What is your Chance to be a Millionaire?

Research IndicatesMillionaire households constituted roughly seven percent of all American households1OR40% of Americans with incomes between $25,000 and $35,000 -- and nearly one-half of respondents with an income of $15,000 to $25,000 -- thought winning the lottery would give them their retirement nest egg. 2

Which Camp do you want to be in and how do you do it?Part of the 7% or those hoping and praying to win the lottery?

What is an Amateur Investor?Can an Amateur Investor Make a Million Dollars?

An Amateur Investor can also be a Sophisticated Investor by knowing the Sophisticated Techniques.

The Professional InvestorThe Professional Investor can also make a Million DollarsThe Professional Investor is also a Sophisticated InvestorHow can you tell the difference between an Amateur and a Professional Investor?There is one very important tool that the Professional Investor has that the Amateur Investor does not. What is it?

Your Investment VehicleThe Rear View MirrorThe Side View WindowsThe Windshield

How to Drive Your Investment VehicleRear View Mirror - 2% of the time

Side View - 3% of the Time

Wind Shield - 95% of the time

Any other way and you will Crash

The Amateur vs. The ProfessionalAmateurLooks Through the Rear View Mirror 50% of the timeLooks Through the Side View 50% of the timeDoes not look through the WindshieldProfessionalLooks Through the Rear View Mirror 2% of the TimeLooks Through the Side View 3% of the TimeLooks Through the Windshield 95% of time time

Can you tell who is the Professional and Who is the Amateur?

There is only ONE Way!

The Up MarketEveryone Makes Money, regardless of your skill and knowledgeExample:Year 2000 buy an investment property almost anywhere in the US you will make more than 100% ReturnThe Amateur and Professional look alike

The Down MarketThe Amateur Loses his moneyThe Professional continues to make more moneyWHY?The difference is the way they "Drive their Investment Vehicle"Amateur will CrashProfessional will avoid the Obstacles

Stock X: When should you have invested andWhen should you have been cautious?

What would the Amateur and the ProfessionalInvestor do from 1990 to Present?

Stock X is Really THIS!

Market Trend: Insider TradingNow they are cashing in. Executives and directors at many of the nation's largest development companies sold stock at a record pace this summer. Insiders at the 10 largest home builders by market value, including D. R. Horton, KB Home, Toll Brothers and M.D.C. Holdings, have sold nearly 11 million shares, worth $952 million, so far this year. - Summer 20053

Market Trends, The WINDSHIELDThe Professional Drives the Investment Vehicle by looking through the WindShield (or researching Market Trends) 95% of the timeThe Professional AVOIDS or even Capitalizes on Obstacles while the Amateur Crashes their Investment Vehicle

THE WINDSHIELD = PREDICTIONIf you can predict it, you can profit from it!REPEAT 3 more TIMES!If you can predict it, you can profit from it!If you can predict it, you can profit from it!If you can predict it, you can profit from it!

Prediction = Risk ManagementIf you can predict it, you can keep your profits!Repeat 3 more times!It is easier to make a Million than to Keep a Million!All of this is TRUE!Memorize!

Market Trends = ECONOMICSYou can buy a Good Investment which will become GREAT if the ECONOMICS is GoodYou can buy a Poor Investment which will become GOOD if the ECONOMICS is GoodYou can buy a GREAT Investment which will become POOR if the ECONOMICS is POOR

DETROIT Case StudyYou are going to Drive your Investment Vehicle in DetroitIn order to Drive your Investment Vehicle without crashing it, What data would you be looking at so that you are seeing through your windshield? (next page)

The US Census

Detroit Case StudyMichigan is HEAVILY DEPENDENT on Transportation Manufacturing!Detroit is the main City for the Big 3 Automotive ManufacturersGeneral Motors, Ford and ChryslerLet's take a look at the 10 year Graph of GM and Ford (what do you think we will see?)

Market Trends - DetroitWhat is the GM 10 Year Chart telling Us?What about the Ford 10 Year Chart?What about the Toyota 5 Year Chart?What should you have done 10 years ago in regards to Investment Properties?

Market Trends - DetroitLet us Look at Housing DataWhere do we find it? Many places but the better ones are:Case Shiller US Index of Home PricesLet us look at the Detroit Market versus the NYC Market

Detroit Market, Case Shiller Index

NYC Metro Area 10 Year Case Shiller Index

The Professional versus the AmateurThe Professional would have sold out of DetroitThe Professional would have switched to New York City10 Year Return for Detroit was only 24% verus 145% in NYC Metro.NOTE: NYC itself was much more than 145%

Market Trend BreakdownGlobalIncrease demand in China and India causing Oil prices and Building Material to SpikeNationalFederal Reserve Lowering Fed. Funds Rate to combat upcoming RecessionCityEmployment, multiple Industries (or single industry), Tourism, etc.

Market Trend BreakdownNeighborhoodGentrificationNeighborhood Amenities such as Transportation, Parks, etc.Large Projects such as Atlantic Yards, East Side Access, Sunnyside LIRR connectionNumber of Foreclosures, delinquencies, Crime, etc.Trendy, Starbucks, Artists, etc.

Market Trend BreakdownBlockImportant in Major Cities due to extreme densityNorth of Canal versus South of CanalAcross from a Park (such as Central Park)Near a SubwayEtc.

Bibliographyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millionairehttp://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/RetirementandWills/RetireEarly/WhyPoorPeopleWinTheLottery.aspxhttp://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/business/04builders.html?_r=1&oref=slogin