webinar with planalytics, feb. 26, 2015
TRANSCRIPT
Copyright © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential
THE WORLD IS CHANGING … Deborah Weinswig
Executive Director–Head Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre
Webinar with Planalytics – Feb. 26, 2015
Copyright © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential
The Current Retail Business Environment
• Falling gas prices = windfall for US consumers
• Employment trends
• West Coast port impact
• Fashion Trends, Spring 2015
• Calendar Impact
Copyright © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential
Falling Gas Prices = Windfall for U.S. Consumers • Gas prices are down about 40% since June, one of the steepest drops since
the 2008 financial crisis. Adds an extra $750 into consumer wallets on an annualized basis.
Through January 31, 2014 Regular grade average Source: Energy Information Administration and Haver Analytics
(60%)
(50%)
(40%)
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15
Weekly U.S. Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon)
Gas Price YoY% Change
$2.26
Copyright © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential
4
Real Personal Disposable Income and Wages Begin to See Gains
• Wages and salaries expanded at a 4.8% YoY rate in December, the fastest pace in 2014
• The increase beat the 4.6% YoY increase in personal income, laying the foundation for a possible acceleration in consumer spending in 2015
• For 2014, wages and salaries increased 4.3%, again beating the 3.9% gain in personal income.
• Walmart & TJX raise hourly wages Through December 31, 2014 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Real Disposable Income & Wages and Salaries YoY %
(8)
(6)
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Wages & Salaries Disposable Personal Income
4.8 3.7
Copyright © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential
West Coast Port Impact
100 ships are still held up: 800,000 containers are currently backlogged
• Late arrival of seasonal products, such as flip flops & peat moss, will affect overall sales
• Will affect retailers potentially into early summer
Copyright © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential
Top 8 Fashion Trends, Spring 2015
1. Bohemian to minimalism, it all works for Spring 2015
2. New denim silhouettes – dresses, skirts and flared bottom pants
3. Hippy deluxe, complete with Marrakech maxi dresses
4. Uneven hemlines, peekaboo fabrications, see-through inserts and just sultry sheer
Copyright © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential
Top 8 Fashion Trends, Spring 2015
5. The Statement Coat
6. Mix and Match, designers and prints
7. Platform shoes iterate into Flatforms
8. The Princess effect—with Cinderella opening March 13 glistening (not glass) shoes and slippers, tiaras and princes are the season’s must have
Copyright © 2015 Planalytics, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential
Calendar Impact
• An early Easter (15 days earlier than 2014) limits sales of Spring apparel
• Should set up for strong March comparisons
could add one percentage point to March YoY sales growth
and subtract one percentage point in April
APRIL 2014 Passover: April 14 – 22 Easter: April 20
APRIL 2015 Passover: April 3 – 11 Easter: April 5