NAWEA

Welcome to the North American Wind Energy Academy

Symposium 2015 Bob Thresher, NAWEA Launch Director

NAWEA Symposium

Virginia Tech Blacksburg, Virginia

9 June 2015

NAWEA

“The Wind Vision analysis modeled a future Study Scenario (with various sensitivities) in which 10% of the nation’s electricity demand is met by wind power in 2020, 20% by 2030, and 35% by 2050 “

The DOE Wind Vision 2015

http://www.energy.gov/windvision

NAWEA Analysis Approach and Boundaries

•  The  Wind  Vision  is  inclusive  of  land-­‐based,  offshore,  and  distributed  wind  technologies;  however,  distributed  wind  is  not  explicitly  modeled  or  quan;ta;vely  assessed  

•  Analysis  assumes  policy  as  wri<en  today  (e.g.,  RPS  remains  as  it  is;  PTC  is  expired)  

•  Given  DOE  Report,  Wind  Vision  is  policy  agnosAc;  does  not  evaluate  or  consider  policy    

•  Wind  Vision  considers    the  near-­‐term  (2020),  mid-­‐term  (2030),  and  long-­‐term  (2050)  

NAWEA Deployment Over Time

NAWEA Generation and Installed Capacity Over Time

NAWEA Annual Wind Investments

NAWEA Sensitivity to Cost Scenarios

NAWEA The Wind Cost Reductions

NAWEA Future Turbine Scale

NAWEA Segmented Blades ?

NAWEA Distribution of Generation

NAWEA State by State Distribution

NAWEA

$

The  Wind  Vision  Study  Scenario  results  in  modest  increases  in  electricity  cost  in  the  near-­‐  and  mid-­‐term  (<1%  price  increase),  but  in  the  long  term  electricity  costs  savings  of  2%  are  achieved  by  2050    

The  PotenAal  of  35%  of  the  Country’s  Electricity  Coming  from  Wind  Energy  by  2050    

The Wind Vision Results

NAWEA Needed Investments

NAWEA Needed Actions by Discipline

1.  Wind Power Resources and Site Characterization 2.  Wind Plant Technology Advancement 3.  Supply Chain, Manufacturing and Logistics 4.  Wind Power Performance, Reliability, and Safety 5.  Wind Electricity Delivery and Integration 6.  Wind Siting and Permitting 7.  Collaboration, Education, and Outreach 8.  Workforce Development 9.  Policy Analysis

NAWEA Actions: 1. Wind Resource and Site Characterization

NAWEA Actions: 2. Wind Technology

NAWEA Other Actions:

Other Actions

These are all significant Challenges!

www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

Annual Energy Outlook 2015

AEO2015 Rollout Presentation Center for Strategic and International Studies April 14, 2015 | Washington, D.C. by Adam Sieminski, Administrator

Another Perspective and Renewable Energy and Wind

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Growth in electricity use slows, but electricity use still increases by 24% from 2013 to 2040

20

U.S. electricity use and GDP percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods)

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case

Projections

History 2013

Period Average Growth__ Electricity use GDP

1950s 9.8 4.2 1960s 7.3 4.5 1970s 4.7 3.2 1980s 2.9 3.1 1990s 2.4 3.2 2000-2013 0.7 1.9 2013-2040 0.8 2.4

Gross domestic product

Electricity use

Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015

Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in renewables and gas-fired generation

21

electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

13%

27%

19%

39%

13%

1% Nuclear Petroleum and other liquids

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables

2013 Projections History

16%

18%

34%

31%

1%

1993

11% 13%

19%

53%

4%

27%

18%

38%

16%

1%

2025 2040

Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015

Non-hydro renewable generation grows to double hydropower generation by 2040

22

renewable electricity generation by fuel type billion kilowatthours

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case

0

150

300

450

600

750

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Solar

Geothermal

Biomass Municipal waste/Landfill gas

Wind

2013 Projections History

Conventional Hydroelectric

Power

Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015

23

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

2013 Reference High Oil Price

Low Oil Price

High Oil and Gas Resource

Low Economic

Growth

High Economic

Growth

U.S. renewable generation in all sectors by fuel billion kilowatthours

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015

Growth in wind and solar generation meets a significant portion of projected total electric load growth in all AEO2015 cases

Wind

Solar

Conventional

Geothermal

Biomass and waste

2040

hydroelectric power

Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015

NAWEA The Vision’s Actions are Central to NAWEA’s Mission

•  The Wind Vision “Study Scenario” projects 1,250 TWh/year of wind energy generation in 2040

•  The EIA Annual Energy Outlook projects wind energy generation of 320 TWh/year in 2040

•  The contrasting projections clearly show that the Wind Vision Roadmap Actions are needed in order to realize the Wind Vision

•  The Wind Vision’s multi-disciplinary actions are central to NAWEA’s Mission

NAWEA The Role of NAWEA The purpose of the North American Wind Energy Academy (NAWEA or “the academy”) is to facilitate the growth of wind power into a cost-effective, high-penetration, sustainable national energy source producing at least 10 times the 2012 electricity production levels. To meet this energy goal, the academy will expedite the creation of a critical new wind energy research and development agenda that bridges education, multiple disciplines, and diverse organizations, and fosters national and international collaborations

The  U.S.  Wind  

Industry  

Government  Agencies  &  Laboratories  

 

The  North  American  Wind  Energy  

Academy  University  Research  Groups  

NAWEA

The Vision and Mission Vision The North American Wind Energy Academy will be the leading organization within regions of close proximity to North America, including but not exclusive to the United States, Canada, and Mexico, that are engaged in research, technical, education, market, and policy advancements that will enable wind energy to achieve more than a tenfold increase in 2012 capacity and thereby produce over 20 percent of each region’s or nation’s electrical energy. Mission The mission of NAWEA is to bring together North America’s foremost intellectual assets and to apply their collective talents to overcome the challenges of advancing wind power technology and its applications, optimizing its role in meeting national energy needs in an environmentally sustainable manner, while nurturing the development of future generations of technical, management, and policy experts to assure the continued sustainable advancement and optimization of wind power.

NAWEA NAWEA Activities

1.  Working to expand the breadth and competence of the wind energy academic and national laboratory communities to ensure the continued advancement of wind energy.

2.  Fostering research and development collaborations that bring together the necessary disciplines, agencies, and stakeholders to address topics critical to the advancement of wind energy.

3.  Developing unbiased, accurate, and relevant scientific information on wind power’s benefits and impacts and actively communicate that information to decision makers and the general public though a variety of means such as workshops, symposia, and publications.

4.  Promoting programs and activities that: –  continue the responsible advancement of wind technology; –  accelerate the development of world-class manufacturing capability and jobs creation; –  enhance appropriate widespread deployment; and –  facilitate the full realization of the energy, environmental, and economic benefits

offered by wind power in North America. 5.  Conducting any and all other lawful activities consistent with accomplishing the

foregoing purpose.

NAWEA The NAWEA Organization

NAWEA NAWEA Charter & By-Laws http://www.nawea.org/charter/

Name Organization Doug Cairns, Charter Committee Chair Montana State University Patrick Butler University of Iowa Ed DeMeo Renewable Energy Consulting Services, Inc. Michael Knotek Renewable and Sustainable Energy Institute James Manwell University of Massachusetts Amherst Pat Moriarty National Renewable Energy Laboratory Will Shaw Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Diane Stults Renewable and Sustainable Energy Institute Andy Swift Texas Tech University Bob Thresher, NAWEA Director (Interim) National Renewable Energy Laboratory Case van Dam University of California Davis Paul Veers National Renewable Energy Laboratory Additional Contributors: • Tom Acker, Northern Arizona University (UNC) • Stephan Barth, ForWind, University of Oldenburg, Germany (acted as a representative of the European Academy of Wind Energy (EAWE)) • Kevin Doran, RASEI • Rupp Carriveau , University of Windsor, Canada • Yves Gagnon, Université de Moncton, Canada • Sue Haupt, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) • Hogan Lovells served as pro bono legal counsel to assist the charter committee

in drafting the by-laws framework on a pro-bono basis. Attorneys included: Dennis Arfmann (Denver), Brandon Wilson (WDC), Christian Ulrich (WDC)

• William Mahoney, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) • Mike Robinson, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) • J. Charles (Charlie) Smith, Utility Wind Integration Group (UVIG)

The Charter and By-Laws Drafting Committee 2012

NAWEA Current NWEA Activities •  The Curriculum Committee:

–  Developing a “Graduate Certificate Program in Wind Energy” –  Report: Plotting the Couse for Education Program through NAWEA –  Operating under the auspices of the Southwest Renewable Energy Institute a

501 c3 for proposal writing

–  Education Committee Meeting Tuesday, 5 pm in 115 Goodwin Hall •  NAWEA 2015 Symposium hosted and organized by Virginia Tech

Organizing Committee with support of the NAWEA Symposium Executive with DOE Wind Program Sponsorship

•  Graduate Student Symposium, Monday 1:30 -5:00 pm in Goodwin Hall, Organized by Matthew Lackner, University of Massachusetts, Amherst

•  NAWEA Sponsored Training Sessions, Monday –  FAST Training Session –  WISDEM Training Session –  SOWFA Training Session

NAWEA NAWEA Board Meeting •  Organizers and supporters are invited to the NAWEA

Board Meeting, 115 Goodwin Hall, Wednesday at 7 pm

•  The Agenda for the Board Meeting: 1.  Planning the next Symposium in 2017, host, venue and format? 2.  Should NAWEA organize under the auspices of the Southwestern

Renewable Energy Institute, a (501 c3)? 3.  The Education Committee Report 4.  Discussion about the Wind Vision Actions and how the Research

Committee could contribute 5.  How to fill the NAWEA Director Position going forward? 6.  Other Business from attendees

•  Have a great 2015 Symposium!