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Image Source: John Ashley, Wikimedia Commons

Who’s moving in? out?Population dynamics in Charlotte

Rebecca Tippett, PhD

109average daily growth of Charlotte metro from April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2015

Source: 2015 Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau


Charlotte Metropolitan Area

1 millionresidents in 2015



2.4 millionresidents in 2015



+4.9%population growth

2010-15


381 metro areas


53 with population >1M


2010-15


13 large (1M+) metros with growth>8.2%


2010-15

8.4% 8.4% 8.5%9.1% 9.4% 9.5%

10.5% 10.6%11.3%

11.8%12.4% 12.7%

16.6%

Las Vegas Oklahoma

City

Seattle Phoenix Charlotte Nashville Dallas Denver San

Antonio

Orlando Houston Raleigh Austin


Charlotte 9th fastest growing large (1M+) metroPopulation growth rate, 2010-2015

0% 50% 100%

Dallas

Phoenix

Houston

Oklahoma City

Las Vegas

Seattle

Denver

San Antonio

Raleigh

Nashville

Charlotte

Austin

Orlando

Net Migration Natural Increase


Net migration main driver of growth across top metrosComponents of population change, 2010-2015

0% 50% 100%

Dallas

Phoenix

Houston

Oklahoma City

Las Vegas

Seattle

Denver

San Antonio

Raleigh

Nashville

Charlotte

Austin

Orlando

Domestic Migration International Migration Natural Increase


Domestic migration 50% or more of growth in 6 metros Components of population change, 2010-2015


Population growth uneven across Charlotte metroPopulation growth rate, 2010-2015

Metro growth = 9.4%

60%65%

70% 73% 73% 75%81%

87% 90%

100%

Mecklenburg Rowan Union Gaston Cabarrus York Iredell Lincoln Lancaster Chester


Net migration main driver of county growth (or loss)Net migration share of population change, 2010-2015

How many net migrants did Charlotte MSA gainbetween 2014-15?

a) 19,665 IRS migration statistics

b) 33,756 Census population estimates

c) 34,448 American Community Survey

d) 37,558 Census population estimatesNet Migration + “Residual”

+268Kinternal moves

89Kmoved out

123Kmoved in

Source: 2015 ACS, U.S. Census Bureau; 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

Who moves?

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Sh

are

of

Mig

ran

t G

rou

p

Age

In-Migrants Out-Migrants Internal Movers

Source: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

Age structure of movers similar, regardless of destination

7%

16%22%

28%12%

24%

23%

20%

20%

40%

45%

49%

Non-Mover Within Region Move In-Migrant Out-Migrant

18-24 25-34

Young adults (18-34) are most likely moversYoung adult share by migration status, 2012-14


89Kmoved out

Source: 2015 ACS, U.S. Census Bureau; 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

123Kmoved in

Source: 2015 ACS, U.S. Census Bureau

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Nu

mb

er

of

Pe

op

le

Age

MSA Mecklenburg

Source: Winkler et al., 2013

Charlotte is an employment destinationNet migration by age, 2000-2010

40%of in-migrants from other

states moved for a job

Source: 2012-2016 CPS, IPUMS-CPS

47%of in-migrants (25-64)have a BA/BS or more


Where do individuals move from?

25% 10% 6%

41% of in-migrants to CharlotteSource: 2012-2014 ACS, IPUMS-USA

But what about all those… ?

7% move from

another country


Top 3?

545Mexico 1,670

India

430China

Top 3 Sending CountriesAverage annual arrivals


Not aPUMA

Image Source: Incacity, Flickr

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

PUMAs

Half of in-migration is to MecklenburgShare of metro in-migrants by PUMA, 2012-14


New arrivals are most concentrated in Charlotte city limitsIn-migrants as share of PUMA population 1 and older, 2012-14


7%

16%22%

28%12%

24%

23%

20%

20%

40%

45%

49%

Non-Mover Within Region Move In-Migrant Out-Migrant

18-24 25-34

Reminder: Young adults (18-34) are most likely moversYoung adult share by migration status, 2012-14


…and they are concentrated in Mecklenburg, RowanYoung adult (18-34) share of in-migrants by PUMA, 2012-14


Reflecting age, in-migrants less likely to own home, have familyShare of households with selected characteristics by migration status, 2012-14

66%

51%

42%

22%

40%

29%

Own Home (HH) Married Have children

Living in Charlotte 1 year ago In-migrants



Homeownership higher outside central city, but still below 66%Homeownership rate of in-migrant households by PUMA, 2012-14

66% among non-in-migrant households


1.2% among non-in-migrant households

4.6% of in-migrants live in large apartment complexesShare of in-migrant households living in apartment complexes with >50 units by PUMA, 2012-14



Married in-migrants more likely in Union, York, and IredellShare of married in-migrant household by PUMA, 2012-14



Presence of children reflects different household structuresShare of in-migrant households with children by PUMA, 2012-14

+268Kinternal moves

Source: 2015 ACS, U.S. Census Bureau

83%of internal moves are

within the same county

Source: 2015 ACS

Intra-county moves:

Source: 2012-2016 CPS, IPUMS-CPS

22% for cheaper housing

18% for better housing

or neighborhood

Net out-flows from Mecklenburg?

Source: 2013-14 IRS SOI

Net out-flows from Mecklenburg to neighbors

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Nu

mb

er

of

Pe

op

le

Age

Cabarrus Union York

Source: Winkler et al., 2013

Neighboring counties are family suburb destinationsNet migration by age, 2000-2010

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