when myth meets reality: the role of third parties in international conflict jonathan wilkenfeld...
TRANSCRIPT
When Myth Meets Reality: The Role of Third Parties in International
Conflict
Jonathan WilkenfeldDepartment of Government and Politics
Center for International Development and Conflict ManagementUniversity of Maryland
Ministry of Foreign AffairsDecember 2009
Myth• Diverse societies are culturally dynamic, facilitating individual
and collective identity, and fostering creativity, imagination, and invention.
Reality
• Diverse societies are culturally dynamic, facilitating individual and collective identity, and fostering creativity, imagination, and invention.
• But 1 in every 7 people is a member of an ethnic minority suffering some form of discrimination (political, economic, social or cultural).
Conditions Conducive to Ethnic Terrorism
• Organizations professing a democratic ideology are significantly less likely engage in terrorism
• Organizations with the following characteristics are more likely to engage in terrorism:– Separatism– Rhetoric justifying violence– Foreign Support– State Repression
• Organizations that do not have a democratic ideology and have all the factors above have an 89% likelihood of engaging in terrorism
Global Ethnic Militancy
Countries with at least one militant, ethnically based organization
Myth
• The international community has played an increasingly important role in the settlement of armed conflicts.
Global Trends in Active Conflict, 1946-2007
Number of Conflicts
Reality
• The international community has played an increasingly important role in the settlement of armed conflicts.
• But of the 39 conflicts that became active in the last 10 years, 31 were conflict recurrences – instances of resurgent, armed violence in societies where conflict had been largely dormant for at least a year.
New and Recurring Conflict, 1946-2007Number of Conflict Onsets
Recently Terminated Conflicts and Prospects for Recurrence, 1946-2007
Number of Recently Terminated Conflicts
Myth
• The international community has been successful both in increasing the pot of international development aid, and in directing it to the places where it is needed the most.
Reality
• The international community has been successful both in increasing the pot of international development aid, and in directing it to the places where it is needed the most.
• But development aid is outpaced by the economic cost of state instability, fragility, and failure by a factor of almost 4 to 1.
Costs of State Failure
Global estimated cost of state failure: $270 billion** Anke Hoeffler, Peace and Conflict 2010
Ranking States on Risk of Instability, 2008-2010
Highest Risk
High Risk
Moderate Risk
Some Risk
Low Risk
Crisis Vulnerability
Myths• The significant increase in the number of
democracies among the states of the international system, coupled with a decrease in the number of autocracies, bodes well for a more tranquil international system – the democratic peace.
Reality• The significant increase in the number of
democracies among the states of the international system, coupled with a decrease in the number of autocracies, bodes well for a more tranquil international system – the democratic peace.
• But the transition from autocracy to democracy is the period most fraught with potential instability and conflict.
Trends in Democratization, 1946-2007Number of Countries
Prescriptions
• Monitoring and early warning
Peace and Conflict Ledger
• What does the Peace and Conflict Ledger measure?
• The risk of an instability event occurring in a country in the next three years.
Some Key Details
• The focus is on how structural attributes of states influence the risk of instability
• Four domains of government activity (economics, politics, security, and social)
• Estimated a statistical model on data from 1950-2003 (training data)
• Obtain country risk estimates by inputting 2007 values for all countries
Indicators – The Usual SuspectsEconomics Politics Security Social
GDP per capita Extent of factionalism State repression of citizens
Male secondary enrollment
GDP annual growth rate
Citizen participation in selecting gov’t
Size of military budget Infant Mortality
GDP 3-year growth rate
Gov’t revenues as % of GDP
Number of active armed personnel
Access to water supplies/ sanitation
CPI annual change Duration of present regime
Peace Duration Youth literacy rates
Primary commodity dependence
Regime Consistency Conflict in contiguous states
Immunization rates
Ratio of trade to GDP Level of Democracy Conflict in region Male/female literacy ratio
Poverty rates Executive Constraints Number of IDPs Cultural or religious discrimination
Change in foreign investment
Legislative Effectiveness
Intensity of internal armed conflicts
Male/female life expectancy ratio
Risks of Instability, 2008-2010
Significant Increase in Risk
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO• Transition to partial democracy• Poor performance on other indicators
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO• Transition to partial democracy• Poor performance on other indicators
BURUNDI• Democratic transition begins in 2005• Renewed fighting in neighboring DRC (2007)
BURUNDI• Democratic transition begins in 2005• Renewed fighting in neighboring DRC (2007)
NIGERIA• Renewed fighting in neighboring Chad (2005) and Niger (2007)
NIGERIA• Renewed fighting in neighboring Chad (2005) and Niger (2007)
MAURITANIA• Tenuous democratic transition begins in 2005• Continued low-intensity violence in Mali and Algeria
MAURITANIA• Tenuous democratic transition begins in 2005• Continued low-intensity violence in Mali and Algeria
Sources of Increased Risk?
Democratization
Recurring Armed Conflict
New and Recurring Conflict, 1946-2007Number of Conflict Onsets
Recently Terminated Conflicts and Prospects for Recurrence, 1946-2007
Number of Recently Terminated Conflicts
Conclusion
• Devastating costs of state failure• Diagnostic tools for policy-makers to support
effective policies to mitigate conflict risks
Prescriptions
• Monitoring and early warning• Intervention matching circumstances
Third Party Intervention
• Mediation as a special case
Mediation in Crisis - Styles
• Facilitation: act as a channel– Helps reduce uncertainty– Helps reduce perceptions of mutual hostility
• Formulation: suggest/coordinate solutions– Helps by setting focal points– Helps by highlighting areas of compromise
• Manipulation: offer incentives (+ and -)– In particular: security guarantees– Helps by changing real costs and benefits
Mediation in Crisis
• Outcomes of interest:– Mutual compromise– Formal agreement– Post-crisis tension reduction
Results: Mediation Style, Compromise, and Agreements
• Manipulation has largest positive effect on crisis termination point outcomes– Especially when it involves arrangements for or
provision of security guarantees• Formulation has slightly lesser but still
powerful positive effect• Facilitation has little effect
– Pure facilitation has negative effect on compromise
Results: Mediation Style and Post-Crisis Tensions
• Formulation has largest positive effect on post-crisis tension reduction
• Facilitation has lesser but still significant positive effect
• Manipulation is ineffective at reducing tensions, post-crisis– Even when security guarantees are involved. This
finding contrasts w/ previous studies.