Week 8 NotesWeek 8 Notes• TonightTonight

– Weather ReviewWeather Review– Term Paper Outline GuidelinesTerm Paper Outline Guidelines– AMS Climate Change Policy (HW#6)AMS Climate Change Policy (HW#6)– Airmasses and Fronts (Chp 8)Airmasses and Fronts (Chp 8)– El Niño Classwork (HW#7)El Niño Classwork (HW#7)– El Niño and La NiñaEl Niño and La Niña

• March 24 – No Class (Spring Break)March 24 – No Class (Spring Break)• March 31 – No Class (Cesar Chavez Day)March 31 – No Class (Cesar Chavez Day)

Week 8 Notes (cont’d)Week 8 Notes (cont’d)• April 7 April 7

– Remote SensingRemote Sensing– Weather ForecastingWeather Forecasting– Review for Midterm #2Review for Midterm #2

• April 14April 14– Midterm #2Midterm #2– Term paper Outlines DueTerm paper Outlines Due

• April 21April 21– Thunderstorms and TornadoesThunderstorms and Tornadoes

Term Paper OutlineTerm Paper OutlineDue Apr 14Due Apr 14• TypedTyped• Double SpacedDouble Spaced• Formatted per next pageFormatted per next page• ReferencesReferences• At Least 3 referencesAt Least 3 references• You can add more references laterYou can add more references later• Only 1/3 Internet only sourcesOnly 1/3 Internet only sources• Proper formatting for electronic sourcesProper formatting for electronic sources

• APA Format only (link in Syllabus)APA Format only (link in Syllabus)

Term Paper OutlineI. IntroductionI. IntroductionII. Three Major PointsII. Three Major Points

A. Point 1.A. Point 1.1. Subpoint 11. Subpoint 12. Subpoint 22. Subpoint 2

B. Point 2.B. Point 2. 1. Subpoint 11. Subpoint 1 2. Subpoint2. Subpoint

C. Point 3.C. Point 3.1. Subpoint 11. Subpoint 12. Subpoint 22. Subpoint 2

III. SummaryIII. SummaryReferences:References:

At Least 3 referencesAt Least 3 referencesAPA Format only (link in Syllabus)APA Format only (link in Syllabus)Only 1/3 Internet Sources (and properly formatted)Only 1/3 Internet Sources (and properly formatted)

Sample Term Paper OutlineI. Introduction

A. Performed by Committee of Citizens named by Board of Educ.B. Findings:

1. Unsatisfactory sports facilities2. Ongoing traffic and parking congestion.3. Outdated science labs4. Outdated physical facilities:

II. Funding Sources:A. Bond referendum passed by votes of four sending towns on 12/9/03.B. Breakdown:

1. $8.8 million provided by communities via increased taxes.2. $6.3 million provided by State of NJ via school funding pool.

C. Timetable for Expenditures:III. Benefits to School and District:

A. Reduction of Special Education costs by keeping students at school.B. Maintenance of Property values for sending district real estate.C. Enhancement of education program at the school.

IV. Drawbacks to School and District:A. Increased property taxes to residents for 15-20 years to pay off bond.B. Disruption of academic programs at Gateway during the period of construction.C. Re-location of sporting events and some programs during renovations.

V. Conclusion: Although there will be some costs involved and some disruption, believe the benefits of renovating Gateway H.S., with substantial funding from the State of N.J., are in the best interests of all students and residents.

CLIMATE CHANGE POLICYCLIMATE CHANGE POLICY

• IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change• Set up by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Set up by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) • IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007• 1000+ Scientists1000+ Scientists• Synthesis of Exisitng ResearchSynthesis of Exisitng Research• No Actual research or Data CollectionNo Actual research or Data Collection

• AMS – American Meteorological SocietyAMS – American Meteorological Society

AMS CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY - HW#6 AMS CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY - HW#6 Divide into SIX GROUPS• Read individually your section• Discuss as a group• Come up with at least one “bullet point” per paragraph• Choose a group spokesperson who will present to the class• Each group will turn in a sheet of paper with members names CLEARLY WRITTEN

Group:• #1 – Background• #2 – How is Climate Changing?• #3 – Why is Climate Changing?• #4 – How Can Climate Change be Projected in the Future?• #5 – How will Climate Change in the Future? (First 4 paras)• #6 – How will Climate Change in the Future? (Last 4 paras)

Air Masses and FrontsAir Masses and Fronts

Semi-permanent circulation patterns provide Semi-permanent circulation patterns provide consistent wind patterns and breeding grounds for consistent wind patterns and breeding grounds for air masses.air masses.

Air Mass DevelopmentAir Mass Development

Air Mass PropertiesAir Mass Properties• Take on the properties of the underlying surface Take on the properties of the underlying surface • Characterized by Temperature and HumidityCharacterized by Temperature and Humidity• Classified by location of “origin”Classified by location of “origin”• GeographicallyGeographically

– TropicalTropical– PolarPolar– ArcticArctic

• Surface PropertiesSurface Properties– MaritimeMaritime– continentalcontinental

• Characteristics more prevalent if air mass remains Characteristics more prevalent if air mass remains over source region for a long periodover source region for a long period

Air Mass ClassificationsAir Mass Classifications• cP - continental PolarcP - continental Polar

– Cold, dry, stableCold, dry, stable– Extremely cold cP air mass may be designated cA Extremely cold cP air mass may be designated cA

(continental Arctic)(continental Arctic)• mP - maritime PolarmP - maritime Polar

– Cool, moist, unstableCool, moist, unstable• mT - maritime TropicalmT - maritime Tropical

– Warm, moist, usually unstableWarm, moist, usually unstable• cT - continental TropicalcT - continental Tropical

– Hot, dryHot, dry– Stable air aloft, unstable surface airStable air aloft, unstable surface air

• cA – continental ArcticcA – continental Arctic

Air Mass Source RegionsAir Mass Source Regions

– Cold, DryCold, Dry– Develops over the interior of Develops over the interior of

• North America -- Central Canada -- SiberiaNorth America -- Central Canada -- Siberia

Continental Polar (cP)Continental Polar (cP)

Arctic Air (cA)Arctic Air (cA)– Bitterly Cold and Very DryBitterly Cold and Very Dry– Develops over the snow or ice usually north of 60° N Develops over the snow or ice usually north of 60° N

– Cold, MoistCold, Moist– Source: Cold ocean waters of the North Pacific and North AtlanticSource: Cold ocean waters of the North Pacific and North Atlantic– Often conversion of cP Siberian air to mP which is moistened and Often conversion of cP Siberian air to mP which is moistened and

warmed from the Japanese “Gulf Stream Current”warmed from the Japanese “Gulf Stream Current”– Major type for storms to affect N. California and the Pacific NWMajor type for storms to affect N. California and the Pacific NW– Responsible for fueling “Nor-easters”Responsible for fueling “Nor-easters”

Marine Polar (mP)Marine Polar (mP)

• Continental Tropical (cT)Continental Tropical (cT)– Hot, DryHot, Dry– Source: Deserts of Mexico and the SW United StatesSource: Deserts of Mexico and the SW United States– Very unstable because of heat and convection, but Very unstable because of heat and convection, but

cloudless because of lack of moisture.cloudless because of lack of moisture.• Marine Tropical (mT)Marine Tropical (mT)

– Warm, HumidWarm, Humid– Source: Tropical and subtropical oceans and the Gulf Source: Tropical and subtropical oceans and the Gulf

of Mexicoof Mexico

Tropical (T)Tropical (T)

United States Air MassesUnited States Air Masses

mT

cP

Example Air MassesExample Air Masses

Air Mass InvasionAir Mass Invasion

• Air masses eventually moveAir masses eventually move• If it moves over a region different from where it If it moves over a region different from where it

originated, the air mass will be modified, by the originated, the air mass will be modified, by the land that the air is travelling over.land that the air is travelling over.

• Changes: warming, cooling, adding or reducing Changes: warming, cooling, adding or reducing moisture contentmoisture content

Air Mass ModificationAir Mass Modification

cP

WarmerLand

The cP air mass willbe warmed by thewarmer land that itpasses over.

Air Mass ModificationAir Mass Modification

Air Mass ModificationAir Mass Modification• Originates as cP air from Asia and is carried across the Pacific becoming mP

mP cP

Lake Effect SnowLake Effect Snow

• Fronts– Narrow transition zone between air masses

of differing densities.– The density differences usually arise from

temperature differences.– Density differences may be a result of

humidity differences (summer).• A front is the boundary or transition zone

between different air masses.

FrontsFronts

Frontal SymbolsFrontal Symbols

• Cold Front– Boundary with a colder (more dense)

airmass advances and displaces the warmer (less dense) air.

– The largest temperature differences are normally associated with cold fronts.

– Average speed ≈ 30 mph– Temperatures drop rapidly

Cold FrontCold Front

Cold FrontCold Front

Cold FrontCold Front•Precipitation: Located on either side of the front.

•Convective, showery in nature

• Warm Front– Colder (more dense) air retreats and is

replaced by the warmer (less dense) air.– Warm fronts tend to have weaker

temperature gradients.– Average speed ≈ 16 mph– Temperatures slowly rise

Warm FrontWarm Front

Warm FrontWarm Front

Warm FrontWarm Front• Lifted warm air produces widespread clouds and

precipitation well in advance of boundary

• Cold fronts typically move faster than warm fronts.

• Cold fronts can catch up and “overtake” a warm front.

• Two types of occlusions:– Cold type occlusion– Warm type occlusion (very, very rare)

Occluded FrontOccluded Front

Occluded FrontOccluded Front

Occluded FrontOccluded Front

What kind of front is it?What kind of front is it?• From the vantage point of the ground…

•If warm air replaces colder air, the front is a warm front• If cold air replaces warmer air, the front is a cold front• If the front does not move, it is a stationary front• Occluded fronts do not intersect the ground; the interface between the air masses is aloft

Norwegian Wave CycloneNorwegian Wave Cyclone ModelModel

Wave Cyclone FormationWave Cyclone Formation

Typical Wave Cyclone PathsTypical Wave Cyclone Paths

Wave Cyclone DevelopmentWave Cyclone Development

What initiates “cyclogenesis?”

500 mb height

Low

High

Convergence and DivergenceConvergence and Divergence

When upper-level divergence is stronger than lower-level convergence, more air is taken out at the top than is brought in at the bottom. Surface pressure drops, and the low intensifies, or “deepens.”

Generation of Divergence AloftGeneration of Divergence AloftUPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE

INITIATES AND MAINTAINS A

SURFACE LOW.

Formation of CyclonesFormation of Cyclones• Cyclogenesis – Development of a region of low

pressure -- a cyclone.• Conditions:

– Cyclonic flow must be established at the surface.– Cyclonic flow is CCW in the Northern Hemisphere.– Convergence at the surface must be supported by

divergence aloft.

Shortwave PropagationShortwave Propagation

Cyclone StagesCyclone Stages

“Comma” shape ischaracteristic of a welldeveloped wave cyclone.

The cyclone maturescP

mT

Wave Cyclone DevelopmentWave Cyclone Development

L

Cloud“Shield”

Cold front overtakes warm front.

The cold air surrounds the cyclone. Gradients weaken and the low slowly dies.

The cyclone occludes

cPmT

Wave Cyclone DevelopmentWave Cyclone Development

L

Mid-Latitude CycloneMid-Latitude Cyclone

El Niño, La NiñaEl Niño, La Niña and Other Climate and Other Climate

VariablesVariables

Classwork: Classwork: El Niño Pre-Test (HW#7)El Niño Pre-Test (HW#7)Divide into 6 groups. Discuss and choose a spokesperson to Divide into 6 groups. Discuss and choose a spokesperson to

present a few comments from then group. THIS IS A present a few comments from then group. THIS IS A CLOSED BOOK/COMPUTER EXERCISE. Turn in a sheet for CLOSED BOOK/COMPUTER EXERCISE. Turn in a sheet for each group with last names.each group with last names.

1.1. What is El Niño?What is El Niño?

2.2. Where does El Nino occur?Where does El Nino occur?

3.3. What impact does El Niño have on California?What impact does El Niño have on California?

4.4. Does it impact other parts of the world?Does it impact other parts of the world?

5.5. What is La Niña?What is La Niña?

6. Is there currently an El Niño, La Niña or neither? El Niño, La Niña or neither?

Ripped from the Headlines…Ripped from the Headlines…

El Niño MythsEl Niño Myths• El Niño will be coming to California againEl Niño will be coming to California again

• All El Niños are the sameAll El Niños are the same

• El Niño spawns stormsEl Niño spawns storms

• El Niño means lots of rain for CaliforniaEl Niño means lots of rain for California

• El Niño means flooding and big waves for El Niño means flooding and big waves for CaliforniaCalifornia

Ripped from the Headlines…Ripped from the Headlines…

Is there currently an El Niño, La Niña or El Niño, La Niña or neither? neither?

NormalNormalPacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)

El NiñoEl NiñoPacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)

El NiñoEl NiñoStorm Track PatternStorm Track Pattern

Worldwide El Niño ImpactsWorldwide El Niño Impacts

La NiñaLa NiñaPacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)

La NiñaLa NiñaStorm Track PatternStorm Track Pattern

Worldwide La Niña ImpactsWorldwide La Niña Impacts

Southern OscillationSouthern Oscillation• Pressure Difference between Darwin and TahitiPressure Difference between Darwin and Tahiti

• Discovered by Gilbert Walker in 1924Discovered by Gilbert Walker in 1924

• ““Tropical See-Saw”Tropical See-Saw”

• Negative SOI closely related to El Niño Negative SOI closely related to El Niño

• ENSO = El Niño Southern OscillationENSO = El Niño Southern Oscillation

Oceanic NiOceanic Niñño Index (ONI)o Index (ONI)• SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 regionSST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region

• Three month running mean values of SST departuresThree month running mean values of SST departures

El Niño: ONI ≥ +0.5°CLa Niña: ONI ≤ - 0.5°C

List of ENSO EventsList of ENSO EventsWarm EpisodesWarm Episodes maxmax Cold EpisodesCold Episodes minmin

JAS 1951 - NDJ 1951/52JAS 1951 - NDJ 1951/52MAM 1957 – MJJ 1958MAM 1957 – MJJ 1958JJA 1963 – DJF 1963/64JJA 1963 – DJF 1963/64MJJ 1965 – MAM 1966MJJ 1965 – MAM 1966OND 1968 – AMJ 1969OND 1968 – AMJ 1969ASO 1969 – DJF 1969/70ASO 1969 – DJF 1969/70AMJ 1972 – FMA 1973AMJ 1972 – FMA 1973ASO 1976 – JFM 1977ASO 1976 – JFM 1977ASO 1977 - DJF 1977/78ASO 1977 - DJF 1977/78AMJ 1982 – MJJ 1983AMJ 1982 – MJJ 1983JAS 1986 – JFM 1988JAS 1986 – JFM 1988AMJ 1991 – MJJ 1992AMJ 1991 – MJJ 1992FMA 1993 – JJA 1993FMA 1993 – JJA 1993MAM 1994 – FMA 1995MAM 1994 – FMA 1995AMJ 1997 – MAM 1998AMJ 1997 – MAM 1998AMJ 2002 – FMA 2003AMJ 2002 – FMA 2003JJA 2004 – JFM 2005JJA 2004 – JFM 2005

0.70.71.61.61.01.01.61.61.01.00.70.72.12.10.80.80.80.82.32.31.61.61.81.80.80.81.31.32.52.51.51.50.90.9

ASO 1949 – FMA 1951ASO 1949 – FMA 1951MAM 1954 – DJF 1956/57MAM 1954 – DJF 1956/57ASO 1961 – MAM 1962ASO 1961 – MAM 1962MAM 1964 – JFM 1965MAM 1964 – JFM 1965SON 1967 – MAM 1968SON 1967 – MAM 1968JJA 1970 – DJF 1971/72JJA 1970 – DJF 1971/72AMJ 1973 – JJA 1974AMJ 1973 – JJA 1974ASO 1974 – AMJ 1976ASO 1974 – AMJ 1976ASO 1983 – DJF 1983/84ASO 1983 – DJF 1983/84SON 1984 – MJJ 1985SON 1984 – MJJ 1985AMJ 1988 – AMJ 1989AMJ 1988 – AMJ 1989ASO 1995 – FMA 1996ASO 1995 – FMA 1996JJA 1998 – MJJ 2000JJA 1998 – MJJ 2000SON 2000 – JFM 2001SON 2000 – JFM 2001JAS 2007 - AMJ 2008JAS 2007 - AMJ 2008

-1.8-1.8-2.1-2.1-0.6-0.6-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.9-1.4-1.4-2.0-2.0-1.8-1.8-0.9-0.9-1.1-1.1-1.9-1.9-.08-.08-1.6-1.6-0.7-0.7-1.5-1.5

5 Consecutive months of criteria

All El NiñosAll El Niños

Weak El NiñoWeak El Niño

Moderate El NiñoModerate El Niño

Strong El NiñoStrong El Niño

ENSO vs. California FloodingENSO vs. California Flooding

““Pineapple Connection”Pineapple Connection”

New Years 1997 StormNew Years 1997 Storm

Other Atmospheric IndicesOther Atmospheric Indices

• PDO - Pacific Decadal Oscillation

• PNA – Pacific North American

• NAO – North Atlantic Oscillation

• AO – Arctic Oscillation

• MJO – Madden-Julian Oscillation

PDOPDO

• Timescale (events ~ 20-30 yrs)• Decadal variability in the Indo-Pacific sector

PDOPDO

• Negative Phase: 1950’s - mid 1970’s (La Niña like)• Positive Phase: Mid 1970’s - 1990s (El Niño like)

MJO – Madden-Julian OscillationMJO – Madden-Julian Oscillation• 30-60 day cycles that modulate tropical rainfall/ atmospheric circulation patterns• ENSO-like impacts on short-time scale• Modulates the occurrence of extreme weather events

MJO – Madden-Julian OscillationMJO – Madden-Julian Oscillation

Other Atmospheric IndicesOther Atmospheric IndicesNAO / AO Influence on Winter Extremes

+ Positive Phase

- Negative Phase