1 © 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.

What The Future Holds…

New Airframes &

Materials

UAVs

Traffic Growth

New Business Models

TRACON Complexity TFM Under Uncertainty

New CNS Technologies, RNP/RNAV

Distributed Information Sharing

Image: John BaldockRole & Responsibility Changes

Document Number Here© 2006 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.2

How Do We Certify Software in The “Web 2.0” Era

• The Web is the “platform”– Web services, Service-

Oriented Architectures• Data as the driving force

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Web_2.0

• Net-centricity – architecture of participation• Leveraging the “long tail”

• The end of the software adoption cycle – “the perpetual beta”

Document Number Here© 2006 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.3

Software Is Increasingly Playing Critical Roles in Decision Making

En Route

Transition

Terminal

•Automated, high-precision operations with RNP/RNAV routes

•Additional routes to increase flexibility, efficiency, and capacity

• Responsibility for problem prediction moves from controller to automation

• Controllers resolve problems with automated resolution assistance

• Routine ATC tasks are automated

• Problems are predicted and resolved strategically

• Time-based metering used to manage traffic to constrained resources

•Automation assists with sequencing, merging, and spacing

•En route flow management directives smooth transition

Document Number Here© 2006 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.4

The Controller Is No Longer the “Backup”

Document Number Here© 2006 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.5

ADS-B: Transforming Both the Aircraft Role and the Surveillance Infrastructure

IMCMerging and

Spacing

ContinuousDescent

Approach

CDTI Assisted

Visual Separation Approach

Document Number Here© 2006 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.6

The National Airspace System (NAS): A “Complex” System

18,292 Public & Private Airports

50,000 Airport Operations per day

700,000,000 Passengers per year

125 Billion Revenue Passenger Miles per year15,000 Controllers

36,000 Systems

171 TRACONs

20 En Route Centers

600,000+ Active Pilots

280,000 Aircraft

130,000 En Route Operations per day