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PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!

Tuesday, July 31, 2012 !2:00 PM EDT/11:00AM PDT!

Shyam Mehta !Senior Analyst !GTM Research!

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Speaker:!

Shayle Kann!Vice President, Research!

GTM Research!!

Moderator:!

PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!

Annual Flagship Report!

GTM Research: Supply-Side Coverage!

For more information, contact [email protected] or call 617-500-6243 Purchase online at www.gtmresearch.com!!

Ongoing Data and Market Intelligence!

Additional Resources and Analysis!

PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!Shyam Mehta, Senior Analyst, Solar

Report Scope!

Source: PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016!!

§  Technology Analysis!

§  Current Industry Status !

§  Manufacturing Cost Structure Estimates!

§  Production Capacity Forecasts!

§  Market Forecasts!

§  Competitive Positioning and Industry Dynamics! !§  300 pages, ~250 exhibits, >300 firms covered!

What’s New?!


§ Technology Analysis: Focus on Next-gen Technologies!Ø  Cast/Quasi-mono ingot growth!Ø Diamond wire sawing!Ø  Selective emitter!Ø Cost of ownership and efficiency analysis!

§  Manufacturing Cost Structure: Unprecedented Granularity!Ø  Line-item specific inputs for all key consumables!Ø  Differentiation by manufacturing location, technology/sub-technology, cost profile!Ø  Data collection and benchmarking across >50 industry sources!

§  Market Forecasts: Robust Methodologies!Ø  ”Smart” capacity forecasting based on capital availability, buy-build decisions, comp. positioning!Ø  Multivariate regression-based price forecasting!Ø  Buy-build analysis!

§  Competitive Positioning: More Comprehensive than Ever Before!Ø  Analysis along all key determinants (cost, bankability, business/tech/product differentiation, brand)!Ø Maps evolution of market taxonomy and consolidation dynamics with market outcomes for specific firms (winners, acquisition candidates, question marks, market exits)!Ø  Analyzes module supplier strategies, especially for non-Chinese firms!

Technology Analysis: Cell Efficiency!


Commercialized Cell Efficiencies, Q4 2009-Q4 2016E!

Must differentiate by crystal structure, wafer type, and sub-technology (selective emitter, backside passivation, etc)!


Overcapacity: To Persist As Long As China Continues Supporting Uncompetitive Firms!Ramped Capacity vs. Global Installations, 2007-2016E!

Cost Structure Buildup: Silicon Cost/Usage!


c-Si Cast Mono+Diamond Wire+Selective Emitter, Q4 2009-Q4 2016E!

Cost Structure Buildup: Module Processing!


1 GW EU/JP/US Fab, Cast Mono c-Si + Selective Emitter!

Cost Structure Buildup: All-in Module Cost!


$1.33

$1.09

$0.96

$0.64

$0.55$0.51

$0.47 $0.46

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

$/W

All-in Module Cost Including Scale Gains, Vertically Integrated Fab, China Best-in-Class, Q4 2009-Q4 2016E

Silicon Ingot/Wafer Cell Module All-in Module Plant Capacity (MW)

How to Estimate Manufacturer-Specific Costs?!


Estimation of Blended Manufacturing Cost, Canadian Solar China!

Price Forecasting: Multivariate Regression!


Predicted vs. Actual PV Component Prices, Q4 2007-Q4 2011!

Independent variables: !1.  Manufacturer costs (supplier-side variable) – Q4 all-in cost!2.  Supply-demand balance indicator (demand-side variable) – overcapacity ratio!

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Competitive Analysis: The Metrics that Matter!


Supply Stacks: A Useful Heuristic for Competitive Positioning Analysis!


Efficiency/Performance-Adjusted Module Supply Stack, Q4 2015E!

When Will the Pain Stop?!


Blended Component Gross Margins, Q4 2009 - Q4 2016E!

Upstream Capacity: Buy or Build?!


Wafer Price vs. All-in Cost for Internal Consumption, Q4 2009-2016E!


The Evolution of the Competitive Landscape!


Thank You!!

Shyam Mehta!Senior Analyst, Solar!GTM [email protected]!!

Annual Flagship Report!

GTM Research: Supply-Side Coverage!

For more information, contact [email protected] or call 617-500-6243 Purchase online at www.gtmresearch.com!!

Ongoing Data and Market Intelligence!

Additional Resources and Analysis!

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