water resourcesand system of the river yesil (ishim) under...

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EurAsian Journal of BioSciences Eurasia J Biosci 13, 1275-1289 (2019)

Water resources and system of the River Yesil (ISHIM) under conditions of active anthropogenous transformation and climate change

Farida Zh. Akiyanova 1*, Nataliya L. Frolova 2, Aiman A. Avezova 1, Altynay M. Shaimerdenova 1, Anton B. Oleshko 1 1 International Science Complex “Astana”, Kabanbay Batyr 8, Nur-Sultan, 010000, KAZAKHSTAN 2 The Lomonosov Moscow State University, Leninskie Gory 1, Moscow, 119234, RUSSIA *Corresponding author: [email protected]

Abstract This paper considers the features of the formation of the water resources and the system of the transboundary River Yesil/Ishim (the left tributary of the River Irtysh), the sources and the formation zone of most of the flow of which are located in Kazakhstan, the transit zone and the inflow into the Irtysh river in Russia. Initial hydrological information was taken from published data for the years 1932-2017; and for the period 2008-2017 monitoring data gathered from gauging stations controlled by the RSE Kazgidromet of the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan. Research confirms a pronounced irregularity in the flow of the Yesil River over the long-term, with sequences of high and low-water years. In terms of the volume of annual flow, the difference between these years can be as much as 200% to 300%. There is an uneven distribution of the runoff from the River Yesil during the year, during which the river system is characterized by a pronounced short flood and a very low low-water level. The entire river is characterized by the almost simultaneous onset of flood; but from the data gathered downstream there is a temporary shift in the peak of the flood and a slight increase in its duration. At the same time, the analysis shows that over the past twenty-five years there has been a tendency for the flood to shift to earlier dates; a decrease in its duration; and an increase in runoff. In addition to the influence of climatic factors on the runoff and system of the River Yesil, qualitative and quantitative changes in the hydrological characteristics are shown, taking into account the regulatory activity of large reservoirs. In general, an increase in the use of surface-water resources and unproductive losses exacerbate the situation with their lack in low-water years, with the greatest shortage of water resources in the upper part of the Yesil’s basin. Keywords: transboundary river, river flow, flow system, flow regulation, River Yesil (Ishim), Kazakhstan, Russia Akiyanova FZh, Frolova NL, Avezova AA, Shaimerdenova AM, Oleshko AB (2019) Water resources and system of the River Yesil (ISHIM) under conditions of active anthropogenous transformation and climate change. Eurasia J Biosci 13: 1275-1289. © 2019 Akiyanova et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.

INTRODUCTION Kazakhstan has limited water resources that are

unevenly distributed throughout the territory and are characterized by significant intra-annual and long-term fluctuations in the flow. These features significantly complicate the management of the country’s water resources, averaging 91.3 km3 / year over the observation period 1974-2008.

Of the eight water basins within Kazakhstan, seven are transboundary, with 48.5% of the resources of the river flow coming from neighboring countries. One of the transboundary basins is the Yesil (Ishim) river basin, the area of which in Kazakhstan is 237.2 thousand km². The article discusses the results of studies of the River Yesil, the average long-term resources of which are not above

1.7 km3 / year. They constitute 1.86% of the total water resources of Kazakhstan, 50% of provision and 3.6% of the river flow originating within Kazakhstan (Abishev et al. 2016, Kazakhstan UNDP 2004, Yunussova and Mosiej 2016).

Sharing of the water resources of the River Yesil/Ishim is carried out in accordance with the Joint Activity Agreement, signed between the Department of Environmental Protection of the Administration of the Tyumen Region (Russia) and the North-Kazakhstan branch of the RSE Kazvodhoz (Kazakhstan) (General scheme of integrated use …2016).

Received: April 2019 Accepted: September 2019

Printed: September 2019

mailto:[email protected]

EurAsian Journal of BioSciences 13: 1275-1289 (2019) Akiyanova et al.

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Administratively, 51.5% of the basin of the River Yesil is located in the Akmola region; 41.3% in the North Kazakhstan region; and 7.2% in the Karaganda and Kostanay regions (General scheme of integrated use … 2016). The surface runoff of the river is used for water supply in more than 600 rural settlements within the Akmola and North Kazakhstan administrative areas and eight cities (including the cities of Nur-Sultan and Petropavlovsk), the population of the above totalling over 2.3 million people. In part, the runoff of the River Yesil is used for the irrigation of agricultural lands and gardens.

A number of factors complicate the utilization of the resources of the River Yesil. These are both natural (the formation of runoff in the zone of insufficient rainfall; fast-growing spring floods; a long period of low water; and the prevalence of flat terrain), and anthropogenic, associated with overregulation of runoff and a high degree of anthropogenic transformation of the riverbed and floodplain in the upper flow. The purpose of this study is to study the intra-annual and multi-year flow system of the transboundary River Yesil in terms of climate change and active water usage.

MATERIALS AND METHODS The work was based on data from published

sources, including ‘Surface-Water Resources in Development Areas of Undeveloped and Fallow Land in the Akmola and North Kazakhstan Regions’ (Resources of surface waters … 1958, Surface water resources in areas … 1960), contained within a multi-volume publication by the Institute of Geography of the Ministry of Education of Republic of Kazakhstan: Water Resources of Kazakhstan: Assessment, Forecast, Management (Davledgaliyev et al. 2012, Dehkordi et al. 2018).

Use was also made of the following information: monitoring data gathered by the Kazgydromet national hydrometeorological service of the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan; expenditure, levels and water quality for 2010-2017; information about resources, volumes and the system of water use of the integrated water-use scheme deriving from the Yesil Basin Inspection (General scheme of integrated use … 2016); the annual reports of the CWR of the Ministry of Agriculture of Republic of Kazakhstan covering the water resources of the River Yesil basin, their quality and use (Demiral et al. 2018, Surface and groundwater resources … 2018); and meteorological monitoring data from available sources for the period 2011–2017 (Weather and Climate n.d.).

To study the water system of the River Yesil, an integrated geographical approach was used, which includes descriptive, cartographic and statistical methods with an analysis of the series both from an intra-annual and long-term viewpoint. The study of the

contribution of anthropogenic and climatic factors to the formation and change of runoff was carried out using analytical methods.

The calculation of monthly average, annual average and maximum annual values of water flow was carried out in the light of a large number of hydrometric observations over a long time period as according to SP 33-101 (Recommendations for the calculation … 2017). For the entire period, the calculations used annual maximum (instantaneous) water consumption based on stationary observations at the following gauging stations: Turgen (1975-2017), Volgodonovka (1978-2017), Astana (1933-2017), Sergeevka (1968-2016), Kamennyi karier (1947 - 2016) and Petropavlovsk (1932-2016).

The reduction of the characteristics of runoff over this period and the filling-in of gaps in the observations were performed using pair correlation between the average annual water consumption, average monthly water consumption and annual maximum water consumption by the analogy method, based on conventional statistical methods (Chigrinets 2009, Davletgaliev 1998, Hosseinzadeh et al. 2019, Magritsky 2014, Moon et al. 2018). The process of restoring gaps in the observations was complicated by the regulated flow system of the River Yesil. In this connection, the calculated dependences were constructed separately for the periods before and after the creation of the Sergeevsky and Astana reservoirs.

Evaluation of the homogeneity of the series of river flow was carried out on the basis of genetic and statistical analyses. Genetic analysis consists of studying the structure of perennial runoff fluctuations and identifying the causes that determine the heterogeneity of hydrological observations. An analysis of the chronological graphs of the main characteristics of the flow of the River Yesil for 1932–2017 and an analysis of the intra-annual distribution of the flow for 1991-2016 were carried out (Andreyanov 1960, Davletgaliev 1992, Rahman and Vaheed 2018). Based on genetic analysis, changes in the mean values of the River Yesil flow and the variability of the runoff over time were determined.

A statistical analysis of the homogeneity of the following parameters of the hydrological characteristics of the River Yesil flow was carried out: mean value, variance and variation coefficients. The condition for obtaining representative calculation data, including maximum water flow, was the length of a series of hydrometric observations (at least 15-30 years) and the relative standard quadratic error in determining the estimated water flow, which should not exceed 20% of its value (Chigrinets 2009, Davletgaliev 1998, Hosseini Naghaviet al. 2019).

In order to determine the anthropogenic pressure on water resources, a water stress indicator was used in the studies, which provides a generalized assessment of water-resource deficit. Water stress is determined by the


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ratio of the amount of water abstraction from surface sources to available renewable water resources, in particular, to the average long-term value of river flow. If the indicator is less than 10%, then water stress is not present; 10 to 20% indicates a small amount of water shortage; 20–40% is moderate; and an excess of 40% means a high level of water shortage (Shiklomanova 2008, Hosseinzadeh et al. 2019).

To study the shortage of water resources, the indicator of the specific water supply of the population was also used, which is calculated using the ratio of the total flow to the population. This approach is used to compare different regions and subjects by the extent of

water availability and allows one to judge in general the state of water resources in terms of how they are naturally formed (Shiklomanova 2008).

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION General characteristics of the River Yesil. The River

Yesil (named the Ishim where it flows through Russia) is the only major transboundary river the sources and the formation of which are located within Kazakhstan. The river flows through the areas of the Karaganda, Akmola and North Kazakhstan regions of Kazakhstan, as well as the Tyumen and Omsk regions of Russia (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1. Basin of the Yesil (Ishim) River


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The Yesil originates on the northern slope of the Kazakh Hills in the Niyaz mountains, at absolute elevations of 561 m (Davledgaliyev et al. 2012). It flows into the Irtysh river and and at that point is part of the Kara Sea basin. The total area of the Yesil basin is 177 thousand km2 (of which 36 thousand km2 is non-draining depressions). The area within Kazakhstan is 142 thousand km2 (of which 29 thousand km2 is non-draining depressions) (Alimkulov et al. 2010, Davledgaliyev et al. 2012).

The length of Yesil puts it among the category of large rivers. The total length of the river is 2450 km, including 72 km within the Karaganda region; 1027 km within the Akmola region; and 690 km within the North-Kazakhstan region (General scheme of integrated use … 2016). An area within Russia accounts for about 27% of the length of the river and 20% of its basin, within which about 30% of the Ishim channel flow is formed (Frolova and Ivanovskaya 2015).

The fall of the river from its source to the border of Kazakhstan with Russia is 476 m; and the average surface slope is 0.34%. In general, from the source to the confluence of the River Irtysh (in Russia) the fall of the river is 513 m and the slope is 0.21%. At the same time, the fall of the river in its latitudinal segment is 325 m, with an average surface slope of 0.617%; and on the meridional segment the fall of the river is 197 m, with a slope of 0.102%.

The catchment area of the Yesil is located in a continental arid climate zone. The average temperature of the coldest month, January, varies from -15ºС to -19ºС; and that of the hottest month, July, from + 18ºС to + 21ºС. Relative air humidity is at its maximum in winter (75%-85%) and minimum in summer (30%-50%). The amount of precipitation in the area under consideration varies from 250 mm per year in the southern part of the Yesil basin to 450 mm per year in the north. About 25%-30% of the annual precipitation falls during the cold period. The average depth of snow cover in the basin

varies from 20 to 40 mm per year (Bultekov et al. 2010, Gvozdetsky 1973). The severe aridity of the climate in the southern part of the Yesil basin limits the development of a dense river network. Significant water in the northern part of the basin, along with the peculiarities of the flat terrain, contributes to the widespread development of lakes here.

The greatest density of the river network is within elevations with dissected relief and where there is most water. The main tributaries of the Yesil River (the Kalkutan, the Zhabay, the Terisakkan, the Akkan-burlyk and the Iman-burlyk) flow into the territory of Kazakhstan in the middle course.

Where the river reaches the plain, the number of tributaries sharply decreases. There are a number of off-site sites on the Yesil that are transit areas for runoff, the most significant of them (250-300 km long) being located in the headwaters of the river.

The flow of the Yesil is regulated. There are 45 reservoirs in the basin, three of which are multi-purpose with a volume of more than 100 million m3; six with a volume of more than 10 million m3; and 36 single-purpose reservoirs with a capacity of from 1 to 10 million m3. Basic information about the existing large reservoirs which have long-term and seasonal regulatory functions is given in Table 1.

The Yesil has biological resources that are used for recreational purposes and is navigable in the lower reaches. It serves as a backbone along which natural-economic systems have formed. Along the River Yesil, within the floodplain terraces and watersheds, there are large cities, towns and rural settlements. The runoff of the Yesil exists over a considerable length and area of the territory, including steppe and forest-steppe zones; island lowlands; and low hills and plains, all of which determine the basic conditions of its formation.

The pattern of feed for the Yesil and its main tributaries is due both to climatic (amount and seasonal distribution of precipitation, temperature and humidity)

Fig. 2. Linear scheme of the River Yesil (Ishim) with main tributaries and locations of gauging stations


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and other natural factors (topography, lithology of rocks, soil and vegetation).

Features of the distribution of the flow of the River Yesil. The Yesil is characterized by uneven runoff in its longest section. A feature is the grouping of high-water and low-water years, which was determined in relation to the average long-term value of the flow volume for the period 1926-2016, equal to 1651 million m3 (Fig. 3). Low-water years are: 1930-1940, 1950-1953, 1955-1958, 1967-1969, 1973- 1978, 1997-2000 and 2007-2012. High-water years are: 1941 - 1942, 1946 - 1949, 1970 - 1972, 1984-1986 , 1993-1994 and 2014-2016. At the same time, high-water periods do not compensate for low-flow waters in terms of flow (General scheme of integrated use … 2016). In dry years, runoff is less than 6–10 times less than the average multi-year runoff

value, and in wet years it is 2.5–3 times higher than average values (Frolova and Ivanovskaya 2015).

In addition, the average annual volume of the natural flow of the Yesil increases from its source at all points from 0.12 km3 per year (s. Turgen gauging station) to 2.11 km3 per year (Petropavlovsk gauging station), 2.23 km3 per year (Dolmatovo village gauging station) and 3.22 km3 per year (Orekhovo village gauging station) (Annual data on the regime … 2018, Frolova and Ivanovskaya 2015). At the same time, the highest values of the coefficient of variation are typically associated with the middle course of the Yesil, where they are 0.7-0.75 (Table 2).

Another feature of the Yesil system is the uneven distribution of the flow during the year, which is associated with the exceptional importance to the river-feed of snow meltwater. The hydrological system of the

Table 1. Information on large reservoirs in the Yesil Basin ( Davledgaliyev et al. 2012) Name Commission

ing year Capacity on the project, mln.m3 Mirror area, km2 Water level, m Type of

regulation full useful FRL DSL FRL DSL Sergeevsky 1969 693 635 116.7 19.2 138 128 Perennial Astana (Vyacheslavsky) 1971 410.9 345.4 60.9 9.94 403 391 Perennial Ishimskoe 1958 9.2 8.2 2.3 - Seasonal Petropavlovsk 1973 19.2 16.1 9.7 3.7 Seasonal

Fig. 3. Dynamics of the volume of the annual flow of the Yesil River at the gauging station Sergeevka (1) and its long-term average value (2), difference in integral curve of annual runoff (3)

Table 2. Characteristics of the annual runoff of the River Yesil (Frolova and Ivanovskaya 2015, General scheme of integrated use … 2016, Surface water resources in areas of virgin … 1960) Name of gauging station, alignment

Lот mouth,

km

Fof act.,thousa

nd km. Parameters of annual flow Estimated annual

runoff of different security, Р % Flow rate Cv Cs 25 50 75 95

Astana reservoir Qo, м3/с 5.89 0.66 1.25 Wo, км3 0.186 0.161 0.095 0.035

Sergeevsky reservoir 1080 101 Qo, м3/с 55.1 0.75 1.5 Wo, км3 1.74 1.468 0.780 0.180

Petropavlovsk city 877 106 Qo, м3/с 66.9 0.71 1.06 Wo, км3 2.11 1.846 1.01 0.196

Dolmatovo village (on the border of Kazakhstan and Russia) 667 111 Qo, м3/с 70.7 0.73 1.10 99.1 59.9 30.8 8.0

Wo, км3 2.23 3.13 1.89 0.97 0.25 Orekhovo village (at the mouth of the Ishim river and at the confluence of the Irtysh river)

1014 138 Qo, м3/с 102

0.61 1.46 131 87.5 56.8 31.1

Wo, км3 3.22 4.13 2.76 1.79 0.98


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river is characterized by a pronounced short flood and very low low water. According to Zaikov’s classification (1954), the river belongs to the “Kazakhstani type” of water system. The main source is snow (82.5-85%) - ground and rain feed are of little importance (Alimkulov et al. 2010). The spring flood begins in April and lasts one and a half to two months. The characteristic dates of the beginning of the spring flood are the second half of March (early flood) to the third week in April (later flood).

In the Akmola region, the spring flood, on average, begins around the 5th to the 10th of April, ending mostly in May. The length of the flood in the upper and middle reaches of the river is 1-1.5 months and increases downstream to 2-3 months. The form of the flood’s hydrograph is mostly single-top. At the end of May to the beginning of June there is low flow, lasting for 9-10 months. In some parts of the upper reaches of the river, low flow sometimes leads to a complete drying-up of the river. In summer, minimum water consumption is seen in July-August and in winter from January to March. The smallest of the minimum costs are in winter low water.

Analysis was carried out of of spatio-temporal changes in the average monthly values of the flow of water from the headwaters of the Yesil river from the mouth to the mouth, using data from gauging stations from v. Turgen to v. Dolmatovo (Kazakhstan); and from v. Ilyinka to v. Orekhovo (Russia) for 2016.

Analysis showed the simultaneous start of the onset of flood along the entire length of the river, as well as an increase in water flow as the main tributaries flow into the river; a shift in the peak of floods; and an increase in its duration downstream. At the same time, monthly average discharge rates at the peak of the flood increase by more than 85 times from the Astana gauging station to the v. Ilyinka gauging station. There is a time shift in peak discharge rate from April to May at the v. Dolmatovo gauging station.

Analysis was also carried out of the intra-annual distribution of the flow of the River Yesil for different water content groups (in % of the seasonal flow) as

recorded by the v. Turgen gauging station (conditionally natural runoff) and the Petropavlovsk gauging station, for the years 1991-2016. The analysis indicates that the general trends of the average monthly water discharge persist, with the exception of dry years (P = 75%) in the lower reaches of the Yesil River (Fig. 4).

These results reflect the influence of conditionally-natural dynamics of intra-annual discharges in low-water years and show the role of flow regulation by reservoirs in average water and high-water years.

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the flow of the Yesil. An assessment of the influence of climatic characteristics on the flow of the River Yesil was carried out for the upper and middle reaches of the Yesil River within the Akmola and North Kazakhstan regions over the past 75 and 25 years. For the Akmola and North Kazakhstan regions for the period 1941-2017, there was a trend of increasing anomalies of average annual temperatures of the surface air layer and average annual precipitation amounts (Fig. 5). Anomalies are calculated relative to the base period for 1981-2010. A smoothed curve was obtained by 11-year moving averaging (Annual bulletin of monitoring the state … 2018).

The analysis shows that in the basin of the Yesil the greatest temperature anomalies are observed in the spring period and amount to 0.37ºС / 10 years (Table 3). There is also a trend of anomalies of increase in annual precipitation amounts by 3.9 mm / 10 years, while the main contribution is made by precipitation of the winter and spring periods of the year (Table 4) (Mustafaev et al. 2018, Seventh national communication … 2017).

Climate-change analysis for the period from 1944 to 2017 indicates an increase in annual precipitation within the basin of the Yesil River (Fig. 6a, 6b). According to the Astana weather station, precipitation increased on average from 300 to 350 mm / year; and according to the Petropavlovsk meteorological station from 350 to 400 mm / year. According to the v. Turgen and Petropavlovsk gauging stations, precipitation increased along with the value of of the river flow.

a b

Fig. 4. Estimated intra-annual distribution of runoff within the water year of the River Yesil by gauging stations v. Turgen (a) and Petropavlovsk (b)


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a b

c d

Fig. 5. Time series and linear trends of anomalies a) average annual temperatures in the Akmola region; b - annual amount of precipitation (in%) in the Akmola region; in - average annual temperatures in the North Kazakhstan region; g - the annual amount of precipitation (in%) in the North Kazakhstan region. Linear trends are highlighted in green (a) and blue (b) ( Annual bulletin of monitoring the state … 2018)

Table 3. Indicators of the linear trend of anomalies of annual and seasonal temperatures of the surface air layer of the basin of the River Yesil for 1941-2015 ( Bultekov et al. 2010)

River basin Year Winter Spring Summer Autumn *а **R2 а R2 а R2 а R2 А R2

Yesil 0.29 32 0.29 5 0.37 17 0.18 12 0.3 15 * a - linear trend coefficient, ºС / 10 years; ** R2 - coefficient of determination,%

Table 4. Indicators of the linear trend of anomalies of annual and seasonal amounts of atmospheric precipitation of the basin of the River Yesil for 1941-2015 ( Seventh national communication … 2017)

River basin Unit of measurment

Year Winter Spring Summer Autumn *а **R2 А R2 а R2 а R2 а R2

Yesil Mm 3.9 2

2.8 14

1.8 4

-1.0 0

-0.1 0 % 1.1 5.8 2.7 -0.2 -0.2

* a - linear trend coefficient,% / 10 years, mm / 10 years; ** R2 - coefficient of determination,%


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According to the available data for the headwaters of the Yesil River as gathered by the conditionally-natural gauging station v. Turgen, an assessment was carried out of the influence of climatic factors for the period from 1975 to 2017. The correlation coefficient of the flood discharge at the v. Turgen gauging station and the precipitation for the cold period of the year as measured by the Astana meteorological station was 0.7. It should be noted that in some years the relationship between runoff and precipitation decreases under the influence of other factors. An increased volume of runoff with an insignificant amount of precipitation may occur due to the inflow of additional volume from the higher steppe lakes, which in some years may overflow and drain into the Yesil. A factor that may reduce the flow of spring runoff into the river is be the low humidity of the basin’s soils, when meltwater is spent on moistening and infiltration, and also accumulates in numerous closed depressions.

In addition, since 1975, changes in the flood parameters have been observed (Fig. 7). There is an increase in runoff occurring during the flood period. The beginning of the flood has shifted to earlier dates, about a week earlier, from early April to the end of March; and the end of the flood, respectively, from mid-May to early May. These trends reflect climatic change in the basin: an increase in the temperatures of the spring period leads to a more rapid thawing process and therefore to an earlier beginning to the flood; and an increase in

precipitation in the winter period leads to an increase in the volume of the flood flow. The Spearman coefficient rs, at a significance level of α = 0.05, is 0.57, and the Student t test (α / 2.39) = 2.021, while the condition |𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟|√𝑛𝑛 − 1 < 𝑡𝑡(α

2), which reflects a statistically

significant trend towards an increase in precipitation and runoff values.

Influence of Deregulation of the Yesil on the Flow System and Volume

The existence of a perennial series of observations on gauging stations on the Yesil allowed an analysis of water discharge in a conditionally natural period, from 1933 to 1970. This is before the construction of large reservoirs of long-term and seasonal regulation and after their commissioning (Veshkurtseva 2010). The analysis of quantitative changes in the monthly and annual average runoff of the Yesil River by gauging station “Astana city” from 1933 to 2016 with division into periods “before” and “after” the construction of reservoirs. At the same time, calculations were made on the average, maximum and minimum values of monthly average and annual average values of the flow of the Yesil river during the conditionally natural and regulated periods.

Quantitative changes in mean monthly runoff values before and after 1971 (primarily in connection with the creation of the Astana and Sergeevsky reservoirs) are shown in Table 5.

(a)

(b)

Fig. 6. The multi-year schedule of changes in average annual expenditures. Yesil and annual precipitation: a - precipitation at the Astana meteorological station (1) and Yesil river discharge at the v. Turgen gauging station (2), b - precipitation at the Petropavlovsk meteorological station (1), Yesil river discharge at the Petropavlovsk gauging station (2)


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Fig. 7. Dynamics of flood runoff for 1975-2017 (1), the dates of the beginning (2) and the end of the flood (3) of the Yesil River at the v. Turgen


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The decrease in monthly average water consumption

during the flood period in April and May for the period 1971–2016 is offset by their increase in the remaining months of the year. The average annual values of the annual flow for the periods before and after the construction of the reservoirs altered and constitute 5.88 m3 / s (1933–1970) and 3.52 m3 / s (1971–2016, respectively), respectively.

To assess the impact of large reservoirs on the flow of the Yesil, a detailed analysis of the chronological

variations of the annual maximum water discharge values from 1933 to 2017 was also carried out. An analysis of the annual values of the maximum water flow over a multi-year period most clearly reflects the changes during the flood period. It shows that after the construction of large reservoirs, there is a decrease in the mean values of the maximum water discharge at the Astana gauging station over the long-term period, from 310 to 121 m3 / s, and at the Petropavolvsk gauging station, from 834 to 536 m3 / s (Fig. 8 and Fig. 9).

Table 5. Monthly and average annual water discharge for the River Yesil at the Astana gauging station, from 1933 to 1970 and from 1971 to 2016, m3 / s years months years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Average for the period 1933-1970 0.07 0.03 0.56 56.0 8.97 1,67 0,60 0,66 0,51 0.62 0.59 0.29 5.88

Maximum 0.46 0.45 10.6 242 49.3 5.50 2.79 5.28 4.49 5.09 4.17 2.39 22.1 Minimum 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.14 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.10 Average for the period 1971-2016 0.86 0.80 2.01 25.2 4.35 1.94 1.92 1.69 1.46 1.22 1.14 0.98 3.52

Maximum 3.25 3.34 19.4 110 22.1 5.45 5.59 5.89 5.91 5.51 5.19 3.64 13.0 Minimum 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.79 0.14 0.15 0.13 0.08 0.01 0.06 0.03 0.08 0.20

Fig. 8. Dynamics of annual maximum water consumption for the River Yesil at the Astana gauging station from 1933 to 2017

Fig. 9. Dynamics of annual maximum water consumption for the River Yesil at the Petropavlovsk gauging station from 1932 - 2016


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If the maximum annual (instantaneous) water consumption reached more than 3,760 m3 / s at the Petropavlovsk gauging station, then, after the commissioning of the Sergeevsky and Astana (Vyacheslavsky) reservoirs, it did not exceed 1710 m3 / s, and the amplitudes of the inter-annual fluctuations of the runoff decreased by more than half.

The statistical characteristics of the annual values of maximum water flow after the commissioning of reservoirs have changed significantly (Table 6). The values of the maximum water discharge averaged over a multiyear period (Qav.), the standard deviation (), the coefficient of variation (Cv) and the asymmetry (Cs) have decreased.

With the help of statistical significance criteria, a series of observations were performed for homogeneity. The criterion of the Student (t) was used to test the homogeneity of the series by mean value; the Fisher criterion (F) by dispersion; and the Wilcoxon criterion (U1 and U2) by the directivity and intensity of changes (Table 7). The values of the criteria obtained show that

the rows are not homogeneous. Only the Wilcoxon criterion shows the uniformity of the series of maximum costs for the Petropavlovsk gauging station.

It can be seen that below the Astana reservoir the schedule of discharge of water in the Yesil is smoothed: the maximum monthly discharge rates decrease by more than a third from v. Turgen to v. Volgodonovka. Further, to the city of Nur-Sultan, where the flow is regulated and the riverbed is concreted, the maximum flow rates decrease and stretch from April to May (Fig. 10a). The same smoothing of the maximum flow schedule is also observed below the Sergeevsky reservoir. According to the Sergeevka gauging station, the maximum average monthly runoff takes place in April for one month; whereas at the next gauging stations, Petropavlovsk and v. Dolmatovo, the maximum values for the average monthly flow decrease and are distributed over a longer period during April to May (Fig. 10b).

Table 6. Statistical characteristics of the average annual maximum discharge of water along the River Yesil before the construction of reservoirs and after putting them into operation Gauging station I. Before the construction of reservoirs II. After commissioning of reservoirs Change, %

years Qср, м3/с , м3/с Cv Cs years Qср, м3/с , м3/с Cv Cs Qср , м3/с 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Astana city 1933-1970 310 315 1.59 2.11 1971-2016 121 160 0.87 0.15 - 61 - 49 Petropavlovsk city 1932-1968 874 1138 1.66 1.88 1969-2016 536 492 0.74 -0.06 - 39 - 57 Kamennyi karier

village 1947-1970 975 1195 1.25 2.05 1971-2016 917 868 0.92 1.24 -5.95 -27.4

Table 7. Criteria for homogeneity of rows of maximum discharge of water of the Yesil River

Gauging station

Periods of years Student criterion Fisher Criterion Wilcoxon test Conclusion on the homogeneity of the series

I II t ta F Fa U U1 U2 Student criterion

Fisher Criterion

Wilcoxon test

Astana city 1933-1970

1971-2017 3.57 1.99 3.87 1.85 1317 671.254 1114.746 heterogen

eous heterogen

eous heterogen

eous Petropavlovsk

city 1932-1968

1969-2016 1.85 1.49 5.32 1.75 950

716.718 1059.282 heterogeneous

heterogeneous

heterogeneous

Kamennyi karier village

1947-1970

1971-2016 0.23 1.99 1.94 1.87 525 393.591 710.409 homogene

ous heterogen

eous homogene

ous

а b

Fig. 10. The course of the average monthly discharge of the water of the Yesil River - from the v. Turgen gauging station to the Astana-Koktal gauging station ; b - from the Sergeevka gauging station to the Petropavlovsk gauging station ( Annual data on the regime … 2018)


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Use of Water Resources by Branches of the Economy

Within the Yesil river basin, the most developed industry is agriculture, especially the grain sector. The industry here is represented mainly by the energy, mining and processing groups (General scheme of integrated use … 2016).

According to inspection of the Yesil basin in the modern period in Kazakhstan, 85% of all water is bodies of surface. Water intake from bodies of surface water in the Yesil basin is about 174 million m3 /year (2007–2016), which is about 7% of the average annual value of the annual water resources of the basin. The difference between water intake and use is on average 28 million m3 / year; and in general there is a trend towards a decrease in the value, which by 2016 decreased to 13.4 million m3 / year (General scheme of integrated use … 2016). In addition, the volume of water resources lost in evaporation and filtration from the Astana, Sergeevsky and Petropavlovsk reservoirs, respectively, are 40, 80, 10 million m3 / year (Surface and groundwater … 2018), which is generally equal to 5% of the flow of the Kazakh part of the Yesil basin.

Looking at the indicator of total use of surface water in the context of industries, there has been a sharp decline in their volumes from 1991 to 2000 by more than a third (Fig. 11). If in 1989 the total volume of surface water used was 632 million m3 / year, then by 2017 the volume decreased by a factor of 3.6 and amounted to 172 million m3 / year. The largest decrease, up to 10 times less, is typical for agricultural water use (from 410 million m3 / year to 41 million m3 / year), which is associated with the crisis in agriculture. If in the early 1990s agricultural water consumption amounted to 61% of the total water consumption, by the modern period it had decreased to 14%. From 2000 to 2017, these volumes increased slightly.

Looking at the makeup of water consumption for the needs of agriculture in the modern period, 64% is accounted for by regular irrigation and 32% by agricultural water supply; whereas in 1989 more than half was for irrigation. The decline in industrial water consumption occurred in 1998-2000 by up to 50%. The average value of water use for industrial purposes in 2000 was 56 million m3 / year, which accounted for 30% of the total water consumption. The share of industrial water consumption from 1989 to 2017 increased from 18% to 27% (Fig. 12).

Fig. 11. Dynamics of water use by industry in the Yesil basin within Kazakhstan: 1 - household needs; 2 - industry; 3 - agriculture; 4 – fisheries. Inset - the dynamics of agricultural water use by sector: 3.1 - regular irrigation, 3.2 - estuary irrigation, 3.3 - agricultural water supply, 3.4 - irrigation of pastures

Fig. 12. Structure of water consumption in the River Yesil River (%) in Kazakhstan: 1 - household needs; 2 - industry; 3 - agriculture; 4 - fisheries; sidebars - expenditure pattern in agriculture by sector: 3.1 - regular irrigation, 3.2 - estuary irrigation, 3.3 - agricultural water supply, 3.4 - irrigation of pastures


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The volume of water use for domestic needs has changed from 70 to 120 million m3 / year. The share of water use for household needs in 1989 was 15%, and in 2017 - 59%.

At the same time, there is no strong dependence of water abstraction on the water content of the year. In general, in recent years, the average usage remains at the same level, which leads to a greater or lesser load on water resources.

CONCLUSIONS The drainage basin of the transboundary River Yesil

is located in the zone of influence of the continental arid climate within the steppe and forest-steppe zones, which, along with the development in the basin of island low-mountainous low-slope arrays and plains, affect the structural features of the river system, its volume and flow system.

Based on the analysis of a long-term series of data, the pronounced uneven runoff of the Yesil river with the grouping of high-water and low-water years is confirmed, in which the flow of high-water years does not compensate for the flow of the low-water period by a difference of 2-3 times. An analysis of the spatial and temporal changes in the average annual flow volumes of the Yesil River showed their increase all the way from the source to the mouth: from 0.12 km3 / year as recorded by the v. Turgen gauging station to 2.11 km3 / year at the Petropavlovsk gauging station; 2.23 km3 / year at the v. Dolmatovo gauging station; and up to 3.22 km3 / year at the v. Orekhovo gauging station).

Another feature of the Yesil system is the uneven distribution of the flow during the year, which is associated with the exceptional importance of snowmelt to the water feeding the river of. Analysis of a series of data on the flood system showed a number of developing trends. The river is characterized by the practically simultaneous onset of flood throughout its length (the second decade of March); a temporary shift of the flood peak from April to May and an increase in flood duration downstream; an increase in water flow as the main tributaries flow into the river (up to 85 times more between the Astana gauging station and the Ilyinka village gauging station). In addition, over the past 40 years, there has been a trend towards a reduction in the duration of the floods by an average of 20%, and an increase in runoff occurring during the floods by a factor of 1.8; and the beginning of the flood has shifted to earlier dates, from early April to the end of March, and the end of the flood from mid-May to early May.

The regulation of the flow of the Yesil River has a significant impact on the water system of the river. Based on the analysis of long data series, qualitative and quantitative changes in the hydrological characteristics of the river are demonstrated, taking into account the regulatory activity of the reservoirs. The analysis of the volume and intra-annual distribution of the flow of the

River Yesil before construction (conditionally natural period) and after the construction of large reservoirs was carried out. For example, the average annual value of the annual flow at the Astana gauging station before the construction of the Astana reservoir (1933–1970) was 5.88 m3 / s; and after construction (1971–2016) this value decreased by 60% and amounted to 3.52 m3 / s.

An assessment has been carried out of the impact of climate indicators on the flow of the Yesil within the Akmola and North Kazakhstan regions over the past 40-75 years. The analysis shows that in the Yesil basin the greatest temperature anomalies are observed in the spring period and amount to 0.37ºС / 10 years. There is also a trend towards increasing anomalies of annual precipitation amounts by 3.9 mm / 10 years, with the main contribution being made by precipitation in the winter and spring periods of the year. In the basin of the Yesil since 1974, there has been an increase in the annual amounts of precipitation by 50 mm and an increase in the volume of river flow. Changes in precipitation during the cold period are closely related to runoff during the flood period.

At the same time, according to the Seventh National announcement of the Republic of Kazakhstan at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, an increase in the average annual temperature of up to 2.5 ° C is expected in the basin of the River Yesil by 2050 compared to the multiyear norm for this area. Despite the increase in precipitation during the cold period of the year, an increase in temperatures during the spring period will lead to an earlier onset of snowmelt processes; a decrease in the period of snow accumulation; a decrease in soil freezing; and a large loss of moisture reserves (Bultekov et al. 2010).

According to the forecast data, there will by 2050 be a decrease in the annual flow relative to the multi-year norm within the Yesil basin. By 2050, the flow of the Yesil will have decreased by 5.9% (v. Turgen) (Bultekov et al. 2010). With the general trend of decreasing water availability in rivers, the risk of the creation of extremely high floods, low water, and droughts cannot be ruled out.

To determine the quantitative parameters of the possible shortage of water resources, an indicator of specific water availability was calculated in thousand m3 / year per person. The basic of the River Yesil within Kazakhstan is characterized by very low water availability - 1.3 thousand m3 / year per person. The water balance of recent years has shown that water resources are deficient in the upper part of the Yesil basin due to the increase in water consumption in the city of Nur-Sultan. Water availability in the Yesil basin in Russia reaches 4.77 thousand m3 / year (local flow).

The actual load on the water body associated with water intake reflects the indicator of water stress (Chigrinets 2009). For the Yesil, with average annual flow through the territory of Kazakhstan at 2.52 km3 / year (Surface water resources in areas … 1960) and


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average modern water intake from the surface water bodies of the basin at 0.174 km3 / year (2007-2016), the water stress indicator is 7%, which indicates the absence of water stress in the basin (Table 8).

Depending on the water content of the year, the indicator of water stress may vary. Thus, in the last decade there have been years with a moderate level of water resource shortages (2008-2011, 2015), as well as 2009 with a high level of water shortages.

The assessment of water resources, long-term and intra-annual flow dynamics of the River YYesil (Ishim) shows their dependence on natural factors and an increase in water consumption.

To solve the issues of conservation and rational use of water resources of the transboundary River Yesil in conditions of water scarcity in the upper and middle parts of the basin, it is necessary to regulate river flow and implement sustainable use of water resources using new technologies for water treatment and reuse.

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Table 8. The values of water stress in the Yesil river basin in 2007-2016 ( Surface water resources in areas of virgin ... 1960) Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Annual water resources, km3 0.48 0.29 0.78 0.61 1.1 1.82 1.64 0.75 3.43 Water abstraction from the surface of water resources, km3 0.168 0.166 0.17 0.17 0.174 0.172 0.178 0.181 0.17

Water stress, % 35.0 57.2 21.8 27.9 15.8 9.5 10.9 24.1 5.0

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