water systems, science, and practice module 2: lecture 3 ... · gepco tesco iesco pesco qesco kesc...
TRANSCRIPT
Lahore University of Management Sciences
Pakistan
Water Systems, Science, and Practice Module 2: Lecture 3 The Water-Energy-Food Nexus
Afreen Siddiqi, Ph.D. Research Scientist
March 17, 2016
2
Road Map
§ Session 1 – Introduction to Systems Analysis
§ Session 2 – Multi-Objective Decision Making
§ Session 3 – Water – Energy - Food Nexus
§ Session 4 – Global Perspectives on WEF
3
"How inappropriate to call this planet Earth, when clearly it is Ocean” Arthur C. Clarke
4
4
Canals in Ancient Egypt
Aquaducts of The Roman Empire
Hydraulic Civilizations: A Historical Perspective
5
Modern systems for water, energy, and food have become inter-connected
6
Understanding and accounting for these interconnections is important for resource use-efficiency, socio-economic growth, and
long term sustainability
l Food, water, and energy are increasingly inter-linked across different segments of their value chains
l water is used in extracting and processing fossil fuel, and cooling electric power plants
l energy is needed for pumping ground water, desalination, distribution, and treatment
l energy is used to power agricultural machinery, process and transport food
l adoption of bio-fuel has raised concerns for adequate food supply and use of water
Increased demands and new technologies have created the ‘water-energy-food’ nexus
7
Water security, food security and energy security are interrelated
Water-Energy-Food nexus conceptually recognizes the emergent and intensified interconnections
Addressing one problem in isolation may make other issues worse
8
Practitioners have raised concerns over scarcity of one resource impacting production of the other
impact
unce
rtai
nty
Source: World Economic Forum Energy Industry Issue Map 2007/2008
9
impact
unce
rtai
nty
Water
Source: World Economic Forum Energy Industry Issue Map 2008/2009
10
World Economic Forum: Global Risks Assessment 2011
The water-food-energy nexus
A cluster of risks within 37 selected global risks as seen by members of the World
Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Councils and supported by a survey of 580 global leaders
and decision-makers
l Demand for water, food and energy is
expected to rise by 30-50% in the next two decades
l Economic disparities incentivize short-term responses in production and consumption that undermine long term sustainability
l Shortages could cause social and political instability, geopolitical conflict and irreparable environmental damage.
l Any strategy that focuses on one part of the water-energy-food nexus without considering its interconnections risks serious unintended consequences
Source: Global Risks 2011, World Economic Forum.
11
Water Intensity of fuel production
Water Consumption of Energy Resource Extraction, Processing and Conversion, Mielke (2010)
12
Water Intensity of Electricity Generation
Water Consumption of Energy Resource Extraction, Processing and Conversion, Mielke (2010)
Elec
tric
ity g
ener
atio
n an
d co
olin
g te
chno
logi
es
Water consumption (gal/MWh)
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A key challenge in this century is to identify the emergent interconnections and provide convergent solutions
How does quenching our thirst for water increase our hunger for energy
and how does our appetite for energy
impact the cost of food
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
# of
pub
licat
ions
Journal publication trends show emergence of ‘nexus’ research on water, energy, and food
Data Source: Compendex database
US 35%
Australia 7% Turkey
5% UK 4%
China 4%
France 3%
Germany 3%
Spain 3%
India 3%
UAE 3%
Canada 2%
Sweden 2% Japan
2%
Netherlands 2%
Greece 2%
S. Korea 2%
South Africa 2%
Others 17%
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§ Problem
– Asbo'ledwateruseisexpandingaroundtheworld,thereisgrowinginterestintheenvironmental,economicalandsocialimplica:ons.
– Akeyques:onishowmuchenergyisrequiredtoproduceandusebo'ledwater-inotherwords-whatistheenergyfootprintofbo'ledwater?
Source: Gleick and Cooley, 2009
Energy Use in Bottled Water
16
Some Methods in Systems Analysis
§ Decision Analysis – MCDA – Cost-Benefit Analysis
§ Modeling and Simulation – Technical Models – Systems Dynamics – Monte Carlo Simulation – Agent Based Modeling – Networks modeling
§ Optimization – Linear – Non-linear: – gradient based methods – heuristics based methods
- Genetic Algorithms - Simulated Annealing
• Life Cycle Analysis • Input-output analysis • life cycle properties
• Stakeholders Analysis
17
§ LifeCycleAssessment(LCA)LCAisaprocessto1)evaluatetheenvironmentalburdensassociatedwithaproduct,processorac:vitybyiden:fyingandquan:fyingtheenergyandmaterialsused,andthewastesandemissionsreleasedtotheenvironment
2)assesstheimpactoftheseenergyandmaterialusesandreleasestotheenvironment3)iden:fyandevaluateopportuni:esthatleadtoenvironmentalimprovement
§ SocioeconomicAssessmentassessmentoflifecyclecostsanddeliveredbenefits,socialimpactsevalua:on
Source: Chang, 2011
18
§ Approach– 1.Quan:fykeyenergyinputs
– 2.Applyinputstothreeselectedsite-specificcases:- localbo'ledwaterusedandproducedinLosAngeles(LA)- waterbo'ledinSouthPacificandshippedviacargoshiptoLA- waterbo'ledinFranceandshippedinvariouswaystoLA
– 3.Evaluateresults
Source: Gleick and Cooley, 2009
Energy Use in Bottled Water
19 Source: Gleick and Cooley, 2009
Typical process for bottling water from a municipal or spring water source
20 Source: Gleick and Cooley, 2009
Flow Diagram showing where processes where energy is needed
in bottled water manufacturing, use and disposal
§ Energytoproducebo'ledwater– energyrequiredtomanufactureplas:cbo'les
– energyrequiredtoprepare(process)waterforbo'ling
– energytoclean,fill,sealandlabelbo'les
– energytotransportbo'ledwater
– energytocoolbo'ledwaterpriortouse
21 21
Source: Gleick and Cooley, 2009
Transportation energy costs (all values in megajoules per ton cargo per km)
Transportation scenarios for bottled water used in Los Angeles with distances by mode of transport
Data and Intermediate Results
22 Source: Gleick and Cooley, 2009
Total estimated energy requirements for producing bottled water
In comparison, producing tap water requires ~ 0.005 MJ/l
Key conclusions: For water transported short distances, the energy requirements of bottled water are dominated by the energy to produce the plastic bottles. Long-distance transport can lead to energy costs equal to the energy to produce the bottle. All other energy costs—for processing bottling, sealing, labeling, and refrigeration—are far smaller.
23
GDP
AGRICULTURE
SERVICES
INDUSTRY
POPULATION: 180 MILLION POPULATION GROWTH RATE: 1.8%
82% URBAN
20.1%
25.5% 54.4%
Pakistan
24
Irrigated-agriculture lies at the core of the water-energy-food nexus
Irrigated agriculture accounts for 40% of global crop production and grew 1.5% annually from 1950s-1990s
25
http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/irrigationmap/index10.stm
South-Asia has the most intensely irrigated large-scale agriculture system in the world
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l We base our analysis on the Indus basin in Pakistan l a country of 180 million people intimately dependent on the Indus
river for water, food, and energy è human impact
l acute shortage of energy and water, and insufficient access to nutrition
è necessary conditions present for action
l major institutional re-structuring and infrastructure planning under-way
è finite possibility of implementing solutions
Research Q: What is the energy intensity in large-scale irrigated agriculture in Pakistan?
27
Key Features of Surface Irrigation System
l ~129 km3 of water is diverted annually
to the canal network for irrigating 44 million acres
l There are large delivery losses (40% – 60%) in the surface system that has led to expansion of pumped irrigation
Indus basin irrigation system is among the world’s largest network of surface canals
28
0.000
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
Bill
ion
Cub
ic M
eter
s
Canal Withdrawal in Punjab
ThelineartrendforRabiisanaveragedecreaseof252BillionCMperyearTheoveralltrendisadecreaseof182BillionCubicmeterseachyearforcanalwithdrawalsinPunjab
Kharif (summer)
Rabi (winter)
Canal water availability has a slight declining trend over past decades (in the winter cropping season)
Total (annual)
Siddiqi, A. and Wescoat, J. L., “Energy use in large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Punjab province of Pakistan” , Water International (2013) 38 (5), pp 571-586.
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TubeWell Installations in Punjab - 2010
Legend
Pak_adm2_pco_ply_20101210!
! 1 Dot = 500
! TW95Tot
Tubewellsin1995
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Ü
Legend
Pak_adm2_pco_ply_20101210!
! 1 Dot = 500
! TWTot2010
Tubewellsin2010
DotDensity:1dot=500Tubewells
A conjunctive irrigation system has emerged with surface and ground water use that now depends on energy
Siddiqi, A. and Wescoat, J. L., “Energy use in large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Punjab province of Pakistan” , Water International (2013) 38 (5), pp 571-586.
30
Acute energy shortages are impacting all sectors of the economy
Estimated Electricity Deficit in 2011
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
MEPCO
Elec
tric
ity U
se [G
Wh]
Industrial Agricultural
FESCOGEPCO
TESCOIESCO
PESCO
QESCO
KESC
MEPCO
LESCO
HESCO
Energy Shortage Context in Pakistan
Siddiqi, et. al, “An empirical analysis of the hydropower portfolio in Pakistan”, Energy Policy, Vol. 50, 2012
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Analysis Approach: Top-down estimation coupled with bottom-up evaluation
31
3. Data Collection & Processing
Energy Year Book: HDIP NEPRA Reports Ministry of Water and Power Punjab Development Statistics
1. System Boundary Selection
PUNJAB
Ü
4. Top Down Estimation
6. Benchmarking 5. Bottom up Modeling & Estimation
7. Analysis !
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Ü
Legend
Pak_adm2_pco_ply_20101210!
! 1 Dot = 500
! TWTot2010
2. System Decomposition
canal system
pumping system
direct energy input
fertilizer input
farm machinery system
crop production
32
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1970
-71
1971
-72
1972
-73
1973
-74
1974
-75
1975
-76
1976
-77
1977
-78
1978
-79
1979
-80
1980
-81
1981
-82
1982
-83
1983
-84
1984
-85
1985
-86
1986
-87
1987
-88
1988
-89
1989
-90
1990
-91
1991
-92
1992
-93
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
Tube
wel
ls in
Pun
jab
Total Electric Tubewells Total Diesel Tubewells
off-grid distributed system
A massive pumping system draws water from the ground to augment surface water supplies for agriculture
33
Reported data of energy use in agriculture provides only partial information of total energy used in the sector
-
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1980
-81
1981
-82
1982
-83
1983
-84
1984
-85
1985
-86
1986
-87
1987
-88
1988
-89
1989
-90
1990
-91
1991
-92
1992
-93
1993
-94
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
20
08-0
9 20
09-1
0 20
10-1
1 20
11-1
2
k TO
E
Energy Use in Agriculture in Pakistan Agri Sector LDO [kTOE]
Agri Electricity in Pakistan [kTOE]
Data Source: Energy Year Book, HDIP (2010, 2012)
34
Top down data coupled with bottom up calculations were used to estimate energy use in agriculture
High Speed Diesel (HSD)
Light Diesel Oil (LDO)
Electricity
Tractors (< 55 HP)
Tractors (> 55 HP)
HSD Tube wells
LDO Tube wells
Electric Tube wells
Field Operations
Water Pumping
Fuel Type Farm Machinery Farm Operations direct energy use
Natural Gas Fertilizer Production
Fertilizer Application
in- direct energy use
35
HSD and LDO
§ Two main grades of diesel fuel are marketed in India and Pakistan, High Speed Diesel (HSD) and Light diesel oil (LDO).
§ HSD is a 100% distillate fuel while LDO is a blend of distillate fuel with a small proportion of residual fuel.
§ HSD is normally used as a fuel for high speed diesel engines operating above 750 rpm i.e. buses, lorries, generating sets, locomotives, pumping sets etc. Gas turbine requiring distillate fuels normally make use of HSD as fuel.
§ LDO is used for diesel engines, generally of the stationery type operating below 750 rpm
Ref: http://www.petroleumbazaar.com/hsd/hsdappli1.htm
36
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000
1,000,000
1970
-71
1972
-73
1974
-75
1976
-77
1978
-79
1980
-81
1982
-83
1984
-85
1986
-87
1988
-89
1990
-91
1992
-93
1994
-95
1996
-97
1998
-99
2000
-01
2002
-03
2004
-05
2006
-07
2008
-09
Tube
wel
ls in
Pun
jab
Total Electric Tubewells Total Diesel Tubewells
Pumping system and farming machinery stock levels used for bottom up estimation of HSD consumption
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
1994
19
95
1996
19
97
1998
19
99
2000
20
01
2002
20
03
2004
20
05
2006
20
07
2008
20
09
2010
20
11
Num
ber o
f Tra
ctor
s in
Pu
njab
§ Operation and usage data obtained from Punjab Agricultural Machinery Census of 1994 and 2004
§ Annual fuel use volume (Vkfuel) for
each type of element (power level and fuel use type) was estimated as:
where:
Sk: stock level of machinery in year k
cfuel: fuel consumption /hr
U: annual utilization
t: operating hours per day
d: number of operating days per year
€
Vfuel
k = Sk × c fuel ×Uk
U = t × d
37
Benchmarking of the results showed reasonable agreement with reported data
§ The ratio of HSD motors used for water pumping changes from 24% (of total installed base) in 1994 census to 80% in the 2004 census.
§ This shift in fuel type contributes to steady decline of LDO sales
§ We compared country-level results of Pak-IEM model (which is MARKAL adapted for Pakistan)
Agriculture Energy Use (2007)
Pak-IEM Estimate (Pakistan)
Pak-IEM derived estimate for Punjab
MIT Study data and results
Electricity 0.8 Mtoe 0.8 X 0.47 = 370 ktoe
312 ktoe
LDO 0.1 Mtoe 0.1 X 0.9 = 90 ktoe
81 ktoe
HSD 2.7 Mtoe - 2.4 Mtoe
Source: Pakistan Integrated Energy Model (Pak-IEM) – Final Report Vol. I, 2010
Electricity LDO HSD
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
k TO
E
Punjab Agri LDO Use bottom-up estimate of LDO use
38
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
1997
-98
1998
-99
1999
-00
2000
-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
2004
-05
2005
-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
k TO
E
Energy Use by Application and Fuel Type in Punjab Agriculture Electricity (pumping)
LDO (pumping)
HSD (pumping)
HSD (Farm Ops)
Water pumping is estimated to account for 61% of direct energy use in 2010 in farm-level operations
HSD TW pumping
Electric pumping
LDO TW pumping
field (HSD tractor) operations
Siddiqi, A. and Wescoat, J. L., “Energy use in large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Punjab province of Pakistan” , Water International (2013) 38 (5), pp 571-586.
39
Reported estimates for agriculture (that exclude HSD) show only a 3% share in total energy use in the province in 2010
Domestic 12%
Industry 12%
Agriculture 3%
Transport 34%
Power 35%
Govt. 2%
Commercial 2%
Reported Energy Use in Sectors (Punjab) [kToe] Domestic: 1764 Industry: 1785 Agriculture: 467 Commercial: 287 Transport: 5265 Power: 5305 Other: 366
Domestic 12%
Industry 12%
Agriculture 20%
Transport 17% Commercial
2%
Power 35%
Other 2%
Estimation Adjusted Energy Use in Sectors (Punjab) [kToe] Domestic: 1764 Industry: 1785 Agriculture: 3118 Commercial: 287 Transport: 2634 Power: 5305 Other: 366
Siddiqi, A. and Wescoat, J. L., “Energy use in large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Punjab province of Pakistan” , Water International (2013) 38 (5), pp 571-586.
40
Water, food, and energy security is about human welfare –the resource-use efficiency needs to be improved
At the provincial level in Punjab (between 1995-2010):
§ Direct energy intensity has risen 80% (from 1 to 1.8 MJ per kg of crop produced)
§ Fertilizer use intensity has risen 85% from 99 kg/ha to 184 kg/ha
§ Total crop production has increased only 31%
“Due to declining performance of the sector, as well as increased cost of inputs and inflation, the cost of food per head in the province has gone beyond Rs.3000 [$30] per month” (DAWN, March 25, 2013)
41
l Knowledge gap in resource inter-linkages is a major impediment towards improved policy
l Strategic organizational linkages, and enhanced rules for infrastructure planning
and resource policy can be easy first steps towards improving decision-making
l Understanding the linkages allows for inclusion of different stakeholders for finding creative solutions that would otherwise not be possible
Summary
42
Some key take-aways for system management
§ For unplanned change (evolution) there are increasing epistemic uncertainties – lack of adequate knowledge leads to inefficiencies – hides opportunities for improving performance – can have significant consequences on productivity and/or safety
§ For capital-intensive, large systems deployed by design there are often aleatoric uncertainties – e.g. demand is difficult to forecast accurately – system design needs to be strategically considered
43
QUESTIONS?
“The vast gains in human welfare from improved provision of food, energy and water – and the spectre of losing this access through shortsighted policies that fail to recognize the complex interactions of these three issues – suggest that the Energy Water Food nexus must be prioritized both by the analytical policy-support community and policy-makers” (Bazilian et al, Energy Policy, 2011)