water, source of conflict ?

Water - Cause of Future Conflict?Scope

1 Introduction

2 Global State of Water as a Resource

3 Factors Affecting Distribution of Water

4 Ongoing Distribution/Sharing Conflicts

5 Situation in Sub-continent

6 Measures Towards Conflict Resolution

7 Analysis and Recommendations

8 Conclusion

Water - Cause of Future Conflict?

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Ban Ki-moonUN Secretary GeneralFirst Asia-Pacific WaterSummit, Beppu Japan,Dec 2007

”Water scarcity threatenseconomic and social gains andis a potential fuel for wars andconflicts”


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Ban Ki-moon

PremiseFreshwater is a necessity

Supply is fluctuating

Demand is increasing

Humans and nations arecompeting to secure thislimited resource

Result: potential conflict


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Wg Cdr Salman Aslam


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Sequence

1 Introduction

2 Issues

3 Solutions

4 Wrap-up


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Sequence : detailed

1 IntroductionTerminologyStatistics

2 IssuesSocio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political

3 SolutionsSocio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political

4 Wrap-upAnalysisRecommendationsConclusionBibliography and Acknowledgements


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up

TerminologyStatistics

WaterViews

Prof Andras Szollosi-NagyRector, UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water EducationFormer Director, Division of Water, UNESCO

If humanity can avoid nuclear holocaust in the 21st century,then water is going to be the most important issue to dealwith.


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


DefinitionsRelated to Interaction

ConflictA serious disagreement or argument, typically aprotracted one. 1

1http://www.oxforddictionaries.com


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http://www.oxforddictionaries.com

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


DefinitionsRelated to Hydroelectric Power

Run-of-the-riverA type of hydro-electric generation whereby little orno water storage is provided. 1

1http://www.reservoircapitalcorp.com/s/WhatIsRunOfRiver.asp


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http://www.reservoircapitalcorp.com/s/WhatIsRunOfRiver.asp

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


DefinitionsRelated to Water

River BasinThe area of land thatcontributes water to astream or river is called awatershed,river/drainage/catchmentbasin. 1

1http://www.kidsgeo.com/geology-for-kids/0076-drainage-basins-watersheds.php

2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drainage basin


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Latoria River drainage basin shaded inlight green, Romania. 2

http://www.kidsgeo.com/geology-for-kids/0076-drainage-basins-watersheds.php

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drainage_basin

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up



Wetland

Land consisting of marshes or swamps. 1

Riparian

Something related to or situated on the banks of ariver. 1



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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up



Pakistan, India and the Indus River

India: upper riparian statePakistan: lower riparian state

Punjab, Sindh and the Indus River

Punjab: upper riparian provinceSindh: lower riparian province


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up



Renewable resourceA resource which is replaced naturally and can beused again. 1

In this sense, water is a renewable resource.

1http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable resource


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http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_resource

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up



FreshwaterWater having a low salt concentration - usually lessthan 1%. 1

1http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/exhibits/biomes/freshwater.php


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http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/exhibits/biomes/freshwater.php

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up



Per capita water resources per year

The amount of water available to an individual for ayear.

For instance, for Pakistan in 2011, the per capita waterresources per year are

247 km3

176 million= 247,000 million m3

176 million= 1, 400 m3 per capita per year 1 2

1Peter H Gleick et al. (2014). The World’s Water : The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources. Vol. 8.

Island Press2

World Bank, United States Census Bureau. url: http://www.census.gov/popest/about/terms.html


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http://www.census.gov/popest/about/terms.html

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up



Related to per capita water resources per year aretwo terms:

Moderate to severe stress

Less than 1700 m3 waterper capita per year

Water scarce

Less than 1000 m3 waterper capita per year


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Per Capita Water Resources per YearGlobal View (2008)

Total renewable water resources in m3 per capita per year. 1 2

1The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (2010). Total Renewable Water

Resources per Capita by Country. url: http://chartsbin.com/view/14702

GreenFacts (2005). Water Availability Information for Pakistan. url:http://www.greenfacts.org/en/water-resources/figtableboxes/aquastat133.htm


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http://chartsbin.com/view/1470

http://www.greenfacts.org/en/water-resources/figtableboxes/aquastat133.htm

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


DefinitionsRelated to Water and Geology

Aquifer

Anundergroundlayer ofwater-bearingrock. 1

1National Geographic Society. Aquifer. url:

http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/encyclopedia/aquifer/?ar_a=1


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Aquifer.


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up



Water TableThe top of thewater level inan aquifer. 1




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Water Table.


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up



GroundwaterGroundwater is the water that seeps into the earthand is stored in aquifers. 1

There is 100 times more water in the ground than isin all the world’s rivers and lakes2

2US Geological Survey, Water Science School. Earth’s Water: Groundwater. url:

http://water.usgs.gov/edu/earthgw.html1

http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/freshwater/groundwater/


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http://water.usgs.gov/edu/earthgw.html

http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/freshwater/groundwater/

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


DefinitionsRelated to the Environment

Green-house EffectThe trapping of the sun’s warmth in a planet’slower atmosphere. 1



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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


UnitsVolume and Flow Rate

Volume

1 MAF (1 million acre foot)= 1 million acres × 1 foot= 1 million × 66 ft × 660 ft × 1 foot = 43,560 million ft3

≈ 1.2 km3

Flow Rate

1 cusec = 1 ft3/sec = 28 litres/sec = 0.028 m3/sec


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ProcessWater Cycle

Water Cycle. All units are in cubic km. 1

1http://www.elic.ucl.ac.be/textbook/chapter2 node9.html


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http://www.elic.ucl.ac.be/textbook/chapter2_node9.html

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Distribution of WaterNature’s Division

Oceans: 97%Fresh water: 3%

Surface water: 1%Ground water: 22%Frozen: 77%

Water distribution. 1

1http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/earth/geophysics/h2o1.htm


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http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/earth/geophysics/h2o1.htm

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Distribution of FreshwaterOur Division

70 to 80%: agriculture

10 to 20%: industry

10%: households

Global sum of all withdrawals. 1

1http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/water use/index.stm


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http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/water_use/index.stm

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up

Socio-EconomicGovernanceEnvironmentalGeo-political

Done with anintroduction.

Now, let’s lookat the issues.

1http://www.toonpool.com/cartoons/Hoping for water 144156


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Hoping for Water. 1

http://www.toonpool.com/cartoons/Hoping for water_144156

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Supply and DemandTrends

During the last halfcentury, per capitaresources have fallen

S. Asia: 40% to 50%Africa: 60% to 80%

Developing countries,increasing demand

Developed countries,decreasing demand

1www.capsweb.org


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More demand, less water. 1

www.capsweb.org

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Supply and DemandTrends

Climate change willincrease water resources

Shifts in rainfall will makematters worse for waterstressed countries

1www.capsweb.org


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More demand, less water. 1

www.capsweb.org

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Supply and DemandRising Population and Growing Cities

World population: 2x to4x

Richer people need morewater

Over half of the world’spopulation live in cities

1www.forbes.com


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Growing cities. 1

www.forbes.com

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Supply and DemandAgriculture

Global water use isdominated by agriculture

Irrigation can easilydouble crop yields

Just 18% of cropland isirrigated, but it produces40% of the world’s food

1oldwww.morningside.edu


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Agriculture. 1

oldwww.morningside.edu

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Supply and DemandAgriculture: Problems

Wasteful practices

Thirsty crops

Destruction of the soil,especially throughsalinization

Pollution of surface andgroundwater by fertilizers,herbicides and pesticides

1kaleandeggs.com


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Spraying pesticides. 1

kaleandeggs.com

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Supply and DemandAgriculture

Agricultural products account for nearly 70 to80% of global water useIn the world as a whole, rice is the staplecarbohydrateSaving of over 3 million litres of water per tonneof growing potatoes as compared to rice

Rice

21% of world water used

To grow one tonne: 3400 m3

Potatoes

1% of world water used

To grow one tonne: 250 m3


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Supply and DemandIndustry

Consumes 10% to 20% ofglobal water use

Developed countries,declining industrial wateruse

Developing countries,increasing industrial wateruse

1Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html


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Industry. 1


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Supply and DemandSummary

Rise in global demand for water shows no sign ofabating

Agriculture is the prime user

Urbanization is demanding more

Industrial demand is in check in most developingcountries

Industrial demand is growing in many parts of thedeveloping world


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


PovertyWater Problems

Migrants heading for thecities

Shanty towns foci fordisease and desperation

No piped connections

Poverty and Water. 1

1amoberg1.wordpress.com


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amoberg1.wordpress.com

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Water TradingReal vs Virtual

Real water: bottled water

Drop in the oceancompared with ”virtualwater”

Virtual water is waterneeded to grow crops andfodder, for animals todrink, and food processing

1www.waterdeva.com


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Virtual Water Trading. 1

www.waterdeva.com

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Water TradingImplications of Virtual Water Trading for National Security

Implications are importantfor national security

Countries in WesternEurope, Japan, Korea andthe Middle East aredependent on virtualwater imports

1www.waterdeva.com


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Virtual Water Trading. 1

www.waterdeva.com

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


TerrorismWater Supply Disruption

Disruption or poisoning ofwater supplies as a weapon

WWI, 1915, German troopspoisoned wells as they retreatedfrom Windhoek, NamibiaWWII, 1945, German troopsblew up a dyke in HollandWWII, British dam busteraircraft attacked the Germandams

1thinkprogress.org


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Water Terrorism. 1

thinkprogress.org

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


ProblemsGeneral

Fragmentedresponsibilities

Ineffective management

Overlapping interests andinter-institutional rivalry

Private profit-making

1apievangelist.com


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Bad governance characteristics. 1

apievangelist.com

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


ProblemsGeneral

Lack of coordinationbetween upstream anddownstream users

Inappropriate politicalinterference

Poor legal structures

Lack of enforcementmechanisms


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Bad governance characteristics.

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


ProblemsGeneral

Historical water rightsinhibiting fairer waterdistribution

Lack of public orstakeholder involvement


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


ProblemsCommunist Countries

Over-centralization

Underfunding

Lack of performanceincentives and jobs for lifefor Party members


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


ProblemsLaissez-faire Capitalist Countries

Too much fragmentationamong institutions

Excessive profit motive


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


CorruptionExample

Poor governance andinstitutional corruption

Added to woes of people

Example is Ethiopia

1www.bridgehousecollege.com


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Corruption. 1

www.bridgehousecollege.com

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Dams and DiversionsOverview

Fundamental tools ofwater engineering

Create and enhance waterresources

Lifeblood of civilization

1www.dawn.com


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Tarbela Dam. 1

www.dawn.com

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Dams and DiversionsUses

There are more than45,000 large dams

One Half: IrrigatedagricultureOne third: Principally forhydropowerOne-eight: Public watersupply


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Tarbela Dam.

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Dams and DiversionsDisadvantages

Destruction of theenvironment, especiallyendangered ecosystems

Displacement of people

Destruction of traditionallivelihoods


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Tarbela Dam.

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up



Riparian rights (Punjab vsSindh)

Serious impact on riversand wildlife

Withhold sediment andnutrients

Block migratory fish


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Tarbela Dam.

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up



Decimate fish life

Allow temperatures to riseand cause deoxygenationof the water

Dam failure,1975 Banqiao Dam,1979 Machchhu Dam

1http://bigdreamz.in/savemykerala/site/?articles=dam-disasters


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Banqiao Dam failure. 1

http://bigdreamz.in/savemykerala/site/?articles=dam-disasters

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


PrivatizationImpetus

1948: General Agreementon Tariffs and Trade(GATT)

1980s: Reagan andThatcher

1995: World TradeOrganization (WTO)

1h20privatization.blogspot.com


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Privatizing water. 1

h20privatization.blogspot.com

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


PrivatizationAdvantages

Funding for ageing andinefficient infrastructure

Better managers

Competition

Reduction in prices


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Privatizing water.

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


PrivatizationDisadvantages

The model does not fitwater as well as mostcommodities

Too important to beplaced in the privatesector


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Privatizing water.

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


EcosystemsDestruction

Twentieth centurydevelopment ignored linkbetween landscape andwater resources

1www.biodiversityofindia.org


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Wetlands, Moscow Russia. 1

www.biodiversityofindia.org

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up



Draining of wetlands

Destruction of forests

Intensive agriculture

Herbicides and pesticides

Large-scale engineering oflandscape

1www.biodiversityofindia.org


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Wetlands, Moscow Russia. 1

www.biodiversityofindia.org

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up



Overfishing

Destruction of aquaticenvironments

River engineering

1jmsc.hku.hk


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Overfishing. 1

jmsc.hku.hk

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


EcosystemsIrrigation and Salination

Irrigation has causedsalination of soil andwater since ancient times

Egypt, after completion ofAswan Dam

Desert reclaimed foragricultureThen lost to salinization

1www.knowledgebank.irri.org


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Salinity. 1

www.knowledgebank.irri.org

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pollution and DiseaseNeglect

During the twentiethcentury, population grewthree-fold

Water use increasedsix-fold

Water treatment failed tokeep pace

1www.enciclopediapr.org


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Water Pollution. 1

www.enciclopediapr.org

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pollution and DiseaseAgriculture

In developed countries,agriculture taking overfrom industry as thegreatest source of waterpollution

Spraying pesticides, herbicides andfertilizer. 1

1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green Revolution


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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pollution and DiseaseAgriculture: Green Revolution

Green Revolution (also inPakistan) 2

Between the 1940s andthe late 1960s

R&D and technologytransfer initiatives

Widespread pollution Spraying pesticides, herbicides andfertilizer.

1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green Revolution

2Akmal Hussain (2012). “The Green Revolution”. In: The Oxford Companion to Pakistani History. Ed. by

Ayesha Jalal. Oxford University Press, Karachi. url: www.akmalhussain.net/Publish%20Work/data/3.pdf


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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution

www.akmalhussain.net/Publish%20Work/data/3.pdf

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pollution and DiseaseAgriculture: Nitrates and Disease

Nitrates from agriculturalfertilizers

Cancer of brain andcentral nervous system

Spraying pesticides, herbicides andfertilizer.




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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Global WarmingTemperature Dependence

Global water resources arehighly sensitive totemperaturesReasons

EvaporationEffects on wind patternsConvectionRainfall distribution

1benthamsciencepublishers.wordpress.com


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Global Warming. 1

benthamsciencepublishers.wordpress.com

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Global WarmingSlide

Broad agreement amongall major Global ClimateModels

Warming is likely tocontinue




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Global Warming. 1


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Global WarmingCauses of Climate Change

Natural causes

Solar activity

Volcanic activity

Human activities




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Global Warming. 1


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Global WarmingGreenhouse Gases

Methane

Nitrous oxide

Water vapor (mostimportant)

1www.architecture.com


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Greenhouse Effect. 1

www.architecture.com

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Global WarmingPredicted Changes

Average annual water resources

Seasonal changes

Shift from snow to rain

Tropical storms and hurricanes

Impact on groundwater

Sea level rise

Storm surge floods

Sea ice and sea level rise

Falling lake levels1

onmilwaukee.com


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Storm. 1

onmilwaukee.com

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Water ConflictMost Apparent

The most obvious form ofconflict related to water

Around the world

1www.aljazeera.com


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Fighting in Sudan over water. 1

www.aljazeera.com

Water Conflicts in Recorded HistoryFrom 3000 BC till Present

A total of 343 water conflicts have been recorded all over theworld between 3000BC and 2014. 1

1Pacific Institute. Water Conflict Chronology Map. url: http://www2.worldwater.org/conflict/map/


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http://www2.worldwater.org/conflict/map/

River BasinsDistribution Around the World

The 25 major river basins of the world 1 out of a total of 260. 2

1GRID-Arendal. Main Worlds River Basins. url:

http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/water2/page/3226.aspx2

Circle of Blue (2008). U.S. Needs Integrated International Water Strategy to Avert Conflict, FosterCooperation. url: http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2008/world/policy-think-tank-calls-for-

water-bureau-in-washington/


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http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/water2/page/3226.aspx

http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2008/world/policy-think-tank-calls-for-water-bureau-in-washington/


River BasinsAsia

Asian water basins. 1 2

1International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) (2012). A Strategy and Results

Framework for ICIMOD. , p. 32

World Resources SIM Center (2010). Asian River Basins. url:http://www.wrsc.org/attach_image/asian-river-basins


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http://www.wrsc.org/attach_image/asian-river-basins

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


AustraliaMurder Over Water Restrictions

Sydney, 2007

66-year-old watering the frontlawn of his house

Watering allowed only two daysa week

Incident happened on allowedday

36-year old gets into disputeand kills older man

1http://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-11-01/man-charged-with-murder-after-lawn-watering-dispute/712826


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Debate about water restrictionsturn deadly. 1

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-11-01/man-charged-with-murder-after-lawn-watering-dispute/712826

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


North AmericaViolent Protests in Canada

Canada, 2013

Elsipogtog First Nation

Protest over the impacts tolocal water resources fromfracking operations

Several injuries were reportedand six police cars burned

1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elsipogtog First Nation


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Protests against fracking. 1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elsipogtog_First_Nation

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


South AmericaAmazon River Basin

Brazil’s controversial $13 billionBelo Monte dam

River Xingu, tributary ofAmazon River

Indigenous groups fear harm totheir way of life

Environmentalists warn ofdeforestation, greenhouse gasemissions and irreparabledamage to the ecosystem.

1http://blogs.nicholas.duke.edu/thegreengrok/deforestation/


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Amazon River Basin. 1

http://blogs.nicholas.duke.edu/thegreengrok/deforestation/

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


EuropeDanube River Basin

Gabkovo Nagymaros Dams onDanube

Conflict between Hungary andSlovakia

Hungary tried to terminateproject on economic andenvironmental grounds

International Court of Justiceintervenes

Not resolved1

http://www.slovakia.org/history-gabcikovo.htm


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Danube River Basin. 1

http://www.slovakia.org/history-gabcikovo.htm

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


AfricaNile River Basin

Sudan Civil War from 1983to 2005

Access to key resources,mainly water

1http://wwf.panda.org/about our earth/about freshwater/rivers/nile/


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Nile Basin. 1

http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/about_freshwater/rivers/nile/

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Middle EastJordan River Basin

Point of contention betweenIsrael and neighbors

Israel fought Six-Day Warof 1967 in large part tosecure water supplies

Pre-empt plans by Syriaand Jordan to damYarmouk River

1http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2010/08/01/jesus baptism river may be too toxic for modern baptisms/


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Jordan River Valley conflict. 1

http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2010/08/01/jesus_baptism_river_may_be_too_toxic_for_modern_baptisms/

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


PakistanStatistics: Area 1

Total: 796,095 km2

36th largest in the world

Land: 770,880 km2 ≈ 34 mill. km2

Water: 25,220 km2 ≈ 140 mill. km2

30:1, land:water




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Area comparison of Pakistan witheastern United States. 1


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


PakistanRivers

Pakistan and West IndiaSix major rivers

PakistanIndus, Jhelum, Chenab

IndiaRavi, Sutlej, Beas

1http://www.opinion-maker.org/2010/08/pakistan-say-no-to-floods/


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Pakistan: Rivers. 1

http://www.opinion-maker.org/2010/08/pakistan-say-no-to-floods/

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


PakistanIndus River

Origin: Tibet

Length: 3200 Km

Discharge rate: 6,600m3/sec


https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html2

http://earth.imagico.de/large.php?site=indus2


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Valley of the Indus River betweenNanga Parbat on the right and the

Karakoram Mountains at thehorizon. 2


http://earth.imagico.de/large.php?site=indus2

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


PakistanJhelum River

Origin: Jammu and KashmirLength: 725 Km 1

Discharge rate: 222 m3/sec

Verinag Spring in Jammu and Kashmir is believed to be the chief source. 2

1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum River

1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verinag


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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum_River

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verinag

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


PakistanChenab River

Origin: HimachalPradesh, India

Length: 960Km 1

Discharge rate:800 m3/sec

1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab River

2https://c1.staticflickr.com/3/2443/3762338923 a3770387d5 z.jpg


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Formed from the confluence of Chandra and BhagaRivers, Himachal Pradesh. 2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab_River

https://c1.staticflickr.com/3/2443/3762338923_a3770387d5_z.jpg

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


PakistanTarbela Dam (Topi, KPK)

Details 1

Construction: 1968-1977

River: Indus

Type: Storage

Storage: 14.3 km3

Discharge (main): 18,406 m3/s

Discharge (aux): 24,070 m3/s

Capacity: 3478 MW

1Water and Pakistan Power Development Authority (WAPDA) (2002). Tarbela Dam. url:

http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/pgeneration-dam-tarbela.html2

http://kbdam.blogspot.com/


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Location of Tarbela Dam. 2

http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/pgeneration-dam-tarbela.html


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


PakistanMangla Dam, (Mangla, Azad Kashmir)

Details 1


River: Jhelum

Type: Storage

Storage: 9 km3

Discharge (main): 28,000 m3/s

Discharge (emerg.): 6,500 m3/s

Capacity: 1000 MW

1Water and Pakistan Power Development Authority (WAPDA) (2010). Mangla Dam. url:

http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/water-dams-mangla.html2



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Location of Mangla Dam. 2

http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/water-dams-mangla.html


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs IndiaStatistics: GDP in millions, 2013 1

1 US: $16,720 (3.4%)2 EU: $15,850 (3.6%)3 China: $13,390 (4.3%)4 India: $4,990 (11.5%)5 Japan: $4,729 (12.1%)6 Germany: $3,227 (17.8%)7 Russia: $2,553 (22.5%)

...

27 Pakistan: $574 (100%)1

Central Intelligence Agency (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/pk.html


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs IndiaStatistics: Debt and Population 1

Public debt as % of GDP (2013)Pakistan: 54.6 (57th descending order)India: 51.8 (63rd descending order)

Population growth rate (2014)Pakistan: 1.49% (84th in descending order)India: 1.25% (94th in descending order)




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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs IndiaStatistics: Average rainfall/year, 2000-2014

Highest: 3240 mm (Colombia)

Average: 1157 mm

Lowest: 51 mm (Egypt)

India: 1083 mm (85th)

Pakistan: 494 mm (143rd)

1http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.PRCP.MM

2Pakistan Meteorological Department Climate Data Processing Center (CDPC). Pakistan Mean Rainfall,

1971-2000. url: http://www.pmd.gov.pk/cdpc/Pakistan_mean_rainfall.pdf


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62° E 64° E 66° E 68° E 70° E 72° E 74° E 76° E

62° E 64° E 66° E 68° E 70° E 72° E 74° E 76° E

24° N

26° N

28° N

30° N

32° N

34° N

36° N

24° N

26° N

28° N

30° N

32° N

34° N

36° N

Astore

Bunji

Ghari Dupatta

GilgitGupis

Kotli

Muzaffarabad

Skardu

Barkhan

DalbandinKalat

Khuzdar

Panjgur

Quetta

Zhob

Balakot

Cherat

ChilasChitral

Dir

Drosh

Kakul

Parachinar

Saidu Sharif

Murree

Hill Station

Jiwani

Lasbella

OrmaraPasni

Sibi

D.I.Khan

Kohat

Peshawar

Rafiqui

Risalpur

Bahawalnagar

Bhawalpur

Faisalabad

Islamabad

Jhelum

Khanpur

Lahore

Mianwali

Multan

Sargodha

Sialkot

Badin

ChhorHyderabad

Jacobabad

Karachi

LarkanaMoenjodaro

Nawabshah

Padidan

Rohri

Plain Station

A R A B I A N S E A

C H I N A

*(Based on 1971-2000)

I R A N

ANNUALMean* Rainfall (mm)

0 mm

200 mm

400 mm

600 mm

800 mm

1000 mm

1200 mm

1400 mm

1600 mm

1800 mm

CDPC

, Pakistan M

eteorological D

epartment

Pakistan mean annual rainfall from1971 to 2000 is 240 mm. 2

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.PRCP.MM

http://www.pmd.gov.pk/cdpc/Pakistan_mean_rainfall.pdf

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs IndiaStatistics: Renewable water resources 1 2

Total (2011)Pakistan: 247 km3

India: 1911 km3

Per capita per yearPakistan: 1,038 m3 (2008)India: 613 m3 (2010)



Central Intelligence Agency (2014a). The World Fact Book, India. url:https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/in.html


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https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/in.html

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs IndiaStatistics: Dams 1

1 China: 23,8422 USA: 9,2653 India: 5,102

...

30 Pakistan: 154

Size 1:4

Dams 1:33

1http://www.icold-cigb.org/gb/world register/general synthesis.asp?IDA=206

2http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List of rivers of Pakistan


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Pakistan, major dams andbarrages. 2

http://www.icold-cigb.org/gb/world_register/general_synthesis.asp?IDA=206

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rivers_of_Pakistan

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs IndiaBaglihar Dam

Details 1

Location: Jammu andKashmir


River: Chenab

Type: Run-of-the-river

Capacity: 900 MW

1Prof. Raymond Lafitte (2007). Baglihar Hydroelectric Plant, Expert Determination. World Bank. url:

http://water.worldbank.org/publications/indus-waters-treaty-articles-and-annexures-baglihar-

decision-expert-determination2

Circle of Blue (2008). U.S. Needs Integrated International Water Strategy to Avert Conflict, FosterCooperation. url: http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2008/world/policy-think-tank-calls-for-

water-bureau-in-washington/


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Location of Baglihar Dam. 2

http://water.worldbank.org/publications/indus-waters-treaty-articles-and-annexures-baglihar-decision-expert-determination

http://water.worldbank.org/publications/indus-waters-treaty-articles-and-annexures-baglihar-decision-expert-determination



IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs IndiaBaglihar Dam: Dispute

CIA World Fact Bookmentions this as atransnational dispute 1

1999: Pakistan claimedviolation of Indus WaterTreaty



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baglihar Dam


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Baglihar Dam. 2


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baglihar_Dam

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs IndiaBaglihar Dam: Ruling by Neutral Expert

2005: Pakistan asked WorldBank for neutral expert (NE) 1

2007: NE upheld some ofPakistan’s objections

Reduction of pond capacityReduction of dam height

1Usman Ahmad. The Inventory of Conflict & Environment (ICE), American University, Washington DC. url:

http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/baglihar.htm2



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Baglihar Dam. 2

http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/baglihar.htm


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs IndiaBaglihar Dam: Ruling by Neutral Expert

Non-gated control of spillwayrejected

India allowed storage of up to26,000 acre feet to flushsediments 1

Pakistan government expresseddisappointment

Both governments have agreedto abide by the final verdict

1Sardar Muhammad Tariq (2010). Pakistan-India Relations, Implementation of Indus Water Treaty, A

Pakistani Narrative. Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency. url:http://www.pildat.org/Publications/publication/FP/PakistanIndiaRelations-ImplementationofIndus-

WaterTreaty-APakistaniNarrative.pdf2



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Baglihar Dam. 2

http://www.pildat.org/Publications/publication/FP/PakistanIndiaRelations-ImplementationofIndus-WaterTreaty-APakistaniNarrative.pdf

http://www.pildat.org/Publications/publication/FP/PakistanIndiaRelations-ImplementationofIndus-WaterTreaty-APakistaniNarrative.pdf


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs IndiaKishanganga Dam

Details 1

Location: Jammu andKashmir, India

Start: 2007-2016 (exp)

River: Kishanganga(Neelum)

Type: Run-of-the-river

Capacity: 330 MW

1Circle of Blue (2008). U.S. Needs Integrated International Water Strategy to Avert Conflict, Foster

Cooperation. url: http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2008/world/policy-think-tank-calls-for-

water-bureau-in-washington/2

http://pak-today.blogspot.com/2013/02/kishanganga.html


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Location of Kishanganga Dam. 2



http://pak-today.blogspot.com/2013/02/kishanganga.html

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs IndiaKishanganga Dam: Dispute

Diversion of water toIndia

Diverted water returnedto Pakistan

Before return,downstream NeelumJhelum HydropowerPlant affected

1http://tribune.com.pk/story/648986/kishanganga-project-victory-claims-cloud-final-arbitration-award/


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Diversion of water for Kishanganga Dam. 1

http://tribune.com.pk/story/648986/kishanganga-project-victory-claims-cloud-final-arbitration-award/

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs IndiaKishanganga Dam: Ruling by International Court of Arbitration (ICA)

2011: Pakistan protest

Construction halted

2013: India allowed tobuild

India to maintain9 m3/second (cumecs)of water

1http://tribune.com.pk/story/648986/kishanganga-project-victory-claims-cloud-final-arbitration-award/


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Diversion of water for Kishanganga Dam. 1

http://tribune.com.pk/story/648986/kishanganga-project-victory-claims-cloud-final-arbitration-award/

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs AfghanistanStoring Water on the Kabul River: India’s Intervention

India plans to assistAfghanistan with waterprojects on Kabul River

13 dams planned

Total water storagecapacity of 4.7 MAF

25% more than that ofMangla Dam 1

1http://www.dawn.com/news/673055/sharing-water-resources-with-afghanistan

1pakhto-pakhtun.blogspot.com


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Kabul River. 2

http://www.dawn.com/news/673055/sharing-water-resources-with-afghanistan

pakhto-pakhtun.blogspot.com

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs AfghanistanStoring Water on the Kabul River: Pros and Cons

AdvantagesFlood controlElectricity generationIrrigated land of 12,000acres will increase by14,000 acres

Disadvantage: impactIran, Pakistan, Uzbekistanand Turkmenistan




97 / 132

Kabul River.


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs AfghanistanStoring Water on the Kabul River: Effect on Pakistan

17 MAF water entersPakistan through theKabul River every year

Supply will decrease by16% to 17%




98 / 132

Kabul River.


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs PakistanInternal Problems

High water losses

Drainage problems

Water-logging

Salinity

Mineralization of groundwater

1www.pakistankakhudahafiz.com


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Pakistan. 1

www.pakistankakhudahafiz.com

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up



Inter-provincial disputesIndus water apportionmentKalabagh Dam

Dramatic fall in wateravailability (per capita peryear)

1947: 5,000 m3

current: under 1,000 m3


100 / 132

Pakistan.

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up



Dependence on IndusBasin

Over-exploitation ofgroundwaterDeteriorating quality ofthe Indus water supply

Salinity: some 12 milliontons of salt added to theIndus basin each year




101 / 132

Pakistan.


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up



Pollution of surface andgroundwater

Rising water levels, leadingto the danger of floods

Neglect of maintenance




102 / 132

Pakistan.


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up



Water wasted throughseepages and lack ofstorage/utilizationinfrastructure




103 / 132

Pakistan.


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs PakistanInternal Disputes

Punjab vs Sindh beforepartition

1945, British imposedsolution

Remained in force till 1970

Then, disputes arose again

1www.gmat.com.pk


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Pakistan. 1

www.gmat.com.pk

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs PakistanInternal Disputes

Numerous commissionsfailed

Indus WaterApportionment Accord,1991

Waters fixed for eachprovince


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Pakistan.

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


We’ve lookedat the issues.

Now, let’s lookat somesolutions.

1http://www.conflicts.indiawaterportal.org/?q=node/31


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Different solutions. 1

http://www.conflicts.indiawaterportal.org/?q=node/31

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Cutting DemandSlide

Leakage reduction

Metering supplies

Recycling

Water-saving technology

Media campaigns

Efficient irrigation

Changing diets and lifestyles

Containing population growth

1www.kpbs.org


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Efficient irrigation. 1

www.kpbs.org

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Increasing SuppliesSlide

New sources of surface andground water

Exploiting cryosphere (frozenpart of Earth)

Rainwater harvesting

Harvesting fog and dew

Water beyond Earth

Desalination




108 / 132

Desalination plant in Spain. 1


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


ManagementViewpoints

Maintain physical waterresources

Maintain basin ecosystems

Sustain a balance betweensocial and physicalcomponents

1www.nonprofitlawblog.com


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Good Governance. 1

www.nonprofitlawblog.com

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


LawViewpoints

Absolute territorial sovereignty

Absolute territorial integrity

Limited territorial sovereignty(equitable utilization), HelsinkiRules

Berlin Rules include theenvironment


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Good Governance.

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


FinanceResponsibility

World Bank focusing onprojects with soundenvironmental and socialfoundations

Refused to fund Indiansponsored hydropowerscheme in Nepal in the1990s


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Good Governance.

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


AidPros and Cons

UN encourages developednations to contribute 0.7%of GDP to poor nations

In reality, 0.3 to 0.4%

Economists divided onefficacy


112 / 132

Good Governance.

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


AidPros and Cons

$1 trillion aid to Africa inlast 60 years

People worse off

Vicious cycle ofdependency, corruption,distortion in the markets

Some argue that necessarynow, even if inefficient


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Good Governance.

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Monitoring and Data ManagementEquipment

Monitoring andcommunication heart ofmodern watermanagement

Rain and river gauges

Weather radar

Meterological satellites

1www.thenational.ae


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Cutting water use in UAE farm. 1

www.thenational.ae

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Monitoring and Data ManagementSoftware Tools

One of the great advancesof last 50 years

Establishment ofinternational databases

1www.meteoshop.cz


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Visualizing weather data. 1

www.meteoshop.cz

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Prediction and Risk AssessmentOverview

Real-time forecasting

Improving risk assessment

1www2.ucar.edu


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Prediction. 1

www2.ucar.edu

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


ProtectionConservation, Preservation and Restoration

Legislation

Cleaning up the delta

Cleaning up groundwater

Treating unsafe water

Restoring the aquaticenvironment

Desalination1

www.bauder.co.uk


117 / 132

Protection banner. 1

www.bauder.co.uk

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Controlling the WeatherTechnological Innovation

Making rain

Making snow

Suppressing hail

Making clouds

1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud seeding


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Cloud seeding equipment on Cessna210. 1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_seeding

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Treaties and AgreementsIndus Waters Treaty 1960

Signing of Indus Waters Treaty. Signatories were Field Marshal AyubKhan, President of Pakistan and Shri Jawaharlal Nehru, Prime Minister

of India on 19 September 1960 in Karachi. 1

1http://pakistanpaedia.com/mega/megaprojects.html


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http://pakistanpaedia.com/mega/megaprojects.html

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Treaties and AgreementsIndus Waters Treaty 1960

22 page document

12 articles

8 annexuresEastern rivers

Sutlej, Beas, Ravi

Western RiversIndus, Jhelum, Chenab


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Treaties and AgreementsIndia Bangladesh, 1996

30-year Gangeswater-sharing arrangement

India recognizedBangladesh’s rights as alower-level riparian

1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farakka Barrage


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Farakka Barrage across GangesRiver in West Bengal close to

Bangladesh. 1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farakka_Barrage

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up

AnalysisRecommendationsConclusionBibliography and Acknowledgements

We’ve lookedat some issuesand solutions.

Now, let’sanalyze.

1http://www.funnyandjokes.com/sharks-looking-foward-to-global-warming.html


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Nice analysis! 1

http://www.funnyandjokes.com/sharks-looking-foward-to-global-warming.html

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


A variety of socioeconomic, governance andenvironmental issues determine the dynamics ofwater and fluctuations in its demand and supply

However, in general, demand for freshwater isincreasing and its supply is decreasing

Individuals and nations strive to secure their waterresources, leading to conflict on small and largescales

Several solutions are possible


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


1 Pakistan needs to take measures to store its riverwaters, such as through building dams

2 Pakistan needs to invest in technological innovationto increase freshwater supplies from groundwater,seawater and rainwater and monitoring quantities

3 Pakistan needs to engage its provinces as well as itsneighbors in negotiations to fairly solve outstandingwater sharing issues

4 Pakistan needs to take care of its environment


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


The supply of water is constant on our planet. Butfor freshwater, there is evidence of decreasing aswell as increasing demand, as well as evidence fordecreasing and increasing supplies. However, ingeneral, demand is increasing and supply isdecreasing. Coupled with this is the variabilityintroduced by climate change. The desire to controlwater has intensified amid this uncertainty and ismanifested in water related conflicts around theglobe. Pakistan must make efforts to secure itsfreshwater supplies from rivers, groundwater,sea-water and rain water. To ensure sustainability inthese supplies, Pakistan must look after itsenvironment.


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Bibliography IBooks

Briscoe, John and Usman Qamar (2006). Pakistan’s Water Economy:Running Dry. Oxford University Press Karachi.

Gleick, Peter H et al. (2014). The World’s Water : The Biennial Reporton Freshwater Resources. Vol. 8. Island Press.


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Bibliography IWebsites

Agency, Central Intelligence (2014a). The World Fact Book, India. url:https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-

factbook/geos/in.html.

– (2014b). The World Fact Book, Pakistan. url:https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-

factbook/geos/pk.html.

Ahmad, Usman. The Inventory of Conflict & Environment (ICE),American University, Washington DC. url:http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/baglihar.htm.


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http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/baglihar.htm

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Bibliography IIWebsites

Blue, Circle of (2008). U.S. Needs Integrated International WaterStrategy to Avert Conflict, Foster Cooperation. url:http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2008/world/policy-

think-tank-calls-for-water-bureau-in-washington/.

Center, World Resources SIM (2010). Asian River Basins. url:http://www.wrsc.org/attach_image/asian-river-basins.

Climate Data Processing Center (CDPC), PakistanMeteorological Department. Pakistan Mean Rainfall, 1971-2000. url:http://www.pmd.gov.pk/cdpc/Pakistan_mean_rainfall.pdf.

GreenFacts (2005). Water Availability Information for Pakistan. url:http://www.greenfacts.org/en/water-

resources/figtableboxes/aquastat133.htm.




http://www.wrsc.org/attach_image/asian-river-basins

http://www.pmd.gov.pk/cdpc/Pakistan_mean_rainfall.pdf



IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Bibliography IIIWebsites

GRID-Arendal. Main Worlds River Basins. url: http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/water2/page/3226.aspx.

Institute, Pacific. Water Conflict Chronology Map. url:http://www2.worldwater.org/conflict/map/.

National Geographic Society. Aquifer. url:http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/

encyclopedia/aquifer/?ar_a=1.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations(2010). Total Renewable Water Resources per Capita by Country.url: http://chartsbin.com/view/1470.

US Geological Survey, Water Science School. Earth’s Water:Groundwater. url: http://water.usgs.gov/edu/earthgw.html.




http://www2.worldwater.org/conflict/map/



http://chartsbin.com/view/1470

http://water.usgs.gov/edu/earthgw.html

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Bibliography IVWebsites

US Geological Survey, Water Science School. How Do HydrologistsLocate Groundwater? url:http://water.usgs.gov/edu/gwhowtofind.html.

Water and Pakistan Power Development Authority (WAPDA) (2002).Tarbela Dam. url: http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/pgeneration-dam-tarbela.html.

– (2010). Mangla Dam. url:http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/water-dams-mangla.html.

World Bank, United States Census Bureau. url:http://www.census.gov/popest/about/terms.html.


http://water.usgs.gov/edu/gwhowtofind.html



http://www.wapda.gov.pk/htmls/water-dams-mangla.html

http://www.census.gov/popest/about/terms.html

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


Acknowledgements

Sponsor DS for guidance

Members for encouragement and help


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Questions

The pond is now open, so please float yourquestions. 1

1http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2014/07/28/3-questions-you-need-ask-about-business-risk-assessment


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http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2014/07/28/3-questions-you-need-ask-about-business-risk-assessment

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up

Terminology

DefinitionsHydrology

Hydrology has evolved as a science in response tothe need to understand the complex water system ofthe earth and help solve water problems1

1http://water.usgs.gov/edu/hydrology.html


1 / 34Extra slides

http://water.usgs.gov/edu/hydrology.html

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up

Terminology

DefinitionsHydraulic civilization

According to the theories of the German-Americanhistorian Karl A. Wittfogel, any culture having anagricultural system that is dependent uponlarge-scale government-managed waterwork -productive (for irrigation) and protective (for floodcontrol). Wittfogel advanced the term in his bookOriental Despotism (1957). He believed that suchcivilizations - although neither all in the Orient norcharacteristic of all Oriental societies - were quitedifferent from those of the West.1

1http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/278180/hydraulic-civilization


2 / 34Extra slides

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/278180/hydraulic-civilization

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up

Terminology

ProcessHow Do Hydrologists Locate Groundwater?1

Rocks are the most valuable key of all

Existing wells provide clues

Conditions for large quantities of shallow groundwater are morefavorable under valleys than under hills

In some regions–in parts of the arid Southwest, for example–thepresence of ”water-loving” plants, such as cottonwoods orwillows, indicates groundwater at shallow to moderate depth

Areas where water is at the surface as springs, seeps, swamps,or lakes reflect the presence of groundwater, although notnecessarily in large quantities or of usable quality.

1US Geological Survey, Water Science School. How Do Hydrologists Locate Groundwater? url:



3 / 34Extra slides


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up

Terminology

DefinitionsDelta

A river delta is a landform that forms at the mouthof a river, where the river flows into an ocean, sea,estuary, lake, or reservoir.


4 / 34Extra slides

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up

Terminology

DefinitionsUnconfined Aquifer

An unconfinedaquifer is coveredby permeable rockand can receivewater from thesurface




5 / 34Extra slides

Figure : Unconfined Aquifer. 1


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up

Terminology

DefinitionsConfined Aquifer

A confined aquiferlies between twolayers of lesspermeable rocksand is filled withwater




6 / 34Extra slides

Figure : Confined Aquifer. 1


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up

Terminology

DefinitionsArtesian Well

An artesian well isa type of confinedaquifer that flowsupward to theEarth’s surfacewithout the needfor pumping




7 / 34Extra slides

Figure : Artesian Well. 1


IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up

PakistanHindu Kush Himalayan Region

Source of ten large Asianriver systems (the AmuDarya, Indus, Tarim,Ganges,Brahmaputra,Irrawaddy, Salween,Mekong, Yangtze, andYellow 1


Framework for ICIMOD. , p. 3


8 / 34Extra slides

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up

PakistanHindu Kush Himalayan Region

Provides water, ecosystemservices, and the basis forlivelihoods to a populationof more than 210 millionpeople

The basins of these riverssupply water to more than1.3 billion people 1

Figure : Area comparison ofPakistan with eastern UnitedStates. 1


Framework for ICIMOD. , p. 3Water - Cause of Future Conflict?

9 / 34Extra slides

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up

Indus Waters Treaty 1960Water Accord 1991

The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article I: Definitions

River

Tributary


10 / 34Extra slides

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article II: Provisions Regarding Eastern Rivers

”All the rivers of the Eastern Rivers shall beavailable for the unrestricted use of India”


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article III: Provisions Regarding Western Rivers

”Pakistan shall receive for unrestricted use all thosewaters of the Western Rivers which India is underobligation to let flow under the provisions ofparagraph (2) [Indus, Jhelum, Chenab].”


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article IV: Provisions Regarding Eastern and Western Rivers

”Pakistan shall use its best endeavours to constructand bring into operation, with due regard toexpedition and economy, that part of a system ofworks which will accomplish the replacement, fromthe Western Rivers and other sources, of watersupplies for irrigation canals in Pakistan which, on15th August 1947, were dependent on water suppliesfrom the Eastern Rivers.”


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SolutionsWrap-up


The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article V: Financial Provisions

Regarding Article IV, ”...India agrees to make a fixedcontribution of Pounds Sterling 62.06 milliontowards the cost of these works...”


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SolutionsWrap-up


The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article VI: Exchange of Data

”The following data with respect to the flow in, andutilisation of the waters of, the Rivers shall beexchanged regularly between the Parties:- ...”


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article VII: Future Co-operation

”... they declare their intention to cooperate ...”


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article VIII: Permanent Indus Commission

”India and Pakistan shall each create a post ofCommissioner for Indus Waters, and shall appoint tothis post, as often as a vacancy occurs, a personwho should ordinarily be a high-ranking engineercompetent in the field of hydrology and water use.”


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SolutionsWrap-up


The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article IX: Settlement of Differences and Disputes

”... breach .... shall first be examined by theCommission, which will endeavor to resolve thequestion by agreement.”

If not successful, a neutral expert

Next, governments

Next, a court of arbitration


18 / 34Extra slides

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article X: Emergency Provision

If Pakistan cannot construct works by 31st March1973, works referred to in Article IV (1), Pakistanwill tell the Bank and the Bank will notify each party.After this, consultations to reach mutual agreement.


19 / 34Extra slides

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article XI: General Provisions

This Treaty does not mean that any party haswaived off all rights outside this Treaty


20 / 34Extra slides

IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article XII: Final Provisions

Takes effect 1st April, 1960


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IntroductionIssues

SolutionsWrap-up


The Indus Waters Treaty 1960Article XII: Final Provisions

One of the main problems to emerge as a result ofthe 1960 Treaty was the geographic mismatchbetween rivers flowing in the west and irrigatedlands in the east. Tarbela Dam, the worlds largestearth-filled dam, and several link canals were built toensure supply of water to these lands.


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SolutionsWrap-up


Pakistan vs PakistanInter-provincial Disputes

Inter-provincial disputes, particularly between Punjab andSindh, considerably pre-date the creation of PakistanPre-Partition attempts by Punjab to construct irrigationinfrastructure on the Indus were opposed by SindhIn 1945 the British imposed a solution on the two provinces,which gave priority to Sindhs right to receive water from theIndusNo further sharing arrangement was made upon Partition, sothe British formula remained in force and was followed until1970Thereafter the federal government began allocating water onan ad hoc basis: its decisions favoured Punjab

Shahid Ahmad (2013). Water Cooperation for Inter-provincial Trust Building and Sharing Benefits of Apportioned

Water, Policy Issues and Options. Balochistan Partnerships for Sustainable Development. Ed. by

International Union for Conservation of Nature. url: http://cmsdata.iucn.org/downloads/ulr___water_

cooperation_for_inter_provincial_trust_building_and_sharing_benefits_of_a.pdf


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http://cmsdata.iucn.org/downloads/ulr___water_cooperation_for_inter_provincial_trust_building_and_sharing_benefits_of_a.pdf

http://cmsdata.iucn.org/downloads/ulr___water_cooperation_for_inter_provincial_trust_building_and_sharing_benefits_of_a.pdf

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Pakistan vs PakistanInter-provincial Disputes

Disputes between the provinces continued because of theperceived pro-Punjab bias in allocations, and because of theimpact of water infrastructure construction on the smallerprovinces

Numerous commissions were formed to resolve these issues butfailed to reach agreement until 1991


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BreakthroughInter-provincial Agreement

In 1991 the four Chief Ministers agreed the Indus WaterApportionment Accord

This allowed for a minimum flow of water into the sea, andshared the remainder between the four provinces

In this way, the Accord allowed for the erratic flow of water inthe Indus, and ensured that all provinces gained from surplusesor lost from shortages in supply


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BreakthroughInter-provincial Agreement

The distribution of water agreed was as follows:Punjab: 55.94 MAFSindh: 48.76 MAFNWFP: 5.78 MAF (+ 3.00 MAF for ungauged canals)Balochistan: 3.87 MAF

Balance river supplies (including flood waters and futurestorage) were to be distributed as follows:

Punjab: 37%Sindh: 37%NWFP: 14%Balochistan: 12%Total: 114.35 MAF (+ 3.00 MAF)Total: 100%


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Proposed RevisionProblems Again

In May 1994 the Punjab government again proposed a revisionof the ten-daily figures to base these on historical use

An Inter-10Ministerial Committee allegedly reached consensuson this arrangement, but the decision was challenged in thecourts which upheld the previous 1991 Accord arrangement

In practice, however, the smaller provinces accuse Punjab ofusing its upstream position and control of water infrastructureto implement sharing on the basis of historic use.


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Implementation IssuesProblems Again

The formula for water distribution was based on ten-dayaverage use, system-wise and seasonally adjusted (Kharif andRabi) figures provided by the provinces

The Council of Common Interests (CCI) met in September1991, six months after the Accord was signed, to agree theten-daily use figures

Punjab had wanted the figures to be based on historic usebetween 1977-82, the period during which ad hoc allocationsby the federal government had favoured the province

This proposal was opposed by the smaller provinces, andrejected by the CCI


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The formula for water distribution was based on ten-dayaverage use, system-wise and seasonally adjusted (Kharif andRabi) figures provided by the provinces

In May 1994, the Punjab Government again proposed arevision of the ten-daily figures to base these on historical use

The smaller provinces accuse Punjab of using its upstreamposition and control of water infrastructure to implementsharing on the basis of historic use

Sindh in particular contends that it has received less waterthan its entitlement under the 1991 Accord


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It says that the reduced flow is insufficient to meet minimumrequirements for inflow to the sea; seawater now comes up to100 km inland

The result of this is increased salination of lower Sindhagricultural lands, with subsequent adverse effects onecosystems, soil quality and deterioration in the quality andquantity of water supply to Karachi (both due to increasedsalinity and increased concentrations of pollutants) causingdiseases and health problems for vast populations

Another problem is the shrinking of the Indus basin mangroveforest, which is dependent on fresh water supplies


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Once the sixth largest in the world, this has reduced in size by38% between 1977 and 1990

The livelihood of thousands of people who depend on themangrove forests is threatened

In short, despite the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord, thereare significant disputes between the provinces over the currentdistribution of water


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Relationship to Kalabagh DamPunjab vs Sindh

The Water Accord of 1991 was entered into specifically fordeveloping consensus on Kalabagh dam

Why else would Punjab have agreed to a reduction in its ownshare in order to increase Sindhs share?

Why else would Punjab have agreed to Wapda being replacedwith IRSA?

Why else would Punjab have agreed to engineers from theSindh irrigation department being posted on major head worksof Punjab?

All these concessions become meaningless if Punjab was not toget the benefit of Kalabagh dam in return


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Necessity of damsSource of confusion

On signing the Accord all the provinces had agreed to thenecessity of more dams on all the rivers including on the Indusbut the Sindh delegation had requested that Kalabagh damnot be mentioned by name in the final draft

Therein lies all the confusion about the very purpose of theWater Accord.


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water, source of conflict ?

Environment

cause of future conflict

acknowledgementswater

basinwater cause

conflict resolution7

division of water

wars andconflictswater

water educationformer

little orno water storage