webcast k q3_2012_earnings
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THIRD QUARTER 2012FINANCIAL RESULTSNovember 1, 2012
Forward-Looking StatementsThis presentation contains by reference, “forward-looking statements” with projections concerning, among other things, the integration of the Pringles® business, the Company’s strategy, and the Company’s sales, earnings, margin, operating profit, costs and expenditures, interest expense, tax rate, capital expenditure, dividends, cash flow, debt reduction, share repurchases, costs, brand building, ROIC, working capital, growth, new products, innovation, cost reduction projects, and competitive pressures. Forward-looking statements include predictions of future results or activities and may contain the words “expects,” “believes,” “should,” “will,” “anticipates,” “projects,” “estimates,” “implies,” “can,” or words or phrases of similar meaning. The Company’s actual results or activities may differ materially from these predictions. The Company’s future results could also be affected by a variety of factors, including the ability to integrate the Pringles® business and the realization of the anticipated benefits from the acquisition in the amounts and at the times expected, the impact of competitive conditions; the effectiveness of pricing, advertising, and promotional programs; the success of innovation, renovation and new product introductions; the recoverability of the carrying value of goodwill and other intangibles; the success of productivity improvements and business transitions; commodity and energy prices; labor costs; disruptions or inefficiencies in supply chain; the availability of and interest rates on short-term and long-term financing; actual market performance of benefit plan trust investments; the levels of spending on systems initiatives, properties, business opportunities, integration of acquired businesses, and other general and administrative costs; changes in consumer behavior and preferences; the effect of U.S. and foreign economic conditions on items such as interest rates, statutory tax rates, currency conversion and availability; legal and regulatory factors including changes in food safety, advertising and labeling laws and regulations; the ultimate impact of product recalls; business disruption or other losses from war, terrorist acts or political unrest; and other items.
Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they were made, and the Company undertakes no obligation to update them publicly.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures. This presentation includes the following non GAAP financial measures: internal net sales, ‐internal operating profit, cash flow and adjusted earnings per share. Please refer to the Appendix for a reconciliation of these non GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.‐
2
Third Quarter 2012 Overview
Sales growth on-track with full-year expectations
Strong performance in North America
Improving trends in Europe
Investing for growth in Asia Pacific and Latin America
Pringles performing better than expected
3
Growing Confidence in Pringles
4
Sales growth exceeded expectations
Great people
Integration on track
Summary of Financial Results
($ millions, except EPS)Third Quarter 2012
Kellogg Company
Reported Growth
Internal Growth
Reported Growth
Internal Growth
Net Sales (a) $ 3,720 12.3% 2.8% 10,634 4.4% 1.7%
Operating Profit (a) $ 479 3.2% -4.9% 1,499 -5.1% -5.4%
Reported Earnings Per Share $ 0.82 2.5% 2.66 -2.6%
EPS, excl. integration costs (b) $ 0.86 7.5% 2.77 1.5%
Third Quarter 2012
$
Year-to-Date 2012
$
5
(a) Internal net sales and operating profit growth exclude the impact of foreign currency translation and if applicable, acquisitions and dispositions. In addition to these items, internal operating profit growth also excludes the impact of transaction and integration costs associated with the Pringles acquisition.
(b) Please refer to Appendix 5 for a reconciliation of this non GAAP financial measure to the most directly comparable ‐GAAP financial measure.
Net Sales Components(year-over-year, % change)Third Quarter 2012
6
3Q 2011 Net Sales
Volume Price / Mix Acq./Div. Currency 3Q 2012 Net Sales
0.1%
$3.31 B
+ 2.7%
11.1%
Internal Growth 2.8%
+12.3%
(1.6)% $3.72 B
Gross ProfitThird Quarter 2012
40.7%Margin(a)
7
Q3 2011 Q3 2012
$1,350
$1,442
40.7%Gross Margin (a)
(a) Reported gross profit as a percent of net sales
38.8%
Gross Margin % impacted by:- Continued commodity
inflation- The quarter’s recall - Pringles
+7%
Brand-Building(a) Investment(brand building $)Third Quarter 2012
10%Y-O-Y Change Int. Growth (b)
Incr./(Decr.)
4% (9)% (3)%
2011
8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012
(4)%
Q1 Q2
(5)%
Higher in 4Q
(a) Brand building includes advertising, consumer promotions, COGS promotions, and excludes trade spending.(b) Internal brand building growth excludes the impact of foreign currency translation and if applicable,
acquisitions , dispositions and integration costs.
7%
Q3 Q4E
Internal Operating Profit Performance by Area
(year-over-year % change, internal performance(a))Third Quarter 2012
9
North America $ 381 -1.6% +10% brand building and6% growth excluding recall
Europe $ 84 -7.7% In-line with guidanceand sequential improvement
Latin America $ 35 -16.7% Trade inventory reductionsand +DD brand building
Asia Pacific $ 29 -3.4% Better performance and+DD brand building
(a) Internal operating profit performance excludes the impact of foreign currency translation and if applicable, acquisitions and dispositions. In addition to these items, internal operating profit growth also excludes the impact of integration costs associated with the Pringles acquisition.
Cash Flow(a)
Year-to-date 2012
10(a) Kellogg defines cash flow as cash from operating activities, less capital expenditures. Please refer to Appendix 1 for a
reconciliation of this non GAAP financial measure to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure.‐
40.7%Margin(a)
YTD 2010 YTD 2011 YTD 2012
$827$877
$1,113
Full Year
Lower by 4 – 6%
2 – 3%
$3.18 – 3.30
Internal Net Sales (a)
Internal Operating Profit (a)
EPS
2012 Outlook
11
(As Reported, including Pringles)
Including the Impact of the Recall, but excluding the impact of Pringles
(a) Internal net sales and operating profit growth exclude the impact of foreign currency translation and if applicable, acquisitions and dispositions. In addition to these items, internal operating profit growth also excludes the impact of transaction and integration costs associated with the Pringles acquisition.
First Quarter
2%
12(a) Internal net sales growth excludes the impact of foreign currency translation and if applicable, acquisitions and
dispositions.
North American Growth
(internal net sales growth(a), year-over-year % change)
2012
4%4%
Second Quarter Third Quarter
U.S. Snacks(a)
Third Quarter 2012
13(a) Includes U.S. cookies, crackers, cereal bars, savory snacks, and fruit-flavored snacks businesses.(b) Internal net sales growth excludes the impact of foreign currency translation and if applicable, acquisitions and
dispositions.
(internal net sales MM)
$725 $729 $727 $702 $742$803
$865
2012
Q4Q3Q2Q1
2011
Q1
0.3% Growth(b)
Q3Q2
4.1% Growth(b)
2.3% Growth(b)
U.S. Specialty(a)
(a) Includes food service, convenience and Girl Scouts businesses.(b) Internal net sales growth excludes the impact of foreign currency translation and if applicable, acquisitions and dispositions.
Third Quarter 2012
14
(internal net sales MM)
$323
$232 $234 $219
$348
$252 $264
2012
Q4Q3Q2Q1
2011
Q1
5.5% Growth(b)
Q3Q2
6.3% Growth(b)
7.8% Growth(b)
North America Other(a)
(a) Includes U.S. Frozen and Canadian businesses.(b) Internal sales growth excludes the impact of foreign currency translation and if applicable, acquisitions and dispositions.
Third Quarter 2012
15
(internal net sales MM)
$358 $343 $359
$311
$368 $369$388
2012
Q4Q3Q2Q1
2011
Q1
5.2% Growth(b)
Q3Q2
8.9% Growth(b)
3.4% Growth(b)
U.S. Morning Foods & Kashi(a)
(a) Includes U.S. cereal, Pop-Tarts, health and wellness, and Kashi businesses.(b) Internal net sales growth excludes the impact of foreign currency translation and if applicable, acquisitions and
dispositions.
Third Quarter 2012
16
$958
$927
$897
$829
$941 $939 $946
2012
Q4Q3Q2Q1
2011
Q1
5.4% Growth(b)
(internal net sales MM)
Q3Q2
1.2% Growth(b)
-1.7% Growth(b)
Morning Foods and Kashi
DavidDenholm
First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Year-to-Date
-1.7
1.2
5.4
1.6
Morning Foods and Kashi
(internal net sales growth(a), year-over-year % change)
Quarterly Growth 2012
(a) Internal net sales growth excludes the impact of foreign currency translation and if applicable, acquisitions and dispositions. 18
Cereal: Morning Foods and Kashi
(internal net sales growth(a), category share(b)
Sales and Share Growth, Third Quarter 2012
(a) Internal net sales growth excludes the impact of foreign currency translation and if applicable, acquisitions and dispositions.
(b) Year-over-year change. Source: A.C. Nielsen, 12-Weeks ended 10/1/12, xAOC, RTEC Category19
Net Sales Growth +6%
Category Share +0.3 pts.
Morning Foods Q3 Highlights
Olympic Execution
Strong Brand Building
Successful Innovation
• Path to Purchase• Digital Activation• Largest PR Program
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Cereal Innovation Share Leader(rolling share)
(a) Source: Nielsen Scantrack 1/1/10 –9/8/12
50%
35%
Kellogg (w/Kashi) Next Biggest Competitor
Share of RTEC Innovation (xAOC) (a)
21
Pop-Tarts – “30 Years of Growth”(year-over-year $ growth 2001 - 2011)
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Iconic Brand
Good Economics
Strong Execution
1981
Continual Growth
22
Morning Foods — Pop-TartsSales and Share Growth, Third Quarter 2012
(a) Internal net sales growth excludes the impact of foreign currency translation and if applicable, acquisitions and dispositions.
(b) Source: A.C. Nielsen, 12-Weeks ended 10/1/12, xAOC, Toaster Pastry Category, year-over-year change.
(internal net sales growth(a), category share(b)
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Net Sales Growth +6%
Category Share +0.5 pts.
Pop-TartsAn Iconic Kellogg Brand
Clear Leader in Toaster Pastries!
1.Break-through advertising
2.Big innovation platforms
3.Win in-store every day
(a) Source: AC Nielsen xAOC, Dollar Share (52 weeks ending 9/22/12)24
Pop-Tarts 84% share(a)
U.S. Morning Foods & Kashi – Summary
Excellent Categories
Good Share Performance
Iconic Brands
Great Team
25
First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter-4%
-1%
1%
(a) Internal net sales growth excludes the impact of foreign currency translation and if applicable, acquisitions and dispositions.
International Growth
(internal net sales growth(a), year-over-year % change)
2012
26
(2)%
4%
7%
International Growth
(internal net sales growth(a), year-over-year % change)
Third Quarter 2012
27
Latin America
Europe
Asia Pacific
(a) Internal net sales growth excludes the impact of foreign currency translation and if applicable, acquisitions and dispositions.
SUMMARYSETTING THE FOUNDATION
28
Summary
Strong performance in North America
Improving trends in Europe
Investing for growth in Asia Pacific and Latin America
Pringles performing better than expected
Sales growth on-track with full-year expectations
Appendix 1Reconciliation of Kellogg-Defined Cash Flow to GAAP Cash Flow (a)
29
(a) We use this non-GAAP financial measure of cash flow to focus management and investors on the amount of cash available for debt repayment, dividend distributions, acquisition opportunities, and share repurchases.
September 29, October 1,(unaudited) 2012 2011
Operating activitiesNet income $955 $997Adjustments to reconcile net income to operating cash flows: Depreciation and amortization 302 270 Deferred income taxes (40) (2) Other 57 133Postretirement benefit plan contributions (43) (187)Changes in operating assets and liabilities 144 58
Net cash provided by operating activities 1,375 1,269
Less:Additions to properties (262) (392)
Cash flow $1,113 $877
Year-to-date period ended
Appendix 2
30
Analysis of net sales and operating profit performanceThird quarter of 2012 versus 2011
U.S.Morning Foods U.S. U.S. North America North Latin Asia Corp- Consoli-
(dollars in millions) & Kashi Snacks Specialty Other America Europe America Pacific orate dated
2012 net sales 946$ 865$ 264$ 388$ 2,463$ 685$ 292$ 280$ -$ 3,720$ 2011 net sales 897$ 727$ 234$ 359$ 2,217$ 585$ 274$ 236$ -$ 3,312$
% change - 2012 vs. 2011:Volume (tonnage) (a) .5% -2.2% -3.5% 9.0% - .1%Pricing/mix 3.2% -.3% 7.1% -2.2% - 2.7%
Subtotal - internal business (b) 5.4% .3% 5.5% 5.2% 3.7% -2.5% 3.6% 6.8% - 2.8%Acquisitions (c) -% 18.7% 7.4% 3.2% 7.4% 25.7% 6.6% 18.4% - 11.3%Dispositions (d) -% -% -% -% -% -% -% -2.8% - -.2%Foreign currency impact -% -% -% -.2% -% -6.0% -3.6% -3.9% - -1.6%
Total change 5.4% 19.0% 12.9% 8.2% 11.1% 17.2% 6.6% 18.5% - 12.3%
U.S.Morning Foods U.S. U.S. North America North Latin Asia Corp- Consoli-
(dollars in millions) & Kashi Snacks Specialty Other America Europe America Pacific orate dated137$ 116$ 62$ 66$ 381$ 84$ 35$ 29$ (50)$ 479$ 134$ 94$ 64$ 65$ 357$ 84$ 43$ 23$ (43)$ 464$
% change - 2012 vs. 2011:Internal business (b) 2.7% -3.0% -8.6% -1.4% -1.6% -7.7% -16.7% -3.4% -6.1% -4.9%
Acquisitions (c) -% 33.5% 5.5% 3.2% 10.4% 19.1% 2.0% 27.3% -6.4% 12.4%Dispositions (d) -% -% -% -% -% -% -% 7.9% -% .4%Integration impact (e) -% -7.8% -% -% -2.1% -7.9% -.8% -2.6% -7.8% -3.9%Foreign currency impact -.1% -% -% -% .1% -4.0% -.6% -.8% -% -.8%
Total change 2.6% 22.7% -3.1% 1.8% 6.8% -.5% -16.1% 28.4% -20.3% 3.2%
(a) We measure the volume impact (tonnage) on revenues based on the stated weight of our product shipments.
(b) Internal net sales and operating profit grow th for 2012, exclude the impact of acquisitions, divestitures, integration costs
and impact of currency. Internal net sales and operating profit grow th are non-GAAP financial measures w hich are reconciled to the
directly comparable measures in accordance w ith U.S. GAAP w ithin these tables.
(c) Impact of results for the quarter ended September 29, 2012 from the acquisition of Pringles.
(d) Impact of results for the quarter ended September 29, 2012 from the divestiture of Navigable Foods.
(e) Includes impact of integration costs associated with the Pringles acquisition.
2012 operating profit 2011 operating profit
Appendix 3
31
Analysis of net sales and operating profit performanceYear-to-date 2012 versus 2011
U.S.Morning Foods U.S. U.S. North North Latin Asia Corp- Consoli-
(dollars in millions) & Kashi Snacks Specialty America Other America Europe America Pacific orate dated
2012 net sales 2,826$ 2,410$ 864$ 1,125$ 7,225$ 1,836$ 836$ 737$ -$ 10,634$ 2011 net sales 2,782$ 2,181$ 789$ 1,060$ 6,812$ 1,840$ 816$ 715$ -$ 10,183$
% change - 2012 vs. 2011:Volume (tonnage) (a) -1.0% -6.1% -2.7% 3.9% - -1.8%Pricing/mix 4.0% .6% 8.6% -1.8% - 3.5%
Subtotal - internal business (b) 1.6% 2.2% 6.7% 5.8% 3.0% -5.5% 5.9% 2.1% - 1.7%Acquisitions (c) -% 8.3% 2.9% 1.4% 3.2% 10.9% 2.4% 8.0% - 4.9%Dispositions (d) -% -% -% -% -% -% -% -3.3% - -.2%Foreign currency impact -% -% -% -1.1% -.1% -5.6% -5.9% -3.7% - -2.0%
Total change 1.6% 10.5% 9.6% 6.1% 6.1% -.2% 2.4% 3.1% - 4.4%
U.S.Morning Foods U.S. U.S. North North Latin Asia Corp- Consoli-
(dollars in millions) & Kashi Snacks Specialty America Other America Europe America Pacific orate dated479$ 351$ 188$ 206$ 1,224$ 234$ 134$ 79$ (172)$ 1,499$ 491$ 329$ 185$ 198$ 1,203$ 287$ 152$ 79$ (142)$ 1,579$
% change - 2012 vs. 2011:Internal business (b) -2.6% -2.6% -1.1% 4.5% -1.2% -16.3% -7.4% -11.4% -2.1% -5.4%
Acquisitions (c) -% 11.9% 2.7% 1.1% 3.9% 6.1% .6% 7.9% -2.1% 4.3%Dispositions (d) -% -% -% -% -% -% -% 6.7% -% .4%Integration impact (e) -% -2.6% -% -% -.7% -4.9% -.3% -1.8% -17.8% -3.2%Foreign currency impact .1% -% -% -1.3% -.3% -3.5% -4.4% -.7% -% -1.2%
Total change -2.5% 6.7% 1.6% 4.3% 1.7% -18.6% -11.5% .7% -22.0% -5.1%
(a) We measure the volume impact (tonnage) on revenues based on the stated weight of our product shipments.
(b) Internal net sales and operating profit grow th for 2012, exclude the impact of acquisitions, divestitures, transaction and integration costs
and impact of currency. Internal net sales and operating profit grow th are non-GAAP financial measures w hich are reconciled to the
directly comparable measures in accordance w ith U.S. GAAP w ithin these tables.
(c) Impact of results for the year-to-date period ended September 29, 2012 from the acquisition of Pringles.
(d) Impact of results for the year-to-date period ended September 29, 2012 from the divestiture of Navigable Foods.
(e) Includes impact of transaction and integration costs associated with the Pringles acquisition.
2012 operating profit 2011 operating profit
Appendix 4
32
Reconciliation of 2012 Earnings per Share Guidance
Base KelloggBase Business $3.27 – $3.34Pringles Accretion 0.11 – 0.13Share Repurchases (0.05) – (0.05)Currency (0.05) – (0.05)
3.28 – 3.37Pringles One-TimeIntegration Costs (0.14) – (0.17)Transaction-Related 0.03 – 0.03Tax Benefit 0.04 – 0.04
(0.07) – (0.10)
Reported EPS $3.18 – $3.30
Q3 Guidance
Appendix 5
33
Reconciliation of GAAP Earnings per Share to Adjusted Earnings per Share(a)
(a) We use this non-GAAP measure of earnings per share to focus management and investors on earnings per share excluding the impact of costs related to the integration of the Pringles business.
Third Quarter 2012
Year-to-date 2012
Reported Earnings per Share $0.82 $2.66
Transaction and Integration Costs $0.04 $0.11
Adjusted Earnings per Share $0.86 $2.77