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W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project: A Database Model for Regional Landscape Assessment, Resource Planning, and Vulnerability Analysis

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Page 1: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne,

D. Semmens, and K. Gergely

US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session

31 March 2004

The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project:

A Database Model for Regional Landscape Assessment, Resource Planning, and Vulnerability Analysis

Page 2: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

Southwest Regional GAP Project

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah

US-IALE 2004, Las Vegas, Nevada: Transdisciplinary Challenges in Landscape Ecology

Page 3: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis
Page 4: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

BLM Ownership

Page 5: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis
Page 6: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

Vegetation Treatments EIS

Page 7: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

National Forest System Lands

• Regions

• Stations

• National

•District/Forest

Page 8: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

Gap Land Cover use in Fire Management

Page 9: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

Fire Regime

1 - 0-35 year frequency and low to mixed severity

2 - 0-35 year frequency and high severity

3 - 35-100 + year frequency and mixed severity4 - 35-100 + year frequency and high severity

5 - 200 + year frequency and high severity

Non Fuels

BLM Field Office Boundary

Page 10: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis
Page 11: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis
Page 12: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

The National Park Service Inventory and Monitoring Program

Page 13: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

Alternative Futures

• Planning for the future is a complicated and uncertain process.

• Futures assessment requires input from stakeholders knowledgeable about policies in a region.

• Possible to investigate several “futures” or points of view at one time.

Page 14: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis
Page 15: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

Regional Conservation Scenarios Regional Conservation Scenarios Utah High Plateaus Utah High Plateaus

Page 16: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

USE MULTIPLE ASSUMPTIONS for 1) ECOLOGICAL REPRESENATATION and2) SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRADEOFF

TO GENERATE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS

Page 17: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

Ecoregion and watersheds

Grid of 750 he spatial analysis

units

Rare Species Occurrence

Derived from Gap Land

Cover

Freshwater Ecosystems

(headwater reaches)

Migratory Species Habitat Value

Land Use Compatibility

Spatial Spatial Optimization Optimization

AlgorithmAlgorithm

Expert Review

and Refinemen

t

Spatial Optimization

Meeting Multi-Criteria Objectives

Page 18: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

Principle Effects of Land Cover on Watershed Response

Precipitation

Evapotranspiration

InfiltrationGroundwater

InterceptionRunoff VolumePeak FlowSediment YieldWater Quality

Land cover

Page 19: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

Watershed Discretization (model elements)

++

LandCover

Soil

Rain

Results

Run model and import results

Intersect model elements with

Digital Elevation

Model (DEM)

Sediment yield (t/ha)Sediment discharge (kg/s)

Water yield (mm)Channel Scour (mm)

Transmission loss (mm)Peak flow (m3/s or mm/hr)

Surface runoff (mm)Sediment yield (kg)

Percolation (mm)Runoff (mm or m3)

ET (mm)Plane Infiltration (mm)

Precipitation (mm)Channel Infiltration (m3/km)

SWAT OutputsKINEROS Outputs

AGWA Inputs and Outputs

Page 20: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

AGWA Inputs

Land Cover Soils DEM - Elevation

Page 21: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

AGWA-SWAT Water Yield

(millimeters)

Page 22: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

AGWA-SWAT Sediment Yield

(tons/hectare)

Page 23: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

Future?

Other Regional GAP projects?

Page 24: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis
Page 25: W.G. Kepner, P. Comer, D. Osborne, D. Semmens, and K. Gergely US-IALE 2004, SW ReGAP Special Session 31 March 2004 The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis

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