Weekly Market Data Analysis

Week at a Glance

Average Price (Vol Weighted)

Median PriceAverage Price this week last yearNEM Average Price (excl. Tas)% of time Price <$50/MWh

Storage as at 21 October 2019Percentage FullCompared to last week 18

Max DemandMin DemandAverage DemandWeekly Energy Demand

BasslinkTotal ExportTotal Import% time counter price flow

Total FCAS Costs (Tas)

Beginning of this week (GWh)Percentage fullBeginning of last week (GWh)Change from last week (GWh) 0% 4%

Compared to last year (GWh) 1% 28%

Generation~Hydro Generation (incl. exports)Gas GenerationWind Generation

NHW - Northern Head Waters

Sources: Hydro Tasmania/NEM-ReviewTM

Compiled by OTTER Page 1 Week 43 (20 October 2019 - 26 October 2019)

45.6419.6

GWh

98.22

97.2193.1880.33

2.7

%GWh

MWMW

46.5

1229758

425

27.36

Week 43: 20 October 2019 to 26 October 2019 (Sunday - Saturday)

6737

$/MWh

$/MWh$/MWh$/MWh%

GWh

947178.04

5.34

6755

6737*46.5%

105.994.39

Water Storage Situation(as at Monday 21 October 2019)

System

*This figure represents system storage levels inclusive of Lake Gairdner, Lake Margaret and Lake Plimsoll.

~Excludes distributed energy resources such as solar PV generation

MWGWh

GWhGWh%

406.78

443

GWh

GWh

$1000s

NHW

72.0%

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

40

41

42

43

Average Price ($/MWh) - past 4 weeks

Week

13.3

42.8

52.5

45.6

24.0

6.9

2.2

5.3

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40

40

41

42

43

Basslink Import/Export (GWh) - past 4 weeks

WeekImport

Export

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct

Dem

and/B

L flo

w (

MW

)

Tasmanian Demand & Basslink flow during the week

BL Import Tasmanian Generation Tasmanian Demand

TASMANIAN

MARKETWATCH

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Sto

rage (

GW

h)

Week

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Fact Sheet Compiled using information from NEM-ReviewTM and AEMO published data

Market Price This week Last week ChangeAverage Price (Volume weighted) $/MWh 98.22 112.72 DOWN by 12.9%Median Price $/MWh 97.21 102.67 DOWN by 5.3%Maximum Price $/MWh 245.02 323.68Minimum Price $/MWh 4.67 69.35% of intervals price was below $50/MWh % 2.7% 0.0%

Recorded max weekly Avg since 29.4.06 $/MWh 406.10 Week 25/2009Recorded min weekly Avg since 29.4.06 $/MWh 0.46 Week 6/2010

Demand OccurrenceMaximum Demand during the week MW 1229Minimum Demand during the week MW 758Average Demand during the week MW 947Weekly System Load Factor (LF) % 77.05%Spring Average LF (Sep 18 - Nov 18) % 71.42%Weekly Energy Demand GWh 178.04(Basslink + Gas) Share % 28.00%

Recorded maximum peak for 2019 MW 1727Recorded maximum peak to date MW 1760 11 August 2008

Basslink Export Import Net/TotalTotal Export/Import GWh 5.34 45.64 Net Import 40.30Max flow during export/import MW 460 429Inter-regional revenue generated* $1000s 304.10 1110.25 1414.35Max +ve price differential observed $/MWh 214.09 247.10Max -ve price differential observed $/MWh -79.82 -68.25No of intervals of counter price flow 6 60% time of counter price flow % 1.79% 17.9% 19.6%No-go zone flows (% of total MWh flows) % 0.94% 0.00% 0.10%

* Losses in the link are not considered in the calculation of residues.

FCAS Costs Tasmania Mainland Total NEMTotal FCAS costs $1000s 406.78 3822.68 4229.46% of Total Energy Costs % 2.60% 1.47% 1.54%Cost of Lower Services $1000s 49.79 602.01 651.80% of Total Energy Costs % 0.32% 0.23% 0.24%Cost of Raise Services $1000s 356.99 3220.66 3577.65% of Total Energy Costs % 2.28% 1.24% 1.30%

Price Spikes in Tasmania (when price was > 3 x Weekly Average)Weekly Average = $98.22/MWh

Compiled by OTTER Page 2 Week 43 (20 October 2019 - 26 October 2019)

22 October 2019 7:00 AM

25 October 2019 2:00 AM

24 June 2019

The spot price in Tasmania did not reach more than three times the weekly average during the week.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

21-Oct-19 22-Oct-19 23-Oct-19 24-Oct-19 25-Oct-19 26-Oct-19

$/M

Wh

MW

Demand and Price Profiles of the week - Tasmania Demand Price

14.8

57.2

25.6

2.4

Wind

Hydro

Basslink

Gas *

0 50 100* represents output from TVPS

% weekly generation by source

Market snapshot

Compiled by OTTER Page 3 Week 43 (20 October 2019 - 26 October 2019)

Other Market News and Trends

Compared to last week, average spot prices for the week decreased in all NEM jurisdictions. Weekly average volume weighted spot

prices ranged between $70.79/MWh in South Australia and $98.22/MWh in Tasmania. Tasmanian spot prices were mostly in the

$76-$150 MWh range during the week.

Turnover in the energy market was $275.12 million (turnover in the Tasmanian region was $15.63 million). The total cost of ancillary

services for the week was $4.23 million or 1.54% of energy market turnover. Tasmanian contribution to total FCAS costs was 10%.

0.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2%4.5%

53.0%

37.2%

2.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

<10

11-2

0

21-3

0

31-4

0

41-5

0

51-7

5

76-1

00

101-1

50

151-2

00

201-5

00

501-5

000

>5000

Occurr

en

ce (

%)

Price Range ($/MWh)

Price Distribution within the week (Tasmania)

Occurrence

% below the range

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

QLD NSW VIC SA TAS

Weekly Average prices in the NEM ($/MWh)

Last week

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

NEM Week

Tasmanian share of total NEM FCAS costs in 2019Tasmania Mainland

Tasmanian rainfall for the week

Compiled by OTTER Page 4 Week 43 (20 October 2019 - 26 October 2019)

Map showing rainfall (mm) for the week over Hydro catchment areas.

Wholesale Electricity Market Contract Regulation

here.

Traffic Light Indicators

here

Q120 1 1 Yes

Q220 1 1 Yes

Q320 3 3 Yes

Q420 3 3 Yes

Q121 3 3 Yes

Q221 3 3 Yes

Q321 3 3 Yes

Q421 3 3 Yes

Key:3

2

1

Compiled by OTTER Page 5 Week 43 (20 October 2019 - 26 October 2019)

Disclaimer: Although this report has been prepared in good faith using information and reports publicly available from web sites and

other sources, the Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator assumes no liability as to the reliability and accuracy of the information

provided. Readers should refer to the 'Guide to reading Market Watch' for definitions of terms and an overview of the data and charts

used in this weekly bulletin.

The traffic light indicators advise market participants of the availability of energy for Regulator-approved contracts under the Wholesale

Contract Regulatory Instrument in each of the eight forward quarters in which Hydro Tasmania is required to offer approved contracts.

For more information on the role of the traffic light indicators refer to the Market Watch Readers Guide available

Limited head room (0-130MW of capacity, 0-200GWh of energy)

availableNo head room available

Active

Contract

Quarter

Significant head room (>130MW of capacity, >200GWh of energy) still

available

To help you understand the information in this section refer to the Regulator's Wholesale Pricing page available

Approved financial contract offer prices for 22 October 2019

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Q120 Q220 Q320 Q420 Q121 Q221 Q321 Q421

$/M

Wh

Contract quarter - calendar years

Cap Peak swap Base load swap Load following swap

Capacity Energy