web viewnote this is part 2 of week 18’s report. apologies for truncated report. status of us....

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 18-Part 2

Note this is part 2 of Week 18’s report Apologies for truncated report

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 18-Part 2Status of US and Aus Markets.

Green REDUSA DJA 1USA S&P500 1USA Nasdaq 1USA Russell 2000 1USA VIX (inverted (means Green is shown as RED)

1

USA DJA Futures 1USA S&P 500 Futures 1USA NASDAQ Futures 1USA Russell 2000 Futures 1Aus XJOAI 1AUS XMD 1AUS XSOAI 1AUS XVI (Vix) (inverted) 1

Overall market signals look mostly GREEN to me.

ASX Indices with ROAR above 20%

New section for this report. Here are the ASX indices which closed the week with ROAR (6 months rather than annual) above 20%. (purpose of this section….if an index is going up…perhaps consider looking at its component stocks to check for anything worth buying). (if it closed green for the week I’ll mention it)

Indices going up at or > 20% ROAR (6 mths) Indices that are positive and over 10% over 6 months ROAR.XEC emerging companiesXEJ ASX 200 energyXMJ ASX 200 MaterialsXSOAI Small Ords total returnXGD ASX 300 GOLDXJR ASX 200 ResourcesXMM ASX 300 Metals Mining.

Looking at the above table the following might be reasonable conclusion. “ if you’re not in small companies and mining companies…you’re not where the growth is in our market!”. Does any of your portfolio fit with that conclusion? If not what are you going to do about it or do you have a good reason to stay as you are?


VALUE index update

Let’s call the value index. How it works: Filter stocks with the following criteria

1. Financial health = strong or satisfactory2. Dividend yield >2.5%3. PE <154. Price to NTA per share above zero and under 55. Enterprise value above $500m6. Excludes mining stocks and most financials (as advised by Alan Hull)

2/4/2

017

2/18/2

017

3/4/2

017

3/18/2

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4/1/2

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4/15/2

017

4/29/2

017

5/13/2

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5/27/2

017

6/10/2

017

6/24/2

017

7/8/2

017

7/22/2

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8/5/2

017

8/19/2

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9/2/2

017

9/16/2

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9/30/2

017

10/14/2

017

10/28/2

017

11/11/2

017

11/25/2

017

12/9/2

017

12/23/2

01702468

1012141618

Search for Value count

We search for (a) sharp increase or (b) decrease in stocks found by this filter. If there are many stocks here then “buying value stocks might be a good strategy”…. If there are few perhaps it indicates we’re at the top of the market?


Stocks worth assessing as suitable for purchase if conditions are right this weekWe’re fully invested at the moment…so we won’t be buying unless one of our stocks is sold.

Strategy 1 securities Strategy 2 StocksA2M* ABP*AGI BPT*ALU* CDA*APX* CSR*AWC* CTXBKL HFA*CGC* KMD*CIM* NHCGDI RCGIAA* RIOIEM* VLW*IFLIZZMIN*MLDMTRNHCORARFF*SDATWE*WHC*

Note this week I’ve completely updated the list and personally would be prepared to buy any of the stocks or ETFs on the above list provided that the markets were trending up on the day of buying. As you can see I do already personally own many of the stocks on the list above.

Strategy one = stocks with (a) acceptable fundamentals plus (b) are rising at over 20% (or close) on a 6 month ROAR basis or are ETFs with a growing price trend

Strategy two = stocks with high return on assets and low PE and acceptable market support.


Bonus Charts: In this section I’ll sometimes list a chart that catches my eye and provide a brief comment.

If you want a stock reviewed, perhaps email me and I might include it (no promises)

Chart CommentBKL

Strong Stock ROA 19%+ EPSG June 18 +28% forecast PEG 0.95 forecast Average daily trade $5.2m Div Yield above 4% (forecast)

Is Blackmores back? Maybe worth a look

IEM* 5, 3 and 1 yr return: 9%, 9% and

20%. Div yield about 1% Daily Turnover about $1m

As you can see this ETF has given a steady return over the past 5 years and provides a way to diversify your portfolio away from Australia and is currently trending up. What’s not to like?

SDA Speedcast Australia 3 and 1 year returns are 33% and

23% PE is 18 prospective and PEG is 0.35

I’ve not come across this company before and yet I like what I see, perhaps worth a look for your portfolio

3 Hour Investor Newsletter incorporating the “Newsletter Portfolio” Year 2. Week 18-Part 2Parting comment

Each of these charts show some interesting moves in the past week.

USA’s small companies index is roaring up over the past few weeks

Australia’s small ordinaries index has also popped up in recent weeks after about a year in the doldrums

Maybe the market is seeing value at the smaller end of the market.

Bond prices are taking a bit of a dive (implying higher interest rates)…the money seems to be going into small stocks


What does it all mean? Here are the things that I remind myself of

We are at least one day closer to a big correction I have to be in the market to make a return…If I’m out of the market my return is fixed in

Australian dollars are below 2% which is not a happy place to be. If I’m in the market I must be ready to sell Things change, views change, markets shift…often not that quickly…but fast enough that I

have to be nimble with my views and respond accordingly. If I sit still I’ll lose money. What are you watching for in regards to your portfolios?

Warning. This newsletter is provided for your entertainment only, I’m not a financial adviser, I have not taken account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should therefore consider the appropriateness of any descriptions of my Newsletter and its newsletter portfolio in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs, before taking any actions.

All views and information expressed in this newsletter are not the views of Lincoln and or its directors, agents, representatives and employees.

Many of the graphs and screen shots are taken from Lincoln services and are fully credited to them. I’m a paid up licensee to Lincoln, otherwise all IP in their system and graphs belongs totally to them. I recommend that you consider signing up to their service…it’s a great service and I feel great value for money!

I do invest and trade in shares, I’ll usually mark the ones that I own with (**)…however it’s safe for you to imagine that I’m either buying or selling just about any stock in the market, particularly and especially if mentioned here.

web viewnote this is part 2 of week 18’s report. apologies for truncated report. status of us....

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