western research application center (wesrac) innovation in the exponential economy bio/nano/ info...

Western Research Application Center (WESRAC)

Innovation in the Exponential Economy

Bio/Nano/ Info The Exponential Economy

Ken DozierExecutive Director, WESRAC

12/3/10


The Western Research Application Center


Schismogenesis


Jack Welch, Former Chairmen General Electric

The Future

“When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight”


Controls $90 Billion Cash


6-D Global Commerce

Demassification

Denationalization

Despacialization

Disintermediation

Disaggregation

Decentralization

Source: The Social Life of information, Brown & Duguild


Source: The world Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International

3. Finland

4. Luxembourg

5. Netherlands

6. Hong Kong

7. Ireland

8. Sweden

9. Canada

10.Switzerland

Global Competition1.

2.


Industry Clusters

– “Industry Cluster”: collections of competing and collaborating industries in a region networked into horizontal and vertical relationships, involving strong common buyer-supplier linkages, and relying on a shared foundation of specialized economic institutions. Because they are built around export-oriented firms, industry clusters bring new wealth into a region an help drive the regions economic growth.

Industry Cluster Electronic

Key Export Oriented Firms

Key Supplier Oriented Firms

Key Economic Infrastructure Providers

Consumer Electronic Assembly

Computer Hardware Assembly

Tool, Die & Machinery

Office & Production Supply

Specialized Component Supply

Education & Training Institutions

Physical Infrastructure Providers

Financial and Regulatory Institutions

(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)


Where are the Brains?




Industry Clusters


1940

-196

5

1965

-199

0

1990

-201

5Motion Pictures

AviationElectronics

Defense Aviation

AutomobileManufacturing

FoodProcessing

Agriculture

Theme Parks

Motion Pictures

Television

ComputerPeripherals

Defense Instruments

Commercial Aviation

MetalProducts

GeneralManufacturing

InformationProcessing

DefenseAerospace

Theme Parks/Tourism

Visual Media Production

Professional Services

Multimedia Technology

Engineering Services

Technology-Based

Manufacturing

General Manufacturing

Information Processing

Business Services

The Evolution of Industry(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)


Info-Tech

Nano-Tech

Bio-Tech

Technologies Change Fast

Source: SRI International 2002


We Think We Are This


Economic Theory Assumes

• The Economic Man is:– Rational– Knowledge of All Economic Aspects of His

Environment– While His Knowledge is Not Absolute, it is

Impressively Clear and Absolute– Has a Well Organized and Stable Set of – Has the Skills to Calculate Which Course of

Action Permits Him to Reach The Highest Attainable Point on His Preferential Scale


We Are This

Richard Thaler Nudge: Improving Decisions About

Health, Wealth, and Happiness 2008


Truth Knowledge Belief

Universal

No Debate

Phenomena

Social

Converge on debate

Theory

Personal

Diverge on debate

Guess (Hypothesis)

Source: “Ten Philosophical Mistakes”, Mortimer J. Adler 1985

What is Knowledge ?

Observation Explicit Tacit


The Internet Changes Everything (ICE)

Exponential Economy

Copyright SRI International 2002


Exponential Growth

• How thick do you think a paper folded in-half 42 times would be?

• How thick would it be after 100 folds?

Source: “Long Range Forecasting” Armstrong 1985


Exponential Growth

The Answers

• 42 folds = 440,000 Km (the distance from the earth to the moon.)

• 100 folds = 850 trillion times the distance from the earth to the sun!

Source: “Long Range Forecasting” Armstrong 1985


The Singularity is Nearer Than We Might Think

Posted by John Moravec on Wednesday, March 18th 2009 http://www.educationfutures.com


California Council on Science and Technology 2004


Next Generation Biology

• Simulating 100 microseconds of protein folding could take 1025 machine instructions

• This computation would take three years on a PetaFlop computer.– "Jaguar" is one of only two known computers on Earth

with peak performance exceeding a million billion (10^15) operations per second. The other one, IBM's

"Roadrunner" system at Los Alamos National Lab

• Keep a 3.2GHz microprocessor busy for the next million centuries.

Source: Communications of the ACM. Volume 47, Number 11 (2004), Pages 34-41


Cloud Computing Utility

http://compete.org/HPC


Adapted from OSC GraphicsCouncil and USC ISI Proprietary

Knowing Verses Doing Gap

20

Nu

mb

er

of

Us

ers

Nu

mb

er

of

Ap

plic

atio

ns

1 4 64

National ProductivityOpportunity

Entry Level

HPCUsers Experienced

HPC “Heroes”

Nodes 1,000 10,000+

Moving Users ForwardMoving Users Forward

World Class Computing

GovernmentLaboratories &University HPC

Centers

Experienced Industry Users

Filling the Expertise Gap Filling the Expertise Gap

Never

Ever

Users

Mid-Range Users


• Pre, Post Processor & Solver

• Hardware:

• 1 Core

• 3 GB Memory

• Software:

• Windows XP

• MSC.SimOffice

• Mathematica

• Solver

• Hardware:

• 8 Cores

• 48GB Memory

• Software:

• Linux

• 10 times faster Solving than PC

• Potential gateway to the HPC Cloud

• Solver

• Hardware:

• 100 – 10000 Cores

• ~ TBs Memory

• Software:

• Linux

• 40 times faster Solving than PC

1 Gbps

1, 12, 40 Gbps

Desktop PC Entrance-Level HPC HPC Cloud (Remote)


Chart Source: Corporate Information Systems, Applegate

Complex Adaptive Systems


Incubators and Science Parks created to bridge gap between development and commercialization

Chart Source: Corporate Information Systems, Applegate

SBIR Government (pull)Venture: Niche markets,

public trading (pull)

Universities: Curiosity Based, emerging, (push)

Large Companies hierarchy, products based, (push)

Make & Sell vs. Sense & Respond

B01-013


Problem: Time

Source: Gus Koehler, University of Southern California Department of Policy and Planning, 2002


Problem: Layers of Communication



Problem : Government Dynamics



How’s That Intuition Thing Working For You?



Hope: Statistical Physics

• Proven formalism for “seeing the forest past the trees”– Well established in physical and chemical sciences– Our recent verification with data in economic realm

• Simple procedure for focusing on macro-parameters– Most likely distributions obtained by maximizing the

number of micro-states corresponding to a measurable macro-state

– Straightforward extension from original focus on energy to economic quantities

• Unit cost of production• Productivity• R&D costs

– Self-consistency check provided by distribution functions


More Hope: Plasma Theories

• Advanced plasma theories are extremely important when one tries to explain the various waves and instabilities found in the plasma environment. Since plasma consist of a very large number of interacting particles, in order to provide a macroscopic description of plasma phenomena it is appropriate to adopt a statistical approach. This leads to a great reduction in the amount of information to be handled. In the kinetic theory it is necessary to know only the distribution function for the system of particles.

Source: University of Oulu, FInland


The Missing Link

Seven Organizational Change Propositions Framework, “Framing the Domains of IT Management” Zmud 2002

Business Process Improvement

Business Process Redesign

Business Model Refinement

Business Model Redefinition

Supply-chain Discovery

Supply-chain Expansion

Market Redefinition

High β

Low β


Bio – DavidSemiotics Syntactics: Plasma Physics

* Stamper, Information, Norms and Systems (1996)


Cu

mu

lati

ve N

um

ber

of

Co

mp

anie

s

U.S. Economic Census verses Dozier/Chang Model

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Actual Data – Dark Blue Diamonds

Dozier/Chang Model – Square (Purple) Points

Shipments per Company in $M


Why Do We Tolerate This Much Waste?

4 Tier Supply Chain

Wilensky, U. (1999). NetLogo. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling. Northwestern University, Evanston, IL

Beer Game Demo Densmore, O. June 2004


When We Could Pay Off the National Debt


Emplyee Effectiveness

• Bureaucracies 0.25% - 1.0%

• Large Utilities 0.25% - 1.0%

• Large Corporations ( 10 k or more employees) 0.50% - 2.5%

• Medium Utilities 0.25% - 1.5%

• Medium Corporations (2k or more employees) 1.00% - 3.5%

• Small Companies (100 or more employees) 1.00% - 5.0%

• Tiny Companies (5 or more employees) 1.50% - 8.0%

American Institute of Business Consultants, J.R. Blake


Assessing Your Technology

Ind

ust

ry A

do

ptio

n o

f Te

chn

olo

gy

Executive’s Approach to Technology

CEO Not Involved CEO Involved

Bef

ore

Tec

hn

olo

gy

(No

n-C

ust

om

er F

aci

ng

)A

fter

-Te

chn

olo

gy

(Cu

sto

me

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acin

g)

CIO Magazine June 2002


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