when will sustainable economic recovery really begin?...italy’s new car sales fell by a further...

DRIVING FORWARD TOGETHER

whiteclarkeauto.com

When Will Sustainable Economic RecoveryReally Begin?

WHITE CLARKE AUTOMOTIVE SOLUTIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CENTRE FOR AUTOMOTIVE MANAGEMENTUNIVERSITY OF BUCKINGHAM

email: [email protected]

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The Centre for Automotive Management University of Buckingham

The Centre for Automotive Management (CAM) at The University of Buckingham Business School prepares an independent Quarterly Review of the European and UK automotive industries set against the prevailing economic and political environment, reflecting current but objective sentiment.

Given the speed of change in the economic and political environment, the points of view may, at times, be overtaken by events. The views expressed are those of the Buckingham Automotive Team and are not necessarily shared by the wider automotive community.

WHEN WILL SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC RECOVERY REALLY BEGIN?

Contents

Introduction 4

European New Car Registrations 5

Changing Car Parc 9

The UK Economy 10

Banking Crises 14

The UK Automotive Industry 14

Car Parc 16

Used Car Market 17

Vehicle Manufacture 17

Some Conclusions 18


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Introduction

The view of Europe or Eurozone political leadership has not been very positive during the first half of 2012, perhaps because no group of political leaders have had to face such circumstances before. The sovereign debt crisis persists, and indeed grows with hints of contagion embracing major countries like Spain and Italy. The smaller problems of Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Cyprus seem to have been pushed into the long grass as new problems with new magnitudes emerge. Even China is getting involved.

While Chancellor Merkel has won her critical case with the German Constitutional Court regarding borrowings, the real pain still has to be borne as weaker euro economies are pressured to balance income and expenditure.

Although European Central Bank (ECB) intervention with the promise of supporting the Euro has lifted some gloom, has it merely created more borrowed time to resolve Euro issues without offering a sustainable solution?

At the time of writing many a banker is sitting on the edge of their corporate seats waiting to see if, or perhaps more likely when, Spain seeks an ECB bailout – but that may be a topic for the next Review.

Many a sceptic would claim the urgency to resolve the situation has not been helped by the US Federal Reserve Board indicating it will buy $40 billion mortgage bonds every month until the US unemployment starts to drop.

Is it only Germany’s need for an artificially weak Euro to protect its export business that keeps the currency on anything like an even keel?

Global markets and lenders will eventually turn on the Euro unless a sustainable resolution is forthcoming sooner rather than later. The sky is dark with chickens soon coming home to roost.

The underlying concern is Germany will not be able to prop up the Euro unless every country plays the game and introduces a period of austerity to bring spending into line with income rather than rely on borrowing against Germany’s credit rating.


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European New Car Registrations

European new car sales have dropped markedly since the fiscal crisis. Poor industry figures, economic uncertainty, food and fuel inflation, unemployment concerns, credit tightening and contagion have all contributed to the automotive malaise.

Figure 1; European New Car Registrations; 2000 - 2011

Source; ACEA

Europe’s new car registrations peaked at 16 million units in 2007, falling to 14.7 million in 2008. While expensive scrappage schemes propped up new car volumes at 14.5 million in 2009, they fell to 13.8 million in 2010 and 13.6 million in 2011 – some two million units below the five year average before the 2008/2009 economic downturn.

Figure 2 shows the quarterly new car sales trend across the EU; it does not make happy reading.

Figure 2; Quarterly European New Car Registrations; 2010-2012

Source; ACEA

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European New Car Registrations (continued)

There have been attempts to kick start sales through essentially unsustainable cut price deals and wide-spread, scrappage programmes. While the impact of the first round of scrappage has flushed through the industry, as many predicted, the vehicles are not coming back for conventional replacement.

There have been suggestions, at least in France, for a second round of scrappage programmes to help keep car plants running.

– The most depressed major new car markets are Italy and Spain. Italy’s new car sales fell by a further 10.9% to 1.75 million in 2011, three-quarters of a million units lower than the 2.5 million recorded in 2007. Spain’s new car market suffered the biggest drop of the EU’s major markets in 2011, falling 17.7% and 173,956 units to 808,059, around half the level of new car sales reached five years earlier. 2012 figures show no signs of recovery.

– The German market was the most resilient in 2011, its new car sales rising 8.8% to 3.17 million – much in line with 2007’s pre-recession volumes. The French new car market slipped by 2.1% to 2.2 million in 2011, retaining second place in the European new car sales league.

– UK new car market volumes fell 4.4% to 1.94 million in 2011, consolidating third place in the European new car sales table.

European new car volumes continue to weaken in 2012, 7.1% down on the previous year at 8.27 million units for the January to August period. Italy (-19.9%) and Spain (-8.5%) are plunging to new depths, and France’s new car volumes have fallen by 13.4% for the first eight months of the year. Later figures may well be even weaker.

Germany’s and the UK’s new car volumes have fared somewhat better for this period – the former’s down 0.6% and the latter’s 3.3% higher year on year.


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There is a second, perhaps more insidious weakening in the marketplace – a weakening of vehicle mix. Figure 3 shows how the EU new car sales mix has weakened over the past few years, post the banking crisis.

Figure 3; European Passenger Car Segments; 2000 – 2011

Source: ACEA

A couple of points are worth highlighting:

– Since 2000, the small car sector has moved from 32.7% of sales to a market leading 43.2%, passing the lower-medium segment in 2006. Buyers can find ‘essential luxuries’ in a small car once restricted to larger cars.

– The lower-medium segment; has slipped from a leading position of 34.2% in 2005 to a 28.3% share of the market in 2011

– The upper-medium category declined from 15.7% and back to 16.6% of market. Growth of the upper-medium category largely mirrors the decline in the Executive segment from 12.7% to 11.5%, although it had a better patch when it peaked at 14.0% in 2007.

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From an industry and car manufacturers’ viewpoint there are several strategic implications;

– Growth in the small car segment means many units are imported or manufactured in Eastern Europe through growing production in the Czech Republic, Romania and Slovakia. Why are small French models not selling as well?

– Reduction of the Executive segment and growth of upper-medium variants – again a possible trading down post-economic crisis and technical inflation of the upper-medium product segment.

– Even within the individual segments there would appear to be growing differentiation between premium and other products within the segments.

Product downsizing suggests lower absolute prices of new cars, offering lower absolute profit per unit for manufacturers and dealers and, in turn, less absolute revenue earning opportunity as cars pass through their life cycles.

Will the much lower number of units coming to the used car market be in line with market requirements?

Rebalancing the European automotive industries to give a balance between supply and demand has become a political rather than business issue with the multitude of treaties, introduced often as short-term political fixes. However, the time may have come that the issue can no longer be put into the ’too difficult to handle’ file.


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Changing Car Parc

In the glacial timescale of an evolving automotive industry, there are a number of fundamental changes taking place which are perhaps not yet widely recognised.

Figure 4 below represents a change in the size of five year car parcs of the principal players in the European motor industry.

Figure 4; EU15; Change in 5 year car parcs; 2003-2007 versus 2007-2011

Sou

rce; ACEA/Buckingham

The chart shows the significant drop in the size of the parc of younger cars for many major EU players. Serious inroads have been made by new brands and manufacturers as well as the marked impact of lower new car sales of traditional marques.

Such an analysis is perhaps a little unnerving, there are several relevant issues;

– New, typically non-European brands – are widely accepted and many are regarded as value for money in a period of economic downturn.

– Buyers demand more radical models – revolution not evolution – with many innovative models produced by non-traditional players.

– A challenge by a small spectrum of quality European producers to build market share.

It is against this evolving market, with reduced cash flows and challenged profits, that car manufacturers seek to rebuild their positions and deal with an excess of installed manufacturing capacity.

Radical market changes may call for radical rethinking.

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The UK Economy

The United Kingdom economy failed to improve in the second quarter of 2012. Indeed, the 0.5% reduction in GDP versus quarter one has plunged the United Kingdom into it longest sustained recession since the Second World War. The Jubilee, Olympic Games and royal topless exposure may have offered short-term diversions but fundamental problems still have to be resolved.

More than a decade of focusing on financial services as a main industry, and the ‘master of the universe’ syndrome, has left the country with a hollowed-out manufacturing base.

Figure 5; UK’s Growth was Strong Before Economic Crisis

Source; OECD/ONS

Figure 5 shows that, with the exception of Canada, the UK had the highest average annual GDP growth of the G7 countries, averaging 3.1% over 10 years from the end of 1997 to the end of 2007 – significantly higher than France, Germany and Italy for that decade.

Average Annual % Growth Rates Q4 1997 - Q4 2007

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The UK Economy (continued)

Figure 6; UK’s Growth Second Weakest in G7 Group of Countries

Source; OECD/ONS

Figure 6 shows how the UK’s economy is struggling to recover following the end of the first period of recession in 2009, its GDP growing just 0.8% – lagging well behind Germany, Japan and the United States.

Perhaps more concerning than the poor position of the UK economy compared with other advanced economies is the tardy recovery from the most recent recessions compared with the past. The chart in Figure 7 indicates the relative speed of recovery compared with recent recessions.

Figure 7; GDP output level across post-war recessions (Start of recession = 100)

Source; ONS

UK recovery is slower than it has been since records began. Whatever actions government takes appears to have relatively little impact – or the statistics do not have the sensitivity to highlight it.

Recovery % Q3 2009 - Q1 2012

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Figure 8; UK Quarterly GDP; 2005-2012

Source; ONS

Figure 8 shows the UK GDP trend over the past five years, with Quarter one 2012 below the zero mark and the second quarter falling by 0.5% putting the economy into recession for three quarters in succession.

In the third quarter there are various reports emerging of better times ahead while other forecasters predict a recovery in quarter four, others do not expect recovery before 2013.

Figure 9 shows some significant inflation seesawing over the past five years with a nasty, recent kick up in July 2012.

Figure 9 RPI & CPI; 2006-2012

Source; ONS

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The rationale for ongoing poor economic performance is complex, the following points might be considered:

– Weak performance of the European economy; United Kingdom conventionally does more than half its international trade with Europe. Growth outside the EU is starting.

– Government austerity programmes; show signs of a gradual change in policy to allow a managed degree of government infrastructure expenditure. Time will tell – previous good intentions may have put money in place, but little reaches the market while the private sector has created a million new jobs

– Traditional semi-skilled manufacturing jobs do not exist in the numbers they used to in the UK – too many have been exported to low-cost producer nations. However, unemployment does not appear to have increased as fast as expected – are businesses holding on to staff in the anticipation of recovery or are banks not pushing Zombie Companies into liquidation.

The Coalition has promised ‘growth with austerity’, only the latter has so far emerged, and there is Coalition impasse on the way forward. The Governor of the Bank of England has suggested some expansion of the deficit might be justified to support growth in the light of such slow economic recovery.

Equally, social changes, such as extended paternity and maternity leave, are causing SMEs, in particular, much concern with regard to employing younger staff. Extended social benefits are acceptable in a period of strong economic activity, but less so during prolonged austerity.

– SMEs continue to report a shortage of funds from the banks, despite qualitative easing designed to help them. While a further £50billion, has recently been announced bringing the total to £375 billion, this is a double-edged sword. Its impact on long-term interest rates and annuities will encourage a greater number of older people to continue in employment and possibly ‘block promotion’.

– Government has announced another stimulus of £80 billion of cheap money to be made available for investment. One may well be concerned at the distribution of such funds to places where such investment can be used to create wealth and jobs.

– There is some concern regarding banks keeping Zombie companies afloat that may better go into liquidation or be sold so their assets can be recycled and better used elsewhere.

Overall, in terms of simplistic economics, the country is not doing well and its problems are exacerbated by two parties on Coalition – one a traditional party of government and the second a party of utopia and hand wringing.


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Banking Crises

A banking crisis, if that’s all it is, would be manageable; but the UK appears to have several crises running in parallel – as well as a disturbing ethos. Consider them – banking malpractice; collapsed IT systems; Libor rate fixing; mis-selling products – for starters.

Has the traditional British banking industry lost touch with its customer base? Trust is at an all time low. Traditional bank managers have disappeared. From being a looked-up-to profession, banking has sunk to the bottom of the pile in the space of a couple of years – despite the disproportionate rewards.

‘My word is my bond’ has been replaced by the ethics of the rampant ginger tomcat. The concern is sacrifice of longer-term reputational damage on the altar of a ‘short-term profit before everything culture’. Is reputation irrecoverable?

Rumours of a boom in the sale of sackcloth and ashes in the investment banking community would appear to be somewhat premature. There is a serious risk of knee-jerk reaction and the banking system becoming over-regulated.

Estimates suggest that Bank reserves, currently 30% higher than regulators require, and funds held by major companies represent perhaps a trillion pounds of cash. Will this be invested in the UK or abroad?

The UK Automotive Industry

Despite the boost from 285,000 scrappage deals, new car sales fell steeply to 1.99 million units in 2009, and have failed to improve since. 2011 saw new car volumes fall 4.4% to 1.94 million compared with 2010’s figure of 2.03 million units – see Figure 10.

New car volumes remain weak in 2012 – edging up 3.3% on 2011’s low base for the first eight months of the year – still some 15% below 2007’s pre-recession level.

Some forecasters have lifted their full-year 2012 predictions to two million units. The SMMT predicts the UK’s new car market will rise 1.6% to 1.97 million in 2012 – and by a further 1.0% to 1.99 million units in 2013.

The Buckingham Automotive Team is, until clearly proven otherwise, sticking to its ongoing forecast of 1.94 million units for 2012. CAM has a fallback position that if the pound; Euro relationship remains where it is mid year and, if European new car sales do not pick up, European manufacturers may build more right-hand drive cars, and flood the UK market with amazing deals towards year end. A secondary let-out is the number of vehicles being self- and pre-registered within the new car sector.


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The UK Automotive Industry (continued)

Figure 10 illustrates the CAM expectations – the dotted line will be discussed later. The reasons for holding our forecasts at 1.94 million might be summarised as follows:

– Financial crisis; whatever might be claimed, will impact on new car sales. The car is increasingly becoming a ‘financial services product’. Might the current situation offer manufacturers’ finance houses the chance to grow market share as honest brokers selling finance to fund cars, rather than using it as a means to offer a clutch of other services.

– Political uncertainty; has to be regarded at its most toxic at present – not uncertainty between Conservative and Labour but between members of the Coalition. Procrastination and confusion appear to be becoming core competences.

– Overall level of economic activity; which would justify adding to fleets rather than simply replacing, seems to be stifled at present and vehicles currently being retained several months longer.

The list of economic concerns feed into demand for new and used cars.

Figure 10; United Kingdom New Car Sales and Forecasts

Source; SMMT/Buckingham

The relatively modest changes in new car sales hide, as in the case of the European picture commented on previously, a slight shift in the market in the United Kingdom.

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Car Parc

Figure 11 shows a significant drop in four major brands’ (Vauxhall, Ford, Peugeot and Renault) five year car parcs, 2003-2007 versus 2007-2011 – with other well-recognised brands losing significant ground as well.

On the other side of the equation, franchises which have shown a rise in the parc of 0-5 year-old cars are essentially ‘new brands’ – Kia, Hyundai and Skoda. The implications for the industry are significant:

– What can the slipping brands do to redress declining car parcs?

– What changes do declining brands need to take to protect profitability and customer service?

– Can the declining brands form sufficient strategic alliance or introduce new products to counter the downage?

– What actions might rising brands take to continue building their market position – product, brand, distribution, pricing?

The chart is symptomatic of the steep fall in the number of new cars sold in recent years, which has seen the average of cars in the UK car parc accelerate to 7.44 years – its oldest mark for over twenty-five years.

Figure 11; UK Change in 5 Year Car parcs; 2003-2007 vs 2007-2011

Source; SMMT/Buckingham

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Car Parc (continued)

Unless traditional manufacturers can reposition and reinvent themselves and their product offering, collapse in brand loyalty, with price and instant gratification becoming more important than traditional values are on the horizon – closer.

Banks have found, to their cost, that electronics have not offered a panacea – why should it be any different in customer relations management in the automotive industry?

If a ‘new scrappage programme’ was introduced as some commentators suggest, would it be much better if that programme focused on LCVs?

Used Car Market

The used car market is some three times bigger than the new car sector. The message is a simple one; and ‘dealers and manufacturers would be wise not to ignore it’.

The critical issue is that now, and for probably the next 8-10 years, the used car market will be starved of younger, good quality cars due to the decline in new car sales since the recession of 2008/2009.

Look at Figure 6 and consider the ‘new cars that have not been sold’ –signified by the space below the dotted line. Not a scientific concept but it illustrates the issue.

The used car industry has entered ‘the age of the managed supply chain’. Dealers and used car retailers need to establish their used car requirements and plot where there used car supply will come from. This may mean establishing strategic alliances with manufacturers, fleet operators, daily rental companies and leasing companies, to ensure access to adequate used car stocks.

Vehicle Manufacture

To introduce a more positive note into an otherwise gloomy review, UK car trade figures have achieved a net positive balance in terms of value over the past 12 months, the first time since 1975. Output is running at 1.4 million units.

At the time of writing both BMW, MINI and Land Rover Jaguar have announced significant investments and created new employment opportunities with much of the new production earmarked for export.

More of that in the next Quarterly Review.


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Some Conclusions

One hates to sign off with a negative note but the news coming out of China regarding economic development is currently not good. Growth rate, measured slightly differently to the way it is measured in Europe, has slipped back and there have already been two cuts in interest rate. While any mature economy would give their hind teeth for China’s growth in GDP, it is barely enough to keep ahead of the growing population.

The one positive is that the Chinese government will take drastic actions if necessary to protect economic growth and contain any civil unrest – but what might that mean for automotive imports and exports?

The European and UK new and used car markets are under threat from reduced and changing markets which, in turn, are at the mercy of the broader economic situation and the financial services sector.

While there may have been some turn-rounds in the automotive sector, these must, until proven otherwise, be seen as purely short-term movements. New and innovative strategies may be needed to protect and develop market position. Remember, this is now a truly global industry and there are new players preparing to enter – players who may work to very different rules and timescales.

Professor Peter N C CookeProfessor of Automotive ManagementThe University of Buckingham September 2012

DRIVING FORWARD TOGETHER

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when will sustainable economic recovery really begin?...italy’s new car sales fell by a further...

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