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A comparison of MCPS trends with that of the State ofMaryland and selected school systems

Analysis based on State of Maryland data available at

http://www.mdreportcard.org/

&

MCPS data available at

http://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/sharedaccountability/

http://www.mdreportcard.org/http://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/sharedaccountability/http://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/sharedaccountability/http://www.mdreportcard.org/

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MCPS Grade 8 Math scores showed a 12.9% gain in Advanced

In comparison

Howard County Grade 8 Math scores showed a 22.1% gain inAdvanced

Maryland Grade 8 Math scores showed a 15.7% gain inAdvanced

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Overall MCPS Gains were about half that of HowardCounty

HCPS began by trailing MCPS in the % studentsscoring Advanced but OVERTOOK MCPS in 2006

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6.6 point gain in % advanced

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From 2003-2008 (the period chosen by Dr. Scott) MCPS trailed

Howard County in the % of students scoring Advanced in Grade 8reading

MCPS Grade 8 Reading scores showed a 11.3% gain in Advancedto 49.1% of test takers

In comparison

Howard County Grade 8 Reading scores showed a 6.6% gainin Advanced to 52.8% of test takers

MCPS showed gains but failed to overtake the Howard County

lead

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Dr. Stacy Scott makes a number ofarithmetic errors in his analysis.

For example, he reports on hisSlide 9: 40.6-26.7=12.9 (actually13.9) and on his Slide 11, he reportsthe number of Asian Americanstudent at an Advanced level as 65(actual 66.1), etc. This

presentation reflects accuratefigures.

More than 60% of students with Advanced MSAMath scores got SAT math scores of 550 orhigher. Dr. Stacy Scott, MCPS

This conclusion, presented withoutevidence, if true, would predict aincrease in the percentage ofstudents with SAT math scores of

550 or higher over the reportedperiod.

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Testing this unsubstantiated hypothesisIf true we will see

Annual changes in SAT scores following the trend ofannual changes in % of students scoringAdvanced in grade

8 MSA Math

Since 2003, the percentage of students scoring Advanced ingrade 8 math has been increasing (see last slide).

MCPS has not released annual data of students with MathSAT scores of 550 or higher. The claim is unsubstantiated.

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Statistical Means reported by MCPS for SAT Math scores have not improved over thereported period. MCPS fails to report other statistical factors rendering meaningfulconclusions difficult if not impossible.

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The two MCPS explanations for declining

SAT scores are:Why are SAT scores declining? More students are taking the SAT withoutadequate preparation. Dr. Stacy Scott, MCPS.

Superintendent Jerry D. Weast attributed the decline to the county's growing

economic diversity. The number of students taking the test who qualified forfederal meal subsidies, an index of poverty, has increased by almost half since2006. Those students, as a group, dragged down the county average. There is awell-established link between family income and average SAT score, which owes

partly to the ability of affluent families to pay for tutors and multiple test-takingsessions. Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-

dyn/content/article/2008/09/03/AR2008090301602.html?nav=rss_education)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Jerry+Weast?tid=informlinehttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/03/AR2008090301602.html?nav=rss_educationhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/03/AR2008090301602.html?nav=rss_educationhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/03/AR2008090301602.html?nav=rss_educationhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/03/AR2008090301602.html?nav=rss_educationhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/03/AR2008090301602.html?nav=rss_educationhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Jerry+Weast?tid=informlinehttp://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Jerry+Weast?tid=informline

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Cannot be %. Seemsto be Mean score

Dr. Scotts slides 14 & 15

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Dr. Scott fails to establish a link between the twovariables he attempts to relate.

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MCPS SAT TRENDS Throughout the 80s MCPS SAT averages steadily increased over

national averages.

In recent years there has been a declining trend in this lead.

The trend has NOT been linked to increasing diversity (the Weastexplanation)

The trend has NOT been linked to Math preparation levels (the Scottexplanation)

Recent years have seen high turnover among administrators and the

appointment of unqualified personnel.