Western Regional Breakout• Goal: Regional C budgets for natural and managed lands and anthropogenic emissions

– Forests dominant in north while agriculture and fossil fuel CO2 emissions dominant in South

• Hypotheses: – Forest source/sinks vary with disturbance a major factor– Pasture/range largely neutral but climate sensitive– Agricultural activities dominated by large carbon exports, uncertain C storage, non-CO2 gases

Current activities: • Bottom up:

– Evaluation of model uncertainty in forest carbon exchange

• NASA-CASA, BIOM-BGC, MC1, CLM-CN

– Summation of comparison of fossil fuel CO2 estimates (VULCAN, CARB, EIA)

– Evaluation of Forest Disturbance• TM-based through 1985-2007 (Bob Kennedy)• BIOMBGC - MTBS (USGS) -fire, cutting

– Inclusion of state inventories for non-CO2 gases

• Top-down:– Tower data limited before 2006: Trinidad, Scripps– ORCA (2006), CALGEM (2007)– non-CO2 synthesis project and state efforts

Future (unfunded) Topics• ffCO2 uncertainty: 14CO2 measurements • Evaluation of river discharge to costal zone (%?

NPP)• Pest specific disturbance studies (Pine beetle)• Prediction ? (thinning, fire frequency)• Agriculture diagnosis

– Carbon export in crops, residue management– Non-CO2 gas focus (N2O: N-addition CH4:livestock)

• Suggestion: Leverage state-funded activities– California AB-32 mandated GHG reductions require

verification