William D’haeseleer

K.U.Leuven Energy Institute

What Energy Society do we What Energy Society do we Aim at by 2050? Aim at by 2050?

And how Getting Started?And how Getting Started?

How to get to 2050?How to get to 2050?

And the answer is…And the answer is…

• Solutions must rely on technologytechnology

• Clever combination of existing technologies

• New, perhaps revolutionary technologies

Ample Possibilities but often ExpensiveAmple Possibilities but often Expensive

Ref: IEA ETP 2008

All Means Will be NecessaryAll Means Will be Necessary

Ref: IEA ETP 2010

All Sectors Must ParticipateAll Sectors Must Participate

Ref: IEA ETP 2010

All Regions Must ParticipateAll Regions Must Participate

Ref: IEA ETP 2010

Long Term Energy StudiesLong Term Energy Studies

• Simplistic approaches misleading and lead to loss of credibility

• Must think in terms of energy fluxes (“power flows”) not energy “packages”Get energy at right place at right time

• Storability of energy fundamentally important

• Must optimize full integrated system with full dynamic characteristics

Solutions ?Solutions ?

• Need paradigm shift for energy provision

• Completely different system by 2050-…:– Maybe H2 as partly energy carrier (?)

– Maybe 2-nd & 3-rd gen biofuels successful (?)

– Maybe new synthetic liquid fuels from CO2 capture by means of solar light (?)

– But likely much more electrified!much more electrified!

Need fertile ground for energy revolutionenergy revolution

EU Strategic Energy Technology plan– 2020 targets

How get to 2050?How get to 2050?

EU 20-20-20 targetsEU 20-20-20 targetsby 2020by 2020

Reduction of greenhouse gases

Energy consumption, Efficiency increase

Share of renewable energy

-20% -20%100%

+20%

8,5%

Need fertile ground for energy revolutionenergy revolution

EU Strategic Energy Technology plan– 2020 targets– 2050 vision based on R&D

R&D part to be done right!

How get to 2050?How get to 2050?

Importance of R & DImportance of R & D

Classical R & D ideas

-Wind

-PV solar

-CCS

-Nuclear Gen iv

-Smart grids

-…

versus

Near -Term Complications…Near -Term Complications…

• Shale gas seems way to go… but…

Near -Term Complications…Near -Term Complications…

• Battle for future grids… which grids???

Envisioned CO2 reductions possible if:

- all options are considered / ‘correct’ studies

- ambitious but doable transition paths to be designed

- drastic increase energy R&D efforts

Path is straightforward…in principlePath is straightforward…in principle

Actual roadmaps… subject of FORUM