weekly insights by fbic global retail tech feb. 12 2016 · !1 february 12, 2016...

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February 12, 2016 CHART OF THE WEEK STAT OF THE WEEK Google CEO Sundar Pichai was awarded roughly $199 million in restricted stock on February 3. According to a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing, 273,328 Google class C shares were awarded to Pichai. The closing share price on that day was $726.95. In an SEC document, Google had stated that the equity award, granted biennially, “encourages executives to take a longterm view of the business.” LinkedIn Share Price Crash On February 5, 2015 $199 Mil. DEBORAH WEINSWIG Executive Director – Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre [email protected] US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 It is that time of year again, when love is in the air—and Americans are expected to spend fully $19.7 billion on loved ones this Valentine’s Day. Some 55% of US consumers who responded to a survey said they will mark Valentine’s Day, spending an average of $146.84 on products and services, up 3% from last year. Candy is the top Valentine’s category. Worldwide mobile app store revenue is forecast to reach $101 billion in five years as smartphones become cheaper and data plans more accessible. The number of smartphone and tablet users is expected to more than double by 2020, to 6.2 billion, up from 2.6 billion today, and some of the strongest growth will come from India, Indonesia, China, Mexico, Brazil and Turkey. Amazon Prime is now available to customers in Belgium. The annual membership fee is €49 (US$55), which is lower than the fee in the US and the UK. For customers ages 18 to 24, Amazon is offering Prime membership at a discounted fee of €24 (US$27). The services in Belgium, however, are more limited than those offered in the US and the UK. SK Telecom and Ericsson are building a network to connect handsets to wireless networks and wired infrastructure. “5G will be a hundred times faster than LTE networks, and [the] data transfer rate is projected to be over 20 Gbps,” said SK Telecom. February 12, 2016 192.3 108.4 50 100 150 200 250 Feb 1 Feb 2 Feb 3 Feb 4 Feb 5 Feb 8 Feb 9 $

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Page 1: Weekly Insights by FBIC Global Retail Tech Feb. 12 2016 · !1 february 12, 2016 deborah(weinswig,(executive(director–head(of(global(retail(&(technology(deborahweinswig@fung1937.com((us:(917.655.6790((hk:(852.6119.1779((cn

       

  1

February 12, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 

                                           

 

 

 

 

   

   +5.4%  CHART  OF  THE  WEEK  

 STAT  OF  THE  WEEK  

 STAT  OF  THE  WEEK  

 • Google  CEO  Sundar  Pichai  was  awarded  roughly  $199  million  in  

restricted  stock  on  February  3.  

• According  to  a  Securities  and  Exchange  Commission  (SEC)  filing,  273,328  Google  class  C  shares  were  awarded  to  Pichai.  The  closing  

share  price  on  that  day  was  $726.95.  

• In  an  SEC  document,  Google  had  stated  that  the  equity  award,  granted  biennially,  “encourages  executives  to  take  a  long-­‐term  

view  of  the  business.”  

 

LinkedIn  Share  Price  Crash  On  February  5,  2015  $199  Mil.    

D E B O R A H W E I N S W I G Executive Director – Head of Global Retail & Technology

Fung Business Intelligence Centre [email protected]

US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779

CN: 86.186.1420.3016

• It  is  that  time  of  year  again,  when   love  is   in   the  air—and  Americans  are   expected   to   spend   fully   $19.7   billion   on   loved   ones   this  Valentine’s   Day.   Some   55%   of   US   consumers   who   responded   to   a  survey   said   they  will  mark  Valentine’s   Day,   spending   an   average  of  $146.84  on  products  and  services,  up  3%  from  last  year.  Candy  is  the  top  Valentine’s  category.  

• Worldwide  mobile  app  store  revenue  is  forecast  to  reach  $101  billion  in   five  years  as  smartphones  become   cheaper   and  data  plans  more  accessible.  The  number  of  smartphone  and  tablet  users   is   expected  to  more  than  double  by  2020,  to  6.2  billion,  up  from  2.6  billion  today,  and   some  of   the   strongest   growth  will   come   from   India,   Indonesia,  China,  Mexico,  Brazil  and  Turkey.  

• Amazon  Prime  is  now  available  to  customers  in  Belgium.  The  annual  membership  fee  is  €49  (US$55),  which  is  lower  than  the  fee  in  the  US  and  the  UK.  For   customers  ages  18  to  24,  Amazon   is  offering  Prime  membership   at   a   discounted   fee   of   €24   (US$27).   The   services   in  Belgium,  however,  are  more  limited  than  those  offered  in  the  US  and  the  UK.  

• SK  Telecom  and  Ericsson  are  building  a  network  to  connect  handsets  to  wireless  networks  and  wired  infrastructure.  “5G  will  be  a  hundred  times   faster   than   LTE   networks,   and   [the]   data   transfer   rate   is  projected  to  be  over  20  Gbps,”  said  SK  Telecom.  

 

February 12, 2016

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Page 2: Weekly Insights by FBIC Global Retail Tech Feb. 12 2016 · !1 february 12, 2016 deborah(weinswig,(executive(director–head(of(global(retail(&(technology(deborahweinswig@fung1937.com((us:(917.655.6790((hk:(852.6119.1779((cn

       

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February 12, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 

FROM  THE  DESK  OF  DEBORAH  WEINSWIG  

It   is   that   time  of   year  again.  As  February  14  approaches,  people  across   the  globe  are  dearly  hoping   that   their  carefully  crafted  Valentine’s  messages  will  win  the  attention  of  those  they  are  pursuing.  

We  are  talking,  of  course,  about  research  firms  and  PR  agencies  pining  for  the  media  to  pay  attention  to  their  Valentine’s  Day  spending  estimates.  Here,  we  summarize  some  of  the  latest  estimates  published  for  the  US  and  UK,  and  offer  our  view  on  the  importance  of  such  seasonal  events  to  retail.  

How  Big  Is  Valentine’s  Day  Spending?  Very   big,   is   the   short   answer.   Americans   will   spend   fully   $19.7  billion  on  loved  ones  this  Valentine’s  Day,  says  the  National  Retail  Federation  (NRF),  based  on  its  Valentine’s  Day  Consumer  Spending  Survey,  conducted  by  Prosper  Insight  and  Analytics.    

Some  55%  of  US  consumers  polled  said  they  will  mark  Valentine’s  Day,  spending  an  average  of  $146.84  on  products  and  services,  up  3%   from   last   year.   Candy   is   the   top   Valentine’s   category   by  number  of  shoppers,  and  is  expected  to  account  for  $1.7  billion  in  sales,  according  to  the  NRF.   In  addition,  an  estimated  $1.1  billion  will  be  spent  on  greetings  cards  this  year,  along  with  $1.9  billion  on  flowers  and  $4.4  billion  on  jewelry.  

We  estimate   that   the  NRF’s   total   spending   figure  of   $19.7  billion  will  be  equivalent  to  7%  of  all  US  retail  and  food-­‐service  sales  (ex  fuel)   in   the   month   of   February.   (Given   that   the   NRF’s   figures  include   spending   on   other   services   such   as   event   tickets,   this   is  likely  to  be  slightly  overstating  the  figure’s  real  share  of  spending).  

In  the  UK,  retail-­‐only  spending  on  Valentine’s  Day   is  estimated  to  reach  £980  million  (US$1.4  billion)  this  year,  according  to  research  agency  Verdict  Retail.  That  equates  to  4.1%  of  estimated  total  February  UK  retail  sales  (ex  fuel)—still  a  very  significant  share  of  a  total  month’s  retail  spending.  

Seasonal  Events  Drive  Footfall  and  Spending  The   absolute   retail   value   of   seasonal   events   such   as   Valentine’s   Day   is   less   important   than   the   market’s  momentum  and  the  ways  retailers  can  use  these  events  to  drive  footfall.    

With  regard  to  market  momentum,  the  NRF  is  predicting  robust  growth  for  US  Valentine’s  Day  spending  this  year  (based  on  its  consumer  survey,  which  was  conducted  in  the  first  half  of  January).  But  we  are  more  cautious.  Last  year,  Valentine’s  Day  fell  on  a  Saturday,  giving  consumers  more  shopping  hours  and  more  opportunities  to  stay  out  later  dining  and  drinking.  We  think  this  will  provide  very  demanding  comparatives—so,  growth  in  spending  may  well  prove  muted  this  Valentine’s  Day  (and  more  still  next  year,  when  February  14  will  fall  on  a  Tuesday).  

With  regard  to  footfall,  Valentine’s  Day  and  other  seasonal  events  can  serve  as  pivots  around  which  retailers  can  drive  shopper  interest  through  a  sense  of  novelty  and  occasion.  With  e-­‐commerce  peeling  away  more  functional  shopping,   retailers   can   use   holidays   such   as  Valentine’s  Day   (and  Halloween   and   Easter)   to   pique   consumers’  interest,  and  thus  encourage  footfall  and  impulse  purchases.  Furthermore,  Valentine’s  Day  specifically  helps  fill  the  retail  lull  between  New  Year’s  and  Easter.  

Despite   these   opportunities   that   Valentine’s   Day   presents   to   retailers,   stores   continue   to   lose   share   of  Valentine’s   Day   spending.   The   NRF’s   survey   found   that   27.9%   of   US   consumers   plan   to   buy   online   this   year  versus  25.1%  in  2015;  that  total  is  up  fully  11  percentage  points  in  just  six  years.    

As  retail  continues  to  change  and  functional  shopping  migrates  online,  we  think  more  store-­‐based  retailers  will  move  beyond  traditional  price  promotions  to  focus  on  differentiation  through  the  shopping  experience,  curation  of   ranges   and   exclusivity   of   product.   In   a  world  where   shoppers   can   find   a   nearly   endless   range   of   products  online,  for  cheap,  seasonal  experiences,  done  well,  can  give  them  a  reason  to  return  to  stores.  

 

   

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February 12, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 

 

 

             

 

               

LinkedIn  Share  Price  Crash  On  February  5,  2015  Figure  1.  LinkedIn:  Share  Price,  Feb  1–Feb  9,  2016  

   

                       Source:  LinkedIn/Capital  IQ      

• LinkedIn’s   shares   plummeted   nearly   44%   on   February   5,   after   the   professional   networking  company  issued  a  downbeat  earnings  forecast  for  2016.    

• In   its   after-­‐hours   FY2015   results   announcement   on   February   4,   the   company   stated  a   35%  revenue  increase  to  $2.9  billion,  with  adjusted  EBITDA  at  26%  of  revenue  and  a  net  income  of  $373  million.  

• Its  1Q16  revenue  guidance  of  $820  million  was  significantly  lower  than  the  $867  million  Wall  Street   consensus;   hence   the   stock   lost   nearly   40%   of   its   value   as   the   market   opened   on  February  5,  and  lost  nearly  44%  by  the  day’s  close.  

   

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FBIC  HAPPENINGS  &  WEINSWIG’S  WATCH  ING  

CHART  OF  THE  WEEK  

 

STAT  OF  THE  WEEK  

 

• This  week,  the  US  FBIC  team  is  celebrating  the  Lunar  New  Year  at  the  Li  &  Fung  New  York  Hub  Chinese  New  Year  Celebration  lunch.  

 

• Google   CEO   Sundar   Pichai   was   awarded   roughly   $199   million   in  restricted  stock  on  February  3.  

• According  to  a  Securities  and  Exchange  Commission  (SEC)  filing,  273,328  Google   class  C   shares  were   awarded   to  Pichai.   The   closing  share  price  on  that  day  was  $726.95.  

• In  an  SEC  document,  Google  had  stated  that  the  equity  award,  granted  biennially,   “encourages   executives   to   take   a   long-­‐term   view   of   the  business.”  

 

$199  Mil.  

Source:  CNBC.com    

 

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February 12, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

US  RETAIL  EARNINGS  

Company  

    Revenues  (USD  Mil.)   Change  YoY   Gross  Margin  (%)   Change   Net  Income  (USD  Mil.)  Change  YoY   Store  Fleet  EOP  

Period   2015     2014     (%)   2015     2014     (BP)   2015     2014     (%)   2015     2014    

Avon  Products     4QE  Dec.      1,607      2,341      (31.3)   58.7   60.7   (201)    (332)   (330)    0.7     N/A   N/A  

CVS  Health     4QE  Dec.      41,145      37,055      11.0     17.7   17.9   (16)    1,498     1,321      13.4     9,623     7,981    

Estée  Lauder   2QE  Dec.    3,125      3,045      2.6     81.2   81.2   (3)    446     436      2.4     1,060     940    

Skechers  U.S.A     4QE  Dec.      723      570      26.8     45.6   45.2   42    29     22      34.3     1,300     1,232    

Whole  Foods   1QE  Jan.    4,829      4,671      3.4     34.0   34.8   (83)    157      167      (6.0)   431     399    

Avon  Products     4QE  Dec.      1,607      2,341      (31.3)   58.7   60.7   (201)    (332)   (330)    0.7     N/A   N/A  

Source:  Company  reports  

US  RETAIL  HEADLINES  Cheap  Smartphones  to  Propel  App  Spending  Past  $100  Billion  (February  10)  Bloomberg  

• According  to  data  provider  App  Annie,  worldwide  mobile  app  store  revenue  will  reach  $101  billion  in  five  years  as  smartphones  become  cheaper  and  data  plans  more  accessible,  drawing  in  consumers  in  developing  countries.  The  number  of  smartphone  and  tablet  users  will  more  than  double  by  2020,  to  6.2  billion,  up  from  2.6  billion  today,  the  company  forecasted.  

• Some  of  the  strongest  growth  will  come  from  India,  Indonesia,  China,  Mexico,  Brazil  and  Turkey.  Revenue  generated  per  device  will  grow  to  $16.20  in  2020  from  $15.40  today,  boosted  by  spending  in  the  Americas,  Europe  and  the  Middle  East,  even  as  average  revenue  declines  slightly  in  the  fast-­‐growing  Asia-­‐Pacific  region,  App  Annie  predicted.  

Target  CEO  Brian  Cornell  Is  Visiting  Customers’  Homes  (January  20)  Star  Tribune  

• Target  CEO  Brian  Cornell  is  meeting  shoppers  in  their  homes  to  get  to  know  the  company’s  changing  customer  and  adding  1,000  IT  jobs  to  meet  growing  needs.  So  far,  he  and  about  a  dozen  key  officers  have  met  with  Hispanic  moms  and  single  millennials  in  various  cities  to  do  some  “fundamental  ethnography  work,”  which  is  a  new  approach  for  the  retail  chain.  

• Cornell  plans  to  make  the  nation’s  second-­‐largest  discount  chain  more  nimble  and  better  able  to  woo  a  generation  of  consumers  who  are  digitally  savvy  and  harder  to  pin  down.  While  the  bulk  of  Target’s  sales  still  come  from  its  stores,  the  company  is  facing  steep  competition  from  online  retailers  such  as  Amazon.com.  

Google’s  Self-­‐Driving  Car  Software  Considered  a  Driver  by  US  Agency  (February  9)  Bloomberg  

• Federal  regulators  have  said  that  they  will  interpret  Google’s  artificial  intelligence  system  in  its  self-­‐driving  cars  as  a  driver.  The  decision  will  help  Google  as  it  works  to  get  its  self-­‐driving  cars  on  US  roads.  In  November,  Google  asked  the  National  Highway  Traffic  Safety  Administration  for  interpretation  of  safety  standards  in  cars  it  seeks  to  produce  that  do  not  have  traditional  controls,  such  as  a  steering  wheel  or  throttle  and  brake  pedals.  

• “If  no  human  occupant  of  the  vehicle  can  actually  drive  the  vehicle,  it  is  more  reasonable  to  identify  the  ‘driver’  as  whatever  (as  opposed  to  whoever)  is  doing  the  driving,”  Paul  Hemmersbaugh,  the  National  Highway  Traffic  Safety  Administration’s  chief  counsel,  said  in  a  February  4  letter.  In  Google’s  case,  its  self-­‐driving  system  “is  actually  driving  the  vehicle,”  he  wrote.  

   

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February 12, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

US  Retail  Imports  to  Grow  by  4.5%  in  First  Half  of  2016  (February  9)  National  Retail  Federation  

• Import  cargo  volume  at  the  nation’s  major  retail  container  ports  is  expected  to  decline  year  over  year  for  the  next  few  months,  but  the  first  half  of  the  year  should  still  amount  to  a  4.5%  increase  compared  with  the  same  period  last  year,  according  to  the  monthly  Global  Port  Tracker  report  released  today  by  the  National  Retail  Federation  (NRF)  and  Hackett  Associates.    

• “Retailers  are  carefully  managing  their  inventories  but  still  need  to  stock  up  on  seasonal  goods  for  spring  and  summer,”  NRF  Vice  President  for  Supply  Chain  and  Customs  Policy  Jonathan  Gold  said.  “Comparisons  with  last  year  are  difficult  because  of  the  surge  of  cargo  after  problems  at  West  Coast  ports  ended,  but  we  think  consumers  will  continue  to  increase  their  spending  this  year  and  retailers  will  be  ready.”    

EUROPE  RETAIL  EARNINGS  

Company  

    Revenues  (USD  Mil.)  Change  in  $  

Change  in  Reporting  Currency   Gross  Margin  (%)   Change  

Net  Income    (USD  Mil.)  

Change  YoY   Store  Fleet  EOP  

Period   2015     2014     (%)       2015     2014     (BP)   2015     2014     (%)   2015     2014    

METRO  Group   1QE  Dec.  31,  2015    18,717      21,618      (13.4)    (1.3)   19.7     19.9      (13.3)   601.3     504.3      19.2      2,057      2,209    

Adidas   FYE  Dec.  31,  2015    18,764      19,266      (2.6)    16   N/A   N/A    N/A     799.4     853.0      (6.3)    N/A      N/A    

Source:  Company  reports  

EUROPE  RETAIL  HEADLINES  New  Look  Reports  5.6%  YoY  Sales  Growth  in  Third  Quarter  (February  9)  Company  press  release  

• British  clothing  retailer  New  Look  reported  5.6%  year-­‐over-­‐year  sales  growth,  to  £1,175  million  (US$1,700  million),  in  its  third  quarter.  Overall  comparable  sales  were  up  4.5%  and  UK  comparable  sales  were  up  4.3%  year  over  year  during  the  period.  New  Look’s  UK  comparable  sales  during  the  seven-­‐week  Christmas  trading  period  were  up  3.2%.  

• Adjusted  EBITDA  for  the  period  grew  by  6.4%  year  over  year,  to  £205  million  (US$297  million),  while  adjusted  profit  before  tax  was  up  38.9%,  to  £88  million  (US$127  million).  The  company  stated  that  its  plans  to  expand  in  China  are  on  track  and  that  it  will  reach  its  goal  of  opening  85  stores  in  the  country  by  the  end  of  2016.  

John  Lewis  Signs  Deal  with  Online  Fashion  Retailer  Finery  (February  9)  Retail-­‐week.com  

• John  Lewis,  one  of  Britain’s  largest  department  store  chains,  has  agreed  to  stock  Finery’s  products  in  six  of  its  stores.  Finery,  a  women’s  clothing  and  accessories  fashion  brand,  was  founded  last  year  and  has  already  managed  to  build  a  100,000-­‐strong  customer  base  and  bring  in  £5  million  (US$7.2  million)  in  revenue.  

• Finery  will  have  concessions  in  John  Lewis’s  Oxford  Street  and  Sloane  Square  stores  in  London,  and  also  in  locations  in  Manchester,  Cheadle,  Birmingham  and  Liverpool,  starting  Friday,  February  12.  Finery  founder  Nickyl  Raithatha  said  that  this  partnership  will  help  “accelerate  awareness”  of  the  brand.  

Aldi  Launches  First  Stores  in  South  Australia  (February  8)  Retailanalysis.igd.com  

• German  supermarket  chain  Aldi  has  begun  its  expansion  in  South  Australia  by  opening  four  new  stores  there.  The  stores,  which  feature  a  new  look  tailored  for  Australia,  are  all  located  in  the  suburbs  of  Adelaide.  

• The  grocer  aims  to  open  five  more  stores  in  March  and  16  by  the  end  of  the  year,  in  order  to  consolidate  its  position  in  South  and  Western  Australia.  With  plans  to  open  at  least  50  stores  

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February 12, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

in  the  long  term,  the  company  has  also  intensified  its  promotions.  Aldi  Australia  reportedly  spent  AUD  $28.9  million  (US$20.5  million)  on  advertising  in  2015.  

Groupe  Casino  to  Sell  Its  Stake  in  Thai  Grocer  Big  C  Supercenter  (February  7)  Ft.com  

• French  retailer  Groupe  Casino  has  announced  that  it  will  sell  its  stake  in  Thailand’s  Big  C  Supercenter  for  €3.1  billion  (US$3.5  billion)  to  TCC  Group.  This  year,  Casino  announced  a  €4  billion  (US$4.5  billion)  deleveraging  plan,  which  includes  selling  its  stake  in  the  Thai  supermarket  and  its  retail  assets  in  Vietnam.  

• The  move  is  a  key  stage  in  Groupe  Casino’s  attempt  to  reduce  its  debt.  The  sale’s  completion  is  expected  by  the  end  of  March,  and  should  bring  the  French  retailer’s  debt  down  by  €3.3  billion  (US$3.7  billion).  

Amazon  Prime  Launches  in  Belgium  (February  5)  Ecomony.com  

• Amazon’s  Prime  membership  program,  which  offers  unlimited  access  to  a  collection  of  e-­‐books  and  media  and  one-­‐hour  delivery  on  orders,  is  now  available  to  customers  in  Belgium.  The  annual  membership  fee  is  €49  (US$55),  and  is  lower  than  the  fee  in  both  the  US  (US$99)  and  in  the  UK  (£79/US$88).  

• For  customers  between  the  ages  of  18  and  24,  Amazon  is  offering  annual  membership  at  a  discounted  fee  of  €24  (US$27).  The  services  in  Belgium,  however,  are  more  limited  than  those  offered  in  the  US  and  the  UK.  

ASIA  TECH  HEADLINES  IMJ  Launches  New  US$52  Million  Fund  Focused  on  Japanese  Startups  (February  11)  TechinAsia  

• IMJ   Investment   Partners   has   a   new   fund   that,   although   smaller   than   both   Rakuten’s  US$86.93  million   fund  and  Globis’s  US$139.50  million   fund,  puts   it  on  par  with  other  well-­‐known  Japanese  venture  capital  firms  such  as  Gree  Ventures,  which  has  a  US$43.59  million  fund.  

• IMJ’s  fund  will  mainly  contribute  to  startups  in  stages  above  series  A,  and  the  firm  is  looking  for   companies   to   disrupt   large   traditional  markets   such   as   banking,   healthcare,   education  and  security.  

SK  Telecom  and  Ericsson  to  Build  Pilot  5G  Network  (February  11)  TechCrunch  

• SK  Telecom  and  Ericsson  will  build  a  network   that  connects  handsets   to  wireless  networks  and  wired  infrastructure  in  order  to  trial  a  technology  they  have  been  testing  in  lab  settings.  

• “5G  will  be  a  hundred  times  faster  than  LTE  networks,  with  [the]  data  transfer  rate  projected  to  be  over  20  Gbps.  When  5G   is  commercialized,  we  will  be  able   to   transfer…data  such  as  holograms   and   virtual   reality   that   we   cannot   transfer   in   the   current   (4G)   speed,”   said   SK  Telecom.  

Chinese  Tech  Group  Led  by  Qihoo  360  Bids  US$1.2  Billion  for  Browser  Maker  Opera  (February  11)  TechCrunch  

• Norway-­‐headquartered   browser   maker   Opera   Software   confirmed   that   it   has   received   a  US$1.2  billion  acquisition  offer  from  a  group  led  by  Chinese  consumer  tech  companies  Qihoo  360  and  Kunlun  Tech.  

• The   consortium   is   called   Golden   Brick.   Qihoo   360   is   one   of   China’s   most   visible   (and  controversial)   Internet   companies,   which   recently   went   private   in   a   US$9.3   billion   deal.  Newly   listed   games   firm   Kunlun   snapped   up   a   majority,   60%   share,   in   gay   dating   service  Grindr  last  month.  Yonglian  Investment  is  the  last  member  of  the  consortium.  

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February 12, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

India’s  Paytm  Is  Raising  Another  US$400  Million  to  Build  Out  Its  New  Payment  Bank  (February  11)  TechCrunch  

• Just   months   after   it   reportedly   raised   US$680   million,   Paytm   is   looking   to   raise   US$400  million  by  June  to  help  with  the  launch  of  its  new  payments  business,  Paytm  Payment  Bank,  say  sources  close  to  the  company.  

• In  order  to  fund  customer  discounts  and  fuel  expansion,  Flipkart,  Snapdeal  and  Paytm  have  collectively   raised  over  US$4  billion   since  2014.  That  was  also   the   same  year   that  Amazon  CEO  Jeff  Bezos  vowed  to  invest  US$2  billion  in  the  company’s  India  operations.  

Amazon  Expands  Logistics  Reach  in  China  (February  10)  Channel  NewsAsia  

• Last  year,  Amazon  registered  its  Chinese  subsidiary,  Beijing  Century  Joyo  Courier,  as  a  freight  forwarder—a   type   of   broker   that   does   not   own   ships,   but   handles   customs   and   other  documentation—with  China’s  transport  ministry.  The  move  allowed  Amazon  to  export  cargo  out  of  the  country.  

• The   company’s   plans   include   handling   cargo   and   customs   for   goods   headed   to   ports   in  Japan,   Europe   and   the   US.   Analysts   say   the   move   could   help   Amazon   eventually   offer  shipping  services  to  other  companies  and  compete  with  the  likes  of  UPS  and  DHL  Worldwide  Express.  

LATAM  RETAIL  HEADLINES  Latin  American  Tech  Update  (February  10)  Latinone.com  

• Despite  Yahoo’s  closure  of  operations   in  Mexico  City,   there  has  been  much  anticipation  of  the  opening  of  Google’s  new  campus  in  São  Paulo,  Brazil,  which  is  targeted  for  mid-­‐February.  

• Google   vehicles   began   capturing   images   in   Brazil   in   early   January   for   integration   into   its  Google  Street  View  database,  and  Apple  has  added  traffic  information  to  its  Maps  for  users  in  Mexico  to  better  predict  travel  times.  Apple  had  previously  confirmed  plans  to  open  retail  stores  in  Mexico  and  Argentina,  and  Samsung  is  planning  to  expand  in  Brazil  to  increase  the  coverage  of  its  Samsung  Pay  platform.  

Venezuelan  Malls  Halve  Opening  Times  (February  8)  BBC  

• Shopping   centers   in  Caracas,  Venezuela,  plan   to  halve   their  opening   times   to   four  hours  a  day  in  order  to  comply  with  a  government  energy-­‐rationing  order.  

• Drought  caused  by  El  Niño  has  brought  water  in  the  country’s  hydroelectric  dams  to  critically  low   levels,   and   businesspeople   expect   the   cut   in   hours   to   hurt   banks,   health   and  medical  centers,  pharmacies,  supermarkets  and,  particularly,   restaurants   that  depend  on  electricity  to  refrigerate  and  preserve  food.  

Colombian  Menswear  Chain  Gef  Expands  in  Menswear  (February  8)  WWD  

• Apparel   chain   Gef   has   launched   Gef   Men   to   benefit   from   strong   menswear   sales   in  Colombia,  where   it  plans   to  operate  10  shops   this  year.  Moreover,  Gef  plans   to  double   its  size,  to  nearly  400  stores  with  sales  of  more  than  US$400  million,  by  2020.  

• Last   year,  Gef’s  menswear   sales   grew  by  20%,   compared   to   just   6%–7%   for  womenswear.  The  expansion  should  help  grow  menswear  to  34%  of  Gef’s  total  annual  sales,  compared  to  29%  today.  

   

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  8

February 12, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

Falabella  Plans  to  Open  Third  Store  in  Brazil,  Plus  Two  More  in  2017  (February  8)  Emol.com  

• Despite   the  current  situation  of   the  Brazilian  economy,  Chilean  retailer  Falabella  continues  to  stress  that  it  is  interested  in  expanding  in  the  country,  and  it  has  announced  plans  to  open  its  third  store  in  Brazil  under  its  home  improvement  brand,  Sodimac.  

• The  company’s  plans  call  for  a  total  of  61  stores  in  Brazil  by  2017.  These  will  account  for  44%  of  the  US$4  million  earmarked  for  the  opening  of  131  new  stores.  Sodimac  and  construction  material   store   Dicico   are   part   of   the   assets   acquired   in   2013   from  Markinvest   Gestão   de  Participações,  in  which  Falabella  holds  a  50.1%  stake.  

Colombian  Fashion  Institute  Inexmoda  Plans  Expansion  in  Latin  America  (February  4)  WWD  

• Export  and  fashion  institute  Inexmoda  plans  to  expand  its  Épica  designer  development  group  to  include  Mexico,  and  to  offer  fashion  and  consulting  services  in  Ecuador,  Central  America  and   Peru.   The  move   is   expected   to   increase   revenues   by   15%,   to   nearly   US$7  million,   by  2019.  

• Inexmoda  also  plans  to  continue  to  expand  Colombiatex  and  Colombiamoda,  which  generate  more  than  US$600  million  in  potential  sourcing  revenues  annually  and  have  turned  Medellín  into  a  top  fashion  capital  in  Latin  America.  

   

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February 12, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

     E  =  estimated  

 

EARNINGS  CALENDAR    

Company  

Earnings  Release  Period   Date  

Sales  ($  Mil.)       EPS  

Currency  Consensus  TY   LY  Actual  

 

Consensus  TY   LY  Actual  

Fossil  Group   4Q  15   Feb  16   931   1,065    

1.45   2.96   USD  

Walmart   4Q  16   Feb  18   130,809   131,565    

1.47   1.58   USD  

Nordstrom   4Q  16    Feb  18   4,225   4,043    

1.24   1.33   USD  

Kering   FY  15   Feb  19   11,149   10,038    

8.79   9.12   EUR  

VF  Corp   4Q  15   Feb  19   3,646   3,579    

1.02   0.98   USD  

Dillard’s   4Q  16   Feb  22  (E)   2,121   2,180    

2.59   3.17   USD  

Esprit   S1  16   Feb  23   19,699   10,716    

N/A   0.02   HKD  

Macy’s   4Q  16   Feb  23   8,831   9,364    

1.96   2.45   USD  

Home  Depot   4Q  16   Feb  23   20,354   19,162    

1.10   1.10   USD  

Westfield     FY  15   Feb  23   1,218   819    

0.38   (0.12)   USD  

Forest  City   4Q  15   Feb  23   327   252    

0.33   0.95   USD  

Steve  Madden   4Q  15   Feb  24   344   343    

0.43   0.34   USD  

Target     4Q  16   Feb  24   21,936   21,751    

1.55   1.47   USD  

Dia   FY  15   Feb  24   1,272   966    

(0.23)   0.17   USD  

L  Brands   4Q  16   Feb  24   4,396   4,069    

2.05   1.89   USD  

Gildan  Activewear   4Q  15   Feb  24   503   666    

0.28   0.50   USD  

Lowe's     4Q  16   Feb  24   13,052   12,540    

0.59   0.46   USD  

TJX   4Q  16   Feb  24   8,729   8,304    

0.94   0.93   USD  

Dollar  Tree     4Q  16   Feb  24  (E)   5,408.3   2,475.6    

1.16   1.07   USD  

Kohl's     4Q  16   Feb  25   6,388   6,337    

1.57   1.83   USD  

Loblaw     4Q  15   C  Feb  25   10,812   11,413    

0.91   0.67   CAD  

           

     

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February 12, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 

EVENT  CALENDAR        

Event   Location   Date(s)  FBIC  Presenting  

Ambiente   Frankfurt,  Germany   February  12–16    

Supermarket  News  Toy  Fair   New  York,  NY   February  13–16    

CAGNY  –  Consumer  Goods  Conference   Boca  Raton,  FL   February  15–19    

AAFA  Sourcing  @  MAGIC  2016   Las  Vegas,  NV   February  16–17    

MAGIC  Tell  Your  Fashion  Story   Las  Vegas,  NV   February  16–18    

Big  Data  &  Analytics  Retail  Summit   London,  UK   February  16–18    

JDA  Webinar  –  Intelligent  Fulfillment   Webinar   February  17    

SAP  –  Infotag  Social   Düsseldorf,  Germany   February  17    

Brand  Innovators  Mobile  &  Millennials   Boston,  MA   February  18    

Innovation  Enterprise  Data  Science  Innovation  Summit   San  Diego,  CA   February  18–19    Innovation  Enterprise  Predictive  Analytics  Innovation  Summit   San  Diego,  CA   February  18–19    

Asia  Retail  Congress   Mumbai,  India   February  19–20  Swaroop  Muralidhar  

London  Fashion  Week   London,  UK   February  19–23    

Pepcom  MobileFocus  Global   Barcelona,  Spain   February  21    

ShowStoppers  @  Mobile  World  Congress   Barcelona,  Spain   February  21    

NanoIsrael  2016   Tel  Aviv,  Israel   February  22–23    

Mobile  World  Congress   Barcelona,  Spain   February  22–25    

Israeltech  @  Mobile  World  Congress   Barcelona,  Spain   February  22–25    

Innovation  Enterprise  Wearable  Tech  in  Sport  Summit   Melbourne,  Australia   February  23–24    

JDA  Webinar  –  Intelligent  Planning   Webinar   February  24    

Wearable  Technology  Conference  2016  EUROPE   Barcelona,  Spain   February  24    

Entertainment  Experience  Evolution  Conference   Los  Angeles,  CA   February  24–25  Marie  Driscoll  

Brand  Innovators  Social  Media   New  York,  NY   February  25    

ICSC’s  NARFT  Meeting   Santa  Monica,  CA   February  25    

Industry  of  Things  World  USA  2016   San  Diego,  CA   February  25–26    

The  NGA  Show     Las  Vegas,  NV   February  28–March  2    

Retail  Supply  Chain  Conference  2016   Dallas,  TX   February  28–March  2    

RSA  2016  –  Israeli  Cyber  Security  Showcase   San  Francisco,  CA   February  29–March  3    

Innovation  Enterprise  Smart  Cities  Innovation  Summit   Singapore   March  2–3    

Paris  Fashion  Week   Paris,  France   March  2–9    

Target  Financial  Community  Meeting   New  York,  NY   March  2    

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February 12, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 

Deborah  Weinswig,  CPA  Executive  Director—Head  of  Global  Retail  &  Technology  Fung  Business  Intelligence  Centre  New  York:  917.655.6790    Hong  Kong:  852  6119  1779  China:  86  186  1420  3016  [email protected]    Filippo  Battaini  [email protected]  

Marie  Driscoll,  CFA  [email protected]  

John  Harmon,  CFA  [email protected]  

Aragorn  Ho  [email protected]  

John  Mercer  [email protected]  

Shoshana  Pollack  [email protected]  

Kiril  Popov  [email protected]  

Jing  Wang    [email protected]  

Steven  Winnick  [email protected]  

   HONG  KONG:  10th  Floor,  LiFung  Tower  888  Cheung  Sha  Wan  Road,  Kowloon  Hong  Kong  Tel:  852  2300  2470    NEW  YORK:  1359  Broadway,  9th  Floor  New  York,  NY  10018  Tel:  646  839  7017    LONDON:  242-­‐246  Marylebone  Road  London,  NW1  6JQ  United  Kingdom  Tel:  44  (0)20  7616  8988    FBICGROUP.COM