What it Takes to Make History

What it Takes to Make History

Torbjorn BjeringHo-Jung Hsiao

Eric GriffinChun-Hung LinGulsah GunencGaoyuan Tian

Laura Braeutigam

Torbjorn BjeringHo-Jung Hsiao

Eric GriffinChun-Hung LinGulsah GunencGaoyuan Tian

Laura Braeutigam

Table of ContentsTable of Contents

IntroductionBrief SummaryDescriptive StatisticsExploratory Data AnalysisStatistical AnalysisConclusions

IntroductionBrief SummaryDescriptive StatisticsExploratory Data AnalysisStatistical AnalysisConclusions

IntroductionIntroductionA lot goes into winning an

election.There are many factors that can

lead a candidate to victory.A campaign is based on what is

important to the population.A candidate’s image will help

him appeal to many different aspects of society.

A lot goes into winning an election.

There are many factors that can lead a candidate to victory.

A campaign is based on what is important to the population.

A candidate’s image will help him appeal to many different aspects of society.

What are we studying?What are we studying?The 2008 Presidential

electionObama vs. McCain

How do different aspects of society influence the result of the election?

Why do they affect the outcome?

The 2008 Presidential electionObama vs. McCain

How do different aspects of society influence the result of the election?

Why do they affect the outcome?

Why are we studying the election?Why are we studying the election?Monumental event in our

nation’s historySomething that affects all

AmericansAbundant accurate dataRecently occurred

Monumental event in our nation’s history

Something that affects all Americans

Abundant accurate dataRecently occurred

How are we studying the election?How are we studying the election?Extracting data from U.S. Census

Bureau50 states plus District of ColumbiaDC is an outlier!

Evaluating exploratory dataLSM Regression

GenderAgeFinancial StatusEducationReligionRace

Extracting data from U.S. Census Bureau50 states plus District of ColumbiaDC is an outlier!

Evaluating exploratory dataLSM Regression

GenderAgeFinancial StatusEducationReligionRace

Brief SummaryBrief SummaryObama won the election.Who support Obama?

WomenYounger votersVoters with higher

income Highly educated

votersJewish votersMinority groups

Obama won the election.Who support Obama?

WomenYounger votersVoters with higher

income Highly educated

votersJewish votersMinority groups

Exploratory Data AnalysisExploratory Data AnalysisAn approach to analyze data

for the purpose of formulating hypotheses worth testing, complementing the tools of conventional statistics for testing hypotheses.

Analyzing scatter diagrams to see if we can use linear regression

An approach to analyze data for the purpose of formulating hypotheses worth testing, complementing the tools of conventional statistics for testing hypotheses.

Analyzing scatter diagrams to see if we can use linear regression

Descriptive StatisticsDescriptive StatisticsDependent Variable

Obama election percentageIndependent Variable

Minority PopulationBlackNative AmericanHispanicAsian

Dependent VariableObama election percentage

Independent VariableMinority Population

BlackNative AmericanHispanicAsian

Independent Variable Gender Age Religion

ChristianJewish

EducationPersons with Bachelor's Degree or More

Financial StatusUnemployment RatePersonal Income Per Capita in Current

DollarsEnergy Consumption Per CapitaHomeownership Rate

Independent Variable Gender Age Religion

ChristianJewish

EducationPersons with Bachelor's Degree or More

Financial StatusUnemployment RatePersonal Income Per Capita in Current

DollarsEnergy Consumption Per CapitaHomeownership Rate

Descriptive Statistics cont.Descriptive Statistics cont.

Statistical AnalysisStatistical AnalysisAnalyzing collected data for the

purposes of summarizing information to make it more usable and/or making generalizations about a population.

Analyzing collected data for the purposes of summarizing information to make it more usable and/or making generalizations about a population.

Obama vs. MinorityObama vs. Minority

Effect of minority groups are positive. Asian is more supportive to Obama than

other groups. All coefficients except Hispanic and

Native are significant.

Effect of minority groups are positive. Asian is more supportive to Obama than

other groups. All coefficients except Hispanic and

Native are significant.

Minority = 100-white

Obama vs. MinorityObama vs. Minority

Blacks

DC

Minority (%)

Blacks (%)

Minority

DC

Obama vs. GenderObama vs. Gender

Women are more supportive to Obama than men.

Women are more supportive to Obama than men.

Obama vs. GenderObama vs. Gender

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

46 47 48 49 50 51 52

MALE

OB

AM

A

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

48 49 50 51 52 53 54

FEMALE

OB

AM

A

DC DC

(Male %)

(Female %)

Male Female

Obama vs. AgeObama vs. Age

All groups of ages have positive effect on Obama vote. The positive effect is decreasing with increase of age.

All groups of ages have positive effect on Obama vote. The positive effect is decreasing with increase of age.

Obama vs. ReligionObama vs. Religion

Christian voters tend not to vote Obama, but not significant.

Jewish voters are supportive to Obama.

Christian voters tend not to vote Obama, but not significant.

Jewish voters are supportive to Obama.

Highly educated voters tend to vote Obama.Highly educated voters tend to vote Obama.

Obama vs. EducationObama vs. Education

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

10 20 30 40 50

BACHELOR

OBA

MA

Bachelor (%)

Obama vs. UnemploymentObama vs. Unemployment

Jobless voters seem to be supportive to Obama, but the coefficient is not significant.

Jobless voters seem to be supportive to Obama, but the coefficient is not significant.

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

UNEMPLOYMENT

OB

AM

A

OBAMA vs. UNEMPLOYMENT

Unemployment (%)

Obama vs. IncomeObama vs. Income

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000

INCOME

OB

AM

A

OBAMA vs. INCOME

Income $Voters with higher income are

supportive to Obama.Voters with higher income are

supportive to Obama.

Obama vs. Financial StatusObama vs. Financial Status

Voters with higher income and less energy consumption are supportive to Obama.

Coefficients on Homeowner and Unemployment are not significant.

Voters with higher income and less energy consumption are supportive to Obama.

Coefficients on Homeowner and Unemployment are not significant.

ConclusionsConclusionsSurprising

resultsVoters with

higher income are supportive to Obama.

Coefficient for African American voters is lower than expected

High energy users and home owners were not supportive

Surprising resultsVoters with

higher income are supportive to Obama.

Coefficient for African American voters is lower than expected

High energy users and home owners were not supportive

More ConclusionsMore Conclusions

Expected resultsWomen Younger people

Educated people

Minorities

Expected resultsWomen Younger people

Educated people

Minorities