webcongress panama 2014 - war is over - what's next after the smartphone wars?
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What's next after the Smartphones war?TRANSCRIPT
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WEBCONGRESS PANAMA edfernandez @efernandez
What´s Next after The Smartphones War ?
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Really?
Not so fast…
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8 Billion still to go?
You just said
the smartphone
war was over
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Diffusion of innovations: Everett Rogers. 1962
World is here
US is there
Smartphone Penetration
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Source: KPCB internet trends 2014 report. Morgan Stanley Internet report 2009.
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ap·par·el /əˈperəl/
Noun US formal
1. Clothing. synonyms:
clothes, clothing, garments, dress, attire,
wear, garb, getup
wear·a·ble /werəb(ə)l/
Noun US formal
1. An item that can be worn.
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OMsignal: bio-sensing apparel Heart Rate, Breathing, Steps
We, humans, become the
interface
Rise of the Natural
User Interfaces (NUI)
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Things get “smartified”
All of Them Smart contact lens for diabetics Blood sugar reading in tears 1/sec
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Mind Reading Facial expressions:
Blink Left wink
Right wink Furrow (frown)
Raise brow (surprise) Smile
Clench teeth (grimace) Glance left
Glance right Laugh
Smirk (left side) Smirk (right side)
Mental commands: Neutral Any of up to 4 pretrained items from a list of 13 labels:
Push Pull Lift Drop Left Right Rotate clockwise Rotate anticlockwise Rotate forwards Rotate backwards Rotate left Rotate right Disappear
Emotional States: Instantaneous excitement
Long term excitement Frustration
Engagement Meditation
Interest/ Affinity
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What’s making this possible?
1. Technology Evolution Laws
2. Tech economy driven by Asymmetric Business models
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Computing capacity Moore’s Law Computing power doubles every 18-24 months. Costs cut by a half. Bandwidth capacity Gilder’s & Nielsen’s Doubles every 2 years - wired Doubles every 2.5 years - wireless (Cooper’s Law) Digital storage capacity Kryder’s Law Doubles every 2 years.
Technology Evolution Laws
2yrs 2x /
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Asymmetric Business Models Android OS is free to foster Google’s mobile services/ads Apple invests in iTunes & developer ecosystem to foster HW sales We sign up for web services/apps for free in exchange for personal data If you’re not paying for it, you are the product
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‘Truth’ is a tweet, photo or video clicked & sent away
New definitions of ‘success’-
money may not be
Access to luxury vs owning luxury – Rise of sharing economy & EaaS
(Everything as a Service)
Self-realization and self-actualization happens now also online
(Win)^3:
You help me, I help you, we help others
Klout score in your resume from now onwards
Global thinking, global objectives -
collective intelligence arising (Singularity)
People
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Entrepreneur generation • Reduced sense of security since terrorist attacks 2001 • Destabilized economy Financial crisis since 2008 • High unemployment levels – ‘Evil’ corporations • Increasing perceived fiscal pressure – self sustain or
live out of the system • Pervasive & cheap computing everywhere • Tech-entrepreneur heroes – Dorsey, Zuckenberg,
Larry, Sergey • All tools you need in the web: crowdfunding yourself
(kickstarter, onevest) • No loss aversion fostering self driven entrepreneurship
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edfernandez @efernandez
www.about.me/ed.world
gratefully KPCB: MaryMeeker, 2014 Internetreport VisionMobile: MobileMegatrendsreport Fjord: AnnualTrendsReport2014 JWT: 100ThingsToWatch2014 Horace Dediu Asymco
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