what lies over the horizon? scenarios to the future of social sciences in the era of digitization...
Post on 21-Oct-2014
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The year was 2040 when the social sciences transformed into something really unrecognizable. The social science catalogue now includes courses like coding and decoding, myth and magic, food futures, reality engineering, micropolitics, macrohistory and macrofutures, decolonization, re-creativity and re-invention, foresight studies, big history and galaxies, robotics and space sciences, spirituality and social transformations, etc. This was the tip of the iceberg. The climate of uncertainty and the explosive success of digital technology not to mention some game-changing events like the Occupy Wall Street, the discovery of the Higgs-boson like particle, the emergence of culture as driver of new economic growth among others continue to influence our ways of knowing and re-perceiving the social sciences. Recently, many academics have speculated about the future of the social sciences. The shape of things to come will certainly come in a digitized content and more according to experts. This paper explored some scenarios on the futures of the social sciences. It tracked emerging developments and explored the possible, plausible, and preferred social science scenarios in 2040. It employed the futures triangle and archetypal scenario (business as usual, best case, worst case, outliers) methods developed by Sohail Inayatullah and Peter Schwartz respectively.The purpose of this paper is to anticipate events and leverage the changes shaping the future of the social sciences.TRANSCRIPT
What Lies Over the Horizon? Scenarios to the Future of the Social Sciences
Shermon CruzUniversity Center for Research and Development Northwestern University;Center for Engaged Foresight
World Social Science Forum 2013Palais De CongresMontreal, Quebec, Canada
Outline
background, rationale, research question research methods – futures triangle, scenario archetypes, INSPECT methodkey drivers / drivers of change / influencers scenarios to the future of the social sciences conclusion
knowledge divides: homogenous / singular
knowledge multiplies: heterogenous / plural
Closed digitization: Commercial
Open digitization:
Public
What is the futures of the social sciences in the era of digitization and social transformations?What are the emerging trends, the pulls, the pushes and weights that might limit or transform the future of the social sciences?
What are the possible, plausible and preferred social science scenarios in the year 2040? What might the social science discipline look like in those years?What lies over the horizon?
Defining, vision, competing images; leads us forward
Deep structures, barriers Quantitative drivers of change, the news headlines, trends
Game changers, wildcardsBest possible circumstances, transform
Current trends worsens Status quo continues
scenarios are written narratives of alternative environments designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in specific strategic issues (Ogilvy, Schwartz, 1998)
scenarios are written narratives of alternative environments designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in specific strategic issues(Glenn, 2013).
Similar to writing a movie script (Schwartz, 1998).
Royal Dutch Shell
Rand Corporation
National Intelligence Council
World Economic Forum
Etc.
Why futures methods?
“The future is an asset, a resource, a narrative waiting to be employed”
Sohail Inayatullah, 2013
Imagining/creating alternative futures could make our present remarkable, significant
Formulating the scenario worlds
It used the proceedings of the 1999 and 2010 World Social Science Report and navigated the World Wide Web for relevant and related print and digital texts (journals, books, articles, reports, essays, speeches, blogs) that explored and/or imagined (logical, critical and creative) the future of the social sciences.
scanned possible futures using the Google search, Google scholar, books, manuscripts, visions, and other scenario documents/report (print and digital) to peer into what the future could look like in 2040.INSPECT (innovations, nature, society, political, economic, cultural, technology) to scan and identify trends, drivers and emerging issues
We narrowed our list and deliberated on its importance and uncertaintyWe identified the drivers based on our assumption that they are the most significant shapers to the future of the social sciences. We organized them into constellations and were used as building blocks to create our four alternative social science future worlds.
Purpose
not to ‘predict the future’ but rather to anticipate events and leverage the changes driving the field’s futureto offer an alternative view and participate in the global conversation to create meaningful debates and engage social scientists, academics and practitioners to a broad range of futures questions and conversations
to challenge our fundamental assumptions, probe received wisdom, reframe our visions and liberate our attitude towards the future of the social sciences
There’s No Line on the Horizon: Push, Pushes and Weights of Social Science Futures
setting the scene:
enter the world of 2040
drivers of change / influencers
epistemic complexity
digitization
University futures
Sustainability
Perception of the future
Emerging technology
rebuilding the mosaic damaged social sciences
multiplex conception gaming the social sciences
Rebuilding the Mosaic: universal, historical, global
“Modernity is the key theme and condition of the social sciences…this situation has now become global; even those who may want to reject it or modify this predicament cannot avoid seeing themselves confronted with the modernist claim. Given its European and American roots, there is always the risk that this concern with modernity will be cast in parochial terms.”
Peter Wagner, 1999
Social science course catalogue in 2040
Philosophy I, II and III
World History I, II and III
Civilizations I, II and III
Ethics I, II and III
Government and Politics I, II and III
Self, Culture and Society I, II and III
Social Science Inquiry I, II and III
Classics of Social, Political and Economic Thought I, II and III
Colonization and Western Civilizations
Introduction to World Civilizations I, II and III
Introductions to Linguistics I, II and III
The Complex Problem of World Hunger
Problems in the study of Gender, Sexuality
Anthropology of Museums
Damaged social sciences: crisis prone, bad, fragmented
“So what’s to be done now that big trouble has finally arrived on so many fronts? To be brutally honest, we have no idea and even less advice.”
Richard Watson and Oliver Freeman, 2012
Damaged social
sciences
Unemployed social scientists
Unequal degree of internationalization
Knowledge fragmentation
Donor driven/ brain drain
Lack of pluralism and foresight
Knowledge/digital divides
Budget cuts/ closure
2040 Social Science Courses (Fragmented)
‘University’
(singular, universal, individual oriented, homogenous,
Eurocentric, positivist)
‘Multiversity’
(diverse, plural, people oriented, heterogenous
indigenization, decolonized)
Psychology Folk Psychology / Cross-cultural psychology
Sociology Arabic Sociology / African Sociology / Chinese Sociology /
Indian Sociology / Malay Sociology, etc.
Philosophy Arabic Philosophy / Indian Philosophy / Chinese Philosophy /
Malay Philosophy / African Philosophy, etc.
Political Thought and Human Identity Arabic Thought and Identity / Indian Thought and Identity /
Chinese Thought and Identity / Malay Thought and Identity /
African Thought and Identity, etc.
Universal Human rights Culture/Context based human rights / Standpoint
Anthropology Europology
Multiplex Conception: hybrid, plural, integrated
“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”
“The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.”
trans-disciplinary
everywhere is the center /
beyond the ivory tower /pluralized
useful - personal, policy,
movements
Great scopes
massive increases and
demands
open access
Gaming the social sciences: gamed, roboticized, space and foresight driven
“Video games are one step before a whole other virtual universe”
Vin Diesel
Gaming
Post-disciplinary
Occupied
Gamed/virtualized
Transmedia
Robotics / Space Driven
Open access
Spirituality
Aging
Social Science Catalogue in a Gaming Scenario
Reality Engineering Coding and Decoding
Home Economics Iteration Mapping
Myth and Magic Micropolitics Macrohistory
Futures Studies Video Literacy
Play Photography Negotiation Translation
Food Robotics
Spirituality and Social TransformationBig History and Galaxies
Decolonization
Conclusion
- We have created plausible four alternative social science future environments - rebuilding the mosaic, damaged, multiplex, gamed.
- Backcasting method and futures wheel analysis must be applied to put more content and provide specifics/actionable items – policies, program of actions, outline to achieved a preferred/ aspired future (a survey, an FI or FGD is appropriate here)
- The present is a conduit to the four alternative futures. Scenarios are dynamic, they are pathways to alternative futures
To change the future, we have to change the core narrative (Inayatullah, 2013)Serves as a mental model, images of an alternative future environmentsCulture eats strategy for breakfast (Inayatullah, 2013) . We have to analyze the future of the social sciences in multiple spaces / perspectives (scenarios at the local, regional is even better – contextual, grounded, situated). Not predictions but alternative narratives of social science futures Re-perceive the social sciences
Maraming Salamat! (Thank you!)