wednesday, april 17, 2019 indian elections, south asian … · 2019-04-17 · #70929 delhi the...
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DELHI THE HINDU
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 17, 20198EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
CMYK
A ND-NDE
EDITORIAL
Gurjit Singh
Indonesia’s singleday and complex elections are today. The rematch, after 2014, between in
cumbent President Joko ‘Jokowi’Widodo of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) andhis challenger, Prabowo Subiantoof the Great Indonesia MovementParty (Gerindra) will decide whattrajectory the country will take over the next fi��ve years.
The result will have an impacton the domestic economy and polity, with both candidates havingfi��netuned their positions since2014. Indonesian foreign engagements will also see a change depending on whether it pursues itsown IndoPacifi��c strategy and anAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)plus foreign policy.Given its large population, mainlyMuslim, its growing middle classand market and its strategic location, the election is of interest tothe region.
Political highlightsIn 2019, the Election Commissionapproved 16 parties to run for par
liament. Mr. Jokowi’s coalition has338 out of 560 current MPs to Mr.Subianto’s 222 MPs. Indonesianlaw requires that political partieshave at least 20% of the seats inParliament, or 25% share of thepopular vote, before they cannominate a presidential candidatein 2019. If the Democratic Party offormer President Susilo BambangYudhoyono had not supported Mr.Subinato’s bid, his candidacywould have failed and Mr. Jokowimay have been the only candidate.The churning in parties like theGolkar and National Mandate Party (PAN) which were fi��rmly withMr. Subianto in 2014 has made achange in Indonesian politics.
Indonesia has a GDP of over $1trillion (2017 fi��gures) and a growthrate of about 5%. Its population isnearly 270 million. Its diverse natural resources include abundantcoal and palm oil. Changing traderules are having an eff��ect on theIndonesian rupiah. In the runupto these elections and after, thedominant themes are the growingdebt, social and economic inequalities, the role of Islam in politics as well as fake news.
Mr. Jokowi remains the man tobeat, as he is still popular and seento be sincere and honest eventhough he has not fulfi��lled all hiscampaign promises of 2014. Anelection in 2017 for Jakarta Governor, seen as a barometer to the
2019 election, threw up a surpriseresult when ‘Ahok’ Basuki TjahajaPurnama, backed by Mr. Jokowi’sparty, lost to Anies Baswedan, supported by Mr. Subianto. In 2017,Mr. Ahok was sentenced to twoyears in prison on a charge of blasphemy. For 2019, Mr. Jokowi’s running mate is Indonesian UlemaCouncil Chairman Ma’ruf Amin,The choice of Ma’ruf Amin, 76, isseen as a response to the Muslimbacklash faced in the Jakarta election. That Mr. Amin had a hand intoppling Mr. Ahok on charges ofblasphemy is now just a footnotein these elections.
What they stand for Mr. Jokowi is also seen to be proChinese, having pledged supportfor the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and being a vocal supporter of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Some analysts feel thatMr. Jokowi could face problems for
the largesse he shows to China. Hehas even handed over to China aprestigious highspeed railwaythat was proposed by the Japanesein 2015, but which has still not taken off��. His support to Chineseovertures to build infrastructurefor Indonesia has often seen others shut out, at Chinese behest, orby a tweaking of rules. Most Chinese engagement is through public sector entities, which are nowin heavy debt since the sovereignguarantee route was not applied tokeep up with constitutional normsof debt and defi��cits. Due to theslow pace of the BRI projects, many public sector units have seriousdebt issues. But these are not theideas which win elections and Mr.Jokowi’s fi��nger on the popularpulse through welfare measures,including the ‘Indonesia HealthCard’, has won him support.
Mr. Subianto presents a morenationalistic image with an emphasis on security, balanced foreign policy, more local manufacturing, and a just social order. Heis seen to be more open to partnerships with countries besides China, having said so at an Indonesianeconomic summit in 2018. His support to business is seen throughhis choice of running mate for2019, ‘Sandi’ Sandiago Uno, 49, awealthy former fund managerwho was Jakarta Deputy Governor(201718). The latter is seen as pro
business, particularly the privatesector. Being young and social media savvy, he could get the supportof millennials, who form about30% of the electorate.
India and Indonesia haveshared friendly relations. Mr. Jokowi paid a bilateral visit in 2016 andagain in 2018 for an ASEAN commemorative summit in New Delhi.Prime Minister Narendra Modipaid a visit to Jakarta last year aspart of a threenation tour. Thetwo leaders have given shape toseveral ideas on infrastructure,strategic partnership, naval andarmy cooperation and trade andcommerce. The dialogue amongfaiths is on, and there is closercooperation on counterterrorismand other nontraditional threats.They have diff��erent views on China, but it is not seen as a hindranceto the bilateral relationship. If Mr.Jokowi wins, as polls predict, therelationship will be on fi��rmer footing than it is now.
However, India need not worrytoo if Mr. Subianto wins. He seesmany models in India’s development that are worth emulating. Hecould, in fact, open more strategicspace and markets for India, buthe would need time to settle downas he has little prior experience inadministration.
Gurjit Singh is a former Indian
Ambassador to Indonesia
Implications of the Indonesian voteThe contenders for President may be very diff��erent, but either way ties with India are set to deepen
AP
more letters online:
www.hindu.com/opinion/letters/
The staggering scale of theelection that is under way inIndia with just under a bil
lion voters is hard for the mind tograpple with, even in this denselypopulated neighbourhood that includes Bangladesh and Pakistan.The level of worry is also at a pitch,for India should be the bulwarkagainst weakening democracy in aworld of Bolsonaro (Brazil), Duterte (the Philippines), Erdoğ��an(Turkey), Putin (Russia) andTrump (the U.S.) not to mentionthe People’s Republic of China.
Redefi��ning IndiaModern India, created by M.K.Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru andtheir cohort, should be raising thestandard for social justice andgrassroots democracy, andagainst destructive rightwing populism. This has not quite beenPrime Minister Narendra Modi’srecord, and hence the concernthat another fi��ve years would redefi��ne the very idea of India.
Already, the term ‘world’s largest democracy’ is achieving banality as India gains majoritarianmomentum. Centralised controlof society would never be possiblein such a vast and variegated society of subnationalities, we weretold, but look at what ishappening.
The high principle and probityof India’s political class, bureaucracy, academia and civil societyare now exceptions rather thanthe rule. India’s Ambassadors areno longer the selfconfi��dent professionals we knew for decades,they act today like timid notetakers. Higher education is directedby those who insist that theachievements of Vedic era scienceincluded fl��ying machines and organ transplants. Meanwhile, theadventurism that marked econom
ic management, including immiseration through demonetisation,has been ‘managed’ through loyalsocial and corporate media.
Intellectual toadyism and cronycapitalism have overtaken NewDelhi on a subcontinental scale,but sooner than later this drift towards regimented society andwhispered dissent must be reversed. Too much is at stake fortoo many citizens — India mustrevert to the true, messy and contested democracy we have knownand appreciated.
Soft powerParliamentary democracy is thegovernance procedure adopted byeach and every country of SouthAsia, and the Indian practice hasalways been held up as the example. The precedents set by India’scourts are studied elsewhere, theprofessionalism of the civil serviceis regarded as the benchmark, andeveryone else seeks the aspirational welfare state set in motion in India in the middle of the 20th century. This is why we watch worriedas Indian democracy weakens instep with its economy, as intercommunity relationships withinIndia descend to onesided animus, and as New Delhi’s globalclout decreases in inverse proportion to Beijing’s.
To cover weaknesses in governance and promises undelivered,Mr. Modi as the solo electoral faceof the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)has whipped up a tornado of militarised nationalism that projectsPakistan as the exclusive enemy.No one dares remind the Indianvoters that Pakistan is the farweaker power; its people are battling fanatical demons more thanare Indian citizens; Pakistan is alarge potential market for India’sgoods and services; and the futureof Kashmir must be based on Article 370 of the Indian Constitution.
Meanwhile, Lahore intellectuals watch with apprehension asIndia copies the excesses of Pakistan’s theocratic state. Dhaka observers are numbed into silencewith New Delhi’s vigorous backingof Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina
Wajed as she constructs an intolerant oneparty regime. Colomborides a geopolitical seesaw as NewDelhi shadowboxes Beijing. AndKathmandu wonders whetherNew Delhi has it in itself to concede that the amplifi��ed Chinese involvement in Nepal is the result ofthe Great Blockade of 201516.
Coy on BeijingIndia has been reduced to a giantnervously fi��ngercounting friendsmade or lost to China. The mediatriumphalism that greets evenmodest shifts in India’s favour — beit in Male or Thimphu — marks unnecessarily low selfesteem. NewDelhi seems preoccupied with‘managing’ South Asian countrieswhen it should be commandingthe global platforms on climate alteration, protection of pluralismand correcting imbalances in global wealth.
Few note the incongruity of aNew Delhi loudly daring Islamabad while acting coy on Beijing,which one would have thoughtwas the real adversary or competitor. Meanwhile India’s celebratedsoft power wilts even as the Chinese work to wipe out their English defi��cit, and Beijing placesConfucius Institutes in far corners.Chinese goods fl��ood the Indianmarket, Chinese research and development gallops ahead of India’s, and Beijing convincinglymoves to tackle environmentaldegradation.
India seems drowsy and lethargic in contrast. South Asia as awhole — much of it the historical‘India’ — roots for Indian democracy even while welcoming Chineseinvestment, infrastructure loansand tourists. Also because it hasthe largest population in the Sub
continent, India is expected tolead South Asia on myriad issuesincluding the deathdealing IndoGangetic smog, fertilizer and pesticide use, crossborder vectors, arsenic poisoning, regional commerce and economicrationalisation, social inclusionand the Human Development Index and so on. But leadership requires humility, to study, for example, how adjacent societieshave successfully tackled greatchallenges — look at Bangladeshsurging towards middle incomecountry status.
Nepal has long been regardedby exasperated New Delhi policymakers as the South Asian basketcase sending out migrant labour toIndia. This much is true, but it alsoemerges that the Nepal economyis the seventh largest sender of remittance to India after the UAE,the U.S., Saudi Arabia, the U.K.,Bangladesh and Canada. Unlikethese others, Nepal’s remittancesgo to India’s poorest parts, in Bihar, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh andWest Bengal.
We switch on India’s news channels and fi��nd an abysmal commondenominator in terms of civilityand rationality. The national intelligentsia seems intimidated, unable to challenge the rigid, dangerously populist narrative of theBJP/Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh(RSS). We watch as the NationalRegister of Citizens propels statelessness, as the refoulement ofRohingya refugees points to a reckless disregard for fundamental humanitarian principles, and as majoritarianism weakens the pillar ofrepresentative democracy that isthe protection of minorities.
Regionalism’s importIndia is indeed large and important, but the chest size of a country does not translate into equity,social justice or internationalstanding. Because nearly 20% ofhumanity lives within its boundaries, when India falters, the pit ofdespair and the potential for violence open up wide and deep.
The South Asia that New Delhi’spolicy and opinionmakers should
consider is not the centralisedJambudvipa megastate of the RSSimagination. Instead, the idealSouth Asian regionalism is allabout limiting the power of the national capitals, devolving power tofederal units and strengthening local democracy.
Mr. Modi’s own idea of regionalism is one where he calls the shots.The start of his current term wasmarked by an attempt to dictate tothe neighbours, after which thependulum swung to the other extreme. The freeze put by India onthe intergovernmental SouthAsian Association for RegionalCooperation (SAARC) is only acynical means to keep Pakistanout of the club.
The sabotaging of SAARC canhardly be considered a victory, forthat featherlight geopolitical stratagem fails to consider that regionalism is a potent means to bringeconomic growth and social justice to India’s own povertystricken ‘peripheral regions’ from Assam to Purvanchal to Rajasthan.For its own security and prosperity as well as that of the rest of us,India must reconnect with SouthAsia.
Subcontinental regionalism isalso important to achieve New Delhi’s ambitions on the world stage,including that coveted seat at theUN Security Council. India’s globalcomeback will start the day NewDelhi think tanks begin questioning South and North Block ratherthan serving as purveyors of spin.On South Asian matters, theyshould pull out a copy of the Gujral Doctrine from the archives, tobe dusted and reexamined.
We seek an India that is prosperous and advancing at double digitgrowth, not only because whatthis would mean for its 1.35 billioncitizens, but to the other 500 million South Asians. For its own selfi��sh interests, the rest of SouthAsia wants India to succeed in theworld.
Kanak Mani Dixit, a writer and journalist
based in Kathmandu, is the founding
editor of the Colombo-based magazine,
‘Himal Southasian’
Indian elections, South Asian concernsSouth Asia wants the very best of democracy for India, plus to share in the peace dividend, growth and camaraderie
Kanak Mani Dixit
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EC and model codeWhile it is ironic that theSupreme Court has had tostep in and advise theElection Commission ofIndia to exercise its powers(Page 1, “SC irked after pollpanel’s counsel says it is‘powerless’,” April 16), whatis heartening is that the EChas fi��nally made someattempt to act (Page 1, “ECcurbs campaigning by Yogi,Mayawati, Maneka andAzam”, April 16). All fourpoliticians have shocked uswith their statements, butmore so Maneka Gandhi.Despite its admissionbefore the top court that itis largely a toothless tiger,the Election Commissiondeserves some credit for itsaction.C.V. Aravind,
Bengaluru
■ I grew up reading Ms.Gandhi’s columns, especiallythose concerning animalwelfare. There was a lack ofawareness about these issuesand her staunch activisminspired me. Her gentle andlogical way of writingappealed to my betterreason. To now see herengage in partisan politics isdisheartening. I hope thatshe realises her fall.Ananya Mishra,
Bhilai, Chhattisgarh
The LeftSocial fragmentation has setin, governance has paled andjob creation has been lost incatchy slogans. The Congresshas not been able to reestablish its relevance yet.Add to this the helplessnessof regional parties, most ofwhich were founded by men
with pannational credentialswho circumscribed regionalaspirations within nationalthemes. It is sad that inElection 2019, the Left thistime round is cool towardsthe Third Front — an ideathat was able to provide ashared platform and politicalglue to disparate outfi��ts. Theweakening of the intellectualLeft has taken away a vitalthird balancing force thathad both ideological andpolitical relevance. It is sadto see our political canvasnow reduced to dull shades.The Opposition is unable togather critical mass or etchany theme or pattern. Wemay see the worst of thepolitical potpourri in 2019(Editorial page, “An Indiawithout the Left?” April 16).R. Narayanan,
Navi Mumbai
Business failuresIn the past few years one hasseen the spectacular failureof industrial groups andbusinesses, the latest beingJet Airways. Of course, theyare privately run and havetheir sets of practices, butwhen it comes to the stage ofending up in a debt trap andbeing unable to pay creditorsand fi��nanciers, it becomes adiff��erent ballgame especiallywhen it involves publicmoney. Why did bankersfi��nance these units withoutproper checks and balances?The government seemshelpless too in taking action. Deepak Saraf,
Bathinda, Punjab
The fi��nal pickWith the mercurial M.S.Dhoni available for the WorldCup, no other name comes
need for grooming Pant forthe future arises. V. Lakshmanan,
Tirupur, Tamil Nadu
Le désastreThe centuries old Gothicmarvel has long been thepride of Paris (‘World’ page,“Fire devastates Paris’ iconicNotreDame cathedral”,April 16). One is instantlyreminded of Victor Hugo’snovel, The Hunchback ofNotre-Dame, which alsocreated an awareness aboutthe architectural signifi��canceof this structure. As the mainpart appears to be still intact,one hopes that France willrestore the cathedral to itsformer glory.Kangayam R. Narasimhan,
Chennai
to mind readily for the slot ofwicketkeeper (‘Sport’ page,“Vijay Shankar, Karthik,Rahul make the cut”, April16). One may argue thatDinesh Karthik and K.L.Rahul — the fi��rst a regularwicketkeeper while the latterdons the gloves occasionally— can be standbys in case ofan emergency. But, oneaspect that had been largelyignored is that the ageingDhoni would have to remainfi��t for all the matches. Fromthis angle, the nonselectionof Rishabh Pant is quiteperplexing. Also, with Dhoniretiring by the end of theWorld Cup, we needsomeone who can take upthe mantle. Karthik has notbeen a success with the batwhile Rahul’s batting maysuff��er should he focus onwicketkeeping too. Thus the
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR Letters emailed to [email protected] must carry the full postal address and the full name or the name with initials.
When protests broke out in Atbara in northeast
ern Sudan over rising prices of bread in mid
December, not many thought it would snow
ball into a nationwide agitation, shaking the founda
tions of the junta. President Omar alBashir, who
captured power through a bloodless coup in 1989, fi��rst
called the protesters “rats” and then declared a state of
emergency. Dozens were killed. When none of these
measures quelled public anger, Mr. Bashir sacked the
Health Minister and the Prime Minister, and promised
reforms. But the protests, led by the Sudanese Profes
sionals Association, a new group, grew in strength. As
protests reached the army headquarters, the military
high command stepped in, deposing Mr. Bashir on
April 11 and announcing a transitional government led
by the military council. But even the fall of Mr. Bashir
failed to calm the streets as protesters wanted “a revolu
tion”. Over three decades, Mr. Bashir and his military
clique had used several tactics, from aligning with Isla
mists and banning political parties to suppressing dis
sent and unleashing paramilitaries against defi��ant re
gions, to stay in power. But the recent economic crisis,
especially after South Sudan split away with three
fourths of the oilfi��elds, broke the regime’s back.
The army seems to have realised it is facing the great
est challenge to its power in three decades. It has alrea
dy made several concessions. Soon after Mr. Bashir was
deposed, Awad Ibn Ouf, the chosen head of the military
council, also stepped down. The muchfeared intelli
gence chief, Salah Gosh, was fi��red. The new military
ruler, Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah alBurhan, has ordered lift
ing of the curfew and freeing of political prisoners. But
the problem is that the army is not ready to give up con
trol. Its plan to be in charge for at least two years has
made the protesters wary. They are afraid that the ar
my, given its track record, will try to retain its grip on
power through some means or the other. This is the
current stalemate – the protesters want a break with the
past while the army doesn’t want to give up its privileg
es. This confl��ict was visible in neighbouring countries
where dictators fell amid public protests. In Egypt, Hos
ni Mubarak resigned as President in 2011, but the mili
tary never gave up its privileges. In two years it was
back in power through a coup. In Algeria, Abdelaziz
Boutefl��ika stepped down as President this month, but
the army has retained power; protests still continue in
the country. The Sudanese protesters say they want an
orderly transition under a civilian government. The ar
my should respect their demand and resolve the im
passe. Mr. Bashir has quit. It’s time to replace the op
pressive regime he built, with a much more inclusive,
responsive and democratic civilian government.
At a crossroadsWith Omar alBashir gone, Sudan needs
a quick transition to civilian rule
The Supreme Court’s interim order asking political
parties to disclose, to the Election Commission in
sealed covers, details of the donations they have
received through anonymous electoral bonds is an in
adequate and belated response to the serious concerns
raised about the opaque scheme. The scheme, under
which one can purchase bonds of various denomina
tions from a designated bank and deposit them in the
accounts of any political party, had been challenged in
the apex court a year ago. When the matter was taken
up last week, it was considered that the time available
was too limited for an indepth hearing. The order, un
fortunately, preserves the status quo, and any eff��ect
that the possible asymmetry in political funding would
have on the election process will stay as it is. The only
concession given to those concerned about the dangers
of anonymous political funding is that the names would
be available with the EC, albeit in sealed envelopes, un
til the court decides if they can be made public. There is
some concern that a disproportionately large segment
of the bonds purchased by corporate donors has gone
to the Bharatiya Janata Party. This donor anonymity
may end if the court decides that the EC should disclose
the names at the end of the litigation, but the infl��uence
such donations would have had on the electoral out
come would remain undisturbed.
The court notes in its order that the case gives rise to
“weighty issues which have a tremendous bearing on
the sanctity of the electoral process in the country”. Gi
ven this premise, it could be asked whether the judicial
intervention could not have come earlier. However, all
it has done now is to ensure that its interim arrange
ment does not ‘tilt the balance’ in favour of either side.
The petitioners, the Association for Democratic Re
forms, questioned the anonymitybased funding
scheme on the grounds that it promotes opacity, opens
up the possibility of black money being donated to par
ties through shell companies and empowers the ruling
party, which alone is in a position to identify the donors
and, therefore, well placed to discourage donations to
other parties. The government, on the other hand, ar
gued that electoral bonds would prevent unaccounted
money from entering the system through funding of
parties. For the last two decades, the Supreme Court
has been proactive in empowering voters and in infus
ing transparency in the system. It has developed a body
of jurisprudence that says the electoral process involves
the voter being given information about candidates,
their qualifi��cations, assets and crime records, if any.
Therefore, it is disappointing to hear the Attorney Gen
eral arguing that voters do not have a right to know who
funds parties. Now that there is no stay on the opera
tion of the scheme, the court must render an early ver
dict on the legality of the electoral bond scheme.
Sealed disclosureThe Supreme Court order will not alter
the infl��uence of electoral bonds on polls
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#70929
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THE HINDU DELHI
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 17, 2019 9EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
CMYK
A ND-NDE
OPED
The Union Government today [April 16, New Delhi] announced the creation of large wheat zones in the Southernand Eastern regions along with the enlargement of the Northern wheat zone. A gazette notifi��cation issued today [April 16]gave details of the reorganisation of the wheat zones which theFood Minister Jagjivan Ram had announced in Parliament yesterday. The Southern Zone will comprise Tamil Nadu, AndhraPradesh, Mysore, Kerala and Pondicherry while the EasternZone will include Assam, Nagaland, Manipur and Tripura. Besides the Southern, Eastern and Northern zones, three othersmaller zones are being constituted. They are: Maharashtraand Goa; Orissa; and Gujarat and the Union territory of Daman, Diu, Dadar and Nagar Haveli. The Northern Zone willcomprise Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal (excluding the statutorily rationed area ofCalcutta).
FIFTY YEARS AGO APRIL 17, 1969
Wheat zones for regions
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FROM ARCHIVES
A huge mass meeting was held yesterday [April 15] evening atSabarmati [near Ahmedabad] when Mr. Gandhi delivered anaddress in Gujarati, thousands of copies of which were distributed to the crowd. He said he was sorry that he had overcalculated the chances of Satyagraha being understood by themasses. It was a serious question for him, whether he could atall, whilst the spirit of violence continued, seek rearrest by going to Delhi. It was a matter of shame for them that the Englishresidents were obliged to leave their bungalows and confi��nethemselves to a few well protected houses. It was their duty totreat them as their brothers and assure them of their absolute’bona fi��des’. It was necessary to do penance for the pastdeeds. Some people consider that his release was due to thedeeds of lawlessness and violence. Mr. Gandhi himself did notthink so at all. After all, what was burnt was national propertyand it was national loss. Mr. Gandhi himself felt his responsibility was greater than anybody else.
A HUNDRED YEARS AGO APRIL 17, 1919.
Satyagraha Movement. Mr. Gandhi’s Speech.
At the recent spring meeting sof theInternational Monetary Fund (IMF)and World Bank, Finance Ministersand central bank Governors by andlarge played down fears about a slowing global economy. Their optimismwas based on the pause in the U.S.’s
interest rate policy in February, ease in the country’s tradetensions with China, and receding risk of a hard Brexit.
However, in stark contrast, the IMF has consistently emphasised a cautious stance on the current growth trajectoryfor some months. As the ultralow interest rates of the postcrisis years have come to stay in many economies, the IMFhas highlighted the limits of monetary policy in a futuredownturn. Its latest economic forecast cuts the outlook forgrowth in 2019 to 3.3% from estimates of 3.5% in Januaryand 3.7% in October, when it had cited concerns over tradeprotectionism and the fl��ight of capital from vulnerableemerging economies.
These projections were echoed by the IMF chief at theU.S. Chamber of Commerce earlier this month. Christine Lagarde said that whereas two years ago, 75% of the global economy experienced an upswing, the expectation this annumis for a slump in 70% of the world economy. Contributing tothe overall deceleration is the deteriorating trade climate ofthe last two years. The pace of exports and imports was4.6% in 2017, the strongest since the rebound after the 200708 fi��nancial crisis. But the 2018 fi��gures were a modest 3%and could fall much further this year, says the WTO.
In the U.S., where yearonyear growth touched 2.9%, thefund’s forecast is 2.3% in 2019 — a far cry from the 4% rate inthe second quarter last year. The Federal Reserve has alsolowered its estimate from 2.3% to 2.1%, a sign possibly of thefading impact of President Donald Trump’s 2017 corporatetax cuts. A more than anticipated fall in recent German imports and exports is said to refl��ect, among other things, theimpact of the trade friction between the U.S. and China andgrowing uncertainty over Britain’s exit from the EuropeanUnion.
While stopping short of projecting a global recession, theIMF forecasts growth to touch 3.6% in 2020, lower than earlier estimates. That would be underpinned by tepid growthin the advanced world and hopes of a stable Chinese environment. The potential for an acceleration depends on Argentina and Turkey climbing out of a recession, besides aprecarious rebound in other emerging and developing economies. During last week’s meeting, the view among Finance Ministers was that the IMF was painting a rather grimpicture of the world economy. The hope is that their optimism will be borne out by evidence. Equally, a lasting resolution of the U.S.China trade dispute would revive momentum in the global economy.
The writer is a Deputy Editor at The Hindu
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SINGLE FILE
Clouds on the horizonThe deteriorating trade climate and the U.S.China confl��ict are holdingback global growth
Garimella Subramaniam
AP
Landslide victory
When a party or coalition receives an overwhelming majorityof the seats to an elected body, such as the Lok Sabha or Legislative Assembly, this is called a landslide victory. For example,in the 2015 Delhi Assembly election, the Aam Aadmi Partywon 67 of the 70 seats, which was a landslide victory. Such avictory could indicate mass support for the party/ candidatethat won or immense anger against the incumbent government or party.
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POLL CALL
When NotreDame burned
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DATA POINT
Veteran journalist and psephologist Prannoy Roy recently co-authored a book, ‘The Verdict: Decoding India’s Elections’,with Dorab R. Sopariwala. In this interview, Mr. Roy talksabout opinion polls, landslide victories and the problem ofmissing women voters in India. Edited excerpts:
You are an economist, a
chartered accountant, a
psephologist and also a
journalist. What do you
think these roles bring to the
table for your journalism?
■ It is an important question.There is a qualitative andquantitative aspect to theseroles and these shouldn’t bebridged. For example, whenI am doing opinion polls,that’s quantitative work, andas journalists we need to doqualitative work. Many journalists tend to try to forecastthe elections, which is nottheir job. The job of journalism is qualitative; it’s to talkabout stories, issues. Thesecannot be simply translatedinto numbers by an opinionpoll. Pollsters try to be qualitative too, by asking peopleto list issues of priority, butthis is not simple. It takestime to understand issues.
One of the fi��ndings in your
book is that most often
pollsters get the winner
right, but they invariably
underestimate the scale of
victory in terms of seats for
the winners. Why?
■ Pollsters tend to try to playit safe. It is important forthem to get the winner rightrather than the seats. If theyget the largest party wrong, itis very tough for them to playit down. It is also becauserespondents, which is particularly true in this election,try to play it safe. They tendto reaffi��rm that they supportthe ruling party as they donot always trust the pollster.How much is the fear factoramong the respondents...this is very tough for pollsters to assess.
One of the most interesting
fi��ndings of your book is that
of landslides. Can you
explain this phenomenon at
the national and State
levels?
■ The Lok Sabha electionsare a federation of State elections. And invariably, eachState votes diff��erently andthe fi��nal result in an electionis the combination of landslides and results at the Statelevel that could counteracteach other. So, we may havea landslide one way in TamilNadu, another way in Maharashtra, and so on. We fi��ndthat 77% of the Lok Sabhaelections at the State levelhave been landslides.
Tamil Nadu is a classic case?
■ It’s 94% in Tamil Nadu. It isalways one way — huge victories for one party or coalition. Landslides happen because in ourfi��rstpastthepost (FPTP) system, a small change in voteshare gives a huge number ofseats. The combination ofthe FPTP system and a fragmented Opposition results ina landslide.
There is a talk in the media
about narratives – say, BJP
on populist nationalism,
Congress on something else
in the past. Does this work
nationwide or is it a myth?
■ It is a bit of a myth. For example, in Andhra Pradesh,we didn’t hear of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, or ofmajoritarianism or nationalism at all. But in some States,such as U.P., these narrativesdo exist to some extent. Wefi��nd over time that votersvote based on their life conditions. We went to a villagein U.P. where voters said they
are going to vote against thegovernment because abridge had not been fi��xed. Arespondent did mention Pulwama, but he rated it lowerthan livelihood in hispriorities.
Maybe there is no one
narrative that dominates
across States, but we have
had a government that has
been in campaigning mode
since 2014. Has there been
any such government in the
past that has been so keen
on getting its message
across? Does this matter in
setting the narrative?
■ It does matter a lot. Thisgovernment and the BJP areextremely effi��cient in boothmanagement and turnoutmanagement. Globally this isseen as the focussed way towin elections. The BJP is superb at that — they have pannapramukhs, booth prabharis,and so on. It has social mediaapps, which the top leadersin the party use to reach outto panna pramukhs, who getmessages in seconds andthen everybody gets them.We have seen that lower turnouts tend to help cadrebased parties like the BJP because they make sure theirvoters turn out. Noncadre
parties hope that people willvoluntarily turn out.
There is a worry. A turnout management ploy alsoincludes rumour mongeringthat makes people worryabout going to vote in elections fearing violence. InAmerica, voter suppressionprevents certain categoriesof voters, such as AfricanAmericans, from voting.Suppression methods makeit complicated for them toeven be registered as voters.We have a similar problem.
Ashok Lahiri and you had
developed an index of
opposition unity. Can you
tell us about its signifi��cance?
You speak about David
Butler’s work on uniform
swings and how this does
not apply to allIndia
equations, and say that the
index of opposition unity is
a big determinant in India.
■ Yes. We learnt a lot from
the work of Butler, who originated the uniform swingstheory, but this worked largely in a twoparty system.When he came to India, hefound that it doesn’t quiteapply here because we haveso many parties here. So, wehad to work out an equation,which is a defi��nition of whatdetermines the change inmargin. A margin of victorydue to change in votes and achange in opposition unity iswhat determines the winner.If there is a perfect twopartysystem, the index of opposition unity is 100/100. Themore fragmented it is, it goesdown to 70, 60, 50, and thatdetermines the margin ofvictory as much as swings.
People often ask, is there aModi wave? We say, that is amisnomer because he wonwith 31% of the vote. He wondue to the divided Opposition vote. Therefore, wemust ask, how divided is theOpposition vote this time?
So how good is the index of
opposition unity this time
for the BJP both Statewide
and nationwide?
■ The actual number can only be assessed by opinionpolls. For example, we foundthat Yadavs vote with the Da
lits in U.P. This is not only additive, but there is a boostbeyond the arithmetic too.Because voters tend to believe this could be a winningcoalition and it has momentum. So, if two parties bring20% each, they could get aboost of 5% more votes dueto this factor.
Do you have data on vote
transfer? People say some
parties transfer less of their
votes than others in a
coalition, right?
■ It is conventional wisdomamong journalists, and notjust true. We fi��nd that votetransfer is almost 100% plusa boost. Journalists say thatYadavs might not vote for[BSP chief ] Mayawati, whileDalits might vote for the SP.That is just not true. Yadavsare voting for Mayawati, wefi��nd. We hear that Muslimsvote tactically. But the Muslim vote does split. In fact, nosection is voting 100% forone party.
The index of opposition
unity is higher compared to
2014. Isn’t that so?
■ Yes, much higher. It is going to make a huge diff��erence, especially in U.P. InU.P., even if the vote sharesare exactly as in 2014, just acombination of these twoparties, the BSP and SP,could reduce the BJP’s tallyfrom 73 to half of that. If theCongress was part of the coalition, the seat tally couldhave dropped to 20. The factthat the Congress, with only6% of votes in U.P., is contesting the elections separately isgiving the BJP an extra 14seats based only on 2014numbers. The Congress hasmisread the situation in U.P.
Your book’s signifi��cant
fi��nding is about 21 million
missing women voters in
2019. It came down from 25
million in 2014. But fi��rst, the
positive thing. You are
predicting in this book that
in this election women
voters may actually
outnumber male voters at
the allIndia level in the Lok
Sabha.
■ Yes. Outparticipate in thesense that the turnout fi��guresmay be higher, but becauseof the missing numbers, theabsolute fi��gures may be less.
Women are coming out tovote more than men in everyState, and more so in southIndia, where the women aremuch more proactive. Aspollsters we found that in thesouth, the woman inside thehouse will see you and comeout and say, what questionsare you asking? In U.P., theywill be standing at the doorand they will rush inside.They don’t want to interact.That is changing though. Inthe south, the husband alsocomes and we ask the woman, do you vote independently or do you listen towhat he says? They say, listento him, who is he? Sometimes we ask him, do you listen to her? Which they don’tdo either. Men and womenmake up their own mind.
Is there a correlation
between turnout of women
and representation in terms
of candidacy?
■ Unfortunately, so far therehas not been. The percentage of women candidatesthe parties have nominatedhas been appallingly low. Butbecause of this increasingturnout of women overtaking men, now the policies ofparties are becoming womenfocussed. The policy ofgas cylinders [Ujjwalascheme] has worked well.Unfortunately, that has lost alot of steam because nowthey have to pay for a secondcylinder. That is just one areawhere parties are focussingon women. But you look atthe manifestos and whatthey do during election time,you see a lot of leaders saying, will all the womenplease come to the front?
They are talking to womenbecause women now mattermuch more than before. Andthat is a heartening sign.
In your book, you have a
historical discussion on
three periods. The fi��rst
period is proincumbency,
from 19521977. Then you
have a period of distinct
antiincumbency, 19772004.
■ ...2002, yeah. 25 years.
And then 5050.
■ In the fi��rst 25 years, over80% of the governmentswere voted back. So it wasproincumbency. The next25 years, when they foundthat the politicians had failedthem, they just threw outeverybody. Good or bad, over 70% of the governmentswere thrown out. And since2002, 5050. Half the governments are thrown out, halfhave come back. And the governments that are votedback tend to be governmentsthat have worked on theground. They are doers. It isclear now that the voters arenot taken in by pure oratoryand great speeches.
Let us look at issues. Usually,
livelihood issues come right
at the top. They are the most
important.
■ For an issue to be an election issue, it has to fulfi��l twocriteria. One, it has to be important in my life. Corruption is important to most people. Corruption is alwayshigh everywhere. Two, oneparty must be seen to be better at solving it than the other. Take corruption. Theremust be a clear distinction inthe parties for it to becomean election issue. The AAPonce swept Delhi becausethat is the distinction it hadat the time that it was not acorrupt party, while all theothers were seen as corrupt.
The full version of this interview isavailable on www.thehindu.com
INTERVIEW | PRANNOY ROY
‘Women voters now matter much more than before’The veteran journalist on opinion polls, the index of opposition unity, vote transfers, antiincumbency, and the Congress’s misreading of Uttar Pradesh
N. Ram & Srinivasan Ramani
<> The BJP is extremely
effi��cient in booth
management and
turnout
management.
Globally this is seen
as the focussed way
to win elections.
SH
AJU
JO
HN
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