welshge2015 survey: post-election insights from singaporeans · about the welsh ge2015 survey this...

WelshGE2015 Survey: Post-Election Insights on Voting in SingaporeBRIDGET WELSHPROFESSOR, IPEK UNIVERS ITY/ SENIOR RESEARCH ASSOCIATE, CENTER FOR EAST AS IA DEMOCRATIC STUDIES , NATIONAL TAIWAN UNIVERS ITY/SENIOR ASSOCIATEFELLOW, THE HABIB IE CENTER/ UNIVERS ITY FELLOW, CHARLES DARWIN UNIVERSITY

About the Welsh GE2015 SurveyThis survey is an independent assessment of factors explaining voting behavior in Singapore’s GE2015.

The purpose of the Welsh GE2015 Survey is to contribute to understanding and knowledge, to complement and expand the existing research on the political views of the Singaporean public.

Welsh GE2015 was privately funded by a Singaporean citizen and implemented by a research firm based in Singapore.

The survey questions and analysis were developed by Professor Bridget Welsh, with technical assistance provided by the Merdeka Center. Questions regarding the survey can be directed to [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Sampling of the Welsh GE2015 Survey The survey was conducted by telephone.

A total sample size of 800 were interviewed, with the results weighted in line with the Singapore Department of Statistics 2010 Census of Population updated annually for gender, ethnicity and age distribution.

The sample size is a nationally representative sample with a margin of error of +/- 3.46%.

The survey had a refusal rate of 18%, indicating reluctance to participate in survey research on political issues.

Source(s) of Information: Findings

GE2015 was not an Internet/Social Media Election

Mainstream media remains the dominant source of information for political affairs, especially television.

Social media and chat groups were less influential as a source of information, although chat groups were more important than in GE2011.

Chat groups, such as WhatsApp, were the least impactful as a news source.

30%

44%

14%

7%

2% 1%

41%

12%

20% 19%

6%

1% 1% 1%

71%

57%

34%

26%

8%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

TV Channel Newspaper Internet Social media Radio Chat group Not followingnews

Others

First

Second

Total

Q: Please tell me TWO sources/channels you consider to be your main source of information about domestic political and current affairs?

Main sources of information about domestic political and current affairsSource(s) of Information

Mainstream media dominates information flow

Q: On a scale of 1-5 with 5 as the highest, how influenced were you by the following sources in the 2015 General Election?

Prioritization of Sources of Information Unsure/Refuse1 - Lowest 2 5 - Highest3 4

38%

21%

11%

13%

11%

9%

11%

13%

14%

18%

25%

33%

5%

16%

26%

21%

3%

11%

22%

14%

28%

25%

5%

6%

WhatsAppGroup

Facebook

TV Channel

Newspaper

Mainstream media most important information source in GE2015

Views of Current Political Conditions. A large majority perceive the country moving

in the right direction, with nearly a third of Singaporeans strongly holding this view.

There are only modest demographic differences in public perceptions of the direction of the country.

For those Singaporeans perceiving the country moving in the right direction, stability, government performance and economic development are the main reasons provided.

For those Singaporeans perceiving the country moving in the wrong direction, immigration and cost of living issues were the most important, followed by concerns with government performance.

30%

49%

9%

2%

10%

Direction of the Country

Ethnicity / Gender Age Group

Household income ($) Education Level

89

73 75 79 83

619 13

8 8

0

20

40

60

80

100

21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 > 60

78 81 81 79 79

11 10 15 13 10

0

20

40

60

80

100

Chinese Malay Indian&Others

Male Female

77 76 81 86

13 13 13 11

0

20

40

60

80

100

< $2,500 $2,501 –$5,000

$5,001 -$7,500

> $7,501

74 78 7785

6 1118

8

0

20

40

60

80

100

No formal/ Primary

Lower/ Secondary

Diploma & equivalent

Deg. & above

Q: Considering the conditions in the country today, how strongly would you say that things are heading in the right or wrong direction?

Right Wrong Right Wrong

Right WrongRight Wrong

Strongly right

Somewhat wrong

Unsure

Somewhat right

Strongly wrong

Refuse

Very positive views on the direction of Singapore

Direction of the Country

79%RIGHT DIRECTION (n=633)

11%WRONG DIRECTION (n=90)

24.60%

11.60%

9.00%

4.10%

3.80%

3.50%

3.10%

16.70%

21.30%

1.40%

Stability

Good Government Performance

Favourable EconomicDevelopment

Government Doing Best

Educational Opportunities andPolicies

Leadership Quality andEngagement

Social Welfare Benefits

Others

Unsure

Refuse

25.60%

14.30%

10.00%

9.90%

4.40%

3.90%

3.00%

2.20%

10.00%

1.00%

16.40%

Negative Impact Foreign Influx

High Cost of Living/Inflation

Poor Government Performance

Inadequate Political Change

Housing Prices and High FeesEducation and Healthcare

Poor Policies

Social Differences and Problems

Governance/Lack of Transparency

Others

Refuse

Unsure

Q: And what would you say is the issue that is the main reason for you answering right/wrong direction?

Stability and Economy versus Foreigners/Jobs and Cost of Living

28%

54%

11%

3%4%

Satisfaction with the Government Ethnicity / Gender Age Group


87

7382 84

89

1124

12 116

0

20

40

60

80

100

21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 > 60

83 8478 80

85

12 1220 16

10

0

20

40

60

80

100


Male Female

83 83 7987

14 1419

11

0

20

40

60

80

100

< $2,500 $2,501 –$5,000

$5,001 -$7,500

> $7,501

85 8675

84

9 1022

12

0

20

40

60

80

100

No formal/ Primary

Lower/ Secondary


Deg. & above

Q: How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with how the government is performing these days?

Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied

Satisfied DissatisfiedSatisfied Dissatisfied

Strongly satisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied

Unsure/ Refuse

Somewhat satisfied

Strongly dissatisfied

High satisfaction reported

Satisfaction with the Government82%

SATISFIED (n=661)13%

DISSATISFIED (n=106)

12%

10%

7%

4%

3%

3%

13%

Singapore is doingwell/Stability

Peaceful conditions


“Effective Administration

Favorable EconomicConditions

Good policies

Unsure/ Don't know

20%

17%

7%

5%

5%

3%

9%

High cost of living/inflation

Influx of Foreigners

Lack of transparency

CPF issues/Wages issues

Inadequate Welfare for thePeople

Inefficiency of transportation(poor services)

Unsure/ Refuse

Q: What would you say is the issue that is the main reason for your answer? (satisfied with performance)

Participation in GE2015Nearly two-thirds of Singaporeans followed the GE2015 campaign, challenging the myth that Singaporeans are politically apathetic. Interest is high among younger Singaporeans.

Voting remains the main form of political participation, with only small shares of Singaporeans attending rallies or engaging in campaigning.

64%

34%

2%

Follow the Election Campaign



67 65 63 62 61

33 35 35 36 34

0

20

40

60

80

21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 > 60

64 6758

6661

34 3339

32 37

0

20

40

60

80


Male Female

62 66 6572

35 33 3327

0

20

40

60

80

< $2,500 $2,501 –$5,000

$5,001 -$7,500

> $7,501

69

5865 68

27

4033 30

0

20

40

60

80

No formal/ Primary

Lower/ Secondary


Deg. & above

Q: Did you follow the 2015 Singapore General Election campaign?

Yes No

Yes

No

Unsure/Refused

Yes No

Yes NoYes No

High engagement with campaign, with modest variation

74%

15%

4% 3% 4%1%

63%

8%

16%

7% 5%2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Vote Attend Political Rally Participate in a chatgroup

Persuade someone tovote

Post blog/ on Facebook Campaign worker

First Second

Q: Which of the following did you participate in during the GE campaign?

Forms of Participation in GE2015 Campaign

Political participation in campaigning low, with rally attendance and chatting among highest forms outside of voting.

Views of Leadership: Findings

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, Emeritus Senior Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam from the PAP have the most favorable public assessments among the politicians surveyed.

Around a quarter of Singaporeans are not familiar with many leading Singaporean politicians.

Opposition politicians, in particular Chee Soon Juan and Tan Jee Say, have the highest unfavorability ratings by the public, although their favorability assessments are higher than their negative views indicating polarization of views of these leaders in the public.

Most Singaporeans are unsure who will be the future prime minister of Singapore after Lee Hsien Loong. Those that do answer primarily indicate Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam.

2% 4% 3% 5% 2% 1% 2%10% 7% 5% 9%6%

13%9%

11%10%

4%10%

19%21%

17%

20%

1%

22%23%

22%

2%13%

28%

27%34%

27%

35%

7%

12%12% 9%

8%9%

12%

12%

13%

12%

13%

32%

38%41% 39%

47%34%

36%

25%

24%

32%

19%

52%

11% 11% 14%

30%39%

11% 7%2%

7% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Lee Hsien Loong Low Thia Khiang Yaacob Ibrahim VivanBalakrishnan

Goh Chok Tong TharmanShanmugaratnam

Tan Chuan-Jin Chee Soon Juan Lina Chiam Sylvia Lim Tan Jee Say

Very favourable Somewhat favourable Somewhat unfavourable Unsure/RefuseVery unfavourable Do not know this party

Perception towards Leadership

Q: Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following leaders?

19%

4%3% 3% 3%

1%4%

64%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

TharmanShanmugaratnam

Chan Chun Sing Teo Chee Hean Tan Chuan Jin Heng Swee Keat Yaacob Ibrahim Others Unsure/ Refuse

Q: Who do you think will be the next prime minister after Lee Hsien Loong?

Future Prime Minister

Uncertainty over future political leadershipNearly a fifth of Singaporeans select Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam

Views of Political Parties Among political parties, PAP has the most favorability among Singaporeans, with limited unfavorability.

WP is the most popular opposition party with high levels of favorability, especially when compared to other opposition parties.

All of the opposition parties except WP have higher unfavorable than favorable assessments among Singaporeans. Reform Party, National Solidarity Party and Singaporean Democratic Alliance has the most unfavorable assessments. The favorable views of non-WP opposition parties are less than a quarter of Singaporeans, with the Singapore Democratic Party recording the most favorability after WP.

A large majority of Singaporeans perceive the PAP as engaging in party renewal.

Singaporeans are split on their views of the opposition’s performance in parliament, but a majority of Singaporeans want a stronger opposition.

3% 7%16%

21%27%

18% 22% 23% 21%

5%

18%

32%

33%31%

32%33% 30%

28%

1%

5%

14%

19%18%

15%

20% 21%24%

6%

11%

15%

19%17%

18%

17% 16% 18%

42%

48%

20%

8% 7%

14%

9% 8% 7%

43%

11%4% 2% 2% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

PAP Workers' Party SingaporeDemocractic

Party

SingaporeDemocractic

Alliance

Reform Party SingaporePeople's Party

NationalSolidarity Party

SingaporeansFirst

People's PowerParty

Q: Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following political parties?

Very favourable Somewhat favourable Somewhat unfavourable Unsure/RefuseVery unfavourable Do not know this party

Perception towards Political Parties

27%

50%

11%

3%9%

Perceptions towards PAP



8169

79 7483

14 2412 11 8

0

20

40

60

80

100

21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 > 60

77 78 74 7381

14

1018 20

8

0

20

40

60

80

100


Male Female

77 8074

80

14 1420

140

20

40

60

80

100

< $2,500 $2,501 –$5,000

$5,001 -$7,500

> $7,501

7483

71 75

8 1119 16

0

20

40

60

80

100

No formal/ Primary

Lower/ Secondary


Deg. & above

Q: Do you think PAP renewal (re-generating) as a party is progressing well?

Agree Disagree Agree Disagree

Agree DisagreeAgree Disagree

Strongly agree

Somewhat disagree

No response

Somewhat agree

Strongly disagree

Don’t know

Party renewal perceived by a majority of the public.

7%

36%

22%

19%

17%

Effectiveness of Opposition In Parliament



41

52 4939

31

54

38 3339 40

0

20

40

60

80

21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 > 60

4149 50

32

45 4142 38 34 3642

38

0

20

40

60

80

Chinese Malay Indian Others Male Female

47 5044 44

35 36

48 48

0

20

40

60

80

< $2,500 $2,501 –$5,000

$5,001 -$7,500

> $7,501

4045 45

40

2435

47 48

0

20

40

60

80

No formal/ Primary

Lower/ Secondary


Deg. & above

Q: How effective was the opposition in parliament before the election campaign?

Effective Not effective Effective Not effective

Effective Not effectiveEffective Not effective

Very effective

Somewhat not effective

Unsure/ Refuse

Somewhat effective

Not effective at all

Split views of opposition performance, with interesting demographic differences

39%

19%

18%

11%

14%

Perspectives on Strength of Opposition



77

64 61

4840

2028 28

34 31

0

20

40

60

80

21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 > 60

56

71

56 59 6254

2917

3527 29 28

0

20

40

60

80


5565 62 66

3124

31 31

0

20

40

60

80

< $2,500 $2,501 –$5,000

$5,001 -$7,500

> $7,501

34

53

64 67

29 32 28 24

0

20

40

60

80

No formal/ Primary

Lower/ Secondary


Deg. & above

Q: In the recent election campaign, did you think that Singapore needed a stronger opposition or was strong enough?

Strong Adequately

Strong agreement with stronger opposition

Somewhat agreement with stronger opposition

Strong agreement with adequate opposition

Unsure/Refused

Somewhat agreement with adequate opposition

Strong Adequately

Strong AdequatelyStrong Adequately

Nearly two-thirds stated they wanted a stronger opposition, with variations

Election Issues in GE2015Specific Issues were not as important as perceptions of the political party and candidate in GE2015.

Singaporeans identified a wide range of issues in GE2015, with social welfare and future benefits as well as cost of living/inflation and immigration as among the most prominent.

When given a list of issues to prioritize, cost of living and social welfare remained important, with immigration less so and housing more so.

The LKY factor and Town Council governance were not prioritized among Singaporeans.

Citizen-Identified Campaign Issues

9.0%

8.4%

6.0%

5.2%

5.0%

4.8%

4.3%

3.6%

3.5%

3.4%

3.1%

2.5%

2.1%

2.0%

1.7%

1.6%

1.1%

1.0%

0.9%

0.6%

0.3%

0.1%

1.2%

4.7%

19.7%

4.3%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Strength of Political Party

Candidate Qualities

Future Benefits

Cost of Living/ Inflation


Foreigner Influx

Stability

Improving Economic Conditions

Affordable Housing/ HDB Prices

Opposition Voice Parliament

Transportation Management

National Policies

Job Opportunities

Healthcare costs

Fulfillment of Promises

Education

Fairness for Singaporeans

CPF Issue

Transparency

Race/Ethnic Relations

Town Council Issue

Ministerial Salaries

None

Others

Unsure

Refuse to Ansure

Q: In the recent election campaign, was there a particular issue that was most important to you?

Nearly a third of Singaporeans could not identify an issue that was important to them, with around a fifth of Singaporeans pointing to non-specific issues such as political party strength and candidate qualities.

24%

18%

12%

8% 9% 9%7%

5%3% 2% 1%

3%

19% 20%

14%

10% 9% 9%6% 6%

3% 3%2%

43%

38%

26%

18% 18% 18%

13%11%

6% 5%3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Inflation & Costof living

Social Welfare AffordableHousing

EconomicGrowth

Immigration/Population

Policy

Political Stability RetirementSecurity

Appreciation forLee Kuan Yew

PoliticalFreedoms

Increases inGovernment

Benefits

Discrimination Unsure/Refuse

First Second Total

Perceptions of Election Issues

Q: I am going to read you a list of issues people were seen as important in the past election, which two were the most importantissues for you?

Voting in GE2015Singaporeans prioritized party leadership and candidates in GE2015, followed by the political party. These factors worked together to influence voters.

Issues were less important in shaping voting behavior in GE2015. Perceptions of government benefits were also an important factor.

In self-identified reasons for voting, candidate qualities and government performance emerged as important.

Only a small minority of voters changed their vote during the campaign period. Voters in Singapore had decided how to vote before the campaign started.

A majority of Singaporeans did not perceive the opposition as having effective grassroots. This extended to WP in the areas they contested, which has traditionally been seen to have local grassroots.

31%

17%

23%

11%10%

2% 1%

6%

26% 26%

12%

17% 17%

2% 2%

57%

43%

35%

28% 27%

4% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Party Leadership Candidate Party Issue GovernmentBenefits

Fear of votingagainst thegovernment

Other, pleasespecify

Unsure/Refuse

First Second TotalVoting Drivers

Q: In this general election, what would you say was your main consideration when voting?

Important synergies between leadership, candidates and partiesIssues less important in GE2015, with benefits emerging as important

8%

87%

5%

Impact of Campaign on Changing VotingEthnicity / Gender Age Group


10 7 11 6 4

90 9084 84 88

0

20

40

60

80

100

21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 > 60

716

5 8 7

8875

93 88 86

0

20

40

60

80

100


Male Female

7 8 10 8

87 86 86 90

0

20

40

60

80

100

< $2,500 $2,501 –$5,000

$5,001 -$7,500

> $7,501

6 7 10 8

87 86 87 89

0

20

40

60

80

100

No formal/ Primary

Lower/ Secondary


Deg. & above

Q: Did you change your intention to vote for the PAP/Opposition during the campaign?

Yes No

Yes

No

Unsure/Refused

Yes No

Yes NoYes No

Campaign little impact on voting

8%

18%

18%41%

15%

Views of the Opposition Grassroots



32 31 2718 19

60 59 60 6155

0

20

40

60

80

21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 > 60

22

3932

25 26

62

4954

6355

0

20

40

60

80


Male Female

30 29 25 23

5159

70 69

0

20

40

60

80

< $2,500 $2,501 –$5,000

$5,001 -$7,500

> $7,501

26 29 2919

39

5561

70

0

20

40

60

80

No formal/ Primary

Lower/ Secondary


Deg. & above

Q: How effective were the opposition grassroots in your area during the election campaign?

Effective Not effective

Very effective

Somewhat effective


Unsure/Refused

Effective Not effective

Effective Not effectiveEffective Not effective

Somewhat not effective

Perceived weak opposition grassroots, with only third favorable

Views of Opposition Grassroots of Specific Parties

14%

26%

20%

32%

7% 1% 6%

20%

17%47%

9% 2%

Very effective

Somewhat not effectiveSomewhat effective


Refuse

Q: How effective were the opposition grassroots in your area during the election campaign?

Singapore Democratic Party (SDP)1.

Workers’ Party (WP)2.

Effective, 40%

Unsure

Effective, 26%

In areas where specific opposition parties contested, there were different views of opposition grassroots effectiveness.

Institutional Impact on GE2015Nearly two-thirds of Singaporeans reported receiving government benefits in the year before the election. This finding has surprisingly few demographic differences.

People’s Associations were perceived as prominent in the GE2015 campaign, but there were greater demographic differences in perceptions.

People’s Associations were seen to boost the performance of the PAP in GE2015 by a majority with a third disagreeing.

A majority of Singaporeans did not report receiving benefits at the local level through the PAs, with nearly a fifth reporting they did receive local benefits.

64%

32%

4%

Received Government Pre-Election Funds



63 64 65 62 66

34 35 31 32 29

0

20

40

60

80

21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 > 60

64 64 62 66 62

32 33 34 31 33

0

20

40

60

80


Male Female

69 67 68 65

27 29 32 33

0

20

40

60

80

< $2,500 $2,501 –$5,000

$5,001 -$7,500

> $7,501

6168

62 62

30 2936 34

0

20

40

60

80

No formal/ Primary

Lower/ Secondary


Deg. & above

Q: Did you receive government funds in the year before the election, e.g. tax rebate, subsidy etc.?

Yes No

Yes

No

Unsure/Refused

Yes No

Yes NoYes No

Nearly two-thirds reported receiving government funds

20%

32%14%

17%

16%

People’s Association Organizations



58 5752 52

45

32 33 3628 24

0

20

40

60

80

21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 > 60

49

62 6457

52 53

3323

2919

3428

0

20

40

60

80


59 6252

47

2026

3646

0

20

40

60

80

< $2,500 $2,501 –$5,000

$5,001 -$7,500

> $7,501

55 57 5545

1124

30

46

0

20

40

60

80

No formal/ Primary

Lower/ Secondary


Deg. & above

Q: How prominent were the People's Association organizations such as Residential Committees in your area during the election campaign?

Prominent Not Prominent Prominent Not Prominent

Prominent Not ProminentProminent Not Prominent

Not prominent at all

Somewhat prominent

Somewhat prominent

Very prominent

Unsure/Refused

PAs were prominent in the GE2015 campaign, but views varied across Singaporeans.

56%32%

11%

Perception of PA impact on PAP



61 60 56 54 50

34 29 31 33 35

0

20

40

60

80

21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 > 60

56 54 5061 60

31 33 35 34 29

0

20

40

60

80


Male Female

62 5967

56

2635

2835

0

20

40

60

80

100

< $2,500 $2,501 –$5,000

$5,001 -$7,500

> $7,501

42

60 6054

3930 30 34

0

20

40

60

80

100

No formal/ Primary

Lower/ Secondary


Deg. & above

Q: Do you think that these organization's benefits influenced people to support the PAP?

Yes No

Yes

No

Unsure/Refused

Yes No

Yes NoYes No

Majority believe PA’s boost PAP, but a third think PAs are not important

18%

76%

6%

Local Benefits: People’s Associations/Grassroots Orgs.



14 18 15 20 21

80 79 7971 69

0

20

40

60

80

21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 > 60

1527

21 16 19

7868 72

77 74

0

20

40

60

80


Male Female

24 22 199

70 72 7686

0

20

40

60

80

100

< $2,500 $2,501 –$5,000

$5,001 -$7,500

> $7,501

23 23 1510

66 7079

85

0

20

40

60

80

100

No formal/ Primary

Lower/ Secondary


Deg. & above

Q: Did you receive any benefits from the People's Association or Grassroots Organisations (RCs etc) before the elections?

Yes No

Yes

No

Unsure/Refused

Yes No

Yes NoYes No

Low level of perceived PA benefits, but socio-economic variation in benefit received

Post-Election ReflectionsMost Singaporeans were either happy or relieved with the election results after GE2015, with a small minority regretful or angry.

A majority of Singaporeans do not believe the opposition is adequately strong post-election, with a third believing it is adequately strong.

A majority of Singaporeans expressed support for some form of electoral reform. The main reform areas involved the rights of new citizens and independence of the electoral commission. A fifth of Singaporeans believed there was no need for electoral reform.

41%

43%

11%

5%

Perceptions of Post-Election



7973

88 88 89

21 2712 12 110

20

40

60

80

100

21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 > 60

84 82 80 7889

16 18 20 22110

20

40

60

80

100

Chinese Malay Indian Male Female

87 8376 80

1317 24 20

0

20

40

60

80

100

< $2,500 $2,501 –$5,000

$5,001 -$7,500

> $7,501

90 8976 80

10 1124 20

0

20

40

60

80

100

No formal/ Primary

Lower/ Secondary


Deg. & above

Happy/Relief Regretful/Angry Happy/Relief Regretful/Angry

Happy/Relief Regretful/AngryHappy/Relief Regretful/Angry

Happy

AngryRelief

Regretful

Q: Which of the following emotions best describes your perception after the general elections?

High levels of happiness or relief after the elections.

11%

24%

34%

22%

10%

Post-Election Perspective of Strength Opposition



3038 35 36 34

6656 57

51 47

0

20

40

60

80

21-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 > 60

35 3531

4134 35

55 55 5752

5952

0

20

40

60

80


40 39 3629

4555

5971

0

20

40

60

80

< $2,500 $2,501 –$5,000

$5,001 -$7,500

> $7,501

36 39 3727

37

5058

66

0

20

40

60

80

No formal/ Primary

Lower/ Secondary


Deg. & above

Q: In light of the election results, do you think the political opposition is strong enough?

Agree Disagree Agree Disagree

Agree DisagreeAgree Disagree

Strongly agree

Somewhat disagree

Unsure/ Refuse

Somewhat agree

Strongly disagree

Majority believe opposition is not strong enough post-election, especially wealthier, more educated and youth

25% 26%

19%

8% 9%12%

30%

18%

13%

21%18%

55%

44%

32%29%

27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

New citizens onlyeligible to vote after five

years as a citizen orafter national service

An independentelectoral commission.

No need for anymodifications.

Removal restrictions onmedia

Measures to increasevoting secrecy during

polling

Unsure/Refuse

First

Second

Total

Perpectives on Electoral Reforms

Q: Which one the following do you think would be most important to ensure that elections in Singapore are more free and fair?Please give Top 2 reasons

Diverse views of electoral reform, but majority want changes.

13%

74%

13%

Ethnicity

ChineseMalay Indian & Others

51%49%

Gender

FemaleMale

88%

13%

Born in SingaporeNoYes

Respondent Profile 23%

15%

17%

7%

15%

21%

Senior/Managers/Professional

Associateprofessional/Clerical

Service/Operators/Relatedworker

Business/Self-emp

Homemaker

Other

Occupation

18%

24%

15%

23%

20%

< $2,500 permonth

$2,501 – $5,000 per month

$5,001 - $7,500per month

> $7,501 permonth

DK/NR

Monthly Household Income ($)

17%

23%

22%

19%

20%

21-29

30-39

40-49

50-59

> 60

Age Group

ConclusionsFindings of Welsh GE2015 Survey echo many of the findings of the Institute of Policy Studies post-election survey and pre-election Blackbox Quad Research, especially with regard to the importance of party leadership, candidates and the party in voting decision-making and with regards to the timing of decisions on voting.

The Welsh poll does deepen understanding of public views surrounding the election.

While Singaporeans want a stronger opposition, they are divided on the opposition’s performance in parliament and perceive weak opposition grassroots.

The role of government at the national and local level was important in shaping voting behavior through the perception of social welfare benefits and the role of government-linked local institutions.

Singaporeans are looking for reforms in the electoral process and a stronger opposition, suggesting that the political situation remains fluid in Singapore.

For Further ReadingFor more detail on the analysis of the poll, please see the following academic publications:

Bridget Welsh, “Political Identities, Engagement and Voting in Singapore’s 2015 Election,” in Terence Lee and Kevin YL Tan, Change in Voting: Singapore’s 2015 General Election. (Singapore, Ethos), pp. 191-219.

Bridget Welsh, “Clientelism and Control: PAP’s Fight for Safety in GE2015,” The Round Table, 2016, April, Forthcoming.

Future work will analyze the role of religious differences in voting.

welshge2015 survey: post-election insights from singaporeans · about the welsh ge2015 survey this...

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