welcome to the industrial revolution · would this headline surprise the 18th century? gaffney,...
TRANSCRIPT
Welcome to the Industrial Revolution
Brent Giles
Research Director
Welcome to the Industrial Revolution (you’re late)
Welcome to the Industrial Revolution!
Welcome to the Industrial Revolution (you’re late)
Welcome to the Industrial Revolution! (You’re late.)
Agenda 1. Welcome to the revolution 2. Viva la evolution 3. Evolutionary strategies
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In retrospect:
= Industrial revolution shocks the world!
+
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In fact, things were a little more complex:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution#Causes_for_occurrence_in_Britain
Industrial revolution!
1733: Flying shuttle, John Kay
1789: Power loom, Edmund Cartwright
1764: Spinning Jenny, James Hargreaves
1769: Water frame, Richard Arkwright
1709: Blast furnace, Abraham Darby
1698: Water pump, Thomas Savery
1712: Piston engine, Thomas Newcomen
1778: Steam engine, James Watt
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What does a new technology breakthrough look like?
“James Watt's real fame wasn't inventing the engine, it was jumping ahead 60 years on the curve and making an economic one possible.”
http://www.cuug.ab.ca/branderr/eeepc/017_coal.html
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Classic interpretation (sans elbow grease):
http://kk.org/thetechnium/2009/07/was-moores-law/
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The Industrial Revolution then and now
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution#Causes_for_occurrence_in_Britain
Rising market demand for coal drives mines deeper; flooding requires pumps
British parliament passes protections against Indian textiles
Innovation pushing major changes in industry
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Would this headline surprise the 18th century?
GAFFNEY, S.C. — The old textile mills here are mostly gone now. Gaffney Manufacturing, National Textiles, Cherokee — clangorous, dusty, productive engines of the Carolinas fabric trade — fell one by one to the forces of globalization. Just as the Carolinas benefited when manufacturing migrated first from the Cottonopolises of England to the mill towns of New England and then to here, where labor was even cheaper, they suffered in the 1990s when the textile industry mostly left the United States.
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Revolutionary hero:
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+ =
Hero, I tell you!
= Industrial revolution shocks the world!
+
= +
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Technology projects fail because they perform poorly… they don’t meet the market’s needs, usually predictably…
… and that doesn’t begin to capture time wasted on projects that went nowhere…
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But wait, we have a stage gate process…
Tollgates are designed to put projects out of their misery, not generate ideas
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But wait, we have ideation…
Too late… does this capture the complexity of the market?
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If our products and production lines look like this…
Why does idea generation still look like this?
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Stepping it up…
Agenda 1. Welcome to the revolution 2. Viva la evolution 3. Evolutionary strategy
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1. Awareness
2. vs.
2. Inclusion vs. 3. A common Framework vs.
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How do we turn technology revolution to evolution?
1. Awareness
2. vs.
2. Inclusion vs. 3. A common Framework vs.
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How do we turn technology revolution to evolution?
The world is information rich, but you have to make use of it
It’s not enough to see an opportunity from the most convenient angle
1. vs.
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How do we turn technology revolution to evolution?
1. Awareness
vs.
Hero method:
= +
= +
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“Fusion energy. Twenty years, we have power for the world. I can’t even retire after we finish this. I still have to find another job after this is done.”
= +
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Future Nobel Prize winner:
1. You think you know the price of a barrel of crude oil this week to within $5?
2. You have ever actually bought a barrel of crude oil?
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…WHY DO WE NEED YET ANOTHER KIND OF ENERGY?
Two questions:
What drives the movement toward next generation energy?
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11708-014-0303-0 24
Oil wins:
Record-breaking next-generation car!
= + High performance battery Unconventional energy
= +
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Electrics win:
Record-breaking next-generation car!
= + High performance battery Unconventional energy
= +
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Renewables and grid storage win:
Record-breaking next-generation car!
= + High performance battery Unconventional energy
= +
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How do we turn technology revolution to evolution?
1. Awareness
2. vs.
2. Inclusion vs. 3. A common Framework vs.
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2. Inclusion
1. vs.
“Firms with… diversity [in leadership] are 45% likelier to report a growth in market share over the previous year and 70% likelier to report that the firm captured a new market.” –Harvard Business Review
https://hbr.org/2013/12/how-diversity-can-drive-innovation
“A given firm generates on average over $40 million more economic value with at least one woman on its top management team”, BUT ONLY IF THE FIRM IS INNOVATION-BASED.–Strategic Management J.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/smj.1955/full 29
How do we turn innovation revolution to evolution?
How do we turn innovation revolution to evolution? 2. Inclusion
1. vs.
Diversity forces changes in communication style
It reduces assumed common knowledge
It forces communicators to explicitly lay out an argument, sometimes exposing its flaws
Diversity can be as simple as including an engineer on a team of chemists
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How do we turn innovation revolution to evolution?
1. Awareness
2. vs.
2. Inclusion vs. 3. A common Framework vs.
31
What does a new technology breakthrough look like?
“James Watt's real fame wasn't inventing the engine, it was jumping ahead 60 years on the curve and making an economic one possible.”
http://www.cuug.ab.ca/branderr/eeepc/017_coal.html
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0
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1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800
Te
chn
olo
gy
me
tric
Measurable progress
Defining a threshold for us to reach
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New technologies strive to reach thresholds
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1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800
Te
chn
olo
gy
me
tric
Measurable progress
Defining a threshold for us to reach
The growth of markets and improvements in existing technologies define useful thresholds
Strategic considerations such as regulations move thresholds
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New technologies strive to reach thresholds
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1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Tra
nsi
ste
r co
un
t 10
x
Computing power
Visible progress: new applications with each improvement
1997: Deep blue chess champion
2015: Commercial hologram interface
2002: First household robot
2019: First emergency response robot
1958: First integrated circuit
2011: Watson Jeopardy champion
1977: Apple II
1964: First desktop computer
1954: First transistor radio
1943: First programmable digital computer
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1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900
Stealth progress: very few futurists saw an airplane in the near term
Bleriot crosses English Channel 1909
First practical internal combustion engine 1876
Useful threshold: no closely related applications below this line
Efficient wing 1902
Wing warping 1899
Aluminum engine 1903
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Po
orl
y d
efin
ed m
etri
c
Power
LIft
Control
Wastewater volume: 100 ML/day
Population: 180,000 people
Energy consumption: 0.4 kWh/m3
Staff: 46
Sludge production: 3150 tons/year
dry, or 12,600 tons/year at 25% solids
Minimum footprint: 12.5 acres
(Hydraulic retention time: 6.5 hours)
Annual operating cost: $4
million/year
Wastewater technology
25%
23%
20%
9%
6%
5% 4%
10%
Opex breakdown for wastewater treatment
Sludge transport/disposal Electricity
Staff Discharge fees
Chemicals Administration
Maintenance Other
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MBR INC: Can we do better???
0
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50
60
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
% o
pe
x im
pro
vem
en
t x
acc
ess
ible
m
ark
et
Year
Addressable market size: $40 billion
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Agenda 1. Welcome to the revolution 2. Viva la evolution 3. Evolutionary strategy
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How do we turn innovation revolution to evolution? Communicating markets and
competitors in a simple way stimulates new ideas
It also allows for more innovative strategy:
The genius
The gambler
The inside job
The switcheroo
The cold case
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How do we turn innovation revolution to evolution? The genius
The gambler
The inside job
The switcheroo
The cold case
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The genius Genius is rare, especially in
today’s complicated systems
The strategy works best for makers of critical components
High-risk, not necessarily high reward
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Stroke of genius: Lithium-sulfur batteries twice as potent as Li-ion?
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It can be hard to be a genius:
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How do we turn innovation revolution to evolution? The genius
The gambler
The inside job
The switcheroo
The cold case
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0
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2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Ke
y p
erf
orm
an
ce in
dic
ato
r
The gambler: letting the chumps fall where they may…
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The gambler Expert gamblers only bet big when the odds are on their
side: this can be a cautious approach
The gambler works best for materials producers and other basic components producers who can find common needs in upcoming technologies
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Looking at next generation energy again, through the eyes of a gambler:
= +
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Looking at next generation energy again, through the eyes of a gambler:
= + = + = +
= + 49
U.S. Schools Ranks Highest for Machine Vision Partnership Opportunity
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Source: Lux Research Seeing the Value in Machine Vision Partnerships
How do we turn innovation revolution to evolution? Communicating markets and
competitors in a simple way stimulates new ideas and improves buy-in
It also allows for more innovative strategy:
The genius
The gambler
The inside job
The switcheroo
The cold case
51
The inside job Insiders know a space well but aren’t genius: “Fast
followers” are insiders
Insiders have all but one or two critical components, which they search the world (or plunder their competitors) to find
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1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920
The inside job:
Bleriot crosses English Channel 1909
Bleriot’s company SPAD builds more than 14,000 aircraft for
WW1
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1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
The inside job: Sony and Goodenough
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How do we turn innovation revolution to evolution? Communicating markets and
competitors in a simple way stimulates new ideas and improves buy-in
It also allows for more innovative strategy:
The genius
The gambler
The inside job
The switcheroo
The cold case
56
0
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2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Ke
y p
erf
orm
an
ce in
dic
ato
r The Switcheroo… repurposing progress
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The switcharoo The switcharoo repurposes a technology that has failed to
reach its market goal
The switcharoo is perfect for a high-knowledge company that sees opportunities where others don’t
Chemical, component, and integrated systems companies can all do a switcheroo
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Recent research: Beyond aquaporins, high-value biomimetic separations using membranes
Quotes adapted from J Chem Technol Biotechnol 89 (2014) 354-371.
Antibiotics “Porins of multidrug resistant bacteria are often impermeable to antibiotics and could
thus be used to remove them from wastewater.”
Biomolecular fishing “…the cost of the ligand is the main
impediment to the widespread application of immuno-ultrafiltration or affinity
ultrafiltration. Aptamers could be one of the keys to breaking this powerful catch-22.”
Sugars separation “Lectins may be able to separate sugars such
as known plant-based sweeteners and compounds with important pharmacological
activity.”
Replacing affinity chromatography
“The packing density of hollow fiber membranes rivals the specific surface area of
chromatographic beads. The bonds can be broken without the use of chemicals simply by
back-flushing.”
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How do we turn innovation revolution to evolution? Communicating markets and
competitors in a simple way stimulates new ideas and improves buy-in
It also allows for more innovative strategy:
The genius
The gambler
The inside job
The switcheroo
The cold case
60
The cold case
Cold cases close the loop on the industrial evolution
Police keep copious notes on file about open cases: they reopen them regularly using new personnel to see if they can make progress
Most companies lose track of old projects immediately, almost by design: but the market the project was meant to address often remains
Well-organized companies should be able to revisit markets repeatedly looking for new opportunities, with a minimum of new work
Employees at all levels should be able to nominate cold cases to be reviewed if they see new opportunities
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Ea
se o
f m
ea
sure
me
nt
1970: First method for determining DNA sequences
1977: First full DNA genome sequenced
1990: sequencing costs $0.75 per base pair
2001: first draft of human genome
2014: Researchers testing handheld sequencer
So what is our strategy?
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To review: This has been going on for 300 years. Why do we still act surprised?
GROWTH STRATEGY TECHNOLOGY
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1. Awareness
2. vs.
2. Inclusion vs. 3. A common Framework vs.
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Review: how do we turn innovation revolution to evolution?
0
1
2
3
4
5
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1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 1800
Te
chn
olo
gy
me
tric
Measurable progress
Review: Defining a threshold for us to reach
The growth of markets and improvements in existing technologies define useful thresholds
Strategic considerations such as regulations move thresholds
65
New technologies strive to reach thresholds
3. A common Framework vs.
Communicating markets and competitors in a simple way stimulates new ideas and improves buy-in
It also allows for more innovative strategy:
The genius
The gambler
The inside job
The switcheroo
The cold case
66
Review: A common framework leads to better strategies
Lux Research Inc. 100 Franklin Street, 8th Floor Boston, MA 02110 USA Phone: +1 617 502 5300 Fax: +1 617 502 5301 www.luxresearchinc.com
Thank you
Brent Giles Research Director [email protected] +1 646 723 0161