week 4 project status update - lss bb
DESCRIPTION
Update presentation for my project for the NAVSEA Lean Six Sigma Black Belt course.TRANSCRIPT
Update #2Yes, we have no bananas.
We have no bananas today.
Improve the timeliness of procurement request fulfillment for
the industrial program
• Problem Statement:The procurement request fulfillment process for the Coast Guard Industrial Program currently takes an average of 9.3 days for a single Type 32 purchase. Procurements are currently fulfilled at ten locations around the Coast Guard, and the average time to make a purchase at each site ranges from 1.9 to 39.1 days according to a recent study. To meet customer needs, procurement fulfillments should be completed within 5 days. The problem has existed for several years.
Charter
• Signed in September.
• Added tasking for the project to examine variability issues (appended by email correspondence)
• Coast Guard Industrial Program currently undergoing radical “modernization” as a part of the agency’s reorganization efforts.
• Confidentiality agreement in place
Communications Plan
• Currently in review with the Value Stream Champion
• Focus on linking messages with the ongoing simultaneous modernization effort.
• Bi-Weekly updates on project progress to VSC who provides to Executive Sponsor.
Data Collection
• It’s all bollocked-up
• Full data from 2008 – locked up in a now inaccessible data format; includes simulations
• Current data – deep inside Oracle; the holy grail is getting the data out
200-20
99.9
90
50
10
1
C1
Perc
ent
20100
99
90
50
10
0.1
C1
Perc
ent
10.01.00.1
99.999
90
50
10
1
C1
Perc
ent
100.0010.001.000.100.01
99.99990
50
10
1
C1 - Threshold
Perc
ent
GammaAD = 1.136 P-Value = 0.007
3-Parameter GammaAD = 3.056 P-Value = *
Goodness of Fit Test
Smallest Extreme Value
AD = 7.632 P-Value < 0.010
Largest Extreme ValueAD = 1.489
P-Value < 0.010
Probability Plot for C1Smallest Extreme Value - 95% CI Largest Extreme Value - 95% CI
Gamma - 95% CI 3-Parameter Gamma - 95% CI
100.0010.001.000.100.01
99.9
90
50
10
1
C1
Perc
ent
100.0010.001.000.100.01
99.9
90
50
10
1
C1 - ThresholdP
erc
ent
10.01.00.1
99.9
90
50
10
1
C1
Perc
ent
100.0010.001.000.100.01
99.9
90
50
10
1
C1 - Threshold
Perc
ent
WeibullAD = 1.220 P-Value < 0.010
3-Parameter WeibullAD = 3.947 P-Value < 0.005
Goodness of Fit Test
Exponential
AD = 2.644 P-Value < 0.003
2-Parameter ExponentialAD = 2.143
P-Value < 0.010
Probability Plot for C1Exponential - 95% CI 2-Parameter Exponential - 95% CI
Weibull - 95% CI 3-Parameter Weibull - 95% CI
20100-10
99.9
99
90
50
10
1
0.1
C1
Perc
ent
420-2
99.9
99
90
50
10
1
0.1
C1
Perc
ent
100.010.01.00.1
99.9
99
90
50
10
1
0.1
C1
Perc
ent
1000
0.00
1000
.00
100.0
0
10.0
01.0
00.1
00.0
1
99.9
99
90
50
10
1
0.1
C1 - Threshold
Perc
ent
LognormalAD = 1.140 P-Value = 0.005
3-Parameter LognormalAD = 6.518 P-Value = *
Goodness of Fit Test
Normal
AD = 3.298 P-Value < 0.005
Box-Cox TransformationAD = 1.140
P-Value = 0.005
After Box-Cox transformation (lambda = 0)
Probability Plot for C1Normal - 95% CI Normal - 95% CI
Lognormal - 95% CI 3-Parameter Lognormal - 95% CI
2520151050-5-10
99.9
99
95
90
80706050403020
10
5
1
0.1
C1
Perc
ent
Mean 4.085StDev 3.544N 59AD 3.298P-Value <0.005
PtownNormal
20100-10
99.9
99
95
80
50
20
5
1
0.1
Perc
ent
N 59AD 3.298P-Value <0.005
1.21.00.80.60.4
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
Z Value
P-V
alue
for
AD
tes
t
Ref P
Probability Plot for Original Data Select a Transformation
(P-Value = 0.005 means <= 0.005)
J ohnson Transformation for C1
Fail to select a transformation with P-Value > 0.1. No transformation is made.
Normal?Transformatable?Defined non-normal distribution?
Not on your life…
And next?
• Following direction from the book: Find another metric and start collecting data again…
Next Steps
• Remain solidly in the Measure phase of DMAIC• Meeting with Value Stream Champion 11/3 to
revisit project plan and develop data collection plan.
• Develop measurement system analysis with an eye toward analyzing Oracle data against check sheet data.
• Meeting with process team 11/10 to update value stream map, including future state.
Protect Yourself from Aliens