked to present on numerous occasions both in Australia and Internationally on demand management and water planning issues.

Andrea Turner is a Research Director at the Institute and a chartered civil engineer with a postgraduate degree in environmental engineering. She has over fifteen years engineering and research experience in water, wastewater, stormwater and environmental assessment, having worked in the UK, Hong Kong and Australia. Since joining the Institute in 2001, Andrea has managed and been the key researcher on a number of urban water planning projects. These have involved the application of the principles of integrated resource planning. Andrea has been involved in all stages of IRP including urban and regional water demand forecasting using sector and end use approaches, option development (demand management, supply and source substitution/reuse) and option cost/benefit analysis. She has also developed pilot studies for demand management programs and evaluated implemented programs including one of the largest residential programs of its type in the world. She has worked with many of the major water companies across Australia on demand management and water planning. She has also developed guidelines and training material for the International Water Association and Water Services Association of Australia and presented at numerous national and international conferences on these topics.



Dr Sam Kayaga is Programme Manager for the SWITCH project at the Water Engineering Development Centre at Loughborough University in the UK. He is a water/sanitation engineer specialising in management of urban water and sanitation services. He previously worked for National Water & Sewerage Corporation (NWSC) of Uganda for a period of 18 years, as a water engineer/manager in six towns of Uganda, and later as principal/chief engineer in charge of maintenance, for all NWSC service areas. Since 2002, when he joined WEDC, he has been carrying out research, consultancy and post graduate training in the field of water and sanitation services, He is a specialist in institutional, financial, and management issues in the rural and urban water and sanitations services of low- and middle-income countries. He has many publications available from WEDC, including:

Maximizing the Benefits from Water and Environmental Sanitation Maximizing the Benefits from Water and Environmental Sanitation Serving All Urban Consumers: A marketing approach to water services in low-

and middle-income countries - Book 5

Further resources on topics and examples covered in the training can be found at: www.isf.uts.edu.au or contact: The Institute for Sustainable Futures +612 9514 4950 +612 9514 4941 [email protected]



AGENDA

DAY 1 Time Agenda item Description

9:00-9:30 Introductions & recap on integrated resource planning (IRP)

• Introductions – presenters & participants • Overview of workshop objectives • IRP - What is it & why use it? • The “5 step” process

9.30-11:00 Forecasting water demand

• Why is accurate demand forecasting important?

• What is end use analysis & why use it? • Steps 1 & 2 of the “5 step” process

MORNING TEA 11:00 - 11:30

11:30-13:00 Developing & analysing demand management options

• What is demand management & why do it? • Steps 3 to 5 of the “5 step” process

LUNCH 13:00 – 14:00

14:00-15.30 Data needs and availability

• Outcomes of November 2007 training • Stakeholder analysis • Data needs • Data gaps to be filled • Discussion on data issues

AFTERNOON TEA 15:30 - 16:00

16:00- 17:00 Non revenue water • Issues and IWA work on non revenue water

DINNER



DAY 2 Time Agenda

item Description

9:00-10:30 Demand forecasting

• Practical application - tutorial on demand forecasting

MORNING TEA 10.30 - 11:00

11:00-13.00 Options • Practical application – tutorial on designing options

• Practical application - tutorial on analysing options

LUNCH 13:00 – 14:00

14:00-15.30 Further data collation & analysis

• Discussion on further data needs • Discussion on developing a residential survey

AFTERNOON TEA 15:30 – 16:00

16:00-17.00 What next? • What else is needed? • Where do we go from here? • Evaluation & feedback on the training

Thank you

Training Location: Le Metropole Hotel Alexandria 52 Saad Zaghloul Street, Raml Station, Alexandria, Egypt Email: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Web Site: www.cedare.org



DAY 1:

Recap on Integrated Resource Planning



INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLANNING (IRP):

THE 5 STEP PROCESS

1

SWITCHWater Demand Management

Training:A 2-day workshop

May 18-19, 2008Alexandria, Egypt

Stuart White and Andrea TurnerInstitute for Sustainable Futures

2

IntroductionsThe Institute for Sustainable Futures

– Stuart White– Andrea Turner

WEDC– Sam Kayaga

CEDARE– ………

Participants– ………

2

3

Overview of 2 day workshopDAY 1:

- Recap on Integrated Resource Planning- The 5 Step Process- Forecasting water demand- Developing & analysing demand management options

- Data needs and availability- Outcomes from November 2007 training- Data gaps to be filled & data issues

- Non revenue water

DAY 2:- Practical application

- Demand forecasting- Options design and analysis

- Further data collation & analysis- Further data needs- Residential survey

- What next?

4

Objectives of the workshop

• Introduce water and wastewater companies to theconcepts of water demand management, and the‘5 Step’ Integrated Resource Planning process

• Demonstrate how demand management and theprocess can be used in Alexandria and other regionsin Egypt

• Assist water and wastewater companies to startcollecting and analysing data to help with theSWITCH project

3

5

What you will learn• What water demand management is, including

concepts and tools

• How to use the ‘5 Step’ Process in your region

• How to collect and analyse data

6

Your training packsYour packs contain:

• Agenda for 2 day workshop

• The presentation materials

• Glossary of key terms

CD of resources will be made available after training

4

7

DAY 1

Recap onIntegrated Resource Planning

8

Integrated Resource Planning(IRP)

What is it?

• A 5 Step process to help water and wastewatercompanies plan their water resources more effectively

Why do we need it?

• To address the many challenges facing the waterindustry today….

5

9

Current Challenges• Increasing population => increasing demand for water

• Growing trend for people to move to cities => greater demand onconstrained resources

• Competing demand for water => cities => agriculture => the environment

• Increasing uncertainty in supply => climate change

• Increasing risk of water pollution from sewage effluent

• Increasing seasonal demand for water => 4 million people increasing to6 million people in summer in Alexandria

• Growing need for cost-effective and low-risk ways of providing water

• Growing need for water efficiency due to constrained water resources

10

A way forward• International Water Association (IWA) has developed a ‘5 Step’

Process based on “Integrated Resource Planning” (IRP)

‘The International Demand Management Framework’

• Many leading water planning and demand management expertshelped develop the ‘5 Step’ Process led by the Institute forSustainable Futures and Madrid water company

• The process has been applied in cities in the UK, US, Australia,Oman and is considered best practice

• Now an opportunity for Alexandria to use demand managementand the 5 step process under the SWITCH project

6

11

The ‘5 Step’ Process

Helps you:• Forecast water demand more accurately• Think differently ‘water service provision’ not just

water supply• Design and compare broad selection of options (water

efficiency, reuse, supply)• Use same $/m3 to compare costs and benefits of all

options supplying or saving water

12

Helps you:• Collect data for multiple objectives• Consider local factors

• Develop & compare all options for the best outcome,using sustainability and economic tools

• Identify the benefits of demand management

• Cost-effectively fill information gaps


7

13

The process is:

• transparent and consistent, allowing appropriatestakeholders to be involved

• a clear decision making process delivering tailoredoptions for a specific region

• an adaptive management approach to plan,implement and review on an ongoing basis

What does it look like?


14

Step 1: Plan the overall process

Step 2: Analyse the situationDemand forecasting

Step 3: Develop the responseDesign & analyse options

Step 4: Implement the response

Step 5: Monitor, evaluate & review




DAY 1:

Forecasting Water Demand

1

1

DAY 1

Demand Forecasting

2

Objectives

• Introduce key concepts including:– Demand forecasting

– End use analysis

• Learn how to forecast water demand usingend use analysis and develop a reference casedemand for your region

• Introduce steps 1 & 2 of the ‘5 Step’ Process

2

3

Demand forecasting

• To develop a projection or ‘reference case’of future water demand in a given region

• To help understand the gap betweensupply and demand

Why do we need to forecast water demand?

Time

Wat

er

Supply

Water demand

The gap

Surplussupply

Deficit

4

Demand forecasting

• To know more accurately how water is used and how we can save it

• To help fill the gap between supply and demand more cost-effectively by more closely matching supply and demand

Why should we try to forecast water demandmore accurately?

Time

Wat

er

Supply

Water demand

The gap

Surplussupply

Deficit

New supply

3

5

3 methods for demand forecasting

1. Historical demand forecasting

2. Regression analysis/ climate correction

3. End use analysis

6

Method 1:Historical demand forecasting• Historical/current per person water demand• Forecast water demand by multiply the per person

demand by projected population

Benefits• Quick and easy

Limitations

• Only projecting current situation which may have been affected by ‘other factors’ such as climate

• Does not account for end use changes (e.g. change oftechnology and efficiency levels of showers, toilets etc.)

HISTORICAL DEMAND FORECASTING OF PER CAPITA DEMAND

Year

Per capita demand

(L/capita/day)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021

Actual per capita demand

1951 to 1989 data

1951 to 1992 data

1951 to 1981 data

4

7

• Establishes an empirical relationship between demand andkey variables (e.g. weather related variables, restrictions,land use change)

Benefits• Can take into consideration

some ‘other factors’ (e.g. climatic & economic factors)

Limitations• Demand limited to current or historical situation• Does not account for changes in end use

Method 2: Regression analysis / climate correction

8

• Separate water demand into differentsectors (e.g. residential, industrial)

• Separate residential into end uses(e.g. showers, toilets) and project

Benefits• Detailed understanding of ‘how’ water

is used and how this may change overtime

• Uses the concept of the ‘unit ofservice’ and not just ‘supplying avolume of water’

Limitations• Data on end uses may not be available• Takes time

Method 3:End use analysis

5

9

So how do you do?

• demand forecastingusing end use analysis

and

• the 5 step process

10

Step 1: Plan the overall process

• Engage internal staff in water company (water efficiency, reuse,supply, operations)

• Engage other stakeholders (planners, government, regulators, thecommunity)

• Set up training for staff

• Agree to develop complementary tools (demand forecasting, climatecorrection, yield models)

• Agree on timing, outcomes and common vision

• Ensure long term commitment to process - repeated at regularintervals (e.g. every 3 years)

STEP 1: PLAN OVERALL PROCESS STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5

6

11

Step 2: Analyse the Situation

STEP 1 STEP 2: ANALYSE THE SITUATION STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5

12

Demand forecasting:data / information collection


7

13

Demand Forecasting???

• ???

• ???

Surveys

•Questionnaires•Surveys•Data loggers•Diaries•Other studies

END USE DATACOLLECTION

DEMOGRAPHICDATA

STOCKDATA

DATA / INFORMATION COLLECTION

OTHER WATERSOURCES:

(eg. Rainwatertanks, bores)

METEREDWATER

BULKWATER

• Surveys• Othergovernmentstatistics

Water &w astew ater

company


14STEP 1 STEP 2: ANALYSE THE SITUATION STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5

8

15STEP 1 STEP 2: ANALYSE THE SITUATION STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5

16

What factorsaffect water demand?


9

17


• ???

• ???

Surveys



DEMOGRAPHICDATA

STOCKDATA


OTHER WATERSOURCES:


METEREDWATER

BULKWATER


Water &w astew atercompanies

The system - customers

The system - water company


18


• ???

• ???

Surveys



DEMOGRAPHICDATA

STOCKDATA


OTHER WATERSOURCES:


METEREDWATER

BULKWATER


Water &wastewatercompanies




10

19

The urban water system

DISTRIBUTIONSYSTEM

M

SOURCE

M

M

M

M

SINGLERESIDENTIAL

SINGLERESIDENTIAL

MULTIRESIDENTIAL

COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL

INSTITUTIONAL

OTHER SOURCES(e.g. rainwater

tanks, otherboreholes)

OUTDOOR

Pools/spasIrrigationOutdoor tapsAir conditionersCar washing

INDOOR

OUTDOOR

SEWERAGEPIPELINES

INDOOR

END USES

ToiletsShowersBathsBasinsKitchen tapsWashing machinesLaundry tap

The system - water company The system - customers


20

DISTRIBUTIONSYSTEM

M

SOURCE

M

M

M

M

SINGLERESIDENTIAL

SINGLERESIDENTIAL

MULTIRESIDENTIAL


INSTITUTIONAL

OTHER SOURCES(e.g. rainwater

tanks, otherboreholes)

OUTDOOR


INDOOR

OUTDOOR

SEWERAGEPIPELINES

INDOOR

END USES

ToiletsShowersBathsBasinsKitchen tapsWashing machinesLaundry tap


Metered production & demand

BULK WATER PRODUCTION


11

21

DISTRIBUTIONSYSTEM

M

SOURCE

SINGLERESIDENTIAL

SINGLERESIDENTIAL

MULTIRESIDENTIAL


INSTITUTIONAL

OTHER SOURCES(eg. rainwatertanks, otherboreholes)

OUTDOOR


INDOOR

OUTDOOR

SEWERAGEPIPELINES

INDOOR

END USESToiletsShowersBathsBasinsKitchen tapsWashingmachinesLaundry tap

Metered production & demand

M

M

M

M


METERED DEMAND

22


• ???

• ???

Surveys


END USEDATA

DEMOGRAPHICDATA

STOCKDATA


OTHER WATERSOURCES:


METEREDWATER

BULKWATER






12

23

End use analysis:in the residential sector


24

Demographic dataPopulation (‘000s) in

• Single residential households

• Multi residential households

No. of households (‘000s)• Single residential• Multi residential

Average people per household:• Single residential households• Multi residential households

Residential lot size? (m2)

Tourism equivalent population? (‘000s) STEP 1 STEP 2: ANALYSE THE SITUATION STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5

13

25

Stock dataStock: Technology types Stock: Technology types characterised characterised by efficiencyby efficiency

levellevel

OutdoorOutdoor• Lawn and garden• Pool• Evaporative air-conditioners• Other

IndoorIndoor• Toilets• Showers• Washing machines• Dishwashers• Taps• Baths• Other


26

End use data

• Technology water consumption (litres/use or litres/minute)

• Frequency (uses/person/day)

• Duration (minutes/use) NoteNote: if data is

unavailableunavailable orunreliableunreliable, alternative

data collectiontechniques can

be used

IIII II


14

27


• ???

• ???

Surveys


END USEDATA

DEMOGRAPHICDATA

STOCKDATA


OTHER WATERSOURCES:


METEREDWATER

BULKWATER





Demand Forecasting:

1. Residential - End useanalysis

2. Non residential - Historical/future trends, sectoranalysis

3. Non revenue water -Historical/future trends


28

1. End use analysis (EUA)

Stock:Stock:HouseholdHouseholdOwnershipOwnership

(sales)

Technical:Technical:WaterWater

consumptionconsumption(litres/min, litres/use)

Usage:Usage:Frequency of useFrequency of useDuration of useDuration of use

PopulationPopulation

TOTALTOTALCONSUMPTIONCONSUMPTION

((kLkL/annum)/annum)

ConsumptionConsumption((litreslitres/person/day)/person/day)

stock X usage X technology = water usestock X usage X technology = water use

1kL = 1m3


15

29

1. End use analysis (EUA)example: showers

Stock:Stock:HouseholdHouseholdOwnership:Ownership:

80% non-efficient20% efficient

Technical:Technical:Water consumption:Water consumption:11L/min non-efficient

7L/min efficient

Usage:Usage:Frequency of use:Frequency of use:

2uses/household/day

Duration of use:Duration of use:7 mins/use

Households:Households:1.55 million

TOTALTOTALCONSUMPTIONCONSUMPTION

52kL/household/annum

x

x=

TotalTotalconsumptionconsumption

53 53 Litres/person/dayLitres/person/day))=

xTotalTotal

consumptionconsumption81 GL/annum81 GL/annum

=


30

1. End use analysis (EUA)Repeat for all

• Showers:

• Toilets :

• Taps:

• Washing

machines:

• Baths:

• Garden:

• Pool:

• Evaporative

air-conditioners:


16

31

1. End use stock modelsexample: toilets


32

1. End use stock modelsexample: toilets

Toilets Water Demand (ML/a)

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

2033

2036

2039

2042

2045

2048

Year

ML/a

Water demand begins to decline

due to introduction of dual flush

toilets.

Trend becomes less

noticeable as

population rises.


17

33


• ???

• ???

Surveys


END USEDATA

DEMOGRAPHICDATA

STOCKDATA


OTHER WATERSOURCES:


METEREDWATER

BULKWATER





Demand Forecasting:Demand Forecasting:1. Residential - End use

analysis

2. Non residential -Historical/ future trends,sector analysis



34

Non residential sector


Nonresidential

sector

18

35

2. Non residential sectorAnalysis (depending on availability):• Historical/future trends in per property demand

• Sector analysis• Institutional - e.g. schools, hospitals• Commercial - e.g. hotels

• Major (e.g. top 50) water users

• Climate correction of outdoor water use (irrigation and cooling towers)

• Regression analysis (e.g. economic, employment factors)


36


• ???

• ???

Surveys


END USEDATA

DEMOGRAPHICDATA

STOCKDATA


OTHER WATERSOURCES:


METEREDWATER

BULKWATER





Demand Forecasting:1. Residential - End use

analysis

2. Non residential - Historical/future trends, sectoranalysis



19

37

Non revenue water sector


Non revenuewater

38

Analysis (depending on data) using:

• Historical/future trends

• IWA Water Losses Framework• Unavoidable annual real losses (UARL)• Current annual real losses (CARL)• (litres/ connection/ hour)• The Infrastructure Leakage Index

3. Non revenue water


20

39

Inputs• Analysed bulk water demand (bulk water minus customer metered

demand giving water balance and non revenue water)

• IWA methodology data requirements of full breakdown of water balancecomponents (e.g. real and apparent losses, pressure, pipe lengths,connections)

IWA water losses framework


40

Demand forecasting

??_ Bulk water production_ Bulk water production

_ Metered customer demand_ Metered customer demand

Total water demand by sector


21

41

The reference case

??_ Bulk water production_ Bulk water production

_ Metered customer demand_ Metered customer demand

Total water demand by sector


42

Step 2: Analyse the situationb) Determine:

• Potable demand forecast

• Demand for othersources• Small scale (e.g. rainwater

tanks, private bores)• Large scale (e.g. non potable

bores, reuse schemes)

• Potable yield fromcurrent supply

• The supply-demandbalance


22

43



• Demand for othersources• Small scale (e.g. rainwater

tanks, private bores)• Large scale (e.g. non potable

bores, reuse schemes)

• Potable yield fromcurrent supply

• The supply-demandbalance


Time

Wat

er

Supply

Water demand

The gap

Surplussupply

Deficit

44



• Demand for other sources• Small scale (e.g. rainwater tanks, private bores)• Large scale (e.g. non potable bores, reuse schemes)

• Potable yield from current supply

• The supply-demand balance

c) Reassess your region specific issues, risks &opportunities

d) Set goals appropriate to your regionSTEP 1 STEP 2: ANALYSE THE SITUATION STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5

23

45

So how is this process applied?



DAY 1:

Developing & Analysing Demand Management Options

1

1

DAY 1

Developing & analysingdemand management options

2

Objectives

• Introduce key concepts including– Demand management & conservation potential– Options (measures + instruments)– Source substitution– Least cost planning– Levelised/unit cost ($/m3)

• What is demand management and why do it?

• How do you do it?

• Introduce Steps 3 to 5 of the ‘5 Step’ Process

2

3

Key conceptsSo far

• Integrated Resource Planning• Water service provision• Demand forecasting• End use analysisNext

• Demand management & conservation potential

• Options (measures + instruments)

• Source substitution

• Least cost planning

• Levelised/unit cost ($/m3)

4

Key concepts• What is demand management?• A way to reduce the water we use without reducing the quality of‘service’ it provides (e.g. water efficient 6/3 litre dual flush toilets)

• Do more with limited water resources

• What is conservation potential?• Savings we can tap into by maximising:• the % of efficient stock and appliances in houses/properties• the way we use water (e.g. changing our behaviour and minimising

waste)

3

5

Why change existingwater service provision?

Constraints• Water is a limited resource• Capital, operating and maintenance costs of large centralised

systems are often expensiveOpportunities• New technologies and approaches are now available which can

• significantly reduce how much water we use• utilise the whole water cycle (water, wastewater, stormwater)

• Major growth in developing areas can allow use of newtechnology and systems tapping into conservation potential

There are significant constraints and opportunities enabling change

6

Whydemand management?

Demand management is the investment in efficient water use, whereone drop of water saved is the equivalent of a drop supplied

If you don’t use the drop of water you don’t have to:

• take it from the river or from groundwater reserves• store it• transport & treat it,• distribute it,• heat some of it,• collect the wastewater,• transport & treat it again,• dispose of or reuse it,• or pay for any of this process

4

7

Benefitsof demand management

Benefits are obtained for the water company, customersand the environment:

• Defer augmentation

• Save millions of dollars in over or early investment

• Save energy (e.g. water company operating costs)

• Improve customer service

• Reduce in wastewater flows

• Protect the environment

8

Steps 3, 4, 5

5

9

Step 3: Develop the Response

STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3: DEVELOP THE RESONSE STEP 4 STEP 5

10

Identify & design optionsDevelop and model options which consider:

• all sectors - residential, commercial/industrial, institutional and NRW/UFWand major end uses

• the conservation potential for each sector and end use

• a variety of measures and instruments

• realistic participation rates (e.g. how many efficient appliances are part of thestock already and how many will you be able to change)

• realistic water savings (e.g. how much water can be saved for each optionand theoretical versus actual savings)

• existing and new properties (e.g. is population and housing stock increasingrapidly to provide opportunity to make new houses water efficient or isgrowth slow so you will concentrate on efficiency of existing properties)


6

11

Separating water use

Irr igation

Air conditioner

Toilet

Laundry

Kitchen

Bathroom

Residentialsector

Residential water end usesResidential water end uses


12

Identify & design optionsOptions = measures x instrumentsOptions = measures x instruments

•• measures can be both measures can be both behavioural behavioural and structural/technicaland structural/technical

STRUCTURAL /


7

13

• instruments:

• regulatory (e.g. minimum water efficiency performancestandards on toilets, showers, air conditioners)

• economic (e.g. pricing and incentives)

• communicative (e.g. advertising campaigns, leafletsfor households, education packs for schools, advisoryservices)

Identify & design optionsOptions = measure x instrumentOptions = measure x instrument


14

Identify & design optionsStart with these options:

• education and public awareness campaign

• customer metering and regular billing

• cost reflective pricing

• leakage and pressure control in the system

• regulations to prevent inefficient stock being available


8

15

Options: examples

residential sector:• education and awareness program

• water efficient showerhead rebate

• residential indoor audit

• residential outdoor assessment

• regulations on new houses

• minimum water efficiency performance standards for appliances


16

Options: examples

non residential sector:• targeted industrial property audits/retrofits (e.g. high water users)

• targeted commercial building audits/retrofits (e.g. office blocks)

• sector audit/retrofit programs (e.g. schools, hospitals, hotels)

• regulations on new properties

• minimum water efficiency performance standards for appliances(e.g. cooling towers)


9

17

Identify & design options

How do you decide which options are best for yourregion?

Consider:

• Is demand greater than supply?

• How much does each option (demand management,reuse, supply) cost?


18

Identify & design optionsWhat is the supply-demand gap in your region?

How can you fill that gap in the most cost effective way?

Should you set a demand management target?


Time

Wat

er

Supply

Water demand

The gap

Surplussupply

Deficit

10

19

Identify & design optionsModel the water savings from combined optionsrelative to the reference case demand and targets


20

Analyseindividual options - costs

What is included, being consistent for all options?• capital• operating• Who pays? Who benefits? (water company, government or

customer)

Analyse all options over set timeframe (e.g. 30 years)

Analyse full spectrum of options• water efficiency• source substitution• reuse• water supply


11

21

Analyseindividual options - costs

For each option, determine the unit cost:two methods main methods:

annualised nnualised costcost A = CA Q

where CA is the annual operating and maintenance cost plus the annualrepayments of the capital cost, and Q is the annual volume of watersupplied or saved

levelised levelised costcost L = PV(Ci) PV (Qi)

where Ci are the costs in each year and Qi is the volume of water saved orsupplied in each year[PV is the present value over a consistent period (say 30 years) and using a consistent real discount rate (say 7%)]


Preferred method

22

Analyse individual options -‘total resource cost’ test

• the total resource cost measures the net benefit from the combinedperspective of the water service provider, customer and government ifinvolved

• foregone revenue and reduced bills are transfer payments & cancel out

• cash flow analysis takes foregone revenue into account

+ AC + RB - PC - FR -CC

+ RB - CC+AC - PC - FRNet benefit

+ AC + RBReduced bills (RB)Avoided costs (AC)Benefits

- PC - FR - CCCustomer costs(CC)

Program costs (PC)Foregone revenue(FR)

CostsTotal resource cost testCustomersWater CompanyParameter

Illustration of the method of cost benefit analysis for least cost planning, using the ‘total resource cost test’


12

23

Analyse individual options -benefits


24

Analyse individual options -benefits


13

25

Analyse grouped options


26

Analyse grouped options -supply curves


14

27

Step 4: Implement Response

STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4: IMPLEMENT RESPONSE STEP 5

28

Implement Response• develop short and long term budget and

implementation plans• recruit project manager, skilled staff and contractors• determine detailed implementation schedule for each

program• set up contracts

• set up tools and database to assist in ongoingevaluation/review of programs

• pilot & review programs• implement full program

STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4: IMPLEMENT RESPONSE STEP 5

15

29

Step 5:Monitor, Evaluate & Review

STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5: MONITOR, EVALUATE & REVIEW

30

Monitor, Evaluate & Review• Ensure monitoring, evaluation and review are embedded in the

implementation program to enable individual programs to beimproved

• Ensure best practice methods of measurement of savings ofindividual programs are used plus costs and participantsatisfaction are assessed

• Ensure the overall process is reviewed to enable it to beimproved and barriers to be overcome

• Ensure the outcomes of the process, in terms of how waterservices are provided, are regularly reviewed and the processrepeated on a regular basis to embed adaptive management


16

31

Evaluation - savings


32

Evaluation - savings


17

33



DAY 1:

Data Needs & Availability



OUTCOMES FROM NOVEMBER 2007 TRAINING

• Stakeholder analysis

• Data needs

• Data gaps to be filled



Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney EU-SWITCH – CEDARE – WEDC Loughborough

Demand Management Training 11-13 November 2007

Step One

Stakeholder Analysis

Step One of the process of integrated resource planning includes an analysis of the potential stakeholders, and their role in the process. The following stakeholders were identified in the training workshop.

No. Stakeholder Role 1. Governorate Provides instructing decrees 2. Local council committee Supporting the decisions 3. National council - members

of parliament Making decisions

4. Ministry of Housing Technical support and resources 5. Statistics Authority Providing data on housing and

demographics 6. Water and wastewater

companies Undertaking the planning process and gathering demand and customer data

7. Ministry of Irrigation Data on raw water, drainage water, groundwater resources and use

8 Ministry of Industry Possible regulation of appliances, facilitating innovation

9 Ministry of Health Drinking water quality, possibly also recycled water quality

10 Urban planning agency Land use planning, spatial planning 11 Ministry of Agriculture

(livestock fish farming allocation/ efficient irrigation)

Livestock and farming water allocation and efficient irrigation practices and programs

12 University, secondary technical

Research and technical training (e.g. agreement between Germany and Egypt for technical training)

13 Chamber of Industry, Chamber of Commerce

Consultation regarding water use and availability for larger customers and design of options

14 Environment NGO’s (e.g. Friends of the Environment)

Consultation regarding environmental impacts and benefits of options

15 Organisation of consumer protection (Government of Egypt body, and also NGO)

Consultation regarding impacts on consumers, especially low income households and measures to reduce impact

16 Media (e.g. Channel 5, newspapers, radio stations)

Consultation regarding potential for awareness programs, publicity regarding study and outcomes



WDM Training in Alexandria Data Needs for Alexandria Water Supply Area

Data Type Data needed

Bulk water demand

Reservoir corrected daily bulk water demand for the last 10 to 20 years (if possible). plus aggregated into months and quarters (if available). Metered demand • single residential • multi residential (per unit of occupancy not just property) • commercial • industrial • institutional Greater split by customer type over same period if possible for interesting customers • Commercial/industrial (e.g. hotels) and say top 150 water

using customers • Institutional (e.g. schools, hospital, government buildings,

outdoor parks)

Customer potable metered demand

No. of customers/properties in each identified sector and customer type over same time period. Same kind of information for non potable demand Customer non

potable metered or just non potable demand

Other non potable demand such as bores and rainwater tanks

Non revenue water (NRW)

Any official calculations done to assess your non revenue water component of demand Population catered for since the early 1990s (pop, households, occupancy ratio)

Population

Population projections (pop, households, occupancy ratio) Land planning Any specific information on planned development and trends in

recent development in residential and non residential sectors Total sewage flows over the same period in days/months/quarters (whatever available)

Sewage

Sewage discharge factors Service area Area serviced by water and wastewater Maps Maps of service area (including zones) Climate Rainfall, evaporation and temperature

Timing and levels of restrictions through the 90s and since 2000 and who affected (e.g. residential/non residential) if any The demand management programs that have been implemented over the same period and the participants each month/quarter (whatever detail you collate) if any

Influences on demand

Price modifications (water and wastewater) over the same period. A table of dates and price (including fixed component) would be good.



Data Type Data needed Leakage and pressure reduction programs for your system. End uses Information on the number of efficient/non efficient toilets,

showers etc. in the area Strategic documents Yield information Demand options Supply options

Other information

Marginal cost of water



Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney EU-SWITCH – CEDARE – WEDC Loughborough

Alexandria Demand Management Training 11-13 November 2007

Data Gaps

This table represents a list of agreed data gaps, information for which would be provided by 1 January 2008 by the nominated organisation. Please forward all data to: Andrea Turner Email: [email protected] Phone +61-2-9514 4951 Fax +61-2-9514 4941 No. Information required Responsible

organisation 1. For Alexandria, the estimated percentage of people in

summer visiting a) summer houses and b) hotels and other tourist establishments

Alexandria Water Company

2. Accurate population estimates for people living in Alexandria (or other areas) in last census year and in each financial year 2005, 2006 and 2007

Alexandria Water Company, and other water companies

3. Who would be the national co-ordinator for minimum water efficiency performance standards for water using appliances (Ministry of Industries? Standardisation Authority?)

CEDARE

4. Who is/should be responsible for regulating the quality of recycled water quality for a variety of uses?

CEDARE

5. Estimates for the volume of treated water used for for cleaning and similar purposes within wastewater treatment plants and estimates of the potential for replacing this water with recycled effluent.

Alexandria Wastewater Company

6. Estimates of volume of raw water input to water treatment plants, and the potential for reducing the volume of raw water lost in the process.


7. Who would be responsible for plumber or other technical training for water demand management professionals.

CEDARE

8. Volumes of wastewater entering wastewater treatment plants in financial years 2005, 2006 and 2007 and any available information on the rate of loss from sewers and inflow to sewers from stormwater or groundwater.


9. Maps of the region, of the areas of Alexandria supplied by treated water, showing the raw water pipelines and channels, treated water pipelines, wastewater pipelines and irrigation drainage pipelines/channels.

Alexandria Water Company and Alexandria Wastewater Company



No. Information required Responsible organisation

10. Maps of land use zones including new industrial zone and information on the expected growth in industry.


11. Extract data on water demand by large water users (industry). Explain the sudden decrease in industrial demand in financial year 2007.


12. Estimate the number of customers that are categorised as residential that have businesses operating at their premises. Provide a frequency analysis (histogram) of residential customer demand.


13. Number of households connected to the water company service and how many are not currently connected (informal, random dwellings). Total number of meters for households, including separate data for detached households and for apartments. How many apartments have a separate water meter?


14. Number of properties in different sectors (residential, government, commercial, tourism, large water users)


15. The amount of water used per property in financial year ending 2005, 2006 and 2007 for each category.


16. A frequency analysis (or histogram) of water demand for each category




DAY 1:

Non Revenue Water



DAY 2:

Practical Application



PRACTICAL APPLICATION

• Tutorial on demand forecasting

• Tutorial on designing options

• Tutorial on analysing options



_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________



DAY 2:

Further data collation & analysis



_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________



DAY 2:

Residential survey

Residential Water Use Survey – Alexandria 1

EU SWITCH Household Water Use Survey (Draft)

Background This survey is being completed for the EU-SWITCH Project in conjunction with CEDARE. The aim of the project is to understand how water is being used in Alexandria and ultimately how water can be saved. This survey assists in understanding current water usage in houses and potential water savings. Questions 1. How many people (including children) usually live in your house?

Adults (over 18) Children under 5 Other children (5 to 17)

……….

……….

………. 2. How many people (including children) are usually in the house during the day?

Adults (over 18) Children under 5 Other children (5 to 17)

……….

……….

………. 3. Do you have a house maid? …………Yes ❑ ………… No ❑ 4. How many times per day, on average, would the shower be used? In winter ………..………………………. In summer ………..……………..……… 5. How much time would an average shower take? ………………minutes 6. What is the flow rate of the shower that is used the most in your house (please measure)? ………….litres/minute Please provide flow rate of other showers in house if you have time. ………….litres/minute ………….litres/minute ………….litres/minute ………….litres/minute 7. How many times a day do you fill your bath? 8. What sort of washing machine do you have? (please tick one)

None

Twin tub Front loading

automatic Top loading automatic

Other

Not sure

❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ➥ .............................................

How to measure the flow rate of your shower Turn the shower on as if you are about to use the shower. Collect the water in a bucket for exactly 30 seconds (use a stop watch or the second hand on your wrist watch). Measure the water captured using a measuring jug or empty water bottle of known volume. How many litres were captured in 30 seconds …………. litres in 30 seconds Multiply by 2 to get litres per minute ………..litres per minute


9. What brand and model is your washing machine? ……………………………… Not sure ❑ 10. What is the capacity of your washing machine? ………………… kilograms Not sure ❑ 11. How many loads a week would you usually do in your washing machine? (please tick one)

1 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 20 21 to 25 26 to 30 31 to 35 over 35 ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑

12. What water wash setting do you use in your washing machine?

Cold water wash setting only ………………………. Hot or warm water settings…………………………. Sometimes cold, sometimes hot or warm……………

13. How many toilets are in your house? One Two Three Four Five or more ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ 14. What is the brand name of your toilets (for example, ‘Cleopatra’, ‘Vincentia’)? …………………………………………………………………… 15. Please write how many toilets you have of each type - a pour flush toilet …………. a single flush toilet with cistern …………. a dual flush toilet (e.g. toilet with two buttons for short and long flush) ………….. 16. How many times on average per day would the toilets in the house be flushed? …………. 17. What type of hot water system do you have? (please tick one) Electricity Gas Other Not sure

❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ➥ ....................................................... 18. Do you have a well? …………Yes ❑ ………… No ❑

What do you use the well water for? Toilet flushing ………………. Garden watering…………… Swimming pool…………… Other (please provide details) ………….. Is the well shared by other houses, and if so, how many ………….

19. Do you have a swimming pool? …………Yes ❑ ………… No ❑

What size is your swimming pool? …………. square meters


20. Do you have a garden? No………………. Yes (please specify area)……………… m2 21. How do you water your garden? Fixed hose

sprinkler Hose & sprinkler

Hand held hose

Other (please specify)

Not sure

❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ➥ ....................................................... 22. How often do you water your garden? (please tick one) Twice a

day

Daily Every

second day Twice a

week

Weekly Less than

once a week ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ 23. How long do you usually water for? (please tick one) Less than

half an hour

Half an hour to one

hour

One hour to an hour and a

half

An hour and a half to 2 hours

Two hours to 3 hours

Over 3 hours

❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ 24. Have you used any of the following ways of saving water outdoors? (please tick one or more)

Mulch around plants

Tap timer on hose sprinkler

Automatic irrigation system

controller

Moisture sensor or

rain sensor

Laundry or other

wastewater on garden

Other ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ❑ ➥ ..................................... 25. Do you have any objection to your water usage figures being used in the study? …………Yes ❑ ………… No ❑

Name……………………… House No……………….… Street ........................................ Suburb…….............................

26. What house type do you live in? Separate

house Apartment Other

❑ ❑ ❑ ➥.Please give details…………........................................... 27. How much is your average monthly water bill (in Egypt Pounds)?

In summer…………………. In winter……………………



DAY 2:

What next?



_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________

_________________________________________________________________



GLOSSARY OF TERMS

Climate Correction A modelling process to remove impacts of the climate variables from water demand data.

Demand Forecasting Predicting future water demand. Water Demand Management

Investing in water efficiency to reduce the demand for water, instead of investing only in new water supplies. Demand management programs are designed to promote conservation either through changes in consumer behaviour or changes to the stock of resource-using equipment.

End Use Analysis End use analysis involves separating the demand for water first into customer sectors (e.g. houses and apartments, commercial/industrial properties, institutional properties and water losses). Then further dividing the water demand into individual end uses – e.g. indoor demand: toilets, showers, baths, taps, washing machines and outdoor demand: garden irrigation and swimming pools. Taking an end use approach opens up different ways of providing the same service, e.g., with a different quality or quantity of water.

End uses Refers to where the water is used (e.g., in the home or commercial sector) and what it is used for (e.g., showering, irrigation).Toilets, showers, taps, swimming pools, cooling towers, urinals are examples of end uses.

Instrument Demand Management Instruments are used to implement a demand management measure. They are typically regulatory, economic or communicative instruments.

Measures Demand Management Measures increase water efficiency (e.g. installing water-efficient showerheads), reuse (e.g. installing rain water tanks) or combine the two in alternative system configurations (e.g. grey water reuse system), and can include influencing behaviour such as watering times.

Occupancy rate The average number of residents per household. Option Options combine an instrument and a measure. Stock The number or percentage of specific types of water

efficient fixtures (eg. showerheads, toilets). Price elasticity A measure of the amount by which customers will change

their demand for water for a given change in price. Program Programs consist of a selected group of options. Restrictions For the purpose of this study, ‘restrictions’ refers to short-

term water use restrictions such as drought restrictions. Secondary data Secondary data usually adapts existing data from other

studies, in some cases extrapolating or interpolating such



data. In contrast, primary data collection refers to data collected from a primary or ‘original’ source, specific to the study area.

Annualised Cost (AC) The annualised cost is the annualised capital cost combined with the annual operating cost. This method calculates a future cost, by spreading the initial cost over the lifetime of that option while accounting for the time value of money.

Avoidable or avoided cost

Those costs that would not be incurred if an option were implemented. Estimating avoided costs requires a good understanding of the base case, i.e. the business as usual, or ‘do-nothing’ alternative that would have occurred without the proposal.

Base case or reference case

This is the situation that would occur if a ‘do nothing’ or ‘do nothing differently’ approach were taken i.e., specifying the system configuration that a conventional approach would take to study objectives. In most cases, the base case will correspond to providing centralised water supply, sewerage and/or stormwater. You then use the water balance model to model the base case. As alternatives need to be compared against a common reference point, a well-defined base case is essential for a consistent cost analysis.

Best Practice Practice that experience and research have shown will reliably lead to the desired result.

CAPEX (Capital Expenditures) Refers to the cost of developing or providing non-consumable parts for the product or system. For example, the purchase of a photo copier is the CAPEX, and the annual paper and toner cost is the OPEX. For larger systems like businesses, OPEX may also include the cost of workers and facility expenses such as rent and utilities.

Cost benefit analysis (CBA)

The process of weighing the total expected costs against the total expected benefits of one or more actions in order to choose the best or most economically beneficial option.

Cost effectiveness analysis

Compares alternative ways of meeting the same objective(s). It is concerned with the relative costs of meeting objectives rather than whether an alternative can be judged as being economically beneficial in its own right. No attempt is made to value the objectives themselves in dollar terms. In cost effectiveness analysis, the viability of a particular option can only be determined by reference to the range of possible alternatives.

Cost perspective The accounting perspective which defines which cost and benefits that are included in an analysis. Cost perspectives



are either economic, indicating overall whether society will be better or worse off as a result of an action, or financial, indicating commercial viability for a particular commercial entry or defined group.

water demand management training...institute for sustainable futures, uts may 18-19, 2008 switch...

Documents