water resources and international conflict: game theory
TRANSCRIPT
Water Resources and International Conflict:
Game Theory
Kristina SchneiderCE 384D
“ The wars of the next century will be about water”- Ismail Serageldin, Vice – President of the World Bank in a 1995 New York Times Article.
Overview• The Nature of Water Resource
Conflict• Game Theory: A Brief Introduction• Application of Game Theory to the
Syr Darya River Basin• Conclusions
The Nature of Water Resource Conflict
Water is not contained in political boundaries.
Boundary over which rivers cross!
http://maps.esri.com/esri/arcview/world/world.html
Natural Limits Factors that will determine the speed at which societies reach the bounds of their water resources:
Level of development desired Absolute availability Water Population supplied
The quality of the water
Resource Rivalry Potential causes of water disputes:
Amount the resource is shared among the nations Degree of scarcity of water Relative power of each nation Accessibility of alternative fresh water supplies.
Will War result? Most likely not!
It is not strategically rational. It is hydrographically ineffective. It is economically infeasible.
Even if violence does not result, water resource inequalities still:
Causes more poverty Shortens lives Decreases the stability of the nation
Game Theory: A Brief Introduction
Game theory is a mathematical analysis of any situation involving a conflict of interest, with the intent of indicating the optimal choices that, under given conditions, will lead to a desired outcome.
- MSN Encarta Game theory is study of how players should rationally play games. Each player would like the game end in an outcome with gives them as large as a payoff as possible.
- Straffin, Game Theory and Strategy
Game Theory: A Brief Introduction
The decision makers are called players. Two person or multi-person games exist. The payoff, or outcome, is happens at the end of a game. Solutions of a game can be found at equilibrium points.
Game Theory: Assumptions
Each player can chose between two or more clear choices. Every decision will lead to a win, a lose, or a draw. The rules of the game and the payoffs for each player are known by all participants. The players will act rationally.
Game Theory: Payoffs Payoffs are often represented in matrix form. Payoffs determine what type of game is played. Zero-sum Games
One player wins while the other loses.
Non-zero-sum GamesNo straight forward answer exists.
Application of Game Theory to the Syr Darya
River Basin
The River Basin’s Unique Challenges: Former USSR
Republics Water Allocation Schemas were created with the following assumptions:
The river was contained in one nation Hydrotechincal facilities were developed to serve irrigation needs Water deficits would be alleviated by transfers from Siberia Downstream countries would provide upstream countries with heating fuels.
The Toktogul Reservoir Main reservoir along the river
Provides irrigation storage – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Provides power - Kyrgyzstan
Toktogul Model Use Multiobjective Water Resource Allocation Model for the Toktogul Reservoir to find payoffs. Three scenarios:
Maximize irrigation needs Maximize power generation for both summer and winter. Baseline – no dam exists.
Two flow regimes NNNNN NNDNN
Economic Results of the Model
Game Theory: Syr Darya Two person non-zero-sum game Players
Downstream - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Upstream – Kyrgyzstan
Only Irrigation and Power Scenarios considered
Payoff Matrices for Application of to the Syr
Darya River Basin
Payoff Polygons for Application to the Syr
Darya River Basin
Analysis of Game Theory Application
Payoffs are not the correct outcomes analyze the game. The multiple variables increase the complication of the analysis. If you ignore this, a clear equilibrium point exists at IP. This is a logical choice.
Conclusions International Water Conflict will occur. Conflict situations will not be violent. Game theory is a valid tool to help in water resource decision making. The correct payoffs must be used to receive a correct solution to a game.