What have been the impacts of recent volcanic eruptions in Montserrat?

David AlcockMay 2011

Why study Montserrat?

“[T]he epoch-making eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano in 1995… has affected almost every facet of life in this 39.5 square mile island. Agriculture, industry, land-form, land space and its use, demography, politics, culture and the totality of society have all undergone changes of revolutionary proportions” (Fergus, 2007: 9)

Why study Montserrat?

KS3 – Geog.1 GCSE – in all specifications A-level:

– Complex– Changing– Development – opportunity for discussion– Recent– Synopticity

Phases of volcanic activity

Phase 1: Summer 1995 to the start of 1998– Plymouth evacuated. Exclusion zone created.

19 killed Phase 2: December 1999 to Summer 2003 Phase 3: Summer 2003 to Spring 2007 Phase 4: Summer 2008 to 3 January 2009 Phase 5: 4 October 2009 to February 2010

– Largest pyroclastic flow yet– The next phase is more likely to be another short

duration but high intensity event (SAC, 2010)

Over a half of the island is currently off limits (Hazard Level is 3 out of 5)

Red= essential workers only; Green= unrestricted access

Get maps from www.mvo.ms

Social Impacts (1)

Exodus– 1995: 10,000 residents; 1999: 3,000; 2006: 5,000

Loss of economic potential; community split BUT… employment opportunities influx

Social Impacts (2)

Some health effects – e.g. silicosis; psychological

Since 19 people died in 1997, no further direct deaths. Low risk of death for most residents

BUT… mostly well controlled

Social Impacts (3)

Education – enrolment fell (1995: 2672; 1998: 620) and schools shut

BUT… new secondary school, new college, new approaches

Economic Impacts (1)

Agricultural land lost; farmers dispossessed Dependent on agricultural imports BUT… drive for self-sufficiency, and ash!

Economic Impacts (2)

Manufacturing industry lost BUT… opportunities in the primary sector

Sand mining and ash processing

Source: Author, 2010

Economic Impacts (3)

Service industry suffered BUT… new capital city, cultural centre

Economic Impacts (4)

Tourism shrank– airport and seaport lost– out-of-bounds areas– villa owners evacuated– negative travel advice given– ferry service was suspended in 2005 (numbers had risen

from 4,000 in 1997 to 15,000 in 2004, but then fell to 9,500 in 2005)

BUT… tourism consultancy brought in, new capital city, ferry service may return

A disaster – and an opportunity?

Source: Author, 2010

Tourism target markets

‘Destination enjoyment’ holidaymakers (especially villa owners and renters)

Markets inspired by the volcano (volcano tours and the education market)

The dive market The bird watching market The cruise market The yachting market The market for day visits, short breaks and events Sports tourism (football and cricket) The Montserrat diasporaSource: Team Tourism (2007)

Economic Impacts (5)

Energy – reliance on diesel Most renewable sources are unsuitable or

poorly funded BUT… geothermal opportunities at Delvins

(see map)

Proposed location of geothermal power plant is in Zone C (controlled access)

Red= essential workers only; Green= unrestricted access

Get maps from www.mvo.ms

Environmental Impacts (1)

Ash BUT… long-term benefits?

Environmental Impacts (2)

Rainforest – approximately a third was destroyed

Ash (again!) BUT…it’s natural!

Environmental Impacts (3)

Feral pigs, goats, cattle and donkeys are dramatically increasing in number– Damaging native plants and animals– Spreading exotic species– Soil erosion– Agricultural damage– Water pollution– Attacks on walkers

BUT…research undertaken and possible solutions tried

Source: Author, 2010

Self-sufficiency and sustainable development

2008/9: annual aid budget from UK: £16.4m How much per resident (in 2006)?

Some aid from EU Some parts of ‘Sustainable Development

Plan 2008-2020’ aim for a degree of self-sufficiency; some aspects have been delivered

Construction of new capital city: Little Bay

Little Bay – new capital by 2020?

Get images from: http://www.environmentalassociates.net (planners of Little Bay development) or www.gov.ms

...But the pace of change is slow:

Get images from: http://www.environmentalassociates.net (planners of Little Bay development)

Strategic Goals of the Montserrat Sustainable Development Plan, 2008-2020

Economic Management: An environment that fosters prudent economic management, sustained growth, a diversified economy and the generation of employment opportunities

Human Development: Enhanced human development and improved quality of life for all people on Montserrat

Environmental Management and Disaster Mitigation: Montserrat’s natural resources conserved within a system of environmentally sustainable development and appropriate strategies for disaster mitigation

Governance: An efficient, responsive and accountable system of governance and public service

Population: A sustainable populationSource: Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, Government

of Montserrat (no date)

Will Montserrat ‘rise from the ashes’?

Initial shock has passed Volcano shows few signs of ceasing its activity soon Impact is profound and long-lasting Difficult journey to self-sufficiency The residents of this ‘little island’ have enough

strength and perseverance to tame the powerfully destructive effects of their ‘big volcano’ – perhaps the biggest challenge will be an economic one

Acknowledgements

Dr Caroline Neuberg, Prof Jurgen Neuberg, Seismic Schools Initiative, the Royal Society, interviewees on the island

2012 visit?Two key references:www.mvo.mswww.gov.msContact me:dga@fulneckschool.co.uk