what a difference a year makes · what a difference a year makes. dr. robert n. castellano 2013...
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Dr. Robert N. Castellano 2013 CMPUG
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Dr. Robert N. CastellanoPresident
The Information Network8740 Lyon Valley RoadNew Tripoli, PA 18066
610-737-7596www.theinformationnet.com
What a Difference a Year MakesWhat a Difference a Year Makes
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 2013 CMPUG
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The Information Network The Information Network –– What What We DoWe Do
• Off-The Shelf Technical-Marketing Reports on High-Tech Sectors including HDDs, CMP, Semiconductors, Alternative Energy, LEDs, LCDs, MEMs, Processing Equipment, Processing Materials
• Custom Studies in the above areas• Proprietary Leading Indicators correlating
macroeconomic trends with projections of semiconductor and semiconductor equipment growth
• Formed in 1985• First report on the market analysis of CMP in the
90s
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 2013 CMPUG
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Monumental Changes Are Taking Place In Monumental Changes Are Taking Place In The Competitive Storage IndustryThe Competitive Storage Industry
• SSDs continue to gain market share versus HDDs
• Solid State Hybrid Drive (SSHD) Technology gained momentum in 2012
• Transition from planar NAND to 3D NAND • Cold storage could represent considerable
upside to NAND longer-term
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 2013 CMPUG
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Monumental Changes Are Taking Place In Monumental Changes Are Taking Place In The Competitive Storage IndustryThe Competitive Storage Industry
• SSDs continue to gain market share versus HDDs
• Solid State Hybrid Drive (SSHD) Technology gained momentum in 2012
• Transition from planar NAND to 3D NAND • Cold storage could represent considerable
upside to NAND longer-term
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 2013 CMPUG
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HDD Shipments Have Been Less Than HDD Shipments Have Been Less Than MonumentalMonumental
-30.4%0.781.161.772.233.33$/GB Shipped
21.8%2221.518.512.110Revenue ($ billions)
28.8%550550330280200Areal Density (Gb/in²)
74.8%28000186001046454303000PentaBytes Shipped (PB)
74.8%140009326523227151500Units ((2GBs millions)
NAND
-22.1%0.10.10.10.170.272$/GB Shipped
2.5%37.533.5333434Revenue ($ billions)
18.5%750750635530380Areal Density (Gb/in²)
32.0%380000335000330000200000125000PentaBytes Shipped (PB)
1.7%577620652557540Units (HDDs millions)
HDD
CAGR20122011201020092008
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While Revenue Growth Has While Revenue Growth Has Slowed for Both HDD and SSDSlowed for Both HDD and SSD
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Rev
enue
($ B
illio
ns)
HDD NAND
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The Decrease in Memory Cost The Decrease in Memory Cost For HDDs Has SlowedFor HDDs Has Slowed
Source: Hitachi0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mem
ory
Cos
t ($/
GB
Shi
pped
)
HDD NAND
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Dropping Prices Have Helped Dropping Prices Have Helped Push the SSD MarketPush the SSD Market
Source: SanDisk
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Monumental Changes Are Taking Place In Monumental Changes Are Taking Place In The Competitive Storage IndustryThe Competitive Storage Industry
• SSDs continue to gain market share versus HDDs
• Solid State Hybrid Drive (SSHD) Technology gained momentum in 2012
• Transition from planar NAND to 3D NAND • Cold storage could represent considerable
upside to NAND longer-term
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Last YearLast Year’’s Slide Illustrating the Death s Slide Illustrating the Death of the HDDof the HDD
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But Hybrid Drives Will Help The But Hybrid Drives Will Help The HDD Industry for Portable PCsHDD Industry for Portable PCs
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As Conventional HDDs Markets As Conventional HDDs Markets ErodeErode
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Helped by InnovationHelped by Innovation
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Monumental Changes Are Taking Place In Monumental Changes Are Taking Place In The Competitive Storage IndustryThe Competitive Storage Industry
• SSDs continue to gain market share versus HDDs
• Solid State Hybrid Drive (SSHD) Technology gained momentum in 2012
• Transition from planar NAND to 3D NAND• Cold storage could represent considerable
upside to NAND longer-term
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 2013 CMPUG
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3D NAND Reduces Costs and 3D NAND Reduces Costs and Increases Cell ReliabilityIncreases Cell Reliability
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3D3D--NAND Could Increase the NAND Could Increase the Market for SSDs Market for SSDs
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But HDD is Rising to the But HDD is Rising to the ChallengeChallenge
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Monumental Changes Are Taking Place In Monumental Changes Are Taking Place In The Competitive Storage IndustryThe Competitive Storage Industry
• SSDs continue to gain market share versus HDDs
• Solid State Hybrid Drive (SSHD) Technology gained momentum in 2012
• Transition from planar NAND to 3D NAND • Cold storage could represent considerable
upside to NAND longer-term
Dr. Robert N. Castellano 2013 CMPUG
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Not Only Do We See Hybrids at Not Only Do We See Hybrids at the Enterprisethe Enterprise
Sandisk
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But Now All SSD With Cold But Now All SSD With Cold FlashFlash
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Counter Intuitive ThinkingCounter Intuitive Thinking
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Facebook Has Gone From All HDDs Facebook Has Gone From All HDDs in 2010 to All Flash in 2012in 2010 to All Flash in 2012
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Last YearLast Year’’s Talk Had the Cloud Saving s Talk Had the Cloud Saving the Daythe Day
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But SSD Is Also Moving to the CloudBut SSD Is Also Moving to the Cloud
CloudSpeedSolidFire Intel
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What Do the Customers Think?What Do the Customers Think?
What The Client Wanted How The Engineer Designed It
What The Client Received What The Client Really Needed
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Concept of Cost Changed Concept of Cost Changed Dramatically From 2012 to 2013Dramatically From 2012 to 2013
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Again, CostAgain, Cost
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SSDs a Small Percentage in 2012, SSDs a Small Percentage in 2012, Not So in 2013, And GrowingNot So in 2013, And Growing
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Cost and Performance Too IssuesCost and Performance Too Issues
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Reliability of SSDs is HighReliability of SSDs is High
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Maybe!Maybe!
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With CMP, Slurry Revenues Are With CMP, Slurry Revenues Are Small AnywaySmall Anyway
Source: The Information Network
Slurry Revenues 2012
1042.0
14.086.8
20.4 4.00.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
Slurry forSemiconductors
Slurry for SSD Slurry For Glass Slurry For Metal Slurry for Heads
Rev
enue
($M
)
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And There ArenAnd There Aren’’t Enough t Enough MegafabsMegafabsto Make All the NANDto Make All the NAND
$115B$864BCAPITAL
33247MEGAFABS
1,3049,907MSI
50,000380,000PentaBytes
NAND Replaces HDD
Enterprise
NAND Replaces All
HDD
Source: IBM
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Thank YouThank You
Source: The Information Network