Where is Harm’s Way?(Mapping Disaster Risk

in the Philippines)

Department of Environment and Natural Resources

Manila Observatory15 March 2005

Can you guess this hazard?

And this one…

Where does the money go?

Disaster Language

Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability

Risk likelihood of harm, loss, disaster

Hazard physical impact of disturbance

Exposure elements affected by hazard

Vulnerabilitycapacity of community to prepare, absorb, recover from hazard

Risk = H x E x V

Hazards• Natural

– Typhoon– Drought (El Nino)– Earthquake (Tremor, Landslide)– Volcano– Tsunami

• Anthropogenic– Deforestation– Mining– Climate change (historical, projected)

Hazard:Typhoon

Data source: Joint Typhoon Warning Center (1945-2001)

Hazard:Drought(El Nino)

Data source: IPCC Data Distribution Centre-Climate Research Unit

Hazard:Earthquake

Hazard:Landslide(E-quake)

Hazard:Volcano

Hazard:Tsunami

Hazard:Deforestation

Hazard:Mining

Hazard: Climate change (historical rain, temperature)

Source: IPCC Data Distribution Centre-Climate Research Unit

Hazard:Climate change

(projected warming)

Source: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization

Hazard: Climate change (projected rainfall)

Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Exposure

• Population

• Natural habitat

• Conservation areas

• Groundwater

Exposure (Population)

Data source: NSO, (Population in 2000)

Exposure(Natural Habitat)

Exposure (conservation areas)

Exposure (groundwater)

Vulnerability

• Human Development Index– Education– Health– Economy

• Urban centers

• Socio-eco pressures

• Transport

Vulnerability (HDI)

Vulnerability (urban centers)

Vulnerability (socio-eco pressure)

Vulnerability (transport)

Risk

• Typhoon

• Drought (El Nino)

• Earthquake (tremor, landslide)

• Tsunami

• Volcano

• Climate Change (temperature, rainfall)

Risk:Typhoon

Risk:Drought(El Nino)

Risk:Earthquake

Risk:Landslide

(Earthquake)

Risk:Tsunami

Risk:Volcano

Risk:Climate Change (Temperature)

Risk:Climate Change

(Rainfall)

In sum, harm’s way:• Typhoon

– Luzon (north, southeast), Visayas (east)

• Drought (El Nino)– Mindanao (central, west)

• Earthquake (tremor, landslide) + Tsunami– Northwest to southeast diagonal across RP

• Volcano– Luzon (west central, south, southeast), Visayas (central,

east), Mindanao (central)

• Climate Change – Temperature: Mindanao, Visayas (central)– Rainfall: Luzon (central, south, southeast), Visayas (east)